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» 2017 ALEX: Midseason Report

The latest ALEX update looks at the recent draft class that is struggling, the unusual Chicago strategy, and what's gotten into Alex Smith? We also looked at Tyrod Taylor's declining ALEX, but rising conversion rate that Buffalo just sent to the bench.

08 Dec 2014

Week 14 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

There's an unusual name near the top of the Quick Reads tables this week. No, not Ben Roethlisberger -- he is the top-ranked quarterback (going into Monday night) for the third time this season. Right behind him, though, we find one Derek Carr, the Oakland Raiders rookie who enjoyed the best game of his young career this week against San Francisco. Prior to his game against the 49ers, Carr only once finished in the top ten in Quick Reads (against Cleveland in Week 6), and just last week was the worst-ranked quarterback in the league. So it has been an up-and-down year, which isn't surprising, considering his circumstances.

Carr's big game seems like good reason to check on this year's rookie passers. There are four freshmen this year who qualify for our passing tables: Carr, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, and Zach Mettenberger. Let's take a look at that foursome, in the order they were drafted. Here they are, with their DVOA and DYAR (along with ranks) and their best and worst games (passing only):

Blake Bortles

Drafted: Jacksonville, first round, third overall
DYAR: -703 (42nd out of 42 qualifying QBs)
DVOA: -37.0% (40th)
Best game: Week 9 vs. Cincinnati (22-of-33, 247 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 41 DYAR)
Worst game: Week 12 vs. Indianapolis (15-of-27 for 146 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, -155 DYAR)

Bortles' career began with significant playing time (24 passes) against Indianapolis in Week 3, and he has started every game for the Jaguars since. Only once in those ten starts has he finished above replacement level. No, this is not what you'd expect from the third overall pick. He's on pace to finish somewhere south of -900 DYAR passing, a threshold that has been broken only twice since 1989. If he really stinks up the joint, he could threaten the all-time worst mark of -1,010 DYAR set in 2011 by ... ex-Jacksonville quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Poor Jaguars fans.

Bortles has combined an unwatchable tendency to check down (his average pass this season has traveled 7.0 yards past the line of scrimmage, next to last among starters) with an appalling lack of ball security (a league-high 16 interceptions).

In defense of Bortles, the problems in Jacksonville go way beyond the quarterback position. Before getting benched, Chad Henne put up a DVOA of -54.9% in 94 passes. That is much worse than Bortles' DVOA, and would be far and away the worst mark of Henne's own mediocre career. Only 34 quarterbacks in our database have had a DVOA below -50% on at least 90 passes.

Teddy Bridgewater

Drafted: Minnesota, first round, 32nd overall
DYAR: -215 (35th)
DVOA: -21.3% (35th)
Best game: Week 4 against Atlanta (19-of-30, 317 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 105 DYAR)
Worst game: Week 6 against Detroit (23-of-37, 188 yards 0 TDs, 3 INTs, 8 sacks -247 DYAR)

Bridgewater's big game against Atlanta was the first start of his NFL career (he did throw 20 passes in a relief appearance the week prior against New Orleans), and it would be fair and accurate to say that is has been all downhill for the former Louisville Cardinal since. It would also be fair and accurate to say that if you take away his disaster against the Lions, the worst game for any quarterback this year, Bridgewater has essentially been a replacement-level quarterback. Bridgewater's completion rate (61.9 percent) and interception rate (2.6 percent) are very close to the league averages (62.9 percent and 2.5 percent), though he and the Vikings will need to cut his sack rate (8.3 percent) if he's going to have a long career in Minnesota. If you're the type who believes in "clutch" statistics, it's worth noting that Bridgewater has been credited with three game-winning drives and three fourth-quarter comebacks this season; Brian Hoyer leads all players in both categories with four (Tony Romo also has four game-winning drives this season).

Derek Carr

Drafted: Oakland, second round, 36th overall
DYAR: -27 (30th)
DVOA: -12.0% (30th)
Best game: Week 14 against San Francisco (22-of-28, 254 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 179 DYAR)
Worst game: Week 13 against St. Louis (24-of-39, 173 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, -135 DYAR)

Most expected Carr to spend a season on the sidelines backing up Matt Schaub, but the Raiders went with Carr on opening day and haven't looked back. The results have been about as successful as they could be on a 2-11 team that is still next to last in points scored. Carr's greatest strength and greatest weakness are both very apparent. He has been sacked on just 3.1 percent of his dropbacks, lower than anyone except Nick Foles and Peyton Manning. However, his average completion has gained only 9.4 yards, worst of any starting quarterback. Four of Oakland's top five receivers are gaining fewer than 10 yards per catch this season, and two of them are gaining fewer than 7 yards a catch.

Here is some random weirdness I found involving Carr and the Raiders: If you divide the 100 yards of an NFL field into five 20-yard segments, the Raiders rank 28th or worse in DVOA in four of the five zones. The exception is in the red zone, where they have been the NFL's third-best offense. Yes, I'm certain, and no, I am not making that up. This weekend, the Raiders scored three times in four red-zone trips against San Francisco. The bad news is that even after the 49ers game, they have only reached the red zone a league-low 22 times. But on those 22 trips, they have been lights-out.

Zach Mettenberger

Drafted: Tennessee, sixth round, 178th overall
DYAR: -247 (37th)
DVOA: -31.7% (37th)
Best game: Week 13 against Houston (13-of-19, 184 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 39 DYAR)
Worst game: Week 14 against New York Giants (14-of-24, 125 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 5 sacks, 1 separated shoulder, -183 DYAR)

Mettenberger was never supposed to be a starting quarterback in Tennessee, and given his performance this year and season-ending injury suffered against the Giants, there's a good chance he won't ever be again. Mettenberger's Success Rate on passing plays this year was just 38 percent, next-to-last among qualifying quarterbacks. Mind you, Jake Locker (-228 DYAR in 151 plays) has been no savior either, though he appears to be the starter going forward. Charlie Whitehurst (52 DYAR, 107 plays) has clearly been the best quarterback on the Titans this year, but the question isn't really which of the three will finish out the string, it's who will be starting for Tennessee in 2015. Because odds are, that player is not on the roster right now.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
1.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
25/39
350
3
0
187
187
0
Roethlisberger did most of his damage throwing to his right, where he went 12-of-15 for 232 yards, with three touchdowns and six other first downs.
2.
Derek Carr OAK
22/28
254
3
0
176
178
-2
Third downs, more than 9 yards to go for a first down: 3-of-4 for 16 yards, no first downs. Nine yards or less to go: 6-of-6 for 82 yards and six conversions, including three touchdowns. (He was also sacked on a third-and-3.)
3.
Matt Ryan ATL
24/39
375
4
1
162
152
10
4.
Joe Flacco BAL
25/32
269
2
1
138
120
18
A slow start for Flacco and the Ravens. Their first four drives produced three three-and-outs and a turnover, and up to that point Flacco went 7-of-10 for 69 yards. That sounds pretty good, but Flacco had only gained two first downs up to that point, with one interception. After that he went 18-of-22 (including two touchdowns and 11 other first downs) for 195 yards with one sack.
5.
Aaron Rodgers GB
24/36
327
3
0
126
133
-7
6.
Jay Cutler CHI
32/46
341
2
1
117
102
14
Cutler cleaned up in short yardage, going 7-of-8 for 87 yards and six first downs with 6 yards or less to go for a first down.
7.
Cam Newton CAR
21/32
226
3
0
109
96
13
The Panthers beat the Saints by 31 points even though they had almost no luck throwing downfield. Newton went 1-of-7 for 16 yards on balls that traveled more than 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
8.
Matthew Stafford DET
26/34
311
3
0
107
107
0
Stafford ripped up the middle of the Tampa Bay defense, going 9-of-10 for 128 yards with two touchdowns and five other first downs.
9.
Russell Wilson SEA
23/37
263
2
0
100
92
8
The Eagles struggled all night defending against Wilson's deep pass. On deep balls, Wilson went 7-of-12 for 147 yards and a touchdown. A 13th deep ball resulted in a 44-yard DPI.
10.
Tony Romo DAL
21/26
205
3
0
93
93
0
It's easy to forget, but the Bears-Cowboys game on Thanksgiving Thursday night was tied right before halftime. Then from his last pass of the second quarter to the only pass he threw in the fourth, Romo did this: 13-yard touchdown to Cole Beasley; 24-yard touchdown to Beasley; 43-yard pass to Dez Bryant; 6-yard touchdown to Gavin Escobar; 9-yard pass on second-and-7 to DeMarco Murray; incomplete pass on second-and-22.
11.
Teddy Bridgewater MIN
19/27
309
2
1
91
101
-11
With 5 yards or less to go for a first down, Bridgewater went 7-of-8 for 151 yards. All seven completions picked up first downs, including the game-winning 87-yard touchdown in overtime.
12.
Andy Dalton CIN
21/29
302
2
0
76
77
-1
First and fourth quarters: 9-of-13 for 70 yards with two first downs and one sack. Second and third quarters: 12-of-16 for 232 yards with two touchdowns, five other first downs, and one sack.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
13.
Geno Smith NYJ
18/29
254
1
1
35
42
-7
At the end of the third quarter, the Jets trailed the Vikings 21-18. The Jets somehow managed to add two game-tying field goals despite a terrible close performance from Smith, who went 5-of-11 for 52 yards with only one first down in the fourth quarter and overtime.
14.
Alex Smith KC
26/39
293
1
1
35
27
7
On Arizona's side of the field, Smith went 11-of-15 for 91 yards with four first downs (including a touchdown), three sacks, and an interception.
15.
Peyton Manning DEN
14/20
175
0
2
35
35
0
14-of-20 sounds pretty good, but Manning only threw for three first downs. Those three plays averaged 32.0 yards each; his other 17 plays averaged 4.6 yards each. On second downs, he went 5-of-5 for 41 yards, but no first downs. On third downs, he went 2-of-5 for 16 yards with no first downs and an interception.
16.
Drew Stanton ARI
15/30
239
1
0
28
21
7
On Kansas City's side of the field, Stanton went 5-of-12 for 59 yards with one touchdown, one other first down, two sacks, and one fumble.
17.
Tom Brady NE
28/44
317
2
1
26
21
5
Throwing to his right, Brady went 6-of-12 for 40 yards and only two first downs. One of those completions was fumbled and recovered by San Diego for a touchdown. That's not Brady's fault, of course, but it adds to the troubles New England had throwing to that side of the field.
18.
Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU
13/19
135
0
0
17
19
-2
Fitzpatrick only threw for seven first downs against Jacksonville, and five of them came on five straight throws over the third and fourth quarters. Those five throws picked up 87 yards; his other 16 plays (including two sacks) gained 44 yards.
19.
Kyle Orton BUF
38/57
355
1
2
10
3
7
Orton had eight first downs on 43 first- and second-down plays, but 10 first downs on 18 third- and fourth-down plays. On third and fourth downs, he went 15-of-17 for 179 yards, with one sack and one touchdown.
20.
Shaun Hill STL
16/22
213
2
0
1
1
0
Hill had four pass plays in the red zone. One was a 1-yard touchdown. The other three were all sacks, inlcuding a fumble.
21.
Eli Manning NYG
26/42
260
1
1
-9
-9
0
In the red zone, Manning went 4-of-12 for 29 yards with one touchdown and one other first down.
22.
Ryan Tannehill MIA
23/33
227
1
0
-14
-19
5
Tannehill had five first downs in the first quarter, when he went 7-of-9 for 52 yards. Then he had five first downs over the last three quarters, a period when he was sacked six times, fumbling once.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
23.
Mark Sanchez PHI
10/20
96
2
1
-24
-27
3
Darren Sproles and LeSean McCoy have a combined 52 receptions this season, but neither got a single target against Seattle. Sanchez only had two plays on Seattle's side of the field, but both those plays went for touchdowns and 36 total yards. On Philadelphia's last five drives, all of which came with a 10-point deficit, Sanchez went 4-of-9 for 29 yards with two first downs, one interception, and three sacks.
24.
Andrew Luck IND
24/53
295
2
2
-39
-62
24
Throwing to his right, Luck went 9-of-21 for 105 yards with one touchdown, three other first downs, and two interceptions, including a pick-six.
25.
Drew Brees NO
29/49
235
1
1
-47
-49
2
Most of Brees' production came with New Orleans down by at least 31 points in the fourth quarter. His first throw of the game resulted in a completion and a fumble; his second throw was intercepted. By the time Brees got the ball back, New Orleans trailed by 17, and they never got any closer. Between the interception and the fourth quarter, Brees went 10-of-22 for 60 yards with two first downs and one sack.
26.
Jake Locker TEN
9/11
81
0
1
-50
-62
12
Locker came into the game with Tennessee down by 29 points in the fourth quarter. His first pass was an 18-yard gain on third-and-19; his next play was a fourth-down sack. His next four passes were all completed for first downs, gaining 49 yards in the process. From that point to the end of the game, he went 4-of-6 for 14 yards with no first downs, two sacks, and one interception.
27.
Josh McCown TB
20/39
250
2
2
-63
-61
-2
Throwing to his left, McCown went 10-of-21 for 83 yards with two touchdowns, three other first downs, and an interception.
28.
Blake Bortles JAC
20/39
205
1
1
-80
-74
-6
Bortles' first three third down throws were all completed for first downs, for 48 total yards. From that point forward, on third and fourth downs, he went 3-of-7 for 19 yards with one first down, one interception, and two sacks.
29.
Philip Rivers SD
20/33
189
1
1
-88
-79
-9
Throwing to his left, Rivers went 5-of-14 for 38 yards with one first down.
30.
Brian Hoyer CLE
14/31
140
0
2
-94
-92
-3
On third downs, Hoyer went 4-of-13 for 52 yards and only three first downs, none of which came after halftime.
31.
Colin Kaepernick SF
18/33
174
1
2
-107
-115
8
Throwing to his right, Kaepernick went 8-of-11, but those eight completions gained only 37 yards and one first down. The longest of those completions gained only 8 yards. He was sacked five times in the game, three of them with San Francisco down by 11 in the final six minutes in the game.
32.
Colt McCoy WAS
20/32
199
0
2
-146
-131
-15
Inside the St. Louis 40, McCoy went 2-of-5 for 25 yards with one first down, two interceptions, and one sack.
33.
Zach Mettenberger TEN
14/24
125
0
1
-183
-183
0
Mettenberger gave up as many sacks (five, two of which resulted in fumbles) as he gained first downs, and each of those five first downs came with Tennessee down by at least 17 points. On third downs, he went 3-of-9 for 26 yards with one first down, one interception, and one sack.


Five most valuable running backs (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Le'veon Bell PIT
26
185
2
6/9
50
1
59
41
19
Bell had eight total first downs on the ground, with five runs of 10 yards or more, including gains of 22 and 53 yards. That helped to offset the five times he was stuffed for no gain or a loss. He had two first downs as a receiver, both of which converted third downs.
2.
Marcel Reece OAK
2
2
0
7/7
64
1
46
-4
50
Reece gained four first downs through the air, including gains of 11, 12, and 14 yards, plus a goal-line touchdown catch.
3.
DeMarco Murray DAL
32
179
1
9/10
49
0
46
40
5
On first-and-goal from the 8 in the fourth quarter, Murray ran for a loss of 14 yards. That was the most yards lost on a running play this year that did not involve a fumble. He was hit for no gain or a loss four other times. However, he had 12 runs of 5 yards or more and three of 20 or more, including a 40-yarder. Four of Murray's receptions produced first downs.
4.
Jamaal Charles KC
10
91
1
2/4
20
1
45
34
11
Charles was stuffed for no gain just once, but he had carries of 7, 9, and 63 yards, and also gained 3 yards on second-and-1. His biggest catch was an 18-yard touchdown on first-and-15.
5.
Joique Bell DET
18
83
1
5/5
50
1
35
-4
38
Bell's rushing numbers were ridiculous. He had a 57-yard gain and a 1-yard touchdown, but those were his only first downs on the ground. His other 16 carries averaged 1.6 yards each, and he was stuffed for no gain or a loss seven times. Bell's receptions included a 5-yard touchdown, a 27-yard gain on first-and-10, and a 7-yard gain on third-and-4.


Five most valuable running backs (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Le'veon Bell PIT
26
185
2
6/9
50
1
59
41
19
2.
DeMarco Murray DAL
32
179
1
9/10
49
0
46
40
5
3.
Jamaal Charles KC
10
91
1
2/4
20
1
45
34
11
4.
Jonathan Stewart CAR
20
155
1
0/1
0
0
16
25
-10
Stewart had a 69-yard touchdown, plus gains of 15 and 14 yards. He was stuffed for no gain or a loss only three times.
5.
Pierre Thomas NO
5
38
0
4/6
14
0
20
25
-5
Each of Thomas gained at least 2 yards, four were successful plays, three went for first downs, and two gained at least 10 yards.


Least valuable running back (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Bishop Sankey TEN
9
25
0
2/3
2
0
-27
-13
-14
All of Sankey's runs gained zero to 7 yards. None gained first downs.


Least valuable running back (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
LeGarrette Blount NE
20
66
0
2/2
11
0
-17
-19
2
Blount had runs of 23 and 11 yards and two other first downs, but he was stuffed for no gain or a loss eight times, plus three other carries that gained exactly 1 yard each. It's not good when your median carry only gains 1 yard.


Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
1.
Julio Jones ATL
11
17
259
23.5
1
82
2.
Calvin Johnson DET
8
9
158
19.8
1
75
Each of Johnson's receptions was good for a first down, including gains of 53 and 21 yards. His 6-yard touchdown was his shortest catch of the day.
3.
Jordy Nelson GB
8
10
146
18.2
2
67
4.
Doug Baldwin SEA
5
7
97
19.4
1
63
Four of Baldwin's catches gained at least 20 yards, and he also drew a 44-yard DPI.
5.
Percy Harvin NYJ
6
9
124
20.7
1
59
Harvin had 52 DYAR receiving, plus 7 DYAR rushing on a two-carry, 3-yard day (one of those carries converted a third-and-2). He has now gained 405 yards from scrimmage in six games with the Jets after gaining 242 yards in six (regular-season) games with the Seahawks. His first two catches against the Vikings were a 45-yard gain on third-and-7 and a 35-yard touchdown on third-and-6. He also converted a third-and-2 in the third quarter.


Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
1.
Cecil Shorts JAC
2
10
3
1.5
0
-70
His two receptions: 6-yard gain on first-and-10, 3-yard loss on first-and-10. The two catches gained a combined -7 yards through the air and 10 yards after the catch.

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 08 Dec 2014

81 comments, Last at 11 Dec 2014, 5:04pm by BJR

Comments

1
by reiniroosh :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 3:50am

show the DYAR for Derek Carr and Zach Mettenberger's best and worst games plz.

2
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 5:27am

Added. Thanks for pointing that out.

3
by Duff Soviet Union :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 5:54am

So, if the Jags get a chance to draft Marcus Mariota (they currently have the second best chance per Barnwell), should they do it?

He's a blank slate to this commenter who doesn't watch college football, but he's apparently supposed to be much better than any QB from the last two draft classes.

I get that they just drafted a QB, but if you think Mariota can play, I think it would be really dumb to pass on him because "we just drafted Bortles". It would be reminiscent of them picking a punter over Russell Wilson because "we just drafted Blaine Gabbert".

Pretty much the same goes for Oakland re Carr, but they seem to have blown the number 1 pick this week and he at least showed much more this week and in some of his games earlier in the season than Bortles has.

14
by Guido Merkens :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 9:56am

Mariota might be better than Bortles, but the question is whether Mariota is better than (Bortles + top-5 pick).

Given that the Jaguars' offensive line is in shambles and they still have some significant holes on defense, I'm inclined to think that the Jaguars could use the extra draft picks. If it turns out that Bortles is terrible, they'll be near the top of the draft again next year and can pick a QB, but it seems like a waste of assets for a rebuilding team to give up on a top-5 draft pick after one year.

Right now Bortles is averaging 4.09 ANY/A. Other QBs who have averaged less than 4.5 ANY/A in their rookie year include Jeff George, Jake Plummer, Kerry Collins, Phil Simms, Matt Stafford, Troy Aikman, Donovan McNabb, John Elway, and Neil Lomax, all of whom had decent degrees of success during their career. It's certainly possible that Bortles is a bust, but it's still certainly possible that he turns into a good QB. I think the only reason the Jags should punt on Bortles is if there was a generational talent like Andrew Luck available, and I don't think Mariota is that.

24
by RickD :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 11:25am

And I suspect that the Jaguars would do better than getting one top 5 pick if they traded the #1 overall pick to a team that wanted Mariota.

There's a team in the Potomac area that seems to need help at the QB position...

32
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 11:45am

Wonder if Gus Bradley has the cajones to trot out all
his (implied) draft picks at captain.........

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

75
by tuluse :: Wed, 12/10/2014 - 12:40pm

Why draft Bortles so high if you don't think he's good?

I guess talent evaluators could admit they have no idea what they're doing and just take a top 5 QB every year until they find Peyton Manning, but they might want to put a competent team on the field in the meantime.

76
by Duff Soviet Union :: Wed, 12/10/2014 - 3:21pm

Why draft Ryan Leaf so high if you don't think he's good?

Talent evaluators make mistakes. Compounding a mistake by doubling down on it is probably not the way to go.

I've mentioned the Gabbert / Wilson mistake the Jaguars made (the Vikes and Titans also passed up Wilson because they had just drafted Christian Ponder and Jake Locker). All I'm saying is the Jags should draft the best player available with the pick they have. If that's Marcus Mariota, then a commitment to Blake Bortles shouldn't stop them. Someone mentioned trading down, and while I agree that would be the best way to go if they get an RG3 type offer, I think the success of the last team that made such an offer to trade up will act as a very strong incentive for other teams to not make such an offer.

77
by mehllageman56 :: Wed, 12/10/2014 - 4:00pm

Whoever gets the first pick will get good offers for it. The Bucs, Jets and Titans all need quarterbacks, and there are only two first round level quarterbacks in this draft, Mariota and Winston. Someone is going to be standing up, not finding a chair. There will be immense amounts of pressure on all three of those teams to not end up being the one without a quarterback. The irony is, Garrett Grayson may end up being better than Winston and Mariota.

79
by tuluse :: Wed, 12/10/2014 - 4:11pm

Well how sure are you that Bortles won't be good? How sure are you that Mariota will be? (I have no idea about this one, I sense less hype than Luck who was about the surest thing a QB can be). How much do you believe the Jags as constituted will be able to develop any QB? Bortles could be the next Steve Young and the team is just terrible.

4
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 7:17am

Interesting that Derek is great at avoiding sacks which is the polar opposite of his older brother David.

Rookie season in Houston 2002 - sacked on about 15% of dropbacks - 444 pass attempts + 76 sacks. Subsequent years not much better.

15
by Guido Merkens :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 9:56am

The Carr QBs... are evolving.

19
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 10:45am

His parents should have another kid, and maybe in 23 years he'll be the next Peyton Manning.

25
by D2K :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 11:25am

I would chalk it up to rookie QB's having absolutely no chance of being successful when drafted by expansion teams.

A rookie QB being thrust into action on any team is mostly a losing proposition. Its even more counter-productive when said rookie has to start for an expansion team.

28
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 11:38am

Have to say the Raiders offense hasn't been much better than an expansion team through much of this season. The RBs (McFadden & Jones-Drew) have been getting about 3yds per carry, the WRs can't get separation.

There's been a lot of 3&outs. I think it was around week 8 that I was listening to a game and the Raiders were just about to have had their second possession of the year that would last over 5-mins, then McFadden fumbled. I think it was the Browns game.

Early in the season there was a lot of garbage time yardage and TDs being picked up by the offense to leave them looking vaguely respectable in conventional stats at least.

5
by Ben :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 7:31am

Out of curiosity, what kept TY Hilton off of the receivers list? His traditional numbers were pretty good for the day.

26
by Scott Kacsmar :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 11:27am

Some of this isn't picked up by the numbers (but would be in our charting project), but watching the game this morning I would point out Hilton lost a fumble, dropped a touchdown in the red zone and was the target on an interception he was partially responsible for causing. Strong game at times, but he definitely had big mistakes.

31
by turbohappy :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 11:42am

Yeah I would say he and (mostly Haden) played to a hard-fought draw by big-time players. Big plays both ways.

46
by herewegobrownie... :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 1:12pm

Not surprising that the Browns' WDVOA went up slightly after that generally good defensive performance in a close loss (and that they slightly passed Houston after the latter's relatively flat win over JAX) but the Colts' also went up slightly, presumably because their defense completely shut down Hoyer/Gordon.

59
by Perfundle :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 3:53pm

Actually, he had noticeably better stats against Haden than against anyone else, which makes the remark by the commentators midway through the game that Cleveland did right getting Haden switched back to covering Hilton rather strange.

6
by GBS :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 8:01am

Hilton was targeted 15 times. The incompletions had to hurt.

Romo's writeup says the Bears-Cowboys game was on Thanksgiving. It was on a Thursday but...

7
by Will Allen :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 8:32am

Bridgewater has some attributes which tend to be part of a very good qb's portfolio, like fast recognition and getting through progressions pretty quickly. His primary drawbacks, which are that he can't throw the ball with as much authority as one would typically see a very good qb, which also results in a pronounced lack of accuracy on deeper throws, could be mostly mitigated if he developed consistently very sound mechanics. Unfortunately, it's a helluva lot harder to do that when your protection sucks most of the time. His protection sucks most of the time. If they don't fix that by next year, Bridgewater could end up another wasted qb draft pick for the Vikings.

Yeah it's really weird how Kalil's performance went over a cliff after a good rookie season, but I think Adrian Peterson's hideous parenting has revealed just how much the perceived performance of the Vikings offensive linemen of the last few years was hugely boosted by a HOF performance at running back. We saw something similar when Barry Sanders was in his prime.

9
by jmaron :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 9:29am

I'm not sure Bridgewater has as weak an arm as I thought earlier the year. The last few games I've seen some pretty impressive throws. He seems much less hesitant lately. And he's playing with backups to an oline that wasn't very good in the first place, his feature back is Matt Asiata and his top receiver was plucked off Cleveland's practice roster. Replacement numbers with that cast seems pretty impressive to me.

He's also averaging .8 yds per attempt more than Cassel did with a full roster (5.8 vs 5.0). IN the 2.5 games that Cassel and Ponder played the Vikings offence managed 1.3 yds per pass less than Bridgewater.

I'm starting to be pretty high on this kid, particularly in that he's quite young as a starter. He's 2 years younger than Carr. People don't seem to talk about that much, but to me that is a huge positive in Bridgewater's favour.

11
by Will Allen :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 9:38am

When he's mechanically sound, he's fine. He just doesn't have as much room for error mechanically as some of the really good qbs, who are blessed with the ability to really drive the ball. He's going to be more dependent on having good protection. This is manageable, if management pays attention.

18
by jmaron :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 10:43am

what I like about him is I very rarely think what the hell was he thinking when I watch him play. Maybe this is just a post-Ponder reaction, but he seems very competent in his decision making.

41
by commissionerleaf :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 12:41pm

His ceiling is Drew Brees. Brees has/had all the same problems (needs a clean pocket, lack of arm strength, fully capable of going on tilt), and the same assets (decision making, ability to work the full field, accuracy from the pocket).

Unfortunately, his floor is Greg McElroy.

43
by Will Allen :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 12:55pm

I think the Vikings would be crazy to cut Peterson in the offseason, to avoid having him take up 15 million in cap space. Bridgewater only takes about 1.7 million in cap space, I think, and unless they have some way to rapidly and significantly improve the o-line at at least a couple spots, 15 milion, for one more year of d-coordinators focusing on stopping a running back, may be the best money spent on qb development.

78
by mehllageman56 :: Wed, 12/10/2014 - 4:04pm

His floor is well above McElroy at this point. He's started and survived most of this season with a turnstile at Left Tackle. McElroy started one eleven sack disaster, and his brain might still be recovering from the concussion.

47
by mrh :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 1:18pm

Using pfr's game play finder, from Week 6 thru Week 13 http://pfref.com/tiny/Xklya (this throws out his relief appearance and best game by DYAR):

Bridgewater to Patterson (aka bad apple): 15/37, 40.5%, 161 yds, 4.4 ypa, 1 td, 2 int, 40.5 passer rating
Bridgewater to everyone else (bad apple to fruit): 146/220, 66.4%, 1508 yds, 6.9 ypa, 10 td, 6 int, 89.7 passer rating
Bridgewater to all other wrs (bad apple to apples): 71/117, 60.7%, 981 yds, 8.4 ypa 7 td, 4 int, 93.3 passer rating
Bridgewater to Charles Johnson (bad apple to replacement apple): 20/39, 51.3%, 336 yds, 8.6 ypa, 3 tds, 1 int, 95.7 passer rating

I don't know about you, but the problem seems clear to me...

48
by Will Allen :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 1:24pm

Which makes Zimmer's less than glowing remarks about Patterson all the more predictable.

8
by big10freak :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 9:19am

Green Bay won but obviously Julio Jones was too much for the Packer defense. I would feel better if Jones had made a series of impressive catches. Instead he was pretty much wide open on most plays and Ryan made good though not great passes. Sam Shields was completely overmatched and maybe the the team should have had him sit out even though he passed the concussion protocol.

Davon House of all people had the most 'success' if you can term it as such.

How this team can go toe to toe with Calvin Johnson and not be humiliated I guess says more about Stafford than anything else. Because GB had no real answer for Ryan/Jones

And lots of credit to the Atlanta offensive line. Other than a few rushes the line stymied the Packers pass rush

17
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 10:42am

I stopped watching the game at halftime. What happened in the 2nd half? Was it more the Packers defense going trading yard for time/prevent, or did the Falcons just get hot?

21
by Arkaein :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 10:51am

It seemed like GB had a lot of blitzes in their game plan, and refused to move off script. The blitzes kept not getting to Ryan, who was getting the ball out consistently against a lot of one-on-one coverages.

GB also played a lot of zone defense, which sorta makes sense in protecting a big lead, but at some point should have just said "double Julio". Atlanta was able to start quickly in the 2nd half with a 70+ yard completion to setup their first score, which should never happen when protecting a 24 point lead.

I was thinking about it this morning, and I think if GB did nothing but rush 3 on every play that Atlanta never gets close.

There are a few other points. Atlanta was 3 for 3 on fourth down conversions, including 2 TDs. GB also finished by taking a knee inside of Atlanta's 10 yard line. It never really felt like GB was going to blow the game, because Atlanta could really stop their offense (GB had three scoring drives in the second half, plus the kneel down), but GB use a bad strategy for burning the clock on defense.

23
by big10freak :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 11:13am

GB had to recover two onside kicks. Speaking only for myself I felt like GB was at risk of blowing the game.

Fortunately for GB, the onside kick attempts really stunk.

GB also did rush 3 periodically in the 4th quarter and somehow Jones was still getting wide open.

But I do agree that there were several big blitzes where Atlanta's line handled easily.

36
by Arkaein :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 12:19pm

I guess that more than the rush, it was the fact they played a lot of single high safety, according to a Journal Sentinel article.

I mean, if your number one priority is to take away big passing plays, you can pretty much call Cover 2 Man Under all day long. You'll be exploited underneath, but you'll have double coverage on just about any deep route.

I didn't feel too worried mainly because GB basically chose not to score at the end. That's a lot different than clinging onto a 6 point lead with a desperate defensive stand.

A win probability chart I saw gave the Falcons no more than a 13% chance at any point in the 2nd half (a few plays before their last TD), with 10% after the last TD. A bit of a scare, but I was definitely more angry than worried.

37
by big10freak :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 12:30pm

I appreciate the win probability matrices as much as anyone here but based on observation last night I disagreed with the numbers. I was fairly convinced that if Atlanta had recovered the onside after closing within 6 the Falcons were going to score a touchdown. And given that GB was already without timeouts the Packers would have been in serious trouble.

Agreed that the viewing experience in the second half was pretty unpleasant

53
by Flounder :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 2:51pm

But isn't the recovery rate for onside kicks everyone knows are coming 10 or 15%? The numbers seem pretty on track to me.

57
by Perfundle :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 3:41pm

One thing the numbers can't account for is the quality of the offenses and defenses in the game. If Atlanta was highly likely to score whenever they got the ball (and they were, with only three drives not ending in TDs or FG attempts, and they got better as the game progressed) then their win probability should have been higher in reality.

62
by Arkaein :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 5:57pm

GB's offense was every bit as good (one punt, no turnovers).

Even if Atlanta is more likely than the model to score on their next possession, so was GB. If Atlanta did get another TD, GB still only would have needed a FG to win.

I think the relative quality of offenses vs. defenses was close to a wash at that point. If any factors would have favored Atlanta over the standard probabilities, it would have to be the clock situation.

65
by Perfundle :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 6:18pm

The quality of the offense of the leading team is less important in end-game situations. All such offenses play far more conservatively, and Green Bay was no exception last night. Besides, had they succeeded at the second onside kick, Atlanta can waste most of the clock before scoring a TD.

The probability hinges on the fact that a team down 6 with 2:11 starting from their 45-yard line (pretty much the worst starting field position after a successful onside kick) only has a one-third chance of winning the game, according to the WP Calculator. I would argue that Atlanta would have had a far greater chance than that.

74
by Arkaein :: Wed, 12/10/2014 - 11:46am

I disagree with the idea that Atlanta can choose to waste time before scoring a TD. If you're down 6, you need to score a TD by any means possible. You can't screw around and then go for the TD the same way you can with a FG.

52
by justanothersteve :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 2:26pm

Julio was frequently lining up in the slot. The Packers have done this with Cobb to get single coverage (and two weeks ago putting him in the backfield to get him one-on-one with a LB against the Pats). For some reason, Capers never adjusted the coverage to double him or make sure the safety helps in the slot. Then again, Julio has apparently been playing on another level the last couple weeks and I'm not sure that would have helped.

22
by big10freak :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 11:04am

1. The offensive line of Atlanta played lights out
a. This stonewalled the GB pass rush most of the second half
2. The Packers started with Shields on Jones, failure. Moved to Williams. More failure. Back to Shields. Failure. Moved to House. Minimal success. Then with about 5 minutes left Jones got hurt and left the game. The Packers coverage improved but at that point Ryan DID make some really pinpoint passes. And see item 1.
3. Packers kept settling for field goals on their drives except for the big pass to Nelson

So overall, a combination of the Falcons getting hot with a helping hand from GB not doing much in response

39
by Will Allen :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 12:38pm

Speaking of bad defense, what the hell happened to the Madison squad on Saturday night? I replayed several Buckeyes big gainers on the DVR, and if you didn't know better, you'da thought many defenders had been assigned to run away from the ball. There seemed to be severe preparation issues, but that no doubt was affected by playing 3rd string qb on whom no film was available, but still has a mountain of talent. Ohio State's depth at that position is pretty stunning.

42
by big10freak :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 12:48pm

Wisconsin's competitive strategy is strongly predicated on good line play (both sides). The offensive line lost its starting center and playing against a good d-line the restructured line couldn't compete at the level needed. The playcalling also didn't help. Wisconsin needed to take a more aggressive approach early versus relying on the same approach. Success against Rutgers doesn't translate to success against OSU. The Buckeyes were all over the conga line approach (run, run, pass) and Wisconsin took WAY too long to adjust as the game spiraled out of control.

The d-line was flat out whipped. Warren Herring, nosetackle, was the linchpin of the defense and he was routinely engulfed by OSU linemen. Then mid-second quarter one of the starting ends who is a good run anchor went down the linebackers had nobody to take up blockers.

Toss in OSU making impressive catches multiple times, Stave and Gordon both pressing leading to horrible turnovers and even the OSU punter getting in the mix with his 72 yard boot and the combo was overwhelming.

Wisconsin needed to close the talent gap by being clever in their gameplan, winning some key one on ones and tackling/blocking their best. Instead, the gameplan was from early November, the one on ones were lost by a landslide and tackling/blocking were subpar at best

Just an overall disasterous effort

44
by Will Allen :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 12:58pm

What shocked me was the degree to which defenders were taking themselves out of plays, as opposed to being blocked out.

45
by big10freak :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 1:09pm

Wisconsin's aggressive pursuit to the ball lends itself to the players being exploited in that fashion against a team capable of using that usual strength against them.

Minnesota did the same to a lesser extent.

OSU was clearly well prepped for the game.

That was the most disheartening thing. Urban Meyer had his guys both drilled and ready to play at fever pitch. Anderson relied on the same plan that had worked for the season and tried his businesslike approach.

That more than anything led to the steamrolling. They couldn't match either wits or intensity.

49
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 1:33pm

rewatch JJ Watt against TCU Rose Bowl constantly being misdirected
hard to believe it was the same guy who terrorizes the NFL.

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

55
by techvet :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 3:21pm

Sitting Shields out might have been the better policy in retrospect. I wonder how many snaps Hawk had on the field.

The Lions offense only scored 10 points against the Packers at Ford Field and the Lions haven't won a game in the Badger State since 1991. Let's see how they do in Lambeau Field in the cold on the 28th. The Packers ended the game inside the Falcon's ten-yard line. A win is a win is a win.

58
by Perfundle :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 3:49pm

The Lions offense only scored 10 points against the Packers at Ford Field and the Lions haven't won a game in the Badger State since 1991.

Completely coincidentally, the Lions hadn't won 9 of their first 13 games since 1991 either, until this year. It's likely the Lions haven't win in Green Bay because they haven't been good.

61
by justanothersteve :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 4:45pm

They were fairly good for much of the 90's. Barry Sanders didn't retire until after the 1998 season and from 93-97 they had four winning seasons out of five, making the playoffs those four times.

64
by DisplacedPackerFan :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 6:01pm

Hawk played 8 snaps. I don't think Shields did as poorly as people thought, PFF claims he only gave up 66 yards to Jones. It was Williams who got burned for the 79 yard TD. http://goo.gl/FsU68L has a decent break down of playing time with some notes.

I also wasn't really worried that the Falcons were going to completely come back, but I was frustrated by the Packers play in the 2nd half. I didn't get the single high safety look they were playing in the 2nd half. I know Julio beat Peterson like a drum last week, and some of his wide open looks were because of great play on his part running the routes, something we see on the side when Nelson is sometimes wide open, it's not always a bad coverage, it's the receiver selling one route so well then shifting out of it that the defender didn't have a chance.

I was glad to see them exploit the 2 high safety look. The offensive line is so much better this year than it has been in the past, which helps the running game, and allows time for Rodgers to finally decide to throw the dump off. Most QB's make the decision in the first 4 seconds, Rodgers won't dump off till 6+ have passed it seems. But that is what you do against that.

69
by KB :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 7:45pm

Was Shields benched or was there an injury. He only allowed a 50% comp % if I remember right for 60 or so yards so it wasn't like he had a horrible game. I was really confused to see him not on the field without hearing about an injury. No way should Shields be pulled before Williams. Williams is the better zone CB which maybe played a role in the decision but when it comes to Man, its not even close between them anymore. I consider Shields a top 10 pure man coverage CB in the NFL easily. His athleticism is otherworldly(Am I the only one that saw him catch up to Jones from probably 20 yards behind on the long reception while Williams was in coverage). I'd be surprised if there was a handful of players in the NFL as fast as Shields running in a straight line. He very well could be the fastest in the NFL. Of course he is from Florida....

71
by DisplacedPackerFan :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 8:09pm

McCarthy claims it was in the plan all along to limit Shields playing time.

68
by KB :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 7:39pm

Well it didn't help that their best CB in Shields didn't play in the 2nd half. Add in the fact that GB didn't play very much man at all which their CB's are best at and the pass rush wasn't getting home and it was a recipe for disaster.

GB actually has some good really good CB's IMO, I was very surprised by the outcome of the pass defense. It's hard to say now but I really do believe GB has one of the better group of CB's in the NFL. Shields has had amazing success over the last 2 years against a majority of the best WR's in the NFL(He has won matchups against Johnson, Green, Brown, Gordon, Marshall, Jeffery and others over the last 2 years and in some cases shut them down. Green probably had the most success with a TD and about 70 yards but Shields also had an INT and was on him the entirety of the game). Hayward is a great slot CB, Williams has lost a step, and their backup CB House has the best size and has shown a lot of potential and seems to be improving quite a bit(He made a few good plays last night).

No group of CB's in the NFL will be able to perform up to their standards if the pass rush isn't having any success and last night that was absolutely the case. Still that doesn't equate to the bad play that GB's CB's had in the 2nd half. I also think the 24 lead going into halftime left them pretty complacent.

If they want to win a SB, they will absolutely have to perform better than they did. Capers needed to play to his players strengths and play more man. I was fairly puzzled by all the zone coverages and just simply blown coverages.

10
by Will Allen :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 9:35am

Haunted server repeat.

12
by stevenemacks :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 9:39am

"(I)t would be fair and accurate to say that is has been all downhill for the former Louisville Cardinal since...."

No, I don't that is either fair OR accurate, especially considering Bridgewater's most recent game netted 101 passing DYAR. Teddy's DYAR, in chronological order, has been 105, -252, -131, -38, 23, -77, -11, -2, and 101. The outlier in this data set is the Falcons game. If you remove that, it's showing a clear trend of a player positively progressing.

13
by stevenemacks :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 9:52am

pic.twitter.com/I7l8G402dX

For the graph.

20
by jmaron :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 10:47am

I agree - if you watch that Atlanta game you can see he benefited from short throws and lots of yac. He also was under very little duress. He lucked out on some bad throws including one that should have definitely been intercepted. And, he missed an easy deep ball.

Conversely, in the Jet game I think you'd be hard pressed to point out any major errors or bad throws. Johnson could have caught a 50 yard td - on a ball that was under thrown, but very catchable and the end of the half int was a good throw that could have drawn a pass interference call.

16
by jmaron :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 10:39am

What I didn't like about Carr's college stats is his stats under pressure were really awful. I haven't watched him at all this year - I'd be curious to hear how he's done when under pressure from any Raider fans here.

27
by RickD :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 11:28am

You think the Raider fans here have been pressuring Derek Carr? I guess with raiderjoe, anything is possible.

38
by jmaron :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 12:32pm

I certainly could have written that sentence a little more clearly.

40
by RickD :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 12:39pm

Just having a little fun.

29
by nuclearbdgr :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 11:39am

Rodgers had several nice scrambles/runs, including the one right before the two minute warning at the end of the game - my guess is that his -7 DYAR comes from his fumble on the scramble near the goal line?

30
by N8- :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 11:42am

The GB defensive strategy in the 2nd half was to let Julio Jones catch passes until he tired out or was injured. It worked.

33
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 11:54am

I found this amusing

"Blount had runs of 23 and 11 yards and two other first downs, but he was stuffed for no gain or a loss eight times, plus three other carries that gained exactly 1 yard each. It's not good when your median carry only gains 1 yard. "

given the position of Marcel Reece above....

yes, apples to potatoes...

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

34
by Not Jimmy :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 11:58am

I was just watching the ESPN gamecast and didn't see any of the plays. But I found myself screaming "LET THEM SCORE!" after the failed onside kick. ATL's only chance to get the ball back with enough time to score twice was a turnover - not - or after a quick touchdown... Watching the game, did anyone think the same thing? Did GB basically kneel with those final runs?

- Anything is possible when you have no idea what you are talking about.

35
by big10freak :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 12:16pm

There was chatter on the Packer SB Nation blog to that effect. That once STarks got it inside the 10 on that big run Atlanta was better served trying to score/recover onside/score again in 2 minutes plus than to try and get the ball back through use of stops/timeouts.

But then as I mentioned above their kicker had a poor night on onsides. The first one Boykin recovered easily, the second missed the target of hitting the up man for a ricochet attempt by a mile and was also recovered easily.

50
by steveNC :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 1:57pm

It would be quite interesting to see Roethlisberger's DYAR (or DYAR/game) versus "good" teams and versus "bad" teams this year, or for 2012-2014. The Steelers have a much better record against teams that are 2+ games over .500 than they do versus teams that are 2+ games under .500 over 2012-2014, which is a bit surprising. Is it mainly due to QB play? I realize that there are many ways of defining "good" and "bad" teams, but the theory is that the teams with bad records don't inspire the best in BR, and now the defense isn't generally good enough to win the game.

PIT versus teams 2+ games under .500 at the time (7-9):
2012:
week 3: at Oak (0-2) Steelers lose 34-31
week 6: at Ten (1-4) Steelers lose 26-23
week 10: vs KC (1-7) Steelers win 16-13 OT
week 12: at Cle (2-8) Steelers lose 20-14
week 14: vs SD (4-8) Steelers lose 34-24
week 17: vs Cle (5-10) Steelers win 24-10
2013:
week 4: vs Minn (0-3) Steelers lose 34-27
week 8: Oak (2-4) Steelers lose 21-18
week 10: Buff (3-6) Steelers win 23-10
week 12: Cle (4-6) Steelers win 27-11
week 17: Cle (4-11) Steelers win 20-7
2014:
week 4: vs TB (0-3) Steelers lose 27-24
week 5: Jax (0-4) Steelers win 17-9
week 10: Jets (1-8) Steelers lose 20-13
week 11: Tenn (2-7) Steelers win 27-24
week 13: NO (4-7) Steelers lose 35-32

PIT versus teams 2+ games over .500 at the time (9-4):
2012
week 5: vs Phil (3-1) win 16-14
week 9: at NYG (6-2) win 24-20
week 11: vs Bal (7-2) lose 13-10
week 13: at Bal (9-2) win 23-20
week 16: vs Cin (8-6) lose 13-10
2013
week 3: vs Chi (2-0) lose 40-23
week 9: at NE (6-2) lose 55-31
week 11: vs Det (6-3) win 37-27
week 15: vs Cin (9-5) win 30-20
2014
week 3: at Car (2-0) win 37-19
week 8: vs Ind (5-2) win 51-34
week 9: vs Bal (5-3) win 43-23
week 14: at Cin (8-3-1) win 42-21

66
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 7:01pm

to site owner(s)

is it ok for users to plot data accessible to public (not premium) and post it here in response to this interesting question?

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

67
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 7:09pm

Yes, so long as you give us credit for the data if you post it anywhere else.

70
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 8:05pm

Thank you for the reply.

I was kind of surprised to see some features in this.

Plot incoming at some point...

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

80
by steveNC :: Thu, 12/11/2014 - 12:59am

Are you saying the numbers by game are available outside of premium content? I couldn't find that.

51
by Franchise_Punter :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 2:10pm

"After his big day against San Francisco, can we say for sure that Derek Carr has been the best rookie quarterback this year?"

Absolutely not. He may have narrowly pulled ahead in DVOA after one outlier game against a trainwreck of a team (aided by Mettenberger playing with a separated shoulder, two backup receivers, a backup center, and two third string tackles), but the rest of his season has been atrocious. He's had the best pass protection of any rookie quarterback, but he's still last in the NFL in YPA by a significant margin.

63
by commissionerleaf :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 6:01pm

Also, he looks like the lead singer from Green Day in concert makeup.

72
by Duff Soviet Union :: Wed, 12/10/2014 - 5:20am

A train wreck of a team that is over .500, 14th in DVOA and 5th in defensive DVOA? Seriously?

73
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Wed, 12/10/2014 - 10:07am

And good pass protection is what use with WRs who are awful?

54
by techvet :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 3:14pm

Yes, I noticed the same. The Bears played the Cowboys on the Thursday *after* Thanksgiving.

56
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 3:23pm

Out of curiosity, what kept TY Hilton off of the receivers list? His traditional numbers were pretty good for the day.

Just 11 DYAR. A 53 percent catch rate (10 catches, nine incompletes) is pretty bad. Fumbles are even worse. And he only had six first downs on the day.

Romo's writeup says the Bears-Cowboys game was on Thanksgiving. It was on a Thursday but...

Can you tell my mind gets jumbled this time of year?

Rodgers had several nice scrambles/runs, including the one right before the two minute warning at the end of the game - my guess is that his -7 DYAR comes from his fumble on the scramble near the goal line?

I don’t get the play-by-play breakdowns for Monday night games, but yes, red-zone fumbles are very very bad plays.

60
by TomC :: Tue, 12/09/2014 - 4:00pm

I'm glad that we can finally give a definitive assessment of the quarterbacks in the AFC West: Derek Carr is awesome, lights-out; Alex Smith and Peyton Manning are interchangeably mediocre, and Philip Rivers is a washed-out bum.

I love the NFL. Any given Sunday...

81
by BJR :: Thu, 12/11/2014 - 5:04pm

Amusing that even in bizarro world, Alex Smith is still a interchangeably mediocre QB.