Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

27 Oct 2014

Week 8 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

Tom Brady picked a very bad day to have a very good day. With Charles Tillman on injured reserve and Kyle Fuller sidelined with a hip injury, the Chicago secondary was stretched to its limits, and Brady picked apart the backup Bears without mercy. The Patriots had five possesions in the first half, scoring four touchdowns (all on Brady passes) and a field goal. In the first two quarters, he went 18-of-21 for 203 yards with four touchdowns, 11 other first downs, and no interceptions or sacks. Brady played only three drives in the second half (one punt, one field goal, and another touchdown pass), but he might have done even more damage in that time, going 12-of-14 for another 151 yards. When all was said and done, Brady had thrown 35 passes, completing 86 percent of them for 10.1 yards per pass, with a touchdown every seventh throw. He also gained 13 yards on a defensive pass interference call. And he wasn't just dumping the ball off either, he was moving the sticks. Including the DPI, Brady gained a first down on exactly two-thirds of his dropbacks, nearly double the league-average rate.

Needless to say, Brady's DYAR for the game was stellar. Not only was that the best game to that point in 2014, it was the best game since Drew Brees destroyed Minnesota in Week 15 of 2011, three seasons ago, and on passing DYAR alone, it was one of the 20 best games we've ever measured. And of course, it was the top game of any quarterback this week -- for four hours or so.

About 20 minutes after the Chicago-New England game ended, the Steelers kicked off against Indianapolis. And over the next three-and-a-half hours, Ben Roethlisberger made Tom Brady look more like Teddy Bridgewater. Roethlisberger ripped the Colts to shreds, leaving remnants of their defense scattered across the turf of Heinz Field. Vontae Davis may not be as good as his reputation would suggest (at least not according to FO film analyst Cian Fahey), but he's still the best cornerback on the Colts, and when he left the game in the first quarter with a knee injury, Indianapolis' chances of stopping the Steelers left with him. Roethlisberger's totals were ridiculous (40-of-49, 526 yards, six touchdowns, no interceptions or sacks), but to really get a picture of how thoroughly he ruined the Colts, we need to look at what he did one drive at a time:

Roethlisberger vs. Colts, Drive-By-Drive
Drive
C/A
Y
Drive Result
1 5/5 63 18-yard TD pass to Markus Wheaton
2 5/6 53 5-yard TD pass to Martavis Bryant
3 4/5 81 8-yard TD pass to Antonio Brown
4 4/4 77 47-yard TD pass to Antonio Brown
5 5/7 46 Punt (blocked)
6 6/7 74 2-yard TD pass to Martavis Bryant
7 1/2 4 Punt
8 1/1 20 Lost fumble (Darrius Heyward-Bey)
9 3/5 45 Lost fumble (LeGarrette Blount)*
10 5/7 63 11-yard TD pass to Heath Miller
* Roethlisberger also gained 18 yards on a DPI on this drive.

Pittsburgh would add an 11th drive, a three-runs-and-punt affair when up by 17 in the final minutes. Save for that and a third-quarter three-and-out, there's not a bad Roethlisberger drive to be found. He wasn't quite as efficient as Brady (though 26 first downs in 50 plays is very good), but he was even more explosive, averaging 10.9 yards per play. Even on the drive that ended with Roethlisberger's punt being blocked (and no, the blocked punt does not count against him in DYAR), he completed 71 percent of his throws and averaged 6.6 yards per pass. And since his teammates got butterfingers a couple of times (and since no lead is safe when you're playing Andrew Luck), the Steelers didn't enter kill-the-clock mode until the very end of the game, giving Roethlisberger plenty of time to rack up throws (and DYAR).

Was this the best game a quarterback has ever had? By our methodology, the answer is a definitive, rock-solid "kinda." In the DVOA era (which goes back to 1989), Roethlisberger's game against the Colts was:

  • the best passing DYAR and total DYAR a quarterback has ever had in the regular season;
  • the second-best passing DYAR game a quarterback has ever had if we include the playoffs;
  • and the third-best total DYAR game a quarterback has ever had if we include the playoffs.

And none of that is set in stone. Opponent adjustments can and will change throughout the second half of the season, and depending on what the Colts do from this point forward, Roethlisberger's game could go up or down a few DYAR. Thought the top spot in the "best ever game" chart is probably out of reach, it's quite possible that Roethlisberger could climb to second, or fall to fourth.

Opponent adjustments work both ways, of course, and Roethlisberger's monster day probably tells us as much about the Colts as it does about Big Ben. The Colts defense entered Week 8 ranked ninth overall and second against the pass. After the Wrath of Roethlisberger, those rankings dropped to 21st overall, 18th against the pass. (Brady had a similar effect on Chicago's defense, taking them from 12th overall and 14th against the pass, to 24th overall and 24th against the pass.) Presumably, this game will be the fluke, and the Colts will rise, and elevate the Steelers' quarterback along with them. For now, though, let's just take a moment to appreciate the best of the best. The following table shows the top quarterback games we've ever measured, regular season or playoffs:

GREATEST QB GAMES EVER -- AT LEAST 280 PASSING DYAR or TOTAL DYAR
Player
Team
Week
Year
Def
Total DYAR
Rank
Pass DYAR
Rank
Rush DYAR
Comp
Att
Yds
TD
Int
Sacks
Kurt Warner ARI 18* 2009 GB 385 1 385 1 0 29 33 382 5 0 1
Drew Brees NO 18* 2011 DET 359 2 356 3 4 33 43 466 3 0 2
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 8 2014 IND 355 3 362 2 -6 40 49 526 6 0 0
Trent Green KC 4 2002 MIA 347 4 327 5 20 24 34 328 5 0 0
Peyton Manning IND 18* 2004 DEN 329 5 323 6 6 27 33 457 4 1 1
Randall Cunningham MIN 5 1998 GB 311 6 332 4 -22 20 32 442 4 0 0
Marc Bulger STL 10 2002 SD 309 7 309 8 0 36 47 453 4 0 0
Peyton Manning IND 20* 2009 NYJ 305 8 316 7 -11 26 39 373 3 0 2
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 15 2009 GB 299 9 300 9 -1 29 46 503 3 0 5
Scott Mitchell DET 13 1995 MIN 298 10 298 11 0 30 45 410 4 1 3
Tom Brady NE 11 2007 BUF 298 11 299 10 -1 32 39 373 5 0 0
Drew Brees NO 6 2009 NYG 297 12 294 12 3 23 30 369 4 0 0
Tom Brady NE 6 2009 TEN 294 13 294 13 0 29 34 380 6 0 2
Steve Young SF 17 1991 CHI 292 14 258 x 34 21 32 338 3 0 0
Player
Team
Week
Year
Def
Total DYAR
Rank
Pass DYAR
Rank
Rush DYAR
Comp
Att
Yds
TD
Int
Sacks
Drew Brees NO 15 2011 MIN 291 15 290 14 1 32 40 412 5 0 0
Tom Brady NE 7 2007 MIA 290 16 290 15 0 21 25 354 6 0 1
Mark Rypien WAS 11 1991 ATL 287 17 278 x 10 16 31 442 6 0 0
Aaron Rodgers GB 19* 2010 ATL 287 18 273 x 14 31 36 366 3 0 2
Peyton Manning IND 18* 2003 DEN 284 19 284 18 0 22 26 377 5 0 0
Tom Brady NE 12 2011 PHI 283 20 271 x 13 24 34 361 3 0 1
Drew Brees NO 9 2007 JAC 283 21 282 19 0 35 49 445 3 0 1
Peyton Manning IND 7 2004 JAC 282 22 282 20 0 28 38 372 3 0 1
Rich Gannon OAK 17 2000 CAR 281 23 268 x 13 26 32 230 5 0 0
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 12 2002 KC 280 24 271 x 8 25 35 362 3 0 1
Bobby Hebert ATL 12 1993 DAL 279 25 282 21 -3 24 32 315 3 0 0
Jim Kelly BUF 10 1992 PIT 268 x 285 17 -17 26 33 296 3 0 1
Tom Brady NE 8 2014 CHI 261 x 288 16 -27 30 35 354 5 0 0
* Playoff game

All told, that's a pretty good list of the best quarterbacks of the last quarter-century. Brady makes the five times, Brees and Peyton Manning four each; any reasonable opinion will say those are the best three passers of the last two decades. Roethlisberger is not quite in their tier, but he is the only other quarterback to make the list twice, and also the only quarterback with two 500-yard games. Nobody else is on the list more than once, but it probably wouldn't be surprising to see Aaron Rodgers do it again someday. And then you've got your Hall of Famers (Jim Kelly, Steve Young), your HOF candidate (Kurt Warner), the gunslingers on some of the most loaded offenses in recent history (Mark Rypien, Marc Bulger, Randall Cunningham, Trent Green, Rich Gannon, and Matt Hasselbeck), and your surprises (Bobby Hebert and Scott Mitchell). It is a little weird that there aren't more games from the 1990s on here. No Brett Favre? Or Warren Moon? Or Dan Marino? Or late-vintage Joe Montana? Oh well. Maybe we'll find more big games when we dig deeper into the 1980s.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
1.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
40/49
526
6
0
355
362
-6
Even in the red zone, fewer than one-quarter of all NFL pass plays result in touchdowns. In the red zone Roethlisberger went 7-of-8 for 59 yards with five touchdowns and another first down. Up the middle, he went 11-of-12 for 161 yards and eight first downs.
2.
Tom Brady NE
30/35
354
5
0
261
288
-27
Brady converted each of his first seven third-down opportunities, going 7-of-7 for 121 yards and a touchdown. His eight and final third-down throw was incomplete, but by then the Patriots were ahead by 30 points in the fourth quarter.
3.
Drew Brees NO
27/32
311
3
0
200
197
3
On passes to targets at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, Brees went 7-of-9 for 180 yards with two touchdowns and six other first downs. He also picked up a DPI for 34 yards.
4.
Peyton Manning DEN
25/35
286
3
0
133
133
0
Manning had an awful day on second down, going 5-of-9 for only 23 yards and one first down (though he also picked up 31 yards on a DPI on second down). He more than made up for it, though, on third downs, going 7-of-9 for 88 yards with two touchdowns and four other first downs.
5.
Philip Rivers SD
30/41
252
3
2
78
70
8
Rivers suffered drastically different fortunes on opposite ends of the field. In the red zone, he went 5-of-8 for 25 yards with three touchdowns. Inside his own 20, though, he went 1-of-3 for zero yards with an interception.
6.
Carson Palmer ARI
20/42
329
2
0
69
69
0
How's this for a boom-and-bust day: Palmer's Success Rate of 32.6 percent was worst of any qualifying quarterback this week, but his successful plays averaged 21.9 yards each, better than anyone except Kyle Orton. (Orton, in fact, had a Success Rate of 33.3 percent, second-worst of the week.)
7.
Nick Foles PHI
36/62
411
2
2
64
52
12
Remember, DYAR is a counting stat, and Foles had 62 attempts to pile up value, tying Randall Cunningham's team record. (Any week I get to mention Randall Cunningham twice is a good week.) On Arizona's half of the field, he went 11-of-24 for 117 yards with one touchdown and only five other first downs.
8.
Matt Ryan ATL
20/27
228
2
1
63
60
3
First half: 14-of-17 for 160 yards with two touchdowns and nine other first downs, plus a 20-yard DPI. Second half: 6-of-10 for 68 yards with four first downs, one interception, and two sack-fumbles.
9.
Brian Hoyer CLE
19/28
275
1
0
62
65
-3
Hoyer ripped up the right side of the Oakland defense, going 6-of-8 for 140 yards when throwing to that side. All six of those completions gained at least 10 yards and a first down.
10.
Colt McCoy WAS
25/30
299
0
1
55
52
3
11.
Derek Carr OAK
34/51
328
1
0
46
59
-13
Carr threw a bazillion short, ineffectual passes. With targets within 3 yards of the line of scrimmage, he went 15-of-19 for only 68 yards and one first down (thought that was a 10-yard touchdown to Andre Holmes).
12.
Jay Cutler CHI
20/30
227
3
1
45
42
2
Almost all of Cutler's positive plays came with Chicago facing a big deficit. Not counting plays with the Bears were down by 17 or more, Cutler went 3-of-8 for 11 yards and no first downs.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
13.
Kyle Orton BUF
10/17
238
4
0
42
40
3
What a weird second half for Orton. His seven plays, in order: sack; 14-yard gain on third-and-15; 12-yard gain on third-and-13; sack; incomplete; 12-yard touchdown, 61-yard touchdown. (Buffalo fans should be sure to read the Carson Palmer comment, which was Orton-riffic.)
14.
Andy Dalton CIN
21/28
266
0
1
32
10
22
Despite the absence of A.J. Green, Dalton was best on mid-range and deep passes. When throwing to targets at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, he went 6-of-8 for 162 yards.
15.
Aaron Rodgers GB
28/39
418
1
2
26
9
17
Rodgers isn't exactly known for struggling to finish drives, but inside the New Orleans 40 he went 8-of-15 for 57 yards with only three first downs, two sacks, and an interception.
16.
Matthew Stafford DET
24/44
325
2
1
23
33
-11
Speaking of which: Inside the Atlanta 40, Stafford went 5-of-13 for just 32 yards and three first downs (including one touchdown) and an interception.
17.
Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU
19/35
227
1
0
16
13
2
Houston really shouldn't be passing if they don't have to. On first downs, Fitzpatrick went 3-of-8 for 15 yards with one first down, plus two sacks.
18.
Andrew Luck IND
27/45
400
3
2
2
-5
7
Luck threw to the deep right portion of the field repeatedly, and for good reason -- he went 5-of-8 for 152 yards and all three of his touchdowns to that area, though one of those incompletions was also intercepted.
19.
Mike Glennon TB
19/28
171
1
1
-3
-5
2
Third downs: 3-of-7 for 10 yards for just one first down with two sacks.
20.
Alex Smith KC
25/29
223
0
0
-9
5
-14
Did Andy Reid leave the deep ball in Philadelphia? Smith did not throw a single deep pass against St. Louis. Only one other quarterback has thrown 30 passes in a game without a single deep ball this season: Smith, against Miami in Week 3. Smith's average pass this season has traveled only 5.7 yards past the line of scrimmage, shortest of any quarterback this year.
21.
Zach Mettenberger TEN
27/41
299
2
1
-10
-10
0
Mettenberger padded his stats at the end of the game. He completed each of his last seven passes for 87 total yards and five first downs, including a touchdown, but that all came down by 21 points in the final minutes of the game. When the Titans were within one score, he went 7-of-13 for 62 yards and only two first downs, with one interception.
22.
Ryan Tannehill MIA
16/29
196
1
1
-32
-53
21
Third downs: 2-of-6 for 57 yards, two sacks, only one first down. It took him 28 minutes of game time to pick up a first down. Up to that point he had gone 3-of-8 for 17 yards with two sacks. A lot of teams would have been facing a deficit after a start like that, but, you know. Bortles.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
23.
Teddy Bridgewater MIN
24/41
241
1
0
-35
-38
3
Hey, Minnesota, the short passes aren't working. On throws to receivers within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage, Bridgewater went 9-of-16 for 44 yards and only one first down.
24.
Russell Wilson SEA
20/32
199
1
1
-37
-37
0
Inside the red zone, Wilson went 2-of-6 for 9 yards with no first downs and one interception.
25.
Austin Davis STL
15/25
160
1
1
-62
-57
-5
Davis was sacked seven times. In five straight drives spanning the second and third quarters, he went 2-of-9 for 12 yards with four sacks and no first downs.
26.
Joe Flacco BAL
17/34
195
0
2
-68
-74
6
The most (in)famous play from this game was Steve Smith's game-winning touchdown-that-wasn't, but Flacco had trouble hooking up with his wideouts all day. On passes to wide receivers, Flacco went 9-of-22 for 92 yards with four first downs and two interceptions. No Ravens wide receiver gained a first down after halftime.
27.
Blake Bortles JAC
18/34
221
1
2
-71
-59
-12
Another quarterback who had trouble getting his team into the end zone. Inside the Miami 40, he went 4-of-9 for 20 yards and only one first down. One of those passes did result in a touchdown, but sadly it was a pick-six for Miami.
28.
Cam Newton CAR
12/22
171
0
1
-72
-54
-18
Carolina moved the ball at times against Seattle, but struggled badly to actually score points. Inside the Seattle 40, Newton went 3-of-6 for 31 yards with only one first down, with one interception and one sack.
29.
Tony Romo DAL
18/28
211
1
0
-75
-71
-4
30.
Michael Vick NYJ
18/34
153
0
1
-94
-107
13
Vick was sacked four times, fumbling twice. He had another fumble on a running play, though he did gain 69 yards and four first downs on eight carries. His deepest completion only traveled 11 yards past the line of scrimmage. Deeper than that, he went 0-for-7 with an interception.
31.
Geno Smith NYJ
2/8
5
0
3
-108
-105
-3
Smith's two completions were a 4-yard gain on third-and-10 and a 1-yard gain on first-and-10. That's a zero percent Success Rate. And that's why Michael Vick, as bad as he has played, is New York's starter now.


Five most valuable running backs (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
DeMarco Murray DAL
19
141
0
4/4
82
0
74
56
18
2.
Arian Foster HOU
20
151
2
4/6
22
1
61
47
14
Foster had a 43-yard run, a 34-yard touchdown, and two other 10-yard runs, and only two stuffs.
3.
Mark Ingram NO
24
172
1
1/2
3
0
61
67
-6
Ingram had five runs of 10 yards or more, including a 28-yarder and a 21-yard touchdown. Meanwhile, he was stuffed for no gain or a loss just twice.
4.
Matt Forte CHI
19
114
0
5/9
54
1
58
38
20
Perhaps the only man in a Chicago uniform who had a good game this week, Forte gained positive yardage on all his carries and ran for seven first downs, including four 10-yard runs. As a receiver, he had a 25-yard touchdown and another catch that gained 18 yards. His last four targets: 4-yard catch, 4-yard catch, 4-yard catch, 4-yard DPI.
5.
Jamaal Charles KC
13
73
2
4/4
44
0
48
33
14
Charles was stuffed only one time. He had touchdowns of 36 and 1 yards, and had three other first downs, including a pair of second-and-1 conversions. His biggest catch was a 30-yard gain on third-and-6.


Five most valuable running backs (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Mark Ingram NO
24
172
1
1/2
3
0
61
67
-6
2.
DeMarco Murray DAL
19
141
0
4/4
82
0
74
56
18
3.
Arian Foster HOU
20
151
2
4/6
22
1
61
47
14
4.
Jonathan Stewart CAR
16
79
0
3/5
15
0
38
40
-2
Stewart gets a big boost from opponent adjustments; Seattle entered the week with the league's second-ranked run defense by DVOA. He had five first downs, including gains of 11 and 18 yards. Meanwhile, he only lost yardage once (though that one carry lost 7 yards on third-and-1 in the red zone).
5.
Matt Forte CHI
19
114
0
5/9
54
1
58
38
20


Least valuable running back (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Branden Oliver SD
13
36
0
7/8
27
0
-34
-13
-22
Oliver's first 11 carries produced a total of 10 yards and zero first downs. Then, with San Diego down by multiple scores in the fourth quarter, he ran for two first downs on gains of 3 and 23 yards. He had similar results as a receiver: 22 yards on one catch, no other first downs, and three receptions that lost yardage.


Least valuable running back (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Anthony Dixon BUF
22
44
0
0/0
0
0
-25
-25
0
Dixon never gained more than 5 yards, He was stuffed for no gain or a loss four times. His only first down was on his last carry of the game.


Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
1.
Antonio Brown PIT
10
13
133
13.3
2
76
Brown had touchdowns of 47 and 8 yards. He converted all three of his third-down targets.
2.
Brandon LaFell NE
11
11
124
11.3
1
70
In addition to his 11 catches, LaFell also gained 13 yards on a DPI.
3.
Brandin Cooks NO
6
7
94
15.7
1
68
Four of Cooks' targets came with 3 yards or less to go for a first down. The results: 3-yard gain, 18-yard gain, 50-yard touchdown, 34-yard DPI.
4.
Emmanuel Sanders DEN
9
9
120
13.3
3
68
Sanders' three touchdowns included a pair of goal-line scores, plus a 31-yard gain on third-and-2.
5.
T.Y. Hilton IND
6
10
155
25.8
1
67
Each of Hilton's receptions gained at least 12 yards and a first down.


Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
1.
De'Anthony Thomas KC
4
5
14
3.5
0
-39
Thomas only had one first down, even though his five targets came with an average of 4.8 yards to go. Two of his receptions lost yardage.

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 27 Oct 2014

87 comments, Last at 30 Oct 2014, 4:19pm by commissionerleaf

Comments

1
by theslothook :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 4:02am

This isn't a jab at packer fans, but more in response to a a long thread in the comments of last week's quick reads. Last week, the packers had negative plays but scored tds at the end anyways. This week, the packers had some negative plays in the red zone and kicked field goals because of it. And that is why Dyar doesn't just blindly toss away sacks, incompletions, and other such plays just because the drive ended in a td.

2
by bobrulz :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 4:41am

Noticed a few typos

- Shouldn't this be Week 8 Quick Reads?
- On Zach Mettenberger's line: "He completed each of his last seven passes for 87 total yards and five touchdowns, including a touchdown" - Wow, that's impressive! Five touchdowns!
- It says Emmanuel Sanders only had two scores.

3
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 4:53am

I believe that headline error is the biggest I've ever made. Those have been fixed.

4
by Lyford :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 6:05am

I'm surprise to see Brandon Lafell on the list (not that he didn't have a great day, because he did) and Rob Gronkowski not.

5
by bubqr :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 6:06am

Have not seen any Chiefs game, but is DeAnthony Thomas the new Dexter McCluster?

6
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 6:11am

I don't know whether to be amused or infuriated that Scott Mitchell shows up on an all time great single game list.

12
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 8:31am

Hey, he's number one in the category of "All time performance by a qb who eventually ballooned to 400 pounds, and then went on a prime time weight loss show"!

7
by Otis Taylor89 :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 6:20am

Where is Gronk!?!?

I think by the end of the season we will see the Colts (and the Cowboys) defense being amongs the worst in the NFL.

18
by RickD :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 9:06am

It must be a glitch. Nine receptions in nine targets for 149 yards and 3 TDs?

Maybe he wasn't targeted enough? Is there a 10 target minimum? (Checks) Nope, that's not it.

Looks like an error.

Tracking his catches
1: 1st and goal from the 6. TD!
2: 3rd and 3. 10 yard catch, first down
3: 1st and 10. 16 yard catch, first down
4: 3rd and 18. 21 yard catch, first down
5: 1st and 10. 6 yards
6: 3rd and 14. 17 yards, first down
7: 2nd and 10. 25 yards, first down
8: 2nd and goal from the 2. TD!
9: 3rd and 4 from Chi 46. TD!

Eight of the nine receptions were either for a first down or a TD, including a couple incredibly long 3rd down conversions. I think this is a 100% success rate, with the only question being whether 6 yards is enough on 1st down (I'm pretty sure it is).

15
by Aaron Schatz :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 8:56am

Rob Gronkowski had 89 YAR, by far the most YAR of any wide receiver or tight end this week... which works out to just 63 DYAR. That's how bad Chicago has been against tight ends this year.

19
by RickD :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 9:06am

Ah...that explains it.

35
by Otis Taylor89 :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:57am

Tim Wright was 7 for 7 and now is 17 for 18 on the season with 3 TDs.

If he played the Bears every week we could be talking about a YAR of infinity....

28
by dank067 :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:24am

I'm with you on the Colts defense not being all that great, but they only have a handful of games left (@NYG? NE, @DAL) against good offenses. We'll see how far they drop in DVOA this week but I wouldn't be surprised if they come in at least middle-of-the-pack by the end of the season. But definitely something to think about come playoff time.

56
by turbohappy :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 1:14pm

I've expected the defense to be pretty high-variance. Some weeks stuff working and other weeks not so much. But wow, giving up 0 points one week and 51 the next to teams ranked similarly in DVOA is pretty crazy stuff.

8
by Vandal :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 7:29am

Those ROMO numbers can't be right. Certainly not a good game, but 7.5 ypa and no picks, gets -75 DYAR? Compare his day to Tannehill or Wilson...

10
by BJR :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 8:03am

Just from memory, he was sacked 5 times, mostly on third down, and there was the almost game-losing fumble at the end of regulation (which DYAR just recognises as a fumble, i.e. a very bad play).

I would, however, be interested to see his numbers before and after he got hurt, because he did seem to be having a competent game to that point. On a subjective level, it shouldn't count against Romo if the head coach doesn't have the gumption/authority to order such an obviously incapacitated player to sit.

23
by chemical burn :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:19am

He was definitely awful on third down and especially in short, manageable situations (which come to think of it, I'm not sure if DVOA penalizes extra for failing to convert 3rd and short versus failing to complete 3rd and long...) He only played two series after he got hurt and I think only completed a single pass (which really should have been picked off...)

55
by ChrisS :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 1:14pm

I think it would enhance the article and answer these type of questions if Sacks and Fumbles were added to the grid. Sacks and fumbles are probably the reason Luck's 400 yards is so bad on a DYAR basis.

77
by bobrulz :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 8:12pm

Andrew Luck also had 2 awful interceptions, and another awful safety.

9
by ammek :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 8:03am

This week's top six quarterbacks have all been in the league since 2004 or longer.

When the pages are updated later today, probably 11 of the top 12 quarterbacks by DYAR will be players with more than 100 career starts. Arguably the least experienced of the 11 — the one with the fewest regular season starts — is Aaron Rodgers.

We hear a lot about how it's easy to pass in the modern NFL, but few of the young QBs are managing it consistently. Instead we're watching a golden era for the veterans.

11
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 8:14am

Not bad for a dumb game manager who can't read defense

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

76
by Jerry :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 6:54pm

...or his idiot coaches.

13
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 8:35am

Romo was terrible last night, although his coaches, and maybe his owner, were significant handicaps.

14
by RickD :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 8:53am

I really have to wonder at the coaching. How do you gain 8 yards with a rush on 1st down and then pass, pass, pass to lose the game?

20
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 9:11am

I hardly ever criticize playcalling, it being a category especially prone to confirmation bias, but the exception I'll make is when your offensive line has dominated the opposition defensive front for four quarters, and the idiots getting paid 7 figure salaries don't have enough brains to keep slugging the opponents in the mouth, especially after they were dumb enough to put qb with a significant back injury back in the game, after his backup just led the team on two scoring drives. I suspect the idiot owner played a role in this fiasco as well. Good lord, it must be frustrating to be a Cowboys fan.

22
by Mike B. In Va :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:08am

Watching the game, Romo couldn't even walk off the field correctly - he was hobbling badly. I knew the Cowboys would find a way to self-destruct - it's what they do - but that was simply amazing. It's not like Weeden was sucking, and Washington had no answer for the run. I spent the end of the 4th shaking my head at Romo's ineffectiveness, and then turned it off before the inevitable 'Skins field goal to win it.

How good would this team be with a coach?

26
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:21am

It's unbelievable. You invest three number 1s in the offensive line, and then you don't have enough commitment to use them, despite the fact that they are just blowing people up, series after series. John Madden gets a lot of ridicule for becoming a caricature at the end of his career, but the guy had a much better grasp as to how to win football games than most in his profession, and I can imagine, if he watched that game, being completely dumbfounded. Parcells as well.

32
by dank067 :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:32am

Even when Weeden first came into the game, when it couldn't have been more obvious that the Cowboys were going to run the ball on first down and there were eight defenders in the box, Murray still immediately ripped off 51 yards. I know you can't run into 8-man boxes every play, but they can go one-on-one with anybody in the run game.

36
by usernaim250 :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:00am

Ordinarily, I'd be scared to throw Weeden back out there, but it would have been a good idea. Romo didn't handle the blitz all game.

As for play calling, it reminded me of Jim Zorn's high point as a coach when Garrett as OC handed off just 8 times to a running back (and twice to Owens) in a game that was close the whole way.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200809280dal.htm

67
by Temo :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 5:42pm

Romo was bad even before he got hurt too. He missed badly on some throws and he had no answer for the blitz at all. AFTER he got hurt... it was no contest.

Also, hate to say it, but I told you Romo probably wouldn't make it through the season in one piece. His body is barely hanging in there right now.

70
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 6:08pm

Oh, he was bad from start to end, no doubt, but the coaching was as well. When you are running like they were, and getting blitzed like they were, and you don't see hardly any max protect schemes off of play action, I don't know what the hell 5 or 6 millions dollars worth of coaching was providing last night.

69
by David C :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 5:52pm

It reminds me of the other Washington game where Romo went in for Orton, played worse than him, and nearly lost his team the game because of it.

16
by Kevin from Philly :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 9:01am

Where was Maclin on the list? Did he get docked by the Russian judge for too much splash?

25
by chemical burn :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:21am

Yeah - seems really weird that he at least couldn't push Hilton off the list. And Arizona has a decent pass defense, right? So it isn't opponent adjustments bringing him down...

17
by kaesees :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 9:05am

What does the split look like for Rodgers before and after the hamstring injury?

21
by Guido Merkens :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 9:16am

That all-time QB DYAR table should answer any questions about Peyton Manning's playoff performance (if anybody was still asking those questions...). Three of the top 20 all-time games IN THE PLAYOFFS!

27
by nuk :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:21am

But none of them were the superbowl, so they don't count.
JK

29
by intel_chris :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:25am

I think the PM playoff performance is more criticized by people who emphasize the W/L stats over other metrics. However, I think that is significantly influenced by the "Rock/Paper/Scissors" years when the Colts, Patriots, and Broncos seemed to own each other in a non-transitive relationship. The Colts "always" beat the Broncos and lost to the Patriots (and Chargers). The Patriots "always" beat the Colts and lost to the Broncos. The Broncos "always" beat the Patriots and lost to the Colts. So far PM has "only" won 1 SB although has made the playoffs numerous times, that means that he has had many years where he has "choked" (i.e. lost) in the playoffs at some point.

Moreover, the one-and-done nature of the playoffs tend to emphasize losses, since you are out at that point, and records can only be 0-1, 1-1, 2-1, 3-1, 3-0, and 4-0 (if I calculate that right), with heavy weighting toward the first entries, i.e. only 1 team (QB) per year gets an x-0, and every one else gets an x-1 with more 0-1s than 1-1s and more 1-1s than 2-1s, etc. Given that I think PM's won-loss record in the playoffs is significantly worse than say Tom Brady's. John Elway suffers from the same counting versus Joe Montana (and Steve Young if I recall correctly). Your won-loss record in the playoffs looks bad (under .500) unless you win one or more playoff games each year you are in the playoffs (and you aren't penalized if you don't make the playoffs at all, i.e. from a W/L in the playoffs perspective it is better to not make it, than to make it and lose the initial game).

While being a fan of Both PM and Elway, I realize that W/L records (especially dominant wins) are exceptionally important, and think that the 18-1* Pats are still my "choice" for greatest team of all time, with the Montana/Young 49ers as being the greatest dynasty with the way they won multiple SBs with dominant games. (It was really tough being an AFC fan in those years.)

30
by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:30am

Can anyone explain what drove the rock-paper-scissors thing?

The closest it came to actually happening in any year was 2003, when the Colts crushed the Broncos, and lost to the Patriots in the playoffs. The Patriots barely beat Denver that regular season in the Intentional Safety game.

The following year the Colts again crushed Denver and got crushed by New England.

But the only years Denver beat New England, either they didn't play Indianapolis (2002), or Indianapolis also beat them (2005 and 2006). In those last two years, the Colts and Broncos were a combined 6-0 against the Patriots, but didn't play each other.

To me, the rock-paper-scissors comes down to either one game (the Broncos playing New England tough in 2003), or misaligned timelines, with the Patriots -> Colts -> Broncos coming in '03-'04, and the Broncos -> Patriots part coming into play in '05-'06.

38
by coremill :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:24am

I think the bigger rock/paper/scissors was Colts/Chargers/Patriots in 2005-10. Over that time period, the Chargers were 5-1 against the Colts (2-0 playoffs) but 2-6 against New England (0-2 playoffs), while the Colts were 5-2 against New England (1-0 playoffs).

54
by turbohappy :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 1:13pm

Agreed. Man was I a Pats fan for 3 hours in 2006.

57
by Mike B. In Va :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 1:16pm

We're going to look back on that time in a few years and be amazed at what we got to see. All three of those QBs are going to end up in the HoF (unless Rivers gets skipped because of having no ring.)

When is NFL history have you had three QBs of that quality playing each other in the playoffs practically every year?

58
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 1:26pm

Mid-90s: Young, Aikman, Favre?

The niners could stop Dallas's run game but were too weak at corner to stop Green Bay who couldn't deal with Emmitt Smith.

60
by coremill :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 1:40pm

In the 70s, from Super Bowls VI-XIV you had Staubach/Griese/Bradshaw/Tarkenton (all in the HoF) account for 8/9 championships and 14/18 Super Bowl appearances -- only Ken Stabler broke up their championship run.

In the 1990s, Young, Aikman, and Favre played each other all the time. Dallas and SF played in 92-94, SF and GB played in 95-98, and Dallas and GB played in 93-95. From 1992-97, those three QBs had 9/10 NFCCG appearances and lost only 2 playoff games to teams outside that troika -- Carolina upset Dallas in the 1996 Divisional Round, and Green Bay lost the 1997 Super Bowl to Denver (with HoF QB John Elway).

59
by intel_chris :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 1:39pm

I tried to look up the FO article that introduced the concept. I suspect it was a DVOA or audibles from around that time. However, the search feature isn't working for me (could be my own incompetence).

I do know that it was an evocative meme, whether caused by misaligned timelines or games spanning several years, but as a Broncos fan, we expected to "own" the Pats, but couldn't beat the Colts and watched the Pats beat the Colts "consistently". Moreover, I can remember it, in my mind, being attributed to playing styles, we couldn't win shootouts against PM, but could play tough enough to beat the Pats, who could somehow keep PM in check. Our expectation was that how far we would go in the playoffs in those years was based solely on which order we played which team. If we would end up playing the Colts, we were expecting to be out. If we could get the Chargers or Pats to play them, we had a better chance of being conference champions.

Now, like most memes, expectation can override reality and the actual scores may not have reflected what our memories recall.

BTW, the "intentional safety game" was absolute brilliance and reflected Belichick's [well placed] absolute confidence in his [defensive] players. Up to that point, we Broncos fans had confidence in our team being able to win the game.

24
by dank067 :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:19am

The 2009 Packers finished 4th in pass defense DVOA but appear twice on that list. Ouch. They had a lot of trouble with Favre that year too.

34
by Hummingbird Cyborg :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:47am

The strength of their opponent adjustments had something to do with that.

39
by dank067 :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:25am

Right. That '09-10 Packers defense was pretty good (so long ago now...), but in 2009 specifically they had a lack of depth in the defensive backfield that got badly exposed by those teams with top QBs who could spread them out and pick apart their nickel/dime packages.

31
by Hummingbird Cyborg :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:30am

Five of those top twenty games came in 2009 with two being against GB.

33
by Guest789 :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:46am

Kind of surprised not to see Eddie Lacy anywhere 59 yards on 13 carries and 8 catches for 123 yards. Could you enlighten us, Vince?

51
by BJR :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 12:36pm

The Saints defence sucks?

37
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:15am

"The Patriots had five possesions in the first half, scoring four touchdowns (all on Brady passes) and a field goal. In the first two quarters, he went 18-of-21 for 203 yards with four touchdowns, 11 other first downs, and no interceptions or sacks."

All because of how lazy Cutler is...

40
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:25am

Yes, when the opposing offense scores at will, the fact that Jay Cutler can't be bothered to achieve consistently sound mechanics by the time he is in his mid-30s is rather less significant.

45
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:49am

'Can't' does not always equal 'can't be bothered'.

48
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 12:08pm

If I have to lean towards one of two propositions, that Jay Cutler's athleticism and intelligence precluded him from being a consistently mechanically sound passer, or that Jay Cutler decided to not make it something that was extremely important for him, I guess I'll lean strongly towards the latter. Others may think differently, of course, and we'll never be able to prove it definitively.

52
by Shattenjager :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 12:37pm

If Cutler is in his mid 30s, I really wonder who counts as early 30s . . .

61
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 1:46pm

If Jay becomes mechanically sound by April 29, 2016, I will retract.

62
by Shattenjager :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 1:49pm

Not arguing, Will. I was glad to see him go from Denver for a reason.

But I thought it was funny to imagine that 31 was "mid" 30s. :)

42
by Steve in WI :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:36am

After looking at the disaster that is the team as a whole, including coaches and management, I can honestly say that the only thing that really bothers me about Cutler is that he's going to command $54 million in cap space over the next three years, which is probably more than he's actually worth. Of course, that's Phil Emery's fault if it's anyone's.

Then again, if we're measuring players Emery signed by production vs. what they cost versus the cap, Lamarr Houston's one sack of the season cost more than $5 million. (But hey, the entertainment value of watching the idiot blow out his ACL was included at no charge).

I'm torn between hoping the Bears lose the rest of their games and get a great draft pick, and knowing in my heart that Phil Emery would probably waste it and then spend the next four years justifying the loser he drafts to the media.

43
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:46am

I think that number for Cutler is more about qb salary inflation growing faster than the cap then a particular problem in Chicago, that's just what veteran starting qbs make these days.

49
by Steve in WI :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 12:11pm

That's true, and I was definitely one of the people defending the contract on that basis when it was signed. However, I believe they could have franchised him for a bit less than they're actually paying him this season and then they'd have the flexibility to go in another direction after this year if they wanted. As is, he is virtually guaranteed to be the Bears' QB through the end of 2016, which as far as I'm concerned isn't a disaster, but it does mean that any plans to tear things down and rebuild are probably out of the question.

71
by tuluse :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 6:20pm

What different direction could they go in?

Unless the wheels really come off this year and they have the chance at the first QB in the draft.

81
by Steve in WI :: Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:11pm

I don't know. But the point is that they'd have options. Guys fall in the draft unexpectedly, and maybe there would be someone worth taking the chance on and getting rid of Cutler. (That said, I'm not a big college football guy, so I really don't know what this coming year's QB class looks like.)

It's not that I wanted them to get rid of Cutler; it's just that giving him a contract with 3 years and $54 million guaranteed seems like it was excessive and based on the hope that he would take a big step forward this year. That definitely hasn't happened.

I also don't know what went on between Cutler, his agent, and the team. Maybe the options presented to the team were: sign Cutler to the deal they gave him, or franchise him and know that he's extremely unhappy and won't sign with the team ever again after that. If that's the case, then the deal doesn't look as bad to me. If, however, they could have either negotiated for less time/money guaranteed or franchised him without torpedoing the chance at a future contract, then I don't like how they handled it. I admit I don't know nearly enough about what happened to have any kind of certainty in how I feel.

83
by chemical burn :: Wed, 10/29/2014 - 10:56pm

Doesn't it seem like the wheels are riiiiight on the verge of coming off? This is a team that for the past few weeks has looked ready to collapse. But whatever, for the all the talk about Cutler the defense is the major issue that probably can't be solved in a single draft/offseason...

85
by tuluse :: Thu, 10/30/2014 - 12:36am

I don't think coaches can preemptively assume the wheels will come off. If they do, I don't think they last very long.

47
by dank067 :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:51am

Yeah, while Cutler is overpaid the biggest issue with the Bears roster right now is the lack of depth, everywhere. The only way to solve this issue is to draft a lot of guys and hope that enough of them pan out. Cutler's cap charges in 2015 and 2016 shouldn't get in the way of that whatsoever, and still gives them plenty of room to sign FA pieces here and there at the rate they have been the past two offseasons. I think Emery has handled the cap decently well, if nothing else.

50
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 12:33pm

This....

http://www.spotrac.com/career-earnings/nfl/active/quarterback/

.... is an interesting list. Cutler certainly hasn't been the price/performance disaster that is Vick or Palmer. On the other hand, out of 18 chances to finish in the top half of the league in either DYAR or DVOA, he has done so 5 times, once in Chicago. Now, given the lack of offensive talent that has mostly surrounded him in Chicago, getting into the top half in DYAR would have been very hard. However, given the quality of the defenses and special teams in Chicago, being in the top 16 in DVOA would appear to have been within reach.

The real problem, as you indicate, lies with the current contract.

53
by Arkaein :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 1:00pm

It is mind-boggling that Rodgers is still behind Alex Smith in career earnings, all based on 2/3 of a round of draft position.

63
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 2:09pm

The old draft pay grade was really something else wasn't it? Somewhere, a (I imagine) 350 pound Jamarcus Russell is smiling.....or is he? Do I (mis)remember that he declared bankruptcy?

72
by tuluse :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 6:25pm

And yet his health has been actually been his biggest flaw in Chicago. If he plays every down the last 5 years, the Bears have a 50/50 shot at the Super bowl in 2010 and almost certainly make the playoffs in 2011 and 2012.

74
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 6:32pm

I dunno. He came into the Metrodome in late 2012, with his team in the hunt, in need of a win, and a professional effort by their qb, and I believe their 2nd highest paid player. He engaged in the undisciplined slop that has been part of his play with some frequency. That's really when I began to lose patience with the guy.

75
by tuluse :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 6:40pm

I'm not really defending him. Just pointing out that despite all his problems (which are numerous), health has been the biggest one.

41
by coremill :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:29am

Smith's 25/29 with no turnovers was worth only 5 DYAR? I realize it was all dink-and-dunk stuff, but an 86% completion % is pretty good even if you're dinking and dunking. Are the opponent adjustments killing him that badly (STL is ranked dead last in passing DVOA with 40.9%)?

65
by greybeard :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 2:20pm

Looking at Charles's and Smith's numbers it seems like Smith got the "credit" for the fumble not Charles.

44
by islandbob :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:48am

(sigh) even when it's not about Brady... it's all about Brady. Do y'all have a life-sized poster of him in your bedroom?

46
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:51am

Everyone does don't they? He's holding a little goat in mine because he's a sensitive soul.

80
by bravehoptoad :: Wed, 10/29/2014 - 10:04am

That's my favorite comment in a while.

87
by commissionerleaf :: Thu, 10/30/2014 - 4:19pm

Everyone has a life size poster of Tom Brady in their bedroom. He's holding a little goat in mine because ___________________.

Fill in the blank contest.

73
by anotherpatsfan :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 6:27pm

I guess you must have just read the first paragraph, because IMO this was mostly about Big Ben and historically great QB DYAR performances.

Sorry, shouldn't feed the troll.

64
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 2:17pm

I'm surprise to see Brandon Lafell on the list (not that he didn't have a great day, because he did) and Rob Gronkowski not.

As Aaron mentioned: “Rob Gronkowski had 89 YAR, by far the most YAR of any wide receiver or tight end this week... which works out to just 63 DYAR. That's how bad Chicago has been against tight ends this year.”

Those ROMO numbers can't be right. Certainly not a good game, but 7.5 ypa and no picks, gets -75 DYAR? Compare his day to Tannehill or Wilson...

Somebody else mentioned this, but Romo was sacked five times and fumbled once. So, there you go.

Where was Maclin on the list? Did he get docked by the Russian judge for too much splash?

Sixth, and just missed the list by a few DYAR. He was the target on four incompletions -- which, this week, was a lot.

What does the split look like for Rodgers before and after the hamstring injury?

I don’t know exactly when he was hurt, but:

Q1: 76 DYAR in 10 plays
Q2: 35 DYAR in 9 plays
Q3: -53 DYAR in 11 plays
Q4: -50 DYAR in 12 plays

Kind of surprised not to see Eddie Lacy anywhere 59 yards on 13 carries and 8 catches for 123 yards. Could you enlighten us, Vince?

Sixth. He had negative rushing DYAR. Six of his carries gained 1 yard or less, including failures to convert on fourth-and-1 and first-and-3.

Smith's 25/29 with no turnovers was worth only 5 DYAR? I realize it was all dink-and-dunk stuff, but an 86% completion % is pretty good even if you're dinking and dunking. Are the opponent adjustments killing him that badly (STL is ranked dead last in passing DVOA with 40.9%)?

Opponent adjustments were a big part of it. Only Bridgewater and Stafford were hurt by them more this week. Without opponent adjustments, Smith still would have only been 13th overall. Ten of his 25 completions were considered failed plays. Derek Carr, Zach Mettenberger, and Nick Foles were the only other players with 10 failed completions this week (Carr had 11), and they completed 34, 27, and 36 passes, respectively.

66
by intel_chris :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 4:48pm

10 failed completions! I guess the lesson there is if you dink and dunk, make sure you do it just far enough. I'm presuming the failed metrics are just like DVOA and based on absolute goals per down, e.g. 40% on 1st, 60% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd.

68
by Alternator :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 5:43pm

DVOA isn't absolute, but success rate is.

78
by intel_chris :: Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:42pm

Fair point, I meant success rate (as "in" DVOA) the DVOA adjustments come after the success rate is calculated. I presume the same absolute success rate is used in DYAR also, and then the adjustments are made. Rather than comparing to what a replacement player might do first and judging success relative to that. E.g. if the average replacement QB only throws for an average of 30% of the yards needed on 1st down, that isn't used to say 30% is a successful 1st down (rather than the 40% success rate fixed limit).

79
by Nevic :: Wed, 10/29/2014 - 10:00am

Rodgers got hurt a few plays into his first drive of the 3rd quarter, after driving the team to 1st and goal. 3 plays later came the first of the two tipped interceptions. Clearly DYAR shows a difference pre- and post-injury, but I’m guessing a lot of that is those two interceptions of his receivers’ hands, and not as much is due to him being less effective.

82
by Ezra Johnson :: Wed, 10/29/2014 - 5:37pm

The one off Adams was definitely a bad pass with no chance of being caught, but then there were two sure TDs dropped by Peppers and Quarless. Really changed the game.

84
by Will Allen :: Thu, 10/30/2014 - 12:22am

What could go wrong with a defensive end running slant routes in the end zone? McCarthy was lucky Peppers didn't tip it to a defender.

86
by Nevic :: Thu, 10/30/2014 - 11:47am

The commenters indicated that Adams incorrectly stopped his route (against man coverage, not zone coverage), and thus the pass was good, the route was bad. And it was still random (luck) that the ball got tipped right to a defender.