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» The Week In Quotes: August 29, 2014

This week: Josh Shaw lies, Steve Smith intimidates, Le'Veon Bell relaxes, Matt Simms dances, and Clint Trickett kisses and tells.

29 Oct 2013

Week 8 Quick Reads

by Vince Verhei

Trailing by three points with about four minutes to go in the third quarter, the Detroit Lions faced a second-and-9 near midfield. Matthew Stafford hit Calvin Johnson well past the Dallas side of the 50, but after a short run, Johnson fumbled the ball away. That was about the only thing that went wrong for Johnson, though, and he finished with one of the best days we've ever recorded.

The best game in our database belongs to Flipper Anderson of the then-Los Angeles Rams, who caught 15 passes in 20 targets for 336 yards and one touchdown against New Orleans in Week 12 of the 1989 season. Did Johnson's fumble cost him the top spot? Deleting the "FL" from the "Turnover" column in our receiving data spreadsheet boosts Johnson by more than 20 DYAR, which wouldn't be enough, an it's not that simple anyway. Perhaps, if Johnson doesn't fumble, the Lions go on to take the lead on that drive. And perhaps, with the lead, they play the fourth quarter much more conservatively. And perhaps Johnson doesn't get a chance to make so many big plays late in the game.

That's all conjecture and speculation. What we know is that Johnson finished with one of the top ten wide receiver games of all time, and just the 36th 100-plus-DYAR game in our database. There were two this week, and T.Y. Hilton's 6-5-140-2 game against Seattle in Week 5 has also snuck over the threshold with updated opponent adjustments (All three games this season can and will change by the end of the year as opponent adjustments evolve. Johnson's game is well above the 100-DYAR threshold, but the other two are close and could sink to double digits). Even for this pass-wacky era, three 100-DYAR games in a season is a lot -- there were zero such games in all of 2012. Johnson's game against Dallas was the third 100-DYAR game of his career. Only one other player has pulled off that hat trick, and he was also C. Johnson -- Chad "Don't Call Me Ochocinco (Anymore)" Johnson, who had three 100-DYAR games with the Bengals. Only six other players have gone over 100 DYAR twice: Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Jerry Rice, Jimmy Smith, Amani Toomer (no, really), and Wes Welker. As our database grows, it seems inevitable that we'll find at least one more Jerry Rice gem.

Here's the updated top-12 table for wide receiver single-game DYAR. Why 12? Just because we wanted an excuse to list Johnson twice. He's the only name to appear more than once:

Top 12 Wide Receiver DYAR Games, 1989-2013
Year Rank Player Team Total DYAR Rec DYAR Rush DYAR Pass Rec Yds TD WEEK DEF
1989 1 Flipper Anderson LARM 160 160 0 20 15 336 1 12 NO
2000 2 Jimmy Smith JAC 141 141 0 21 15 291 3 2 BAL
1995 3 Jerry Rice SF 136 124 12 16 14 289 3 16 MIN
2006 4 Chad Johnson CIN 133 137 -4 12 11 260 2 10 SD
2000 5 Terrell Owens SF 131 133 -2 22 20 283 1 16 CHI
1989 6 Henry Ellard LARM 130 130 0 15 12 230 3 2 IND
2001 7 Randy Moss MIN 129 112 16 13 10 171 3 10 NYG
2010 8 Kenny Britt TEN 127 127 0 10 7 225 3 7 PHI
2013 9 Calvin Johnson DET 125* 125* 0 16 14 329 1 8 DAL
1994 10 Andre Reed BUF 122 114 8 19 15 191 2 12 GB
1995 11 Kevin Williams DAL 122 104 18 11 9 203 2 17 ARI
2011 12 Calvin Johnson DET 118 118 0 17 11 244 1 17 GB
* Numbers subject to change pending evolving opponent adjustments.

SURPRISING ABSENCES: Your leading rusher for Week 8 didn't come close to making our tables. Arizona's Andre Ellington had 159 yards on only 15 runs. The next leading rusher (non-quarterback division) was Green Bay's Eddie Lacy, who had 65 fewer yards on nearly twice as many carries. No Arizona running back has gained 80 yards in an entire game since last November, but Ellington managed in that in one play on his second-quarter touchdown run against Atlanta. He also had a 22-yarder and two 10-yard runs. Outside those booms, though, there was almost nothing but bust. Nine of his carries gained three yards or less, and he also had a fumble.

It was a similar story for San Francisco's Kendall Hunter. He had a 41-yard run in the third quarter and a 33-yard run in the fourth, but his other seven carries gained a total of just 10 yards, including a 5-yard loss on first-and-20 and a run for no gain on third-and-1.

Among receivers, some of the biggest yardage producers this week were undone by high targets and low catch rates. Atlanta's Harry Douglas, Cleveland's Josh Gordon, Cincinnati's A.J. Green, and New York's Victor Cruz averaged 122 yards between them, but they also averaged 11.8 targets, with a cumulative Catch Rate of just 62 percent -— not bad, mind you, but not often good enough to qualify for the top five tables.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
1.
Andy Dalton CIN
19/30
325
5
1
187
187
0
All five of Dalton's touchdowns came in the red zone, where he went 7-of-11 for 48 yards. Indicative of how badly the Bengals dominated the Jets, Dalton had nine passes within the Cincinnati 40, 10 passes in the middle of the field, and 13 inside the Jets' 40.
2.
Drew Brees NO
26/34
332
5
0
186
190
-4
Brees likely would have been first this week were it not for four sacks. He ripped the Bills on deep passes, going 4-of-7 for 146 yards with two touchdowns.
3.
Matthew Stafford DET
34/47
488
1
2
156
136
19
Stafford made a lot of big plays on Sunday, but not many came on third down, where he went just 3-of-9 for 22 yards with two first downs, one interception, and one intentional grounding call. He also threw two fourth-down passes, completing one for a 2-yard touchdown.
4.
Aaron Rodgers GB
24/29
285
2
0
149
138
11
Rodgers threw 12 passes on third or fourth down, and completed all of them for 187 yards, two touchdowns, and eight other first downs. He was sacked once on third down.
5.
Colin Kaepernick SF
10/16
164
1
0
136
108
28
Not included in those numbers: a 31-yard DPI. Kaepernick threw one pass in the second half, a 17-yarder in the third quarter. He also ran six times (all in the first half) for 55 yards, two touchdowns, and two other first downs.
6.
Jason Campbell CLE
22/36
293
2
0
122
124
-3
On the one hand, Campbell threw only six passes inside the Kansas City 40, and he completed only two. On the other hand, those two completions were touchdowns of 39 and 17 yards. Meanwhile, he threw 23 passes inside his own 40, seven inside his own 20. That says a lot about Kansas City and how they dominate field position.
7.
Peyton Manning DEN
30/44
354
4
3
69
69
0
Say this for Washington, they almost completely took away the home-run ball from the Denver offense. On deep passes, Manning went just 1-of-8 for 16 yards and two interceptions.
8.
Cam Newton CAR
23/32
221
2
0
67
49
18
First three third down passes: three completions, three conversions, one touchdown, 57 total yards. All third down passes after that: Six attempts, five completions, but only 34 yards and no conversions. He also ran nine times for 55 yards and four first downs, including a touchdown.
9.
Tony Romo DAL
14/30
208
3
0
67
62
5
Third downs: 3-of-11 for 23 yards and only two conversions, including a 5-yard touchdown. He failed to convert six of his eight third-down throws with less than 10 yards to go.
10.
Christian Ponder MIN
14/21
145
0
0
57
44
13
Ponder only threw four deep passes, and three of them came trailing by at least 20 points in the second half. One fell incomplete, one was caught for 18 yards, and two resulted in DPIs for 70 total yards. So why didn't he go deep more often?
11.
Alex Smith KC
24/36
225
2
0
56
42
14
Smith only threw two passes to the middle of the field, both within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. One was incomplete, one resulted in a 9-yard gain.
12.
Eli Manning NYG
26/39
246
0
0
52
52
0
Inside the Eagles' 40, Manning went 7-of-16 for 45 yards and only two first downs.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
13.
Mike Glennon TB
30/51
275
1
0
38
41
-3
Glennon threw 10 failed completions. Only one quarterback had more this week, and he plays in the NFC South too.
14.
Chad Henne JAC
29/45
228
1
0
32
37
-5
First four drives: 4-of-9 for 18 yards and only one first down. He played better after that, but by then the Jaguars were already down by four touchdowns.
15.
Matt Barkley PHI
17/26
158
0
1
-17
-17
0
Third and fourth downs: 2-of-5 for 12 yards, no first downs, plus one sack. One of those completions was a 5-yard gain on fourth-and-20.
16.
Matt Ryan ATL
34/60
301
1
4
-22
-32
10
Ryan led the league this week with 11 failed completions. None of those, though, came on third downs — each of his third-down completions picked up a first down. On the other hand, all four of his interceptions came on third or fourth down.
17.
Carson Palmer ARI
13/18
172
2
1
-23
-22
-1
Arizona's second possession ended in a Palmer interception that set up an Atlanta field goal. He then completed each of his next seven passes for 108 yards and five first downs, including two touchdowns. (There was a sack mixed in there too.)
18.
Tom Brady NE
13/22
116
1
1
-36
-43
8
Throwing to his right, Brady went just 4-of-10 for 16 yards, with as many first downs (1) as interceptions.
19.
Thaddeus Lewis BUF
22/39
234
1
1
-48
-29
-20
Not included in those numbers: four sacks and two fumbles. He had another fumble on one of his two carries for 5 yards. He was best throwing to his right, where he went 10-of-14 for 102 yards and six first downs.
20.
Ryan Tannehill MIA
22/42
192
2
2
-53
-57
4
Third downs in the first half: 6-of-8 for only 38 yards, but five first downs, including two touchdowns. Third downs (including one fourth-down throw) in the second half: 1-of-4 for 25 yards (converting a third-and-23), with three sacks and an interception.
21.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
29/44
275
1
2
-80
-74
-5
Third downs: 5-of-12 for 34 yards and only two first downs, including a touchdown, and an interception. He did not convert a third down until the Steelers were down by 18 points in the second half.
22.
Russell Wilson SEA
10/18
139
2
0
-80
-75
-6
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
23.
Terrelle Pryor OAK
10/19
88
0
2
-84
-101
17
Not included in that statline: eight carries for 107 yards, including a record-setting 93-yard touchdown. Between his own goal line and the Pittsburgh 40, Pryor went 7-of-16 for 60 yards with three first downs, two sacks, and two interceptions.
24.
Kirk Cousins WAS
5/9
48
0
2
-94
-98
4
In Cousins' defense, each of his passes came when trailing by at least 17 points in the fourth quarter.
25.
Kellen Clemens STL
15/31
158
0
2
-98
-104
6
26.
Michael Vick PHI
7/9
30
0
1
-106
-104
-3
In Vick's defense, each of his passes came in the first half, seven of them within one score. Wait. This defense sucks. Let's move on.
27.
Geno Smith NYJ
20/30
159
0
2
-113
-114
1
First-down throws: 6-of-13 for 59 yards and only one first down, with two interceptions, both of which were returned for touchdowns.
28.
Robert Griffin WAS
15/30
132
1
2
-190
-164
-26
Griffin had five carries for 3 yards (not a typo), with two failed third-down runs and a fumble. He had another fumble on one of his three sacks. On Denver's half of the field, he went 4-of-8 for 29 yards and two first downs, including a touchdown.


Five most valuable running backs
Rk
Player
Team
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Mike Tolbert CAR
35
0
29
1
43
13
29
Tolbert's contributions as a runner were pretty much limited to a 22-yard run and a fourth-and-1 conversion. As a receiver, though, he caught each of the four passe thrown his way, for a touchdown and two other first downs.
2.
Knowshon Moreno DEN
44
0
89
1
38
-6
44
Only two of Moreno's 14 carries gained first downs, none went longer than 8 yards, and three went for no gain or a loss. The Broncos threw him six passes though, all complete, for a touchdown and four other first downs.
3.
Adrian Peterson MIN
60
1
23
0
36
21
15
Peterson's 13 carries led to three first downs, one a touchdown, each on second-and-4. He also had three receptions on three targets with one first down and a 13-yard gain on second-and-16.
4.
James Starks GB
57
1
0
0
35
35
0
First four carries: 10 yards, no first downs. Next three carries: 11-yard gain, 11-yard gain, 25-yard touchdown on second-and-11.
5.
Pierre Thomas NO
65
0
29
0
33
21
12
Four of Thomas' 14 carries went for first downs, including three conversions with 2 yards or less to go. He caught each of the three passes thrown his way, including another first down.


Least valuable running back
Rk
Player
Team
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Steven Jackson ATL
6
0
7
0
-47
-30
-18
Six of Jackson's 11 carries went for no gain or a loss. To put that another way: His median carry went for no yards. He had no first downs, and his only successful carry was a 2-yard gain on second-and-3. He was stuffed on the ensuing third-down play. He also had five targets, resulting in three receptions for a total of 7 yards, with no first downs, and no successful plays.


Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
1.
Calvin Johnson DET
14
16
329
23.5
1
125
Four of Johnson's first six targets came on third or fourth down. (He converted two of them, including a touchdown.) After that, they stopped waiting to throw to him -- the rest of his targets all came on first or second down. Seven of his catches gained 20 or more yards. Oh, and the Lions threw him nine deep balls, resulting in seven receptions for 187 yards. That does not include his 87-yard reception, which technically was a "short right" pass. In other news, did you know the Cowboys have lousy safeties? It's true.
2.
Marvin Jones CIN
8
8
122
15.2
4
104
Seven of Jones' receptions gained touchdowns or first downs. His only failed completion went for no gain on first-and-goal from the 6 when the Bengals were ahead by 26 points in the third quarter. He scored on the next play.
3.
Jordy Nelson GB
7
8
123
17.6
2
64
Nelson had two touchdowns and three other first downs. Each of those converted a third or fourth down, although none came with more than 6 yards to go for a first down.
4.
Kenny Stills NO
3
4
129
43.0
2
60
His three receptions, in order: a 69-yard touchdown; an 18-yard gain; and a 42-yard touchdown on third-and-20.
5.
Jarrett Boykin GB
5
6
89
17.8
0
45
Each of Boykin's catches gained at least 11 yards and a first down. He also had a 16-yard DPI on second-and-15.


Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
1.
Justin Blackmon JAC
4
10
31
7.8
0
-33
Blackmon did have a 12-yard gain on third-and-11, but his other three catches totaled only 19 yards.

Posted by: Vince Verhei on 29 Oct 2013

77 comments, Last at 14 Jan 2014, 12:28pm by http://futbolbaratas.com/

Comments

1
by WhoDeyluke :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 1:53am

When will Andy Dalton stop holding the Bengals back? I mean, two weeks in a row with this top 2 DYAR is just not going to cut it.

2
by Anonymouse (not verified) :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 2:06am

Calvin didn't score on his 87-yard reception; he was dragged down inside the 5.

5
by Vince Verhei :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 3:04am

Thanks, fixed.

16
by jefeweiss :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 9:51am

Calvin Johnson was tacked near the Cowboys goal line on three different receptions, once inside the five and twice inside the one. One of them set up the Stafford fake spike at the end of the game. I wonder what his DYAR would have been if he had scored on one or all of them.

20
by dbostedo :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 10:30am

I'm not sure, but I doubt TD's factor into it too much. A 40 yard catch to the 1 is probably just barely worth less than a 41 yard catch that results in a touchdown.

3
by tunesmith :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 2:26am

Selfishly happy about Knowshon Moreno being a familiar member of the top-5 club - I always liked him as a pass-catching back and had to deal with a few years of fellow Broncos fans hating him for various reasons.

37
by BroncFan07 :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 1:34pm

I was one of those fans. The various reasons were: 1) Fumbling 2) Not running real fast 3) Fumbling 4) No open field ability 5) Not being able to figure out what is was he actually did well (unless he was playing the Chiefs) and 6) Fumbling.

That said, I'm very happy he's turned it around and will give him a lot of credit for being such a big contributor now. Not sure if it's coaching or just benefiting from Peyton but, again, he deserves a lot of credit.

48
by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 2:10pm

Moreno has fumbled once every roughly 70 carries.

In his first two years, where he clearly had more issues, he fumbled once in every 61 carries.

Right now, league average is once in every 56 carries. So even at his worst, he was better than average at holding onto the ball. IE, the idea that he was a fumbler is absurd.

65
by merlinofchaos :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 7:10pm

Yeah, his real problem was always being not very fast and just not being able to pick up chunks of yaradge.

76
by tunesmith :: Wed, 10/30/2013 - 9:01pm

Yeah he's not a breakaway threat. Once he gets into the secondary, he'll probably still get tackled, and once he's past the line, he likes taking on the backers. But he's a cool, odd combination of a really physical back (loves contact) and a pass-catching back. If you check FO, he ranked highly as a pass-catching back even early on.

4
by serutan :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 2:27am

In addition to the Dallas safeties, apparently the Dallas
coaches believed that Megatron is J.A.G.

_________________
Was (sometimes still is) wr

6
by Paul R :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 4:11am

Last quote I heard from Tom Brady, he said his throwing hand was "perfect," even though it's so swollen you might think Walt Disney drew it.

24
by RickD :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 10:58am

Yes, I think it's clear by now that Brady isn't to be trusted on this issue.

35
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 1:04pm

I find it absolutely incomprehensible that anyone would think somebody associated with the Patriots would not be completely forthcoming with detailed injury information.

38
by TomC :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 1:44pm

I harbor a mild suspicion that the sentiments expressed in this comment may not be 100% sincere.

43
by Bobman :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 1:56pm

Next time you watch Monty Python's Holy Grail, look for the credit at the end acknowledging Bill Belichick's contribution's to the injury reporting aspect of the Black Knight scene. "'tis but a scratch... I've had worse."

44
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 2:00pm

The Black Knight is listed as questionable with a leg. Well, without. Never mind.

57
by Bobman :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 4:09pm

I think you are onto something. Goodell, all angry, calls Belichick to his office in NY. "Coach, the man has a single leg and is shooting arterial blood from his other leg-stump, and you list him as "questionable (leg)"? What the hell are you trying to pull?"

Commissioner, he has one of two legs, which technically makes him 50/50. That's questionable, no? (doubtful being 25% and probable being 75% chances of playing). And furthermore, he HAS A LEG. I didn't say ACL or knee or foot, or he has two nice legs but only one works right now. I said questionable with a leg... The man has a leg and he's 50/50. I can't make it any clearer than that. Can I get back t practice now?

61
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 4:21pm

The above conversation would sound better if Goodell had an English accent.

62
by nat :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 4:36pm

Amazingly enough, the Black Knight played in his next game, missing leg and all. I think you owe Coach Belichick an apology.

7
by nat :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 5:56am

Vince,
Are rush DYAR and receiving DYAR on the same scale for running backs? For example, does a six yard gain on third and four count the same to DYAR whether it's a pass or run? Or are the replacement levels and/or the conversion from success points to yards different?

8
by Revenge of the NURBS (not verified) :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 7:55am

"He played better after that, but by then the Jaguars were already down by four touchdowns."

I'm pretty sure the Jaguars 2013 season recap Blu-ray will include that phrase many, many times.

58
by Bobman :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 4:11pm

They'll opt out of Blu-Ray and go straight to VHS. Maybe Beta. Or Super-8.

68
by Jerry :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 8:19pm

They'll actually get the team together and perform it live for anyone who wants to see it.

9
by bucko (not verified) :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 8:11am

This is one of the very, VERY few times I think the system blew it. Ponder was a joke on Sunday. He took five minutes to go through his reads and his passes were all over the place. Ponder's best plays were his runs when the Packers defense was playing pattycake waiting for the game to end.

13
by uosdwiS :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 9:21am

Completely agree. Ponder didn't throw deep more often because he refused to look more than ten yards downfield until GB was up big. He certainly didn't top the list of problems with the Vikings this week, but his performance was anything but efficient

19
by Revenge of the NURBS (not verified) :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 10:25am

Yeah, I only recently became aware that FO considers good performance when down big late to be a meaningful thing. I don't doubt that their numbers back that up, but it just seems a little odd.

26
by CBPodge :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:33am

The explanation is that they are compared against similar situations, and it is indicative of future performance. So I would guess a 20 yard pass on 2nd and 15 in your own half when down 30 points with 30 seconds left scores you less DYAR than the same pass when down 3 points, and also probably scores you less DYAR than the same pass in the opening 30 seconds of the game.

And, I guess, with offensive players, its about fair - if you are down big late on, either its cos you made a couple of howlers (hi Geno Smith), and will be marked down for them anyway, or your D has let you down, and your perfomance shouldn't be completely chucked out because of that. After all, completing throws in the NFL even against a prevent D that isn't trying any more is still a skill . And it's better than the official NFL stats approach of treating every single yard gained as equal, so that 1 yard TD pass in the final second of the game to win the game is 20 times less valuable in the yardage stats (and overall offensive stats) than a 20 yard pass in your own half in the final second of the game where you're down 30 points.

30
by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:09pm

"The explanation is that they are compared against similar situations"

Right, but its never explained what "similar situation" actually entails, so we really have no idea what they're being compared to.

Down 14 with 5 minutes left could be in the same bucket as down 30 with 3 minutes left.

10
by CBPodge :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 8:18am

I think it's interesting that Flipper Anderson's game is the best receiving game both in raw yardage and DYAR terms.

I'm curious whether that happens with the other leaders? How does Adrian Peterson's 296 yard game stack up in single-game Rush DYAR? Shannon Sharpe's 214 yard game in receiving DYAR for a TE? Or Marshall Faulk's 204 yard game in receiving DYAR for an RB?

I'd really love a records page to be added to the site, with top 10s in stuff like this.

11
by Ryan D. :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 8:58am

Had Calvin scored on the next-to-last play, instead of being stopped at the 1-yard line, how much higher would his DYAR total be for the game?

14
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 9:39am

He actually got stopped inside 3 yard line the 4 times total (ended up scoring later one of those times). He really could have had 4 touchdowns total, which is ridiculous to think about. This same thing seemed to happen over and over again in 2012, which is why his TD total was so low last year despite all the yards. (like what happened to Barry Sanders in 1994).

12
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 9:04am

To answer the question which invites us to ponder Ponder, The Ponderous One quite often does not have an optimal result to the pondering he does while looking downfield, thus leaving Vikings fans and analysts to ponder what might have occurred if The Ponderous One had thrown the ball in the right direction.

(edit) Oh, and if anyone wonders if even advanced stats for qbs can yield results which don't accurately represent reality, The Ponderous One's top 10 ranking this week provides an answer.

21
by jimm (not verified) :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 10:38am

You are an amusing chap.

I've grown accustom to bad QB play in Minnesota - with the exception of 2009 it's been that way since 2005.

I find it very difficult to watch the Vikings these days. The defence is so bad. I hope Allen is liberated today, partly for the pick, but I'd like to see Griffen get a full shot at DE. And please can we see Patterson full time. The kid has some amazing running skills and from what I've seen he can catch the ball. I can't honestly say I have a clue how he does at the finer details of the position, but wouldn't it make sense to get him on the field?

22
by bucko (not verified) :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 10:45am

On a team looking to get better it seems odd why someone with obvious talent isn't playing more often

31
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:32pm

If Spielman hasn't been working hard to see what offers he can get for Allen (not a hard trade to make) and Adrian Peterson (much more difficult, given the contract), then he is beyond hope. By 2016, which is likely, absent an Andrew Luck-qulality qb draft pick, the earliest this team will be good, Peterson will be 31 and Allen 34. Peterson is obviously still HOF quality (he's even an asset in pass protection now), and Allen still good, but they are very likely not going to be in 2016.

I don't know if the cap rules allow it, but the Vikings should be willing to absorb most of their remaining salaries this year, if they can obtain draft value in exchange. Hell, they likely just blew 3 million on a Josh Freeman longshot.

34
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 1:03pm

I suspect Corderrelle Patterson was born without thumbs or something and thereby cannot catch. It's the only vaguely plausible reason I can think of that a team desperately needing somebody at WR with big-play capability is rarely on the field. I mean, I realize WR tends to be one of those slow-burn positions where it generally takes a year or two to become successful, but sheesh, teach the guy how to run a crossing route, dump the ball, and let him run really fast.

15
by Paul R :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 9:39am

In case anybody was wondering, the quarterback for the 1989 LA Rams who put two receivers in the DYAR top ten was Jim Everett, who was also sacked approximately five-thousand times during the 1989 season.
Later that year he attacked a talk show host who mocked him on the air for being "shell shocked," because crippling brain damage was still funny back then.

17
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 9:57am

I remember Everett looked like he was going to be one of the better quarterbacks in the league for a long time, and then he suddenly fell off a cliff after that '89 NFCCG.

That talk show host you referred to managed to be unprofessional, sexist, and immature all one sitting. It both depresses and amazes me that he still has a fairly large following.

33
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:41pm

Who speaks in a more stupid fashion; Jim Rome or Colin Cowherd? I know this question has a "Which qb on the roster should the Vikings start?" feel to it, but I'd say the idiocies they spew are of a different kind. Cowherd is the pompous schmuck who thinks he has it all figured out, by making the worst assumptions about any opposing point of view, whereas Rome's idiocy has a certain Faulknerian stream of consciousness quality to it.

36
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 1:17pm

Well in that Sophie's Choice situation, I would take Cowherd. To an uninitiated listener, Cowherd at least sounds intelligent at first. Rome, on the other hand, immediately sounds like an older guy trying way too hard to seem "young" and "hip". Also, just listening to him talk makes me want to punch him in the face. Kudos to Everett showing the restraint he did.

42
by TomC :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 1:53pm

FO: Come for the advanced stats, stay for the William Styron references.

46
by Bobman :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 2:03pm

Well, the Proust discussion thread got kind of dull and in the Ayn Rand thread it was just everybody out for themselves.

47
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 2:10pm

I hear there's a man in a hoodie dominating the thread on Machiavelli!

56
by theslothook :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 4:00pm

For me, the worst talking heads in order are 1. Bayless, 2 Rome 3. Cowherd.

Although, I'm still not quite sure if Bayless' schtick is purely acting. Could he really be as much of a tebow accolyte/lebron denier as he proclaims?

63
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 4:42pm

Back in the mists of ancient history, there was a time when Bayless was actually a newspaper reporter of some productivity, so I do think a lot of what he does is deliberate, if very obnoxious, shtick.

64
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 4:46pm

I clearly remember in the 1990's ESPN used to have him, Mitch Albom, Mike Lupica, and a Boston Globe writer who's name I can't remember) do some sort of roundtable talk show. At the time, Bayless seemed like a thoughtful, intelligent guy who showed flashes of passion. He seems to have undergone some sort of Palpatine-like transformation into the raving, reactionary, caricature we see today.

18
by Revenge of the NURBS (not verified) :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 10:06am

I'm not going to fault a guy for assaulting Jim Rome.

23
by jimm (not verified) :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 10:49am

didn't he keep calling Everette Chris?

It's a shame such idiots get a platform.

25
by Paul R :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:05am

Not to mention that Chris Evert would probably destroy Jim Rome in any athletic competition he chose.

And she's a smokin' hot babe! She can...serve to my...um...backhand...any time.
Sorry. Don't speak tennis.

27
by CBPodge :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:35am

The tennis phrase you are looking for is "new balls, please."

32
by nojo :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:38pm

something something Drop Shot something....

28
by FrontRunningPhinsFan :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:50am

I don't know how to paste links, but you can definitely see the interview on YouTube. Everett suggests the producer go to a production break and tells Rome he's going to jump over the table at him if Rome doesn't stop being such a jerk. Rome continues. Everrett throws the table out of the way but stops before kicking Rome's you-know-what.

Kudos to Everett for being the bigger man and not beating that snarky little jerk's face in. Although I wish he had. That guy just BEGS to get all sorts of comeuppance someday. I hope there are video cameras when it happens.

39
by Ryan :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 1:46pm

Sigh...you could do worse than to be compared to Chris Evert, one of the finest American athletes of all time.

Of course, the true irony is that the "Ice Maiden" was known for keeping her cool when the pressure was highest...

41
by TomC :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 1:52pm

Well, Jim Everett did keep his head enough to not actually strangle Rome (which he would have been perfectly justified in doing).

45
by Bobman :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 2:00pm

If Everett had (A) slightly less control of his temper or (B) watched more pro wrestling, we probably wouldn't have that tool Jim Rome to kick around anymore. It was a poor showing by both men, but only one of their stupid actions was premeditated. Personally, I'd have sucker-punched him after the camera was off....

29
by Andy (not verified) :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:51am

How does Wilson's game compare for lowest DYAR amongst QBs without a turnover? And especially with two TDs?

40
by TomC :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 1:51pm

Jimmy Smith gained 291 yards against the 2000 Ravens?! That is almost literally unbelievable.

49
by greybeard :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 2:34pm

I believe the DPIs are taken into account when DYAR and DVOA is calculated. Are the holding and automatic first downs also taken into account? They are as effective and important to sustain a drive as DPIs.

51
by Vince Verhei :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 2:55pm

DPIs yes, holding no. Sometimes you can draw a holding penalty without even being the target on a play, or without a pass even being thrown. It's a gray area, but the idea behind DYAR/DVOA is to see what happens when the ball gets thrown to a guy.

53
by greybeard :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 3:09pm

Thanks for answering.
I can understand not awarding the WR. How about QB though? Does he get the credit? Given he gets the blame for sacks and interceptions it just makes sense that he gets the credit.
Also I have seen many times that a QB will throw to the guy that was held to get a call. And sometime the guy that was held was their primary target and there is no pass thrown. Either was. The QBs success is interfered with and the team gets a first down.

50
by Vince Verhei :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 2:53pm

Calvin Johnson was tacked near the Cowboys goal line on three different receptions, once inside the five and twice inside the one. One of them set up the Stafford fake spike at the end of the game. I wonder what his DYAR would have been if he had scored on one or all of them.

If I've done the calculations right, 153 DYAR.

Are rush DYAR and receiving DYAR on the same scale for running backs? For example, does a six yard gain on third and four count the same to DYAR whether it's a pass or run? Or are the replacement levels and/or the conversion from success points to yards different?

In your example, a 6-yard run would be compared to other RB runs on third-and-4, and a 6-yard reception would be compared to other RB targets on third-and-4.

I don't know how to paste links, but you can definitely see the interview on YouTube. Everett suggests the producer go to a production break and tells Rome he's going to jump over the table at him if Rome doesn't stop being such a jerk. Rome continues. Everrett throws the table out of the way but stops before kicking Rome's you-know-what.

I was watching a baseball game on ESPN when that happened. They cut in with breaking news (since it was plugging their own program) that Jim Everett had nearly attacked Jim Rome. They showed the entire incident, start to finish, then went back to the baseball game. There was an awkward pause, then Joe Morgan just said, "Well, he told that guy not to say it again..."

Jimmy Smith gained 291 yards against the 2000 Ravens?! That is almost literally unbelievable.

Smith had three 40-plus-yard touchdowns that day. But you know what's even more unbelievable? The Jaguars had a 23-7 lead at halftime, but the Ravens rallied in the second half thanks to five touchdown passes from TONY BANKS, of all people.

55
by nat :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 3:43pm

In your example, a 6-yard run would be compared to other RB runs on third-and-4, and a 6-yard reception would be compared to other RB targets on third-and-4.
Thanks for the answer. That's what I thought. Does the same apply to the conversion factor for turning success points into yards, I wonder? Is there one factor for RB rushes and another for RB receptions? I suspect so.

I think this means that we can compare RBs for their rushing DYAR, or compare them for their receiving DYAR, but can't quite simply add those two numbers together to compare their total value.

Oh, it's probably close enough for comparing similar backs. But I wonder how well it applies to comparing a pure runner to a back who mostly got his value via receptions.

59
by Bobman :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 4:16pm

Vince,
Pretty sure I was watching the same baseball game, but don't recall it that well. Did Morgan really say that? I can hear his inflection in my mind as he says it. That's gotta be worthy of the sportscaster HOF.

67
by Vince Verhei :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 7:56pm

It's been a couple of decades, I may not be remembering his exact words. But his tone was definitely "Rome had it coming and I don't blame Everett at all."

52
by Ugarles (not verified) :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 3:06pm

From the same game:
Drew Brees "Brees likely would have been first this week were it not for four sacks."
Thad Lewis "Not included in those numbers: four sacks..."

Is the difference that the sacks weren't held "against" Brees, but that you assume if Brees hadn't gone down, he'd have had better numbers?

54
by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 3:40pm

I think what the 'not included in those numbers' is that statline next to his name, not the DYAR total, which does include the sack numbers.

66
by Vince Verhei :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 7:54pm

DYAR/DVOA includes sacks, for Brees, Lewis, and everyone else. The table doesn't show sacks though, so in extreme examples I point them out. Should have mentioned them for Russell Wilson, now that I think about it.

71
by Eddo :: Wed, 10/30/2013 - 9:49am

Vince, it might be helpful to change your phrasing of "not included in these numbers". I've been reading FO for year and even I have to stop and parse that sentence to make sure you aren't saying "sacks don't count towards DYAR", which I know is untrue.

Maybe something like "not shown in the table"?

69
by AnonA (not verified) :: Wed, 10/30/2013 - 6:04am

I really wish I could see Ponders DYAR before the last 5 mins of the game and maybe even without that phantom DPI penalty that resulted in the TD before the half.

I'm baffled he was a top 10 QB this week with that performance. I have to think there was some sort of error when typing this into the Computer, if nothing else but for the sake of me still believing in myself as a somewhat decent albeit amateur evaluator.

70
by DisplacedPackerFan :: Wed, 10/30/2013 - 8:56am

I can't complain too much at the phantom PI at the end of the half. GB got one too. The refs were actually pretty consistent in what they called. If it was close, it was called that game.

The last two drives, even with the game out of hand while discounted some by the situation, do still count, and they do still bother me. It's not the first time I've seen this team give up "garbage time, it doesn't matter" scoring. I've also seen that translate into, "crap it's a game now, crap we just lost" heck look at the Bengals game this year. So yeah it feels like those drives don't matter, and yes, a lot of one of them was a PI on Tramon Williams, recall that he got nicknamed Admiral Armbar for a reason too.

Swap those two drives into other spots in the game and Ponder looks like he played a bit over average. People are putting too much into the 10th place ranking. He had 44 passing and 13 rushing DYAR. That would have been 13th in week 7, 10 in 6, 13 in 5, 12 in 4, 15 in 3. This week was a bit down all around for QBs.

72
by Will Allen :: Wed, 10/30/2013 - 10:34am

This may be a situation where it is fully ratonal to think that Ponder is being overvalued by the metrics, while the Packers D is being correctly valued by the metrics. A defense which gets in the habit of playing without intensity is a defense which is going to lose a game when it should not, but a qb who only gets productive when the defense hits the snooze button is going to keep losing.

73
by tuluse :: Wed, 10/30/2013 - 12:26pm

There are a lot of byes this week. If you take 6 QBs out of the running, others are going to get boosted.

74
by Vince Verhei :: Wed, 10/30/2013 - 3:12pm

DYAR by quarter:

1st: 1 (one pass)
2nd: 33 (14 passes)
3rd: -14 (one pass play, a sack)
4th: 22 (10 passes)

Yes, he had two pass plays combined in the first and third quarters. That's freakin' weird. I'm going to assume their were some long Green Bay drives in that game.

75
by Will Allen :: Wed, 10/30/2013 - 3:27pm

The Packers converted on something like 13 of 18 third and fourth downs, to answer your question. The Vikings defense was worse than Ponder, as bad as Ponder was.

78
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