Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

15 Sep 2014

Week 2 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

Jay Cutler’s performance wasn’t the best of Week 2. But it was probably the most fascinating.

We all knew that the Chicago Bears’ passing game would lean heavily this season on Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, and with those two players banged up on Sunday night, it was hard to imagine how Chicago could have much success. For a good chunk of the game, it was worse than anyone feared. Including real estate lost on penalties, their first six drives produced nearly as many punts (six, one of them blocked) as yards gained (8) (no, that is not a typo, their first six drives produced 8 total yards; three of those drives actually lost yards). Their seventh drive was an 80-yard march resulting in a Marshall touchdown, but even that had as much to do with San Francisco’s defensive mistakes (the 49ers committed three penalties on the drive, for 35 yards and two first downs, including a third-down conversion) as it did with anything the Bears did well. Cutler finished the first half going 10-of-20 for 64 yards, with one sack, one fumbled snap, and only three first downs (including the Marshall score).

The 49ers were still up 17-7 at the break, and they added a field goal on their first drive of the second half (a 14-play, 9:04 campaign) to go up 20-7. The Bears were down two scores with less than 21 minutes to play. That’s not usually an insurmountable lead in today’s NFL, but given Cutler’s rotten day to that point, it was hard to see a comeback in the cards.

And then Cutler went on a hot streak the likes of which we’ve rarely seen, throwing just one incompletion the rest of the day. The next drive began a little slow, as Cutler started 3-of-4 for 4 total yards and no successful plays, but the Bears maintained possession thanks to two more San Francisco defensive penalties to convert third downs. And then, for the last 18-plus minutes of game time Cutler went 10-of-10 for 106 yards, with every pass counting as a success. Three of those passes went for touchdowns (thanks in part to San Francisco turnovers that set the Bears up with good field position), four others went for first downs, and the others were a 5-yard gain on first-and-10 and an 11-yard gain on first-and-15.

When the smoke cleared, the Bears had an absurd 28-20 win. Cutler finished 26th among qualifying quarterbacks in first-half DYAR, but first by an enormous margin in second-half DYAR. The visual graph of Cutler’s progressive DYAR total (see Figure 1) is even more striking. Please note that I have done nothing whatsoever to alter the visualization of this graph. I have not manipulated the data, nor have I artificially smoothed the line. Cutler’s start really was that consistently bad, and his finish really was that consistently great. And he needed almost all of it -- he hit such depths that even after the touchdown that made it 20-14, he was still hovering right around the zero-DYAR threshold. He needed those last three plays (including two more touchdowns) to get solidly into positive numbers.

For comparison's sake, here is Colin Kaepernick's progressive DYAR against the Bears from the same game (Figure 2). It's a lot worse, obviously, but more to the point it's a lot more jagged, with good plays mixed in amongst the bad, not all saved until the end. In that sense, it's a lot more typical of what we would expect from most quarterbacks in most weeks.

Leading Rushers

As promised, here are the leading running backs for this week by rushing value alone:

(Anyone else find it ironic that we started listing these every week, and then this season the top rushers are usually the top overall running backs anyway?)

The least valuable rusher of the week was Buffalo's Fred Jackson (12-24-0, -27 DYAR). Jackson's first carry against Miami was an 11-yard gain on first-and-10. He didn't have another successful carry all day, with a long gain of 4, four runs for no gain or a loss, and an average gain of 3.5 feet (not yards) per carry.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
1.
Peyton Manning DEN
21/26
242
3
0
178
178
0
Manning had 11 throws on second down. Ten of them were completed for 80 total yards, one touchdown, and four other first downs. The 11th resulted in a 17-yard DPI.
2.
Nick Foles PHI
21/37
331
1
1
147
141
6
3.
Philip Rivers SD
28/37
284
3
0
144
146
-2
Odds are that this game will look even better later in the year when opponent adjustments kick in. His DYAR is also dinged for a pair of fumbled snaps that don't tell us much about how he performed as a passer. Rivers had the league's best DYAR on short passes, where he went 26-of-31 for 243 yards with two touchdowns and 13 other first downs. Only five of those completions counted as failed plays, and all of those came in the second half.
4.
Kirk Cousins WAS
22/33
250
2
0
130
130
0
Cousins' first pass came with more than eight minutes left in the first quarter. He didn't throw an incompletion until nearly 22 minutes of game time had passed, and by that time Washington was ahead 21-7. He started 12-of-12 for 139 yards and a touchdown, with five other first downs, plus a 14-yard DPI.
5.
Aaron Rodgers GB
25/42
346
3
0
120
103
17
Rodgers' first seven pass plays produced two sacks, two turnovers, and 3 net yards. He made up for it later with the long ball. He had the league's best DYAR on deep balls, going 3-of-6 for 136 yards, plus a 27-yard DPI.
6.
Joe Flacco BAL
21/29
166
2
0
104
110
-6
This was quite the streaky game. In the first and third quarters, Flacco went 15-of-17 for 123 yards with two touchdowns and eight other first downs, plus a 23-yard DPI. Only Andy Dalton had more DYAR in that timeframe.
7.
Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU
14/19
139
2
0
93
93
0
Fitzpatrick's average pass traveled just 4.9 yards past the line of scrimmage, shortest of any quarterback this week. No, I don't no how many times Fitzpatrick has "led" the league in this category, but I bet this isn't the first time.
8.
EJ Manuel BUF
16/26
202
1
0
86
101
-14
This game could have been an even bigger blowout if Manuel had played better in the red zone. His first five red-zone passes (over three separate drives in the first half) produced four incomplete passes and a 7-yard gain on third-and-9. He had one red-zone pass in the second half, and that went for a touchdown that put the Bills up 23-10.
9.
Andy Dalton CIN
15/23
252
1
0
86
85
1
Dalton had the league's worst DYAR throwing to the outside (8-of-14 for 27 yards and two first downs), but the league's best DYAR throwing to the middle (7-of-9 for 225 yards, with every completion gaining at least 16 yards and a first down.
10.
Cam Newton CAR
22/34
281
1
0
83
76
7
What kind of effect has Kelvin Benjamin had on the Panthers' offense? Brandon LaFell led the team in 2013 with six receptions on deep passes. In two pro games, Benjamin already has five receptions on deep balls, including two against Detroit this week. Newton threw seven deep balls against the Lions, completing four of them for 87 yards.
11.
Austin Davis STL
22/29
235
0
0
76
76
0
Inside the Tampa Bay 40, Davis went 4-of-7 for 33 yards with one first down and one sack.
12.
Tom Brady NE
15/22
151
1
0
69
76
-8
Brady threw 24 passes on the day (including two DPIS), with 18 going to the left side of the field. He completed 12 of them for 128 yards with a touchdown and six other first downs, and also drew a 12-yard DPI.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
13.
Jay Cutler CHI
23/34
176
4
0
66
57
8
14.
Brian Hoyer CLE
24/40
204
1
0
54
54
0
Hoyer threw seven deep passes against the Saints. None of them were complete, though one did pick up a 19-yard DPI.
15.
Alex Smith KC
26/42
255
0
0
53
50
3
On third downs (including one fourth-down pass), Smith went 10-of-13 for 132 yards, with every completion picking up a first down.
16.
Russell Wilson SEA
17/25
202
2
0
52
52
0
Wilson's numbers would be a lot higher except for a sack-fumble in the second quarter, and a bad finish. In the fourth quarter, he went 4-of-8 for 26 yards and only one first down -- and that came on a 14-yard gain on the last play of the game with Seattle down 30-21.
17.
Derek Carr OAK
27/42
263
1
2
40
16
25
Life as a quarterback in Oakland: All of Carr's passing plays came with the Raiders trailing, and all but one of them down by at least 14 points. On third and fourth downs, he went 4-of-8 for 26 yards with two first yards and an interception, the word third-down DYAR of any quarterback this week.
18.
Josh McCown TB
16/20
179
0
1
36
15
21
Somehow, McCown managed to rank this low despite a league-best 67 percent Success Rate. He only completed two deep passes -- or, one more than Mohamed Sanu.
19.
Drew Brees NO
27/39
237
2
1
27
26
1
Brees had the worst first-quarter DYAR of any quarterback this week (and as we shall explain when we get to Jake Locker, that's saying quite a bit. On the Saints' first four drives he went 7-of-12 for 23 yards with one first down and one sack.
20.
Eli Manning NYG
26/39
277
2
2
18
17
1
It was not a strong finish for Eli. After the Cardinals kicked a field goal to go up 22-14, Manning went 7-of-15 for 59 yards with three first downs, one interception, and one sack.
21.
Tony Romo DAL
19/29
176
1
0
14
14
0
Romo only threw three deep passes against Tennessee, completing two of them for 40 yards.
22.
Matthew Stafford DET
27/48
293
1
1
11
8
3
Like Romo, Stafford also completed two deep passes in his game against Carolina -- in nine passes, with an interception. But hey, those two completions gained 46 yards.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
23.
Andrew Luck IND
20/34
172
3
1
11
10
1
24.
Geno Smith NYJ
16/32
176
1
1
1
-10
11
Smith didn't have much luck targeting the middle of the field, going 4-of-8 for 36 yards with two first downs.
25.
Drew Stanton ARI
14/29
167
0
0
-27
-27
0
Stanton's average pass traveled 11.6 yards past the line of scrimmage, and his average completion came 8.4 yards downfield, both the highest figures of any passer this week. Really! Drew Stanton!
26.
Ryan Tannehill MIA
31/49
241
1
1
-59
-49
-10
Tannehill had eight failed completions, tied with Drew Brees and one behind Matt Ryan for most in the league.
27.
Colin Kaepernick SF
21/34
248
1
3
-64
-59
-5
Kaepernick was this week's worst first-down quarterback, going 5-of-12 for 58 yards with three first downs, two interceptions, and three sacks.
28.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
22/37
217
0
1
-69
-69
0
Roethlisberger was the league's worst quarterback inside the opponents' 40, where he went 6-of-9 for 46 yards with two first downs, one sack, and one interception.
29.
Jake Locker TEN
18/34
234
1
2
-71
-69
-2
Locker pulled things together after halftime, but in the first half he was by far the worst quarterback of the week, going 4-of-12 for 26 yards with one interception, one sack, and not a picking up a single first down.
30.
Matt Ryan ATL
24/44
231
1
3
-105
-119
14
Remember when we said that Andy Dalton was the league's best quarterback when throwing to the middle of the field? Well, his counterpart on Sunday was the worst, going 5-of-15 for 84 yards with three first downs and two interceptions.
31.
Matt Cassel MIN
19/36
202
2
4
-164
-170
6
It's not just that Cassel was awful, it's that he got worse as the game went along. By DYAR, his fourth quarter was worse than his third quarter, which was worse than his second, which was worse than his first. His average completion came just 2.7 yards past the line of scrimmage, least of any quarterback this week.
32.
Chad Henne JAC
14/28
193
1
1
-171
-175
4
Henne was sacked 10 times, the most of any quarterback since Greg McElroy for the Jets in 2012. He did not pick up a first down until the Jags were down by 21 points in the second quarter, and only had four first downs on the day. On first and second downs, he went 9-of-20 for 55 yards with one first down, one interception, and four sacks. You know, maybe it wasn't Blaine Gabbert's fault after all.

Five Six most valuable running backs
Rk
Player
Team
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Real No. 1.
Darren Sproles PHI
26
1
152
0
81
13
68
Um, oops. Somehow, Sproles slipped through the cracks on our QR calculator and was not originally included in this table. And it's not because he played on Monday night, since Ahmad Bradshaw made the list. Regardless, Sproles was by far the most valuable running back of the week. His four carries included a touchdown on second-and-goal from the 19, though that was somewhat offset by a zero-yard gain on third-and-1. As a receiver, though, he was lights-out. Seven catches in seven targets, gains of 57 and 51 yards, two other first downs, and two other successful plays. His lone "failure" was an 8-yard gain on second-and-20.
1 2.
DeMarco Murray DAL
167
1
6
0
48
50
-2
Murray finishes first in DYAR even though he had a fumble. He had four runs for no gain or a loss, but five runs of 10 yards or more, and ten first downs, including a touchdown. He had one catch for 6 yards in two targets.
2 3.
Mark Ingram NO
83
1
21
0
46
43
2
Each of Ingram's 11 carries gained positive yardage and three gained 10 yards or more. He had five first downs, including a touchdown. The Saints threw him four passes, and he caught three of them for 21 yards.
3 4.
Jeremy Hill CIN
74
1
22
0
44
37
7
Hill was the NFL equivalent of a singles hitter, getting on base a lot, but needing help from teammates to score. He only ran for three first downs (including a goal-line touchdown), but each of his 15 carries gained positive yardage, and 11 of them counted as successful plays. He had three receptions for 21 yards in four targets.
4 5.
Ahmad Bradshaw IND
70
0
26
2
42
10
32
5 6.
Le'veon Bell PIT
59
0
48
0
32
14
19
Do running backs even get stuffed anymore? Each of Bell's 11 carries gained positive yardage too, including a 21-yarder, a 16-yarder, and two other first downs. He caught all five of the passes thrown his way for two more first downs.

Least valuable running back
Rk
Player
Team
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Knile Davis KC
79
2
26
0
-45
3
-48
Davis was fine as a rusher, with a 25-yarder, a 19-yarder, and a pair of goal-to-go touchdowns. As a receiver, though, he had six catches in nine targets, and those receptions included a 2-yard loss on first-and-10, a 1-yard gain on first-and-10, a 1-yard gain on second-and-10. He also fumbled on another reception.

Five Six most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
1.
Antonio Gates SD
7
7
96
13.7
3
71
Gates became the first player to score three touchdowns against Seattle since Dwayne Bowe in 2010. He also had three other first downs; he converted three third-and-8s and a second-and-20. His only catch that wasn't a first down was still successful, a 5-yard gain on first-and-10.
2.
Jordy Nelson GB
9
16
209
23.2
1
68
It was not the best week for Quick Reads, as our original version of this somehow managed to omit both the top running back and the top wide receiver from these tables. In addition to the nine catches listed here, Nelson also drew a 27-yard DPI, for nine total first downs. His only reception that didn't pick up a first down was a 4-yard gain on second-and-6, still a successful play.
2. 3.
Sammy Watkins BUF
8
11
117
14.6
1
51
Watkins had five first downs on the day, four of them third-down conversions.
3. 4.
Julian Edelman NE
6
7
83
13.8
1
49
Edelman's six first-down receptions included two third-down conversions. He had one carry, a 9-yard gain on third-and-2.
4. 5.
Andre Roberts WAS
4
5
57
14.2
0
44
On top of the receptions listed here, Roberts also had a 14-yard DPI, for five total first downs. He also gained 19 yards on a first-and-10 run.
5. 6.
Jimmy Graham NO
10
13
118
11.8
2
42
Nine of Graham's receptions resulted in first downs, including three third-down converstions.

Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg/DIV>
TD
Total
DYAR
1.
Mychal Rivera OAK
5
7
31
6.2
0
-32
This is the second time in two weeks that a Raiders receiver finished last in DYAR. Wanna bet it won't be the last? Rivera had a fumble, and if anything he was worse than his numbers here show. He was also the target on an intercepion, and in DYAR, the blame for interceptions in DYAR goes to quarterbacks, not receivers.

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 15 Sep 2014

40 comments, Last at 23 Sep 2014, 2:07pm by

Comments

1
by dbt :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 6:12am

Super curious how Brandon Marshall scored out. I know he was targeted on a bunch of incompletes in the 1st half just like anybody else who was eligible for the Bears, but his final 32 minutes were just amazing.

2
by SFC B :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 6:20am

Did James Jones get dinged for two fumbles?

3
by tue.kjolhede :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 7:02am

How did Darren Sproles score out in total DYAR? He caught 7 of 7 for 157 yards, and had a 19 yard rushing TD on a 2nd and 19.

4
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 7:12am

Will be interesting to see Sproles, agreed.

Also surprising to see continue seeing those plots in hideous Excel.
ugh.

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

5
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 8:18am

Lest anyone cut Cassell any slack, he had open guys to throw to, and time to throw as well, especially in the 2nd quarter, when the outcome was still being contested.

20
by TomC :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 1:39pm

Agreed. I've seen games where Cassell looks like a perfectly serviceable NFL QB, but he was just brutal on Sunday.

Other QB thoughts:

1) I would like to see tape of the HOU-OAK game, because Carr's numbers look much better than I would have expected against that D. Especially if he was also the victim of a bunch of drops (as eggwasp implies a few comments below).

2) Foles is #2? I guess those screens to Sproles & McCoy really help. I watched the whole game and was unimpressed. Much like Cassell, he regularly missed open receivers.

24
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 2:49pm

I thought both qbs stunk in this game. I hate to say this, but this was the first I was actually pinning for PM.

It led to an interesting discussion I had with a friend of mine. Would you rather have 3-4 years of PM or 10 years of a really good but not elite qb, like say Mcnabb or Cutler?

25
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 3:09pm

I'd take McNabb over Cutler any day, because the range of performance is more narrow. No, the highs aren't as brilliant, but the troughs aren't as low, and that makes the rest of the roster, and the game plans, easier to manage.

(edit) To answer your question, however, I'd take the 4 years of nearly certain consistent brilliance, and then take my chances with who I could get for the other 6 years.

26
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 3:26pm

In the Colts' defense, Peyton was coming back from multiple experimental neck surgeries. In hindsight, obviously, that hasn't been an issue, but at the time Luck was very clearly the safer choice.

27
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 3:35pm

Oh, sure, I thought drafting a 22 year old Luck, and letting 36 year old Manning go, was the obvious choice. I would not have said that about a 22 year old RGIII (remember that "debate"?), a 22 year old Blake Bortles, a 22 year old Sam Bradford, etc. Luck was the surest sure thing qb I'd ever seen coming out of college; even more sure than Peyton Manning.

28
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 3:53pm

Yeah I mean I thought it was the right move in hindsight.

29
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 3:59pm

It actually came up when I was thinking about how Bronco fans should feel about Cutler. I think the trade was overall a disaster, but then they did end up with PM so in a strange convoluted way, you can say it worked out. Even if DEN never wins the SB, this has been an incredible run already. Most teams never experience these highs for more than a couple years.

31
by tunesmith :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 5:39pm

The trade got mixed together with some others, so the end result is that Denver gave up Cutler, Brandon Marshall, a fifth rounder, and a fourth rounder.

In return, the Broncos got Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Robert Ayers, Orlando Franklin, and a third-round pick that ended up being a bust.

Tebow is out of the league. Orton, Decker, and Ayers moved on to other teams. What's left is Thomas and Franklin.

32
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 5:50pm

But Manning would not have come to Denver if Cutler was still there.

36
by Bobman :: Wed, 09/17/2014 - 12:28am

Sure he would have. That fleet of Buicks he has is not gonna wash and wax itself and Cutler would have suddenly found himself with a ton of spare time.

6
by big10freak :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 8:31am

Jordy Nelson deserves some extra credit for acrobatics given that crazy catch over the head of the Jets defender.

As always, I figure it must go old after a while posting these summaries but the work is appreciated.

Thanks

7
by eggwasp :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 8:41am

V quietly though, Carr is doing ok - which I think for his first 2 starts - away at Jets and home vs JJ Watt/Cushing etc, is about as good as anyone could have hoped for. The receivers are certainly NOT helping him - aside from James Jones who does at least seem to catch the ball even if he can't hold onto it after hes made a football move (which fortunately doesnt matter in the endzone). Plenty of straightforward drops of accurate passes by the rest of the crew, often with no appreciable coverage. He's making the right decisions most of the time, despite having to play from behind. Sacks - few. Protection - has been fine - again - they've played two good defensive teams. I can see why they signed Vincent Brown. You can't turn this ship around overnight, but quietly, I see some signs of life. Too few to feel ok about the team as a whole, and Carr is no Andrew Luck, but I'm favorably disposed towards Carr right now. Loved the scramble as well - Terrell Who? I'd bet he's got a better future than RGIII.

8
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 9:26am

"Romo only threw three deep passes against Detroit, completing two of them for 40 yards."

That's very impressive, considering he played against Tennessee, not Detroit.

23
by David C :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 2:18pm

Romo's got one hell of an arm.

9
by Babylon :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 10:33am

Jerkass corrections post:
For #12 it should be Brady threw
For #21 Romo played against Tennessee.
For #31 Cassel's DYAR number is missing some digits at the end

10
by PaddyPat :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 10:58am

And Stafford played against Carolina. Moreover, through is used for threw twice. But hey, it was posted nice and early, and that's what counts!

11
by RickD :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 11:00am

I think you got 2/3. Also, the comment for #22 relates to #21, and it shouldn't. So that would be possibly another one.

For Cassel, he's got -164 total DYAR, the sum of -170 passing DYAR and +6 rushing DYAR. That seems correct.

13
by nat :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 11:28am

Methinks you didn't get the Cassel-DYAR joke.

The missing digits he had in mind were several zeroes, I expect. But any digits would have made the point.

12
by RickD :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 11:08am

While we're nitpicking, this is awkward:

Edelman's six first-down receptions included two third-down conversions.

Took me a moment to realize what you meant when you said a first-down reception was a third-down conversion. At first glance, that seems like a contradiction.

14
by dcaslin :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 11:54am

>Joe Flacco: It was quite the streaky game

You guys might want to setup a macro for that...

15
by LyleNM :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 12:45pm

Love the work, but maybe it's time to employ a copy editor?

16
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 1:07pm

Super curious how Brandon Marshall scored out. I know he was targeted on a bunch of incompletes in the 1st half just like anybody else who was eligible for the Bears, but his final 32 minutes were just amazing.

Similar to Cutler. A slow start (three incompletes) and a hot finish (five catches in five targets, and though they only gained 48 yards, that included three TDs, a first down, and a 9-yard gain on second-and-11. On receiving data alone he would have finished in the top five, but got bumped out by Edelman’s and Roberts’ rushing value.

Did James Jones get dinged for two fumbles?

Sadly, our system is not designed for the “two fumbles on one play” phenomenon. So no.

How did Darren Sproles score out in total DYAR? He caught 7 of 7 for 157 yards, and had a 19 yard rushing TD on a 2nd and 19.

Well that’s a mistake. He should have been No. 1. He is now. Not sure how that happened.

All other mistakes (“through” instead of “threw,” and DAL and DET did not play each other this week) have been fixed.

17
by Marcumzilla :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 1:13pm

While we're nitpicking typos, Sproles appears to have not succeeded at banking with his "loan" failure.

18
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 1:16pm

Sigh. Fixed.

19
by Ryan :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 1:39pm

"Do running backs even get stuffed anymore?"

Ask Trent Richardson.

#freeandrewluck

21
by jandrewyang :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 1:57pm

"Brady threw 18 of his 24 passes to the left side of the field"

...but was 15/22 for the day??

22
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 2:07pm

Actually, yes. He threw 24 passes, but two of them were DPIs, which technically do not count as "pass attempts." Will add a note to his comment.

30
by jandrewyang :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 4:10pm

Touche. Thanks for the clarification anyway!

33
by oaktoon :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 8:09pm

Roberts-- 57 yards.. a 14 DPI.. and a 19 yard run-- No TDs for a team that won in a rout...

Nelson-- 209 yards (2nd most in GB history, which goes back a few years, I think)... a 27 yard DPI... an 80 yard TD-- game winning TD when it was tied 24-24.. the third down catch that officially clinched the game when an incompletion gives the Jets a minute and a half to potentially tie it... in a game that his team won by only a TD...

Roberts was the more valuable of the two---- Sure. No Question... And the jaguars are winning the SB. (I know the rebuttal-- because Nelson himself said it-- he dropped three passes. I don't care-- the formula is obviously screwed up big time)

And Rodgers said tonight he gave himself only a 7 (of 10) for accuracy-- which might explain why a couple of targets for Nelson didn't get completed...

34
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 9:00pm

Apologies, everyone. The tables in this week's Quick Reads were full of errors top to bottom, and we somehow managed to miss the top overall running back and the top overall receiver. They've both been added and the lists have been double checked. We're going to put this behind us and try to do better next week.

35
by mehllageman56 :: Tue, 09/16/2014 - 10:03pm

I was assuming opponent adjustments kicked in this week and kicked Jordy Nelson off the list. Because as far as I can tell, the Jets secondary is nonexistent.

37
by DisplacedPackerFan :: Wed, 09/17/2014 - 11:31am

I was actually thinking that being targeted 16 times and only catching 9 passes was enough to drop him off the list in addition to some level of opponent adjustment (that I realize isn't in yet).

38
by Arkaein :: Wed, 09/17/2014 - 11:33am

That's actually quite a relief. I'd rather have players missed due to human error rather than inexplicable DVOA calculations.

It's one thing to a see a RB not on the list because of receiving yardage (or lack thereof). It's a bit more of a stretch to look at a 200 yard receiving day, with no turnovers, and wonder if DVOA really liked the end arounds that a few of the other WRs appeared to have.

39
by TomC :: Wed, 09/17/2014 - 1:31pm

We're going to put this behind us and try to do better next week.

And we're going to concentrate on fundamentals, take it one week at a time, and trust in the Lord, too.

(Affectionate ribbing aside, you guys do a great job, and you shouldn't worry too much about a glitch or two here and there.)