Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

02 Feb 2016

QR Bonus: Keys To Beating Denver

by Vincent Verhei

Last week in this space, we looked at Carolina's worst games this season, in search of weaknesses that Denver might be able to exploit in the Super Bowl. Not it's time to turn the tables and check out the Broncos at their worst. Which teams were able to keep Denver off-balance, and expose holes in their game?

In chronological order, here are Denver's four worst games by DVOA this year:

  • Baltimore 13 at Denver 19, Week 1: Denver's offense never made it to the end zone on this day, but they did give up a touchdown on a 24-yard interception return for a touchdown that put the Ravens up 10-9 in the third quarter. Peyton Manning and company were bailed out by a defense that scored on a 51-yard Aqib Talib pick-six that put Denver back in front, and by kicker Brandon McManus, who went 4-for-4 on field goals, including kicks from 56 and 57 yards. The Ravens still managed a first down in the red zone in the final minute of the game, but Joe Flacco threw two incompletions before being intercepted by Darian Stewart to seal the win. (Speaking of Flacco, it's worth noting that this game scores so low for Denver in part due to opponent adjustments, but those opponent adjustments for Baltimore are affected by the multitude of injuries the Ravens suffered throughout the year. The Broncos had to play the Ravens at full strength, when Flacco, Steve Smith, and Justin Forsett were all healthy. By season's end, when Ryan Mallett was handing off to Javorius Allen and passing to Kamar Aiken, the Ravens were almost literally a different football team.)
  • Denver 26 at Cleveland 23 (OT), Week 6: In a game that was similar to the Baltimore contest, McManus made four short field goals (though he missed a 51-yarder) and Talib scored again, this time on a 63-yard interception return. The Broncos took a 16-7 lead in the fourth quarter, but the Browns came back with a 35-yard Karlos Dansby pick-six to put the Browns up 20-16. The Broncos added a 75-yard touchdown pass from Manning to Emmanuel Sanders to take the lead before the Browns tied the game on a field goal. The Broncos got the ball twice with a chance to win the game in regulation, but gained 13 total yards on the two drives and headed to overtime. Then they were intercepted on their first drive, but after their defense forced a three-and-out, they were able to march 72 yards in 13 plays to get the winning kick.

  • Kansas City 29 at Denver 13, Week 10: The day that Manning broke the all-time career passing yardage record… and then was benched for Brock Osweiler. Nine of Denver's first ten drives went three plays or less, none gained more than 25 yards, and each ended in an interception or a punt. Meanwhile, Kansas City was getting a big day from Cairo Santos (5-of-6 on field goals, including kicks of 48, 49, and 50 yards), and an 80-yard touchdown catch by Charcandrick West put Kansas City up 29-0 in the fourth quarter before Osweiler led a pair of garbage-time touchdown drives.
  • Oakland 15 at Denver 12, Week 14: Proof that Denver's offensive struggles ran deeper than Manning's arm, and that the midseason switch to Osweiler was no panacea. McManus kicked four field goals in the first half to put the Broncos up 12-0, but his only kick in the second half, a 49-yarder that would have tied the game, was no good. The Raiders only had eight first downs in the entire game, four of them on an 80-yard touchdown drive in the third quarter, but their defense chipped in with a safety, then Sanders fumbled a punt to set up what proved to be the game-winning 11-yard touchdown drive.

Sometimes we do this exercise and have to hunt for patterns, or look for fits in three out of four games or something. This time it's much easier. In their worst four games, the Broncos' offense was a complete disaster, averaging 4.6 yards per passing play and 3.5 yards per rush. In most statistical measures, Osweiler was clearly the better passer in these four games. Still, his high sack numbers show a clear lack of pocket presence at this stage in his game, and given the ferocious nature of the Carolina pass rush, it's not quite so cut and dry that one quarterback or the other should start.


Manning vs. Osweiler in Denver's Bad Games
Name Cmp Att Yds TD INT Sk Cmp% Yds/Pass Yds/Cmp
Manning 55 108 500 1 8 6 50.9% 4.6 9.1
Osweiler 49 75 454 1 1 8 65.3% 6.1 9.3

We all know Manning is starting the Super Bowl and will likely finish it as well, so there's not much point in arguing which of the two quarterbacks gives Denver its best chance to win. That doesn't mean this table can't teach us anything, though. Take note of that right-hand column. Osweiler was much more accurate than Manning, while Manning was more elusive, but neither was able to generate many big plays. The Broncos threw 34 deep passes (balls that traveled more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage) in these four games, completing only five of them for 153 yards. Two others resulted in DPIs for 52 more yards, but that's still a horrendous average of 6.0 yards on deep throws. (The Jets averaged 9.0 yards per deep pass in 2015, the lowest figure in the league.) And if we limit that further to passes that traveled more than 25 yards downfield, then in these four games the Broncos went 0-for-10, with one DPI for 36 yards. Neither of Denver's top two wideouts made consistent plays in these four games, either. Demaryius Thomas had a 65 percent catch rate, but averaged only 9.9 yards per catch. Sanders had that 75-yarder against Cleveland, but otherwise averaged just 8.9 yards per catch, and his catch rate was a woeful 42 percent. So this was the key to shutting down the Denver passing game in 2015: taking away the home-run ball, make them drive the length of the field, and wait for them to implode.

The other thing to note about the Denver offense in these games is how one-dimensional they were. True, they were playing catchup most of the way against Kansas City, but the other three games were all back-and-forth affairs. Yet even as the passing game floundered, Denver didn't make much of an effort to run the ball. In these four bad games, they ran the ball only 32 percent of the time; in their other 12 games, that number climbed to 40 percent. This would make sense if we were talking about the Manning of 10 or five or even two years ago, but given his obvious drawbacks now, passing on two-thirds of all plays seems ludicrous. But if that's how they want to play it, the Panthers won't need to be shy about stuffing the box and daring Manning to beat them. The Broncos have shown a tendency to kill themselves with a pass-wacky attack this year.

So all of this is the bad news for the Broncos. The good news? Even in these, their worst games of the year, their defense was still lights-out dominant. In fact, their DVOA in these four games of -34.0% was actually better than their full-season DVOA of -25.8%. Their overall decline in these four games was entirely due to offense and special teams. The defense showed a remarkable ability all year to play at its best when it was needed most.

A sample of the defense's amazing numbers in Denver's four worst games overall:

  • The quartet of Joe Flacco, Josh McCown, Alex Smith, and Derek Carr was held to a 51 percent completion rate and 5.1 yards per pass, with five touchdowns, four interceptions, and 11 sacks.
  • Opponents averaged 78.8 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per carry.
  • Steve Smith, Jeremy Maclin, and Amari Cooper combined for just five catches for 30 yards. True, Cleveland's Travis Benjamin had nine catches for 117 yards, but opponents' top wideouts still had a measly catch rate of 41 percent and 10.5 yards per catch.
  • Given the critical role Greg Olsen plays in Carolina's passing game, we should mention Denver's ability to cover tight ends. Denver game a smattering of big plays here, as tight ends averaged 53.8 yards with three touchdowns and 11.9 yards per catch in this four-game set. However, that came with a catch rate of just 50 percent. Gary Barnidge and Travis Kelce, the best tight ends they played in this sample, combined for eight catches and 75 yards in 18 targets.
  • Running the ball didn't work out much better. Some of these teams went with run-heavy attacks and racked up high-yardage totals, but none averaged more than 3.3 yards per rush, and collectively that average was just 2.8.

At their worst this year, the Broncos became an extreme version of themselves, with the best defense on earth trying desperately to win with an offense that could barely manage to stay out of its own way. Given that their Super Bowl opponents from Carolina are also strongest on defense, it's likely that the NFL's championship game will be a low-scoring contest decided by a very small number of big plays. Carolina's offense has consistently outplayed Denver's this season, so the Panthers should definitely be favored, but there's a good chance that the game will still be up for grabs into the fourth quarter. With neither team likely to put many long drives together, or get big plays in the return game, turnovers will be even more important than usual. The team that gets more short-field scoring opportunities will likely leave Santa Clara as Super Bowl champions.

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 02 Feb 2016

9 comments, Last at 04 Feb 2016, 12:03pm by BroncosGuyAgain

Comments

1
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 02/02/2016 - 4:19pm

Legendary defense with very suspect QB play up against mobile black QB who has finally come into his own leading run-heavy juggernaut whose best WR is a TE?

Sounds a bit like Baltimore-Tennessee in 2000, when Dilfer's Baltimore won two out of three against an arguably overall better Tennessee team run by McNair, by making all three games rock fights. They managed to win a playoff game 24-10, in which they converted 6 first downs and managed 170 yards of offense.

Actually, the best winning strategy was to be outgained by 170 yards or so. Then you had them right where you wanted them.

That said, Lewis, Holmes, and George are probably all better runners than anyone in this game.

2
by Will Allen :: Tue, 02/02/2016 - 5:44pm

Unless Carolina gets a big lead I expect that Denver will keep trying to run, no matter how ineffective it is, because the alternative is to have a defensive front, against a less talented offensive line, being able to focus competely on maximizing pass rush against a immobile guy who no longer has the throwing ability to zip the ball without arc into small windows, or throw deep with authority and accuracy. I don't care how smart that guy is, that's not what you want to do.

Next Monday, there will be all kinds of people saying, especially if the Broncos lose by something like 1-10 points, that the Broncos should have just abandoned the run, instead of just handing it off, one stuff after another. They just can't do it, however. As long as the contest is ugly, grinding, monotonous, to the average football fan, and stays relatively tight, the Broncos need to stay the course, in hope of getting a turnover before too deep into the 4th quarter, or somebody falling down in coverage, or everybody getting a hat on hat on one of those zone blocking runs which produces a big gain out of nowhere.

Obviously, getting a break to take the lead early would be huge.

3
by SuperGrover :: Wed, 02/03/2016 - 1:25am

Agree. Think the play here is to keep close and push Cam to make a mistake. He has been mistaken prone throughout his career although has been solid in that area this season. if I'm Denver though I hope he throws a couple picks that we can either turn into points or use to keep Carolina off the board and make it a four quarter game. I think they can and I think they will.

4
by Mugsy :: Wed, 02/03/2016 - 11:24am

If anyone is going to be throwing picks- I'm leaning toward Peyton. What other SB QB has had a worse season than Manning did this year? He has a tendency to float the ball every now & then- and these Carolina DBs are likely to make him pay for it. If I'm a Bronco fan, I'm going to cross my fingers & hold me breath every time Manning drops back to pass.

5
by anon76returns :: Wed, 02/03/2016 - 11:33am

Don't you think Manning looks a little different now than he did back in weeks 1-10? His arm has a little bit more zip, so less of that floating, but much more importantly he's not making dumb decisions with the ball now. He was constantly trying to drop it in over underneath coverage from linebackers, and was consistently losing that gamble. Now he's not gambling. Other than a deep sideline interception by Woodson, almost none of Manning's INTs were due to arm strength. They were due to poor decision making. He's made a first ballot HOF career out of being smarter than the defense, so as a Bronco fan I don't feel much need to cross my fingers. As long as Peyton plays smart (and he's infinitely capable of playing smart), he won't be turnover prone.

6
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Wed, 02/03/2016 - 11:47am

Zeke Bratkowski, Tony Eason, Steve Fuller, David Woodley. Tony Banks was pretty crappy in 2000, although he did get his fumbling under (more) control.

9
by BroncosGuyAgain :: Thu, 02/04/2016 - 12:03pm

I am. And I do.

7
by RickD :: Wed, 02/03/2016 - 12:02pm

Based on the film review of the Pats' O-line play, apparently one key to beating the Broncos' defense would be to not have your center signalling the snap with a head bob.

8
by MTats :: Wed, 02/03/2016 - 1:07pm

Great article! That last sentence seems especially key to the Broncos offense - "The team that gets more short-field scoring opportunities will likely leave Santa Clara as Super Bowl champions". If I am reading the OFF LOS/Dr stats right Denver ranks at the bottom for the average starting field position while Carolina ranks 2nd. Does the OFF LOS/Dr position for Denver improve more based on score gap figures you posted yesterday? Since the Denver defense seem to play better when they are trailing by a small margin (per Denver offense by score gap figures) - does the field position for the Denver offense improve as a result? If so, it bolsters your idea that they will continue to run even if it is ineffective in hopes of getting a short-term field to take advantage of.

Denver offense by score gap:
Losing Big: 8.1% DVOA (14th)
Losing Small/Tied: -2.6% (17th)
Winning Small: -22.7% (28th)
Winning Big: -12.9% (25th)