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04 Nov 2013

Week 9 Quick Reads

by Vince Verhei

Another week of the 2013 season, another assault on the all-time single-game DYAR record books. Andre Johnson's 229 yards and three touchdowns on Sunday night was one of the top 20 wide receiver games we've analayzed since 1989. The real headliner, though, was Nick Foles, who tied an all-time record with seven touchdown passes in one game, and became just the third man to do so without an interception. He also averaged 14.5 yards per pass, best of any member of the seven touchdown club. It wasn't the best performance we've ever measured, but when we look at the 10 best games ever, we find Foles -- um, wait. No we don't. He's not in the top 10. What about the top 20? 30? 40? Anyone? Bueller?

Believe it or not, including playoff games, Foles' performance against Oakland ranks just sixtieth among quarterbacks in our database. In fact, it was just the fourth-best game this year, behind Aaron Rodgers' destruction of Washington in Week 2; Drew Brees' burial of Miami in Week 4; and Peyton Manning outlasting Tony Romo and the Cowboys in a Week 5 shootout, which is now the second-best regular-season quarterback performance we have on record. (Romo, by the way, had the fifth-best game of the year in that Broncos defeat.)

So why was Foles' special day not quite as special as it appeared on the surface? Opponent adjustments have a little to do with it, but only a little. The Raiders entered the game ranked 20th in pass defense DVOA, hardly a creampuff. No, the biggest issue is simply one of opportunity. Foles was pulled early in the fourth quarter, and finished with only 32 total plays (pass attempts + sacks + runs). Only nine of the 60 quarterbacks with at least 260 DYAR in a game had fewer plays; the average of the group is 39.8. At the rate he produced on Sunday, an extra eight plays for Foles would have meant a total of 324 DYAR, which would have been one of the ten best games ever.

As long as we're playing the what-if game, let's get silly and take it as far as we can go. Foles only had two plays in the fourth quarter: a sack and an incompletion. His DYAR at the end of three quarters was 278. If he had played the entire fourth quarter, and played as well then as he did in the game's first 45 minutes, he'd have finished with 371 DYAR, that would have been the second-best game in our records. (It still would have been a ways behind Kurt Warner's performance against Green Bay in the wild card round of the 2009 season, a game that may not be topped in our lifetime.) So while Foles' overall performance wasn't close to the top of our lists, it might have been the best three-quarters of a game we've ever witnessed.

As for Johnson, he had one of the 20 best games we've ever measured, but only the second-best of the season. It wasn't even the best game in the past nine days. Such is life. The following table shows the updated top 20 wide receiver games in our database. This time we've also included playoff games.

Top 20 Single-Game DYAR for WRs, 1989-2013
Rank Year Player Team Total DYAR Rec DYAR Rush DYAR Total YAR Rec YAR Rush YAR Pass Rec Yds TD WEEK DEF
1 1989 Flipper Anderson LARM 160 160 0 154 154 0 20 15 336 1 12 NO
2 2000 Jimmy Smith JAC 141 141 0 129 129 0 21 15 291 3 2 BAL
3 2004 Reggie Wayne IND 137 137 0 125 125 0 11 10 221 2 18** DEN
4 1995 Jerry Rice SF 136 124 12 137 126 11 16 14 289 3 16 MIN
5 2006 Chad Johnson CIN 133 137 -4 126 130 -4 12 11 260 2 10 SD
6 2000 Terrell Owens SF 131 133 -2 134 135 -2 22 20 283 1 16 CHI
7 1989 Henry Ellard LARM 130 130 0 122 122 0 15 12 230 3 2 IND
8 2001 Randy Moss MIN 129 112 16 133 118 15 13 10 171 3 10 NYG
9 2013 Calvin Johnson* DET 127 127 0 121 121 0 16 14 329 1 8 DAL
10 2010 Kenny Britt TEN 127 127 0 123 123 0 10 7 225 3 7 PHI
11 1994 Andre Reed BUF 122 114 8 108 100 8 19 15 191 2 12 GB
12 1995 Kevin Williams DAL 122 104 18 126 108 18 11 9 203 2 17 ARI
13 2011 Calvin Johnson DET 118 118 0 114 114 0 17 11 244 1 17 GB
14 2005 Steve Smith CAR 116 104 13 109 98 11 13 12 218 2 19** CHI
15 2006 Reggie Wayne IND 116 116 0 106 106 0 11 10 138 3 8 DEN
16 2013 Andre Johnson* HOU 116 116 0 115 115 0 13 9 229 3 9 IND
17 2001 David Patten*** NE 115 47 25 123 54 26 5 4 117 2 6 IND
18 2007 Terrell Owens DAL 114 114 0 97 97 0 11 8 173 4 11 WAS
19 2011 Wes Welker NE 112 100 12 120 108 12 20 16 217 2 3 BUF
20 1998 Derrick Alexander KC 111 111 0 111 111 0 8 5 173 1 12 SD
* Final numbers can and will change as opponent adjustments evolve.
** Playoffs -- *** Includes 60-yard touchdown pass.

SURPRISING ABSENCES: This was one of the biggest weeks of the year for big rushing totals, and conveniently, most of those players made our tables. Minnesota's Adrian Peterson (25-140-1) and Tennessee's Chris Johnson (23-150-2) both came up just a bit short. Chris Ivory of the Jets (18-139-1) gained 120 yards on four big runs, but his other 14 carries all went for 4 yards or less, with an average gain of 1.4. Washington's Alfred Morris (25-121-1) had a similar day, though not as extreme: 55 yards on three big runs, 3.0-yard average on his other 22 carries. The biggest problem for Buffalo's C.J. Spiller (12-116-0) and Fred Jackson (16-77-0) was each other; together, they combined for 58 DYAR, which would have made our tables easily.

There were a lot of big receiving games this week, most of them coming from the Eagles and Patriots. Rob Gronkowski (10-9-143-1) and DeSean Jackson (6-5-150-1) were knocked out of the tables by their own teammates. Pierre Garcon (11-7-172-0) just had too many incompletions to make the list this week. He also got a lot of production in long-yardage situations — he had catches of 16 and 17 yards that failed to pick up a new series of downs.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
1.
Nick Foles PHI
22/28
406
7
0
261
255
6
Ignoring pass interference calls, the average quarterback this season is completing 39 percent of his Deep passes (those that travel at least 16 yards past the line of scrimmage) for 11.2 yards per throw. Foles completed 7-of-9 deep balls against Oakland for 241 yards and three touchdowns. He threw one other pass that went exactly 15 yards downfield. It was caught in the end zone for another touchdown.
2.
Tom Brady NE
23/33
432
4
0
212
212
0
On deep passes, Brady was even better than Foles, going 8-of-11 for 290 yards and four touchdowns, plus two DPIs for 18 and 22 yards.
3.
Case Keenum HOU
20/33
350
3
0
195
190
4
Boy, this really was the week of the long bomb, wasn't it? Keenum went 5-of-8 for 182 yards and two touchdowns on deep passes.
4.
Mike Glennon TB
17/23
168
2
0
124
125
0
Tampa Bay's first drive of the second half resulted in a field goal and a 24-7 lead. Up to that point, Glennon had gone 11-of-15 for 137 yards and nine first downs, including two touchdowns. He had also thrown for DPIs of 13 and 22 yards, and given up one sack. That's 11 first downs total. He didn't throw for another first down the rest of the game, including overtime, going 6-of-8 for just 31 yards, plus two sacks.
5.
Philip Rivers SD
29/46
341
2
2
109
106
3
Rivers was really good at either end of the field, but strangely horrible between the 40s, where he went 7-of-15 for 68 yards with four first downs, two interceptions, and one sack.
6.
Jason Campbell CLE
23/35
262
3
0
103
97
6
Campbell killed it in the red zone, going 4-of-5 for 29 yards with three touchdowns.
7.
Andrew Luck IND
18/40
271
3
0
89
89
0
First eight third downs: 1-of-7, 6 yards, one sack, no conversions. Last four third downs: four completions, four conversions (including a touchdown), 44 yards.
8.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
28/48
400
4
2
88
92
-4
Roethlisberger got off to a weirdly ineffective start against New England. On Pittsburgh's first four drives, he went 6-of-8 for 72 yards, which sounds great, but somehow in that stretch he threw for only one first down. That's largely because he threw for a gain of 29 on third-and-30. Meanwhile, he gave up two sacks, one fumble, and an interception.
9.
Josh McCown CHI
22/41
272
2
0
71
62
9
10.
Ryan Tannehill MIA
20/28
208
0
0
69
59
10
On Cincinnati's half of the field, Tannehill went 6-of-10 for 51 yards with only two first downs, plus one sack.
11.
Tony Romo DAL
34/51
337
2
1
59
55
4
The Cowboys' offense, at this point, is pretty much entirely Tony Romo. Dallas running backs had eight carries in this game. One of those was a 27-yard gain in the first quarter; the other seven runs gained a total of 1 yard. Four of them went for no gain or a loss. Dallas' second play of the second half was a 2-yard run by Lance Dunbar. That was the last time a Dallas running back ran for positive yardage in the entire game. Dallas' last five drives consisted of three runs (one a Romo scramble) and 26 pass plays. On those five drives, Romo went 16-for-26 for 145 yards and six first downs, inlcuing the game-winning touchdown.
12.
Russell Wilson SEA
19/26
217
2
2
46
28
18
The deeper Wilson threw, the more accurate he was. On passes within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, he went 10-of-15 for 62 yards with one touchdown, one other first down, and one interception. On passes that traveled 6 to 10 yards downfield, he went 4-of-6 for 42 yards with one touchdown, three other first downs, and one interception. And on passes deeper than that, he went 5-of-5 for 113 yards, with every throw going for a first down, plus a 29-yard DPI.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
13.
Kellen Clemens STL
20/34
210
1
0
39
33
6
Clemens was really, really great throwing to the middle of the field, going 11-of-11 for 128 yards with one touchdown, seven other first downs, and only one unsuccessful play. Process of elimination will tell you he was really, really awful throwing to either side. He was also sacked twice and fumbled once.
14.
Matthew McGloin OAK
7/15
87
0
0
23
23
0
All of McGloin's passes came with a 36-point deficit in the fourth quarter. He moved the ball OK in the middle of the field, but all five of his red-zone passes fell incomplete.
15.
Joe Flacco BAL
24/41
250
2
1
20
13
7
Forty-one passes, and only two went to the middle of the field. One was a 23-yard gain on third-and-7; the other was intercepted.
16.
Robert Griffin WAS
23/32
291
0
1
19
33
-14
Third downs: 8-of-9 for 100 yards with six first downs. He ran five times for 18 yards. His rushing DYAR was so low because he failed to convert third downs twice, and also had a 2-yard loss.
17.
Drew Brees NO
30/51
382
2
2
12
12
0
Inside the the Jets' 40, Brees went 4-of-9 for 16 yards and only one first down (a 10-yard touchdown) and a sack.
18.
Geno Smith NYJ
8/19
115
0
0
8
4
4
These are some of the most ridiculous splits I've seen all year. Smith started out 2-of-9 for 6 yards with no first downs and a sack. His next five passes were all complete, each for a first down, for 108 total yards. And then he finished 1-of-5 for 1 yard with no more first downs and a sack. And that may not be the craziest part of this game. His eight completions gained a total — a TOTAL — of 5 yards in the air, and 110 yards after the catch. His deepest completion was caught a whopping 6 yards past the line of scrimmage.
19.
Cam Newton CAR
23/36
242
1
2
4
-5
9
On deep passes, Newton went a very un-Cam-like 1-of-9 for 21 yards with two interceptions. Throwing to the short right zone, though, he went 10-of-11 for 111 yards with one touchown and six other first downs.
20.
Jeff Tuel BUF
18/39
234
1
2
0
0
0
Tuel played well in his own end, but across the 50, he went 2-of-14 for 6 yards with no first downs and one very, very costly pick-six. His only first down on Kansas City's side of the field came on a DPI that gained zero yards.
21.
Christian Ponder MIN
25/37
236
1
1
-9
-17
9
Ponder would have ranked about a dozen spots higher, but he was sacked twice, and fumbled both times.
22.
Alex Smith KC
19/29
124
0
0
-12
-15
3
Third downs: 5-of-9 for 10 yards (not a typo) with two first downs and a sack.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
23.
Matt Ryan ATL
20/27
219
1
3
-36
-32
-4
Throwing to his right, Ryan went 7-of-14 for 76 yards with four first downs and three interceptions, including a pick-six.
24.
Jake Locker TEN
13/22
185
0
2
-78
-91
13
The Titans ran ten plays inside the St. Louis 40-yard line, and not one of them was a pass. Of course, those ten runs gained 78 yards and four touchdowns (including a 5-yard run by Locker), so it's hard to argue with the results.
25.
Seneca Wallace GB
11/19
114
0
1
-87
-87
0
26.
Andy Dalton CIN
32/53
338
0
3
-102
-109
7
Dalton gets an enormous boost because, with updated opponent adjustments, the Dolphins have the fifth-best passing defense in the league. That big boost, though, only bumps him up to next-to-last this week. His third-down results were, um, a bit polar. He converted 10 of his 18-third down plays, and those 10 conversions averaged 18.3 yards apiece. His eight failures, though, included three sacks, one fumble (recovered by Miami), one game-losing safety, and pick-six. Six of those failed plays came with 4 yards or less needed for a first down.
27.
Terrelle Pryor OAK
23/41
288
0
2
-118
-151
32
On Philadelphia's side of the field, Pryor went 4-of-11 for 21 yards with one first down, one fumbled snap, and two interceptions.


Five most valuable running backs
Rk
Player
Team
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Rashad Jennings OAK
102
1
74
0
68
50
18
Each of Jennings' 15 carries gained positive yardage, which is very rare for a runner with more than a half-dozen or so runs. He had three 10-yard runs and three other first downs. He had seven receptions in ten targets, picking up three more first downs in the process.
2.
Mike James TB
158
0
8
0
67
47
0
James carried the ball 28 times against Seattle, and failed to gain positive yardage just once. He had five 10-yard runs and eight first downs on the day. He also gets 20 DYAR passing for his 2-yard jump-ball touchdown to Tom Crabtree.
3.
Marshawn Lynch SEA
125
0
16
0
54
64
-10
Lynch had 21 carries against Tampa Bay and gained 10 yards or more seven times, with 10 first downs on the ground. That ties LeSean McCoy in Week 1 for the most rushing first downs in a game this year — and McCoy had ten more carries in that game than Lynch did against the Bucs.
4.
Giovani Bernard CIN
79
2
25
0
53
47
6
Bernard caught each of the four passes thrown his way, and though none gained first downs, three gained successful yardage. He only ran the ball nine times against Miami, but scored touchdowns of 3 and 35 yards and picked up three other first downs.
5.
Eddie Lacy GB
150
1
0
0
52
52
0


Least valuable running back
Rk
Player
Team
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Willis McGahee CLE
34
0
0
0
-58
-58
0
McGahee ran the ball 21 times against Baltimore and never gained more than 7 yards. He had one first down and only two other successful plays, but he was hit for no gain or a loss eight times, and fumbled on one of those plays.


Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
1.
Andre Johnson HOU
9
13
229
25.4
3
116
Each of Johnson's receptions picked up a first down. He converted two of his three third-down throws, and scored on his only red-zone target.
2.
Riley Cooper PHI
5
6
139
27.8
3
87
Cooper's first three targets resulted in 122 yards and two touchdowns. Not listed in the table (but accounted for in his DYAR): one carry for 19 yards.
3.
Jerricho Cotchery PIT
7
8
96
13.7
3
84
Each of Cotchery's receptions gained a first down, including three red-zone scores.
4.
Danny Amendola NE
4
4
122
30.5
1
66
His four receptions, in order: 34-yard touchdown; 57-yard gain; 10-yard gain on third-and-6; 21-yard gain. Apparently the Steelers started covering him at that point, because he had zero targets in the fourth quarter.
5.
Aaron Dobson NE
5
9
130
26.0
2
64
In addition the basic stats listed here, Dobson drew two DPIs for 37 total yards. He was below replacement level after three quarters, but then went 10-yard gain on third-and-6; 17 yards for a first down; 22-yard DPI; 81-yard touchdown.


Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
1.
T.J. Graham BUF
1
4
3
3.0
0
-45
It's much, much worse than it looks here. Graham's only reception was a 3-yard gain on third-and-10; he fumbled on the play, and the ball was returned for a touchdown. He was also the target on Sean Smith's 100-yard pick-six. The touchdowns and the INT have no effect on Graham's DYAR but the fumble does, and the pick-six was still a failed play on third-and-goal from the 1. He was also the target of an incomplete pass on fourth-and-2.

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 04 Nov 2013

83 comments, Last at 07 Nov 2013, 3:31pm by Vince Verhei

Comments

1
by theslothook :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 5:02am

Dear Karl,

I just want you to know that when you're ready, I will be happy to accept your apology and repay your kindness with a healthy serving of CROW!!!!

9
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 8:43am

Apology? For what?

You said that a 'running quarterback' like Colin Kaepernick could never be successful, I didn't agree. I'm pretty happy with where I stood on that. You said they'd be better off with Foles or Osweiler, I'm still glad the niners have Kap.

As for Foles, did you watch the game? Philly's line dominated in pass protection, the Raiders meagre pass rush got nowhere near him and they repeatedly blew coverages down the right sideline. They didn't seem to be remotely prepared for the Eagles' turbo no huddle, their packaged plays or their route combinations. Total defensive collapse. I did think that Foles did a good job of keeping his eyes downfield but I doubt he'll get that chance against better pass rushes or that his receivers will be as open as often as they were on Sunday.

I'm not sure if Foles is their long term solution but then neither was their owner last week. There was once a time when some people announced that Matt Flynn had arrived off the back of one game.

As for the crow, I really can't recall making a strong statement about Foles, I don't give enough of a crap about him either way.

20
by Noah of Arkadia :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 10:54am

Apology accepted!

------
The man with no sig

59
by AJ (not verified) :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 5:25pm

It was a joke...watch out for the boulder

72
by theslothook :: Wed, 11/06/2013 - 2:33am

Just to clarify btw,

I said those comments about kaep on the heels of his first game against the rams - a game where he basically took off running at every possible turn and looked every bit like the scrambling sandlot type thrower that defined vince young's career and tarell pryor's to this point. At the time, I knew the 49ers were going to have to replace smith and likely would not have a high pick available to take a qb, so I thought the best course was to draft a pocket passer in the lower rounds who had good physical tools but poor technique, develop him slowly so that he would turn out to be a solid qb with a good core around him.

A few things changed. One, right after that rams debacle, kaep's next week against the bears was the complete opposite of what i saw against the rams. He threw well and decisively, but more importantly, he didn't look to run at all. I was floored by this complete change in behavior. In addition, foles was not developed and thrusted into the lineup. So overall, my philosophy wasn't really tested with these 2.

Now to Kaep. I like kaep alot, especially his big arm and long range accuracy. However, I am a bit surprised at the direction the 49ers have taken, going back to the read option and using heavy doses of Kaep in the run game. I believe 20 percent of his drop backs have resulted in him running(not sure how many were designed, but hes running). I believe this is pragmatic for the moment- given their championship window and hurt receivers, but I wonder(and that's all) how it will affect him in the long run. Does running your qb a lot detract from his pocket development? We'll never know I suppose. Was mike vick terrible in the pocket due to bad habits from his freestyle ways? or was he always going to be terrible in the pocket regardless...

74
by Karl Cuba :: Wed, 11/06/2013 - 7:05am

I knew Kap was running more often recently, partly due to the niners reintroducing the read option after dropping it for a few games and partly because the receiving corps has been Boldin and the crippled smurfs. I didn't realise it was as much as 20% though, just under 50 runs in total and I'd guess thirty of them would be designed as pass plays.

So he's scrambling on nearly 15% of his designed passes, is that much more than a 'normal' qb? Another running qb, Cam Newton runs a similar amount, though again some will be designed runs. Aaron Rodgers doesn't have many designed runs and he scrambles approximately 10% of the time so if he drops back thirty times then he'll run on three plays while Kap would run on four or five dropbacks with another couple of designed runs.

That doesn't seem like it should have that much influence on a passer's development to me. As for Vick, I don't think we should use him as the main example, most qbs aren't running illegal dog fighting rackets when they should be watching film. Steve Young worked out OK.

2
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 7:27am

Very pldased with .a Johnson as have on fantasy team.

3
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 7:40am

Thing says Cooper had one csrry. Actually had 0. N. Foles had crary for 1 yard and then lateral to Cooper for 18 tards. Verty similar to F. Ryan once having 0 catches for 31 yrads and 1 receiving TD 1960 L.A. Or like when B. Turner for 61 CCokts catch 1 pass for 111 yards and 1 TF. Was be ause scored on 74 yard TD pass and pi ked up another 37 on lateral from some oehtr guy on pass play. Or could be other way around with TD being the 37 yars play

4
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 7:45am

Sorry doubler

Eill use this space for more writings

Michael Vick weird catching stats one time too. Have notes here but only before prison so maybe has had receiving stats since prison. Before prison Vuck had 2 catches, 3 yards with a long of 16 yards but the 16 yards were not from one of his two catches. Had 16 yadrs from lateral on pass play 2002, catch for -14 in 2005, catch for 1 yarf 2006

7
by coboney :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 8:24am

Actually Raider Joe I believe you are up to a quadruple post now!

Have to say though I'm still surprised on the whole that Foles ended up that low given the amount of raw statistics and how efficient he was (6 incompletions, no turnovers, 7 TDs)

8
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 8:32am

Yeah would have thought higher.

Another notable czme in season when Cheisf were good. 1969 game at Municipal Stadium sv Dophlins. Livingston in own end zone throw post to Taylor (well remember it being post; would need to look at film again to eb sure)). Taylor does some running and pulls muscle while defender is tryogn to tackle him. Robert Holmes trailing play takes flip from Taylor anf trots into end zone flr final 14 yards.

Pro-football-rfeerence which still has faulty info ay tjmes shows it beig a 14 yard TD.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/196910190kan.htm

M. Livingston had long KV Chiefs completion of 93 yards that year. But nobody with 93 yard catch on tema! That because it was the above play. Taylor's longest catch was that 79-yarfer

16
by Otis Taylor89 :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 10:04am

Raiderjoe, I'm surprised you brought up one of my plays since you guys weren't exactly members of my fan club. Was it because we lost twice to you guys in 1969 (even though we beat you in the playoffs and won SB IV)?

19
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 10:22am

Well, was a gerat play. Nice throw and catch but true star of play was Holmes showing great effort running with play instead o f slowing down figuring Taylor would outrun defender for TD. Mind's eye is picyuring defender wearing #49 which was later Raider Jimmy Warren. Have film in personal library so can take a look tonihgt to make sure of Miami player. Anyway, Holmes, Taylor and Miami guy only players on screen whenn Taylor pulled up lame. Kinda funny and indictment of Miami effort on play to see Mike Tolbert type RB thst far down field.

1969 KC did lose to Oakland twoce in reg seasln but won in plauoffs. Big play in game was bad call on Taylor catch along sidleine. Guy definitely didn't catch ball in bounds. But Raiders lost by 10 and cannot make excuse.

Taylor best Kc WR all time. Can make argument for him to be in PFHOF.

61
by ChicagoRaider :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 5:57pm

And how does one acquire film of games from that far back? (emphasis on FILM)

67
by beargoggles :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 11:08pm

Awesome. We've finally outed Raider Joe as Steve Sabol's heir!

70
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 11:52pm

Well in this case havev many highlight shows recorded long ago onto VHSand since ttransfer to DVD. This inclufe 1969 KC Cheifs hoghlight film. Not an enojyable film for Raiders fan from casual fan standpoint but if appreciate history it is worth seeing. Highligh films of horrible cheisf teams of late 70s would be even more fun to own.

Personanly refer to highlight shows as "film". Also often call movies "film." Just naturally call sports highlight shows "film".

Your post comes across liek you mean coaches tape (aka coaches film). Actually have some of that. Have several games from before 1950, received as gifts years ago and since transferrred to disc

But highlight shows? Back in 1980s , ESPN showed That stuff alll the time. Then classic sports did and now EsPn classic. Unfortunately, no longer have that channel. is not part of satellite subscription . NFL network should be showing this type of stuff more but they just don't doit eenough.

26
by Boots Day :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 11:41am

Have notes here but only before prison

Well, we're all glad you're a free man again.

38
by PaddyPat :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 12:46pm

Yes, his wording was cute, but you know what he meant. Hats off, Raiderjoe; you always have something to say that's worth reading!

49
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 1:47pm

No prob. Always like to post somethng historical or current that interesting to read.

Also, no issue with prison commennt from other poster

Have been in jail cells at Alcatraz (left NFL card in pne) but that was on vacation few eyars back. But no other prison visits

5
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 7:53am

Also be sure to chejc out 1970s kick return stats of Eldridge Small

6
by Mike B. In Va :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 8:23am

So Tuel was the definition of replacement-level, by DYAR (though he pretty much directly lost Buffalo the game), and finishes ahead of Alex Smith, who was pretty awful.

The DVOA listings should be entertaining.

31
by Chill (not verified) :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 12:03pm

Actually, Alex Smith was much better than Tuel. KC wideouts had a lot of unforgivable drops. Really easy catches they didn't make, that would have given Alex at least two touchdowns and another hundred yards. Alex didn't make any bad decisions, only missed on two or three throws, and did everything he could possibly do to make the offense work, only to be let down by the actions of others. He did fumble once.

43
by Mike B. In Va :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 12:59pm

So Smith made better reads than Tuel, the results just didn't bear that out? I can buy that, since Smith damn well should be making better reads at this point in his career.

I'm not defending Tuel, BTW, other than to say he played about like I thought he would, being an undrafted rookie. This will add a lot of fuel to the fire for the Chiefs being one of the worst 9-0 teams in history, though.

41
by greybeard :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 12:54pm

The only reason Tuel looks replacement level is that these metrics are incapable of capturing the actual performance of the players. He threw a pick 6 at 1 yard line, one of the worst throws ever, and so many times he had wide receivers beating corners deep by a few yards only the pass to be incomplete because it took the ball forever to get to the spot and allowing the corner to catch up. He threw another interception without being forced.
The KC defense played quite bad. A replacement level QB would have scored 30 on them.

Alex Smith had his first game where Fishers was not the worst tackle in NFL. Unfortunately for him Dex dropped a 60 yards TD pass Bowe dropped 2 3rd down conversions, one of which could have gone for a TD. Not the Smith played exceptionally well or anything. He looked quite average. But his receivers failed him.

44
by Mike B. In Va :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 1:01pm

Believe me, I understand what you're saying - it's much more a reflection of how badly the defense played, and Tuel and Graham pretty much lost that game for Buffalo.

However, as noted in my previous reply, this *will* continue to fuel the "KC is a paper tiger" fire.

51
by greybeard :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 2:54pm

"However, as noted in my previous reply, this *will* continue to fuel the "KC is a paper tiger" fire."

It would. But what difference does it make? They play the schedule they have. And they find ways to win. If they win 2 more games out of the remaining 7 they will be in playoffs. And they have 8 weeks to improve themselves to make a good run in playoffs.
Games are not win based on DVOA points, or style or yards or how many deep balls the QB throws.
Also to consider, not only did KC win 9 games, they have the third best point differential in the entire NFL.

10
by Otis Taylor89 :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 8:49am

Aaron Dobson also had two more drops, something that has been pretty common this year, but rare when he was in college. If he can get that fixed, he will be a beast next year.

11
by BlueStarDude :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 8:51am

RE: "Romo, by the way, had the fifth-best game of the year in that Saints defeat."

But he hasn't lost to the Saints. Yet.

12
by Pied :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 9:09am

So Andre Johnson had a good game.

Yeah, but he's still not clutch. He didn't get the dubya, see.

13
by CBPodge :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 9:28am

Where did Zac Stacy come out? Given that he had a big week and there's no mention in the guys who missed out bit, I'm assuming he must be sixth, having got turfed out of the top 5 by Lacy last night.

14
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 9:35am

Once again, the metrics, as modest as they are, causes one to ponder Ponder in a manner which overvalues his play. The Cowboys were playing the Vikings as if it was 1925, and the T formation had yet been invented.

15
by SteveM (not verified) :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 10:02am

"Ponder would have ranked about a dozen spots higher, but he was sacked twice, and fumbled both times."

Is this a sign Ponder is taking a step forward? Last week he was 10th overall in total DYAR on the week and -- but for two plays -- would have been top 10 once again this week. (Not to discount the value of those two plays, naturally.)

17
by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 10:05am

Admittedly, I didn't watch a lot of that game, but from the part I did see and combining last week's game, I don't know if he's really taken a step forward, but I think he is proving simply better in that offense than Cassel or Freeman. I'm not sure why the Vikings were so interested in this four week experiment with two other guys, but Ponder seems more comfortable in that offense.

I think Ponder has talent. There's a reason why he was a high draft pick (an overdraft at #12, yes, but he was still seen as a 1-2 round QB). I don't know if it will ever happen in Minnesota, but he might have a Rich Gannon like career years from now.

18
by Otis Taylor89 :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 10:12am

The thing about Ponder is that he appears to be an injury just waiting to happen. He does have good quickness and can run out of the pocket, but he doesn't seem to sense the pass rush coming like he should and he's not the biggest guy in the world.

24
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 11:34am

Last week's numbers really didn't capture his play, either. When the game was being contested, prior to the Packer defense taking the rest of the night off, Ponder was simply awful. The guy simply does not locate open receivers, and this year, unlike last year, there have been open receivers to locate. The only skill he has which is not markedly below average is the ability to run fast, once he fails to locate where to throw the ball. How anyone decided that he was anywhere close to being the 12th best player in the draft is an unfathomable mystery.

37
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 12:45pm

When you have the opportunity to grab a guy who throws a Hail Mary from his own 45 and it bounces five yards short of the end zone, you really just have to take it.

40
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 12:52pm

I hope it stays below zero for 90 straight days, this winter in the Twin Cities, you cruel bast*rd.

68
by beargoggles :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 11:15pm

while running forward. That was ugly.

21
by FourteenDays :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 11:06am

What's the deal with that David Patten game? His total DYAR is much greater than his receiving + running DYAR. Did he also throw some passes or something?

23
by Babylon :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 11:23am

You got it exactly. He threw a 60 yard TD pass in that game. Was one of the few ever passed / ran / caught a TD games.

46
by Shattenjager :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 1:13pm

I had to look, so if anyone else wants to, here are all seven since 1960: http://pfref.com/tiny/UN8Xi

50
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 1:56pm

Won't clcik on link. Want to see if can come up with all cases without looking upp

F. Solomon had game like that 1977 or 1978.

Joe Washington rec TD, KO return TD and passing TD on mnf 9/1978 at NE. But that wouldn't make the list because had no rush TD in that game..matter of fact, Washington record holder for moist rush attempt s with No rushing touchdowns in one season. 240 rushing attempts, 0 run TDs.

53
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 3:07pm

LaDanian Tomlinson has to be in with a shot at that.

57
by Shattenjager :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 5:17pm

He is indeed. Raiderjoe, unbelievably enough, is wrong so far--no Solomon. (Unless of course I messed up the search, in which case I apologize for doubting Raiderjoe.)

62
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 6:05pm

Sweetness?

63
by Shattenjager :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 7:15pm

Yes. I felt like there were three who were pretty fair to think someone could guess (leaving Patten aside since the conversation started with him). One of the other three is honestly a name I don't remember ever hearing before.

66
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 10:38pm

Did write "had game like that." He did have a 3-touchdowner of some sort. May have been a pujt return, pass and Rec.

haven't figured out list
as of yet

Edot-
Looked up Solomon. In '76 game vs Buff he scored rush and rec TDs and returned punt for Td

69
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 11:15pm

Had to stop. Just couldn't recall any except forb Washington and Solomon ones and those didn't fit the specifications anywayy.
Thought Andy Johnson and John David Crow were possiiblite.s
Clciked on link. Could have listed 40 guys and nver would have put John Henry Johnson or Harmon Wages. Wages #5 went for the p. Hornung look. Upright runner. Nothing special but had one of the run-catch-throw TD days so had thst going for him which was nice.

80
by Shattenjager :: Thu, 11/07/2013 - 1:11pm

The ones I thought were reasonable to expect anyone to be able to guess really were Payton, Tomlinson, and Keith Lincoln. Dan Reeves actually makes sense, but I had never noticed before how many passes he threw (32 passes as a running back! He didn't even want his quarterbacks to throw that much when he was coaching!). I had never heard of Harmon Wages. Johnson, a runner who was hardly used as a receiver and threw five total passes in his career, is a shock.

22
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 11:19am

Nick Foles, #1. Case Keenum, #3. Mike Glennon, #4. I'd like to go back to the days when football made sense.

The break between the first and second halves for Glennon makes me realize Greg Schiano does do halftime adjustments; he just finds ways to make things worse.

34
by Steve in WI :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 12:25pm

That whole top ten is crazy, since it includes Jason Campbell and Josh McCown, and really Brady is the only one who you'd automatically assume would have one of the top performances of the week. (Plus given the way he's played this particular season, Brady is arguably a surprise too!)

25
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 11:37am

It should be noted that, in addition to having markedly improved their o-line personnel, the Bears offense is really well coached. The universe has been upended.

27
by Ben :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 11:43am

Not that Pagano has necessarily been a bad choice, but I was really hoping that the Colts were going to hire Trestman after they fired Caldwell. It would have been nice to see a Luck/Trestman combination.

30
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 11:55am

If anybody can coach Cutler into maximizing his considerable physical gifts, it's Trestman. Hell, a guy who was coaching in high school two years ago looked pretty good running Trestman's offense last night.

33
by tuluse :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 12:23pm

I really don't know how to handle this Bears teams. That final final clock killing drive was a thing of beauty.

36
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 12:45pm

That was offense at it's most enjoyable, in this football fan's opinion.

39
by Steve in WI :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 12:48pm

Yeah, how about that? Really gutsy call to go for it on 4th and inches, which seemed like the right decision based on the likelihood of converting and the state of the Bears' defense, even with Seneca Wallace. (Not sure how I feel about the actual play they called, but hey, it worked). And then they just marched downfield in the kind of drive that I can't ever recall the Bears being able to put together.

I normally detest the super-conservative end-of-game mindset that nursing a small lead with a few minutes to go, you run 3 times and punt/settle for the field goal rather than risk even one pass, but there are a few things about last night that I liked. One, the Bears were exploiting something in the Packers defense that made running effective even when it became clear that all the Bears were going to do was run. Two, I feel like Trestman wouldn't have ruled out a pass play if the run game got stuffed...he just didn't have to. By the time the Bears went for the field goal, I was satisfied because they'd run down enough clock and forced the Packers to burn all of their timeouts...much different in my mind than when a coach does the same thing but leaves the other team with 2 minutes and/or a couple of timeouts.

(Side note: as if the last few minutes of the game weren't exciting enough, I was in a fantasy matchup where my opponent had McCown and only needed 7 more passing yards from him to overtake me. So I was doubly happy that the Bears were able to run so effectively.)

42
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 12:56pm

Absent that marginal holding call, it may have ended up being the ultimate offensive drive; the length of the field, consuming more than 9 minutes, ending with a qb kneeldown on the opponents' one yard line.

52
by Led :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 3:02pm

Ahh! That scenario gives me a warm feeling just thinking about it. Like snow at Christmas.

75
by Jeremy Billones :: Wed, 11/06/2013 - 2:10pm

Do college games count? How does

02:00 3 14:42 NAVY 1 26 95 Made FG

grab you?

http://espn.go.com/ncf/drivechart?gameId=243652426

56
by TomC :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 4:01pm

Really gutsy call to go for it on 4th and inches, which seemed like the right decision based on the likelihood of converting and the state of the Bears' defense, even with Seneca Wallace. (Not sure how I feel about the actual play they called, but hey, it worked).

I also liked the decision and hated the playcall (you literally need to gain one inch: just sneak it, fer cryin' out loud). Also, before we send the tape of that drive to Canton, remember that Trestman burned a TO before making the decision to go for it. The spot of the ball after M. Bennett's catch and run was very questionable, so if you're going to use a timeout anyway, why not throw the red flag? They hadn't challenged yet, so it wouldn't have even precluded another challenge before the 2-minute warning. All in all, I loved the outcome of that series but question the process (except the decision to go for it).

EDIT: I forgot to add that these are tiny blemishes on an otherwise beautifully coached game, and I am very happy to have Trestman as my team's coach.

28
by jimm (not verified) :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 11:53am

Ponder is a one read guy. He had a chance to put away the game with a couple of minutes to go when the Vikings had a 3rd and 7 inside Dallas' 40 yd line. From the shot gun Jennings runs a crossing pattern and is wide open almost instantly as he is pursued by a linebacker. Ponder looked like he was intending to run from the get go. Doesn't see Jennings tucks the ball and runs for 3 yards.

This is a nutshell is Ponder's biggest weakness...well maybe it's his inaccurate limp arm, but I digress, he simply doesn't have a feel for the game. I'm sure he's very bright and understands the game very well but his instincts just aren't anywhere near good enough.

32
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 12:04pm

I assume Spielman's blather about Frazier's job being safe is just that, assuming Spielman's job is safe. Depending on where they draft, and who is available, I'm starting to come around to the idea of trying to hire Kevin Sumlin, and drafting Manziel, assuming Sumlin still thinks Manziel is coachable. Yeah, he's short, but he really seems to have a feel for the game, and is hyper competitive. There is a Tarkenton-like quality to Manziel which is intriguing, and these days it seems like a head coach with a background from offense is the way to go, in the current rules environment.

47
by JIPanick :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 1:29pm

What has Manziel done that would suggest he wouldn't be coachable?

Illegal autographs, a scuffle on Northgate, and some dumb tweets are bad, but they don't seem to add up to anywhere near "uncoachable" to me.

I'd like to see Manziel in Minnesota just to see how the mobile-QB-opens-things-up-for-the-running-back effect combines with Peterson. Would be fun to watch.

48
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 1:44pm

Look, the guy was one autograph broker, willing to squeal to avoid tax problems, away from ruining his teammates' season. That is indicative of a lack of long term thinking, which can be problematic at the qb position. Sumlin would have more insight into this than just about anybody. however, so if he's willing to draft Sumlin, it'd be fine with me.

55
by jimm (not verified) :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 3:41pm

I haven't watched Mariota much but putting up the numbers he has a 20 year old really intrigues me. His rushing stats suggest he a much better athlete than Hundley, and Bridgewater. I think the trend towards athletes that can also accurately throw the ball is a good one.

I will be checking all these guys out as much as possible along with other projected top picks in April, because that's what you do when your favourite teams sucks.

54
by Jimmy :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 3:22pm

Is 'one read guy' at QB code for '#*+?ing idiot'?

58
by Theo :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 5:24pm

That's how I read it.

29
by jimm (not verified) :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 11:54am

Romo was victimized by a number of drops on what would have been big plays. The Viking defence looked competent at first blush, but a lot of that had to do with drops on big plays.

35
by PatsFan :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 12:34pm

Out of curiosity, where did Gronk end up? He had 9 catches on supposedly 10 targets for 140+ yards and drew at least one DPI I can recall.

45
by NathanO (not verified) :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 1:06pm

You mention " the average quarterback this season is completing 39 percent of his Deep passes"

What are the other averages at the moment for your distances?

The last remark you have on it is from 2007 with

"the league-average completion percentage, including drops as complete passes:

Short (5 yards or less): 80.5 percent
Mid (6-15 yards): 65.0 percent
Deep (16-25 yards): 52.0 percent
Bomb (26+ yards): 33.6 percent"

I run an online text based football game, and it would be fantastic for me to have updated numbers there to work with.

I have FO premium, but I don't see any average numbers in there.

76
by Vincent Verhei :: Wed, 11/06/2013 - 4:54pm

Where did you get those numbers? I just checked the 2007 passing data, and it doesn't look like that at all. Pass length distribution, by the way, is essentially unchanged. Pass completion rates are down just a little bit at the Short distance, but up across the board everywhere else.

77
by NathanO (not verified) :: Thu, 11/07/2013 - 12:36am
78
by NathanO (not verified) :: Thu, 11/07/2013 - 12:39am

Also, please pay close attention to the statement that drops are added in as complete passes in this number.

79
by Vincent Verhei :: Thu, 11/07/2013 - 3:53am

OK, a couple of things. One, I was using straight PBP data, which does not list drops or other things like throwaways that get sorted out at the end of the year. Two, I was using 2007 data; that article was published in 2007, but was actually referencing the data from 2006. And three, it looks like 2006 was a really weird year for both pass length distribution, and completion rate. Here's the data, by distance, for each of the three seasons I looked at:

2013 through Week 9
Short: 68.% completions, 4804 passes, 51% of all passes
Mid: 65.2%, 2829, 30%
Deep: 42.9%, 1175, 12%
Bomb: 30.2%, 609, 6%

2007
Short: 70.7%, 8221, 49%
Mid: 61.0%, 5482, 32%
Deep: 46.6%, 2113, 13%
Bomb: 27.7%, 1084, 6%

2006
Short: 77.3%, 7065, 43%
Mid: 61.8%, 4967, 30%
Deep: 48.1%, 1994, 12%
Bomb: 14.8%, 2268, 14%

So in 2006, compared to the other two seasons, teams threw bombs a lot more often with a lower completion rate, and threw short stuff a lot less often with a higher completion rate.

This information is not a part of FO Premium, but it is available in the Online Store under Game Charting Data.

81
by NathanO (not verified) :: Thu, 11/07/2013 - 1:33pm

Thank you very much. I will purchase the game charting data then.

This means my game is using numbers from an outlier season. I've been asking for updates to these numbers for a long time, and haven't received it.

I can't tell you how grateful I am. Thank you Vince!

82
by NathanO (not verified) :: Thu, 11/07/2013 - 1:38pm

Do I have to wait until the end of the year to buy the 2013 game charting data, or can I buy it now and have updates through the season?

83
by Vincent Verhei :: Thu, 11/07/2013 - 3:31pm

I'm afraid you'll have to wait till the end of the year.

The other option (although it's too late for this season) is to volunteer to be a game charter. That way you will get the PBP data as it comes out each week.

60
by Theo :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 5:29pm

Maybe it's done just for fun, but the whole Foles thing seemed to me like "if he didn't do the bad things and if we assume he continued to play well... then here's how good he was in comparison with other QBs with games among the best in history. It could be the best 3 quarters ever, but let's forget about that aaaaand here's a table about receivers."

64
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 7:53pm

RE: "Romo, by the way, had the fifth-best game of the year in that Saints defeat."
But he hasn't lost to the Saints. Yet.

Egads. BRONCOS defeat. Will fix.

Where did Zac Stacy come out? Given that he had a big week and there's no mention in the guys who missed out bit, I'm assuming he must be sixth, having got turfed out of the top 5 by Lacy last night.

That is exactly right. He finished 1 DYAR behind Lacy and 1 DYAR ahead of Matt Forte.

What are the other averages at the moment for your distances?

Looking only at completions, incompletions, and interceptions, and ignoring things like DPI:

Within 5 yards: 71.7%
6-15 yards: 60.8%
16-25 yards: 42.9%
26-plus yards: 30.2%

65
by Perfundle :: Tue, 11/05/2013 - 8:24pm

Wha? The percentages are lower across the board, and yet overall percentage is up (61.5% now versus 59.8% in 2006)? So that means that QBs are throwing far more shorter passes now?

71
by D2K :: Wed, 11/06/2013 - 12:09am

"So that means that QBs are throwing far more shorter passes now?"

That would seem correct to me. With the quick read, 1 step, 3 step, 5 step drop back spread offenses that have taken over it makes sense. I would also assume that because that type of offense hides porous book end OT's and negates the pass rush as well as allowing these rookie and 2nd year QB's an ease in the transition with high percentage passes. While the NFL is no doubt a "passing" league a lot of the route combinations are designed to free up short routes in space in attempt to create YAC. So what you essentially get are "long handoffs" who most WR1/WR2's and quick twitch slot receivers can turn into long gains.

73
by Alternator :: Wed, 11/06/2013 - 3:53am

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox

That's exactly how to interpret Simpson's Paradox, by the way. If all averages are lower year over year, but the distribution changes to favor the better-odds strategy, the overall success rate can go up. It's had some pretty interesting real-world applications, such as one college that admitted significantly more men than women, but in most (or perhaps all, I'm not sure) degrees, the rate at which they admitted women exceeded the rate at which women applied.

They just had more students, total, with the hard science degrees, which have far fewer women than most other degree types. They were sued for discrimination, and won the suit because hey, they clearly aren't discriminating--it's just Simpson's Paradox being non-intuitive.