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» Week 11 DVOA Ratings

DVOA has finally climbed on board the Wentz Wagon! The Eagles move into the No. 1 spot, but they aren't the only strong, well-balanced team in the NFL this year. New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and the Los Angeles Rams make this one of the best seasons ever for multiple teams over 30% in DVOA, and Minnesota isn't far behind.

30 Nov 2015

Week 12 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

To the surprise of nobody who watched Sunday's game between the Steelers and Seahawks, Russell Wilson was one of the best quarterbacks in Week 12. That will happen when you throw for five touchdowns and average 11.6 yards per pass. With five third-down conversions with 10 or more yards to go, Wilson was like an action hero, always saving the day when all hope seemed lost, like a John McClain or Captain America clad in College Navy and Action Green.

On other occasions, though, Wilson was like Frank Drebin or Condorman, stumbling and pratfalling his way around the field and making the worst out of good situations. Weirdly, Wilson fared much better on third-and-long than he did on shorter third-down throws. On third down with 5 yards or less to go for a first down, he went 1-of-4 for minus-1 yard and (obviously) no conversions. With 6 or more yards to go, he went 7-of-7 for 171 yards, with one sack and six conversions, including touchdowns of 16 and 80 yards.

And as it turns out, this is nothing new for Wilson, who has been very good in third-and-long this year, but has struggled in third-and-short -- or, more accurately, in third-and-medium. Here are Wilson's third-down splits this year, along with a league-wide average for all players:


Russell Wilson Third-Down Passing, 2015

Short (1-3 Yards To Go) Medium (4-6 Yards To Go) Long (7-Plus Yards To Go)

DVOA Yd/Play Suc% DVOA Yd/Play Suc% DVOA Yd/Play Suc%
Russell Wilson 16.6% 7.6 57.7% -55.8% 3.8 29.0% 116.8% 8.0 34.8%
NFL Average -4.4% 5.8 51.9% 2.8% 6.1 44.8% 1.8% 6.1 27.5%

That's very strange. It's not that unusual that Wilson's DVOA in long-yardage situations is so much higher than his middle-distance numbers, because DVOA accounts for down-and-distance. If he was converting, say, one-third of his opportunities regardless of distance, then it only figures that his long-yardage DVOA would be higher, because the average baseline at that distance is lower. DVOA also accounts for turnovers, and while Wilson has one interception and one sack-fumble in medium-range third downs, he has none of either on long-yardage third downs. And we see that most quarterbacks average about the same yards per play regardless of distance to go, so Wilson's 8.0 average gain on third-and-long isn't terribly unusual either -- especially not when you've got plays like his 80-yard touchdown to Doug Baldwin skewing the average.

Put all that aside, though, and just look at those success rates. For the average quarterback, the more yards you need, the less likely you are to pick up a first down. Wilson's success rate, though, goes from high, to low, and then back up in long-yardage scenarios. He has literally been better off in third-and-8 than in third-and-5.

To show you how unusual that is, let's compare that to his peers. The following table shows the third-down splits for each of the 33 quarterbacks with at least 50 third-down dropbacks this season. Players are sorted by success rate on all third downs:


Third-Down Passing, 2015
Name All Third Downs Third-and-Short Third-and-Medium Third-and-Long
DVOA Yd/Play Suc% DVOA Yd/Play Suc% DVOA Yd/Play Suc% DVOA Yd/Play Suc%
13-J.McCown 59.8% 8.7 47.6% 74.9% 10.7 73.9% 35.4% 6.0 40.0% 59.8% 8.9 36.6%
3-C.Palmer 42.6% 7.4 47.3% 41.9% 6.7 56.7% -60.0% 4.3 39.3% 136.7% 9.4 46.3%
7-B.Roethlisberger 41.3% 10.1 45.8% 18.4% 8.4 52.4% 34.0% 11.8 41.7% 97.6% 9.8 44.4%
2-M.Ryan -9.2% 5.7 45.2% -3.9% 6.3 60.0% 10.0% 6.9 54.2% -47.6% 4.2 26.9%
6-J.Cutler 39.6% 7.7 44.4% 26.3% 9.8 54.8% 31.3% 6.7 45.2% 62.1% 7.1 38.2%
8-K.Cousins 22.3% 6.1 44.0% 35.5% 6.4 69.0% 58.6% 7.3 60.0% -32.5% 5.1 23.1%
12-T.Brady 47.1% 6.9 43.5% -12.2% 5.4 43.5% 81.3% 7.3 65.5% 68.7% 7.3 33.3%
9-D.Brees 30.0% 7.3 42.5% 45.4% 7.0 66.7% 31.9% 7.6 52.6% 16.4% 7.3 29.4%
4-D.Carr 41.8% 7.6 42.0% 60.3% 8.0 73.9% -35.3% 6.3 29.4% 102.6% 8.3 37.1%
14-A.Dalton 33.9% 7.8 42.0% 9.3% 7.9 46.2% -1.0% 6.3 51.9% 110.5% 8.5 34.0%
10-E.Manning -11.0% 6.3 41.2% 37.2% 7.8 62.9% -13.8% 6.6 45.2% -60.8% 5.5 28.6%
3-J.Winston -4.1% 6.5 40.7% -58.0% 5.3 43.5% 39.8% 5.5 54.5% 2.5% 7.5 32.8%
7-B.Hoyer 17.7% 5.6 40.5% 27.8% 5.8 63.2% 40.3% 7.3 52.9% -7.4% 4.9 27.1%
14-R.Fitzpatrick 10.2% 6.2 38.9% -0.2% 6.4 50.0% 17.3% 7.8 51.5% 11.1% 5.3 28.3%
17-P.Rivers -11.8% 6.6 38.9% -63.6% 3.3 51.7% 35.1% 7.7 51.6% 5.5% 7.5 28.2%
3-R.Wilson 18.0% 6.6 38.8% 16.6% 7.6 57.7% -55.8% 3.8 29.0% 116.8% 8.0 34.8%
12-A.Luck 10.6% 5.2 38.1% -19.9% 2.1 52.6% 59.7% 4.1 52.6% 6.9% 7.0 26.1%
Name All Third Downs Third-and-Short Third-and-Medium Third-and-Long
DVOA Yd/Play Suc% DVOA Yd/Play Suc% DVOA Yd/Play Suc% DVOA Yd/Play Suc%
16-M.Cassel 14.7% 6.2 36.5% -28.1% 6.2 40.0% 60.4% 6.8 57.1% -35.5% 5.7 19.2%
2-J.Manziel 5.1% 7.0 36.5% 9.2% 5.3 50.0% 75.5% 7.6 57.1% -55.9% 7.1 25.0%
8-M.Mariota -27.5% 5.8 36.4% -127.7% 1.2 22.7% 75.2% 9.5 59.1% -5.5% 6.3 32.7%
5-B.Bortles 8.0% 5.8 36.0% -37.7% 2.9 40.9% 64.0% 8.0 54.8% -0.5% 5.7 27.9%
5-T.Taylor -5.7% 5.1 36.0% -35.6% 0.4 46.2% -26.1% 4.5 37.9% 39.0% 6.7 31.9%
9-M.Stafford -46.5% 5.0 35.2% -10.8% 6.8 62.5% -71.7% 4.6 37.0% -72.2% 4.2 20.6%
1-C.Newton 9.6% 5.8 35.2% 15.3% 5.8 52.4% -38.0% 2.8 35.0% 32.4% 6.8 29.7%
12-A.Rodgers 13.2% 6.2 35.1% -68.8% 3.2 35.0% 52.9% 7.7 46.2% 43.6% 6.6 30.9%
18-P.Manning -30.0% 5.7 34.3% -77.5% 4.9 43.8% -33.2% 4.2 40.0% 3.4% 6.6 29.0%
5-J.Flacco -14.4% 5.3 34.1% 13.4% 5.4 48.3% -40.2% 7.1 44.1% -20.2% 4.4 21.7%
5-T.Bridgewater -7.0% 6.0 33.6% 11.3% 6.9 50.0% -37.8% 3.6 22.2% 4.9% 6.7 33.3%
11-A.Smith -1.9% 5.3 32.1% -20.5% 5.4 41.2% 37.5% 6.5 56.7% -26.1% 4.7 17.7%
7-C.Kaepernick -10.3% 4.7 31.0% 0.1% 6.8 56.0% -39.4% 1.7 23.5% -5.5% 4.6 20.0%
17-R.Tannehill -43.7% 4.6 26.4% 0.3% 7.4 50.0% -18.3% 3.5 33.3% -97.9% 4.5 17.3%
7-S.Bradford -23.6% 3.7 25.0% -52.7% 3.9 35.7% -4.9% 3.1 36.0% -21.2% 4.0 18.0%
5-N.Foles -47.4% 5.3 24.8% -29.9% 6.3 30.8% 32.0% 7.2 39.5% -141.0% 4.0 15.2%
NFL Average 0.0% 6.0 37.1% -4.4% 5.8 51.9% 2.8% 6.1 44.8% 1.8% 6.1 27.5%
Minimum 50 third-down plays.

(For space issues, I am not listing each player's total dropbacks in each distance. Most have at least 13 short-yardage dropbacks; the exceptions are Johnny Manziel, who only has six, and Matt Cassel, who has five. All quarterbacks have at least 14 medium-yardage dropbacks, and at least 26 long-yardage dropbacks.)

Wilson is not the only quarterback who has been more frequently successful in long-yardage third downs than in medium-yardage plays this year. The same goes for two other noted long-ball specialists, Carson Palmer (46.3 percent success rate on third-and-long, 39.3 percent success rate on third-and-medium) and Ben Roethlisberger (44.4 percent/41.7 percent). The biggest differentials, though, go to the sophomore stars of 2015, Derek Carr (37.1 percent/29.4 percent) and especially Teddy Bridgewater (33.3 percent/22.2 percent), though in their cases the numbers reflect third-and-medium struggles more than third-and-long glory.

Only two quarterbacks have had a lower success rate in short-yardage throws than on all third downs, and for one of those the difference is minute. Aaron Rodgers has converted 35.1 percent of all third downs, and 35.0 percent of his short-yardage plays. That's a tiny, tiny difference. The numbers for Marcus Mariota, though, are bonkers. He has converted 36.4 percent of all third downs, which is very close to average. However, he is dead last in short-yardage success rate (22.7 percent), but third-best in medium-yardage success (59.1 percent). In fact, Mariota's short game has been so bad, he's the only quarterback in the league who has actually been better off in third-and-long, where his success rate has been above average (32.7 percent).

Though Mariota's numbers are the most extreme, he is not the only quarterback who has been more successful in medium-yardage than in short-yardage. Other quarterbacks who fit this description include Tom Brady (43.5 percent success rate in short-yardage, 65.5 percent in medium-yardage), Cassel (40.0 percent/57.1 percent, and remember that he has only five short-yardage dropbacks this year), and Alex Smith (41.2 percent/56.7 percent).

Let's wrap this up with a bullet-point look at some of the best and worst players overall, and at each distance:

  • If you read Football Outsiders Almanac 2015, you know we made a lot of jokes at Josh McCown's expense, even when we weren't talking about Cleveland. So pardon us while we take our collective feet out of our mouths and note that McCown's bizarre rags-to-rags-to-rags-to-rags-to-rags-to-rags-to-rags-to-rags-to-rags-to-rags-to-rags-to-riches-to-rags NFL career has now returned to the "riches" department. McCown has been the best third-down quarterback in football this year, leading the NFL in DVOA and success rate on third downs, and averaging 8.7 yards per play, second only to Roethlisberger. That's due in large part to a commanding performance on third-and-short, but he has also been quite good in third-and-long scenarios too. (Note that this was written before the Monday night game, so if McCown throws a bunch of picks on third-and-10 against Baltimore, then never mind.)
  • The rest of the top four in third-down success rate this year: Palmer, Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, and Jay Cutler. Ryan, however, has so many third-down turnovers (nine interceptions and fumbles; only Eli Manning has more) that his DVOA on those plays is negative even though his success rate has been so high.
  • Man, that Eagles-Rams quarterback trade turned into a worst-case scenario for everyone involved, didn't it? Nick Foles has the lowest success rate on third downs this season, and Sam Bradford is next to last. They are followed by Ryan Tannehill, Colin Kaepernick, and Smith.
  • While we're on the subject, let's discuss the dreadful third-and-long performance of one Nicholas Edward Foles. In 66 third-and-long dropbacks this year, Foles has not been sacked (he does have one intentional grounding penalty). That's quite good, especially playing behind the Rams' offensive line. However, of his 65 passes, only 32 have been completed (49.2 percent), for an average gain of 4.2 yards per pass. Only ten of those completions have resulted in first downs, for a total success rate of 15.2 percent. And none of those completions resulted in touchdowns -- at least, not for St. Louis. Five of those passes were intercepted, and two of those resulted in touchdowns for the Rams' opponents.
  • The leaders and trailers in short-yardage success rate are a weird bunch. As noted, you've got McCown at the top of the list, followed by Carr, Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, and Brian Hoyer. Not a list of names anyone expected to see at the top of any quarterback tables this season, that's for sure. At the bottom, the list starts with Mariota, followed by Foles, Rodgers (!?!?!?), Bradford, and Cassel.
  • The best third-and-medium success rate belongs to Brady, which might have you thinking that success in this range is a sign of a top-shelf quarterback ... except that Brady is followed by Cousins, Mariota, Manziel, and Cassel, then Smith, Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, etc. You've got to go all the way to the 11th name on the list, Hoyer, to find anyone who came into the week in the top ten in passing DVOA. The worst success rates here belong to Bridgewater, Kaepernick, Wilson, Carr, and Tannehill.
  • The best success rates on third-and-long go to Palmer and Roethlisberger, who have been two of the best quarterbacks, period, in 2015. There's then a steep dropoff to Cutler, Carr, and McCown. The worst quarterbacks here have been Foles, Tannehill, Smith, Bradford, and Cassel.
  • If any team will benefit from avoiding third-and-longs this year, it's Washington. As noted, Cousins is among the top five players in success rate on both third-and-short and third-and-medium plays. In long-yardage, though, he falls to 25th in success rate, 24th in average gain, and 26th in DVOA.

If you enjoyed this, be sure to check out Scott Kacsmar's ALEX column, which breaks down the nuts and bolts of successful third-down passing every week.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Matthew Stafford DET
27/38
337
5
0
2
252
246
6
PHI
Stafford's raw totals were similar to Wilson's, but the Seahawks quarterback was more explosive (10.3 yards per play, to 8.1 for Stafford). Stafford finishes in first place mostly because he had more plays, and more good plays -- he threw for 22 first downs this week, three more than anyone else. Stafford was nearly unstoppable in shorter-yardage situations. On anything with less than 10 yards to go, he went 17-of-21 for 197 yards with one sack. Sixteen of those completions resulted in first downs, including four scores.
2.
Russell Wilson SEA
22/30
350
5
0
2
180
184
-4
PIT
As you might expect, considering his success in long-yardage scenarios, Wilson was at his best on deeper passes. On throws that traveled at least 8 yards past the line of scrimmage, he went 11-of-13 for 272 yards. Each of those completions resulted in a first down, including all five of his first downs.
3.
Derek Carr OAK
24/37
342
3
0
1
176
192
-15
TEN
Carr was lethal in scoring range. Between the goal line and the Tennessee 33, he went 7-of-9 for 79 yards and six first downs, including three touchdowns.
4.
Andy Dalton CIN
20/27
233
3
1
0
140
139
1
STL
Dalton was at his best throwing up the middle against St. Louis. He went 8-of-9 for 137 yards and six first downs when throwing between the numbers.
5.
Tom Brady NE
23/41
280
3
0
3
125
125
0
DEN
Since Denver's defense has been the best in the league this year, and since Tony Romo and Matt Cassel basically split time against Carolina, Brady didn't just get the biggest boost in opponent adjustments this week, he got more than twice the boost of any other quarterback.
6.
Tyrod Taylor BUF
21/38
291
3
0
1
125
106
19
KC
7.
Alex Smith KC
19/30
255
2
0
1
121
121
0
BUF
We don't think of Alex Smith as a home-run threat, but he was very effective on long passes against Buffalo. On throws that traveled at least 15 yards past the line of scrimmage, he went 5-of-6 for 141 yards and two scores, and a seventh pass resulted in a DPI for 25 more yards.
8.
Matt Hasselbeck IND
26/42
315
2
0
3
110
110
0
TB
Hasselbeck has never been the maddest bomber in the fleet either, and at age 40 you'd think his arm strength would be waning, but he had a lot of success throwing deep against Tampa Bay. (Of course, a lot of quarterbacks have had success throwing deep against Tampa Bay, but still.) He went 6-of-8 for 148 yards, and a ninth deep pass resulted in a DPI for 16 more yards.
9.
Blaine Gabbert SF
25/36
318
1
1
2
108
100
8
ARI
As discussed in the comments thread last week, Gabbert's game against Seattle was probably the best of his career, and this game blew that one away. And yet, even in the best game of his career, he failed to convert a single third down, going 4-of-7 for 33 yards with an interception and two sacks. He did pick up a first down on fourth down, where he went 2-for-2 for 21 yards.
10.
Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ
22/37
277
4
0
1
106
108
-1
MIA
11.
Kirk Cousins WAS
20/29
302
1
0
0
106
107
-1
NYG
As noted in the essay, Cousins has been good on third downs this year, but he wasn't against the Giants, going 6-of-10 for 50 yards and only two conversions. The two conversions came with 2 and 5 yards to go, but he had five other failures to convert with 6 yards or less to go. And two of those completions resulted in gains of 3 and 11 yards with more than 20 yards to go.
12.
Philip Rivers SD
29/43
300
4
0
2
103
94
9
JAC
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
36/55
456
1
2
2
76
85
-9
SEA
Roethlisberger hit a bunch of deep passes against Seattle, with gains of 21, 40, 41, and 69 yards on deep passes, the longest of those going for a touchdown. However, he also threw eight incomplete passes on deep balls, including an interception. Further, all those deep balls came on Pittsburgh's half of the field. Roethlisberger didn't do much past the 50, going 12-of-18 for 84 yards and only four first downs.
14.
Matt Cassel DAL
13/18
93
1
0
1
61
59
2
CAR
All of Cassel's passes came with a deficit of at least 19 points in the fourth quarter, against one of the best defenses in football. Less than ideal.
15.
Jay Cutler CHI
19/31
200
1
0
1
59
54
5
GB
16.
Teddy Bridgewater MIN
20/28
174
0
1
0
46
53
-7
ATL
Bridgewater and the Vikings hurt Atlanta badly with screen passes. On throws to receivers behind the line of scrimmage, Bridgewater went 7-of-7 for 71 yards and three first downs.
17.
Carson Palmer ARI
24/40
271
0
0
1
33
22
11
SF
In addition to the numbers listed here, Palmer drew three DPI calls... for a total of 4 yards. That is not a typo -- all three flags came inside the San Francisco 2-yard line. One came on a first-and-goal at the 1, resulting in a zero-yard penalty and another first-and-goal at the 1.
18.
Ryan Tannehill MIA
33/58
351
3
1
3
33
33
0
NYJ
Tannehill did not convert a third down until Miami was down 21-0 in the final 20 minutes of the game; he did not convert a third down on the Jets' half of the field until Miami was down 35-7 in the final seven minutes of the game. His first seven third-down throws resulted in six incomplete passes and an interception. after that, he went 7-of-9 for 87 yards and six conversions. That includes a pair of fourth-down touchdowns, each coming with Miami trailing by at least 24 points and less than five minutes to play.
19.
Austin Davis CLE
7/10
77
1
0
1
13
9
5
BAL
20.
Brian Hoyer HOU
21/27
205
2
1
1
6
6
0
NO
Hoyer was nearly perfect on short-yardage plays. With 4 yards or less to go for a first down, he went 7-of-7 for 37 yards and six conversions, including two touchdowns.
21.
Cam Newton CAR
16/27
183
0
0
1
0
-1
2
DAL
It's a good thing Carolina's defense scored so often on Thanksgiving, because Newton didn't do much to put points on the scoreboard. On Dallas' half of the field, he went 8-of-17 for only 52 yards and two first downs. Of course, it also says a lot that more than half his pass attempts came on that side of the 50.
22.
Josh McCown CLE
21/38
212
1
0
1
-3
-3
1
BAL
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Jameis Winston TB
20/36
245
1
1
5
-8
-21
14
IND
Winston's deepest completion was his 20-yard touchdown to Cameron Brate, which was caught 18 yards past the line of scrimmage and then run into the end zone. He threw nine passes deeper than that, all to Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. Eight of the nine were incomplete; one was intercepted.
24.
Brock Osweiler DEN
23/42
270
1
1
3
-14
-12
-2
NE
Osweiler had some pretty crazy streaks in this game. His first 12 dropbacks resulted in one first down, a stretch that lasted well into the second quarter and included an interception and a sack. Then he had five first downs in eight straight dropbacks, starting in the second quarter and running into the third. From there he went 11 dropbacks without a first down; three first downs in a row (for 48 total yards); five dropbacks without a conversion, including four straight incompletions; and finally three first downs in his last five dropbacks, including gains of 36 and 39 yards and a go-ahead fourth-quarter touchdown.
25.
Matt Ryan ATL
22/31
230
1
2
2
-30
-30
0
MIN
With less than five minutes left in the game, Ryan was sacked on fourth down, leading to an Adrian Peterson touchdown run and a 20-3 Falcons deficit. Ryan then did some serious stat-padding, completing each of his last seven passes for 79 yards and five of his 15 first downs on the day, including his only touchdown.
26.
Blake Bortles JAC
30/49
329
2
1
2
-37
-26
-11
SD
27.
Drew Brees NO
26/44
228
0
1
2
-39
-39
0
HOU
Brees only threw for 11 first downs in this game, and seven of those came with the Saints down by 18 points in the second half. He had only three third-down conversions, going 7-of-13 for 93 yards.
28.
Mark Sanchez PHI
19/27
199
2
0
6
-46
-49
3
DET
Sanchez had four conversions on third down -- or, one conversion for each third-down sack. In his seven third-down passes, he had six completions for 65 yards and two touchdowns.
29.
Matt Schaub BAL
20/34
232
2
2
0
-49
-40
-9
CLE
30.
Marcus Mariota TEN
17/36
218
3
2
2
-55
-57
2
OAK
31.
Aaron Rodgers GB
22/43
202
1
1
2
-66
-78
12
CHI
Rodgers only completed one pass for a third-down conversion, going 2-of-7 for 8 yards and a sack on third and fourth downs. (He did pick up another third-down conversion on a 20-yard DPI.)
32.
Nick Foles STL
30/46
228
0
3
1
-84
-88
4
CIN
If Foles plays next week and collects minus-51 DYAR or worse, he will pass Peyton Manning as the least valuable quarterback of 2015. He has hit minus-51 DYAR or worse in four of his ten starts this year, and a fifth start hit minus-50.4. In other words, it's a 50-50 bet. Inside the Cincinnati 40, he went 4-of-11 for 37 yards and only two first downs, with an interception.
33.
Tony Romo DAL
11/21
106
0
3
1
-118
-118
0
CAR
Romo's deepest completion was caught only 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Anything deeper than that, he went 0-for-6 with three interceptions, two of them returned for touchdowns.
34.
Eli Manning NYG
26/51
321
2
3
3
-133
-133
0
WAS
You want to know what's really scary? Eli was in the top five in fouth-quarter/overtime DYAR this week. In the final frame, he went 11-of-17 for 169 yards with six first downs, including two touchdowns, plus a sack. Of course, that just means he was a blazing disaster in the first three quarters, when he went 15-of-34 for 152 yards with eight first downs, two sacks, and three interceptions. He was especially rotten on third downs, with as many completions (three) as sacks OR interceptions, going 3-of-11 for 38 yards and only two first downs. To be fair, that does not include his two fourth-down plays: a 28-yard catch-and-run to Will Tye, and a 40-yard touchdown to Rueben Randle.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
C.J. Anderson DEN
15
113
2
4/4
40
0
63
51
12
NE
Anderson's two touchdowns -- a 15-yard score in the fourth quarter and a 48-yard game-winner in overtime -- were worth 38 DYAR between them. He had only three other first downs on the day, and was hit for no gain or a loss three times. His biggest receptions were an 11-yard gain on third-and-8 and a 20-yard gain on second-and-6.
2.
Adrian Peterson MIN
29
158
2
2/4
29
0
62
64
-2
ATL
Peterson had seven 10-plus-yard runs against Atlanta, the longest a 35-yard touchdown, and he had nine total first downs on the day, while getting hit for no gain or a loss just four times.
3.
DeAngelo Williams PIT
8
29
1
7/7
88
0
58
8
49
SEA
Williams' longest carry gained only 7 yards, but seven of his eight runs gained 3 yards or more. Four of his receptions gained at least 13 yards and a first down, each coming with at least 10 yards to go.
4.
Theo Riddick DET
2
6
0
5/5
62
1
53
0
53
PHI
Riddick's two runs were both 3-yard gains on first-and-10. Obviously, his value came as a receiver, where four of his five catches went for first downs, the longest a 23-yarder on second-and-13.
5.
Joique Bell DET
7
25
1
2/3
57
0
50
21
29
PHI
On the ground? Slow and steady -- all seven of his runs gained at least 1 yard, but no more than 9. In the air? Lightning in a bottle -- his receptions included gains of 18, 39, and 48 yards.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Adrian Peterson MIN
29
158
2
2/4
29
0
62
64
-2
ATL
2.
C.J. Anderson DEN
15
113
2
4/4
40
0
63
51
12
NE
3.
Jeremy Hill CIN
16
86
0
1/1
14
0
48
40
8
STL
Hill's longest run was just 15 yards, and he had only four first downs on the day, but 15 of his 16 carries gained at least 2 yards, and nine gained at least 4 yards.
4.
Thomas Rawls SEA
21
81
1
0/1
0
0
27
33
-6
PIT
Ladies and gentlemen, say hello to the NFL's rushing DYAR leader through 12 weeks of the 2015 season. Rawls only had three first downs against Pittsburgh, and he was hit for no gain or a loss three times. But he had a lot of steady gains. Fifteen of his carries gained at least 2 yards, nine gained at least 4, and seven gained at least 6.
5.
Doug Martin TB
14
97
0
1/3
1
0
17
26
-9
IND
Nearly all of Martin's value came from his 56-yard run in the second quarter. He had only three first downs on the day, and was hit for no gain or a loss three times.


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Lamar Miller MIA
5
2
0
3/4
11
0
-37
-14
-24
NYJ
His five runs, in order: 1-yard loss, 2-yard gain on second-and-10, 1-yard gain on first-and-10, no gain, no gain. His four targets: 17-yard gain, incomplete, 7-yard loss, 1-yard gain.


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Chris Johnson ARI
12
17
0
0/0
0
0
-35
-35
0
SF
Johnson's longest run gained only 6 yards, he had but one first down on the day, and he was hit for no gain or a loss 6 times, including four failures to convert with 3 yards or less to go for a first down.


Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Jarvis Landry MIA
13
16
165
12.7
1
80
NYJ
Landry's totals include 77 DYAR receiving and three DYAR rushing for his one carry, a 4-yard gain in the third quarter. Ten of his 13 receptions produced first downs, including gains of 22 and 40 yards.
2.
Markus Wheaton PIT
9
13
201
22.3
1
80
SEA
Wheaton's biggest catches were gains of 21 and 41 yards, plus a 69-yard touchdown. Only three of his catches did not result in first downs: gains of 9, 7, and 7 yards, all on first-and-10.
3.
Seth Roberts OAK
6
7
113
18.8
2
76
TEN
Roberts had touchdowns of 10 and 12 yards, plus gains of 31 and 38 yards. All told, he had five first downs on the day, including three third-down conversions.
4.
Jeremy Maclin KC
9
11
160
17.8
1
70
BUF
Maclin's biggest catch was his 41-yard touchdown, but he als had gains of 32 and 37 yards, and he had six first downs on the day.
5.
Sammy Watkins BUF
6
10
158
26.3
2
62
KC
Each of Watkins' receptions produced a first down, in part because all ten of his targets came at least 11 yards past the line of scrimmage. His four completions were thrown an average of 23.0 yards downfield.


Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Demaryius Thomas DEN
1
13
36
36.0
0
-62
NE
Well, at least his one completion was a good play.

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 30 Nov 2015

73 comments, Last at 03 Dec 2015, 11:35am by jtr

Comments

1
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 6:23am

Hey, good for Blaine Gabbert, he rehabbed himself from a completely useless player to someone you wouldn't mind having as your backup.

6
by Duff Soviet Union :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 7:18am

If Gabbert can keep up this rough level of play, I'd say Kaepernick's career is over. You don't come back from being much worse than Blaine Gabbert.

12
by cstoos :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 9:56am

I always feel bad for quarterbacks that get drafted by teams like Jacksonville. The guy was running for his life his whole career, never able to get used to the speed of the game or develop an understanding of the pocket (which was his biggest issue in college).

I don't expect him to ever be a top 15 starter in the league, but it would be nice to see him have some success after being labeled a bust on the level of JaMarcus Russell.

3
by Oligator83 :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 6:38am

I find it a little weird that Alex Smith has 0 Rushing DYAR:

These are his 6 runs of the day good for 35 yards and 2 3rd down conversion...

2nd Quarter
3-9-KC 30 (:47) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith left end ran ob at KC 40 for 10 yards (53-N.Bradham). 3-10-BUF 44 (:11) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith right end pushed ob at BUF 36 for 8 yards (37-N.Robey).

3rd Quarter
1-10-BUF 19 (11:52) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith left end pushed ob at BUF 15 for 4 yards
2-5-KC 26 (2:30) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith up the middle to KC 29 for 3 yards (20-C.Graham).
3-11-BUF 34 (:26) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith up the middle to BUF 23 for 11 yards (28-R.Darby).

4th Quarter
1-10-BUF 18 (:27) 11-A.Smith kneels to BUF 19 for -1 yards.

7
by Perfundle :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 7:48am

QB runs are graded more harshly than RB runs because QB runs are more successful on average. Also, Buffalo has a horrible run defense; opposing QBs have picked up first downs on 47.6% of non-kneeldown rushing attempts.

2
by Snoth :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 6:38am

I know people are talking about all of the injuries the Pats have on offense and now defense. But what's up with Blount? His formula of ramming threw the line of scrimmage and breaking off a big run just hasn't been there this year, it seems like every time blount runs the ball he hits the LOS hesitates then falls down for 2 yards. It doesn't fare well for your offense when brandon Bolden is your best receiver/deep threat/running back and one also one of your best ST players

Also I won 5 dollars Sunday because of Blain gabberts montana like career resurgance.

13
by cstoos :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 10:01am

I think Blount this season has been more affected by the Pats play calling than his ability. Against the Jets in week 7 Brady had 54 pass attempts AND had more rushing attempts (4) than Blount (3).

Similar this weekend, at 42 pass attempts and 9 rushes for Blount. He is a bigger guy that wears teams down a bit and generally performs better with more carries. The Pats aren't willing to do that for the most part.

51
by Bernie :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 2:14pm

In fairness though, Blount is only really a great running back when he plays the Colts. Against everyone else he is just average to good.

52
by Ben :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 2:26pm

Though, that can also be said about virtually every Patriots running back of the last several years.

4
by ammek :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 6:49am

I do find the third-down numbers interesting, yes. Amazing to see that Brady, Rodgers, Manning and Rivers are all doing so badly on third-and-short this year. I assume 2015 is a blip in all four cases.

It beggars belief that there was a receiver worse than Davante Adams this week. In recent weeks we've seen a handful of these statlines where a WR is targeted a lot and catches a very small percentage of those passes. Apparently Demariyus Thomas is only the second receiver to have as many as 13 targets, and to catch just one of them (Tony Martin, SD vs TB in 1996). The list of players who've had more than 10 targets and caught fewer than one-quarter of them is full of deep threats in games where their team played from behind (Yatil Green, Chris Chambers, Travis Taylor), and aging receivers on bad teams, plus some players I have literally no recollection of (Stephen Baker? Chris Calloway? Bryan Gilmore?). In other words, a lot of Giants and Dolphins. It doesn't seem to be a trend, though. The games by Thomas and Adams are unusual, although from recent seasons Dez Bryant and Larry Fitzgerald are high on the list, suggesting that some teams' strategy when they're losing is 'Keep throwing it to our only half-decent receiver, even if he's triple covered'. Not sure how Davante Adams fits into that picture, though.

19
by Hang50 :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 11:42am

It was painful to watch DT implode on Sunday night.

I don't think it was anything that Osweiler was doing. He wasn't throwing with unusual velocity. (No one will compare his throws with those of Denver's current GM, which threatened to crush the bones in a receiver's hands.) Osweiler's accuracy was sometimes suspect, but not consistently bad.

Nor did Thomas look injured. He doesn't run the tightest routes, but he was getting separation often enough.

The problem had to be of the mental variety. My theory is that DT's attention was captured and kept in a different ZIP code until regulation time had expired. (The alternative, that the Spirit of Knoblauch was involved, is too ghastly to consider.)

28
by deus01 :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 12:23pm

I think Thomas had about 3 drops. I think there were also three or four times where he waited for the ball to get to him instead of closing on it which gave the corner time to close and defend the pass.

His problems in this game did seem to be most mental, though I do think that he doesn't consistently play aggressively enough for a receiver of his size.

29
by Ryan :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 12:30pm

Watching him Sunday made me wonder if he was a bit spoiled by Peyton. It just seemed like he's too used to the ball landing exactly where it should and he would not make even the slightest adjustments while the ball was in the air. (Of course, over the last few months of play, he should have gotten used to adjusting to inaccurate passes...) I recall at least two distinct scenarios where his running toward the pass would have resulted in a catch.

31
by Hang50 :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 12:38pm

I was writing my reply while yours posted. I was also tempted to use the word "spoiled."

35
by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 12:49pm

If he was so spoiled by Peyton, maybe they should play him when he gets healthy ;)

37
by Ryan :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 1:02pm

I am shamelessly desperate for some type of Willis Reed moment for Peyton.

30
by Hang50 :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 12:37pm

Collinsworth called attention to at least one play in which Thomas turned and waited for the ball, allowing the DB to defend as you noted. I don't disagree with your assessment that he could play more aggressively.

I do wonder, however, if he's still running routes expecting Manning's timing on curls and outs. I hope Osweiler will learn to throw to his receivers as they cut, but his timing has been average-to-late so far.

32
by deus01 :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 12:41pm

That's a good point, maybe he was expecting the ball to already be there when he turned which is why he wasn't prepared to close on it.

I have noticed that he sometimes lacks aggressiveness in games with Manning (and in previous seasons).

21
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 11:54am

repeat post

5
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 7:00am

Not to defend Chip Kelly, but should we give him credit for getting one amazing season and one mediocre season out of Nick Foles, given what Foles looks like now? Or was that just random variance (like Matt Flynn 2011 week 17)?

14
by bubqr :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 10:38am

He had a solid playbook, a great OL, a very good RB, the element of surprise(playbook + high tempo) and one of the best deep threat in the league to make things worse for those sometimes confused defenses.
On a similar topic, I find the complete disappearance of the zone read in the Eagles offense following Suggs' preseason hit on Bradford a bit of a forgotten element in how this season played out. Especially given what we know about the effect of running QBs on running games, and therefore offenses, overall. That was a key point of this season for the Eagles.

18
by Mike B. In Va :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 11:24am

Yeah, it's really interesting that Philly loses both its major WR threats and a consistently Pro Bowl-level RB that's perfect for their system and the offense takes a nosedive, huh?

I think Kelly is learning the hard way that just plugging in the next guy doesn't work at the NFL level.

Foles was never great. He had a fluky great season, played about at his ceiling last year and now has almost nothing to work with. I don't know that Aaron Rodgers would be a good QB in the Rams' system and with their personnel.

8
by Otis Taylor89 :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 8:05am

So it looks like Blaine Gabbert,Tyrod Taylor and (eyeball test only) Brock Osweiler can play QB in the NFL when given a chance and Nick Foles can not.
Raise your hand if you would have thought that 2 years ago?

9
by Will Allen :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 8:52am

Osweiler's gonna be an interesting guy to watch, at least to me. His height brings good and bad things to the offense. He's the anti-Wilson in terms of vision, but I hate the inevitably larger wind-up such a tall guy has, although Osweiler's obviously been coached to minimize it as much as possible. There's a reason not many guys taller than 6-6 have played the position, and it isn't only simply because not many taller guys get funneled to the position. He seems to have decent mobility and the game doesn't seem to overwhelm him. No matter who comes and goes, it seems the Broncos are always an interesting team to watch.

39
by mehllageman56 :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 1:10pm

I thought the main issue with quarterbacks that tall was footwork, their drop from center being off, etc. Had a conversation in a thread a couple of years ago about this. It seems like Osweiler's footwork is ok, but the Patriots' defense is so banged up they might not be the toughest test for him. He does seem mobile enough, and that's a good sign for him.

46
by Will Allen :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 1:28pm

Oh, they are all issues. I have a particular dislike for big wind-ups, and that dislike has grown over time, as pass rushers have become more and more adept, at slapping at the ball. Going from throwing decision made, to ball out of hand, as quickly as possible, is just extremely valuable, and the inability to do so quickly is a real handicap. Like I said, it certainly appears that Osweiler has worked hard at minimizing this handicap as much as possible, for a guy with his wingspan, but he is likely always going to be below average at getting the ball out quickly once he makes his decision. However, he has pretty decent mobility and maybe he'll obtain good good pocket presence which, in combination with Kubiak's offense lessening the effect of this particular issue, means he never enters Byron Leftwich (who was a real clubfoot, too) territory. It was an issue that really hurt Randall Cunningham from time to time (NFCCG in January 1999, sigh), and he still had some really great seasons.

53
by poplar cove :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 2:48pm

The thing though with Osweiler I think is that he's actually a pretty decent athlete for a guy that tall. Remember he was offered a scholarship to play for Gonzaga in basketball. He doesn't seem as tall as he actually is when he's on the field, if that makes any sense.

10
by Travis :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 9:13am

Inside the red zone, Fitzpatrick went 4-of-7 for 38 yards, with all four completions going for touchdowns. All four of those scoring plays were completed at the 1, with 1 yard after the catch.

Something's wrong with the play-by-play, since the second and fourth touchdowns were clearly caught in the end zone, and the first arguably was. Full highlights here.

11
by jtr :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 9:36am

The opponent adjustment for Pittsburgh D is going to be weird in everyone's DVOA for this season. Since their overall defensive DVOA is around average, there's not going to be much of an adjustment applied to Brady in week 1 or Wilson this week even though the Pittsburgh secondary took those entire weeks off from covering anybody.

36
by dryheat :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 12:50pm

I would think that any value of these tools decreases significantly if the games in which a team didn't play well was removed from the sample. Very Keillor-inspired.

40
by jtr :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 1:13pm

I know FO has demonstrated in the past that DVOA's predictive value doesn't increase by removing particularly good or bad performances. It just seems like Pittsburgh has had two games where they've made things extremely easy for the opposing QB, and there's no way for the opponent adjustment to capture that since they've been about average the rest of the time.

45
by mehllageman56 :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 1:21pm

Perhaps it's a matter of the secondary being properly exploited. Both of those games are on the road, against perennial contenders. The Raiders were also able to put up 35 points, and that was in Pittsburgh. Their best performance was against the Cardinals and Bengals, and both games were at home.

55
by coremill :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 3:15pm

Opponent adjustments are always more misleading when the opponent has higher variance. But Pittsburgh has not been especially high variance, they were ranked #5 in defensive variance before this week.

15
by Ben :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 10:43am

Where did Donte Moncrief end up on the WR list? He didn't have huge numbers but he seemed to be very efficient while watching the game.

16
by andrew :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 10:51am

This is very interesting.

I would like to see the breakdowns on how defenses stack vs the short/medium/long splits as well.... it is probably anecdotal but in years past (pre-Zimmer) with the vikings I felt a lot more comfortable with them defending third and short than I did with them vs third and long.

23
by Xexyz :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 12:04pm

I feel the same way. Perhaps it's just selection bias, but I also remember in the past feeling more comfortable with the defense defending short yardage situations than long yardage ones.

27
by Will Allen :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 12:23pm

Bad is bad, and from 2010-2013, there were a lot of bad players, and poorly coached players with talent, in the Vikings defensive backfield. Guys like Chris Cook, Asher Allen, Jamarca Sanford, Josh Robinson, etc. have no business getting a large number of snaps in an NFL game, if they even belonged in the league. Toss in that they were poorly coached as well (I'll be interested to see if Frazier sticks on Lovie's staff), and, well, you end up with what I still believe is the worst game a NFL defensive backfield has ever played (and I saw every Vikings game in 2000), which was when they made Tim Tebow look like Steve Young in his prime.

17
by nat :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 11:17am

Brady didn't just get the biggest boost in opponent adjustments this week, he got more than twice the boost of any other quarterback.
Okay, I'll bite. What was Brady's YAR without the D?

Make that a permanent request.

Please publish the Total YAR numbers in these tables.

Putting them in the table is an obvious thing to do. You refer to the adjustments almost every week, and almost every week someone asks.

34
by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 12:49pm

Seconded.

Especially for games like Brady that grade out quite a bit better than you (or at least I) would think.

Maybe just give the games affected most either way by opposition adjustments.

42
by nat :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 1:14pm

Brady did have the second best DYAR against the Broncos this year, putting up unadjusted numbers that weren't all that bad (e.g. 99.3 passer rating). It was a good effort. When you consider the injuries and weather, it was a very good effort. DYAR has it about right.

Still, YAR would tell you what he accomplished as opposed to how well he played. Both are useful to know. Having both would be interesting fodder for discussion. It's a little harder to have that discussion when we only have DYAR to work with.

44
by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 1:17pm

I'm probably somewhat underrating his performance, as he had stretches where nothing much happened, and I think they struggled on third down. Three sacks also.

Still, I would like to see how big is the adjustment. In a one-game sample, does it go from ~80 YAR to ~125 DYAR, or is the biggest adjustment just raising an already ~110 YAR to ~125 DYAR.

54
by nat :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 3:07pm

I'd guess it's more like the first, or even more than that. We'll see...

69
by bravehoptoad :: Wed, 12/02/2015 - 11:38am

Thirded. Do I hear a fourthed?

20
by Southern Philly :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 11:47am

"If Foles plays next week and collects minus-51 DYAR or worse, he will pass Peyton Manning as the least valuable quarterback of 2015."

His downside is "literally Peyton Manning" too. Impressive.

22
by Hoodie_Sleeves :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 12:00pm

Blount is a really poor fit for the Patriots offense as currently constructed - one of his primary strengths is that he's patient, follows his blockers, and waits for the hole - that's a really good thing when your team is blocking well, but when they're not, it ends up with a whole lot of nowhere.

If they start blocking better, you'll see him looking a lot more decisive.

25
by Ryan :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 12:11pm

Seems to me the Pats keep Blount in their back pocket until they face a team vulnerable to power running (i.e., Colts), then let him go to town.

41
by mehllageman56 :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 1:14pm

He'll come in handy against the Bengals and Colts. Against most other AFC contenders, not so much.

38
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 1:08pm

I would think the offensive line problems the Patriots are having are an issue; Blount's tenure in Tampa was pretty much him running into his blockers and falling down for two yards a whole lot, and then exploding for some highlight-reel hurdling long run to pad his numbers. He always struck me as a guy who was built like a power back, but ran like a scatback and spent too much time dancing around before getting panicked and running straight forward. He was an incredibly frustrating guy to watch.

50
by dryheat :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 2:11pm

That has been my read on him since Oregon. He's could be a 240 lb punisher, but he has delusions of being a 200 lb slasher. Belichick has knocked that out of him somewhat, but old habits and all that.

65
by ClavisRa :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 11:38pm

Correct. Blount is not a power back, not in the least. He's not quick, either. But he's pretty fast once he gets going, has pretty good vision, and good timing on his cuts to make the first guy miss if he has a little space to work with.

The Pats don't have a power back at the moment, at exactly a time they're reshuffling the receivers. However Amendola should be back this week, and Gronk one of the following two weeks; regardless of exactly when, the Pats are on course for a health o-line and receiving corps come the playoffs, and minimal need for a power back.

24
by Ryan :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 12:09pm

I would love to know how Donte Moncrief ranked this week. He didn't score a touchdown, but I'm pretty sure all 8 of his receptions went for first downs.

26
by ChrisS :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 12:16pm

Stafford is one of two QB's with negative DVOA in all three 3rd down passing situations. Perhaps the Lions should punt on 3rd down. Although given some play calling (as shown in the ALEX columns) on 3rd downs many teams should just punt on 3rd down. The las team I remember doing this somewhat frequently was the Bears with Booby Douglas at QB and with him at QB the fewer passe the better.

43
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 1:14pm

Which is why his not-infrequent appearances at/near the top of the DYAR charts is so frustrating. He's shown he can play at a high level, but he just never seems to sustain it for long. Even his best season (2011) was marred by 4-5 games where he was just awful.

56
by ChrisS :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 5:03pm

To quote Aldous Huxley "Consistency is contrary to nature, contrary to life. The only completely consistent people are dead." But it is nice in starting QB's

33
by Tofino :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 12:48pm

I can't get past the Condorman mention. Back in the day, my brother and I could quote most of the damn movie and nothing replaced it for cheesy cool until Remo Williams came out. Cheers Vince, a triple Istanbul Express for you.

48
by DEW :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 1:57pm

"If you bring the dip, I'll bring the Dostoevsky!"

Seriously, the Condorman reference makes Vince officially my favorite sports journalist ever.

47
by gomer_rs :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 1:54pm

Is the RW DYAR inversion a sign that the Seahawks aren't willing to be aggressive enough on 3rd and short. They could still try for 15 yard gains on 3rd and short and with the D alignment in those situations might be more successful.
_______

I remember when they were the Sea-chickens.

49
by RickD :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 2:01pm

A question regarding the new playoff odds page, where you discuss the two DVOA values for the Colts:

"The rating for Indianapolis is lower when Matt Hasselbeck is expected to start at quarterback instead of Andrew Luck."

But Hasselbeck has been a better QB than Luck this year, by DVOA and by the other stats that I can see you using. How do derive the two different values?

57
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 6:05pm

I find it a little weird that Alex Smith has 0 Rushing DYAR:
These are his 6 runs of the day good for 35 yards and 2 3rd down conversion...
2nd Quarter
3-9-KC 30 (:47) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith left end ran ob at KC 40 for 10 yards (53-N.Bradham).
3-10-BUF 44 (:11) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith right end pushed ob at BUF 36 for 8 yards (37-N.Robey).
3rd Quarter
1-10-BUF 19 (11:52) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith left end pushed ob at BUF 15 for 4 yards
2-5-KC 26 (2:30) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith up the middle to KC 29 for 3 yards (20-C.Graham).
3-11-BUF 34 (:26) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith up the middle to BUF 23 for 11 yards (28-R.Darby).
4th Quarter
1-10-BUF 18 (:27) 11-A.Smith kneels to BUF 19 for -1 yards.

Somebody else mentioned this, but yes, the bar for rushing DYAR for quarterbacks is very high. That 8-yard run on third-and-10? The average QB run on third-and-10 this year has gained 9.2 yards, and 48 percent of them have gained first downs, so that works out as negative DYAR for Smith. Same story for the 4- and 3-yard runs. The average QB this year, at that down and distance would have gained 6.7 and 5.4 yards. So those are also negative DYAR plays.

It beggars belief that there was a receiver worse than Davante Adams this week.

He was second worst. But hey, he had twice as many catches as Thomas.

Something's wrong with the play-by-play, since the second and fourth touchdowns were clearly caught in the end zone, and the first arguably was. Full highlights here.

Whoops! I read the wrong column in the spreadsheet. I'll just erase that comment.

Where did Donte Moncrief end up on the WR list? He didn't have huge numbers but he seemed to be very efficient while watching the game.

Eighth. Yes, all of his receptions produced first downs, but he didn't score and averaged only 14.3 yards per catch -- which is not a ton, for a single game. Plus, Tampa Bay's defense stinks.

Okay, I'll bite. What was Brady's YAR without the D?

Brady had 39 YAR, 125 DYAR.

We do not print YAR because A) We don't want these tables to turn into an illegible wall of numbers, and B) most of the time it's redundant info. The correlation between YAR and DYAR for quarterbacks this week was 0.935. The difference between DYAR and YAR rankings for most quarterbacks is only one or two spots in the tables. Plus, these tables are produced automatically, and it's not the easiest thing in the world to change that code when we're all up to our eyeballs with work. It's easier to mention it in the comments every week for the handful of players who do see massive swings in their numbers — basically, everyone who plays Denver or Carolina at one end, New Orleans on the other.

62
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 7:52pm

Can I ask about Quinton Patton? I read somewhere he had six targets that yielded only one catch and a pick, though that was more a very under thrown ball. That would normally get you the worst receiver of the week prize but Thomas just anti excelled there.

63
by Perfundle :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 8:26pm

If Moncrief is eighth, I'm guessing Doug Baldwin is sixth or seventh? He only had eight targets, but three TDs and another first down against an average pass defense should get him that.

64
by eagle97a :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 9:00pm

I just find it funny that Alex Smith which has a metric named after him for mediocrity when it comes to converting 3rd down passing is also mediocre when it comes to 3rd down rushing for qbs. Obviously sample size issues and I have no idea if Alex has been really good throughout his career when it comes to 3rd down rushing relative to his qb peers but nevertheless still gave me a chuckle.

68
by Oligator83 :: Wed, 12/02/2015 - 1:56am

Thanks to you and also @Perfundle for the answers.

Seeing these really high numbers for QB run 3rd and long conversion made me think that maybe teams should consider designed runs by the QB more often in these situations.

70
by Eddo :: Wed, 12/02/2015 - 12:08pm

I think the idea is that QB runs are more successful on average BECAUSE they aren't designed plays. There are more scrambles and broken plays that go for more yardage.

72
by Oligator83 :: Wed, 12/02/2015 - 9:51pm

Maybe team would be on to something by designing broken pass play for a QB run...

73
by jtr :: Thu, 12/03/2015 - 11:35am

That's basically the QB draw play. I think part of the reason that teams don't seem to draw up intentional scrambles is because scrambling is more effective vs man than zone (eyes on the receivers vs eyes on the QB), so it makes more sense to scramble once you've started the play and seen what the defense is doing. And besides, if you're already planning on having your QB hang out in the pocket for a moment and then take off, you might as well have him spend that moment reading the field since somebody might get open.

58
by Eleutheria :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 6:48pm

"Stafford finishes in first place mostly because he had more plays"
that's not true though. Wilson averaged 5.75 passing DYAR per dropback, Stafford averaged 6.15, that's still quite the large gap.

59
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 6:55pm

Hmm. That's interesting. Wilson actually had the higher DVOA, but there's also the difference between replacement level and average level to consider.

60
by cjfarls :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 7:14pm

My sense is Osweilers' performance against NE was better than reflected here in these middling/poor DYAR ratings. He had 6 receiver drops, and his INT was a ball that popped up when hit as throwing at the line. He takes too many bad sacks and his pocket presence is pretty awful (not good given his lousy oline), but otherwise seems pretty efficient.

61
by Will Allen :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 7:49pm

He has a chance. The tough thing is that, assuming Peyton is done or the Broncos aren't interested, is that Osweiler is a UFA this spring, meaning the Broncos will likely have to make a significant commitment to him on a small body of work, or no doubt some desperate (cough! Browns! Texans! cough!) team will.

Well, if the Broncos decline to do so, after having him in their building for years, that oughta' be a red flag to everybody else, but that's rarely what desperate teams take heed of.

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by ClavisRa :: Tue, 12/01/2015 - 11:44pm

His performance might even be worse, although some of his bad misses on short passes to receivers were likely them not being on the same page. He looked good at the end when he was forced to 'take chances' and just threw the ball to a spot downfield regardless of coverage and let his receiver make the play. Of course, the downside of that is the coverage will win a lot of those too over time.

Brock shouldn't have even had that final possession of the game, nor overtime (thanks refs!). The numbers he would have had minus those are more reflective of his performance.

67
by RickD :: Wed, 12/02/2015 - 1:35am

I wouldn't excuse the INT that easily. It's part of the QB's job to throw the ball in the right direction. Avoiding pressure long enough to get a pass off cleanly is his responsibility. At least partly.

He does have a good strong arm. Even the healthy version of Manning could not make those downfield throws any more. Manning is done.

71
by dmstorm22 :: Wed, 12/02/2015 - 8:16pm

Manning made two throws that deep in his last real game (Indy), the TD to Sanders, and an across the field throw to Daniels.

The throw to DT by Osweiler was essentially underthrown and relied and DT stopping and jumping to catch the ball at its highest point, something Manning did a lot early in the season.