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29 Dec 2014

Week 17 Quick Reads

by Aaron Schatz

Traditionally, for the last week of the year, Quick Reads is a rundown of the best and worst players of the season by DYAR, rather than analysis of Week 17. Vince Verhei is writing that article for tomorrow. For those of you who want to see Week 17, however, here are the tables with the best and worst DYAR totals for the final week of the season. You will all have to provide the commentary yourselves, as we're all busy with 100,000 other end-of-season tasks.

Tables with full-season stats for players are now online. Tables for team stats, along with full-season DVOA ratings and commentary, will be up later this afternoon.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
1.
Aaron Rodgers GB
17/22
226
2
0
198
183
15
2.
Geno Smith NYJ
20/25
358
3
0
192
209
-16
3.
Joe Flacco BAL
22/36
312
2
0
154
152
3
4.
Colin Kaepernick SF
15/26
204
2
0
107
79
28
5.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
24/38
317
2
1
99
136
-38
6.
Eli Manning NYG
28/53
429
1
1
73
73
0
7.
Mark Sanchez PHI
23/36
292
2
1
68
65
3
8.
Matt Hasselbeck IND
13/19
155
1
0
53
63
-9
9.
Kyle Orton BUF
16/23
176
1
0
51
51
0
10.
Cam Newton CAR
10/16
114
1
0
50
23
26
11.
Matthew Stafford DET
21/41
217
3
0
40
26
15
12.
Tony Romo DAL
22/34
299
2
1
36
36
0
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
13.
Andrew Luck IND
10/16
160
2
0
34
33
1
14.
Ryan Lindley ARI
23/39
316
2
3
25
25
0
15.
Tom Brady NE
8/16
80
0
0
16
12
4
16.
Peyton Manning DEN
21/37
273
0
0
11
31
-20
17.
Case Keenum HOU
25/35
250
2
1
-7
-10
3
18.
Russell Wilson SEA
17/25
239
0
1
-11
-16
5
19.
Chase Daniel KC
16/27
157
0
0
-13
-22
9
20.
Jay Cutler CHI
23/36
172
1
0
-25
-45
20
21.
Teddy Bridgewater MIN
17/25
209
1
1
-28
-36
9
22.
Jimmy Garoppolo NE
10/17
90
0
0
-28
-28
-1
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
23.
Andy Dalton CIN
27/38
244
2
2
-37
-33
-4
24.
Josh McCown TB
14/22
115
1
1
-50
-48
-2
25.
Ryan Tannehill MIA
23/39
259
1
0
-52
-52
0
26.
Philip Rivers SD
21/34
291
0
2
-68
-64
-4
27.
Drew Brees NO
24/38
281
1
3
-69
-69
0
28.
Connor Shaw CLE
14/28
177
0
1
-71
-68
-3
29.
Matt Ryan ATL
29/47
260
0
2
-79
-78
-1
30.
Blake Bortles JAC
14/33
117
0
0
-90
-112
23
31.
Shaun Hill STL
26/37
243
0
2
-93
-93
0
32.
Derek Carr OAK
18/36
158
1
1
-96
-92
-4
33.
Robert Griffin WAS
27/41
336
1
2
-101
-104
3
34.
Charlie Whitehurst TEN
12/27
72
1
0
-118
-127
8


Five most valuable running backs (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
DeMarco Murray DAL
20
100
1
3/3
21
0
54
33
21
2.
Lamar Miller MIA
19
178
1
0/2
0
0
43
49
-6
3.
Frank Gore SF
25
144
0
2/3
5
0
37
41
-4
4.
C.J. Anderson DEN
13
87
3
2/3
20
0
34
52
-19
5.
Le'veon Bell PIT
8
20
0
6/6
80
0
25
-11
36


Five most valuable running backs (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
C.J. Anderson DEN
13
87
3
2/3
20
0
34
52
-19
2.
Lamar Miller MIA
19
178
1
0/2
0
0
43
49
-6
3.
Frank Gore SF
25
144
0
2/3
5
0
37
41
-4
4.
DeMarco Murray DAL
20
100
1
3/3
21
0
54
33
21
5.
Shonn Greene TEN
11
94
0
0/0
0
0
23
23
0


Least valuable running back (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Matt Forte CHI
17
51
0
8/12
23
0
-61
-15
-46


Least valuable running back (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Chris Ivory NYJ
13
29
0
1/1
8
1
-12
-30
18


Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
1.
Eric Decker NYJ
10
11
221
22.1
1
86
2.
Michael Floyd ARI
8
12
153
19.1
2
76
3.
Randall Cobb GB
4
5
80
20.0
2
57
4.
Brian Hartline MIA
5
6
94
18.8
0
38
5.
Antonio Brown PIT
7
13
128
18.3
1
37


Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
1.
Marqise Lee JAC
2
8
8
4.0
0
-39

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 29 Dec 2014

33 comments, Last at 31 Dec 2014, 4:38pm by Vincent Verhei

Comments

1
by Tom Gower :: Mon, 12/29/2014 - 2:39pm

Congratulations to Matt Forte for breaking Larry Centers' record for most catches in the season by a running back.

2
by techvet :: Mon, 12/29/2014 - 2:45pm

8 catches for 23 yards - what a glorious day! If Forte is breaking the record, then what does that say about the Bears' receiving game?

3
by Travis :: Mon, 12/29/2014 - 3:00pm

Almost as good as LaDainian Tomlinson's final two games in 2003 to get to 100 catches - 6 catches (8 targets) for 8 yards, followed by 8 catches (15 targets!) for 17 yards.

That last game was particularly special; the last two plays of the Chargers' final non-kneeldown series were passes to Tomlinson for -4 and then, on 3rd and 23 maybe 10 yards out of game-clinching field-goal range, 6.

23
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 12/30/2014 - 10:52am

Wasn't there some terrible Jets team in the 1980's where the fullback was the leading receiver (he was no Larry Centers)? I think I remember Tanier talking about it one time.

26
by Travis :: Tue, 12/30/2014 - 2:14pm

Not 1980s, but Richie Anderson led both the 2000 Jets AND the 2003 Cowboys in receptions.

28
by mehllageman56 :: Tue, 12/30/2014 - 2:28pm

2000 Jets weren't that bad a team; they finished 9-7, one game out of the playoffs.

29
by Travis :: Tue, 12/30/2014 - 3:21pm

Neither were the 2003 Cowboys - that was the year they went 10-6 with Quincy Carter at QB.

12
by TomC :: Mon, 12/29/2014 - 6:29pm

It was especially painful to hear Dick Stockton and Brady Quinn praising Forte to the skies as he continually failed to avoid tacklers on short passes and made the wrong cut on running plays. I like Forte a lot, and he has certainly had a productive year, but he was terrible yesterday, and (surprise) the Fox z-team didn't seem to notice.

15
by dbostedo :: Mon, 12/29/2014 - 7:15pm

I always wonder if they really didn't notice, or just can't say.

I like to imagine their commercial break talk is stuff like :

BQ : Many Forte's catches have been pretty worthless today.
DS : Yeah, but he's had so many, and we should pump the record.
====Back from break====
DS : And we're back in Minneapolis where Matt Forte is having a big game, as he's done all year.

16
by Steve in WI :: Mon, 12/29/2014 - 7:20pm

I really don't know what's wrong with Forte...whether his age is catching up with him, whether he's making poor decisions at the line, whether he's been a victim of the Bears' inability to pass the ball downfield, or what. And certainly, I think he's arguably the hardest-working, most professional guy on that offense right now. But regardless of the traditional stats he's piled up, he sure hasn't looked impressive this season.

17
by justanothersteve :: Mon, 12/29/2014 - 7:39pm

Another possible explanation is the regression across the Bears OL. After getting the best blocking of his career last year, holes he is expecting may not be there.

30
by TomC :: Tue, 12/30/2014 - 4:13pm

Oh the OL undoubtedly has regressed, but on Sunday I saw several plays in which the hole was there and Forte didn't see it or mistakenly thought he could do more with a cutback. (Disclaimer: I am no Ben Muth, so it's possible I was seeing phantom holes.)

32
by ZDNeal :: Wed, 12/31/2014 - 4:08pm

If a running back is consistently thrown to in bad situations (where the best option would be to drop the pass) what's the best way for him to maximize DYAR in those situations, drop or catch and hope to make it back to the LoS?

33
by Vincent Verhei :: Wed, 12/31/2014 - 4:38pm

A dropped pass would still be an incomplete target, which would hurt his DYAR. So the only reason (for DYAR) that intentionally dropping a pass would ever be a good idea is if the RB was well behind the line of scrimmage and surrounded by defenders, and guaranteed to lose yards on a catch.

4
by Hurt Bones :: Mon, 12/29/2014 - 3:19pm

Wow. Not that Flacco wasn't lights out if the 4th quarter, but I'm guessing he got a big adjustment from facing the No.2 pass defense.

5
by jonnyblazin :: Mon, 12/29/2014 - 3:28pm

Yeah considering how he looked for the first 3 quarters, his stat line looks awfully nice.

6
by Ben :: Mon, 12/29/2014 - 3:41pm

So, is Matt Hasselbeck the second best QB in the AFC south?

7
by big10freak :: Mon, 12/29/2014 - 4:14pm

So where was Eddie Lacy for rushers?

31
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 12/30/2014 - 6:21pm

Finally had time to answer this:

So where was Eddie Lacy for rushers?

Not among the top 20 running backs. He had 8 DYAR rushing, 7 receiving, 15 total. 100 yards isn't a very good day when it takes you 26 carries to get there, even against a great run defense like Detroit. Lacy only had two 10-yard runs, and just one other first down, but he was hit for no gain or a loss five times, once on fourth-and-1, and he also had a fumble. The fumble was worth -11 DYAR; the failed fourth-and-1, -8. It’s hard to have a good day when 18 of your 26 runs gain 3 yards or less.

He also caught 3 of 4 passes for 26 total yards and two first downs.

8
by MilkmanDanimal :: Mon, 12/29/2014 - 4:57pm

Josh McCown doesn't get bonus DYAR for getting himself sacked twice at the end of the game, including once for a safety?

And yes, I absolutely think he got himself sacked twice.

9
by Led :: Mon, 12/29/2014 - 5:06pm

What, if anything, does Geno Smith's week 17 performance mean? A breakthrough, or just fools gold? I'm going with the latter.

The following guys have had perfect 158.3 passer rating (min 20 attempts) in addition to the usual suspects (Manning, Warner, Brady, Roethlisberger, Brees): Alex Smith (2013), Nick Foles (2013), Donovan McNabb (2007), Kerry Collins (2002), Doug Flutie (2000), Jeff Blake (1995), Davie Krieg (1995), Craig Erickson (1994). The inclusion of Erickson on that list proves that pure flukes do happen, but everybody else had at least a decent NFL career (if barely, in the case of Blake) with Foles still TBD. I think Geno is somewhere in the Erickson to Blake range, and he'll have a career post-2014 as a backup/spot starter if he is lucky. I suppose there's still a small chance he could turn into a decent starter, but I wouldn't bet on it.

11
by RickD :: Mon, 12/29/2014 - 6:06pm

Geno's college career was like that. He'd have games where he threw for several TDs and looked brilliant. And a few weeks later he'd have several INTs and looked awful. I would take any Week 17 performance with a huge grain of salt. It was a meaningless game for both teams, and I think the Dolphins were demoralized by how badly their season turned out after a promising start.

13
by TomC :: Mon, 12/29/2014 - 6:34pm

I would take any Week 17 performance with a huge grain of salt.

Yes, especially if it's an obvious outlier compared to the rest of a guy's season or career. I remember a game in 1998 when an undrafted rookie RB (James Allen) for a terrible Bears team gained >150 yards on 20-ish carries against an equally terrible Ravens team that was trying to get their coach (Ted Marchibroda) fired. Dave Wannstedt loved what he saw, and Allen started for the Bears for a couple of years (averaging about 3.5 yards a carry).

10
by Biebs :: Mon, 12/29/2014 - 5:47pm

Geno will have a chance to win the 2015 Jets starting job. My feeling is that Mariotta/Winston will go in the top 3, or they will drop a bunch. I just don't see the Jets taking either. Guys like Locker, Ponder, Gabbert, and Hoyer will be out there (along with Vick), and I could see the Jets (among other teams) taking a shot on those guys. But, as bad as Geno has been, I don't see any of them coming in as the automatic #1 starter over Geno Smith.

Ryan Fitzpatrick had a game with 250+ passing DYAR. So, one great game by Geno doesn't exactly sell me on much.

14
by erniecohen :: Mon, 12/29/2014 - 7:03pm

There's something wrong with DYAR if Stafford's performance yesterday rates as +40.

22
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 12/30/2014 - 10:42am

Well not really, because:

1)The Packers have a pretty good pass defense, so there is some opponent adjustment that helps him.
2)He had a couple very successful scrambles (accounts for 14 of his 40 DYAR).
3)He had no turnovers
4)He led 3 TD drives and three 3 TD passes (yes, one was in garbage time, but for predictive purposes that counts the same)
5)Remember that DYAR is an accumulation stat, not a rate stat like DVOA. So all you need for positive DYAR is a lot of plays without any major screwups. Stafford had like 45 dropbacks, so only getting +40 DYAR when you had no turnovers and only gave up 2 sacks is not very impressive. The fact he was 11th suggests it was a terrible week for quarterbacks, not that the system is broken.

27
by Perfundle :: Tue, 12/30/2014 - 2:21pm

It wasn't garbage time, considering they still could've tied the game.

18
by David C :: Mon, 12/29/2014 - 8:00pm

Way to go Big Ben for making it to No. 1 in DYAR! This is a nice peak for what's been a great career.

19
by OldFox :: Mon, 12/29/2014 - 11:24pm

Interesting that Connor Shaw's performance at Baltimore earned him the #28 slot in DYAR for Week 17, putting him ahead of Ryan, Bortles, Hill, Carr, RG3 and Whitehurst. I'm a Browns fan and I was curious to see Shaw in action. I came away mostly disappointed; my assessment was that he was a smart, gritty kid, but that he just didn't have a good enough arm to ever make it in the NFL. The Cleveland media people surprised me by praising his performance, but I kind of wrote that off, figuring that they were mainly praising Shaw as a way of tweaking Manziel, whom they despise. However, DYAR is also a bit kinder to Shaw than I expected, so now I'm starting to think that I judged him too harshly. I'd be curious to hear what others on this site have to say after his performance. I still don't think he's got enough of an arm to be given serious consideration as a starting quarterback, but then again, I'm no expert.

20
by Hurt Bones :: Tue, 12/30/2014 - 9:25am

Spunk!. The kid has spunk. Making a note to myself work spunk into conversation more often. Honestly 28th isn’t that great regardless of who he’s above. Plus this is the first time anyone has seen him. What kind of film did the Ravens get see of Connor. The next time if there is a next time, the next opponent will review this performance and he probably won’t even do this well, but the kid does have spunk.

21
by JimZipCode :: Tue, 12/30/2014 - 10:41am

Ravens fan here: I thought Shaw made decent decisions under pressure, but had an absolute noodle arm. I completely agree with your assessment that he doesn't have enough arm to make it as a starter. Probably smart & gritty, but can't really threaten defenses.

Can arm strength be improved?

24
by ChrisS :: Tue, 12/30/2014 - 11:10am

Rodgers was pretty darn effecient/effective with his Dyar almost the same as his yards. Geno's dyar is a litle bettered than 50% and Flacco is a little worse than 50%. I am sure the adjustment helps Rodgers a lot but still a heck of a game.

25
by tuluse :: Tue, 12/30/2014 - 12:56pm

Unless he gets hurt or his effectiveness drops like a rock, Matt Forte is almost assuredly going to pass Walter Payton for most receptions in Chicago Bears history. Probably next year.

And people say they haven't joined the 21st century passing trend.