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» Week 4 Quick Reads

Our look at which quarterbacks were "streakiest" in Week 4 includes more discussion of Raiders quarterbacks than we ever anticipated.

08 Oct 2013

Week 5 Quick Reads

by Vince Verhei

In a losing effort, Tony Romo made history in Week 5, becoming just the 15th player to surpass 500 passing yards in a single game. Romo’s 25-of-36, 506-yard performance against Denver included five touchdowns, three of which gave Dallas the lead. On the other hand, it also included one interception and four sacks. Most unfortunate for Romo, it came against an opposing quarterback who is playing on an entirely different planet than anyone else right now. As such, Romo’s interception deep in Dallas territory on the Cowboys’ last drive, which set up Denver’s winning field goal, drew most of the attention after the game. Rather than focusing on the one play he made that led to a defeat, let’s take some time to highlight the dozens and dozens of plays he made that gave Dallas a chance to win.

It probably won’t surprise anyone to hear that the 500-yard game is becoming more common. Norm Van Brocklin was the first to do it, throwing for 554 yards against the New York Yanks (not a typo; the team folded at the end of the season) in 1951. Amazingly, that single-game record still stands, though it seems inevitable that somebody will break it soon. After Van Brocklin’s big day, there was only one 500-yard game in the 1960s, and none in the 1970s. There were two or three 500-yard games in each of the next three decades, and then the world changed. Romo’s 500-yard game was the fifth in the last two-and-one-third seasons.

In that light, Romo’s 500-yard performance seems a little less special. A closer look at the numbers, though, suggests that this wasn’t your typical run-of-the-mill 500-yard game. The following table shows each 500-yard day, in chronological order, along with each player’s basic stats, plus NFL passer rating, and when available, passing DYAR and ESPN’s QBR.

500-Yard Passers in NFL History

Player

Season

Week
Team
Opp

Result

Cmp

Att

Yds

TD

Int

Rate

DYAR

DVOA

QBR
Norm Van Brocklin 1951 1 LARM NYY W 54-14 27 41 554 5 2 128.3 -- -- --
Y.A. Tittle 1962 7 NYG WAS W 49-34 27 39 505 7 0 151.4 -- -- --
Vince Ferragamo 1982 8 LARM CHI L 26-34 30 46 509 3 2 106.2 -- -- --
Phil Simms 1985 6 NYG CIN L 30-35 40 62 513 1 2 82.3 -- -- --
Dan Marino 1988 8 MIA NYJ L 30-44 35 60 521 3 5 68.8 -- -- --
Warren Moon 1990 15 HOU KC W 27-10 27 45 527 3 0 123.1 267 79.8% --
Boomer Esiason 1996 11 ARI WAS W 37-34 35 59 522 3 4 77.1 68 6.9% --
Elvis Grbac 2000 10 KC OAK L 31-49 39 53 504 2 2 99.9 185 39.4% --
Drew Brees 2006 11 NO CIN L 16-31 37 52 510 2 3 91.0 96 15.0% 53.5
Ben Roethlisberger 2009 15 PIT GB W 37-36 29 46 503 3 0 121.9 300 87.9% 83.5
Tom Brady 2011 1 NE MIA W 38-24 32 48 517 4 1 121.6 222 52.4% 85.5
Matthew Stafford 2011 17 DET GB L 41-45 36 59 520 5 2 103.8 132 31.1% 87.5
Eli Manning 2012 2 NYG TB W 41-34 31 51 510 3 3 89.5 75 9.9% 59.4
Matt Schaub 2012 11 HOU JAC W 43-37 43 55 527 5 2 121.7 174 30.1% 90.7
Tony Romo 2013 5 DAL DEN L 48-51 25 36 506 5 1 140.0 223 76.2% 92.1

It makes sense that 500-yard passers have gone just 8-7, because often these quarterbacks were playing from behind the entire game and throwing pass after pass after pass in a futile attempt to catch up. Romo, though, was in a tight game throughout, and had a relatively tiny amount of plays. His 25 completions and 36 attempts were both all-time lows among 500-yard passers. (Romo was the sixth player since 1960 to average at least 14 yards per attempt on at least 30 passes.) And because he managed such great production in so few opportunities, his efficiency numbers are very high. We only have 24 years of DYAR data and about a half-decade of QBR; for games earlier than that, we can complare our 500-yarders using the NFL’s passer rating formula. And in that formula, Romo’s 140.0 is second in this group only to Y.A. Tittle’s 151.4 set against Washington in 1962. Passer rating, though, does not account for quality of opponent. Tittle’s big day came against a Washington team that finished last in the 14-team NFL in opponents’ completion percentage, touchdowns, yards per pass, and passer rating. We still don’t know for sure how good the Denver defense is, but they entered the Dallas game ranked 24th in pass defense DVOA, and it’s a safe bet that they won’t be finishing last in the league in anything.

Passer rating doesn’t include sacks, though, and Romo hit the turf four times against Denver. Largely because of those sacks, his 223 DYAR and 76.2% DVOA (numbers that will change by the end of the year when we know more about how good this Denver defense truly is) are both just third among 500-yard passers since 1990. Here, again, Romo’s late mistakes come back to bite him. His last two plays were a sack and an interception. Up to that point, he was neck-and-neck with Ben Roethlisberger’s 2009 day against Green Bay for highest DYAR among this group.

We have less QBR data than anything else, but none of the 500-yarders on record have topped Romo’s 92.1 performance in this category. You’ll have to ask ESPN to explain the inner workings of this one.

Around here, we tend to favor our DYAR data, and those numbers say that, interception be damned, Romo had the second-best game this week, and one of the ten best games of the season. That is something to be celebrated, even if Denver’s quarterback was just a little bit better.

SURPRISING PLAYERS: There were only three 100-yard rushers this week, and one of those (Russell Wilson) was a quarterback. Wilson’s teammate, Marshawn Lynch, gained 102 yards on 17 carries (just one in the fourth quarter, when the Seahawks were snatching defeat from the jaws of victory). He also caught one pass for 5 yards in two targets. However, Lynch finished just 18th among running backs. He was stuffed for no gain or a loss three times, and only six of his carries gained successful yardage.

It’s a similar story at receiver, where three of the top five yardage guys were also in the top five in DYAR. The exceptions were Dez Bryant (eighth) and Hakeem Nicks (12th). Bryant (6-10-141-2) would have made it if not for a second-quarter fumble. Nicks (9-12-142-0) had no fumbles, and each of his nine catches was considered successful. He had no touchdowns, however; his only red-zone pass was an incompletion on first-and-goal from the 6.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
1.
Peyton Manning DEN
33/42
414
4
1
280
273
7
Through five weeks, Manning has now ranked first, fourth, first, second, and first in Quick Reads in the last five weeks. Here's how far Manning has separated himself from the rest of the field. Going into Monday night, his DVOA on the season was 71.6%. That's more than double the DVOA of any other quarterback with at least 100 plays. The second-ranked passer, Philip Rivers, is closer to No. 14 Terrelle Pryor than he is to Manning. On third downs against Dallas, he went 6-of-7 for 69 yards with a touchdown and four other first downs, plus another play that would have been a first down if Eric Decker hadn't fumbled the ball away.
2.
Tony Romo DAL
25/35
506
5
1
223
225
-2
On deep passes — you know, low-percentage, risky plays — Romo went 6-of-9 for 268 yards with a touchdown, plus a 20-yard DPI.
3.
Jay Cutler CHI
24/33
358
2
0
134
124
10
It was a slow start for Cutler. On Chicago's first five drives, he went 6-of-9 for 50 yards, with more sacks (three) or fumbles (two) than first downs (one). On the last six drives, he went 18-of-24 for 308 yards with two touchdowns and 13 other first downs.
4.
Matt Ryan ATL
36/45
319
2
0
131
131
0
5.
Drew Brees NO
29/35
288
2
0
117
117
0
An example of deceptive statistics: Brees was "perfect" on third downs, completing each of his nine passes. However, only three of those passes actually picked up a new set of downs. He completed passes short of the sticks on third-and-4, third-and-7, and third-and-8.
6.
Nick Foles PHI
16/25
197
2
0
108
111
-3
In one stretch over the third and fourth quarters, Foles went 0-for-5 with a sack. When Foles and the offense next took the field, the Eagles were only ahead by one point. From that point forward, Foles went 4-of-4 for 69 yards with two touchdowns, plus a 27-yard DPI, and the Eagles won by 15.
7.
Andrew Luck IND
16/29
229
2
0
106
103
2
Deep passes: 4-of-5 for 140 yards and a touchdown, plus two DPIs for 55 more yards.
8.
Philip Rivers SD
35/49
411
2
3
84
84
0
9.
Joe Flacco BAL
19/32
269
0
1
81
74
7
Inside the Miami 40, Flacco went 5-of-10 for only 31 yards and two first downs, plus a 17-yard DPI.
10.
Geno Smith NYJ
16/20
199
3
0
81
76
5
11.
Aaron Rodgers GB
20/30
274
1
0
68
84
-16
Remember when the Packers were a passing team? Rodgers had only five first down passing plays, going 4-of-4 for 14 yards with one first down and a sack. Meanwhile, the Packers had 21 first-down running plays, including a Rodgers scramble. Part of this, of course, is because the Packers went ahead in the first quarter and never relinquished that lead.
12.
Russell Wilson SEA
15/31
210
2
1
59
42
16
On third and fourth downs, Wilson went 2-of-9 for 36 yards with one sack, one fumble, one interception, and one first down. He also ran 13 times for 102 yards and six first downs, including two conversions on third or fourth down.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
13.
Michael Vick PHI
6/14
105
0
0
43
5
37
Vick only threw for three first downs on the day, which totaled 92 yards. His other 11 pass plays netted 13 yards. He also ran seven times for 79 yards and five more first downs, with four runs of 10 yards or more, capped off by a 34-yarder.
14.
Colin Kaepernick SF
6/15
113
1
0
40
34
6
For all the attention paid to Matt Schaub's foibles on Sunday night, his counterpart wasn't much better for the bulk of the game. Kaepernick started out 4-of-6 for 45 yards, with every completion picking up a first down. He then failed to complete a pass in the second or third quarters, going 0-for-7 with a sack mixed in for good measure. He then hit Bruce Miller for 4 yards on second-and-9, and on the ensuing third down, he hit Vernon Davis for a 64-yard touchdown. That was his last pass of the game.
15.
Sam Bradford STL
19/34
222
3
0
33
40
-7
Bradford only went 6-of-12 on third downs, but he made those six completions count. Each picked up a first down, including a touchdown, for a total of 72 yards.
16.
Terrelle Pryor OAK
18/23
221
2
0
20
27
-6
17.
E.J. Manuel BUF
11/20
129
0
0
19
15
5
On the Cleveland side of the field, Manuel went 2-of-5 for 25 yards and only one first down, with two sacks. He didn't have a single play inside the red zone.
18.
Chad Henne JAC
7/13
89
1
0
18
25
-8
Five of Henne's passes came with 4 yards or less to go for a first down. He completed two of those throws for 15 yards, with a touchdown and another first down.
19.
Ryan Fitzpatrick TEN
21/41
247
1
2
4
-22
26
First half: 5-of-14 for 31 yards with two first downs and a sack. He made some plays in the second half and the Titans took the lead, but then he turned it over three times and they lost.
20.
Ryan Tannehill MIA
21/39
307
1
0
3
1
2
Tannehill's 9-yard touchdown to Charles Clay late in the second quarter gave Miami a 13-6 halftime lead. In the second half, though, he went 7-of-18 with four sacks. He gained 129 yards, but only four first downs. 91 of those yards came on two plays.
21.
Andy Dalton CIN
20/27
212
0
1
-5
-16
11
Second downs: 3-of-6 for 25 yards, with three sacks and an interception. But hey, each of those completions gained a first down. So there's that.
22.
Alex Smith KC
20/39
245
0
1
-13
-10
-2
Tennessee's half of the field: 9-of-18 for 58 yards and only two first downs. He also picked up another first down on a 0-yard DPI call on first-and-goal from the 1, which is about as inconsequential a play as you'll ever find.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
23.
Brandon Weeden CLE
13/24
197
1
0
-21
-24
4
Third downs: 4-of-9 for 48 yards with three first downs, three sacks, and one fumble.
24.
Matthew Stafford DET
25/40
262
1
0
-24
-24
0
Front zone: 2-of-8 for 12 yards and no first downs, with two sacks and one fumble. That is why he only had one red zone play — his last pass of the game, a 13-yard touchdown to Kris Durham that left Detroit down 22-9 with a little more than two minutes to go.
25.
Carson Palmer ARI
19/28
175
1
3
-54
-54
0
Between the Arizona 40 and the Carolina 20, Palmer went 9-of-17 for 87 yards with four first downs and three interceptions.
26.
Eli Manning NYG
27/52
334
2
3
-83
-83
0
It's not the three interceptions Manning threw on Sunday that's most notable, it's his three intentional grounding flags. The only other player who has more than one intentional grounding flag this season is Robert Griffin, who had one in Week 1 and one in Week 4.
27.
Jeff Tuel BUF
8/20
80
0
1
-95
-95
0
Eleven of Tuel's 20 passes went to the right side. He went 4-of-9 for 35 yards with just one first down.
28.
Blaine Gabbert JAC
9/19
181
1
2
-114
-107
-7
Gabbert had extreme highs and lows on first down, going 6-of-9 for 149 yards with a 67-yard touchdown and four other first downs. Of course, he also threw a pick-six. On second, third, and fourth downs, he was more typically Gabbert-ian: 3-of-10 for 32 yards with one first down, two sacks, two fumbles, and an interception.
29.
Tom Brady NE
18/37
197
0
1
-118
-118
0
Third downs: 5-of-9 for 33 yards with one first down, three sacks, and one fumble.
30.
Matt Schaub HOU
19/35
173
0
3
-142
-142
0
Despite being behind for most of the game, Schaub didn't do much to test the San Francisco defense deep. He threw only five deep pases, all to the left side, completing just one of them for 19 yards.
31.
Cam Newton CAR
21/39
308
0
3
-157
-169
12
Not included in those numbers: seven sacks (one for a safety) and a fumble. Despite his strong arm, he failed to complete a single deep pass, going 0-for-6 with an interception.


Five most valuable running backs
Rk
Player
Team
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Knowshon Moreno DEN
93
1
57
0
67
29
38
Each of Moreno's 19 carries gained positive yardage, though he did have a fumble. His seven first downs included five conversions with 3 yards or less to go, including three third downs and a touchdown. He also caught each of the five passes thrown his way, for 57 yards and three more first downs.
2.
Fred Jackson BUF
53
2
40
0
30
23
7
Jackson had a pair of 1-yard touchdowns and a conversion on second-and-1, plus two other first downs. He also caught four of six passes for 40 yards and three more first downs.
3.
Zac Stacy STL
78
0
0
0
28
28
-1
Each of Stacy's 14 carries gained positive yardage, including four first downs and two 10-yard gains. The only pass thrown his way was incomplete.
4.
Joique Bell DET
21
0
30
0
27
16
11
Bell only ran five times for 21 yards, but all of his carries gained at least 2 yards, and he converted first downs on third-and-2 and third-and-1. He caught each of the four passes thrown his way for 30 yards and a first down. Two of his "failed" completions came on third-and-16 and third-and-22, and the standard for success on those plays is so low that he actually gets positive DYAR for them. It wasn't a real big week for running backs, folks.
5.
Jamaal Charles KC
109
1
37
0
26
17
9
Four of Charles' 22 carries failed to get back to the line of scrimmage, and he also had a fumble. But half of his carries gained 5 yards or more, three gained 10 yards or more, and he had a touchdown and five other first downs, including four conversions with 3 yards or less to go. He caught five of nine passes for 37 yards though he only gained one first down.


Least valuable running back
Rk
Player
Team
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Ray Rice BAL
74
2
28
0
-33
-19
-15
The longest of Rice's 27 carries went just 7 yards. He had two goal-line touchdowns, but only two other first downs, and he was hit for no gain or a loss four times, and also fumbled. He caught six passes in seven targets for 28 yards and no first downs.


Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
1.
T.Y. Hilton IND
5
6
140
28.0
2
99
In addition to the numbers listed here, Hilton drew two DPIs for 55 yards. His incompletion came on third-and-8, but he converted four other third downs, including a third-and-22.
2.
Alshon Jeffery CHI
10
13
218
21.8
1
92
Jeffery's 3-yard touchdown was actually his shortest catch of the day. He had five 20-yard plays, including gains of 31, 42, and 58 yards.
3.
Terrance Williams DAL
4
4
151
37.8
1
66
If anything, Williams' average of 37.8 yards undersells his big-play production. Take out his 6-yarder (which came on first-and-10 and was still a successful play) and his average jumps to 48.3.
4.
DeSean Jackson PHI
7
12
132
18.9
1
59
Including a 27-yard DPI (not included in this table), Jackson had four 20-yard plays, capped off by a 56-yarder.
5.
Torrey Smith BAL
6
9
121
20.2
0
56
Smith also had a 17-yard DPI. Each of his catches gained at least 12 yards and a first down, including a 41-yarder.


Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
1.
Darrius Heyward-Bey IND
0
6
0
0.0
0
-40
It's not just he didn't catch a pass. Five of his targets came with 8 yards or less needed for a first down. He did have one carry for 7 yards.

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 08 Oct 2013

96 comments, Last at 10 Oct 2013, 7:20pm by commissionerleaf

Comments

1
by Paul R :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 2:49am

"Morning, Tom."
"Hi, Rob...c'mon, you stupid thing..."
"Coach Belichick wants us in the film room in fifteen minutes."
"What? Oh, sure...darn it!"
"What's the problem?"
"My bookmarks are all messed up."
"On your laptop?"
"Yeah. This bookmark is gone and when I try to type in the address, it says 'site blocked.' I think someone's been messing with it. I left it in my locker last night and--"
"What site?"
"Football Outsiders. The Quick Reads should be up by now and I want to see my DYAR and see where I rank this week."
"Football Outsi...Oh...OH...Uh, Tom, you don't want--I mean you don't need to worry about that junk. Don't waste your time. Come on, we've got a meeting."
"It's not junk! It's the most scientifically accurate rating system there is. It's the single best way to chart a player's performance."
"Yeah. I mean, no! I mean, forget about last week. We've got to look ahead. Anyway, come on. We'll be late."
"Okay. I'll try again later."
"Sure...later."
"Hey, Rob, can I borrow your laptop after the meeting?"
"Um, it's in the shop."
"Darn."
"Sorry."
"I wonder if I beat Payton..."

3
by Bobman :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 6:10am

That was awesome, though I suspect that by now Brady knows how to spell Peyton....

48
by RickD :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:18pm

Probably a reference to Sean Payton and next week's game against the Saints.

13
by PatsFan :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 9:45am

A friend of mine put it very well, I think. I particularly liked the distinction between improvisation and following a (albeit complex) script.

"Perfect anti-Brady storm. Pressure up the middle, AND LT and LG went to hell in protection. Injuries...No TE outlet...No RB outlet. Played to Brady's big weakness. Unlike Farve or Rthlsbrgr Brady cannot move out and make time. His other weakness is that he is not an improviser. He follows the script albeit 5 layers deep in alternatives but still the script. With rookies getting open but in unplanned spaces, he does not compute. He needs to work harder on adaptation."

2
by gguillotte (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 3:09am

Only two quarterbacks in NFL history with three or more career 400-yard passing games are winless in those games: Carson Palmer and Tony Romo, both 0-5.

Romo has 6 losses where the opponent's go-ahead points came off his turnovers. Drew Brees has 3; Peyton Manning has 2. Even Brett Favre, over any 10 years of his career, had fewer such losses than Romo.

10
by OnTheFence (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 9:12am

Sure... and I get that. But how many QBs throw 5 TDs, score 48 points, and THEN are asked to engineer a game winning drive?

I imagine that most of the time Peyton, Favre, and Drew scored over 40 they came back out to kneel 3 times at the end of the game (cause most offenses aren't capable of putting up those kinds of numbers even against the weak-ish defenses that Indy and New Orleans have had).

Obviously the dude is talented... He's not Brady/Brees/Manning, but I can't think of many other QBs outside of that trifecta that could have played like Romo did on Sunday (Big Ben in other years comes to mind... not this year though). The question is: should a team have to ask their QB to score over 50 and throw that much w/o a single mistake (Escobar, btw, could have COME BACK for the ball too... he's not blameless in this - although it's much more fun to blame Romo just 'cause of the history), or should a team look at their defense and say: we should not be executing a game winning drive AFTER we've put 48 on the board?

It's a chicken and egg thing, but I wonder how many of Romo's bad INTs in the 4th qtr (which I have a hunch aren't that many, btw... you pointed to 3 ultra-elite QBs of the last decade, but outside of them what do the stats look like?) aren't because he believes he has to score more points than his defense will give up... I don't know...

39
by BlueStarDude :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:15am

Good points. And this Romo INT wasn't really a bad decision INT: his pocket collapsed against a 3-man rush and he tripped as he tried to step into the throw, so the pass just didn't have the zip his others did all day.

The guy has led plenty of other 2-minute drives where the team went on to miss a FG or the defense came back on only to yield a game-winning score.

43
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:37am

Romo is the only reason the Broncos had to eke out a win instead of cruising to a win by 3 or 4 scores.

45
by Otis Taylor89 :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:51am

He had Murray wide open for a dump off.
An aside: Why didn't they try to run to ball to take time off the clock before they scored?

71
by BlueStarDude :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 2:33pm

1. Murray being open for the checkdown was my one concern on the play, but there's a great post at Blogging the Boys breaking it down in detail and showing why Romo didn't checkdown: http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2013/10/7/4811472/cowboys-broncos-deciphe....

2. I don't think they have a lot of faith in their run game. I don't either, even though I know they were 10th in rush DVOA going into Sunday's game (I think their variance is on the high side). Their priority, I think, was getting into Broncos territory as efficiently as possible, then worry about bleeding the clock.

92
by quykiemtien3 :: Wed, 10/09/2013 - 12:34pm

Ray Rice's poor performance was as amusing as it was predictable after last week's Flacco interception-fest. The announcers gave us the constant stream about the need to feed him the ball (early and often) and doggedly repeated this mantra as he ploughed into the line over and over again.
But they won, so we can probably expect another 27 carries next week. Insta Portfolio Pro | The Cash Box Blueprint | Instant Site Wizard | Spin Rewriter 4.0 | FB Business Finder

4
by Bobman :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 6:14am

I sarcastically love the most/least valuable WRs this week because it shows just how brilliant the Colts coaching staff is, with FO's least valuable Week 5 WR as their #2 man, getting more snaps than FO's most valuable WR, who is the Colts' #3 guy. The coaches like the fact that bigger DHB blocks better than tiny Hilton. (facepalm) Because if Hilton was on the field more, their lofty running total of 125 yards might have been only... 110 or so. And the passing yardage might have jumped by 50 or so.... hey, that's not a bad thing at all! Somebody better tell those guys about this thing called math.

95
by commissionerleaf :: Thu, 10/10/2013 - 7:14pm

Why is this a problem. If the better blocker is on the field for most of the running downs, that is good, right? The overall snap count is not important as long as Hilton's absence doesn't result in a lot of missed opportunities. Unless Indy is throwing a lot out of 2 WR sets it is just irrelevant.

5
by BJR :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 7:19am

Ray Rice's poor performance was as amusing as it was predictable after last week's Flacco interception-fest. The announcers gave us the constant stream about the need to feed him the ball (early and often) and doggedly repeated this mantra as he ploughed into the line over and over again.

But they won, so we can probably expect another 27 carries next week.

49
by RickD :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:22pm

FWIW, the announcers did notice that Rice was making no progress on his many attempts. They just insisted that the Ravens had to use him as the focus of the offense.

6
by Revenge of the NURBS (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 7:59am

DHB was definitely a non-factor this week, to put it mildly. I recall in particular a well-thrown third down pass which would have been a first down, except it bounced off his shoulder pads.

I will give him the benefit of the doubt that he would have had a TD on that weird play where he and Wayne were in the same spot. Wayne ended up diving in to make the catch inside the 5. DHB was in a better position and likely would have scored (assuming he caught the ball instead of dropping it). That was a weird play though, and I can't imagine that's how it was drawn up.

7
by Ben :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 8:14am

After the game, Wayne admitted he should have run a post on that play, and that he stole DHB's catch.

47
by CBPodge :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:16pm

You mean "stole DHB's drop."

52
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:38pm

+1

As Lions fan, I wish Calvin Johnson would do the same thing to Kris Durham and Tony Scheffler.

53
by Bobman :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:45pm

Agreed--if he caught it--that's a TD for DHB instead of a catch at the 3 for Wayne because of their running angles. I think Wayne said he owes him dinner.

Was DHB credited with the tackle? He was the last guy to hit Wayne.

8
by Stats are for losers (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 8:45am

All the passing was great, but Peyton's 7 Rush DYAR were a thing of beauty.

9
by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 8:53am

Does Manning have a shot at 3,000 DYAR? He's on pace for it, but I have to think he has a sub-100 DYAR game at some point, if not a few.

I wouldn't fault Brees too much for his spotty third-down play. I've never seen a defense make so many tackles one yard short of the sticks. I think against most teams some of those are first downs.

TY Hilton should be getting more snaps. I feel like the Colts want their offensive roles to be extremely generic, so their bigger WR gets the #2 spot and their speedy small receiver gets the #3 spot (that's why they also have a blocking TE who is useless in the passing game, and a fullback). He gets separation, which for all the speed DHB has, Heyward-Bey never has been good at getting separation.

Part of me thinks Knowshon Moreno is playing this well because Manning is checking into run plays, but he looks just more decisive and fast this year. Really impressive year for him (and Ronnie Hillman hasn't been bad either). Makes the pick of Montee Ball seem totally wasted at this point.

15
by nat :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 9:58am

Regarding Manning and the quest for 3000 DYAR, you have to keep in mind that opponent adjustments are currently at 50%. Last week, Aaron told us that Manning's YAR was 920, but his DYAR using 40% adjustments was 91 points lower at 829. If opponent adjustments were full strength, his DYAR would have been 693, on pace for a spectacular 2772, but still well shy of 3000.

The good news for Manning's fans is that we can expect those opponent adjustments to regress toward the mean, even as their weight increases to 100%. Also, he played another excellent game this week, albeit against a low rated pass defense. 3000 DYAR is in reach, but would probably need Peyton to step up (!!!) his game for the rest of the season. He could also make it if those bad pass defenses he's faced turn out to be good ones to VOA's eyes at the end of the season.

On the other hand, 3000 YAR is almost a shoo-in. You gotta love that schedule!

18
by Ben :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:06am

Though, the opponent adjustments may actually get smaller in the future. At this point in the season, any defense that has played Denver will look pretty crappy statistically. Some of those defenses may turn out to be better the rest of the season when they are playing non-cheat mode QBs.

21
by panthersnbraves :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:12am

you had me howling there - "non-cheat mode QB's."

Come to think of it, that TD run reminds me of my son's tinkering in Madden where he would line up in punt formation on first down, and then audible to a fake. It would completely mess up the AI and he'd score every time... Manning even faked out the camera guy.

24
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:22am

I had a long post explaining why this was wrong, but Aaron's spam-trap ate it because it works about as well as a quadriplegic triathlete...

In any event, a normal defense allows about 400 DYAR to a normal QB. Over the course of a season, that normal defense, having played Manning, will have allowed about 563 DYAR. However, after 5 games, that same defense currently appears to be one that would allow 920 DYAR.

So that 50% opponent adjustment is actually about right. Applying the full opponent adjustment after game 5 is basically double-counting. You're over-compensating for opponent effects.

27
by Aaron Schatz :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:38am

A direct e-mail to us that offers an alternative is a better way to complain about the spam filter than a comment hidden in an article discussion thread. I know a lot of readers seem to doubt this recently, but we really do want to make things work better around here.

61
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 2:00pm

The spam-bounces comes with a complaint form that sends the "offending" message to someone on your end. So, basically, I have been forwarding you what's wrong.

Maybe you could dust off the password and check that bin every now and again, and see what on your end bounces those posts.

It wouldn't be so bad, except it doesn't even give you the "defend you're a human" option -- it just blacklists the post. It seems to be a function of length, and it really doesn't like math symbols, *hates asterisks*, and doesn't like a lot of links.

So, ironically, you've designed a spam filter that hates math-heavy, well-cited arguments. On a sports stats site. Good job, guys.

-- oh! This one generated a captcha-challenge, too. Told you about those asterisks.

87
by MC2 :: Wed, 10/09/2013 - 4:03am

You want an alternative? How about giving any member with more than X number of posts an automatic pass through the spam filter? Do you really think that anyone is going to waste years reading your articles and commenting on them, just for the opportunity to hit you with some spam when you least expect it?

Of course, I'm sure you won't implement this idea, since I didn't send you a "direct email" about it, as if that would have made any difference. What a joke.

35
by nat :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:05am

You'll need to do that again. I suspect that you've got reasons for each number you tossed out and some theory going here. But you've failed to make your thinking at all clear. Damn that spam-trap!

Somewhere in there, I'm guessing that you're trying to say that the 50% weighting for opponent adjustments at week 5 is neatly offset by the expected regression toward the mean for opponent adjustments.

That would be cool, if true. I'm pretty sure that hasn't been the case in the past.

64
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 2:04pm

Not quite. The opposing defenses don't need to change at all. Their numbers go back towards the mean, but that's a quirk, not a feature.

Basically, over the course of a season, the Manning Game is worth 6% of their season. At game 5, it's worth 20%. Manning is so much better than the average QB, that the 14% over-representation of the Manning Game makes the other team look 50% worse.

So if you want to get a sense of what the opposing defense is on the whole, a 50% opponent-adjustment is approximately correct.

Also --- Manning is freaking on pass to generate 8x the DYAR of a league-average starter. He's basically QB Eagles playing in Madden AI cheat mode.

89
by nat :: Wed, 10/09/2013 - 9:44am

You're talking about the "feedback" problem. Aaron noted this years ago, when he introduced the phase-in of opponent adjustments. In short, the Broncos make opposing defenses look weak, which factors into their VOA, which in turn factors into the Broncos' offensive DVOA and DYAR opponent adjustments.

You may be right about the size of the effect. The Broncos have put up some insane numbers for passing VOA. As I think I said before, one thing that could get Manning to 3000 DYAR is if VOA decides these pass defenses are much, much better than they've looked so far. That could happen. Only one of them plays the Broncos again.

I'm going to sit back and enjoy the show.

69
by Edge (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 2:28pm

The opponent adjustments aren't at full strength yet for a reason, and I highly doubt that reason is that it makes the dyar numbers they keep printing each week less accurate.

93
by nat :: Wed, 10/09/2013 - 2:24pm

Historically, opponent adjustments were phased in to deal with volatility, and the "feedback" problem. But the phase-in was never tuned to predict the season ending DVOA - not even for just the early games.

It takes some digging, but you can find his original rationale here: www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2004/week-5-dvoa-ratings.

You'll notice that he made no effort to figure out how to tune it to predict final opponent adjustments.

DAVE was introduced here:
www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2006/week-4-dvoa-ratings

DAVE is a tacit admission that the phased in opponent adjustments didn't really do the trick of describing how good a team was.

So, yes, there is a reason for phased in opponent adjustments. Just not the one you think.

17
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:05am

I think it may have been a situation where Moreno, while recognizing the career opportunity inherent in having Peyton Manning handing the ball to him, also responded to the challenge inherent in having the Broncos expend that pick on a running back. If Broncos fans are lucky, Hall responds to the challenge inherent in Moreno playing so well, which makes the roster substantially more deep, and boosts trade opportunities in future seasons.

26
by BaconAndWaffles :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:34am

I can find nothing inherently wrong with your answer, so I will agree with you...

28
by dan harmon (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:46am

RE: Brees' missed 3rd down conversions... Do any of the FO defensive metrics take into account how close to the marker a stop is? Because the Bears might have broke that system on Sunday. It seemed like they would give up 6-9 yards on first down, would drop a back for a loss on 2nd, and make a brilliant half-yard-from-marker stop on 3rd. I swear this happened 10 times...

29
by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:57am

Yup. I feel like this happens to Brees a lot in outdoor games. Somehow, he'll go like 26-36 for about 290 yards, and the team will score just 20-26 points. Any breakdown of YAC home vs. road for New Orleans out there?

55
by ChrisS (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:51pm

Seems consistent with NO scoring only 16 points when he threw for over 500 yards. It boogles the mind that you can score that few points with that many passing yards. Perhaps he was sacked 80 times.

66
by jds :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 2:20pm

"Does Manning have a shot at 3,000 DYAR? He's on pace for it, but I have to think he has a sub-100 DYAR game at some point, if not a few."

Probably no shot for 3,000, for Fox related reasons. In fact, I think he will have a sub-100 DYAR this week, thanks to the Jags defense.

68
by turbohappy :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 2:26pm

As far as the blocking TE goes, they would be using Dwayne Allen instead (who is far from useless in the pass game) if he wasn't on IR.

11
by DEW (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 9:21am

Moreno's performance is doubly impressive because running and receiving--which he's doing better than the other two Denver RBs this year, anyway--aren't even the primary reason why he's their #1 back. As we're reminded every game by the announcers, his ability to reliably help keep Peyton upright and racking up those insane passing statistics (for the counter-example of what happens with a top QB, excellent skill players, and a lack of time to throw, see Ryan, Matt) is what's kept him ahead of guys like Ball.

Of course, if he keeps playing like he has thus far, he won't need to worry about Ball learning to pass-block because he'll stay on the field anyway.

12
by JasperB (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 9:44am

What's up with Pryor's DYAR? He had a pretty good day by the raw stats, and there is no explanatory text for him.

19
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:08am

Only 23 attempts. He also ran for a lot of lost yards towards the end of the game, when the Raiders were trying to chew clock and not turn the ball over.

22
by Aaron Schatz :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:16am

No explanation because Vince writes the column mostly on Monday, and I didn't stay up late to break down SD-OAK. I sent him SD-OAK along with NYJ-ATL last night; you'll notice the MNF players rarely get commentary because he just does the table and publishes early Tuesday morning.

23
by Hurt Bones :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:19am

And sacked four times including a fumble in those 23 attempts.

14
by nuclearbdgr :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 9:55am

Eddie Lacy had a solid but not spectacular day - per the Green Bay Press Gazette: Sixteen of Lacy’s 23 carries came on first down, and he averaged a robust 4.7 yards on those. Plus, out of all his carries, he had only four of 2 yards or less. That included one on a run-out-the-clock play at the end of the half and another in the same type of situation at the end of the game.

25
by N8- (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:32am

Jordy Nelson didn't make the quick reads, but was critical to the Packers' success. 7 targets, 5 catches, 4 1st downs, 2 of them on critical 3rd and longs. 1 of those targets and incompletes was nullified by Suh's tripping penalty.

36
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:05am

Very true. Another thing that DYAR doesn't capture is how difficult some of his catches were. There was one in the 2nd quarter when the score was still 6-0 where he made a leaping reception with the defender trying to wrench his arms apart. The Packers didn't score on that drive, but that third down conversion prevented them from having to punt from inside their own 15 yard line.

38
by DisplacedPackerFan :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:15am

If Nelson can keep doing what he has been for a few more seasons I think the title of greatest sideline receiver could be his. That's a title that Cris Carter might currently hold, but Nelson has at least one catch a game on the sidelines that are just unfair.

46
by EricL :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:58am

Doug Baldwin's in the running for that as well.

But my favorite sideline receiver will always be John Jefferson.

50
by DisplacedPackerFan :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:29pm

Baldwin is good but Nelson has a catch like this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K50vBa1oUj8 in pretty much every game this season (all the sports science analysis clips of that have been pulled even from ESPN) and then there is the one against the Giants a few years back that you can still find the sports science break down of.

JJ is a pretty good candidate against Carter. But Jordy has been putting on a clinic of crazy catches recently.

59
by Sakic (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 1:34pm

The player Jordi reminds me of most is Ed McCaffrey. Great hands and capable of making dynamite catches along the sideline along with deceptive deep speed. Now he just needs to wear short sleeves on zero degree days and he's nailed it.

76
by TomC :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 3:47pm

Landmark moment in broadcasting: Last night on MNF, Jon Gruden said Jets' TE Jeff Cumberland had "deceptive speed."

81
by commissionerleaf :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:16pm

He will remind no one of Jordi Nelson, but Chad Johnson was straight up amazing along the sidelines in his prime.

86
by pm :: Wed, 10/09/2013 - 3:01am

Gruden called Welker deceptively fast against the Raiders. So calling Cumberland deceptively fast is like the 1st time that was used on a black guy

88
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Wed, 10/09/2013 - 9:38am

I remember Randy Moss being described as "deceptively fast."

I believe the context was that because he was so tall, even at top speed, he didn't look like he was running all that fast -- were it not for the DB fading into the background.

91
by tuluse :: Wed, 10/09/2013 - 11:46am

Randy Moss is about as deceptively fast as a Ferrari.

94
by theslothook :: Wed, 10/09/2013 - 3:22pm

If randy moss is "deceptively fast", then that phrase has no meaning.

34
by Arkaein :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:02am

I've been thinking the same thing.

Any chance we can see Lacy's DYAR numbers, Vince?

16
by Charles Jake (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:03am

Surprised Jimmy Graham didn't crack the top 5. Glad to see Jay and Alshon's games were as good as the box score stats.

40
by BJR :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:18am

Still keen to see something on how Graham's season is stacking up historically.

20
by panthersnbraves :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:08am

re Cam's turribul showing - fans are torn trying to decide how much is Cam, coaching, Oline, or receiver gaffs. Off hand, I think it is "E) All of the above," but is there a more objective way of looking at it?

31
by Ryan D. :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:59am

Steve Smith's dropped touchdown on the very first drive didn't help. The Panthers instead settled for a field goal.

Brandon LaFell's drop on 4th and 1 around the 15 didn't help. They got nothing from that drive.

On the other side of the ball, having Charles Johnson's fumble recovery touchdown ruled a sack with a QB "in the grasp" but not yet down, also didn't help.

That is a swing of 14-18 points, potentially, with just three total plays that required a receiver to hold on to the ball or the ref to wait more than one second to rule a QB as "in the grasp" and down.

Steve Smith also alleged that he was interfered with constantly, and then had OPI called against him on the play before Cam Newton was sacked for a safety.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9788479/steve-smith-carolina-panthers-...

30
by intel_chris (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:57am

I wonder about quantization effects in Romo v. Manning. The non-clutch interception aside for the moment, if you look at the generic stats, total yds, tds, ints, then it looks like Romo outplayed Manning despite the loss. I know that more than one viewer of the game thought so, and not just Romo fans. I'm wondering if the same capping effects that apply to DVOA apply to DYAR? Are Romo's key long passes underaccounted for and Manning gets more credit for having more successful passes. Or could more of Romo's yards be considered "garbage time"? Is there any garbage time in a game that is tied in the last two minutes? I'm a long time Manning fan (and longer time Broncos fan), but I think Romo might deserve more credit in that game. I'm wondering what DYAR sees that I didn't.

32
by Ryan D. :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:00am

70+ and 80+ yard plays are not as predictive. So his 500 yard day probably looks a little more like a 400 yard day. That should still register as better, but maybe defensive adjustments make up the difference from there.

37
by Brent Hutto (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:09am

I do statistics for a living and should be the last person to say this but man, by any SUBJECTIVE measure I'd have thought Romo outplayed Manning. At the very worst, a wash.

Although I must say that SUBJECTIVELY it did seem that Romo was throwing to some very poorly defensed receivers downfield while Manning seemed to have a bit higher degree of difficulty. But that's probably down to Romo's insane scrambling buying enough time and confusion for the defense to fall apart.

Oh well, the stats are best used over more than one game...even when that game seems like a lifetime in a day...

33
by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:01am

Big one would be sacks, right. Manning wasn't sacked, Romo was sacked four times. They were only 48 apart in passing DYAR. Sacks has something to do with it. Dallas was also a slightly better pass defense by DVOA coming into the game.

42
by JIPanick :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:32am

Subjectively, and as a huge fan of both QBs, I felt Romo's performance was better because he was beating Denver's pass rush and Denver's secondary while Peyton's line was mostly taking care of the Dallas rush for him. Some of Romo's moves to avoid to avoid rushers were absolutely insane.

Also, Peyton's interception was even uglier than Romo's.

73
by MJC (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 2:46pm

What pass rush? I could catch up on twitter, check all my fantasy teams, eat a wing and clean off my hands, and look back up and Romo would still have a clean pocket and be scanning the field for open receivers practically every dropback. Denver's pass rush was pathetic without Von Miller to begin with, then having Ayers miss time did nothing to help.

82
by commissionerleaf :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:18pm

Romo's protection was really good. He just continued holding the ball even after that broke down waiting for a reciever to get wide open deep downfield, so he had to show off his scrambling ability in seconds 5-8 of the play.

57
by The Powers That Be :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 1:25pm

DYAR is seeing the sacks. Four of Romo for -36 yards, none of Peyton. One of them was a 17 yard loss on 3rd and goal from the 8 yard line. (Of course, they made the FG, so the result was no worse than any non-TD play. But it turned a 26-yard chip shot into a 43-yard attempt). My guess is that that's enough to flip the order.

41
by Otis Taylor89 :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:26am

I asked the same about Jullius Peppers a few weeks ago, but is DeMarcus Ware done?
He really never came close to Manning. I know Clady's backup has played really, really well and Ware was reported to be hurt, but he used to eat guys like that for lunch.
Can't wait for DEN-KC - should be interesting for Peyton to get a little "Traffic" in the backfield.

58
by Tim Wilson :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 1:32pm

Ware was a terror for the first 2.5 weeks of the season (4 sacks, lotta hurries, top 10 in the league in pressures), and then he suffered a recurrence of his shoulder/neck stingers midway through the Chargers game, and since then he has been invisible.

Same thing happened to him 3/4 of the way through last season-- he suffered a shoulder injury, he was forced to play with one arm due to Dallas' lack of DL depth (Ware at DE at 70% is better than anybody else on the team), and his pass-rushing productivity plummeted.

When healthy, he remains one of the best handful of pass rushes in the league. However, it seems staying healthy is becomingly increasingly tough for him, and his shoulder/back/neck numbness and stinger issues are on the way to being chronic.

60
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 1:37pm

It's the worst part of football (beyond the truly ctastrophic injuries which affect health in a major negative way for the rest of a player's life), seeing a great player's performance quickly deteriorate due to injury.

62
by Tim Wilson :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 2:03pm

Yeah, always frustrating and sad to watch. Especially when you have some idea of the theoretical production and greatness that could have occurred ("Ware looks like a beast in camp and the early season! He could notch another 20 sack season!") and know that it is not being achieved due to the human body malfunctioning in an unexpected way.

I'm pulling for him to stitch together some elite stretches again this season, but I think with the utter dearth of talent and depth on that DL right now, it's going to be tough.

77
by Independent George :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 5:04pm

It's worse when it happens early in their career. Do you remember Tommy Harris with two good knees?

90
by bravehoptoad :: Wed, 10/09/2013 - 10:41am

Or, in keeping with the vein of recent Florida Danny comments, Frank Gore with two good knees?

80
by The Ninjalectual :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 6:25pm

In what universe is Chris Clark playing "really, really well?"

44
by tuluse :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:38am

So apparently, the Bear's offense was much better than pretty ok, as I had thought they were against the Saints.

51
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:37pm

This is where context is important in judging things. Against a good to great offensive team, it is most definitely not pretty o.k. to get 41 yards, on your first 5 drives, with a turnover deep in your own territory, even if you have some success later. The reason why is because it is likely that a good to great offensive team is going to build a substantial lead while you start so slowly, resulting in you still being down 16 points with 3 minutes left in the game.

Even advanced stats still do a bad job of capturing this, I think.

(edit) To follow on, I wonder if DYAR could be combined with win probability percentages in a way that yields more insight. What was the Bears win probability, once they were down 13-0, with 6 minutes left in the half? When down 20-7 at halftime? Down 23-7 halfway through the 3rd? 26-10 with 3 minutes left? Is taking over 7 minutes to drive 74 yards,in the fourth quarter, while down 13 points, really a good offensive performance, even ignoring that you turn the ball over on downs?

54
by tuluse :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:45pm

The coolest thing about living in the internet age, what you ask for is easily available.

http://live.advancednflstats.com/index.php?gameid1=2013100600

Up 13-0, the Saints had a 88% win probability. Up 20-7 at half-time, they had a 90% win probability.

56
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 1:03pm

Especially cool for lazy bums like me who want other people to do the research!

I guess what I am saying is that when you are playing a good to great offense, starting in the manner the Bears did very likely precludes the possibility of having an ok offensive performance because, very quickly, your chance of winning shrinks to 10 percent.

63
by hscer :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 2:03pm

I would guess that having a 151 rating on 39 passes in 1962 was harder than a 140 rating on 36 passes is today regardless of opponent, although I did just look at Washington's pass defense that year. How does a team allow 257 net passing yards per game, a 91 rating, and 60% completions in 1962? Besides allowing a career day by a Hall of Fame quarterback, I mean...

67
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 2:21pm

My NFL history is hazy, but isn't that Washington team in the era where George Allen refused to integrate? [paraphrasing]: "I'll hire black players when the Harlem Globetrotters hire white players."

Limiting your potential talent pool in a way no other team is doing is one way to ensure that you'll be historically bad in one or more areas.

70
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 2:33pm

George Allen didn't get to Washington until the '70s, and I've never heard of him having bad relations with black people. As far as I can remember, black players with the Bears and Rams, where Allen coached prior to Washington, got along with Allen just fine, and guys like Deacon Jones, Rosy Grier, and Lamar Lundy spoke highly of him. I think Deacon spoke at Allen's HOF induction, and Allen's grandson was named after Deacon.

I think you may be referring to former owner George Marshall.

72
by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 2:38pm

He's almost certainly thinking of George Marshall (though I'm not sure of the specifics of that Harlem Globetrotters quote).

George Allen seemed to be loved by all former players, black or white. As you said, Deacon Jones was such a close friend that Allen's daughter named one of their sons Deacon (I believe after Deacon got mad that their first kid was named after Roman Gabriel)

74
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 2:52pm

Yes, you are absolutely correct, it was George Marshall I was thinking of. Shame on me for associating that behavior George Allen. This is why I should probably double check PFR.com or wikipedia before posting about such things.

65
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 2:07pm

Any chance we can see Lacy's DYAR numbers, Vince?

23 rushes, 99 yards, 18 DYAR; one catch in one target for a 2-yard loss, -7 DYAR. He only ran for one first down, and only eight other successful carries. He had a lot of 3- and 4-yard gains that often get credit from announcers, but count as failed plays in DVOA/DYAR.

Surprised Jimmy Graham didn't crack the top 5. Glad to see Jay and Alshon's games were as good as the box score stats.

Not in the top 20 of receivers. Caught 10 passes in 11 targets for 135 yards, but only five first downs and 20 DYAR. See the comment on Drew Brees — three of Graham’s receptions were third-down plays that came up short of the sticks.

75
by Sakic (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 3:18pm

McCarthy was given a hard time in his press conference yesterday for his play calling near the goal line and in short yardage situations. It seems to me that despite the reasonable success of the Packer's running game this season the coaching staff (and Rodgers himself with audibles) prefer to throw even on third and short. I don't know if they believe yet that they actually have a guy in Lacy that they can feed in short yardage situations who can get that tough 1-2 yards for the first down.

78
by Trumaine Brock (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 5:08pm

Re: Brees having so many 1-2 yard shortages on 3rd down. Blame that on their horrid Run blocking. So many times in that game they'd have an Offensive linemen completely get blown backwards to have a Running back dropped for a 2-5 yard loss on 1st and 2nd downs. Forcing Brees in a lot of 3rd & longs; and their game plan was to not turn the ball over to Chicago which they were successful at with 0 turnovers. However the inability to line up and gain a yard or two with the running game is that team's biggest achilles heel and will end up hurting them down the road.

79
by Andrew Potter :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 6:15pm

So I've been looking up some numbers on Tony Romo's performance against Denver, for an article idea I had. Some really loopy stuff has come up.

- No single 500-yard passer had coupled that with his team scoring over 43 points since Y.A. Tittle in 1962. (Vikings - Colts in 1969 was close, but the Vikings had three different people throw passes so Joe Kapp "only" had 449 of the team's 528 yards.)

- The Cowboys only ran 54 offensive plays. They scored at a rate of nine points every ten plays. Even in the famous "time of possession" game against the Dolphins, the Manning Colts "only" scored 27 points in 35 plays (0.77 points per play). The Cowboys slightly outscored Denver in points per drive (4 to 3.92), and completely outscored them in points per play (0.89 to 0.69).

- Only Elvis Grbac saw his Chiefs running game contribute less than Romo's Cowboys -- 39 yards for Grbac's Chiefs, 52 for Romo's Cowboys (and even 7 of those were Romo). Next lowest is 58, for Moon's Oilers. By contrast, the Broncos rushed 31 times for 103 yards (though Dallas did get more yards per carry, 3.7 to 3.3).

- No other 500-yard passer got less help from his defense. Again, Grbac's Chiefs came close by allowing 49 points but they did at least force Shane Lechler to punt three times. Romo's Cowboys got two gift takeaways and still managed to allow 51 points.

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by commissionerleaf :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:28pm

I do not understand the criticism of Romo. He threw an interception in a must-score situation when his offensive lineman tripped him and his receiver quit on a route, because an up-to-now no-name linebacker made a diving interception of what was, in fact, a fairly good pass.

Prior to that moment Romo had completed 25 of 35 passes for over 500 yards, to Dez Bryant, an aging Jason Witten and a bunch of scrubs.

Manning's interception was -weird- in that it isn't a pick I've ever seen him throw before... short and inside on a fly route.

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by commissionerleaf :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:29pm

"That's Tom Brady's interception!"

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by merlinofchaos :: Wed, 10/09/2013 - 12:55am

Trevathan isn't a no-name. He made a huge name for himself by dropping a pick-6 half a yard outside the endzone!

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by commissionerleaf :: Thu, 10/10/2013 - 7:20pm

I was just referring to his being a first year starter without a high draft pedigree. The kind of player casual fans say "who" about.