I just went back and looked at the last couple of years. In 2006, 2005, 2004, the top WRs all had in the range of 45 PAR.

Randy Moss has 15.5 through 2 games. I know we can't assume he'll continue to play at this level...

Although, the top two PAR seasons of the DVOA error are Harrison at 50.3 and Moss at 49.8....

Where's Jamal Lewis? 27 carries at 8 yards per and no fumbles doesn't get you in the top-10? Consistency issues?

2

He had carries of 31,66, and 47. Almost all of the rest of his yards came in 2 yard chunks. He also fumbled.

From the DPAR explanation:

"Players receive bonuses when they play well against good defenses, and they don't get rated as world-beaters when they shred the 49ers."

I think this has been this way since previous seasons. Maybe you should update this to "when they shred the Bengals".

I wonder what these numbers would be like if you adjusted them for "WTF?" plays - for example, the Steve Smith catch, or the Braylon Edwards diving, sliding, touchdown. These are obviously not repeatable plays...so should they really count?

#1: The Chargers are projected to have the 4th worst defense in the league, and the Jets aren't expected to be anything special, either. Most likely with adjustments it'll be somewhere in the neighborhood of a DPAR of ~10 or so, which is still ridiculously high (and unsustainable), but not mind-blowingly high.

#5,

The Edwards TD maybe wouldn't always be a TD, but there is no reason to punish him for that play. He beat the coverage and made a terrific effort to catch an overthrown ball.

The Smith one, with the ball being batted, I can see a case for.

BTW, this was an impressive week for WRs. When Moss has a day where he catches every pass in his direction, all for first downs and two for TDs and that doesn't even warrant mentioning...

Wow.

#4

I think the Rams will be pretty insulted at your suggestion. We've been working very hard for the last few years to build a terrible defense. A few more injuries last year and we'd have been world beatingly rancid, instead of just horrible.

With a secondary made entirely of faint dreams we just need Little, Carriker and Witherspoon to go down and we'll be letting CFL teams hang 30 points on us.

#5

Which Steve Smith one? The one where the defender teed it up for him, or the one where the safety decided it'd be a good idea to hit the 3 guys who were wrapping Smith up and let him run free? That's gotta be a bad feeling - a sympathy TD from the Texans.

#3:

Ah. I figured it was something like that. I didn't see the game, and my glance at the box score missed his fumble.

*sniffle* But I want to know how my Broncos did... :(

#7: Besides, there's not much difference between a catch for a TD and getting tackled at the 2. An average team would still score the TD, and you can't blame the receiver if the rest of his team is below average.

Where's Jamal Lewis? I know he had a few big runs that skew his average, but 218 yards on 28 carries should be a bigger boom and bust day than Parker's.

#2,3
Sorry, I missed your comments. It's still odd it isn't a top-10 game though, LenDale White had 15 for 64 yards (12 max, 5 runs of 2 or less yards) and it's surprising that it's better than Lewis's. I guess the penalty for fumbles and stops really hurt his PAR.

The Saints are still operating under the assumption that Reggie Bush can't run between the tackles, so they keep making him do cutesy stuff that never goes anywhere.

Re my own #5, I appologize for not being more clear about the multiple Smith catches. ;-)

In general, the more I think about it, doesn't it seem that PAR for wide receivers needs to be modified? In essence, the "average" play for a wide receiver is a really difficult thing to get to. For RBs, we know that it's not so great if every time they run the ball they get 2 yards. For QBs, we know it's not so great if they throw 50 passes for 4 yards each. But for WRs, it's much less clear. Sample size is tiny - a great game for a receiver might be just 8 catches. On top of that, different offensive assignments mean some receivers will have lots of yards on few receptions while others will have lots of receptions for fewer yards.

Maybe a more accurate receiver DPAR could be calculated by taking league replacement player values for each WR "primary" position (slot, flanker, etc.).

Aaron: I'm curious -- how close was Jericho Cotchery to the top five receivers?

Boller played very well and it wasn't just that the Jets' defense stinks. Unlike last week, they were actually getting through with some of their blitzes. Boller was just finding the right receiver and getting rid of the ball quick. Of course, the fact that David "I Got Beat Deep By A Tight End" Barrett was starting at CB helps.

NFL officials confiscated a videotape they found on the Patriots' sideline last night, only to find it was nothing but an endless loop of Leslie Feist's "1 2 3 4" Macintosh commercial. Over and over and over and over.

I'm absolutely taking credit for being the first one to call this commercial out in the Week 1 Audibles thread. I hope my check is in the mail.

Re #16:

Woops forgot to mention - worst part of tiny sample size is that a few big "WTF?" plays can totally skew our perception of how good a receiver actually is. Every Sunday someone gets a huge touchdown reception because a safety fell down, the ball freakishly bounced out of the defenders hands and into the WRs hands, etc. Hypothetically, I believe these types of plays are less likely to occur for inside receivers who run shorter routes more often ... it's harder to get a 50 yard TD when you're usually catching the ball after 6 or 7 yards.

Hey Aaron, special request- any chance of you posting the DPAR numbers of Josh McCown when you get them? I'm curious what an 8/16 for 73 yards (46 on one play) and 3 INTs day looks like in DPAR, or more importantly what it looks like compared to the worst passing games of the DVOA era.

I'm also looking forward to seeing the pass defense DVOA of the Denver Broncos after they've allowed 125 net passing yards in 130 minutes of football...

16:

The only thing is that particular data is not in the play-by-play.

21:

Right. That's why I said just classify them based on their "primary" position. On the whole, over the course of the season, this will work itself out. Then recalculate replacement level over the course of a season (or multiple seasons) worth of data.

Worst comes to worst, just grab the depth charts and take the #3 receiver and label him "slot."

Modern Lovers reference was unbelievably awesome and obscure. I listen to that album a lot.

22:

I know that for the Colts and the Jaguars and probably the Patriots, that wouldn't work. Or the Saints. Those teams move receivers all over the field quite frequently.

I am having a hard time believing that Jay Cutler was a worse qb than Jackson for the Vikings was.... I don't care I watched that game and Jackson was just useless

Yeah, the Roadrunner reference made my day. Can't possibly turn that song up loud enough. "Radio on..."

25: Did you perhaps miss this: "Please note that the Denver-Oakland game is not included in Quick Reads because of technical issues with the play-by-play file."?

Aaron, i was a little dissapointed, and hope you haven't yet given up on Romo's sophmore slump...

The Giants D was useless, and he didn't consistently impress last night either

sorry for the dp, but great stuff as always.

Also, thinking of Derek Anderson at #2, and #4 Matt Shaub, who could have been the beneficiary of the JAC D, with, what, 7 sacks, makes me chuckle.

The Schaub/Andre Johnson comment looks ominous now in light of his ankle injury. I wonder if Demeco Ryans can play WR also...?

The Joey Galloway commentary is also priceless. Says nothing about him, but a ton about the offseason pundits who said "Indy's D has to regress because they're losing all these starters." Somehow, they forgot to look at WHO those starters were and how they perform. Don't get me wrong, he's fast, has good instincts, a ton of heart, and I like Jason David a lot. Just not as much as the QBs who face him.

@Aaron:

The problem with the data parser in the Oakland @ Denver game might be related to an interruption in that game due to lightning.

I remember that they wrote something like that in the play-by-play during the game, although it does not show in the full play-by-play now. I am not sure if it was in the first or second quarter, but definitely in the first half.

Ack!!!

Really wanted to see the Denver game.

Conventional wisdom about Denver is that they've played two close games against weaker opponents, but they have averaged twice as many yards per drive as their opponents.

Denver's special teams has been frustrating. I know that VOA doesn't consider kicking and punting distance to be the fault of the returner and it usually shouldn't be, but Hixon let a ball bounce past him that he could have fair caught around the eleven against Buffalo and then fair caught a ball at the six against Oakland. He seemed to be afraid of making the same mistake and overcompensated.

As a result, Denver's average field position is very low again so far this year.

Buffalo also had two long returns with one punt return for a touchdown and one just saved from being a touchdown by Champ Bailey.

Combine that with Elam's misses and a couple of mistakes that cost big like a tipped ball returned for a touchdown and the punt return touchdown and a recovered onside kick and you have two close games where the Broncos clearly dominated.

Anyhow, the special teams looks terrible. The errors hurt us much more than I expect the VOA to testify to.

The DVOA era? Please.

Obviously Johnson being doubtful is a huge blow for the Texans, but they're better equipped to deal with it than they would have been in any previous year. Johnson has been open so regularly, and the team running on a lead for so much of the time, that Jones and Walter have yet to receive many regular season targets, but Jones was spectacular in preseason, and brings a lot of the same things to the table as Johnson, in that he is a big, fast downfield threat who is capable of running people over. He is a far less polished route runner, but expect him to have some success against the less than stellar Colts secondary.

On the other hand, look for the Texans defense to be exposed. The front 7 is as good as advertised, but the secondary is still Dunta Robinson and a bunch of bums, and against a team with more than one legitimate receiving threat (and I think the Colts just about qualify) they will struggle.

Grossman looked bad against a pretty mediocore KC defense. Has good Rex (or at least the Rex that plays good against poor defenses) gone into hibernation?

The Brian Greise watch has begun in Chicago.

#37

DVOA Epoch!

Surprises?

Joseph Harrington being as high as he is, Lamont Jordan not making the top 10 (Oh wait....lightning storm), and some guy named Glenn Holt was the #9 ranked receiver. Is Glenn Holt supposed to be Torry Holt, or does Glenn Holt win the John Broussard/Roger Daltrey memorial WTFAY award?

Aaron,
What was Jamal Lewis' DPAR for this week, and was it the lowest for a conventional big game (150+ yards rushing) in the DVOA era?
Sorry, I could only think of things that were more obnoxious.

Re 39:
Glenn Holt is a receiver for the Bengals. Apparently they're running out of them with Henry suspended, Tab Perry injured sometime before the 4th quarter of that game and Holt injured late in that game.

Is there a way to punish WR/TEs for not only dropping a pass, but actually causing the interception by the other team? In light of the DPAR error, it seems unfair that Kellen Clemens 2nd INT (off of McCarians hands... Though not a great throw, certainly catchable)
would somehow count against Clemens and McCarians a little, but if McCarians caught the pass at the 2 and then fumbled, it'd be all on him.

@42 I don't think the play by play includes lines like "K.Clemens pass right intended for J.McCareins, but he screwed up so it was INTERCEPTED by R.Lewis for touchback."

Re #37

The Enlightenment

#37

The Age of Aquaaronius

Is it too early to start wondering what's wrong with McNabb? Based on his preseason play I thought he was ready to return to pre-injury form, but it certainly hasn't happened yet. I seem to recall Palmer struggling a bit early in the season last year after his injury, is that what's going on with McNabb?

#43 - I agree it's probably not there. But in the name of trying to get the mos taccurate read on a QB includes figuring who's to blame. Furthermore, is there more blame when a TD is dropped vs. a regular pass?

I said roadrunner once,
Roadrunner twice,
I'm in love with Tom and Bill,
And everything's alright

37: The KUBIAK Age. Personally, I think Since 1996 is a fine descriptor, and perhaps in the bottom section where you explain how DVOA is calculated, you can spell out the significance of 1996 for the stats.

The fact that Steve Smith had two such incredible plays in one game should clue us into the fact that it isn't random. To say that he was the beneficiary of a safety knocking three tacklers off of him is needlessly, and kind of stupidly, understating how incredible of a play it was. These things happen to Steve Smith because he works so hard and diligently until the play is over. He has incredible body control. He made those two plays because he is a great player that works on all the little things to maximize his game. Writing it off as luck that happens to him over and over again is just plain stupid when there is an obvious and easier explanation. He works harder than anyone else to make these things happen. Steve Smith is to me what is great about the NFL. As sickened as I am by Vick and Belicheck and all the rest of this crap going on, I am still inspired by watching how hard Steve Smith works every play. Did everyone see him in the pre-season, when he wasn't playing, filling up the cups with gatorade and distributing them to the players who were playing? What a contrast that is to Vick and his casual athletic arrogance, who could have been great, but couldn't be bothered to put in the work. In fact, I am so inspired, I will get back to work myself. My organization thanks you, Steve Smith.

I love that Steve Smith doesn't quit when he doesn't have the ball. It may have been pre-season, but he made a great block 20 yards downfield that sprang someone for a touchdown.

Re 46 : Steve Young pointed out last night on ESPN that McNabb wasn't planting his back leg firmly when passing (replays backed this up). This means either his knee isn't really healed, or he is really psyched out by the possibility of re-injury

It would be interesting to know why the projection system wanted a sophomore slump for Romo. One of the best FO columns recently was the incredible column on Adjusted Completion Percentage. Romo profiled out very, very well in that, and intuitively you'd expect that would predict a bright future. I wouldn't think the purported difficulty of schedule, his slump towards the end of the season, and the aging of the WRs would be enough to balance out how well he played overall according to Aaron's adjusted completion stats.

On another note, Kitna is on pace to come out very near the top when the opponent adjustments start and at some point people are going to stop making fun and start rooting for the historic season. With all the bad stories in football and life, Kitna's story is spectacular (even if you believe he shouldn't have been allowed to go back in that game).

Re 50:
Steve Smith is such a great guy that he's willing to suckerpunch a teammate in film study. That's dedication.

Say what you will about Steve Smith, but he and Muhsin are the only guys in the NFL who can pull of the P.L.A.Y. spot without appearing like they'd rather be at the dentist.

Keep Tryyyying

Smith's third touchdown was indeed the product of an incredible combination of determination, body control and lower body strength (and CC Brown being CC Brown). He deserves great credit for it. The first touchdown, on the other hand, was about equal measures fluke and Demarcus Faggins sucking, with just a shred of alertness and good reflexes from Smith woven into the causative bundle.