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» Week 11 DVOA Ratings

DVOA has finally climbed on board the Wentz Wagon! The Eagles move into the No. 1 spot, but they aren't the only strong, well-balanced team in the NFL this year. New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and the Los Angeles Rams make this one of the best seasons ever for multiple teams over 30% in DVOA, and Minnesota isn't far behind.

04 Jan 2016

Week 17 Quick Reads

by Aaron Schatz

Traditionally, for the last week of the year, Quick Reads is a rundown of the best and worst players of the season by DYAR, rather than analysis of Week 17. Vincent Verhei is writing that article for tomorrow. For those of you who want to see Week 17, however, here are the tables with the best and worst DYAR totals for the final week of the season. You will all have to provide the commentary yourselves, as we're all busy with 100,000 other end-of-season tasks.

Tables with full-season stats for players are up now. Tables for team stats, along with full-season DVOA ratings and commentary, will be up late this afternoon.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Ryan Tannehill MIA
25/38
350
2
0
1
187
176
11
NE
2.
Cam Newton CAR
21/26
294
2
0
4
128
117
12
TB
3.
Drew Brees NO
32/42
323
1
0
0
123
123
0
ATL
4.
Russell Wilson SEA
19/28
197
3
0
1
121
130
-9
ARI
5.
Kirk Cousins WAS
12/15
176
3
0
0
117
117
0
DAL
6.
Matthew Stafford DET
28/39
298
3
0
4
106
112
-5
CHI
7.
Sam Bradford PHI
30/38
320
2
1
1
86
86
0
NYG
8.
Tyrod Taylor BUF
18/28
182
0
0
2
79
52
27
NYJ
9.
Eli Manning NYG
24/42
302
2
0
2
74
74
0
PHI
10.
Jameis Winston TB
29/47
325
0
2
2
59
47
12
CAR
11.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
24/36
349
3
2
0
47
47
0
CLE
12.
Kellen Moore DAL
33/48
435
3
2
4
32
32
0
WAS
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Matt Ryan ATL
24/36
334
2
1
1
32
32
0
NO
14.
Ryan Lindley IND
6/10
58
1
0
0
28
28
0
TEN
15.
A.J. McCarron CIN
17/27
160
2
0
3
23
29
-7
BAL
16.
Colt McCoy WAS
7/11
128
1
0
1
22
22
0
DAL
17.
Carson Palmer ARI
12/25
129
1
1
0
20
20
0
SEA
18.
Peyton Manning DEN
5/9
69
0
0
1
11
11
0
SD
19.
Philip Rivers SD
21/35
228
2
1
3
9
7
2
DEN
20.
Case Keenum STL
23/38
238
0
0
0
3
1
2
SF
21.
Alex Tanney TEN
10/14
99
1
0
3
3
3
0
IND
22.
Blaine Gabbert SF
28/44
354
1
1
1
-4
-8
4
STL
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Ryan Mallett BAL
30/54
292
1
2
1
-21
-20
0
CIN
24.
Jay Cutler CHI
17/23
245
2
3
4
-32
-37
6
DET
25.
Alex Smith KC
14/24
156
2
2
1
-36
-53
17
OAK
26.
Derek Carr OAK
21/32
194
1
1
6
-46
-49
3
KC
27.
Aaron Rodgers GB
28/44
291
1
1
5
-56
-57
2
MIN
28.
Brock Osweiler DEN
14/22
232
1
2
1
-56
-56
0
SD
29.
Josh Freeman IND
15/28
149
1
1
1
-58
-70
12
TEN
30.
Brian Hoyer HOU
25/40
249
1
1
2
-68
-68
0
JAC
31.
Tom Brady NE
12/21
134
0
0
2
-68
-68
0
MIA
32.
Teddy Bridgewater MIN
10/19
99
0
1
3
-87
-75
-12
GB
33.
Drew Stanton ARI
8/18
84
0
2
2
-97
-97
0
SEA
34.
Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ
16/37
181
2
3
1
-118
-121
3
BUF
35.
Zach Mettenberger TEN
6/13
38
0
1
1
-142
-154
12
IND
36.
Blake Bortles JAC
17/32
239
0
2
8
-143
-143
0
HOU
37.
Austin Davis CLE
24/46
241
0
2
7
-211
-222
11
PIT


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Matt Forte CHI
17
76
0
3/3
34
1
54
28
27
DET
2.
Jeremy Hill CIN
16
96
1
2/3
19
0
43
34
9
BAL
3.
Rashad Jennings NYG
27
170
1
2/5
6
0
34
51
-18
PHI
4.
Shane Vereen NYG
4
12
0
6/8
72
0
33
-2
36
PHI
5.
Darren Sproles PHI
3
24
1
3/3
20
0
32
25
7
NYG


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Rashad Jennings NYG
27
170
1
2/5
6
0
34
51
-18
PHI
2.
Jeremy Hill CIN
16
96
1
2/3
19
0
43
34
9
BAL
3.
Karlos Williams BUF
6
24
1
3/3
3
0
26
33
-7
NYJ
4.
Christine Michael SEA
17
102
0
0/1
0
0
25
32
-6
ARI
5.
Spencer Ware KC
16
76
1
0/0
0
0
30
30
0
OAK


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Mike Gillislee BUF
24
28
0
0/1
0
0
-40
-36
-4
NYJ


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Devonta Freeman ATL
24
82
0
2/4
18
1
-37
-40
4
NO


Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Terrance Williams DAL
8
9
173
21.6
0
77
WAS
2.
Julio Jones ATL
9
11
149
16.6
0
54
NO
3.
DeVante Parker MIA
5
6
106
21.2
1
49
NE
4.
Jamison Crowder WAS
5
7
109
21.8
1
49
DAL
5.
Zach Ertz PHI
9
9
152
16.9
0
49
NYG


Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Darius Jennings CLE
6
10
46
7.7
0
-44
PIT

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 04 Jan 2016

37 comments, Last at 06 Jan 2016, 5:42pm by Vincent Verhei

Comments

1
by merlinofchaos :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 3:25pm

Interesting. Osweiler at 28 on the list harms the narrative that he wasn't doing that badly when he got pulled.

2
by deus01 :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 3:36pm

Well DYAR doesn't isolate the player from the other components of the team. So Osweiler will take a hit from the interceptions and the bad O-Line play. That's why in theory something like QBR is interesting (though there are a significant number of criticism for it as well).

San Diego also has a bad defense so that probably also is a significant negative.

3
by Hummingbird Cyborg :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 3:45pm

He did have two picks and a fumble sack. Of the two picks, one was caused by a ball going directly through the hands of a WR and the other was caused by him throwing while being taken to the ground.

Though, to be honest, even with his turnovers, it's surprising that his 10 ypa wasn't enough to put him in the positive territory.

8
by TimK :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 4:58pm

The second pick, his arm was hit as he was throwing, which is far more forgivable than throwing a pick as you are actually going down.

11
by ChrisS :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 5:06pm

I think conventional wisdom discounted the two interceptions and fumble as "not his fault". I thought only the deflection was really not on him, the others looked like missing the need to go to a hot read on an unblocked blitzer and holding the ball too long.

23
by merlinofchaos :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 6:04pm

It's easy to argue the unblocked blitzer is on him. As the QB its your job to read the defense and accurately deal with them.

He got caught out several times on unblocked blitzers and in the past that's been on the OL but yesterday I think it was on Brock.

26
by Hummingbird Cyborg :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 6:45pm

The unblocked blitzer seems like something that a more experienced QB might have read better. The tip through Norwood's hands was definitely a well thrown ball even if maybe he could have thrown it with a bit more touch. The other interception, I thought that was just Schofield getting beat and wasn't on Osweiler at all.

28
by doktarr :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 7:40pm

For sure Osweiler should take a share of the blame for his turnovers. Heck, even the one that went through the receiver's hands was zipped at him much harder than needed on a crossing route like that.

That said, all three were hard-luck plays - very often you could make the mistakes Osweiler made on those plays and end up with 1/2 and a sack to show for it. So while I wouldn't say he has no blame, he was playing better than the 3 turnovers would indicate.

Opponent adjustments also have a big role in his numbers being so depressed, as the Chargers defense is #22 against the pass.

29
by otros :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 10:10pm

Well, we say the LT block the blindside for a reason.

4
by Guest789 :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 4:08pm

DYAR is a counting stat, so playing less than a full game will disadvantage him as well.

7
by andrew :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 4:53pm

Not in terms of being positive or negative. It would accumulate positive if he was being positive on the plays he was in, and the same for negative.

In this case, seeing as he was negative, staying in would have make his DYAR worse if he continued to play at the same level he had before going out. The fact he was taken out may have prevented him from continuing to plummet.

Being removed did prevent him from having the opportunity to turn it around, but apart from that did not disadvantage him, and may have helped his DYAR relatively speaking.

9
by deus01 :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 5:03pm

Well it depends. If you consider his turnovers to be random since they weren't really his fault and assuming that most of negative DYAR is a result of them then he had a cluster of bad luck in the first half and he may have been able to work his way out of in the second if he had been allowed to keep playing. You would need to see how much the turnovers contributed to DYAR in order to see if this is the case or not.

30
by andrew :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 11:37pm

Whatever it was, if he played the second half exactly the same as he played the first, luck and all, then he would have had presumably about twice as bad a DYAR.

5
by Hummingbird Cyborg :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 4:18pm

It's astounding that Mettenberger got to -142 DYAR on only 14 attempts. I mean, yeah, I'd expect a terrible DVOA and I'm sure the Colt's defense helps, but dayum!

18
by Tom Gower :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 5:36pm

Hey, when you gain 14 yards on 14 attempts to pass, you're going to have things like that happen (the run appeared to be a QB draw).

6
by andrew :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 4:49pm

Peyton intentionally played only well enough so he could be #18.

10
by mehllageman56 :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 5:04pm

Not sure if this is the correct place to put this comment, but Geno Smith just assured himself of a trade out of New York. Talking honestly about wanting to start next year when you are the back-up and under contract isn't going to fly under Bowles and Maccagnan. So, expect a Fitzpatrick resigning in spite of yesterday's disaster.

13
by Guest789 :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 5:21pm

Really? Isn't that the attitude you'd want to see from a guy like that - the desire to compete? I'd be much more worried if he said that he was happy to laze around as a backup.

16
by mehllageman56 :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 5:31pm

That's totally the attitude I'd want, and he did stop short of asking for a trade. But Todd Bowles wants the team to keep their mouth shut, which is a really good idea when dealing with the New York media. For instance, Darrelle Revis didn't talk to media yesterday. He was probably mad at the game plan, which meant he gave Watkins a lot of room, not allowing a lot of deep passes but plenty of third down conversions. How do I know that? I don't, because Revis, being a professional, said nothing to media about it except he was disappointed about the loss.

So we'll see. It makes sense for the Jets to keep Geno around (only making 1.5 million for a reasonable back up quarterback) in tight cap year.

12
by Led :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 5:16pm

Interesting that Buffalo has one of the top 5 RBs (rushing) and the worst RB (rushing) this week. I wonder how common that is; pretty rare I would imagine. I can't say enough about Karlos Williams. I know he has had some health problems that limited his touches, but man oh man he's got as much talent as any RB in the league right now. (He was 6th in rushing DYAR on only 93 carries!) Kudos to Matt Waldman for spotting that talent early on: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/futures/2013/futures-fsu-rb-karlos-will....

15
by ChrisS :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 5:25pm

And the crappy RB had 4 times as many rush opportunities. Don't coaches watch the game?

17
by mehllageman56 :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 5:32pm

Williams got hurt. Gillislee got more carries after that.

25
by Oligator83 :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 6:08pm

I'm pretty sure it must have happened a lot during the Thomas Jones-Jamaal Charles era in KC... also with the mediocre back getting the most touches...

14
by ChrisS :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 5:24pm

Stafford ended the season with 807 DYAR. Based on the weekly QR columns (so not based on current defense DVOA's) he had -110 in the first 8 games and 917 in the last eight games. Should I be optimistic or is this just more Stafford variance/erratic performance? I think part of it is that the first half schedule was a lot harder than the second half and the D in DYAR may not adjust enough for the effect of very good defense on QB performance.

21
by tuluse :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 5:52pm

I think part of this is the coaching change. Lombardi was trying to stick square pegs in a round hole. You have Stafford, Megatron, and Tate, maybe try stretching the defense deep?

32
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 01/05/2016 - 10:35am

I think an even bigger factor than playcalling was simplifying the blocking scheme, and replacing LaAdrian Waddle with Micheal Ola at right tackle. Stafford's pass protection improved from astoundingly awful in games 1-8 to mediocre in games 9-16

36
by ChrisS :: Wed, 01/06/2016 - 2:17pm

Good point, getting rid of Waddle was definitely addition by subtraction.

19
by MilkmanDanimal :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 5:37pm

Winston is tenth. Wouldn't have seen that one coming.

20
by Vincent Verhei :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 5:47pm

Carolina's defense is mighty, mighty good.

22
by tuluse :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 5:54pm

So Stafford won the NFCN passing DYAR crown this year. The first non-Rodgers winner since Favre of 2009.

With how all the QBs looked this year, they might be the best quarterbacked division next year. Not much of a black and blue.

24
by MilkmanDanimal :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 6:07pm

Depends on how you feel about Cutler, or Bridgewater's ability to start throwing with a little more consistency. The NFC South could be the best if Ryan returns to form, Brees doesn't fall off a cliff, and Winston builds on an excellent rookie year. I thought about the NFC East with a returning Romo, Eli with lots of targets, Cousins maybe not pulling a Nick Foles and burning out after one year, and then I thought about Philly and stopped thinking about the NFC East a whole lot.

27
by Thok :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 7:39pm

The nice thing about Washington winning the NFC East this year is that people won't expect them to dominate the division next year, like they did of this year's Cowboys and last year's Eagles.

31
by herewegobrownie... :: Mon, 01/04/2016 - 11:46pm

Wonder when the last time Green Bay was winless at Lambeau in division play, let alone also undefeated in the div on the road.

33
by ammek :: Tue, 01/05/2016 - 10:40am

Ah, the advantages of playing in a division with the Lions! Actually, the last time Green Bay lost at home to Detroit, in 1991, it also lost at home to Chicago and Minnesota. However, in those days, the NFC Central contained a fifth team: the orange-uniformed yakety sax Buccaneers, whom the 4-12 Packers beat home and away that year. (The Packers did not play all of their home games at Lambeau during that period either, although none of the divisional games in 1991 took place in Milwaukee.)

The last year the Packers were winless in divisional home games would be 1973, although they did tie Detroit (this was the season before overtime was introduced). Equally, in 1958 – or as Packer fans know it, Year 1 BL (Before Lombardi) – Green Bay was 0-5-1 in divisional home games at City Stadium, with the tie game coming against ... Detroit! So the last (and only?) time the Packers lost all its home divisional games was, I think, in 1951, with a knackered Tony Canadeo at halfback.

34
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 01/05/2016 - 2:29pm

As a Lions fan, I definitely miss the Lindy Infante era!

35
by ryan5581 :: Tue, 01/05/2016 - 3:40pm

Just curious where Antonio Brown landed this week. I assume the early fumble kept him from the top 5, not to mention opponent adjustment.

37
by Vincent Verhei :: Wed, 01/06/2016 - 5:42pm

11th. The fumble hurt him, as did incomplete passes on third-and-3 and second-and-2.