Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

09 Nov 2015

Week 9 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

Nick Foles hasn't been a very good quarterback this year, and he was not very good again on Sunday. He went 19-of-32 against Minnesota, for just 168 yards. That's less than a 60 percent completion rate, and fewer than 10 yards per completion, and he failed to throw for a touchdown. He was sacked just once, though, and had no fumbles or interceptions. So it was surprising when we crunched the numbers Sunday night and found that Foles had been the worst quarterback of the week. It wasn't because of opponent adjustments -- the Vikings have been about average in pass defense this year, and Foles' DYAR actually went up after we took his opponents into account. Basically, Foles was the worst quarterback this week by default -- there were simply no truly terrible quarterbacks this week. If I may badly paraphrase a badly dated reference, Week 9 in 2015 was close to Garrison Keillor's vision of a perfect NFL weekend, a week when (nearly) all the quarterbacks were above average replacement level.

Including his one rushing play (a 2-yard gain on fourth-and-1 in the second quarter), Foles' game against the Vikings works out to -59 total DYAR. And while that was the worst of any quarterback this week, that says a lot more about the caliber of quarterback play this week than it does about Foles. If we take the worst quarterback from each of the first eight weeks of the season, we get a range from -138 DYAR (Ryan Mallett's game against Carolina in Week 2) to -233 DYAR (Foles' miserable game against Green Bay in Week 5), and an average of -170 DYAR. Foles' game against Minnesota, obviously, was much better than any of those.

In fact, we went back and checked the last five years' of data, and Foles this week was the best quarterback to finish at the bottom of the weekly rankings since at least 2010. Foles was just the ninth "worst" quarterback in that timeframe to finish above -100 DYAR, and the first since Mark Sanchez in Week 8 of 2012. The others, in chronological order:

Foles, as good as he was (relatively speaking), didn't even have a lot of competition for the bottom spot this week -- Eli Manning was the only other quarterback to finish below replacement level. Every other regular-season week since 2010 has seen at least five quarterbacks finish with negative DYAR, and on average over the past five years, 11.4 quarterbacks each week have been below zero. The funny thing, though, is that there weren't tons of outstanding quarterbacks this week either. There were only five quarterbacks this week with at least 100 total DYAR. That's not a terribly small amount -- it's more than we saw in Week 4 and Week 5 of this season -- but it is below the weekly average of 6.9 since 2010. Obviously, the fact that six teams were on bye this week had some effect on these numbers. Still, this was the first time since Week 15 in 2013 that more quarterbacks finished with at least 100 DYAR than finished below replacement level.

It's odd that this would be the week with so few bad quarterbacks, because in recent years we have seen more and more quarterbacks finish below replacement level each season. We have also seen fewer especially good quarterbacks (those with at least 100 total DYAR) each year, though that trend is less pronounced.


Bad Quarterbacks On The Rise
Year Bad QBs* Good QBs**
2010 10.2 7.9
2011 9.6 7.8
2012 11.8 6.7
2013 12.6 6.4
2014 12.9 5.8
2015 11.0 6.7
* Average quarterbacks with negative DYAR each week
** Average quarterbacks above 100 DYAR each week

That table suggests that the growing number of sub-replacement quarterbacks is starting to reverse itself, but that's entirely due to the fluky nature of Week 9 -- each of the first eight weeks of the year saw at least 10 quarterbacks finish below replacement level. Obviously, there are still a lot of bad quarterbacks out there. And their numbers are likely to rise this year -- we tend to see more bad quarterbacks later in the year as starters get injured and the weather gets worse:


Quarterbacks By Week, 2010-15
Weeks Bad QBs* Good QBs**
1-4 11.1 8.0
5-9 10.3 5.8
10-13 11.2 7.2
14-17 13.5 6.9
* Average quarterbacks with negative DYAR each week
** Average quarterbacks above 100 DYAR each week

With just two quarterbacks below replacement level, this was the least-bad week in recent memory, but with only five quarterbacks above 100 DYAR, you couldn't say it was the best. That honor would probably go to Week 10 of 2010, when 14 quarterbacks had at least 100 DYAR and only five finished below replacement level. All told, quarterbacks that week completed 61.4 percent of their passes for 7.8 yards per throw, with 56 touchdowns, 22 interceptions, and 54 sacks. (For comparison's sake, quarterbacks this week completed 62.7 percent of their passes for 7.7 yards per throw, with 46 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, and 40 sacks, going into Monday night.) Other strong weeks include Week 3 of 2010 (13 quarterbacks above 100 DYAR, six below replacement) and Week 1 of 2012 (14 quarterbacks above 100 DYAR, eight below replacement).

The worst week in the past five years is obvious: Week 16 of 2013, when twenty-one quarterbacks finished below replacement level and only four amassed 100 DYAR. Across the league, quarterbacks that week completed 59.5 percent of their passes and averaged 6.5 yards per throw, with 35 touchdowns, 36 interceptions, and 85 sacks. Other bad weeks include Week 17 of 2014 (four quarterbacks above 100 DYAR, 18 below replacement) and Week 14 of 2012 (three quarterbacks above 100 DYAR, 16 below replacement).

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Marcus Mariota TEN
28/39
371
4
0
0
176
170
6
NO
Mariota took the biggest hit from opponent adjustments this week and still ends up on top of the pile. Very good things happened for Mariota when he targeted the deeper parts of the New Orleans secondary. On throws that traveled at least 9 yards past the line of scrimmage, he went 9-of-12 for 215 yards, with every completion going for a first down, including a 61-yard touchdown. He actually had a 13th pass at that distance -- it restuled in a DPI for 11 more yards and another first down. He did not have much luck throwing to his right in the first half (2-of-7, 16 yards, only one first down), but picked things up after halftime (5-of-6, 65 yards, four first downs, plus the 11-yard DPI). Mariota also finished up strong -- he was not in the top five quarterbacks this week in the first three quarters of the game, but in the fourth quarter and overtime, he went 15-of-17 for 160 yards and 10 first downs, including the tying touchdown in the fourth quarter and the game-winner in overtime, plus that same DPI.
2.
Drew Brees NO
28/39
387
3
1
4
174
168
6
TEN
For the second week in a row, the Saints' quarterback finishes in the top two -- and so does the Saints' opponent. One of those years for New Orleans. Brees was actually tops in the NFL through three quarters. His 1-yard touchdown to Michael Hoomanawanui put the Saints up 28-20 with about 11 minutes to go, but from that point forward he went 4-of-7 for 52 yards with two sacks and only one first down. Those four completions included a 15-yard gain on third-and-25 and a 13-yard gain on third-and-18.
3.
Andrew Luck IND
21/36
252
2
0
1
167
164
3
DEN
Luck's 3-yard touchdown to Jack Doyle put the Colts up 17-0 midway through the second quarter -- and then he went into a serious deep freeze. On the Colts' next four drives, he went 2-of-9 for 8 yards with no first downs and a sack, and the Broncos rallied to tie the game at 17. And then Luck turned things around, going 9-of-13 for 122 yards with seven first downs as the Colts scored a touchdown and a field goal, then killed the final six minutes of the clock to stop Denver from getting a chance to tie the game.
4.
Cam Newton CAR
15/30
297
3
1
0
135
116
18
GB
Newton only went 3-of-10 on third downs, but all three completions went for big plays: touchdowns of 14 and 39 yards, and a 59-yard gain on third-and-16.
5.
Aaron Rodgers GB
25/48
369
4
1
5
129
130
-1
CAR
Last week, only Andrew Luck got a bigger bump from opponent adjustments than Rodgers did. This week, Rodgers got a bigger bump than anyone, followed by... Andrew Luck. (Yes, the Broncos and Panthers were the opponents for both men in both weeks.)
6.
Andy Dalton CIN
21/27
234
3
0
2
93
115
-22
CLE
Dalton had a big day on third downs, going 8-of-8 for 120 yards with six conversions.
7.
Ryan Tannehill MIA
27/36
309
0
0
2
88
87
1
BUF
The field splits for Tannehill could hardly have been more extreme. On Miami's half of the field, he went 16-of-18 for 199 yards and 11 first downs, plus a 15-yard DPI, and a fumbled snap for a safety. On Buffalo's half of the field, he went 12-of-19 for 119 yards with five first downs, two sacks, one fumble, and a 2-yard DPI.
8.
Teddy Bridgewater MIN
13/21
144
0
1
0
81
60
21
STL
9.
Tom Brady NE
26/39
299
2
1
0
80
80
0
WAS
With 10 or more yards to go for a first down, Brady went 13-of-20 for 105 yards and only three first downs. Anything shorter than that, he went 13-of-19 for 194 yards with 12 first downs, including both touchdowns.
10.
Derek Carr OAK
24/44
307
4
1
0
79
80
-1
PIT
Carr cleaned up in the front zone, the 20-yard stretch outside the red zone. He went 7-of-8 for 135 yards in that part of the field, with six first downs, including touchdowns of 22 and 38 yards. That wasn't a fluke either -- over the course of the season, only Aaron Rodgers has more DYAR in the front zone.
11.
Matt Cassel DAL
25/38
299
3
1
4
69
62
7
PHI
Cassel got a big bump from opponent adjustments -- he'd have to, to finish in the middle of the pack despite an interception and two fumbles.
12.
Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ
21/34
272
2
0
2
58
61
-3
JAC
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Tyrod Taylor BUF
11/12
181
1
0
3
56
48
8
MIA
So, why on earth isn't Taylor higher? 1) DYAR is a counting stat and Taylor was 24th in dropbacks this week. Teddy Bridgewater got knocked out of the game midway through the third quarter and still had more dropbacks than Taylor did. 2) Four of his 11 completions were failed plays, including two third-down throws short of the sticks and a 7-yard loss on second-and-16. 3) He was sacked on 20 percent of his dropbacks.
14.
Jay Cutler CHI
27/40
345
2
1
1
52
52
0
SD
15.
Philip Rivers SD
26/42
280
1
0
2
47
47
0
CHI
16.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
24/44
334
2
1
1
46
46
0
OAK
17.
Blake Bortles JAC
24/40
381
2
2
6
46
21
25
NYJ
In a game the Jaguars lost by five points, Bortles had a lousy day in the red zone. Yes, he had a 20-yard touchdown to Bryan Walters, but otherwise inside the New York 20 he had four incompletions and a sack that resulted in a lost fumble.
18.
Sam Bradford PHI
25/36
295
1
0
1
42
42
0
DAL
19.
Jameis Winston TB
19/36
249
0
0
0
37
18
19
NYG
The Giants won this game 32-18, but it was a five-point game with one minute to go before New York kicked an insurance field goal and then returned a fumble for a touchdown on the game's final play. So it was much closer than the final score would indicate, and it might have been even closer had Winston played better in scoring range. In the red zone, he went 1-of-6 for 4 yards and no first downs. (He did have a 10-yard touchdown on the ground.)
20.
Blaine Gabbert SF
15/25
185
2
2
0
20
7
13
ATL
In total DYAR, this was not the best game of Blaine Gabbert's career -- it was the third-best game of Gabbert's career, behind Week 1 and Week 7 in 2012. I'm not even going to make a joke about that. Way to show improvement, Blaine!
21.
Johnny Manziel CLE
15/33
168
1
0
3
5
-1
6
CIN
Manziel's 12-yard touchdown to Duke Johnson left Cleveland down by just four points at halftime. On the Browns' next four drives, Manziel went 2-of-8 for just 13 yards and no first downs, with two sacks, and before you knew it Cleveland was down by 21 points in the fourth quarter.
22.
Matt Ryan ATL
30/45
303
1
0
2
3
6
-3
SF
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Kirk Cousins WAS
22/40
217
1
1
1
2
2
0
NE
24.
Peyton Manning DEN
21/36
281
2
2
1
0
0
0
IND
Usually when a quarterback finishes this low I try to find some split that really shows how bad he was, but there's no such split for Manning except his two picks. Take away all interceptions from all quarterbacks and he was 11th this week. But he did have one interception in Colts territory when the Broncos were down 10 at midfield, and another near midfield when they were down three points late in the fourth. And so here we are.
25.
Eli Manning NYG
26/40
213
2
2
0
-43
-43
0
TB
It might sound funny, considering he threw for a pair of touchdowns inside the 5-yard line, but the younger Manning failed to finish drives against Tampa Bay. Inside the opponents' 40-yard line, Eli went 7-of-16 for 54 yards with six first downs and an interception. The only quarterback who had worse DYAR inside the 40 was Nick Foles.
26.
Nick Foles STL
19/32
168
0
0
1
-58
-62
4
MIN
Foles had just one pass in the red zone, an incompletion on third-and-4. He had six dropbacks in the front zone: a 3-yard completion on third-and-10, an 11-yard loss on an intentional grounding on third-and-7, and four incompletions. Yes, that's a net loss of 8 yards on seven plays inside the Minnesota 40. That might not even be the worst split for Foles though. Instead, let's try this: after halftime, and including one overtime drive, he did not complete a single pass for a first down, going 7-of-13 for 37 yards with one sack and that intentional grounding foul. The only first down the Rams gained through the air in the second half was a 17-yard DPI by Kenny Britt.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
DeAngelo Williams PIT
27
170
2
2/4
55
0
78
61
17
OAK
We don't usually put much stock into the theory of "establishing the run," but there is evidence that the Raiders' defense wore down late in this game -- all four of Williams' 10-yard runs (including gains of 53 and 22 yards) came in the final 20 minutes of regulation. Williams had eight first downs on the ground against Oakland, while getting stuffed for no gain or a loss just four times. His two receptions went for 33 and 22 yards; one was a third-down conversion.
2.
Lamar Miller MIA
12
44
2
7/7
97
0
59
15
44
BUF
Slow and steady wins the race? Miller had one stuff and one 14-yard run; the rest of his carries all gained single-digit yardage. Only one of his completions was a "failed" play, and that was a 5-yard gain on second-and-nine. Otherwise, he had four first downs through the air, including gains of 21, 26, and 27 yards.
3.
Karlos Williams BUF
9
110
2
0/0
0
0
47
47
0
MIA
All of Williams' carries gained positive yardage, and five gained 10 yards or more, including a 38-yard touchdown on third-and-12 and a 25-yard run. Yes, Williams had five 10-yard gains in only nine runs. Only Adrian Peterson had more 10-yard runs this week, and he carried the ball 29 times.
4.
DeMarco Murray PHI
18
83
1
6/7
78
0
41
19
22
DAL
Murray ran for six first downs against Dallas, including gains of 11 and 20 yards, and converted each of his four carries with 1 or 2 yards to go. Meanwhile, he was hit for no gain or a loss only three times. His biggest reception was a 44-yard gain in the third quarter.
5.
James Starks GB
10
39
0
6/8
83
1
31
-1
32
CAR
Starks had first downs on runs of 9 and 15 yards, which basically offset his three carries for no gain or a loss. His biggest catches were a 29-yard touchdown and gains of 30 and 17 yards, all coming as the Packers made a furious fourth-quarter rally that ultimately fell short.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
DeAngelo Williams PIT
27
170
2
2/4
55
0
78
61
17
OAK
2.
Karlos Williams BUF
9
110
2
0/0
0
0
47
47
0
MIA
3.
Ryan Mathews PHI
11
67
1
0/1
0
0
26
32
-6
DAL
Mathews was hit for a loss just one time, but he had six first downs on the day, including gains of 11, 12, and 21 yards, plus a 6-yard touchdown and a fourth-and-1 conversion.
4.
Darren McFadden DAL
27
117
0
1/2
5
0
21
27
-6
PHI
Four gains of 12 yards or more and four other first downs on the ground, including six conversions in seven carries with 1 or 2 yards to go.
5.
Adrian Peterson MIN
29
125
1
2/2
18
0
12
26
-14
STL
It was feast or famine for the Vikings runner, as his six runs of 11 to 15 yards and his 6-yard touchdown were his only first downs of the day. Meanwhile, he was hit for no gain or a loss six times, fumbling on one of those carries.


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Doug Martin TB
11
31
0
2/4
12
0
-27
-15
-13
NYG
Martin had only one first down and no run longer than 5 yards, while getting hit for no gain or a loss twice and fumbling once. He failed to pick up a first down through the air despite targets on third-and-8, third-and-2, and second-and-5.


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Mark Ingram NO
22
54
0
4/5
42
0
-16
-39
23
TEN
Ingram's 12-yard run in the second quarter was his only carry of the day that gained more than 5 yards, and he had only three first downs on the day. Meanwhile, he was hit for no gain or a loss five times, and converted only one of four carries with 1 yard to go for a first down.


Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Antonio Brown PIT
17
23
284
16.7
0
90
OAK
Surprised Brown's DYAR is so low? It's actually even lower than you think -- his 90 DYAR total includes 70 DYAR receiving and 20 DYAR rushing for two carries for 22 yards, including a 16-yarder. Brown only had three failed completions, but when you include his six incompletions you're left with a success rate of 61 percent, which is good but not great. His third- and fourth-down numbers were hit or miss -- he converted on just four of ten targets, but those successes included gains of 41 and 57 yards.
2.
Sammy Watkins BUF
8
8
168
21.0
1
82
MIA
Watkins pretty much was the Buffalo passing game. Tyrod Taylor's four passes that were not thrown to Watkins resulted in one incomplete pass, two failed completions on third down, and a 7-yard loss on second-and-16. Watkins' only failed completion was a 6-yard gain on first-and-20. His other seven receptions all went for first downs, including a 63-yard gain, a 44-yard touchdown on third-and-14, and four total third-down conversions.
3.
Cole Beasley DAL
9
11
112
12.4
2
54
PHI
Beasley was actually second in the NFL in DYAR in the first three quarters of the game, but after starting the fourth with a 30-yard gain on third-and-8, his final four targets resulted in two completions for 10 yards and no first downs. He was a monster on third downs, though, catching four passes in five targets for four conversions and 65 yards, including a 5-yard touchdown and gains of 22 and 30 yards.
4.
Allen Hurns JAC
5
8
122
24.4
1
50
NYJ
All of Hurns' receptions against the Jets gained at least 16 yards and a first down, and four of them gained at least 27 yards.
5.
Dez Bryant DAL
5
8
104
20.8
1
45
PHI
Bryant's biggest catches were a 51-yard gain and an 18-yard touchdown on third-and-4. He had six first downs on the day, including gains of 7 and 8 yards on DPI flags.


Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Odell Beckham NYG
9
17
105
11.7
0
-49
TB
Beckham made a lof big plays for the Giants, with seven total first downs on the day. But he made a lot of bad plays too, with eight incompletions and one failed catch, a 3-yard gain on third-and-5. His worst play was actually a 24-yard catch that ended in a fumble. The Giants recovered, so it doesn't count as a failed completion, but it was his worst DYAR of the day.

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 09 Nov 2015

71 comments, Last at 12 Nov 2015, 11:02pm by Eleutheria

Comments

1
by Eleutheria :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 5:26am

Out if interest, if you flip Mariota's first TD into the INT that it should have been, what would Mariota's DYAR for the game have been?

12
by displaced_saints_fan :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 10:18am

I'm generally skeptical of "narrative" and "momentum", but I think if the Saints pick that off the game might have gotten away from the Titans. Of course, at one point the Colts game looked like it was heading that way, so maybe not.
I'm obviously biased, but during the games the Saints defense doesn't look as bad to me as they must be. Don't get me wrong, they look bad, but not historically bad. And I watched the Saints in the 70's. I really can't describe how terrible those teams were.

2
by Topas :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 6:25am

I am interested in how did McCoy do? I think he should be also rather high, although obviously not in the top 5. he had a few unsuccessful plays but a good average gain (7y) due to a few long runs. Albeit with two bad passes.
Nonetheless I would assume that he is above average and that it is rare to have two RBs on the same team that high. Could you please share his DYAR and rank for this week?

3
by Otis Taylor89 :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 8:22am

You should probably note the number of drops of Winston's passes that TB receivers had (I'm looking at you Mike Evans!).
From what I've seen, the Top 2 picks of the 2015 draft are going to be pretty good for a long time.

18
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 11:36am

Evans had either five or six, depending on who's counting. I really do wonder if his dog died Sunday morning or something else weird that turned him from a really sure-handed WR to a guy who couldn't catch *insert social disease here* from *insert person you don't like's* mom.

Winston was genuinely pretty crappy in the red zone, though, but I don't feel like he had anybody open most of the time. There was a lot of "first and goal from the 9, let's run up the middle a few times" playcalling, but, as the field compressed, it just feels like Winston goes into a bit of brain-lock at this point. He's gotten a few rushing TDs and I think he's starting to look away from his WRs and try to get another highlight-reel rushing TD instead of sticking in the pocket and waiting for somebody to open up.

I am shocked ODB was worse than Evans. ODB really didn't have a good game at all, but Evans had the worst big-yardage game I've seen somebody have.

4
by ammek :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 8:26am

Predictably, QBR loves Tyrod Taylor this week (98.0). I definitely think DYAR is a better single-game stat.

Having said that, I was not expecting to see Rodgers at #4 in passing DYAR this week. Extreme opponent adjustments really are hard to process when assessing a performance.

20
by Eleutheria :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 11:48am

I'm not exaggerating when I say that I think that was the best 4th quarter of his career, it's just a bad 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarters cost the Packers.

He also got a garbage time 40 yard pass to end the second half, that while should have been counted as a failure in DVOA (since with 2 seconds on the clock, Carolina was only interested in preventing a TD, they had no interest in stopping a large pass gain that would fall short of that) probably resulted in a large DYAR (since a 40 yard pass against Carolina's defense is normally hard to do).

Mix those in with opponent adjustments, and I'm not too surprised Rodgers was near the top of this list.

22
by RickD :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 12:02pm

QBR is terrible. It's just terrible.

5
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 9:34am

Two thoughts from me ...

a) Is the narrative correct for Tyrod Taylor when it says he "was 24th in dropbacks this week"? 12 pass attempts plus 3 sacks = 15 dropbacks. Surely he's 32nd at best?

b) Is Antonio Brown's DYAR affected by the muffed punt?

Also not sure whether the Raiders adjusted their defense to handle Brown in the 2nd half (after his 10recs for 180 in the first) which therefore allowed DeAngelo Williams to run freer, as opposed to the narrative about having "established the run and worn down the defense".

23
by tuluse :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 12:04pm

I think with byes there were only 12 games this week.

27
by ammek :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 12:10pm

Thirteen, I think, but that entry might have been written before the Monday night game.

In any case, Taylor had fewer dropbacks than any other QB listed in Quick Reads.

6
by Kyndynos :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 9:34am

How does Gabbert's game rank up against his past performances if you only look at passing DYAR? Still hard for me to wrap my head around the idea that Gabbert's third-best career game involved 2/3s of his DYAR coming from rushes.

7
by andrew :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 9:40am

cluding his one rushing play (a 2-yard gain on fourth-and-1 in the second quarter), Foles' game against the Rams works out to -59 total DYAR

While a game at the bottom of the rankings (even an above average bottom ranking like this one) often works against a team's chances of winning, Foles did what he did in a Rams uniform.

"I was corrupt before I had power!" - Random

8
by andrew :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 9:43am

just a minor suggestion, would be really nice to see total YAR alongside the total DYAR so you can readily see the impact of the defense.

17
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 11:30am

Agreed. It is interesting to me that Bridgewater climbs into the top 10, when playing a top 5 defense. In most weeks he has been being in the bottom 10, or worse, with 5 0f 7 games playing against bottom 5 defenses. When he faced Denver, in Denver, he at least cracked the top 20. He was 25th when he played against the mid-range defense of K.C., which was a weird one, with K.C. outplayng the Vikings on a per play basis, while the Vikings spent the great majority of the game with a win percentage expectation above 75%.

Could it be the truly hideous Vikings pass blocking, especially on the road, has destroyed any advantage that Bridgewater would be expected to obtain by playing a bad defense? I've noted before that even bad defensive fronts have at times looked like the '91 Eagles when being blocked by the Vikings this year, although that may have started to change a little, especially when playing at home (it also helped that the Rams were missing Quinn and Long this past Sunday). Looking at YAR may be illuminating.

(edit) Long and Quinn being out also made me wonder if you get enough of a sample to make DYAR, adjusted for games lost, metric useful. DYARAGL? ACRONYM NIRVANA!!!!!!!!!!

19
by jmaron :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 11:41am

the offensive line looked quite a bit better to me in the last two games. They opened up lots of running lanes and they didn't give up much pressure in the passing game.

Bridgewater missed some easy throws for big gains and tds in the last two games. Mike Wallace could have 5 TDs in the last two games with good throws by Bridgewater. Of course when he hits Wallace in the hands he tends to drop it.

In general, the more time Bridgewater has the more tentative he seems to get. I suspect his numbers under pressure are far better than avg but the reverse is probably true when he's not.

Going off on a tangent here, but why on earth did the Vikings lock up Wright. He was OK up until this year, but he's just a guy. He's actually been awful this year, he's dropped lots of easy passes in crucial situations.

25
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 12:07pm

Well, Norv has always liked him and his cap number next year is 2.5 million so he isn't terribly expensive and I'd gues his dead moeny after next year isn't too bad, if they cut him.

The glimmer of hope for the Vikings blocking is that Harris really seems to be taking to the guard position the last couple weeks, which is not wholly unexpected in the first half season of a position switch. Clemmings is making the not wholly unexpected improvement for a pretty athletic rookie. Kalil is not as bad as he was in 2014 and 2013, probably because he is healthier. This has, especially the last couple weeks, helped offset Fusco really having a tough time with the switch from the right to the left side (he really hasn't been a lot better than Charlie Freakin' Johnson) and starting, at center, a 33 year old career back up who hasn't played a lot of center.

If they can get a little break on injuries from here on out, especially with a defense which is getting really banged up, they can make December fun to watch, even with a brutal schedule. It'd be nice if they could win 2 of their next 4, or even 1, so they could go to Arizona on a short week without a sense of desperation, because that game has "injured reserve" written all over it.

26
by ammek :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 12:07pm

Yes, the Vikings' line hasn't been egregiously bad when I've seen them. PFF (caveat: it's PFF) ranks it as an average unit. I thought it did a better job against the Rams' front than the Packers' did last month.

28
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 12:19pm

They have been really bad at handling any sort of stunts, which is likely in good measure due to losing Sullivan at center, starting a rookie from week 1, and two other guys at new positions. Some of this stuff can get better as the season goes on.

15
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 11:18am

repeat

9
by djanyreason :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 9:48am

Not including injury subs for QBs anymore? Or did Shaun Hill and Landry Jones just not have enough dropbacks to qualify for the list somehow?

10
by andrew :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 9:50am

I really thought Devonta Freeman, he of 12 carries for 12 yards, might have had the least effective dyar (rushing, as he caught a touchdown pass). What was his day like?

11
by hrudey :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 9:59am

Probably better than Chris Ivory's 26 yards on 23 carries vs. Jacksonville, I would imagine.

13
by mehllageman56 :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 10:51am

I imagine if the Jets hadn't given him carries at the goal line, Ivory would have been the worst this week. Although, the Jacksonville run defense is pretty stout.

14
by andrew :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 10:59am

I note Bortles just missed out on the top 5 rushing DYAR.

16
by TomC :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 11:21am

I expected to see both Rivers and Cutler lower because: 1) both defenses are turrible; 2) Cutler's fumble and pick-six; 3) Rivers was throwing to Woodhead and a bunch of inanimate carbon rods. Also, Cutler's 1st-half/2nd-half splits are probably ridiculous, because the turnovers were in the 1st half, and the Bears three drives in the 2nd half were missed (short) FG, TD, TD (and the 2 TD drives were 93 and 80 yards and mostly passes).

21
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 11:49am

It's kind of an ironic shame that if Jay Cutler continues his pretty decent year it increases the chance that Adam Gase gets a head coach job, and takes Bears qb coach Dowell Loggains with him to be OC, although Loggains may advance his career more by being a coordinator for defensive oriented head coach like Fox. I think there are going to be greater than normal head coach openings come January, and if Cutler finishes in the top half of the league, Gase is going to get offered a job. Fox is a good head coach however, so Cutler likley will still be in decent shape.

24
by tuluse :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 12:06pm

I am super impressed with Gase. He would definitely be near the top of my list of candidates if I was interviewing.

70
by bravehoptoad :: Thu, 11/12/2015 - 12:34pm

We had Gase lined up here in San Francisco for Head Coach but blew it when we insisted that Tomsula be the DC. Gase wanted to keep Fangio.

Believe me, the SF fanbase is watching what's happening in Chicago with a sick stomach.

41
by Steve in WI :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 3:17pm

It would definitely be ironic if "coach killer" Cutler helped his OC leave town by having a particularly good season.

I feel really weird about the coverage Cutler is getting both in the national and local Chicago media this year; while I agree that he is playing better, I didn't think he was as bad last year as everyone else did. I have come around to thinking that the Bears are better off keeping him for at least another year, because his level of competence isn't easily replaced. It's just weird to me that people who were highly critical of him last year (I'm looking at you, Gruden) are now praising him just as highly, when to me he's only a bit better than he was before.

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by tuluse :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 3:21pm

5% DVOA isn't nothing, but in general the team is playing better which gives him a chance to look respectable instead of lining up in the 2nd quarter down 3 score already.

Another thing is that last year, I'm pretty sure there was quite a bit of politics and coaches intentionally trying to make Cutler look bad to the media.

49
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 4:56pm

It is ridiculous that Aaron Kromer still has had an NFL coaching career. However accurate the criticism of Cutler's behavior, for an assistant to be speaking off the record to the media, about his qb's negative attributes, is inexcusably stupid.

44
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 4:01pm

Look, why a guy performs suboptimally has a lot to do with how he is talked about, and that isn't unreasonable. For instance, when a 30 year old guy loses important accuracy in critical moments because he hasn't taken the time in the offseason to mercilessly drill himself out of crappy throwing mechanics, despite consuming a very large percentage of his team's cap space, and that guy isn't Stubbleface, with three straight MVP titles and a Lombardi to point to, well, people are going to often speak harshly of him.

I've never been one of those who thought the Bears should dump Cutler, because the simple fact is that replacing him with something beter is going to be problematic. I've also ripped him pretty good when he has needlessly put forth slop. Getting Lovie fired in December 2012, when he came to Metrodome, and played like he had 5 Bloody Mary's with early Sunday Brunch, really irritated me, and I was obviously rooting for the other team. I don't think this is contradictory.

38
by BJR :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 2:15pm

It sure helped the Bears when Verrett went out of the game, so that there was absolutely nobody with a chance of covering Jeffery. From that point on, every time Alshon wasn't targeted was basically a win for the Chargers.

42
by Steve in WI :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 3:21pm

Didn't whoever replaced Verrett make at least a couple of good plays to break up passes intended for Jeffery? It didn't seem like the dropoff was like what I would have expected.

65
by BJR :: Wed, 11/11/2015 - 8:44am

He was targeted so often that, yeah, there were a couple of good plays. But whenever the Bears really needed the yards they went to him and the Chargers couldn't stop it. I recall a couple of crucial plays towards the end where Cutler, under pressure, just flung it in Jeffery's direction and the covering defender was boxed out, where I felt a stronger, quicker (better) DB could definitely have made a play.

57
by TomC :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 6:05pm

The hitch-and-go route to Jeffery on the first play after the pick-6 was a brilliant call, both because Verrett had just jumped that route and because he had just run 70 yards on a dead sprint. The pulled hammy was probably a coincidence, but you never know. I've had major issues with some of Gase's play calling this year, but he had a great game last night.

Unrelated to quick reads but on the subject of that game: Anybody know what Kyle Long did to get that unsportsmanlike penalty (which seemed huge at the time, because it would have been 4th and 3 at the SD 35, and I imagine the Bears would have gone for it)? He never bumped the official, and he didn't even seem that animated. Perhaps he said one of the magic words...

29
by greybeard :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 12:54pm

I am curious what DYAR he would have gotten had Simpson caught the ball instead of giving it the defense as gift. It was a long completion that turned into an INT because of the incompetence of the WR.

31
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 12:59pm

Simpson has been really poor; a little rust was to be expected but by my count he's dropped six passes in two games. Not good.

30
by BroncFan07 :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 12:55pm

Curious - with how bad Denver's running game has been most of the year, how do their backs not get the coveted Worst RB award? Sunday was pretty brutal. Are they not actually running enough to make it truly worthless?

32
by deus01 :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 1:03pm

Anderson had 34 yards on 7 carriers which isn't terrible despite how bad he actually looked in the game. Hillman had 1 yard on 7 carries so I assume the only reason why he isn't on the list is that it's just too small of a sample.

33
by BroncFan07 :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 1:09pm

And if my math is correct, by your numbers that would be 8 rushes total for them. Ugh.

36
by deus01 :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 1:31pm

Well Hillman had 7 carries for a total of 1 yard. So that's pretty brutal.

14 carries is still bad but I guess if it's not working there's no reason to keep trying it.
I feel like a lot of the failed drives in the first half were two runs for no gain followed by Peyton trying to throw for a third and long.

56
by BroncFan07 :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 6:05pm

Naturally my math wasn't even correct. It got hit 2 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Oh wait, that was Hillman.

34
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 1:09pm

Probably more that Doug Martin was utterly awful. He got continually stopped, fumbled when the ball was barely touched by the defender, and had a perfect ball for what probably would have been a TD, and simply dropped it. By far the worst he's played this year.

35
by tuluse :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 1:12pm

Regarding the last table of QBs by weeks in season, it makes sense than QBing would get worse as more QBs are injured or key offensive players who are propping up not-so-good QBs.

37
by Eleutheria :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 1:47pm

"His 1-yard touchdown to Michael Hoomanawanui put the Saints up 28-0 with about 11 minutes to go"
I think you mean 28-20, otherwise what it seems like you were describing as a disaster of epic proportions for the Saints.

39
by carljm :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 2:35pm

Luck's 3 yd TD to Doyle in the second quarter put the Colts up 17-0, not 17-7. The Broncos first score was the punt return TD as the first half expired; they scored 17 unanswered to come back and tie the game.

40
by panthersnbraves :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 2:41pm

Interesting read about Mariota. The Panthers Coaching Staff did not give them a "Victory Monday" off. Their official line was that there were too many little mistakes in the last two games and they wanted to clean that up going forward. Us fans read that as "We're not going to let the Titans be the ones who jump up and mess up the perfect run, after we gritted out these last two." Seeing MM with the highest rating makes that decision look even smarter.

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by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 4:06pm

Luck out 2-6 weeks. He needs to get away from that team.

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by greybeard :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 4:32pm

He should retire. Football is a violent sport.
Kidding aside he got injured on a scramble where he decided to go for the first down despite knowing that he would be hit hard.
Also where should he go? Who would leave the cupcakes of AFC South? That division makes an above average QB look like a HOFer.

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by greybeard :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 4:33pm

What the hell is wrong with the spam filter. I am logged in and every single one of my comments require captcha. What could trip a spam filter in my comment above? Or in this one?

FO's technology is from 1990s it seems.

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by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 4:39pm

He should go to a team where the people at the top of the organizational chart don't watch Trent Richardson's rookie season, and say to themselves, "That's worth a 1st round draft pick".

50
by greybeard :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 5:13pm

Come on now. All FOs make mistakes in the draft and free agency. And their performance vary from one year to another a lot. If Luck knows which front office is going to hit on all cylinders, every year, of course he should go there. So should Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and so on and on. But there is no such FO.

Also it is the same FO that brought his favorite coach (Hamilton), good targets for him (Fleener and the other TE, and Hilton). He may not has as much influence where he goes.

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by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 5:27pm

There's a base level of competency that must be continuously demonstrated in any profession. If a surgeon at a top tier hospital opens you up to remove your appendix, and takes out a kidney instead, chances are his career is over, at that level of the industry. This wasn't an evaluation mistake made on a college player, projecting him at the next level. This was a mistake made on a guy in the league already, playing at the easiest position to evaluate, behind an o-line with 4 great to decent starters. Whomever made that decision is like a surgeon who doesn't know the difference between an organ of unknown purpose, and one obviously vital to life.

53
by greybeard :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 5:40pm

This is such a straw man I think you are trolling for fun.
Colts played AFC championship game last year. Grigson has a 37-20 record since he took over. Qualified for play offs all three times and have 3-3 record in playoffs.
You can do a lot worse than that. Way worse.

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by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 6:11pm

He has been in place for less than 4 years, and he had the great wisdom to take a job where his 1st draft pick, at the top of the draft, was the biggest no brainer since John Elway, playing in what you correctly note is a weak division. That is what produced 3 playoff appearances.

Look, if you want to say that a professional football talent evaluator, who watched Trent Richardson's rookie year, in the context of Trent Richardson's rookie year, and concluded that Trent Richardson was worth a 1st round pick, is likely good at his job, because Andrew Luck was available to draft, and was able to get to the playoffs 3 times from 2012 through 2015, in the AFC South, go ahead. I disagree.

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by Anon Ymous :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 7:13pm

Will's Richardson comment is overly simplistic, but he isn't off base with the overall point. Grigson had the good fortune of lucking into a top QB, pun intended, but hasn't done much else well. Not saying every move has been a mistake, that would be nearly impossible, but the hit/miss ratio isn't what you expect out of someone who forged a top tier team.

Some of the other talking points are misleading as well. Indy's record is inflated due to playing in the AFCS, and the supposed playoff development has an incredible amount of luck involved. For instance, 11-5 led to a road game in 2012, but it was good enough to get home games in 2013 and 2014. Would the 2013 or 2014 teams beaten the 2012 Raven squad in Baltimore? Would the 2012 team beaten the 2014 Bengals in Indy? Who and where they played has as much to do with their playoff "growth" as team development, IMO.

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by greybeard :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 11:27pm

He has not been the best GM, nor the worst. And there is no guarantee that if Luck's go somewhere he will find a better GM. There is not much of consistency out there.
MCCloughlen was great when he was sober and then he was not sober, Baalke was great at picking HCs (Harbaugh) , at draft and free agency (Carlos Rogers, Whitner, Bathea) until he wasn't (Tomsula, A Jenkins, etc). Dorsey was great at free agency (Sean Smith, Fasano, etc) and sucked at draft (Fisher, Ford) until he started sucking at free agency (Walker, and a few others I don't remember) but became great at drafting (they have 3 productive players and one that could be DROY for this year and Fisher is playing better) and so on and on.
Even Ozzie is not shielded from making mistakes.

This is quite a pointless discussion really. Luck does not really have much of an option to begin with. And whether it is due to GM or him or weak division or other factors or all of them combined, he is in a pretty great situation that allowed him to go to playoffs every year and have lots of wins. There is no reason to think that Colts dominance at AFC South will diminish next year or beyond. Why leave that?

63
by Will Allen :: Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:05am

If untested draftees like Eli Manning and John Elway could exercise considerable leverage, so can Andrew Luck. Why would he want to? Because he wants to play on a better roster, and partner with management that doesn't do stupid stuff.

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by Anon Ymous :: Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:24pm

Because Luck may have higher goals than dominating a terrible division?

68
by Dave Bernreuther :: Wed, 11/11/2015 - 7:45pm

My response to that is that the most important demand he could make would be to play a role in hiring his coach.

The problem with that, of course, is that maybe even someone as smart as he is doesn't know what works best to improve him (and others), not to mention availability of a better alternative.

I'm very firmly in the camp that believes that with some notable exceptions on the negative side, the talent gap between a great GM and a bad GM is pretty small, much like the overall talent gap (scheme and coaching excepted) among NFL players. It's really easy to find the ones that failed, but most of them fail at some point. And pointing out obvious alternative decisions that'd have worked better (and, more importantly, would have been realistically available) is a much more difficult exercise than it would seem.

Will is right about T-Rich, even if you ignore the college tape and just focus on the first year. That trade was BAD. Hell, even if T-Rich showed flashes that he might be Gurley-like, it's not that hard an argument to make that it still would've been bad, just due to the opportunity cost of that particular draft and the fungibility of the position. Richardson could've been a 100 a game rusher this whole time and I still wouldn't have spent the pick. So that trade alone could be considered a fire-able offense, really.

But set that aside, and frankly I think his drafting record isn't nearly as bad as people make it out to be (even if you except Luck), nor were the alternatives that much better. Sure a few studs have come out of the later rounds of the draft, but are we really going to pretend that John Schneider is some kind of genius because Richard Sherman turned out to be great from the 5th at the exact same time that Russell Wilson was [good to great, whatever] on a 3rd round pick's salary, which let them build and pay the rest of the team? If Gene Smith drafts Wilson instead of Brian Anger (ha), is Schneider hailed as a great GM, or is he just another Doug Whaley in Buffalo? (And there's a reason I chose him as the comparable... his name is Percy Harvin.)

The line is thin. Luck could force his way out, but what alternative is really any better? Maybe Arizona, due to Palmer's age (which isn't that super high, really)? Every supposedly good GM has a good QB already. (Funny how that works out.) A lot of good defenses with mediocre QBs exist, but they can't afford to pay a fresh free agent Luck and remain intact.

I'll grant you that Luck's rookie contract would've worked with pretty much any of these Scary-D/Bad-QB teams like St. Louis, Arizona, Buffalo, Jets, Seattle (though Wilson worked out fine), SF, even Cleveland and KC, but how much of that difference can we attribute to superior GM-ing in those places as opposed to simply fortuitous timing?

Even the situations that'd be better for Luck as he hits free agency and exercises this leverage are only sure to remain demonstrably better for a year or two. Unless he identifies the coach with whom he could partner and trust to coach up all the random players that come through the revolving door of that (and every) franchise. And he could do that in Indianapolis just as easily as he could anywhere else. And let's be honest here - our views of just how common it is to sustain success in this league have been skewed by Bill Belichick.

As easy as it is to pick on the OL, that problem is exaggerated, and the pass D up the middle and the lack of edge pass rushing and a great safety is a problem shared by almost every other team too. So it really isn't clear what a "better" GM would have done. Nate Dunlevy has said that the model that's proving (after the fact) to be right is, ironically, Carolina, which built the defense first at the QB's expense (worth noting that until a few weeks ago we all regarded their OL - with Michael Oher at left tackle - to be pretty dangerous too) and is now winning even without weapons. And that's a pretty solid statement. The philosophy of "get a bunch of toys for the QB and create an offensive juggernaut" isn't the greatest.

But show me a GM with the foresight as well as the balls to not surround the hyped and talented young #1 draft pick QB with some reliable targets even when they're at the top of the draft board. Are we really sure that 29-31 other GMs would've chosen that path?

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by eagle97a :: Wed, 11/11/2015 - 9:06pm

Agreed with all these points and the only thing I could add would be most fans (myself included) under-appreciates the benefits accrued from coaching and FO continuity and more importantly, supportive and intelligent ownership. It is undeniable that the Bengals are right now reaping the fruits of staying the course with their coaching and FO. We see the continued progression of Andy Dalton as a franchise qb which is a critical piece in any NFL franchise. This could have happened also with the mid '00 Chargers except for the really stupid decision to let go of Schotty and derailing the rise of the Chargers then. We all understand that ownership is beholden to fans and might make decisions that are popular with fans but shortsighted but that doesn't excuse their obligation to make the right decisions for their franchises. If ownership can't do that then they should give up and sell it to better owners. Unfortunately the NFL is a gravy train and owners will not willingly give up their stakes for economic reasons. And lastly luck plays a very big role in everything and the Colts should feel fortunate they have one (pun intended) and I think Andrew Luck could do worse but stay the course and trust the FO and ownership that they do the right thing.

51
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 5:27pm

Out if interest, if you flip Mariota's first TD into the INT that it should have been, what would Mariota's DYAR for the game have been?

Very drastic. Assuming nothing else changes, switching that from a touchdown to an interception drops Mariota by about 100 DYAR.

I am interested in how did McCoy do? I think he should be also rather high, although obviously not in the top 5. he had a few unsuccessful plays but a good average gain (7y) due to a few long runs. Albeit with two bad passes.
Nonetheless I would assume that he is above average and that it is rare to have two RBs on the same team that high. Could you please share his DYAR and rank for this week?

Negative DYAR receiving (see Sammy Watkins’ comment -- two of those “other” receptions went to McCoy). 19 DYAR rushing, 7th among RBs this week.

I am shocked ODB was worse than Evans. ODB really didn't have a good game at all, but Evans had the worst big-yardage game I've seen somebody have.

Evans was bad (-18 DYAR), but he wasn’t in the bottom ten receivers. Tons of incompletes, but no fumbles, and he did have that 68-yard catch.

[Rodgers] also got a garbage time 40 yard pass to end the second half, that while should have been counted as a failure in DVOA (since with 2 seconds on the clock, Carolina was only interested in preventing a TD, they had no interest in stopping a large pass gain that would fall short of that) probably resulted in a large DYAR (since a 40 yard pass against Carolina's defense is normally hard to do).

25 DYAR on that play. Take it away and Rodgers has the same spot in the rankings this week.

a) Is the narrative correct for Tyrod Taylor when it says he "was 24th in dropbacks this week"? 12 pass attempts plus 3 sacks = 15 dropbacks. Surely he's 32nd at best?

This was written before Monday night, so Taylor was 26th when all was said and done, but yeah, there were six teams on a bye this week.

b) Is Antonio Brown's DYAR affected by the muffed punt?

No. DYAR represents offensive plays only.

Not including injury subs for QBs anymore? Or did Shaun Hill and Landry Jones just not have enough dropbacks to qualify for the list somehow?

Hill and Jones only had six passes each. The table is built automatically, I think it filters out anyone with fewer than eight passes.

I really thought Devonta Freeman, he of 12 carries for 12 yards, might have had the least effective dyar (rushing, as he caught a touchdown pass). What was his day like?

-28 DYAR rushing, second worst. Five stuffs (including four losses of 3 yards or more) in 12 carries is quite bad.

Probably better than Chris Ivory's 26 yards on 23 carries vs. Jacksonville, I would imagine.

-23 DYAR, fourth-worst. (Dexter McCluster was between Ivory and Freeman with 8 carries for 19 yards.) Ivory had two 1-yard touchdowns and a 9-yard run in the first quarter, and those were his only successful carries of the day.

I am curious what DYAR he would have gotten had Simpson caught the ball instead of giving it the defense as gift. It was a long completion that turned into an INT because of the incompetence of the WR.

You’re talking about Gabbert-to-Simpson on the 49ers? If Simpson catches that ball and is then tackled for no YAC, you can add about 55 DYAR to Gabbert’s numbers.

Curious - with how bad Denver's running game has been most of the year, how do their backs not get the coveted Worst RB award? Sunday was pretty brutal. Are they not actually running enough to make it truly worthless?

Hillman made the bottom ten RBs in rushing on only seven carries, which is pretty impressive, but yes, DYAR is a counting stat, and the Broncos runners generally haven’t gotten enough carries to rack up bad runs.

What the hell is wrong with the spam filter. I am logged in and every single one of my comments require captcha. What could trip a spam filter in my comment above? Or in this one?

Sorry about that. Our forums have been spam-bombed very heavily for the past couple of weeks. We were getting literally hundreds of spam postings every day, and had to crank up the security settings.

While a game at the bottom of the rankings (even an above average bottom ranking like this one) often works against a team's chances of winning, Foles did what he did in a Rams uniform.

I think you mean 28-20, otherwise what it seems like you were describing as a disaster of epic proportions for the Saints.

Luck's 3 yd TD to Doyle in the second quarter put the Colts up 17-0, not 17-7. The Broncos first score was the punt return TD as the first half expired; they scored 17 unanswered to come back and tie the game.

All fixed. Thank you.

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by greybeard :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 5:43pm

Thanks for the answers. The Mariota-Gabbert interception flips show that a lot can change in one play in the NFL. They would be about 6th best QB of the week had their lucks were swapped. Instead one s first the other one is down somewhere. It evens out over a season. Nevertheless quite interesting.

71
by Eleutheria :: Thu, 11/12/2015 - 11:02pm

Swapping the luck around and Mariota becomes 10th and Gabbert becomes 11th.

That's a 9 rank swing for each.

55
by tuluse :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 5:51pm

Thanks for the answers Vince.

59
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 6:21pm

Thanks for taking the time to reply Vince.

60
by Athelas :: Tue, 11/10/2015 - 7:04pm

I love the back and forth on this site--many of the posters add a lot and it works best when you guys respond--thanks!

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by chemical burn :: Wed, 11/11/2015 - 1:24pm

You're the best, Vince!

64
by bubqr :: Wed, 11/11/2015 - 6:28am

To explain the high numbers this week: as per Football Perspective, "teams teams threw 48 touchdowns and just 18 interceptions. That’s a 2.67 touchdown/interception ratio, the highest single ratio in any week in NFL history."

http://www.footballperspective.com/passers-in-week-9-2015-generated-the-...