Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

03 Nov 2014

Week 9 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

Welcome to this week's edition of Quick Reads -- or, as it's quickly becoming known, This Week in Ben Roethlisberger. Seven days after putting up the best single-game DYAR total in our database against Indianapolis, Roethlisberger threw for another 340 yards and a half-dozen more scores against Baltimore, good enough to finish as the league's top quarterback for the second week in a row.

Roethlisberger has now put up 558 total DYAR in his last two games. Is that the best two-game stretch in the DVOA era? The answer to that question is an absolute, definitive "probably." Our data isn't set up in a way to answer that question in one day, but after dinking around with spreadsheets for a few hours on Monday afternoon, I couldn't find a two-game sample that topped it. I found six other examples of quarterbacks topping the 500-DYAR threshold in back-to-back games (I am certain there are others), and it's exactly the names you would think of: Peyton Manning has done it three times (against Jacksonville and Kansas City in 2004; against Washington and Denver in 2006; and against Philadelphia and Dallas last season), Tom Brady twice (an overlapping sample, against Dallas and Miami in 2007, and then Miami and Washington the next week), and Drew Brees once (against San Francisco and Jacksonville in 2007). (A quick aside on Manning's streak in '04: he went 52-of-83 against the Jaguars and Chiefs, averaging better than 10 yards per pass, with eight touchdowns and one interception -- and the Colts lost both games.) Brady's 2007 three-game streak of 783 DYAR is likely the best trio of games on record, and Roethlisberger will probably shatter it if he can throw six touchdowns again in Week 10. His opponent this Sunday: the New York Jets, the team that has given up a league-high 24 touchdowns passes (six more than any other team) with a league-low one interception. I am not a gambling man, but if I were, I can't imagine a point spread high enough to wager against Pittsburgh in this matchup.

But that's in the future. What can we say about Roethlisberger and the Steelers right now? Roethlisberger has accomplished a lot in his career: two Super Bowl rings, one Super Bowl loss, team records in every major passing statistic, a Rookie of the Year award, and a couple of Pro Bowls. However, he has never been a realistic MVP candidate, nor a reasonable choice as the best quarterback in football. He has never finished higher than seventh in DYAR (though he was in the top three in DVOA in 2004, 2005, and 2010). Thanks to his two-game surge, though, Roethlisberger is in the middle of the best year of his career. When our quarterback rankings are unveiled on Tuesday (spoiler!), Roethlisberger is going to sit in second in both categories behind Peyton Manning. Does he have a chance to surpass the Broncos quarterback over the next two months?

(Ed. Note: Actually, after his big MNF game, Andrew Luck will be third in DYAR.)

Roethlisberger's game against the Colts blows away anything that Manning has done this year, but on a consistent basis Manning has been the better player, with a higher DYAR five times in the eight weeks they have both played. Manning has not played a game with negative DYAR this season, but Roethlisberger has two: against Baltimore, of all teams, in Week 2, and then against Cleveland in Week 6. A week-by-week chart comparing the two shows that Manning has been the superior passer for most of the year, but Roethlisberger has made up ground in a hurry:

This chart also shows that Manning has already had a bye, in Week 4, while Roethlisberger hasn't. In Week 12, Roethlisberger will be at home on the couch, while Manning will be playing at home against the Dolphins. That will be a good chance for Manning to widen the gap between himself and Roethlisberger.

That chart also shows that this week's 6-TD, 0-INT game for Roethlisberger was worth much less DYAR than the prior week's 6-TD, 0-INT game. Why is that?

  • Roethlisberger had fewer dropbacks against Baltimore (42, including two DPIs) than he did against Indianapolis (50, including one DPI). DYAR is a counting stat, and fewer dropbacks means fewer chances to pile up numbers.
  • The Colts failed to sack Roethsliberger, but the Ravens brought him down three times (on three straight plays!).
  • Roethlisberger was much less accurate against Baltimore, with 15 fewer completions and three more incompletions.
  • Roethlisberger converted 8-of-11 third- and fourth-down plays against the Colts, but went 7-of-13 against the Ravens. (Of course, four of those seven conversions were touchdowns...)
  • Roethlisberger had six failed completions against Baltimore, three of them failed third-down plays. He had five failed completions against Indianapolis (on 15 more total completions, remember), and only two of them on third downs

All in all, it was the best game of the week, but not even one of the top ten games of the year so far. But if Roethlisberger can match this production for the rest of the year? Yeah, the Steelers will happily take that.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
1.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
25/37
340
6
0
186
196
-10
Roethlisberger went 5-of-8 on deep passes, with every completion going for a touchdown, for a total of 171 yards.
2.
Ryan Tannehill MIA
24/34
288
3
0
148
143
5
Tannehill had 13 passes on his own half of the field against San Diego, but 11 passes in the red zone. That's a lot, but nothing special (Andrew Luck had 13 in Week 5). More telling is that those 11 red-zone plays came on six separate drives. Inside the 20, he went 7-of-11 for 44 yards with two touchdowns and another first down.
3.
Tom Brady NE
34/53
333
4
1
116
117
-1
Brady also reached the red zone on six drives,though he was much more efficient there than Tannehill, going 6-of-8 for 28 yards with one sack and four touchdowns.
4.
Andrew Luck IND
25/46
354
4
0
77
87
-10
5.
Peyton Manning DEN
34/57
438
2
2
71
73
-2
A very good day overall, but Manning uncharacteristically struggled to finish drives. Inside the New England 40, he went 6-of-19 for 96 yards, with two touchdowns and two other first downs, plus one sack and two DPIs for 21 total yards.
6.
Carson Palmer ARI
22/34
252
3
1
58
58
0
The deep ball has been the key to most of Arizona's offensive success this season, but not this week. Palmer threw only four deep balls against Dallas, with just one completion for 27 yards to Ted Ginn.
7.
Alex Smith KC
21/31
199
2
0
50
50
0
Throwing to his tight ends, Smith went 7-of-8 for 91 yards. Six of those completions gained first downs, including a pair of scores. The seventh was a 10-yard gain on second-and-11.
8.
Blake Bortles JAC
22/33
247
2
1
36
47
-11
First half: 8-of-13 for 42 yards and two first downs, with one sack. Second half: 14-of-20 for 205 yards with two touchdowns, ten other first downs, one interception, and one sack.
9.
Michael Vick NYJ
21/28
196
1
0
32
47
-15
Only the New York Jets could turn an erratic highlight machine like Michael Vick into a dink-and-dunk machine. This was Vick's 110th game with at least 10 pass attempts, but only the fourth time he has completed at least 75 percent of his passes, and the 19th time he has been held to less than 10 yards per completion.
10.
Teddy Bridgewater MIN
26/42
268
1
0
27
23
5
On third and fourth downs, Bridgewater went 9-of-11 for 95 yards and a touchdown, though that includes three failed completions. He was also sacked on third down once.
11.
Andy Dalton CIN
19/31
233
2
2
18
14
4
Without Giovani Bernard, the Bengals don't have a good receiving option out of the backfield. Throwing to his running backs (Jeremy Hill, Cedric Peerman, and Rex Burkhead), Dalton went 5-of-8 for 41 yards with one first down and one interception.
12.
Drew Brees NO
24/33
297
1
1
8
4
4
Brees was sacked four times against Carolina (all on first down, oddly), fumbling twice. He threw nine deep passes against the Panthers: one incompletion, one DPI for 32 yards, and seven completions for 143 yards.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
13.
Mike Glennon TB
17/33
260
2
2
5
9
-5
It was feast or famine for Glennon in scoring range. He had a pair of 24-yard touchdowns to Mike Evans, but otherwise inside the Cleveland 40, he went 1-of-8 for 3 yards with an interception and a sack.
14.
Matt Simms NYJ
3/8
39
0
0
1
-2
3
All of Simms' passes came in the fourth quarter. His first two passes both picked up first downs, for 30 total yards. His next pass was a 9-yard gain on first-and-10. His last five passes were all incomplete.
15.
Eli Manning NYG
27/52
359
2
0
0
-10
10
16.
Nick Foles PHI
10/13
124
1
1
-4
1
-5
Short passing did not work for Foles. He threw five passes to targets within 3 yards of the line of scrimmage, completing two of them for 11 yards and no first downs. To targets 4 yards or deeper, though, he went 7-of-8 for 113 yards with a touchdown and five other first downs, though that one incompletion was intercepted and returned for a touchdown.
17.
Mark Sanchez PHI
15/22
202
2
2
-5
0
-5
Sanchez had four completions of 20 yards or more in only three quarters against Houston. He only had four 20-yard gains in a game four times in 2012, his last year as a starter with the Jets.
18.
Joe Flacco BAL
30/44
303
2
1
-20
-24
3
On third and fourth downs, Flacco went 5-of-9 for 49 yards, with nearly as many sacks (three) as first downs (four).
19.
Robert Griffin WAS
18/28
251
1
1
-21
-11
-10
First and third quarters: 10-of-13 for 157 yards with one touchdown, seven other first downs, and four sacks. Second and fourth quarters: 8-of-15 for 94 yards with two first downs, one sack, and one interception.
20.
Russell Wilson SEA
17/35
179
0
0
-28
-36
8
Inside the Oakland 40, Wilson went 4-of-10 for 33 yards and ony one first down, incuding an 0-for-4 performance inside the red zone. On deep passes, he gained 36 yards on one DPI, 20 yards on one completion, and zero yards on nine incompletions.
21.
Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU
13/27
203
2
1
-61
-80
19
Fitzpatrick gained a total of 182 yards on his eight plays that picked up first downs, and a total of zero yards on his 23 plays that did not. He was sacked four times, fumbling once.
22.
Brian Hoyer CLE
21/34
300
2
2
-66
-56
-10
Throwing to his left, Hoyer went 2-of-5 for 6 yards with no first downs and an interception.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
23.
Brandon Weeden DAL
18/33
183
1
2
-70
-60
-11
Throwing to his wide receivers, Weeden went 6-of-20 for 58 yards with one touchdown (which came with Dallas down by 18 in the final minutes of the game), three other first downs, and one interception, plus a 17-yard DPI.
24.
Derek Carr OAK
24/40
194
2
2
-78
-83
5
Throwing to his wide receivers, Carr went 8-of-16 for 74 yards with three first downs and two interceptions, including a pick-six.
25.
Austin Davis STL
13/24
105
1
2
-84
-87
3
On first downs, Davis went 2-of-6 for 24 yards with one first down and two interceptions.
26.
Philip Rivers SD
12/23
138
0
3
-115
-109
-6
In the first quarter, Rivers had a 14-yard gain from the Miami 45, an incomplete pass on second down, and then a 16-yard gain on third-and-17. Those were his only plays on Miami's side of the field all day.
27.
Colin Kaepernick SF
22/33
237
1
0
-137
-112
-26
Kaepernick was sacked eight times (five times in the second quarter alone), fumbling once. He also fumbled in the third quarter on an aborted snap, and as you might have heard, he fumbled on his only rushing attempt at the end of the game.
28.
Cam Newton CAR
10/28
151
0
1
-139
-153
14
Almost all of Newton's success came on first down. On second and third downs, he went 4-of-17 for 34 yards with one first down, one interception, and three sacks, plus an 11-yard DPI.


Five most valuable running backs (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Jeremy Hill CIN
24
154
2
1/1
9
0
61
55
6
Hill had five 10-yard runs against Jacksonville, the longest a 60-yarder. Counting his two scores, he had 10 first downs on the ground, including six straight carries in the third quarter. Meanwhile, he lost yards only twice.
2.
Marshawn Lynch SEA
21
67
2
5/5
76
0
53
22
31
Slow and steady against Oakland for Lynch, whose longest run was just 11 yards. He was stuffed for no gain or a loss three times, but he had five first downs on the day, 11 of his carries gained 3 yards or more. He also led Seattle in catches and receiving yards, with three 10-plus-yard gains, capped off by a 39-yarder, and also had a 7-yard catch on third-and-5.
3.
Matt Asiata MIN
10
26
3
4/5
31
0
42
30
12
Asaiata's three scores were his only first downs of the day, and his longest run was only 7 yards. His best reception was a 10-yard gain to convert a third-and-10.
4.
Chris Polk PHI
8
50
1
0/0
0
0
40
40
0
Each of Polk's carries was a successful play, with five first downs, including a 22-yarder.
5.
Lance Dunbar DAL
3
9
0
2/2
52
0
36
3
33
In limited action, Dunbar had a 40-yard catch on third-and-10 and a 12-yard catch on first-and-10, and he ran for a first down on third-and-2.


Five most valuable running backs (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Jeremy Hill CIN
24
154
2
1/1
9
0
61
55
6
2.
Chris Polk PHI
8
50
1
0/0
0
0
40
40
0
3.
Matt Asiata MIN
10
26
3
4/5
31
0
42
30
12
4.
Jamaal Charles KC
20
78
1
2/4
10
0
7
23
-16
Charles had as many 10-yard runs (two) as stuffs, and he converted three of his four short-yardage runs. His negative receiving value comes mostly from an incomplete pass on third-and-1 and a 2-yard loss on first down.
5.
LeSean McCoy PHI
23
117
0
2/2
6
0
14
23
-9
Twelve of McCoy's runs gained 4 yards or more, including gains of 14 and 26. He gets extra credit for converting on fourth-and-1.


Least valuable running back (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Ben Tate CLE
10
3
0
4/4
29
0
-29
-35
6
Three yards in ten carries works out to 0.3 yards per carry -- or, if you prefer, 10.8 inches per play. In the fourth quarter, Tate had a 4-yard run on first-and-goal from the five. That was his longest run of the day, and his only successful attempt. He was stuffed for a loss four times, including 3-yard losses on second-and-1 and second-and-5. This was the worst rushing DYAR any player has had since Week 3.He did gain two first downs as a receiver, but he also lost 2 yards on second-and-14.


Least valuable running back (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
1.
Ben Tate CLE
10
3
0
4/4
29
0
-29
-35
6


Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
1.
Jeremy Maclin PHI
6
7
158
26.3
2
75
Six of Maclin's seven targets came on first down. Five of his receptions picked up first downs, including a conversion on third-and-9, plus gains of 52 and 59 yards.
2.
Allen Hurns JAC
7
9
112
16.0
2
67
Hurns' first four targets were all on third down, resulting in two incompletions, two receptions (for 11 total yards) and no first downs. His last five targets: touchdowns of 40 and 18 yards, 4-yard gain to convert a third down, and 28- and 11-yard gains on first-and-10.
3.
Odell Beckham NYG
8
11
156
19.5
0
60
4.
Mike Evans TB
7
11
124
17.7
2
47
Evans had four catches of 24 or more yards. If you're the kind of person who believes receivers should get dinged for interceptions, it's worth noting that Evans was the target on both of Mike Glennon's turnovers.
5.
Anquan Boldin SF
6
7
93
15.5
1
45
Five of Boldin's catches led to first downs. The sixth was an 8-yard gain on second-and-10.


Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
1.
Kelvin Benjamin CAR
2
10
18
9.0
0
-48
Benjamin's most valuable play wasn't even a catch, it was the 11-yard DPI he drew in the third quarter.

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 03 Nov 2014

53 comments, Last at 07 Nov 2014, 11:45am by Mikey Benny

Comments

1
by Duff Soviet Union :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 4:49am

This looks like a pretty stinky week for quarterbacks. 14 Quarterbacks above replacement and 7 at 50DYAR or over both seem very low.

10
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 9:40am

Yeah, I was surprised to see Bridgewater ranked so high.

20
by justanothersteve :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 1:24pm

The QBs with byes this week may have contributed. Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Matt Stafford. Usually at least three of the four have good weeks. (The Bills and Titans also had byes, but I'm not even sure who the QB for those two teams are anymore.)

2
by chemical burn :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 5:00am

The eyeball tests, traditional stats and advanced stats all agree: there was no difference between Foles and Sanchez on Sunday.

3
by JFP :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 8:02am

Need advice. Have Matt Ryan & Big Ben in Fantasy.

Is Ben the better option to start going forward, or go week to week?

I have four weeks to make up some ground. Appreciate the feedback.

11
by Bernie :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 11:28am

I have Matt Ryan as my fantasy QB, and every time I start him, he has a terrible game. I have decided to start him this week. Therefore, I strongly recommend you do the opposite of what I do.

4
by seattle_rain_lover :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 8:34am

Re Ben Tate ineptitude: 0.3 YPC equates to 10.8 inches per carry.

That is all.

26
by Paul R :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 2:42pm

When your ball carrier could post better numbers by simply taking the handoff and falling over, you might need to make some adjustments.

Is there a Defense-Adjusted-Value-Above-Falling-Over metric?

5
by Otis Taylor89 :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 8:51am

No love for Gronk for the 2nd straight week?

6
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 9:00am

Based on a set of assumptions about maximum # of snaps/plays, historical highs of receiver DVOA, etc, is it possible to estimate a hypothetical ceiling for DYAR passing in a game?

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

7
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 9:01am

Also, how about crowdsourcing to get Origin Labs or something else to make plots with. ?

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

8
by RickD :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 9:14am

Matt Asiata shows again that DVOA/DYAR really loves the short-yardage back who can vulture some TDs.

9
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 9:39am

Yeah, the header "Most valuable" in Quick Reads, with regard to running backs and receivers, is pretty deceiving. "Least valuable" as well, really, with receivers, given the least valuable receiver is the guy who doesn't get any targets against less that great defenders, because he can't get open.

12
by PirateFreedom :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 11:36am

it would be difficult to untangle value from the way a guy is covered.
if the best player is drawing the defenses best corner with safety help and his teammates are feasting om the opportunities that creates then I can't say he had a bad game. The QB is just taking what he is given.

15
by dbostedo :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 12:20pm

Or, the flip side, the same guy who can't get open gets a bunch of balls forced to him, and winds up something like 1 for 8 or 2 for 10. He then DOES show up as the least valuable receiver even though it's partly the QBs fault for forcing it to him.

17
by tuluse :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 12:51pm

That doesn't make him a low value player. He is in fact valuable enough that the QB thinks he should be forcing the ball in his direction.

22
by dbostedo :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 1:34pm

Well, it could be that he's that valuable, or that he stinks and the QB doesn't have better options, or that the QB is just making bad decisions despite better options.

But my point really was that regarding the Quick Reads list, the receiver who shows up as the worst player may not have played any worse than many other players, except that the QB tried to get the ball to him - for whatever reason.

23
by tuluse :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 1:52pm

"he stinks and the QB doesn't have better options"

Which means he's still more valuable than his teammates.

28
by ChrisS :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 2:58pm

In this case, Benjamin was bad "ish" but his QB was really awful. Newton looked like he had never thrown an oblong object before. So there is definitely some correlation between worst WR and worst QB. I wonder how often they are the same.

31
by Ezra Johnson :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 3:24pm

Benjamin really needs an Anthony Carter to his Cris Carter.

13
by armchair journe... :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 12:06pm

Was expecting to see Cordarrelle Patterson challenge for least valuable... How many negative DYAR do you get for the hands on helmet?

//AJMQB

14
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 12:08pm

FWIW, the two picks Mike Glennon threw were just godawful throws and it doesn't appear Evans was in the wrong spot; one was an underthrow, one was an overthrow. There are "WR gave up" INTs and then "Man, Mike Glennon sucked" INTs. Glennon also missed Evans on a pair of wide-open TD throws.

16
by herewegobrownie... :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 12:32pm

I don't understand why Haden was on Louis Murphy so much and not Evans/VJax. Skrine and Gilbert were in over their heads so often on those matchups.

18
by BJR :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 1:20pm

Kelvin Benjamin is a talented player alright, but the way Cam Newton forces the ball to him is really to the detriment of that offence. It's almost like he's pissed at the rest of the cast he has been supplied and refuses to utilise them.

19
by Mikey Benny :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 1:22pm

So the important question that would have sounded absurd just 10 days ago: Do I start Big Ben against the Jets or Aaron Rodgers against the Bears?

33
by anotherpatsfan :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 4:22pm

It still sounds a bit absurd. You must have picked Ben way too early with Rodgers already on your squad. Trade him for a stud at some other position.

Rodgers is I am sure licking his chops after watching Pats-Bears film...

53
by Mikey Benny :: Fri, 11/07/2014 - 11:45am

I actually got Ben off the waiver wire. I really have no weaknesses on my team that would make losing the depth at QB worthwhile. I'm playing Ben against the Jets, by the way. Which means the Steelers will get shut out.

21
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 1:27pm

I have a question for Vince if he can help because I'm not sure where I can find the data elsewhere: what's the average distance the niners need on third down and how does this compare to the league average?

I ask because it seems like Kap is very often looking at 3rd and 10++. Some of that is his unwillingness/inability to take the short checkdown on earlier downs and some is him taking unnecessary sacks but the niners have been committing so many penalties that they get way off schedule. The niners used to be a run first team but it's really tough to find consistent success like that when holding calls, false starts and illegal formations are regularly putting you in long yardage downs.

24
by greybeard :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 2:18pm
27
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 2:47pm

That helps a bit, thanks. However, it only shows the top twenty in 3rd and long conversion percentage amongst whom he has the eighth most 3rd and longs, meaning he can't be lower than the 20th most overall. Given that he has the 25th most passing attempts there is at least something to what I'm suggesting.

25
by tballgame :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 2:31pm

To get up to 550 DVOA combined in consecutive weeks, you need to have at least one week with 275 DVOA. Only a dozen or so players have done that for a total of 20ish discrete games (see last week's post). I bet Drew Brees, 2011, weeks 17 and 18 offer the highest DVOA in consecutive weeks before Rothlisberger.

29
by Ezra Johnson :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 3:12pm

It seems that teams are loading the box and daring Hoyer to beat them. Also, the Browns' run blocking just isn't very good. Either way, it's ridiculous to suggest that Tate was really that bad all by himself.

36
by herewegobrownie... :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 5:04pm

They've acknowledged that DVOA/DYAR/etc. have limitations in terms of evaluating effects of teammates on the "value" of receivers and backs, i.e. the same Denver receivers mysteriously got better from 2011 to 2012.

The run blocking dropped off a cliff once Alex Mack went down - they need to find someone else other than Nick McDonald.

30
by DavidL :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 3:13pm

I'm impressed with the Eagles' ability to get their quarterbacks to exactly -5 DYAR.

32
by chemical burn :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 3:38pm

They've got a gameplan and they stick to it.

34
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 4:54pm

Re Ben Tate ineptitude: 0.3 YPC equates to 10.8 inches per carry.
That is all.

AAAAAAGGGGGHHHHH. I looked at that very closely last night, thinking “that does not look right at all,” but I couldn’t find my mistake. Thankfully you did. I was mixing up feet and yards. Anyway, it’s fixed.

No love for Gronk for the 2nd straight week?

He was officially seventh. Really, he was in a cluster of seven guys between 39 and 47 DYAR, any one of whom could have been in fourth place with a slight difference in one play.

Was expecting to see Cordarrelle Patterson challenge for least valuable... How many negative DYAR do you get for the hands on helmet?

Oh, he challenged for least valuable. He was second-to-last behind Benjamin, with one catch for 9 yards in seven targets.

I have a question for Vince if he can help because I'm not sure where I can find the data elsewhere: what's the average distance the niners need on third down and how does this compare to the league average?

There are 34 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass plays this season. Kaepernick’s average yards to go on third-/fourth-down has been 8.2, which is seventh-highest. He has 32 plays with at least 10 yards to go; only Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford have more.

38
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 6:03pm

Thanks Vince. It's also worth noting that Stafford and Ryan have both attempted more than thirty more passes, the niners have to clean up their own mistakes to have any chance this year.

42
by MJK :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 8:56pm

0.3 ypc does NOT equal 10.8 inches per carry. Significant figures, significant figures.

The NFL stats only resolve carries to the nearest yard, and round up on the first yard. A "2 yard carry" could be anywhere from a 1.51 yard carry to a 2.49 yard carry, and a "1 yard carry" could be anything from a 1 inch carry up to a 1.49 yard carry.

10.8 inches per carry implies A TON more accuracy than 0.3 ypc. And given the rounding that occurs, not only is 10.8 inches per carry more accurate than it deserves to be, it's also probably wrong.

43
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 9:09pm

I think you're taking this a little too seriously.

45
by Purds :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 9:54pm

I'm not sure if the "little" was intended as a pun, but it made me laugh!

35
by BSR :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 4:55pm

Which in itself tells us why we can't be slaves to statistics in football. Anytime stats tell us that Gronk isn't one of the most valuable receivers that should tell us that something is off. Even more glaring is when stats tell us that Manning played well, which he clearly did not.

39
by commissionerleaf :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 8:14pm

Manning did play well. His team scored 21 points despite the miscues involved. He threw for 400+ yards and two touchdowns.

Not too shabby!

But the running game was nonexistent and they lost, so of course he was terrible.

40
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 8:20pm

It's really easy to tell if a qb had a great game. Sometimes, it's really easy to tell if a qb had a bad game. Often, however, unless you've charted a game with the All-22, you really can't tell at all if the qb stunk the joint out.

44
by anotherpatsfan :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 9:37pm

I breathed a little sigh of relief when LaFell scored but Manning made me clench up again a minute and a half later. Gronk score was first time I thought Manning wouldn't have enough time to catch up. Haven't rewatched, but he did not seem to be the problem.

37
by Rick_and_Roll :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 5:23pm

Manning's ranking seems inflated. yes he had some good numbers and good throws, but he didn't get it done on 3rd/4th down, which was one of the biggest factors in the game, considering how well Brady was on 3rd/4th.

41
by reiniroosh :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 8:54pm

Colin Kaepernick and Mike Vick: least valuable rushing qbs of the week! Not really a surprise actually. Neither one has done much rushing in a little while; and definitely not enough to offset the extra negative plays they bring.

The list of most valuable rushing QBs is interesting.
At the top is Rodgers and Russel Wilson. That makes sense.
Then Tannenhill, that makes sense as well.

Then we have Jay Cutler - makes sense, but surprising he is so high.

Then McCown Bortles Dalton and Rivers.

Finally it gets to Newton and Kaepernick.

So, there you have it. Rivers and Cutler: better at running the ball than Newton and Kaepernick. :)

46
by Nathan :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 10:25pm

So, what do we all think of Jeremy Maclin? Dude seems to shred the league on a consistent basis.

47
by chemical burn :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 11:09pm

I was just thinking it was weird how little DYAR/DVOA seems to like him - this week's 75 DYAR is more than half of his season total of 145 DYAR. And he's in the #3 WR in the league by yards, nice ypc, no fumbles, tied for #2 in TD's, I'm not sure why he's 20th in DVOA.

I think in the context of the rest of Philly's WR corps, his number look other-worldly and reveal just how well he's played: the other 3 starters (Cooper, Matthews and Huff) all have putrid DVOA with Matthews 53rd in the league and Cooper 65th. Huff's astounding -50% DVOA would make him the very worst WR on the Jaguars. It rates him as one of the ten worst WR's in the entire league to qualify for a DVOA rating - and I don't think DVOA even counts him causing the interception on Sunday! (Also: I knew I hated that guy for a reason.) With the TE's, Brent Celek ranks dead last in both DYAR and DVOA amongst qualifying TE's - and by a very healthy margin.

The guys around him aren't drawing any respect or attention from the defense and most of them would be a downgrade for notoriously WR deficient teams like KC and the Jets. But wait - there's more! There's no running game to bail him out. Even after his most impressive game of the season on Sunday, McCoy is 28th in DYAR and 29th in DVOA out of 36 qualifying backs.He's in the company of guys like Trent Richardson, Ben Tate and Andre Williams. (Not to mention his 34th of 37 RB's DVOA ranking on receptions.) To be fair, Sproles and Ertz have both been very good but with very limited touches while Maclin has been the clear #1 target. Maclin's very respectable numbers put into that context are kinda unreal.

So... maybe what I think about Maclin is that there's an argument to be made he's the most valuable WR in the league...

48
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 11:33pm

I was just thinking it was weird how little DYAR/DVOA seems to like him - this week's 75 DYAR is more than half of his season total of 145 DYAR. And he's in the #3 WR in the league by yards, nice ypc, no fumbles, tied for #2 in TD's, I'm not sure why he's 20th in DVOA.

Catch rate: 54 percent. That is 55th out of 74 qualifying wide receivers.

49
by chemical burn :: Tue, 11/04/2014 - 11:51pm

Fair enough - although, Torrey Smith's is only 46% and his ypc catch is similar and he's ranked 9th in DVOA. He has basically the same DYAR on half as many yards/catches. Same thing with Terrance Williams who has a 59% catch rate (and none of Smith's DPI's - like Maclin he has zero) who is ranked 8th in DVOA. Seems like Maclin's DVOA should come out right around those guys, not well under half as good...

50
by Vincent Verhei :: Wed, 11/05/2014 - 6:05pm

I did some more poking around, and the biggest problem is that Maclin has been dreadful on third/fourth downs. He's top-ten in DYAR on first down and second down, but bottom-ten on third downs.

He has only converted 6-of-17 third-down plays (35 percent, vs. WR average of 44 percent). He has been especially bad in short-yardage, converting 1-of-7 opportunities on third-and-6 or less. (WR average: 54 percent).

That's a small number of very bad plays that are having little effect on his raw numbers, but a big effect on his DYAR/DVOA.

51
by chemical burn :: Wed, 11/05/2014 - 7:20pm

Hm - that's very interesting. And thanks so much for the response! I think this points also to how he's the only real option for the Eagles at WR right now - on third down (especially clear passing downs), he's definitely options 1, 2 and 3. With Cooper, Huff and Celek being bona fide disasters and Matthews maturing slowly, there are few options for the team so it makes sense they're forcing it to him on third and fourth down... If the running game comes back with the o-line's return (and based on last week, that seems possible - and Mathis returns this week, too) I imagine these numbers, especially in short yardage will go up.

52
by Vincent Verhei :: Wed, 11/05/2014 - 7:53pm

It is the kind of small-sample-size stuff that could easily turn around in the second half of the year. Three or four more conversions there would make a huge difference.