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Sidney Rice has retired. Is he the most random single-season DYAR leader ever? One-year wonder? Injury prone? We offer a career retrospective for the second-best wide receiver named Rice in NFL history.

06 Nov 2012

Week 9 Quick Reads

by Vince Verhei

It was only two months ago that Robert Griffin made a grand entrance to the NFL, torching the New Orleans Saints for 320 yards passing and two touchdowns while completing 73 percent of his passes. In one game, the No. 2 pick in April's draft became the No. 1 rookie on everyone's mind, and he did little to change that over the next several weeks. In Weeks 6 and 7, the Washington Redskins passer put up a combined 667 yards of offense (passing and rushing) against the Vikings and Giants, and he seemed destined to win the rookie of the year award. Yesterday, though, all that changed. As Griffin underwhelmed in a loss to Carolina, two other rookies made history in wins. Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck set a rookie record with 433 passing yards against Miami, while Doug Martin set a Tampa Bay franchise record with 251 yards rushing. Halfway through the 2012 season, the race for rookie of the year seems wide open, but a closer look reveals a clear pecking order with two months to go.

It's fairly simple to compare Griffin to Luck because they both play the same position. Griffin's raw stats (65.6 percent completion rate, 7.6 yards per pass, eight touchdowns, three interceptions) are clearly superior to Luck's (56.5 percent, 7.2, 10 TDs, 8 INTs), but when Football Outsiders' passing rankings are updated Tuesday afternoon, you'll find Luck's name above Griffin's by a significant margin. That's largely because Luck has thrown a lot of deep passes, while Griffin has mostly thrown small stuff. Nearly half of Griffin's passes (48 percent, to be precise) have been thrown to receivers within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. That's ten percent higher than Luck's rate of short passes. On the other hand, 23 percent of Luck's passes have traveled at least 16 yards past the line of scrimmage, while only 16 percent of Griffin's throws have gone that far. As a result, while Luck has completed 18 more passes than Griffin, Griffin actually has 24 more failed completions (completions that failed to gain significant yardage toward a new set of downs) than Luck.

That's not the only reason Luck outranks Griffin at FO. Although Luck has dropped back 73 more times than Griffin, Griffin has given up 20 sacks to only 19 for Luck. Luck has also played a more challenging slate of defenses, especially in Week 1. While Griffin began his professional career against the Saints (dead last in FO's pass defense rankings), Luck premiered against the Chicago Bears, far and away the league's best defense. If we throw out Week 1, Luck leads Griffin in yards per pass play (including sacks), 6.5 to 6.2.

Of course, that's only passing numbers, and Griffin has brought a running element to the Redskins like few quarterbacks in league history. With the possible exception of Michael Vick's Falcons, Vince Young's Titans, and Cam Newton's Panthers, Griffin's Redskins run more option plays than anyone has seen before, and Griffin himself leads all quarterbacks with 529 rushing yards. Luck, though, is no statue, and has 148 rushing yards. Advanced stats have Griffin as the most valuable rushing quarterback this season, but Luck is third behind Griffin and Aaron Rodgers. Griffin has the edge in rushing, but that edge is not big enough to make up for Luck's superior passing ability so far.

Comparing Martin to Luck and Griffin is difficult because he plays a different position, but it's safe to say he stands out more among his peers. To put that another way, it would be hard to argue that either Luck or Griffin is a top 10 quarterback right now, but Martin is clearly a top 10 running back, and should probably rank somewhere in the top five at his position. He's currently sixth in FO's rushing rankings, and fifth in our combined rushing/receiving statistics. Conventional statistics like him even more. He's second behind Minnesota's Adrian Peterson in yards from scrimmage, and he leads the league with 129.9 yards from scrimmage per game.

(By the way, Martin's game against Oakland would be even more impressive if you remove his last three carries. Trying only to kill clock, Martin ran three times against an Oakland defense that knew what was coming, and he lost yards each time. The strategy helped to preserve the win, but it cost Martin 15 yards rushing. At FO, we've wiped these plays from the books just like we do quarterback kneeldowns.)

All three of these rookies are threatening historical benchmarks. Here's a partial list of some of the single-season records these players are approaching, along with the pace they're keeping and the current standards in the record book:

Rookies threatening NFL records, 2012
Andrew Luck
Statistic
Current Pace
Current Record
Passing yards, rookies
4,808
4,051 (Cam Newton, CAR, 2011)
Passing touchdowns, rookies
20
26 (Peyton Manning, IND, 1998)
Robert Griffin
Statistic
Current Pace
Current Record
Rushing yards, quarterbacks
940
1,039 (Michael Vick, ATL, 2006)
Doug Martin
Statistic
Current Pace
Current Record
Yards from scrimmage, rookies
2,078
2,212 (Eric Dickerson, L.A. Rams, 1983)

As always, statistics are only part of the story. The goal of any player is to make the playoffs, and if the season ended today, only one of these rookies (Luck) would be playing in the postseason. Indianapolis probably won't challenge Houston for the AFC South championship, but Sunday's win over Miami earned the Colts a tiebreaker advantage over another wild card contender, and they still have games against softies like Jacksonville, Buffalo, Tennessee and Kansas City on their slate. In the NFC, Martin's Buccaneers are 4-4 and just a half-game out of the postseason, with a mix of easy games (Carolina, New Orleans, St. Louis) and hard ones (one game against Denver, two against Atlanta) remaining. Washington, meanwhile, has the third-worst record in the NFC, and will fall to second-worst if New Orleans beats Philadelphia on Monday night.

If Luck and the Colts make the playoffs, the rookie of the year award will probably be his. If something goes wrong in Indianapolis, Martin looks like the safest bet to take the lead. It's funny to say after his great game in Week 1, but at this point, Griffin looks like a longshot.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
1.
Andrew Luck IND
30/48
433
2
0
219
218
1
Third downs: 13-of-17 for 204 yards and 12 first downs, including a touchdown. Had six third-down conversions with at least 10 yards to go, including conversions on third-and-14, third-and-16, and third-and-20.
2.
Tony Romo DAL
25/35
321
1
0
182
182
0
Repeat after me: It's not Romo's fault, it's not Romo's fault, it's not Romo's fault. Like all heroes, Romo was at his best when things looked their worst. With less than eight minutes to go in the game, the Falcons kicked a field goal to go ahead 16-6. Romo answered with a perfect performance on the next drive, going 6-of-6 for 78 yards and a touchdown. Five of those completions picked up a new set of downs; the sixth was a 6-yard gain on first-and-10. Unfortunately for Romo, his defense proved virtually incapable of getting the Atlanta offense off the field, and the Falcons kept the ball for nearly the rest of the game, save for a handful of desperate plays at the end.
3.
Matt Stafford DET
22/33
285
0
0
129
129
0
Third downs: 9-of-12 for 133 yards, plus a 20-yard DPI, for nine total first downs.
4.
Peyton Manning DEN
27/35
291
3
2
121
121
0
Late in the third quarter, Manning and the Broncos had a 17-10 lead. Manning's last two passes of that quarter were both intercepted, and when he got the ball in the fourth quarter, the Broncos trailed 17-20. In the fourth, Manning went 6-of-6 for 69 yards, with two touchdowns and three other first downs, plus a 29-yard DPI, and the Broncos won 31-23.
5.
Matt Ryan ATL
24/34
342
0
0
107
103
4
The deeper Ryan was pinned, the better he played. Inside his own 40, he went 11-of-16 for 223 yards and eight first downs. Between the 40s, he went 7-of-8 for 80 yards and five first downs, with one sack-fumble. Inside the Dallas 40, he went 6-of-10 for 39 yards and only three first downs, with two sacks.
6.
Russell Wilson SEA
16/24
173
3
0
102
95
6
Wilson was a killer when Seattle got within scoring position, going 8-of-10 for 90 yards and seven first downs (including three red-zone touchdowns) with one sack inside the Minnesota 40. Also ran seven times for 29 yards, including a pair of conversions on fourth-and-1.
7.
Matt Schaub HOU
19/27
268
2
0
99
99
0
First-half third downs: 0-for-3 with a sack. Second-half third downs: 4-of-4 for 66 yards and three first downs, including a touchdown.
8.
Cam Newton CAR
13/23
201
1
0
95
73
23
Virtually all of Newton's passing DYAR comes from two plays: a 19-yard touchdown to Steve Smith on third-and-10, and an 82-yard completion to Armanti Edwards. Other than that, he was close to replacement level, but since he had no sacks or turnovers, two big plays was enough to count as a good day passing. He also ran eight times for 37 yards and five first downs, including a 1-yard touchdown and three third-down conversions.
9.
Andy Dalton CIN
26/41
299
1
1
88
81
7
On the last play of the third quarter, the Bengals took over on the Denver 27, down 17-13. From that point forward, Dalton went 7-of-13 for 67 yards and only three first downs, with a sack and an interception.
10.
Drew Brees NO
21/27
239
2
0
87
87
0
11.
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF
25/38
239
0
0
79
92
-12
Buffalo's half of the field: 19-of-30 for 179 yards, with one sack and 10 first downs. Houston's half of the field: 6-of-8, but only for three first downs and two sacks. He also had three carries for 18 yards including an 11-yard gain on second-and-10, but his other two carries were a 3-yard gain on third-and-12 and a 4-yard gain and fumble on first-and-10.
12.
Philip Rivers SD
18/20
220
2
1
69
69
0
Rivers hit each of his first 13 passes for 172 yards and six first downs, including a touchdown. His last pass of the half, though, was a red zone interception. He only had five dropbacks after halftime, with one sack and four completions for 41 yards and three first downs, including a touchdown.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
13.
Aaron Rodgers GB
14/30
218
4
1
65
57
8
A weird game. Rodgers ended the first half on fire, completing each of his last seven passes for 92 yards and six first downs, including two touchdowns. Then his first six passes of the second half were all incomplete, and he finished only 3-of-11 after halfime. He had no sacks or turnovers, and one of those completions was a 72-yard touchdown, but you rarely see Rodgers so useless over extended playing time.
14.
Matt Hasselbeck TEN
20/35
209
1
1
57
52
6
Without opponent adjustments, Hasselbeck would have ranked about ten spots lower this week. The Bears defense is really good. He didn't get much help from his receivers, who fumbled four times on balls that would have otherwise been successful plays. On the other hand, Hasselbeck bears responsibility for these third- and fourth-down numbers: 3-of-9 for 13 yards with one sack, including completions for 1 yard on third-and-10 and zero yards on third-and-7. He only converted one third down all day, a 12-yard gain to Craig Stevens in the second quarter, and even on that play Stevens fumbled (though the Titans recovered).
15.
Joe Flacco BAL
15/24
153
1
0
34
31
3
First seven dropbacks: seven completions for seven first downs and 97 yards. Next 15 dropbacks: 5-of-14 for 13 yards, no first downs, one sack. Last three dropbacks: three completions, 43 yards, two first downs, including the game-winning 19-yard touchdown to Torrey Smith.
16.
Josh Freeman TB
18/30
247
2
0
31
25
6
The Raiders started safety Michael Huff at left cornerback (offense's right), and Green Bay castoff Patrick Lee on the other side. Freeman went 9-of-14 for 192 yards and eight first downs (including two touchdowns) to Huff's side, but only 5-of-10 for 36 yards and two first downs to Lee's side.
17.
Jay Cutler CHI
19/26
229
3
0
27
21
6
Another week, another terrible first quarter for the Bears passer as he went 3-of-6 for 18 yards with a sack and only one first down in the opening frame. That one first down was a 13-yard touchdown on his last play of the quarter. Perhaps his body clock was thrown off by Daylight Savings Time and he thought it was the second half already. Anyway, despite this performance from their quarterback, Chicago finished the first quarter with a 28-2 lead.
18.
Carson Palmer OAK
39/61
415
4
3
22
15
7
Even as his defense spent most of the afternoon helping Doug Martin put together his highlight reel, Palmer started off really good in the fourth quarter, starting off 14-of-19 for 171 yards and eight first downs, including three touchdowns. He got the ball back down three points late in the fourth and proceeded to go incomplete, interception. With one more drive, now down ten points, he went 5-yard gain, interception, and he never got the ball again.
19.
John Skelton ARI
23/46
311
1
1
15
15
0
Late in the third quarter, the Cardinals had a first down at the Green Bay 11 and were only down 24-14. Skelton threw incomplete on first down and hit Larry Fitzgerald for 9 yards on second down. A third-down run was stuffed and the Cardinals kicked a field goal to make it 24-17. Aaron Rodgers threw a 72-yard touchdown pass to Tom Crabtree on the Packers' next drive, the last play of the third quarter, to make it 31-17 Green Bay. In the fourth, Skelton went 7-of-12 for 78 yards and only one first down (although one other play would have been a first down if Andre Roberts hadn't fumbled).
20.
Matt Cassel KC
19/29
181
0
1
5
-16
21
Cassel actually had some great third-down numbers, going 8-of-9 for 81 yards and seven first downs. On first and second downs, though, he had only five first downs and two turnovers, both of which were returned for touchdowns. At least he was good rushing. He had five carries for 38 yards and three first downs, with every carry gaining at least 5 yards and counting as a successful play.
21.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
21/29
216
2
1
-3
-3
0
A lot of big plays, both good (touchdowns of 4 and 51 yards, two other gains of 20 or more yards) and bad (four sacks, a completion for a 5-yard loss and a fumble, an interception). On first down, he had completions for 23 and 24 yards, but otherwise went 2-of-6 for 11 yards with no first downs, one interception, and one sack.
22.
Ryan Tannehill MIA
22/38
290
1
0
-16
-16
0
Without opponent adjustments, Tannehill would have ranked about ten spots higher this week. The Colts defense is really bad. A lot of the blame for Miami's three-point loss can be pinned on Tannehill's limited red zone numbers: 0-for-3 with a sack.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
23.
Blaine Gabbert JAC
27/38
220
2
2
-26
-21
-5
In the first half, Gabbert had one throw for 25 yards, and otherwise went 5-of-10 for 16 yards and no first downs with a sack. He did not convert a third-down pass until the fourth quarter, at which point the Jaguars were behind 24-0.
24.
Robert Griffin WAS
23/39
215
0
0
-27
-27
-1
Remember what we said in the main essay about failed completions? Griffin went 6-of-9 on third downs against Carolina, but those six first downs netted only 44 yards and two first downs. He was also sacked twice on third downs. He ran the ball 11 times for 53 yards, but only two of those runs gained first downs. He had three carries for no gain or a loss, including a 0-yard run on fourth-and-2, plus a pair of 7-yard gains on third-and-10 and third-and-13.
25.
Eli Manning NYG
10/24
125
0
1
-41
-41
0
Third downs: 1-of-6 with two sacks and a fumble, with his only completion going for 1 yard on third-and-8.
26.
Brandon Weeden CLE
20/37
176
0
2
-50
-52
2
Weeden was actually really good in the middle of the field, going 9-of-13 for 87 yards and seven first downs and an interception, plus a 7-yard DPI. Of course, that means that over the rest of the field he went 11-of-23 for 89 yards and only three first downs, with an interception and a sack.
27.
Christian Ponder MIN
11/22
63
0
1
-66
-68
1
First six dropbacks: 1-of-5 for 3 yards with a sack. Next four dropbacks: 3-of-3 for 44 yards and three firt downs, plus a 24-yard DPI. From that point in the middle of the second quarter through to the end of the game: 7-of-14 for 26 yards with one first down, one interception, and three sacks.
28.
Michael Vick PHI
22/40
272
1
1
-155
-175
20
Michael Vick was sacked seven times with one fumble and one interception against the worst pass defense in the NFL.


Five most valuable running backs
Rk
Player
Team
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Doug Martin TB
265
4
21
0
94
94
0
As noted in the main essay, we've opted to ignore Martin's trio of yardage-losing clock-killers at the end of the game. Putting those aside, three of Martin's 22 runs lost yardage, while seven of them gained 10 yards or more. Perhaps most amazing about Martin's day was that he was nearly irrelevant before halftime (eight carries for 31 yards) and a monster in the third and fourth quarters (14 carries, 234 yards, four touchdowns). His last carry of the third quarter was a 67-yard touchdown. His first carry of the fourth quarter was a 70-yard touchdown. Oh, and he caught four of the five passes thrown his way for 21 yards.
2.
Adrian Peterson MIN
182
2
11
0
66
71
-6
Five stuffs for no gain or a loss in 17 carries, but six runs for 10 yards or more and three runs for 20 or more, including a 74-yard gain, plus touchdowns of 1 and 4 yards. Caught three of the four passes thrown his way for 11 yards, incuding a 3-yard gain on third-and-2. And he did it against one of the league's better defenses.
3.
Marshawn Lynch SEA
124
1
26
0
54
47
7
Only four of his 26 carries resulted in no gain or a loss, while he had 12 runs of 5 yards or more, plus a 3-yard touchdown. He also caught both passes thrown his way for 26 yards, including a 23-yard gain on second-and-13. Is Lynch an MVP candidate? He's now second behind Adrian Peterson in rushing DYAR, and leads all running backs in total DYAR from scrimmage (rushing plus receiving).
4.
Matt Forte CHI
103
1
45
0
47
32
14
A boom-and-bust day, but with plenty of boom. He had runs of 17, 16, and 46 yards, and also an 8-yard touchdown, but otherwise gained 16 yards in eight carries. He caught both of the passes the Bears threw to him, one for a 47-yard gain, the other a 2-yard loss on third-and-5.
5.
Isaac Redman PIT
147
1
4
0
45
54
-9
In his first 37 regular-season NFL games, Redman averaged 23 rushing yards per game, and never gained more than 92 yards. (Only twice did he even gain 50 yards in a game.) On Sunday, though, the Steelers had neither Rashard Mendenhall nor Jonathan Dwyer, and so they gave the ball to Redman over and over. The former Bowie State Bulldogs responded with 26 carries for 147 yards, plus two catches in two targets for 4 more yards. Only two of those carries lost yardage, while nine gained first downs (including a touchdown) and five gained at least 10 yards, capped off by a 28-yarder in the fourth quarter to put the game away. He also caught both of the passes thrown his way for 4 yards.


Least valuable running back
Rk
Player
Team
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Willis McGahee DEN
66
0
4
0
-36
-34
-2
Only two first downs in 23 carries. 18 of his runs gained 3 yards or less, including four stuffs for no gain or a loss. Also caught the only pass thrown his way for 4 yards.
OTHER RUNNING BACKS OF LITTLE VALUE: Darren McFadden, OAK (seven carries for 17 yards, three stuffs for no gain or a loss, two catches in three targets for no yards); Lance Dunbar, DAL (eight carries for 26 yards, with 18 yards coming on one carry, plus zero catches in two targets); Justin Forsett, HOU (six carries for 7 yards, including four stuffs for no gain or a loss).


Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
1.
A.J. Green CIN
7
9
99
14.1
1
67
The first six passes thrown Green's way produced 91 yards and five first downs, including a 10-yard touchdown. His last three targets, though, went incomplete, interception (treated like an incompletion for Green), 8-yard gain on second-and-2.
2.
Calvin Johnson DET
7
8
129
18.4
0
67
Johnson's only incompletion came with Detroit up by 21 points in the fourth quarter. His first catch was a 7-yard gain on first down in the first quarter, but each of his other six catches gained 12 to 38 yards and a first down. Not included in the table, he also drew a 20-yard DPI. He converted all three of his third-down throws. He did almost all of his damage in the first half. He had no targets in the third quarter, and his only targets in the fourth were the one incompletion and an 18-yard gain.
3.
Julio Jones ATL
5
6
129
25.8
0
61
Jones' only incompletion came on third-and-3 in the third quarter. He had a 5-yard gain on first down in the second quarter, but his other four catches each gained 18 to 48 yards and a first down. He also ran for an 8-yard gain on third-and-1 in the fourth quarter.
4.
Brandon Marshall CHI
9
10
122
13.6
3
58
Marshall's first six targets netted five completions, but for only 31 yards and one first down (although that first down was a 13-yard touchdown on third-and-7). His last five targets, though, all went for first downs: an 18-yard catch, a 10-yard DPI (which is not included in the numbers listed in the table), a 29-yard catch, a 39-yard touchdown, and a 5-yard touchdown on third-and-goal.
5.
Kevin Ogletree DAL
3
4
96
32.0
1
51
In Week 1, Ogletree caught eight passes in 11 targets for 114 yards and two touchdowns. It seemed as if he had joined Miles Austin and Dez Bryant to give Dallas a dangerous trio of wide receivers, but then he faded out of the limelight. Between that game and Halloween, Ogletree caught 13 of 20 passes for only 134 yards. He didn't get a lot of opportunities against Atlanta on Sunday night, but he made the most of them. Ogletree's only incompletion came on third-and-7 in the second quarter. His other three targets: A 10-yard gain on first-and-10, a 65-yard gain on third-and-20, and a 21-yard touchdown on first-and-10 in the fourth quarter.


Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
1.
Brandon Banks WAS
2
2
-7
-3.5
0
-28
This may set the record for fewest plays ever by the least valuable receiver of the week. Here we go: On third-and-4 in the red zone in the second quarter, he caught a pass for a 2-yard gain. On third-and-6 in the red zone in the third quarter, he ran for a 3-yard gain. And on first-and-10 from the Washington 17 on the last play of the game, with the Redskins trailing by eight, he caught a pass for a 9-yard loss. Banks was trying to make a miracle happen there, so it's probably not fair to hold that play against him. Still, Banks did a lot wrong when Washington got the ball to him, and nothing right.
OTHER RECEIVERS OF LITTLE VALUE: Brandon Tate, CIN (1-of-6 for 17 yards); Jared Cook, TEN (2-of-5 for 12 yards, one fumble); Earl Bennett, CHI (4-of-8 for 22 yards).

Posted by: Vince Verhei on 06 Nov 2012

78 comments, Last at 07 Nov 2012, 3:03pm by Dean

Comments

1
by Jimmy :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:05am

Vince

Just wondering if Chris Johnson gets credit for his 80 yard TD run when the Bears had their second string defense on the field?

2
by Nevic (not verified) :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:21am

The Bears 2nd string defense is probably better than half the NFL 1st string defenses, so I say yes, he gets credit.

35
by Roch Bear :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 1:59pm

Like the ring of that. I suspect their second string DL actually is better than a few starting DLs. The Bears depth at S and LB is poor however, and at CB, ordinary.

6
by Duke :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:34am

I had forgotten that run. I was wondering why Chris Johnson and his two fumbles weren't in the least valuable section.

8
by Thunderbolt of ... :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:41am

I don't think second-string defenses are factored into FO stats, so yes, he would get credit for that run (correct me if I'm wrong). However, Johnson only had successful plays on 8 of his 20 touches by my count, and fumbled twice, so it's not shocking that he didn't appear on the leaderboard.

28
by Ton Waddlebee (not verified) :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 1:24pm

I don't think defensive personnel is taken into account, but I'm pretty sure that they calculate "garbage time" at least indirectly. 4th quarter down by 38 I think would factor in to the value of that play in DYAR, no?

23
by Ender (not verified) :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 1:05pm

The Bears got credit for the 5 or 6 unforced turnovers they have gotten this year. Don't see why one break out run against them would be any different. Every stat has a lot of noise in it and you can bet a historic looking stat probably has some good luck involved on top of the loads of skill.

33
by Jimmy :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 1:46pm

What are 'unforced turnovers'?

The reason I queried the Johson run is that the only reason it happened was because the Titans had lost the game at that point. If DVOA is supposed to be predictive what is the point of using that data to look at the Bears' defense? It wasn't just a prevent defense or some other change in strategy, it was 10 out of 11 different players (and if they had suited another DT up it would have been 11 out of 11).

41
by Kurt :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 3:16pm

"Unforced turnovers" seems like a simple enough concept to me.

The punt that bounced off the returner's leg in last year's NFCCG would be an example. Botched handoffs, Felix Jones running into his own blocker and dropping the ball, snaps over the quarterback's head, that sort of thing.

43
by Jimmy :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 3:29pm

Ok that makes sense, now if someone could identify five or six of these from the Bears this season.

57
by Marko :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 7:23pm

He probably has in mind things like Peanut's two pick-6s, which involved terrible passes thrown right to him and apparent miscommunications with young receivers (Dez Bryant and Justin Blackmon), and Tim Jennings' pick-6, which involved a terrible pass and a receiver (Steve Smith) who slipped on the slick Soldier Field turf.

However, you can argue that those plays also featured CBs who baited the QB and knew exactly where he was going to throw it (in the case of Tillman's picks, he knew better than the receivers where the passes were going). Jennings also said that on his pick-6, he could tell before the snap where the throw was going based on his film study. At least two of those pick-6s also involved blitz pressure (I think they were from blitzing DBs in both cases), so in each case the CB knew that it was going to be a quick throw to a "hot" read (again, they knew this better than the receivers).

Maybe he also has in mind some of the fumbles by the Lions. The one that sticks out as "unforced" was the muffed punt recovered by Zack Bowman (although that was on special teams, not defense). The other fumbles by the Lions (particularly the one on the goal line) involved careless play (who jumps from the three yard line on a handoff and extends the ball like that?), but the Bears had some hand in jarring the ball loose and, of course, recovering them.

3
by jimm (not verified) :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:24am

I saw that Doug Martin's 40 time at the combine was 4.55...he looks much faster than that to me when I've watched him. But more than anything he just seems so darn hard to tackle.

10
by sundown (not verified) :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:42am

He may in fact be much faster than that over the shorter spurts that really matter. He may also keep his speed while changing directions better than some other guys. It's kind of amazing that in this day and age the 40 is still used as a measuring stick. Other than kick coverage and maybe the fastest wide receivers who run lots of fly routes, it's very rare to run 40 yards as hard as you can in a straight line. Even when the Raiders were trying to run him down on the long runs, very few had a long straight run at him.

12
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:50am

I don't doubt a lot of defenders could easily run him down in a straight-line contest, but Martin appears to have enough shiftiness to where he gets the defender off-balance while he keeps moving full-speed, and the defenders just don't have enough time to catch up to him. And yeah, very hard to tackle between strength and quickness.

30
by Aloysius Mephis... :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 1:31pm

The Rams' Greatest Show on Turf Offense had this reputation for unbelievable blazing speed, but actually the only guy that ran a four-four forty was Tony Horne, their kick returner. Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce ran four-fives and Marshall Faulk ran a four-six. They looked fast enough to me, though.

32
by tuluse :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 1:39pm

Wikipedia says Faulk ran a 4.28 at the combine, and a 4.35 at his pro day, and it says Torry Holt ran a 4.38.

34
by jimm (not verified) :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 1:58pm

those times fit more with what I was watching...that was the fastest offence I ever saw.

49
by Aloysius Mephis... :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 4:22pm

Huh. Maybe the article was inaccurate, or I simply misremembered.

58
by Marko :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 7:27pm

Well, you were technically correct. Those guys didn't run 4.4. They were faster than that.

56
by Theo :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 7:22pm

Az returned punts mostly.
Their speed reputation came also from playing on their home turf and because they played 3 away games in domes in 1999. Also, their 3rd and 4th receivers were Proehl and Az who weren't slow either.

So maybe they weren't the fastest during a 40 yard dash, but on that turf, they could absolutely put the rockets on.

72
by Dean :: Wed, 11/07/2012 - 9:44am

I neither know nor care what their 40 times were, but I know Az Hakim was one of the very fastest guys in the league, too.

73
by wr (not verified) :: Wed, 11/07/2012 - 10:38am

The other thing to keep in mind is that the 40 is run in shorts. There's
a good chance his speed in pads doesn't fall off as much as some other guys.

4
by drobviousso :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:26am

How many DYARDs is Ben's fumble worth?

5
by snarf (not verified) :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:33am

As a Steeler fan I have seen some bad offensive line play. That eagle o line has been terrible every game I have seen. Vick had no chance last night on most plays. Is his line taken into account?

11
by sundown (not verified) :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:46am

If I were Vick's insurance company, I'd take it into account! I'd charge him double what most other QBs had to pay simply because he gets absolutely killed back there.

I've read that Vick supposedly doesn't read blitzes well, but the linemen themselves are supposed to be able to read that stuff, too, but the Eagles are simply horrible at it. They're a total embarrassment.

16
by DavidL :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:03pm

I kind of want Word Of Muth to look at that game, but then I remember that I don't hate Ben Muth.

15
by Dragon Pi (not verified) :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:02pm

no. the stats don't account for bad offensive line play.

52
by Jerry :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 6:59pm

This. All individual stats have to be looked at with an implicit "with these teammates in this system".

18
by Insancipitory :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:05pm

Vick runs himself back into pressure too. Not to mention his refusal to reassess the play call when the Saints were clearly going to be bringing more guys than they had blockers. His line sucks, but it's not like anyone is helping them be successful. "Get better at what you're worst at because that's what we're doing" isn't a recipe for success anywhere.

77
by Dean :: Wed, 11/07/2012 - 3:00pm

I was discussing that game with a friend on Monday afternoon, and ended up focusing specifically on the pass rush. I didn't take a pen and paper and chart anything, let alone a stopwatch, but by my unscientific count, the fault lay with the QB on 4 sacks, the OL on 2, and both on 1. 2 of the 4 involved the QB sitting in the pocket, having time to throw, and not having the presence of mind to get rid of the ball before the rush arrived. One involved the QB taking a half roll right into the DE without the presence of mind to attempt to avoid him. The 4th was a situation where New Orleans rushed 6, they only kept in 5, and the QB had no idea what was happening. It's his responsibility in that situation to read the situation and hit the hot receiver. He didnt.

Having said that, the OL was still absolutely wretched. I've seen enough Cards and Rams games this year to say that their lines are even worse, but those are far and away the 3 worst lines in football. Chicago and Pittsburgh may have their struggles, but they look like world-beaters and ass-kickers compared to the klusterfuck in Philly.

7
by RickD :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:35am

...and this is why Redskins fans hate Kyle Shanahan.
"On third-and-6 in the red zone in the third quarter, he(Brandon Banks) ran for a 3-yard gain."

14
by sundown (not verified) :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:02pm

It's really tough to like Kyle. His personality is abrasive which already has hurt the Skins on numerous occasions. (The McNabb disaster was only made worse by Kyle fighting with McNabb and his cheerleading for Beck over Grossman didn't help anything.) It's impossible to look at him and not see a spoiled kid who was handed stuff simply because Daddy had lots of pull. Three years total experience coaching in the NFL and he's made an OC? Yeah, that can happen for any hardworking guy who doesn't have connections. Denver fans can breeze a sigh of relief because undoubtedly the original plan was to have him take over for Mike in Denver one day.

38
by JIPanick :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 2:14pm

I always had Gary Kubiak pegged as the heir apparent. It would have been glorious.

47
by sundown (not verified) :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 4:14pm

Me, too. Right up until Kyle was accepted into the "accelerated OC plan" with the Texans. That's when I saw the writing on the wall. Remember Mike being let go from Denver was quite a surprise at the time given how tight he was with Bowlen. I wonder if he would have waited a bit longer before bringing in Kyle had he still been in Denver. I suspect the timetable got moved up a bit with his going to Washington.

9
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:42am

Vikings management should have ordered Leslie Frazier to start all rookies from the moment Donovan McNabb was benched last year, and dared Goodell to do something about the campaign to Suck for Luck.

I fear Adrian Peterson will retire with one season in which he played with a competent passing game.

19
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:29pm

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that Percy Harvin likely not playing this sunday won't help matters.

36
by jimm (not verified) :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 2:00pm

they'd be crazy to put him out there with a bye week coming up. The guy is tough as nails but I think he would be wise to try and avoid some of the contact he so eagerly takes on. I'm all for tough, but pick your spots, the body can only absorb so much punishment.

13
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:52am

Regarding Carson Palmer, he had I think six different passes tipped by defenders/off receivers' hands that popped up into the air in the middle of the field, and none of them were intercepted. Watching that game, it seemed to me that Palmer was very, very lucky, and could have easily thrown that game away much earlier. Then again, it's not like you can really set FO's stats for "tipped ball that luckily didn't fall near defender".

17
by Rickyjohjima (not verified) :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:05pm

Russell Wilson is just barely under Peyton Manning's rookie touchdown pass record with 3 more TD passes than Luck

20
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:31pm

I thought earlier in the season that Russell Wilson was holding back a Seahawks team with a great defense, but he's been impressive lately.

75
by LyleNM (not verified) :: Wed, 11/07/2012 - 12:22pm

Question for Vince, then:

I understand that it's Luck, Martin, Griffin, but how close is Wilson to forcing his way into the conversation? He's had several really good DYAR performances in a row.

76
by Vince Verhei :: Wed, 11/07/2012 - 2:33pm

Wilson just slipped ahead of Griffin for total passing DYAR this year, although Griffin's huge edge in rushing value (Wilson has 10 rushing DYAR, Griffin has 111) still leaves Wilson in third place among the rookie QBs.

21
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:47pm

OK who makes the probowl at running back in the NFC? I can see at least five great candidates: Peterson, Lynch, Martin, Gore and Forte. That list doesn't even include McCoy, who's rather good, crazy good running in the National conference right now.

22
by tuluse :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 1:00pm

DYAR/DVOA says it's AP, Lynch, and Gore and not particularly close right now.

Forte's DVOA has really shot up in recent weeks. I didn't realize that.

26
by RickD :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 1:17pm

It's still early. Martin has the big mo. Right now he's running better than anybody else.

29
by RickD :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 1:25pm

You might have been looking at numbers before they were updated for this week. Martin has pulled ahead of Lynch in DVOA. Lynch has more DYAR, and more DYAR/game (which might be more important, since he's played 9 games to 8 for Martin).

Forte's really not in the discussion.

31
by tuluse :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 1:34pm

Martin and Lynch's DVOA is virtually identical. 17.4 vs 18.4. Although I forgot to take bye weeks into account, so they're pretty much tied.

I know Forte isn't in the conversation, but just a few weeks ago his DVOA was negative, now it's 8.9% I was just surprised.

24
by RickD :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 1:05pm

And you've left out Alfred Morris, who has 793 yards rushing and who was, before Martin's breakout over the past two games, clearly the best rookie runner in the league.

25
by bernie (not verified) :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 1:12pm

I have been really impressed with most of the rookie QBs this year. Luck has made huge improvements from the beginning of the year until now. The biggest flaw in his game that I see is that he doesn't seem to have very good touch on the deep ball. Whether that's a result of having a leaky o-line and little time to properly set himself for the throws, or an inability to judge the touch required, is something I don't have the ability to tell. There has been numerous times this year when Avery has beaten his DB badly, and Luck has been unable to connect with him. If he can get that worked out, there's another dimension to the offense that currently isn't there.

27
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 1:19pm

"In the first half, Gabbert had one throw for 25 yards, and otherwise went 5-of-10 for 16 yards and no first downs with a sack. He did not convert a third-down pass until the fourth quarter, at which point the Jaguars were behind 24-0"

This doesn't even begin to do justice to how bad Gabbert was. The 25 yard completion was with less then 30 seconds left in the half and the defense was in prevent mode, and came right after he had an interception on his half of the field nullified by a hands to the face penalty.

You hate to give up on a guy after less than two full seasons worth of starts, but his body of work so far doesn't look very encouraging. If you're the Jags new management (I can't imagine them bringing back Gene Smith), do you take another QB in the first round a mere 2 years later, or try to get a veteran free-agent?

71
by Alternator :: Wed, 11/07/2012 - 5:21am

Given how generally bad the Jaguars are, I'd trade away a top pick to a QB-needy team and stockpile early picks. There's a lot of holes on the Jags, and Khan is making the right noises to be a good owner, so it shouldn't be impossible to convince him to stick with the drafted QB just one more year, fill in the holes around him, and see if he can develop into an acceptable starter.

If Gabbert continues to suck (which I would expect), you've lost a year's potential development of the replacement, but that year was likely toast anyway. If he can turn into a reasonable starter, even if he's on the lower end of the range, you've just filled most of the holes around him and can make a decision on whether to try and win like the 49ers, or draft your QB of the future onto a much more fundamentally sound team.

37
by erniecohen :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 2:09pm

Concerning this removal of Martin's last 3 carries (or counting them as kneeldowns), does FO always do this? It seems like a darn slippery slope to me. What determines when this rule applies? What happens if the runner breaks through for a long gain?

40
by RickD :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 3:14pm

Slippery slope is the most abused phrase in the world.

Well, ok, that's a bit of hyperbole. But I think it's fair for the data collectors to make a determination that the offense is in kill-the-clock mode and censor the resultant data as being inappropriate for an accurate measurement of what happened.

"What determines when this rule applies?"

Well, the FO guys. That's not a mystery. People make judgment calls all the time in data analysis.

"What happens if the runner breaks through for a long gain?"

Then it probably would not indicate that it was a kill-the-clock play.

There is some kind of idealized notion that in statistics, all data must always be included. That's really not true in practice. Censoring inappropriate data is common to the point of banality. What FO is doing here is really uncontroversial. If you want the best measure of Doug Martin's performance on the day, you don't include the three plays when he intentionally ran around behind the line of scrimmage to burn clock.

50
by akn :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 4:26pm

DVOA is already a black box stat, what's one more set of subjective standards added in? After all, they've already put in a Bountygate adjustment.

55
by Jerry :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 7:15pm

Yes, it's a black box, but you're also confusing DVOA with the preseason predictions. The numbers we see in the weekly ratings are just based on play-by-play, while a lot more gets thrown into the prediction formulas.

I had the same reaction as Ernie when I saw that those rushes were thrown out. I doubt it'll affect much of anything in the long run, but I think those plays would have been counted had they been successful.

61
by Vince Verhei :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 7:37pm

Not even successful. If he had just plunged into the line for no gain we would have counted them. What happened was, Martin took a pitch, ran about 5 yards to the side, stood and waited for the swarm to get to him, and then went down.

You can argue about whether or not those plays should be included. We argued amongst ourselves. The consensus was to treat them like other kneeldowns, in that the only goal was to kill clock, not gain yards or first downs. You can disagree, but I hope everyone at leasts understands that point.

66
by Jerry :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 9:43pm

I hadn't seen them, so your description eases my "concerns" a bit. And I know I'm not alone in appreciating your responses here.

39
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 2:19pm

Another thought, why are the Shanahans trying to get RGIII killed? He's not very big and they seem to expect that he can run through defensive tackles unscathed. I know he's fast but he was the second pick because of his passing ability, if they hope that he'll be in decent shape long enough for Kyle to take over from his pop then they better put the read option plays to bed.

42
by RickD :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 3:18pm

Kyle Shanahan's a moron. The explains more than half of the stupid things the Redskins' offense does.

Last week they used RGIII as a wideout. If you have a franchise QB that you spend multiple high draft picks to get, you don't use him as a wideout where three or more defenders can tee off on him. Ryan Clark actually hit him helmet-to-helmet on that play.

Brilliant!

45
by apbadogs :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 4:02pm

I would say using him as a wideout DECOY (as much as a QB can be a decoy) is fine but then actually throwing the pass to him when he's being covered by more than one DB is not quite fine.

48
by sundown (not verified) :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 4:19pm

Even as a decoy it strikes me as being stupid. He's not Tim Tebow where his legs are the majority of what you're getting out of him. He's a passing QB you want to have around for the next decade or more. He's got loads of talent, let him use it as a QB which is the position he's actually there to play.

62
by dbostedo :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 8:09pm

I guess I'll try to pick a pointless argument, but Ryan Clark did not hit RGIII in what I would call a "helmet-to-helmet hit". He hit RGIII in the shoulder, higher than he probably should have, though not in the head. At that point RGIII's head may have moved sideways so that their helmets might have touched, but I don't think I can tell from the replay.

To me - and I think the rule - that wasn't a helmet-to-helmet hit.

This article claims it was helmet-to-helmet, and has a good replay. But I disagree with their assessment.

http://nesn.com/2012/10/robert-griffin-iii-takes-helmet-to-helmet-hit-fr...

44
by theslothook :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 4:02pm

If you watched the Saints game, its hard to pin all the blame on Vick, especially when that offensive line had as poor a game as I can remember- and bear in mind, this was against THE SAINTS awesome super duper defense!

I think its time to really ask what the heck has happened in philly. Sure, the lazy answer is to say it was vick and while that was probably true early in the year, now the defense and the rest of the team has joined him the cellar. Seriously, that eagles defense looked an awful lot like the saints defense from what I saw- they could not stop the run, they could not make tackles, they got pressure on brees sparsely, could not defend medium or deep, could not cover brees or colston, and got gashed by screens. Just a total defensive collapse.

So really, what the hell happened?

78
by Dean :: Wed, 11/07/2012 - 3:03pm

A lot of really bad football by a lot of people on both teams.

Not limited to, but specifically including, the quarterback.

45
by theslothook :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 4:02pm

If you watched the Saints game, its hard to pin all the blame on Vick, especially when that offensive line had as poor a game as I can remember- and bear in mind, this was against THE SAINTS awesome super duper defense!

I think its time to really ask what the heck has happened in philly. Sure, the lazy answer is to say it was vick and while that was probably true early in the year, now the defense and the rest of the team has joined him the cellar. Seriously, that eagles defense looked an awful lot like the saints defense from what I saw- they could not stop the run, they could not make tackles, they got pressure on brees sparsely, could not defend medium or deep, could not cover brees or colston, and got gashed by screens. Just a total defensive collapse.

So really, what the hell happened?

51
by Vince Verhei :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 6:13pm

Just wondering if Chris Johnson gets credit for his 80 yard TD run when the Bears had their second string defense on the field?

Yes.

I don't think defensive personnel is taken into account, but I'm pretty sure that they calculate "garbage time" at least indirectly. 4th quarter down by 38 I think would factor in to the value of that play in DYAR, no?

Johnson’s run came on first down at the 20 down 39 points in the fourth quarter. He’s compared to what other running backs have done on first down at the 20 down 39 points in the fourth quarter.

The reason I queried the Johson run is that the only reason it happened was because the Titans had lost the game at that point. If DVOA is supposed to be predictive what is the point of using that data to look at the Bears' defense? It wasn't just a prevent defense or some other change in strategy, it was 10 out of 11 different players (and if they had suited another DT up it would have been 11 out of 11).

That’s an extreme example, but there are “big plays” by teams that are way behind in almost every blowout. We’ve always found that including the data from late in blowout wins makes DVOA more accurate in its predictions, not less.

Incidentally, Johnson had -7 DYAR on the day. If you take away the 80-yarder he’s virtually tied with McGahee for worst RB of the week.

How many DYARDs is Ben's fumble worth?

-39.

As a Steeler fan I have seen some bad offensive line play. That eagle o line has been terrible every game I have seen. Vick had no chance last night on most plays. Is his line taken into account?

We can’t do that kind of thing without detailed film study. Every “individual” statistic on this page is in fact a product of what that individual player has done with his teammates and coaches. The only way we could do that for Vick is if Nick Foles entered the game and was promptly sacked four times in a row, which I can see happening.

Russell Wilson is just barely under Peyton Manning's rookie touchdown pass record with 3 more TD passes than Luck

Wow, did not realize that. Remember that Wilson has played one more game than Luck, but yes, he’s on pace for 23.

Concerning this removal of Martin's last 3 carries (or counting them as kneeldowns), does FO always do this? It seems like a darn slippery slope to me. What determines when this rule applies? What happens if the runner breaks through for a long gain?

Honestly, I don’t think we’ve ever done this before, and there was some discussion about it. As I recall, there was just enough time left that they couldn’t kill the clock with four kneeldowns, they had to burn a few extra seconds with each play, so that’s what they did. By the way, On fourth down Freeman took a shotgun snap and kneeled down for a loss of 6. That’s 20 yards of offense the Bucs surrendered at the end of the game.

53
by Intropy :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 7:02pm

Was Roethlisberger's "fumble" included in the numbers or do you remove those sorts of things like you do kneel downs?

54
by Vince Verhei :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 7:13pm

It's included. We remove plays where we don't believe the offense was trying to gain yards or first downs. We don't correct for what we think are official's mistakes.

59
by Intropy :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 7:33pm

Ever run an experiment on which is more predictive? Adjusting is clearly more work.

65
by Jerry :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 9:40pm

Best to minimize the subjective adjustments. Plays like kneeldowns and Hail Marys are easy to identify. Deciding whether or not a call was right is much harder, and it's reasonable to assume that the effects of bad calls and odd bounces will even out enough over the course of a season.

67
by Intropy :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:28pm

I suspect that is true or at least true enough to make the effort not worthwhile, but I would be interested to know whether they had data. If bad calls are random they should even out. If some teams tend to get bad calls for or against then keeping them in is likely more predictive.

74
by drobviousso :: Wed, 11/07/2012 - 11:08am

I think this is the way to go, with that kind of answer available for people who are curious what the result would have been without that particular play.

60
by DGL :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 7:34pm

"Johnson’s run came on first down at the 20 down 39 points in the fourth quarter. He’s compared to what other running backs have done on first down at the 20 down 39 points in the fourth quarter."

So, how many cases are there of first-and-ten running plays from the 20 down 39 points in the fourth quarter? I'd suspect this may be a fairly small sample size.

Unless by "down 39 points" you actually mean "down more than 21 points" or something like that. After all, I don't think that there's a significant difference between a team being down 39 and being down, say, 38...

64
by Jimmy :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 8:23pm

In addition to the small sample size, how often does a team take its entire starting defense off the field? You see teams resting their stars or injured players but not often the whole team. At that point it should be as predictive as the second half of a preseason game.

68
by Vince Verhei :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:38pm

Unless by "down 39 points" you actually mean "down more than 21 points" or something like that.

Yes, this. Just throw the words "about" or "around" or "approximately" into my prior paragraph.

69
by Intropy :: Wed, 11/07/2012 - 12:09am

Is it really "about", "around", and "approximately"? Or do a bunch of factors go into a similar-situation function that determines some sort of coefficient on the outcome of the play?

70
by Vince Verhei :: Wed, 11/07/2012 - 3:11am

Everything goes into bins. So we don't look at plays just from the 20-yard line, but from the 20 to the 39. Similar groups are done for point margin, time remaining, etc.

63
by Jimmy :: Tue, 11/06/2012 - 8:21pm

Cheers for the answers Vince (even if I think the Johnson inclusion is a little silly but I do get your point).