by Aaron Schatz
This week in the FOXSports.com power rankings commentary [1]: The Colts back on top, Edge's historic season, the problem with the Bears, and an afternoon wasted with Tom Lehrer.
Originally, this commentary was going to include some really amazing new research on the wins that define great teams, but we decided to give that its own article tomorrow afternoon. Cool stuff, you're gonna like it.
A reminder that these are the new DVOA ratings with "second-order opponent adjustments." For now, only the 2005 TEAM numbers will have the second-order adjustments. Individual numbers and years before 2005 are still old school for now. There's a lot of new code to be written into the tools I use to create my numbers and tables, and doing the second-order opponent adjustments manually each week until the coding is done will take a lot of time. We'll include the first-order numbers each week for comparison purposes, but I haven't had a chance to get those onto the tables yet.
FO readers may remember that last week, when I re-did the opponent adjustments, I wrote the following:
The next thing on the to do list, if I can get time, is to test which is better for forecasting future performance: DVOA, weighted DVOA, estimated wins, or "weighted" estimated wins.
Well, I found the time this weekend and did the a very quick test, based on trying to predict the results of Weeks 12-17 based on ratings through Week 11. Based on this test, weighted DVOA was slightly more accurate than either estimated wins or "weighted" estimated wins (i.e. the estimated wins formula using weighted DVOA instead of regular DVOA). This makes some sense, because estimated wins was not created to be predictive -- it was created to be explanatory, to answer the question, "Why is team X winning more games than DVOA might indicate?" Now, I could work on a formula for estimated wins that was supposed to be predictive, but I won't have time in the next few weeks. So for now, we continue to use Weighted DVOA for the FOXSports.com Power Rankings, and Estimated Wins is just another tool in the toolbox that we can use to analyze teams and matchups.
Offense, defense, special teams, quarterbacks now updated. Other positions coming soon.
Once again, further commentary is here on FOXSports.com [1].
* * * * *
These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 12 weeks of 2005, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [2].)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver/Mexico City) and week of season.
WEIGHTED DVOA [3] represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games. This is the statistic used for the FOXSports.com Power Rankings. WEIGHTED DVOA for offense, defense, and special teams is available on those separate pages.
IMPORTANT: Beginning with Week 12 of 2005, DVOA is based on second-order opponent adjustments. Until other years are updated with this new system, only first-order DVOA (second table) can be compared to previous seasons.
As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
W-L |
WEIGHTED DVOA |
RANK |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 1 | IND | 39.4% | 3 | 11-0 | 40.6% | 1 | 32.5% | 2 | -12.4% | 6 | -5.5% | 31 |
| 2 | CIN | 38.2% | 1 | 8-3 | 35.1% | 3 | 29.8% | 3 | -7.5% | 11 | 1.0% | 14 |
| 3 | DEN | 38.1% | 2 | 9-2 | 40.2% | 2 | 28.1% | 4 | -10.2% | 9 | -0.1% | 19 |
| 4 | SD | 33.8% | 4 | 7-4 | 31.9% | 4 | 36.4% | 1 | 3.2% | 21 | 0.7% | 16 |
| 5 | NYG | 31.0% | 6 | 7-4 | 30.6% | 5 | 9.6% | 9 | -12.8% | 5 | 8.6% | 2 |
| 6 | JAC | 26.3% | 5 | 8-3 | 26.7% | 6 | 5.2% | 13 | -18.6% | 2 | 2.5% | 9 |
| 7 | KC | 21.0% | 11 | 7-4 | 22.8% | 7 | 17.0% | 6 | -5.8% | 14 | -1.8% | 25 |
| 8 | PIT | 20.1% | 7 | 7-4 | 18.4% | 9 | 4.2% | 14 | -18.2% | 3 | -2.3% | 27 |
| 9 | SEA | 19.4% | 8 | 9-2 | 17.9% | 11 | 24.4% | 5 | 5.7% | 22 | 0.7% | 15 |
| 10 | DAL | 17.3% | 10 | 7-4 | 19.2% | 8 | 3.4% | 15 | -12.3% | 7 | 1.6% | 13 |
| 11 | WAS | 16.6% | 12 | 5-6 | 18.4% | 10 | 7.0% | 12 | -11.0% | 8 | -1.4% | 23 |
| 12 | CHI | 16.4% | 9 | 8-3 | 14.7% | 12 | -18.5% | 28 | -34.5% | 1 | 0.4% | 18 |
| 13 | PHI | 11.8% | 14 | 5-6 | 10.0% | 14 | 8.5% | 11 | -6.3% | 13 | -3.0% | 28 |
| 14 | CAR | 9.6% | 13 | 8-3 | 11.5% | 13 | -6.4% | 18 | -14.1% | 4 | 1.9% | 12 |
| 15 | OAK | 5.2% | 15 | 4-7 | 5.8% | 15 | 9.3% | 10 | 2.6% | 20 | -1.5% | 24 |
| 16 | ATL | 0.9% | 18 | 7-4 | -1.2% | 16 | 10.8% | 8 | 9.3% | 25 | -0.6% | 20 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
W-L |
WEIGHTED DVOA |
RANK |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 17 | TB | 0.6% | 17 | 7-4 | -1.2% | 17 | -6.5% | 20 | -7.8% | 10 | -0.7% | 21 |
| 18 | MIA | -6.2% | 19 | 4-7 | -10.3% | 21 | -17.7% | 27 | -6.5% | 12 | 4.9% | 5 |
| 19 | NE | -7.8% | 16 | 6-5 | -8.9% | 19 | 14.1% | 7 | 23.9% | 29 | 2.0% | 11 |
| 20 | MIN | -8.0% | 25 | 6-5 | -4.5% | 18 | -12.6% | 24 | -4.0% | 16 | 0.6% | 17 |
| 21 | BAL | -12.7% | 21 | 3-8 | -9.9% | 20 | -21.5% | 30 | -5.7% | 15 | 3.2% | 7 |
| 22 | CLE | -13.9% | 20 | 4-7 | -16.1% | 25 | -8.9% | 22 | 8.2% | 24 | 3.1% | 8 |
| 23 | TEN | -14.1% | 24 | 3-8 | -12.7% | 23 | -6.4% | 19 | 13.6% | 27 | 6.0% | 4 |
| 24 | GB | -14.3% | 22 | 2-9 | -11.4% | 22 | -10.2% | 23 | -1.4% | 18 | -5.6% | 32 |
| 25 | DET | -16.5% | 23 | 4-7 | -15.6% | 24 | -15.9% | 25 | -3.8% | 17 | -4.4% | 29 |
| 26 | BUF | -18.6% | 26 | 4-7 | -17.6% | 26 | -20.4% | 29 | 6.4% | 23 | 8.2% | 3 |
| 27 | NO | -20.7% | 28 | 3-8 | -21.2% | 27 | -4.9% | 17 | 11.1% | 26 | -4.7% | 30 |
| 28 | ARI | -24.8% | 27 | 3-8 | -24.5% | 28 | -8.2% | 21 | 18.8% | 28 | 2.2% | 10 |
| 29 | NYJ | -29.1% | 30 | 2-9 | -29.2% | 29 | -25.7% | 31 | 1.3% | 19 | -2.1% | 26 |
| 30 | STL | -31.4% | 29 | 5-6 | -30.8% | 30 | -4.4% | 16 | 26.1% | 31 | -1.0% | 22 |
| 31 | HOU | -41.6% | 31 | 1-10 | -39.5% | 31 | -17.2% | 26 | 35.0% | 32 | 10.6% | 1 |
| 32 | SF | -69.9% | 32 | 2-9 | -70.2% | 32 | -49.6% | 32 | 24.0% | 30 | 3.7% | 6 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
NON-ADJ TOTAL VOA |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
PAST SCHED |
RANK |
FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 1 | IND | 39.4% | 11-0 | 49.7% | 9.6 | 1 | -13.5% | 32 | 8.1% | 7 | 7.6% | 31 |
| 2 | CIN | 38.2% | 8-3 | 41.0% | 8.5 | 4 | -1.4% | 20 | -1.6% | 19 | 18.0% | 19 |
| 3 | DEN | 38.1% | 9-2 | 32.3% | 8.7 | 3 | 10.9% | 5 | 5.8% | 10 | 21.3% | 9 |
| 4 | SD | 33.8% | 7-4 | 24.9% | 8.8 | 2 | 9.6% | 7 | 19.5% | 2 | 10.2% | 28 |
| 5 | NYG | 31.0% | 7-4 | 36.2% | 7.9 | 5 | -1.6% | 21 | 14.4% | 4 | 20.8% | 13 |
| 6 | JAC | 26.3% | 8-3 | 28.3% | 7.6 | 7 | 0.1% | 16 | -20.0% | 32 | 21.6% | 8 |
| 7 | KC | 21.0% | 7-4 | 16.0% | 7.1 | 9 | 0.7% | 15 | 31.7% | 1 | 11.4% | 25 |
| 8 | PIT | 20.1% | 7-4 | 21.3% | 7.3 | 8 | 1.9% | 12 | 3.2% | 12 | 18.9% | 17 |
| 9 | SEA | 19.4% | 9-2 | 27.9% | 7.9 | 6 | -12.0% | 31 | -9.4% | 28 | 10.2% | 29 |
| 10 | DAL | 17.3% | 7-4 | 16.3% | 7.0 | 10 | 5.1% | 11 | 9.3% | 6 | 20.8% | 12 |
| 11 | WAS | 16.6% | 5-6 | -5.4% | 6.8 | 11 | 11.3% | 3 | 0.8% | 16 | 24.6% | 6 |
| 12 | CHI | 16.4% | 8-3 | 15.7% | 6.8 | 12 | -8.5% | 28 | -3.2% | 20 | 33.8% | 2 |
| 13 | PHI | 11.8% | 5-6 | 3.2% | 6.3 | 14 | 8.8% | 8 | 2.2% | 15 | 19.3% | 16 |
| 14 | CAR | 9.6% | 8-3 | 25.2% | 6.6 | 13 | -11.7% | 30 | -0.2% | 17 | 16.8% | 21 |
| 15 | OAK | 5.2% | 4-7 | 8.5% | 6.0 | 15 | 10.3% | 6 | 12.0% | 5 | 6.8% | 32 |
| 16 | ATL | 0.9% | 7-4 | 14.9% | 5.5 | 18 | -8.1% | 27 | 3.1% | 13 | 16.6% | 22 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
NON-ADJ TOTAL VOA |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
PAST SCHED |
RANK |
FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 17 | TB | 0.6% | 7-4 | 10.0% | 5.3 | 19 | -10.8% | 29 | -7.7% | 25 | 18.7% | 18 |
| 18 | MIA | -6.2% | 4-7 | -8.0% | 5.2 | 20 | -1.3% | 19 | -7.1% | 24 | 20.3% | 15 |
| 19 | NE | -7.8% | 6-5 | -16.3% | 5.8 | 17 | 11.1% | 4 | -16.5% | 30 | 9.6% | 30 |
| 20 | MIN | -8.0% | 6-5 | -14.6% | 5.9 | 16 | 1.5% | 13 | -4.8% | 21 | 22.5% | 7 |
| 21 | BAL | -12.7% | 3-8 | -22.2% | 4.3 | 23 | 11.4% | 2 | -8.0% | 26 | 16.8% | 20 |
| 22 | CLE | -13.9% | 4-7 | -20.4% | 4.9 | 21 | 0.1% | 17 | 15.4% | 3 | 16.4% | 23 |
| 23 | TEN | -14.1% | 3-8 | -2.5% | 4.1 | 24 | -5.9% | 26 | 7.5% | 8 | 21.0% | 11 |
| 24 | GB | -14.3% | 2-9 | -9.2% | 3.4 | 27 | 1.3% | 14 | 4.6% | 11 | 20.4% | 14 |
| 25 | DET | -16.5% | 4-7 | -19.5% | 4.6 | 22 | -1.1% | 18 | 3.1% | 14 | 33.6% | 3 |
| 26 | BUF | -18.6% | 4-7 | -11.6% | 3.7 | 26 | -3.1% | 22 | 6.6% | 9 | 27.8% | 4 |
| 27 | NO | -20.7% | 3-8 | -17.2% | 3.9 | 25 | -5.2% | 24 | -1.0% | 18 | 26.3% | 5 |
| 28 | ARI | -24.8% | 3-8 | -18.9% | 3.0 | 29 | -3.7% | 23 | -8.7% | 27 | 11.0% | 27 |
| 29 | NYJ | -29.1% | 2-9 | -36.7% | 2.8 | 30 | 6.6% | 10 | -7.0% | 23 | 11.2% | 26 |
| 30 | STL | -31.4% | 5-6 | -21.2% | 3.1 | 28 | -5.5% | 25 | -6.4% | 22 | 12.4% | 24 |
| 31 | HOU | -41.6% | 1-10 | -50.7% | 1.8 | 31 | 11.4% | 1 | -19.0% | 31 | 21.3% | 10 |
| 32 | SF | -69.9% | 2-9 | -71.1% | 0.3 | 32 | 7.5% | 9 | -10.4% | 29 | 43.9% | 1 |
Links:
[1] http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5120522
[2] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#voaexplained
[3] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#weighted_voa
[4] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#estimated_wins
[5] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#variance