Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

Most Recent FO Features

JohnsonKer18.jpg

» Seventh Day Adventure: Week 13

The biggest game this week is the Iron Bowl, where the playoff hopes of Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia hang in the balance.

20 Sep 2016

Week 2 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

Nine months in, 2016 has not been kind to Adrian Peterson. In January, it was his fumble in the playoffs that set up what proved to be a game-winning field goal for Seattle. Over the summer, Peterson explained that offseason activities were so boring that he was considering retirement. Then in August, Peterson and the rest of the Vikings watched as Teddy Bridgewater tore his knee apart in practice. With Peterson's career nearing its end and his window for a Super Bowl closing, the Vikings made a desperate move and traded for Sam Bradford. In the short term, that move might have saved Minnesota's season, but it hasn't done much for Peterson. With Shaun Hill at quarterback, Peterson had a terrible day in Week 1 against Tennessee, and he was having another lousy outing in Week 2 against Green Bay even before he went down with a knee injury. On Monday, it was announced that Peterson had torn his meniscus, and would likely be out for several weeks.

Peterson's age and latest knee injury would be enough to have us questioning his future, but let's not forget that even before he was hurt, he had been struggling. He has gained only 50 yards on 31 carries this season, an average of 1.6 yards per run that is second-worst in the NFL. And his two game total of minus-40 DYAR is the worst of any running back in the league this year, unusual territory for a back of Peterson's caliber. Is that a statistical fluke, or a sign that Peterson's inevitable decline has begun?

To find out, we went back to Week 2 in each of the past ten seasons to see who was last in DYAR at that time, how they looked by the end of the year, and how they fared over the rest of their careers. Are any of these players similar to Peterson?

2006: Hey, remember that time we put Kevin Jones on the cover of our book? And said he would win a rushing title? Well, can't win 'em all. Jones never came close to matching the 1,133 yards he put up as a rookie in 2004. Two games into Detroit's 2006 season, Jones was averaging 3.04 yards per carry, with three fumbles in only 26 carries and minus-52 DYAR. Things did not turn around for Jones that season, as he finished with only 689 yards and minus-104 DYAR. After that season, he gained 690 yards in two more years with the Lions and Bears.

2007: In his second NFL season, Reggie Bush was still fitting into the NFL, and the Saints were still trying to figure out how best to use him. His 22 carries through two weeks produced only 65 yards and minus-47 DYAR. He struggled through that season, finishing with 581 yards and minus-72 DYAR, but Bush had enough other skills to last a long time in the NFL. In nine more seasons with the Saints, Dolphins, Lions, 49ers, and Bills, Bush has rushed for 4,343 more yards and counting. (Yes, Bush is still active -- he has three carries for minus-4 yards in Buffalo.)

2008: One of the all-time first-round draft busts, Cincinatti's Chris Perry rushed for only 337 yards in his first three seasons, then got off to a terrible start in Year 4, with 40 carries for 106 yards (a 2.95-yard average), three fumbles, and minus-71 DYAR after two weeks. Perry finished the year with 269 yards and a 2.59-yard average, with minus-149 DYAR, one of the ten worst totals on record in the last category. He never played again, retiring with a career total of 606 rushing yards, second-lowest of any running back drafted in the first round this century (more on this later).

2009: Steve Slaton was one of the surprising rookies of 2008, a third-round draft pick out of West Virginia who finished sixth in the NFL in rushing after gaining 1,282 yards for the Texans. He would never again come close to matching those numbers. Two games into 2009, he was averaging 1.96 yards per rush, with three fumbles in only 26 carries and minus-74 DYAR. He continued to nose-dive, finishing the year with 437 yards and minus-122 DYAR. He would last only two more seasons in the league, rushing for 177 yards for the Texans and Dolphins.

2010: Like Slaton, Cadillac Williams was a hit as a rookie, gaining 1,178 yards on the ground with Tampa Bay and winning the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Williams' decline wasn't as sharp as Slaton's but his rookie season was unquestionably his best. By Week 2 of 2010, Williams was averaging 2.57 yards on 49 carries, with minus-62 DYAR. By season's end, he had gained only 437 yards and minus-65 DYAR. Williams would play only one more season, gaining 361 yards for the Rams in 2011.

2011: After four straight thousand-yard seasons in San Francisco, Frank Gore had struggled with injuries in 2010, gaining only 853 yards in 11 games. He followed that with a rotten two-game start in 2011, averaging only 2.52 yards on 46 carries and compiling minus-47 DYAR, and it looked like his career might have been coming to a rapid end. When all was said and done, though he still finished the season below replacement level at minus-17 DYAR, he had amassed 1,211 yards on the ground. He has since gained 4,518 more yards in five-plus seasons with the 49ers and Colts, and has gained 103 yards in Indianapolis this season.

2012: Shonn Greene gained 117 yards on 38 carries in two weeks for the Jets, but two fumbles in Week 1 dropped him to minus-71 DYAR. He fumbled just once the rest of the year and finished with 1,063 yards and 49 DYAR, the only runner on this list to finish above replacement level after his slow start. But Greene was 27 in 2012, and like most running backs he was done by age 30, gaining 687 yards in two more seasons with Tennessee.

2013: Remember when we said Chris Perry had the second-lowest yardage total of any first-round draft pick this century? Say hi to David Wilson! Wilson gained only 358 yards as a rookie in 2012 with the Giants, and his second season began with 14 carries, 36 yards, two fumbles, and minus-53 DYAR. He barely played after that, finishing the season with only 146 yards and minus-40 DYAR. That's a career total of 504 yards for the 32nd overall pick in 2012. For comparison's sake, Ezekiel Elliott, this year's only first-round running back, has 134 yards in two games. At that rate, he will pass Wilson's career total against Cleveland in Week 9.

2014: A second-round pick out of Stanford in 2010, Toby Gerhart played well for many years as a backup to Peterson in Minnesota, averaging 4.2 yards per carry in four years with the Vikings. In 2014, the Jaguars signed Gerhart to a deal worth up to $10.5 million in hopes he could maintain that success as a full-time starter. Well, he couldn't. Gerhart gained only 50 yards on 24 carries in his first two games in Jacksonville, good for minus-37 DYAR. Gerhart was benched for Denard Robinson midway through the season, and finished with only 326 yards and minus-35 DYAR. He rushed for only 44 yards in seven games in 2015 and was released after that season, and remains unsigned.

2015: We broke down DeMarco Murray's woes in Philadelphia one year ago in this space, when Murray was stuffed for no gain or a loss eight times in his first 21 carries. To that point in the season, he was averaging 0.52 yards per carry (not a typo) and had amassed minus-63 DYAR. Things improved greatly after that, but Murray still finished with 702 yards and minus-29 DYAR. Murray was traded to Tennessee after the season; he has 131 yards with the Titans so far in 2016.

So in ten prior seasons, only twice did the last-place runner after Week 2 finish with a thousand yards that year, and only two went over a thousand total yards in future seasons either. On the other hand, the one who did both, Frank Gore, is the only player mentioned here who can really be fairly compared to Peterson. Gore was also three years younger in 2011 than Peterson is now, but he has shown that special backs are capable of bouncing back from bad starts -- and Adrian Peterson is certainly a special back.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ
24/34
374
1
0
1
176
173
3
BUF
Fitzpatrick was at his best on the second, third, and fourth drives of the game. On those three possessions, he went 10-of-11 for 167 yards and nine first downs, plus a DPI for 26 more yards and another first down. The Jets scored 17 points on those three drives. When your defense makes Ryan Fitzpatrick look like the best quarterback in the league, there is only one reasonable course of action: fire your offensive coordinator.
2.
Matt Ryan ATL
26/34
396
3
1
1
174
174
0
OAK
Ryan killed the Raiders with the deep ball. He threw four passes that traveled at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage, and all four were caught, for 146 total yards. Julio Jones only had one of those catches, while Aldrick Robinson had one and rookie tight end Austin Hooper had two.
3.
Derek Carr OAK
34/45
299
3
0
1
147
145
2
ATL
The more trouble the Raiders were in, the better Carr played. When they were down by more than 8 points, he went 6-of-8 for 75 yards, with every throw going for a first down, including a touchdown. When they were down by 1 to 8 points, he went 21-of-27 for 187 yards and 10 first downs, including two touchdowns, plus DPIs of 36 and 13 yards, with one sack. But when they were tied or (briefly) ahead, Carr went 7-of-10 for 37 yards and only one first down.
4.
Jimmy Garoppolo NE
18/27
234
3
0
0
144
144
0
MIA
Garoppolo was nearly perfect on third downs against Miami, completing 6-of-7 passes for 90 yards. Five of those completions picked up first downs. The other one would have, but Danny Amendola fumbled the ball away after a 15-yard gain on third-and-8.
5.
Eli Manning NYG
32/41
368
0
0
2
141
141
0
NO
Manning was very good over most of the field, but horrible in the red zone, where he went 2-of-5 for 12 yards and no first downs. He threw incomplete passes on third-and-1, third-and-2, and fourth-and-2 inside the 3-yard line.
6.
Carson Palmer ARI
18/31
308
3
0
1
131
131
0
TB
Palmer only threw four passes to the middle of the field in this game, all with 4 yards or less to go for a first down. He completed three of them for 14 total yards and three first downs, including two touchdowns.
7.
Ryan Tannehill MIA
32/44
389
2
2
0
130
121
9
NE
Every single pass Tannehill threw against New England came with Miami trailing, and 39 of them came with Miami down by at least two scores. The sweet spot for Tannehill was on throws that traveled 11 to 25 yards downfield. At that range, he went 10-of-12 for 200 yards and 10 first downs, including two touchdowns. A 13th pass at that range resulted in a DPI for 20 more yards.
8.
Cam Newton CAR
24/39
353
4
1
1
101
91
10
SF
For all his strengths as a football player these days, Newton still struggles with accuracy and touch on short passes. On throws to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, Newton went 6-of-11 for 17 yards and no first downs.
9.
Andy Dalton CIN
31/54
367
1
0
1
91
91
-1
PIT
In a game the Bengals lost by eight points, they really could have used better red zone production from their quarterback. Inside the Pittsburgh 20, Dalton went 2-of-7 for 8 yards and zero first downs, though he did pick up a first down and 9 yards on third-and-6 with a DPI.
10.
Dak Prescott DAL
22/30
292
0
0
4
87
76
11
WAS
The Cowboys got a win on Sunday, but Prescott also struggled in the red zone, going 2-of-6 for 9 yards and no first downs, with a sack. But, like Dalton, Prescott did get a red zone DPI, resulting in 6 yards and a first down on first-and-goal from the 7.
11.
Philip Rivers SD
17/24
220
4
0
3
86
81
6
JAC
Rivers played best between his 40 and the Jacksonville 20. In that part of the field, he went 7-of-8 for 165 yards and six first downs, including touchdowns of 44 and 45 yards. A ninth pass resulted in a DPI for 13 more yards.
12.
Tyrod Taylor BUF
18/29
287
3
1
0
83
69
13
NYJ
For 45 minutes of game time, Taylor was about as boom-and-bust a quarterback as you'll ever see. At the end of the third quarter, he was 10-of-18 for 204 yards. Only three of those completions went for third downs, but two of those were touchdowns of 84 and 71 yards.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Trevor Siemian DEN
22/33
266
0
1
1
81
79
2
IND
Siemian threw only one deep pass against Carolina in Week 1, and that pass was intercepted. He was much more agressive against a Colts secondary that was missing its top five cornerbacks. Indianapolis' replacements knew they couldn't cover bona fide NFL receivers downfield, and it looks like they barely even tried. Siemian threw three deep passes against the Colts, and all three resulted in DPIs of 18, 16, and 21 yards.
14.
Sam Bradford MIN
22/30
286
2
0
4
63
63
0
GB
Bradford was very good at getting big plays on early downs, but he wasn't too hot at keeping drives alive. On third and fourth downs, he went 9-of-10 for 85 yards, which sounds great, but only four of those completions picked up first downs. An 11th throw resulted in a DPI and 12 more yards, but he was also sacked three times.
15.
Kirk Cousins WAS
28/45
364
1
1
2
50
39
11
DAL
Another quarterback who lost a close game due at least in part to red zone troubles. Inside the Dallas 20, he went 4-of-11 for 28 yards with one touchdown and another first down. Early in the fourth quarter, Washington had a first-and-goal at the 6, up 3, where a touchdown likely would have put the game away. Cousins then went incomplete, incomplete, interception.
16.
Marcus Mariota TEN
25/33
238
2
1
3
43
41
2
DET
Tennessee's first drive of the second half ended with a Mariota interception. Up to that point, he had gone 12-of-18 for 102 yards with almost as many sacks (three) as first downs (four). From that point forward, he went 13-of-15 for 136 yards and seven first downs, including both touchdowns, plus DPIs of 5 and 8 yards.
17.
Carson Wentz PHI
21/33
190
1
0
2
43
43
-1
CHI
18.
Case Keenum LARM
18/30
239
0
0
3
31
30
1
SEA
The theme this week seems to be "quarterbacks who failed in scoring range." Once crossing the Seattle 40, Keenum was useless, going 2-of-5 for 6 yards and no first downs, plus a sack for a loss of 9. Yes, in six plays his total contribution was a loss of yards. The Rams would literally have been better off had he just spiked the ball for an incompletion every time.
19.
Joe Flacco BAL
25/45
302
2
2
0
24
24
0
CLE
Third downs: 10-of-15, 129 yards, with every completion going for a first down.
20.
Drew Brees NO
29/44
263
1
0
2
17
17
0
NYG
Third-down struggles: 6-of-11, 53 yards, three first downs, two sacks.
21.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
19/37
259
3
2
1
10
3
7
CIN
22.
Brian Hoyer CHI
9/12
78
0
0
0
10
10
0
PHI
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Russell Wilson SEA
22/35
256
0
0
2
3
12
-9
LARM
Hey, look! Here's another quarterback who couldn't finish drives! On Los Angeles' half of the field, Wilson went 5-of-10 for 35 yards with just one first down, one sack, and one fumble.
24.
Jacoby Brissett NE
6/9
92
0
0
2
-10
-19
10
MIA
25.
Josh McCown CLE
20/33
260
2
2
3
-16
-9
-7
BAL
Whatever McCown's strengths might be, they do not include accuracy on the deep ball. He threw 12 deep balls against Baltimore, with the Ravens coming down with as many interceptions (two) as the Browns had receptions, though one of those receptions was a 31-yard touchdown.
26.
Blaine Gabbert SF
17/36
243
2
2
2
-25
-35
10
CAR
Midway through the fourth quarter, Gabbert hit Vance McDonald for a 75-yard touchdown to pull the 49ers within seven. Gabbert's next seven dropbacks included four incompletions, two interceptions, and one sack, and that was pretty much that.
27.
Blake Bortles JAC
31/50
329
2
2
2
-34
-53
19
SD
Bortles' two touchdowns both came with Jacksonville down 30-plus points in the fourth quarter. I'm stealing this stat from Scott Kacsmar, because it's insane: Blake Bortles is now the NFL's all-time leader in garbage time touchdown passes now has 21 touchdowns while down by multiple scores in the second half in games his team has lost. He breaks a tie with Johnny Unitas and Tom Brady, who had 20 each. Unitas played in 211 NFL games. Brady is momentarily stuck at 223. Bortles has played 32.(NOTE: I misinterpreted Scott's Tweet. Bortles has passed Brady and Unitas, which is still amazing, but he still has a long way to go to break Brett Favre's record of 53. I regret the error.)
28.
Matthew Stafford DET
22/40
260
1
1
4
-37
-46
9
TEN
29.
Jay Cutler CHI
12/17
157
0
1
3
-60
-60
0
PHI
30.
Aaron Rodgers GB
20/36
213
1
1
5
-64
-80
16
MIN
Four of Rodgers' sacks (and one of his two fumbles) came as he unsuccessfuly tried to rally the Packers to a second-half comeback.
31.
Brock Osweiler HOU
19/33
268
1
2
2
-69
-69
0
KC
The screen pass is basically not a weapon in the Houston playbook, or at least it wasn't against Kansas City. Osweiler only threw two passes to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, completing both for 14 total yards and one first down.
32.
Alex Smith KC
20/37
186
0
0
4
-95
-91
-4
HOU
Add Smith to the list of guys who just couldn't finish. On Houston's half of the field, he went 7-of-14 for 52 yards with only two first downs, plus a 12-yard DPI and one sack. He did not pick up a first down on the Texans' side of the 50 until Kansas City was down by 10 points midway through the fourth quarter.
33.
Andrew Luck IND
21/40
197
1
1
5
-114
-125
11
DEN
Ironically, Luck played pretty well in the end zone (3-of-6, 20 yards, three first downs and a score), but had big problems at the other end of the field. At or inside his own 25, he went 4-of-9 for 38 yards and two first downs, with one sack-fumble that was returned for a big Denver touchdown.
34.
Jameis Winston TB
27/52
243
1
4
3
-173
-174
1
ARI
Tampa Bay's oversized receiving corps is supposed to specialize in deep balls, but that sure wasn't the case against rizona. Winston threw 13 deep balls against the Cardinals, completing only one (hey, at least it was a 19-yard touchdown) while three were intercepted. The last of those interceptions, though, came on the last play of the game. We're considering it a Hail Mary and treating it as an incompletion, not an interception, for the purposes of DVOA and DYAR.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Latavius Murray OAK
8
57
1
6/6
44
0
54
35
19
ATL
In just eight carries, Murray picked up five first downs, including gains of 18 and 15 yards and a goal-line touchdown. Meanwhile, he was hit for no gain just once. He had three more first downs through the air.
2.
Giovani Bernard CIN
5
17
0
9/11
101
1
37
1
37
PIT
Bernard had three first-down catches, including a 25-yard touchdown. His only successful carry was a 10-yard gain on third-and-1.
3.
David Johnson ARI
12
45
0
3/5
98
0
35
-2
38
TB
On the ground, Johnson had just one first down, nothing longer than 10 yards, and was hit for no gain three times. All three of his catches went for first downs, though, on gains of 16, 24, and 58.
4.
Melvin Gordon SD
24
102
1
3/3
18
0
35
30
5
JAC
Seven first downs on the ground, with three gains of 10 or more yards. He was stuffed for no gain or a loss five times. His biggest catch was an 11-yard gain on second-and-9.
5.
Devonta Freeman ATL
17
93
0
0/0
0
0
32
32
0
OAK
Six first downs on the ground, with three gains of 10 or more yards, while getting stuffed for a loss just once.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Latavius Murray OAK
8
57
1
6/6
44
0
54
35
19
ATL
2.
Devonta Freeman ATL
17
93
0
0/0
0
0
32
32
0
OAK
3.
Melvin Gordon SD
24
102
1
3/3
18
0
35
30
5
JAC
4.
Matt Forte NYJ
30
100
3
2/3
9
0
24
30
-5
BUF
With three red zone touchdowns, Forte was the kind of goal-line threat every team could have used this week, even if he was stuffed for no gain or a loss six times. Still, when your defense makes the 30-year-old Forte look like he's 24 again, there is only one reasonable course of action: fire your offensive coordinator.
5.
Matt Jones WAS
13
61
1
1/1
4
0
29
25
4
DAL
Nothing earth-shattering here, just two first downs and nothign longer than his 14-yard touchdown. But he had a median gain of 4 yards, and only two stuffs for no gain.


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
T.J. Yeldon JAC
7
28
0
7/10
10
0
-35
3
-38
SD
Yeldon did have a 15-yard run, but only two of his completions were successful and five of them (!) lost yardage. Only 12 players had five catches that lost yardage in all 16 games in 2015; nobody had more than eight. He did pick up 14 yards on a DPI.


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
DeAngelo Williams PIT
32
94
0
4/5
38
1
0
-28
28
CIN
Almost literally going from the penthouse to the outhouse, Williams was first in rushing value last week. This week, not so much. Only four first downs, nothing longer than 11 yards, nine stuffs for no gain or a loss, and eight more that gained exactly 1 yard. Yes, his median gain was just 1 yard.


Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Stefon Diggs MIN
9
10
182
20.2
1
87
GB
Only three of Diggs' catches failed to produce first downs: a 9-yard catch on second-and-13, a 14-yard catch on third-and-20, and a 15-yard catch on third-and-27. He also picked up a 12-yard DPI on third-and-6.
2.
Travis Benjamin SD
6
6
115
19.2
2
68
JAC
Benjamin's DYAR total includes minus-2 rushing DYAR for his only carry, a 1-yard loss. As a receiver, he had touchdowns of 45 and 6 yards, another catch that went for 43, and an 11-yard gain on first-and-10.
3.
Kelvin Benjamin CAR
7
9
108
15.4
2
66
SF
Six total first downs on the day, including touchdowns of 10 and 9 yards, plus a pair of 25-yard gains.
4.
Eric Decker NYJ
6
8
126
21.0
1
66
BUF
Decker's shortest catch was a 5-yard touchdown; each of his others gained at least 17 yards and a first down. When your defense makes Eric Decker look like one of the best wide receivers in the league there's only one reasonable course of action: fire your offensive coordinator. (If you're not sick of this joke yet, don't worry -- I'm going to go back to it whenever anyone has a big day against the Bills, which means I'll probably be going back to it all year.)
5.
Julio Jones ATL
5
5
106
21.2
1
55
OAK
Three first downs, on gains of 48, 21 (for a touchdown), and 20 yards.


Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Antonio Brown PIT
4
11
39
9.8
0
-43
CIN
Brown is legitimately one of the biggest DYAR stars of all time. He is one of four receivers to ever top 500 DYAR in a season twice. The others: Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, and Jerry Rice (who did it three times). But, well, it was that kind of day for the Pittsburgh offense. The only positive for Brown is that he did pick up two first downs, with a 16-yard gain on third-and-6 and a 17-yard gain on third-and-7.

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 20 Sep 2016

148 comments, Last at 21 Sep 2016, 12:01pm by dank067

Comments

1
by ammek :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 7:41am

Winston played Arizona, not Atlanta.

Was this week Aaron Rodgers' worst game by (unadjusted) passing YAR? Or was Denver last season worse? Either way, Week 2 wasn't pretty for NFC North quarterbacks who have been with their team longer than three weeks.

PS I'm not yet tired, and indeed am showing no signs of tiring, of the Bills joke.

23
by Noah Arkadia :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 10:07am

As bad as Rodgers numbers might look, I still came away from the game absolutely amazed at the things he does. That scramble where he set up his blockers as if he'd had a week to plan it, and the 3rd and what, 18? 20? It's not just he converted or how, it's that we've all come to expect stuff like that from him. He makes a routine of the spectacular.

2
by andrew :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 7:52am

For wide receivers, its all about the Benjamins.

5
by Ben :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 8:02am

Which is also the team name of the guy leading my fantasy league due to those two.

3
by andrew :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 7:55am

I'm glad FO has some common sense, official NFL stats show Diggs with two failed targets.

Yes, they are counting the last play of the game where Bradford threw a pass OOB whose only purpose was to eat 2-3 seconds of time in the air... as a pass targeted at Diggs who was the closest player (he actually did run past the line of scrimmage).

I knew we disregarded certain desperation heaves at ends of games and halves, this makes perfect sense as well.

11
by jmaron :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 9:19am

funny thing about that last play is Diggs was wide open GB's dbs knew what was up and didn't bother to cover the deep pattern. Bradford could have flipped it to Diggs for a long TD.

97
by Guest789 :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:20pm

I think they only let up once the ball was in the air and it was obvious it was going way out of bounds

4
by Ben :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 8:00am

How the heck was Rawls not the worst RB of the week?

20
by Never Surrender :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 10:00am

Hmm, perhaps he didn't have enough touches/targets? Seven carries, 3 receptions. (I don't know how much he was targeted.)

6
by BJR :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 8:11am

The atrocious weather and field conditions in Pittsburgh probably excuse Brown. By that token, I'm quite surprised by Dalton's high ranking. I guess he accumulated yards and avoided turnovers/sacks, but 23 incompletions is a lot. It felt like a struggle for him most of the day whilst watching the game.

7
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 8:41am

"Almost literally going from the penthouse to the outhouse, Williams was first in rushing value last week. This week, not so much. Only four first downs, nothing longer than 11 yards, nine stuffs for no gain or a loss, and eight more that gained exactly 1 yards. Yes, his median gain was just 1 yard. "

makes no sense

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

9
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 9:02am

I think it's time to quit pumping these things out to meet deadlines and start actually thinking about what is being written. Not only can you be better than ESPEENORS and CBullShit, you should be.

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

18
by nosoop4u :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 9:51am

32 carries, 17 of which were for 1 yard or less, so the median is 1 yard. Median is basically the middle number of a sorted list. So if you have carries of -5, -2, -1, 0, and 58 yards, the median run is -1 even though you have 50 yards on 5 carries.

22
by RickD :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 10:05am

Somebody doesn't understand what "median" means, apparently.

34
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 11:02am

Somebody took a huge ASSumption about what was my intent, and --- whiffed.

I'll give you a second chance.

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

50
by Noah Arkadia :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 11:52am

I'm sorry, but I don't think anyone knows what you were trying to say. You should actually just say it instead of having everyone guess. I don't see the point in making a judgement without giving any explanations.

78
by ZDNeal :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 1:22pm

I think his point is that median is a terrible stat to use here. At least, I think it's a really stupid one to use here.

92
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:09pm

That's a separate point (that certainly has merit), but alas was not the much simpler one I was going for.

If you are going to bin carries (rushes) into gains and losses as the author did (at first), then you can't then backpedal and claim his median gain was 1 yard when it wasn't. (Yes, his median carry {rushing attempt} was....)

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

110
by andrew :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:45pm

It made sense to me. All the statements were meant to illustrate how bad a game it was, and the median part was in a different sentence than the part talking about how many were a gain or loss.

Still, always room for improvement. Could you write us a sample improved paragraph in support of the premise ("Williams sucked this week")?

120
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 3:31pm

Leading all players in the game in "median gain" rushing was HoF and all world agile speedster Ben 'FleetofFoot' Roethlisberger, setting a new high mark of 14 yard "median gain". The Steelers will demote Williams and his pedestrian 1 yard "median gain" to the bench next week.

In all seriousness, I would rewrite the original paragraph either to be consistent over all runs, or over all gains.

I have an issue with using median to begin with, but as long as it's done consistently, my original complaint will be dismissed, for now.

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

56
by Independent George :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 12:25pm

If nobody here understands what your intent was, perhaps it's because you were unclear and not because the rest of us failed reading comprehension?

145
by bravehoptoad :: Wed, 09/21/2016 - 10:59am

I can't tell you how delighted I am to be given a second chance to interpret your intent. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

19
by jtr :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 9:56am

What makes no sense? The Steelers ground game was efficient last week and inefficient this week. That said, I don't think this was necessarily Williams fault. It looked like he had the same basic issue that screwed up Demarco Murray last year: he's not well suited for all the shotgun running they had him doing. We can read between the lines a little bit and try to give him some credit for passing the eyeball test, but ultimately all FO's stats can do on the matter is say "Deangelo Williams was really inefficient on Sunday."

8
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 8:49am

Peterson didn't go over 370 carries last year, but he probably endured contact as if he had, as bad as the blocking was. I hope he hasn't gone into steep decline, but it wouldn't shock me if he has. I think Michaels said the other night that he has had 13 starting qbs in his career.

12
by jmaron :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 9:20am

and so many of them were gems

26
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 10:19am

Walter Payton, for the first 2/3 of his career is the post merger gold standard for a running back having a great career, surrounded by dreck, and Peterson doesn't come close to matching that. Barry Sanders is often mentioned in that conversation as well, however, and I think a case can be made for Peterson in that match-up. Except for the one year with a non-ruined Favre, I'd say Sanders had the better teammates, especially after 2009. Peterson did have a terrific o-line for his first 4 years, but I'd take Gagliano, Peete, Krieg, Kramer, Mitchell, and Batch, over Jackson, Frerotte, Holcomb, Bollinger, ruined Favre, Cassell, and Ponder, especially when you consider the quality of Lions receivers Sanders played with, compared with Peterson. From 2010 through 2013, the Vikings had crappy o-lines, crappy quarterbacking, crappy receivers, and and crappy defenses. Peterson's 2012 season was a damned miracle.

36
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 11:16am

" but I'd take Gagliano, Peete, Krieg, Kramer, Mitchell, and Batch, over Jackson, Frerotte, Holcomb, Bollinger, ruined Favre, Cassell, and Ponder"

Despite your best attempts, you have to take Andre Ware, too.

DET definitely has better receivers, but I would argue Peterson had the better O-line (although not vastly different) and Sanders never had anyone like Kleinsasser.

121
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 3:37pm

From 2007-2009, 2007-2008 especially, the Vikings o-line was really, really, good, with two guys, Birk and Hutchinson, who are credible HOF candidates, and Kleinsasser, who, as you imply, was an all-timer as an edge-setting tight end. After 2009, however, the o-line play has been dreadful. The receiving, of course, has been more uniformly dreadful, outside of Sidney Rice's 2009, and what Diggs offered since last year.

111
by andrew :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:48pm

and Peterson also had Spergon Wynn and Joe Webb.

115
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 3:03pm

Spergon the Sturgeon was out of the league 5 years when Peterson was a rookie. I forgot about The Webbster, however.

133
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 5:40pm

I would take Joe Webb over Ware.

Peete's best work came against the Lions.

Mitchell was pretty solid for a couple of years, and Kramer somehow managed to be the best QB in the 90s for two franchises -- neither of which appreciated him.

137
by tuluse :: Wed, 09/21/2016 - 12:36am

I think you mean neither of which he could stay healthy for.

118
by andrew :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 3:18pm

duplicate (and half wrong) comment.

69
by Tundrapaddy :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 12:58pm

I'm pretty sure he's done, Will. Even last season, it was starting to look like McKinnon might be the best back in the Vikings backfield, although Peterson still showed 'flashes' of what's made him special. Look at his 2015 stats, and game on game, see what it looks like when you subtract out the 'longest run'. (Basically, if they fed him the rock and let him slam into the line often enough, he'd eventually break into the secondary; but he needed 20+ carries to do so).

I'd bet his current injury amounts to 'addition by subtraction' for the Minnesota offense.

10
by Trogdor :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 9:09am

I can see Elliott getting 504 yards against Cleveland in week 9.

64
by Todd S. :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 12:47pm

Very nice! I wanted to make sure I read the comments before posting a similar zing. Hmmm...both of the teams I root for the most, Browns and Colts, look like they are headed for long seasons. At least Colts play in AFC South!

70
by Tundrapaddy :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 1:01pm

'At least Colts play in AFC South!'

True, but Houston is now the cream of that division. Osweiler only needs to be 'average and careful' at QB to win with their defense.

And I don't know that either Jacksonville or Tennessee are 'gimme' games anymore.
...
Okay, Jacksonville might still be (despite their apparent talent).

89
by Ben :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:03pm

Houston is certainly the best team in the division now, and their defense is very good. However, I don't think it's a 2015 Broncos/2000 Ravens level defense that will get them to the Super Bowl with an 'average and careful' QB. I suspect they will be 'cursed' with 10-12 win seasons and early playoff exits for the next several years, unless Osweiler improves considerably.

13
by erniecohen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 9:22am

It amazes me how people seem to not notice the strange coincidence that every offensive player in PIT-CIN had a bad day, while every cornerback turned into Mel Blount. Perhaps we should have some sort of adjustment for weather conditions?

14
by aces4me :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 9:24am

In those kind of conditions how do the running backs not have at least decent days?

16
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 9:39am

Mud is simultaneously sticky and slippery, and never the one you want.

43
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 11:37am

What was the weather like specifically?

53
by BJR :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 12:03pm

Steady rain, heavy for periods, which caused the field to cut up quite badly as the game wore on.

Nothing horrendous that these two outdoor teams wouldn't have experienced before, but certainly enough to significantly depress offensive output.

58
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 12:27pm

Ugh, I have weather effects in some of my models - accting for temp and snow. I was toying with rain but never included it out of laziness. Now I will/

59
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 12:31pm

Since it is my job to tell you what to do, I'll butt in and say wind is really the most consistently important weather factor which affects passing.

61
by BJR :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 12:42pm

Agree about the wind. I would add that in this instance, it was as much the deteriorating field conditions (which is often an issue at Heinz) as the actual rain which caused the relative lack of offence (IMO). Rain in isolation - probably not that big of a deal.

71
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 1:03pm

Yeah, heavy rain on Heinz Field is a much different proposition than in the vast majority of NFL stadiums. It's hard to capture this stuff quantitatively.

72
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 1:06pm

Sigh, since I took two days off from work. I will get on that now.

73
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 1:18pm

Yeah, quit slacking off!!!

(edit) More seriously, the issue prompts me to wonder about the inefficiency of markets; how much ignorant money is there betting the over on Heinz Field games when heavy rain has fallen/is forecasted?

87
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 1:58pm

I can't actually find a reliable source. Even the website I rely on for weather info marked Pitts game as "light rain" and that source only goes back to 2009.

Sadly, I may be unable to find a solid source to account for wind

90
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:05pm

I think this is going to remain an area which resists useful quantification for the forseeable future.

93
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:14pm

Just look into monthly grass sod wh0lesaler pr0fits in the county.

Ridiculous to have to zero those words.

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

134
by Jerry :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 8:45pm

Early in Sunday's Steeler-Bengal game, when the rain was still fairly heavy, the flags and goalpost streamers were still. The rain abated for a while, and was reasonably light when it returned. I can't say I looked at the wind later, but I didn't feel it, and didn't notice streamers and/or flags moving. I can believe that the wet weather caused some bad passes, but I've seen worse conditions.

112
by andrew :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:54pm

This would be WDYAR, and WDVOA.

Warren Moon threw for 500 yards in snow once, IIRC.

15
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 9:37am

What was 1997 like? Sanders started his first two games 25-53 (although his receptions were pretty successful).

He then totters to a terrible 310-2000 finish and ended up 2nd in DVOA, because DVOA hated the Loins.

144
by Eddo :: Wed, 09/21/2016 - 10:54am

Well, he finished second in DVOA to a guy with less than 40% as many carries (Marcus Allen(*)), and barely at that. Sanders had 25.3% DVOA, Allen 28.8%, not a very big gap, anyway.

Sanders's 447 DYAR also finished second, to Terrell Davis's 526. David had 10% more carries and a 10% higher success rate.

(*) Allen had a 61% success rate, scoring 11 TDs on 124, with only 505 yards. Given that volume, and how he was used at that point in his career, I wonder how that ranks among the best seasons for a short-yardage back ever.

17
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 9:47am

I know it's weird to be defending a guy with five turnovers, but Winston had a bad day, not an utterly awful one. There were a bunch of really weird occurrences that wound up causing most of those turnovers, and he definitely wasn't helped by any of his WRs not named "Mike Evans".

He had about the best five turnover day over ever seen. Which is admittedly not saying much at all.

25
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 10:14am

Yeah, and single game sample size contains a large amount of randomness, which is why nobody should get too excited about the rankings in a single week's Quick Reads.

21
by PatsFan :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 10:02am

Where did LaGarrett Blount finish? He seemed to have a lot of successful plays, but I'm guessing he had too many stuffs to climb the charts.

63
by SandyRiver :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 12:45pm

He earned his keep on that clock-eating shoulda-clinched-it drive late in Q4. However, after 4 successful plays (one with the OOB fumble) in 5 carries, he had 3 unsuccessful carries as the pats were basically killing clock to set up Gostkowski.

24
by RickD :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 10:07am

Antonio Brown was the worst WR of the week? Day-um.

27
by jtr :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 10:23am

He had one drop of an easy first down, but besides that I don't recall him being anything other than his usual self. I think he's mostly just suffering for being the most common target on a day that Roethlisberger had scattershot accuracy in the rain. Do WR's get dinged for INT's that were targeted in their direction? Pacman had a pick where Brown got wide open but the ball slipped and the throw was nowhere near him. Nothing Brown could have done there, but it's an incompletion and maybe a pick that counts against him.

139
by bengt :: Wed, 09/21/2016 - 8:52am

That interception was on fourth down and Jones gifted the Steelers 13 Yards by catching it. I think he could not reasonably have expected a return of more than that (it was a diving catch and the receiver was in touching distance), so it should definitely count against him in 'CB DVOA (OVOA?)'. But how is it counted for/against QB and receiver?

28
by bingo762 :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 10:35am

Given the coach and the offense, what's Carson Wentz's ceiling...Alex Smith? If that's the case, barring a superbowl title, how can his selection be viewed as anything but a failure given the pick used the acquire him, the picks used to acquire that pick, and the benefit of hindsight available with Smith's career?

32
by Led :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 10:56am

It's odd to put a ceiling on a rookie who has performed half way decently in two games. What information do you have now that you did not have immediately after the draft? If you want to say that giving up what the Eagles gave up was too much for any draft pick because the draft is a crapshoot, etc., that's reasonable. But that really has nothing to do with the particular player, who has done all one could reasonably expect of him to date.

One thing I noted was that he kept the ball secure with two hands in the pocket most of the time, which is something Gruden gave him grief over in his quarterback camp show. Last night Wentz looked much more like the "two handed monster" (Carson Palmer) that Gruden showed him. That's a good sign for his coachability.

38
by bingo762 :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 11:27am

Which is why I was asking and not declaring. Just something to think about. Do you need a #2 overall QB to run a dink & dunk offense?

41
by Led :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 11:33am

I was commenting more on the timing of the question than the answer.

45
by bingo762 :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 11:41am

Because I live in Philly and you'd think Joe Montana was the Eagles QB by what you hear around here.

103
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:38pm

which is HILARIOUS since before the draft (and after it) Pisanelli , Garbanzo, and the like were all "Div2 QB" "no pedigree" "played against nobodies" "can't process nfl speed" "We wanted Goff" blah blah blah. I.I.R.C. NHL fanboi Martinez-Myrtetus was the only one giving him a shot at even being a passable player.

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

39
by bingo762 :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 11:27am

Which is why I was asking and not declaring. Just something to think about. Do you need a #2 overall QB to run a dink & dunk offense?

37
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 11:23am

Based on? Wentz already has better numbers than Smith put up through six games in his rookie season, and he's shown a tendency to be more aggressive than Smith ever was.

Basically, Wentz is already the best Wentz to play in the NFL. Alex Smith arguably wasn't the best Alex Smith drafted in 2005.

51
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 12:01pm

Wentz has also played the Browns and Bears, who at this point appear to be marginally even NFL teams.

44
by lokiwi :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 11:39am

If Wentz is the Alex Smith that currently exists for 10 solid years, then he is easily worth the picks. That means Philly has a roughly league average to slightly above average QB for a decade, including 4 years on the rookie wage scale. That's a wide enough SB window that is on the front office to build something that can win with what he gives them. Seattle and Denver give an obvious blueprint. Or San Fran at the end of Smith's tenure. Or KC now. If he goes through Smith's career progression and is bad for 5 years before hitting a ceiling, he is not worth the picks.

48
by bingo762 :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 11:49am

Well, #1 overall pick, #1 overall money, #1 overall expectations Alex Smith was a definite bust. Game manager, lower salary, lower expectations Alex Smith not so much. Wentz is a top pick, making less money(but does the draft capital used to acquire that pick cancel that out?), with the same expectations as the bust version of Smith.

60
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 12:39pm

Smith has a weighted career AV of 72. That's about 50-100% higher than expected for a #1 pick (http://www.footballperspective.com/draft-value-chart/
https://statsbylopez.com/2016/05/04/approximate-value-and-the-nfl-draft/)

You don't have to like him, and it's fair to think he underperformed his talent, but he wasn't a bust. There's room in the Hall of Very Good.

65
by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 12:48pm

If you take the argument that the value counted to assess how good a draft pick was is only what he does on the rookie contract, plus some assumed bonus for the drafting team having a higher chance to re-sign the draft pick (a little more complicated in NFL with the tag), then most of that 72 AV came outside of that period.

Basically, we should still fault the 49ers that he was generally average in his rookie deal (14 AV), and by AV 43 of his career AV of 83 has come in KC, it is hard to say SF really got the expected value.

79
by lokiwi :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 1:27pm

Most of that AV was earned with KC, which is why I think the career arc is important in evaluating if a pick was "worth" it. If Wentz really struggles for 4 or 5 years, it is very unlikely that Philly would stick it out and obtain the value from a later career breakout. If he becomes league average within a year or two and levels off, it is very likely that Philly would sign him long term based on the first few seasons, and would get most of his value.

83
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 1:46pm

Smith was producing at his KC clip for his last two years in SF. SF thought they had a better talent in Kaepernick (they were wrong).

Is it fair to ding Smith for SFO's personnel evaluation mistake?

Under the same conditions, was Elway a bust? He wasn't drafted by Denver.

109
by lokiwi :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:43pm

I don't really see it as a ding on Smith. His value is what he has produced, regardless of which team benefits. But from the team's perspective, it is much less likely to get value from late-producing picks. Those last 2 years in SF were his 6th and 7th seasons. It's not unreasonable to say it is unlikely for a QB to get 6 seasons in one place to produce. Smith only got that last chance because attempts to replace him failed.

124
by tuluse :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 4:06pm

It was definitely a bad decision for the Colts to draft Elway.

86
by ChrisS :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 1:52pm

I don't think the Chase Stuart piece supports Alex Smith as a good draft pick. In the article he comes up with 34.6 AV for first overall picks. But that is based on the first 5 years and is an incremental number above a replacement value of 10. According to my reading 1st overall picks should average about 45 AV total in their first 5 years and Alex Smith has 20. http://www.footballperspective.com/creating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii/
The chart in the second article seems to say that on average 1 overall picks have an average career AV of about 50 which would support your point, Smith has career AV of 83.

88
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:00pm

Context, context, context. Until Harbaugh was hired, Smith endured hideous management, and Smith got out of there before the hideous management drove Harbaugh out. Speaking of the "average" 1 overall picks is meaningless, given the sample size. My bet is that a good number of 1 overall busts would have had productive careers if they had been lucky enough to get associated with better management early in their careers.

91
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:09pm

It all depends on what your expectations are for a number 1 overall pick.

Yes, when you weight Manning and Elway against busts like Russel and Couch - alex smith is certainly above average.

Then again, I think when most gms draft a qb, they want more than what alex smith is. That may seem like a slight to Alex Smith, whos certainly carved together a pretty decent career. But if I'm drafting a qb first overall - fairly or unfairly, I expect more than that.

94
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:15pm

Well, sure, but most GMs, actually, almost 100% of them, would tell you that they are good at their jobs, when the reality is that half of them are likely below average, and it is almost certain that a strong majority of gms who have 1 overall picks are below average. In other words, the gms who have 1 overall picks who underperform are, in good measure, responsible for that pick underperforming.

98
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:24pm

Its the classic chicken and egg. Does the player come in ready to be molded or are you what you're going to be no matter who the gm/coach is that's making the decisions.

This is a pretty hard thing to measure empirically; so I'm suspicious of anyone who claims to know. Having done a fair bit of draft research, I tend to favor the view that good players are good no matter what organization they find themselves in; but its just an opinion. That said, a gm who reaches for a player is not a good GM. And drafting a player who doesn't fit your scheme is also reflective of being a poor GM.

On the other hand, the Cleveland Browns are also really testing my belief in that view.

102
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:36pm

I think it varies greatly by position. Joe Thomas is Joe Thomas, no matter who drafts him. If Brady gets drafted by the Cleveland Browns in the fifth round, there's a good chance he never is thought of as being an above average qb.

108
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:43pm

/

107
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:42pm

Clearly Joe Thomas is joe thomas no matter who drafted him because he could not have gone to a worse organization.

I know hes rich and hes going to get a hall of fame jacket, but my god, the man deserves better than this.

122
by Independent George :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 3:51pm

Brady's not a good comparison - if Bledsoe doesn't get hurt, the Pats themselves might never have realized what they had in Brady.

I think the better comparison is Steve Young with Tampa, versus the Steve Young under Bill Walsh's tutelage. Or Vinnie Testaverde with Tampa, versus his extremely productive years under Belichick and Parcells. Or Doug Williams with Tampa, versus Doug Williams under Joe Gibbs.

Goddamn Tampa sucked.

129
by Mike B. In Va :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 4:41pm

Goddamn Tampa sucked.

The most defensible conclusion to be drawn from your sample set. ;)

104
by Noah Arkadia :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:39pm

I don't agree 100% with that -that good players are good no matter what. But I do think there's a fair amount of unknown or even unknowable about college players, and maybe QBs even more than other positions. I wouldn't hold the GMs accountable for the misses (or hits) all the time. On the other hand, it's one thing to bust with RGIII and another to bust with JaMarcus. GM evaluation -much like draft evaluation- is not an exact science.

113
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:57pm

Anther way to think about it. How many qbs have made it to the HOF after getting a season's worth of starts for really bad teams, which continued to be badly managed? The only one that comes to mind, post-merger, is Steve Young, who of course got out of Tampa after 19 starts. I can think of a lot of players at other positions who have done so. Joe Thomas is almost certainly going to the HOF. Walter Payton was a HOFer before the Bears became better managed. Barry Sanders, of course. Aeneas Williams.

116
by SandyRiver :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 3:13pm

Might be more useful to take the median AV for 1st overall, as guys like Manning and Elway probably skew the average as much as does half a dozen busts.

47
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 11:47am

What would cause you to ask that, however? Wentz is bigger, about as mobile, and throws better than Smith. Sure, his lack of experience against elite athletes meant his floor was really low, and his chance of seeing it relatively high, which is why I didn't like him at such a high draft position, but there was nothing which would indicate a low ceiling, by high draft position standards. I'd say his ceiling is easily Roethlisberger, or, hell, given how intelligent he is reported to be, Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, except with mobility.

49
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 11:49am

In other words, his floor is joey Harrington like bust. His ceiling is the greatest qb of all time. Yep I'm informed.

55
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 12:17pm

About as informed as the people who drafted him, which, again, is why I didn't like the draft. If somebody had taken a flyer on him at the bottom of the first round, that would have seemed reasonable to me. So far, it looks like the Eagles guessed right. We'll know more after Wentz has played non-awful teams 7 or 8 times.

62
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 12:44pm

I don't like the meta-analysis criticism of reaching for a guy who theoretically could have been drafted later. There's not only no way to know that, there's no way to judge it in retrospect (unless you have a dimensional flux agitator which can explore alternate histories; as you're a Vikings fan, you clearly don't).

All you can do is evaluate a pick against expected performance at that draft slot.

To whit -- as much as a reach as it was, Jason Hanson was worth a second round pick.
To whit -- no sane man would have let Brady slide to #199 if they knew what they had

I get the game theory argument about it, but it's subject to the Asshole Rule: it only takes one asshole to nab the pick you thought you could get later.

68
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 12:56pm

I was mostly just trying to point out that I was wrong. I didn't like the pick that high because I think a pick that high should be on a guy who has a pretty low chance of never being a regular starter for several years, extending deep into the 2nd contract, and the lack of competition against elite athletes made me nervous. Obviously, the Eagles saw it differently, probably in good part because they had access to a lot more information. They were right.

29
by Jake80 :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 10:37am

To defend Eli in the RZ, one of his incompletions was a drop by Donnell, another looked like a drop by Beckham (it was a contested ball and Moore might have gotten his hand in there but there wasn't a good replay) and on the third Eli saw Cruz getting mauled and tried to get it to him but it was tipped from the side.

30
by Babylon :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 10:48am

That Bortles stat is pretty crazy. I figured someone like Testaverde would've had a record like that.

54
by rj1 :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 12:04pm

Combine widespread prevent defenses with agents and general managers that pour over numbers creates the perfect recipe for stat padding for quarterbacks and receivers and coaches making the scoreline more respectable, which is good for negotiating future contracts and keeping jobs.

Surprised someone like Stafford doesn't have it actually with his years in Detroit. Calvin Johnson set a season receiving record on a team that went 5-11 I think.

As a part of an advanced statistical metric, I wish we'd just stop counting stats past a certain point when the deficit in the context of that point in the game is realistically too high to overcome. If it's 31-10 at the beginning of the 4th, nothing either team does in the 4th quarter is going to matter 99% of the time. So Bortles' statline for this past weekend would only read what he accomplished up to the point in hindsight you can say "with 99% accuracy there's no way the Jaguars could've won this game from this point forward regardless of how they played".

66
by SandyRiver :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 12:48pm

Thus MIA-NE was the 1%. (Though the 'Phins scored on the first "real" play of Q4.)

31
by lokiwi :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 10:54am

"When your defense makes Eric Decker look like one of the best wide receivers in the league.."

Decker is one of the best wide receivers in the league, at least by DYAR. He's the best #2 that any team has (except maybe whichever of Sanders/Thomas is the #2 in Denver), and better than about half the league's #1s.

33
by Led :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 10:59am

Obviously, Forte's resume speaks for itself, too. But you gotta cut Vince some slack. It IS a good joke; too good to quibble over.

35
by lokiwi :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 11:07am

Fair. We should never miss a chance to pile shit on top of Rex Ryan. In response to my failure to not be the "well actually" guy on the internet, the only option is to fire my offensive coordinator.

74
by ChrisS :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 1:18pm

Might not be enough data yet this season to definitively state which are the league best WR's. Last 2 seasons Decker ranked 12th and 24th by DYAR.

77
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 1:22pm

I haven't watched Decker a lot with the Jets. I didn't think he displayed great ball skills when Manning was throwing to him.

81
by lokiwi :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 1:37pm

Depends on how widely you define best but by DYAR:

2015: 12th
2014: 24th*
2013: 4th
2012: 4th
2011: 71st**

*Geno Smith
**Tim Tebow, 1st year starting

Decker is a very good receiver. There is no debate.

84
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 1:48pm

Well, that depends on the definition of "very good". Getting to 4th in DYAR, as the 2nd or 3rd option, on one of the most prolific passing offenses in league history, managed by perhaps the greatest qb ever, operating near his peak, is not as impressive as it would be in other contexts.

117
by lokiwi :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 3:15pm

I'm relying more on the 12th and 24th to show his true level, which is probably between the 10th and 15th best in the league. I don't know who would say that level isn't "very good." Ranking 24th as the primary option with Geno Smith at QB is impressive. System WRs that leave to be #1s on bad passing teams don't produce those seasons.

Demaryius Thomas is a useful comparison. He was #1 in DYAR both seasons Decker was 4th in the same system. Last year, the only year he has played with a Geno-level QB, he finished 60th in DYAR as a co-1st option with Sanders (who finished 49th). Nobody questions that Thomas (or especially Sanders) is an elite receiver, and the reality is that Decker has produced similar results when in similar situations.

125
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 4:19pm

Unfortunately, DYAR is an unfair way to measure receivers imo. Say a receiver is asked to run a route that is short of the sticks. If the ball is thrown to him, he's got no choice but to catch it and it will subsequently hurt his statistics. To say nothing of the team around him.

Adjusted +/- comes probably the closest because there we're at least comparing him against the team averages.

128
by lokiwi :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 4:39pm

It is admittedly imperfect, just like any football stat. I don't think it is that useful for comparing receivers' production for a single season, but the cream rises to the top over time. The names that show up near the top repeatedly are the names you would expect if you watch football. And Decker is consistently a great DYAR performer.

I don't have access to all the adjusted +/- numbers. I see Decker's 2012 was 15th overall in the past 10 years, but he wasn't top 10 in the past 2. But he wasn't top 10 in DYAR either, so that isn't surprising. I wouldn't be shocked if he was low teens. WOuld be very surprised if he was much lower than that.

40
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 11:29am

I didn't watch the bears in either game this season, but im a bit surprised the offense has been awful thus far. Anyone who watched the games closel, can you tell me whats going on?

42
by Led :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 11:36am

I just watched last night. Seems like the big problem is they can't block anybody. The team isn't built for precision short passes that could help with the whole "can't block anybody" problem.

46
by DavidL :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 11:46am

Except Eddie Royal -- getting him the ball in space, even if that space was behind the line of scrimmage, generally resulted in solid yardage. I'm not sure how much of that was the thinness of Philly's secondary, though.

76
by Steve in WI :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 1:22pm

Yeah, blocking seems to be the primary issue. Which is a concern given that they have two of the better guards in the league. I don't know if the tackles and center are really that awful or if there are extenuating circumstances (Long seems to be injured, and Sitton is still new to the team).

They've also jettisoned three really, really good offensive players (Brandon Marshall, Martellus Bennett, and Matt Forte) in the last two seasons. I think trading Marshall was defensible, as was not re-signing Forte based on his age, but I still have no idea why Bennett was traded other than a personality clash with Fox.

I think this Bears team will be lucky to match last season's win total, which isn't really what I want to see in year 2 of a rebuild in the NFL.

80
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 1:34pm

If they don't pass 5 wins, my bet is they fire Fox, and while I think Fox is an above average coach, I wouldn't blame them. I don't think they are going to want to have a 34 year old Cutler consume 16 million in cap space next year, if he stinks this year, given the dead money next year would only be 2 million. If they have a shot at the Clemson QB, or somebody who projects similarly, they should hire a head coach with a career spent on the offensive side. As much as I like Lovie Smith as a coach, I understood why the Bucs would rather retain Koetter, instead of seeing him hired to head job, given the investment in their young qb.

131
by Steve in WI :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 5:20pm

Contemplating what direction the Bears would go if this season turns out to be a real disaster gives me a stomachache. I made some half-serious comparisons between Fox and Trestman while watching the game last night, but the obvious difference between the two is that Fox has had some success as a head coach while Trestman was in completely over his head. The problem is that this is a less talented team than the one Trestman inherited, and Fox is responsible for at least some of that (in particular, the Bennett trade).

I would say that there's no way Fox would be fired after only two seasons, but if I recall correctly Pace was hired, then Fox became available, and I would guess that Pace was pretty much forced to hire him. I can't imagine the Bears firing Pace after only two years, so I could imagine Fox being the scapegoat and getting fired while Pace gets a chance to hire his guy, whoever that is.

If things go badly enough for anyone to get fired, then I don't see why Cutler would stay even if he's good. We would be years past the point of it mattering just how good or bad a QB Cutler is by the time the Bears would be ready to compete. Although $16 million in 2017 isn't that much cap space for a guy who can start at QB, and it's basically a year-to-year deal starting next season, so they might be able to get something for him in a trade...

132
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 5:36pm

I think the Clemson and Notre Dame qbs are easily worth top 5 picks, and if you get the chance to draft one of them, it makes no sense to have a defensive oriented head coach like Fox. If you have a assistant do a great job with your number one pick, the assistant gets a head job somewhere, and then your young qb has to buid another relationship, maybe in another offense. This may sound crazy, but I'd hire McDaniel away from Darth Hoodie. Hoodie became a better head coach the 2nd time around, after all.

52
by mcgatman :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 12:01pm

To be fair to David Wilson, his career was cut short by spinal stenosis, not ineffectiveness. His other big failing was Tom Coughlin's aversion to playing talented rookies over washed-up veterans.

57
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 12:25pm

I woke up this morning and realized I had misinterpreted Scott's Tweet. See the table for a correction on Bortles' comment.

75
by Bryan Knowles :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 1:21pm

It's still an exceptional stat.

At Bortles' current rate of garbage time production, he could easily pass John Elway (22), Norm Van Brocklin (23), Len Dawson (23), Jim Kelly (24), Y.A. Tittle (26), Dan Fouts (27) and George Blanda (28) this year. That's an impressive list of quarterbacks to pass!

For those wondering, the all-time Top 10 is:

1. Brett Favre (58)
2. Drew Brees (53)
3. Peyton Manning (50)
T4. Jim Everett (49)
T4. Steve DeBerg (49)
T6. Vinny Testaverde (48)
T6. Kerry Collins (48)
T6. Dan Marino (48)
9. Archie Manning (43)
T10. Eli Manning (42)
T10. Philip Rivers (42)

82
by BroncFan07 :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 1:42pm

Jim Everett??!!

85
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 1:50pm

To be fair, Chris rarely got behind by three TDs.

135
by Duff Soviet Union :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 8:57pm

The funny thing is if you asked me to guess the top 10, I probably could have got nine of them. I would have thought Brees (who might retire at number 1) or Marino would be number 1, but Favre is always a solid answer for any stat related to longevity.

95
by Ben :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:16pm

I would argue that the definition of "garbage time" needs to be tightened up for this list.

Unless I'm misunderstanding the search criteria, throwing a TD on the first drive of the second half to go from down 10 to down 3 would count for this list. I'd say that's far from garbage time...

96
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:20pm

Its pretty hard to define, which is why FO doesn't totally discount it. I suspect though - that's because of composition of teams in it. Some are truly in garbage time and others are actually making a legitimate comeback and its hard to distinguish.

Therein lies the problem; how does one define garbage time?

Theoretically, you can comeback from almost 4 scores in the 4th quarter - so even being down big at the start of the 4th may not be the right definition. If it were me, I would probably tie win expectancy to 4th quarter and just live with some games being miss-categorized.

100
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:27pm

" If it were me, I would probably tie win expectancy to 4th quarter and just live with some games being miss-categorized."

As opposed to when they are master-categorized?

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

114
by Ben :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 3:00pm

I came up with this search: http://pfref.com/tiny/7ZFW9

(if it gets past the spam filter). If you scroll down, it has a list of TD passes thrown while trailing by 20 or more in the fourth quarter. You're right though, it misses the beginning of big comebacks and TD's thrown down 16 with 15 seconds left.

99
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:26pm

Yeah, I'd prefer a definition which only included drives which started with the offense down 20 with, I dunno, 8 minutes or less left, 12 points with 5 minutes or less left, or 9 points with 2 or fewer minutes left. Even then, if you are down 20 with 8 minutes left, and you take 6:30 to drive the length of the field to score a td, you really haven't done anything useful, but if you are down 9 with 1:45 left, and score in 30 seconds, you have done something very useful. This stuff is hard to pin down.

101
by Bryan Knowles :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:33pm

If you expand it out to 17 points (or three-score deficits), then your top three becomes Testaverde, Archie Manning and Kerry Collins, which "feels" more right to me when talking about Kings of Garbage Time.

It's ultimately a hard point to draw a strict cut-off; the Rams in Week 1 were arguably hopelessly down for all of the fourth quarter down just 14 points, while we've seen stellar comebacks from more explosive teams. You could craft a more complicated definition of "garbage time", but for a throwaway stat like this, there's an effort versus reward factor that comes into play at some point, I think.

106
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:40pm

/

105
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 2:39pm

I could see it improving DVOA's predictability if it were defined in a more rigorous way. I don't know how its done presently, but I know Aaron has mentioned many times that including it is more predictive than not including it.

Fair enough, but that could be because its mixing teams that can legitimately comeback with teams that are truly hopeless and through the process of aggregation, you're losing a lot of information.

143
by Noah Arkadia :: Wed, 09/21/2016 - 10:50am

I think it's because, regardless of whether the team can legitimately come back or not, the defense should still assume it can and continue to play hard. Therefore, the level of difficulty should still be high. What would really be useful is not garbage time stats, but stats against prevent defense. Or to actually define garbage time as the moment the defense starts playing prevent.

67
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 12:50pm

If somebody has few hours to kill, a look at Rodgers' last 30 games or so, on the all-22, might be informative, with regard to whether the Packer's receiving has simply gone over a cliff, or whether defenses are doing thing differently to counter Rodgers. I think the o-line play has been pretty consistently not-terrible, which makes the decline over the last 13 or 14 games more surprising.

140
by Arkaein :: Wed, 09/21/2016 - 10:16am

There are a few articles that came out this week looking into this. The consensus is that there are a few things that are hurting.

One is the play calling, with an over-reliance on isolation routes in lieu of man-beaters like bunch formations and crossing routes. This is a legitimate argument, but the GB offense has been like this for years, so it doesn't really explain any decline.

The bigger problem to me, is that Rodgers seems to be looking for the big plays all of the time, and is passing up intermediate routes and checkdowns, as well as being unwilling to throw into tight windows.

Rodgers has always excelled at avoiding INTs, but that didn't used to stop him from throwing accurate timing route passes into tight windows over the middle. As a Vikings fan Will, I'm sure you remember the Sunday night game a few years back where Collinsworth said that Vikings defenders should "stick their hands up by their ear holes". Rodgers used to be all over routes where he could get the defenders back turned, trusting himself to make a pinpoint throw that didn't even give nearby defenders a chance to react. He hasn't done that in a few years.

I think that since GB introduced their slow no huddle offense a few years back (in 2014 I think), Rodgers has gotten a little too enamored with free plays from offsides or 12 men penalties on the defense. On the majority of plays with no penalties, Rodgers seems unwilling to throw a pass where a defender even has a chance to touch the ball, excepting late game desperation circumstances.

GB definitely has the talent to be great. Rodgers is healthy, mobile, and his arm is as good as ever. His understanding of the playbook is top notch. The clips in this article also show that his receivers are getting open more than it might seem:

https://www.all22.com/team/green-bay-packers-struggling-offense-flawed-b...

He just needs to get back to his earlier days as a starter, where he would work more standard progressions, throw the short and intermediate passes in rhythm, and take the big plays when they come naturally instead of trying to force them to happen every play.

141
by Will Allen :: Wed, 09/21/2016 - 10:41am

I haven't perceived McCarthy as being like a Mike Sherman, unwilling to kick his star qb's butt when needed. Maybe he does, but Rodgers is just immune to it at this point. The two have been together, what,nine years now? Guys can get stale; the B & B thing in Foxboro is a real rarity.

146
by Arkaein :: Wed, 09/21/2016 - 11:12am

Yeah, it's a little concerning.

I'm mostly in the McCarthy defender camp. I think that when you look at his record compared to peers like Payton and Tomlin, coaches with similar tenures and levels of QB play, his record, including playoffs and Superbowls, stacks up just fine.

McCarthy also got Favre to play better in his last 2 years in GB than he had before that under Sherman, and was hugely instrumental in developing Rodgers.

But at this point I do think that Rodgers needs to get back to basics. Some of that has to be on McCarthy, especially the fact that defenses are getting wise to GB's no huddle, but Rodgers should recognize it at this point as well.

147
by dank067 :: Wed, 09/21/2016 - 11:52am

Situation might be analogous to Andy Reid in Philadelphia. It was almost certainly time for Reid and the Eagles to part ways when they did, but for all his flaws that doesn't mean the NFL had passed him by—he immediately found success in KC. Philly also appeared to benefit from the coaching change in the short run before Kelly dismantled the roster.

Interesting enough with your Sherman analogy, the first couple years of his tenure also seemed to spark a bit of a rebound in Favre's level of play before stagnating again by the end.

148
by dank067 :: Wed, 09/21/2016 - 12:01pm

Thanks for the link, it's one of the nicer summaries of some of the issues going on so far.

Only other thing I think is worth adding with respect to Rodgers is that it seems that he has changed/tailored his mechanics in such a way that he can release the ball quickly from any point in his progression without his feet being completely set. Works great when you spot your WR break open in space 3-4 seconds after the snap when you've been drifting within and out of the pocket, but I really think its harmed his accuracy on screens, slants and comebacks—those timing plays. Like the article says he has been passing them up sometimes but he's also flat out missing on them too. It's also made him a bit antsier in the pocket as if he's more concerned where he's going to escape to rather than focusing on the receivers.

119
by techvet :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 3:27pm

" He is one of three receivers to ever top 500 DYAR in a season twice. The others: Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, and Jerry Rice (who did it three times)." Wait, doesn't that mean he is one of *four* receivers to do it?

123
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 3:56pm

Winston played Arizona, not Atlanta.

Thank you. Fixed.

Was this week Aaron Rodgers' worst game by (unadjusted) passing YAR? Or was Denver last season worse? Either way, Week 2 wasn't pretty for NFC North quarterbacks who have been with their team longer than three weeks.

By YAR, he was worse several times last season: Week 5 (against the Rams), Week 8 (Broncos), Week 12 (Bears), Week 16 (Cardinals), and Week 17 (Vikings).

How the heck was Rawls not the worst RB of the week?

For those of you who missed it, Rawls had seven carries for minus-7 yards. We do have a minimum threshold of eight carries for these tables, but even without that Rawls' rushing DYAR of minus-26 would only have been fourth-worst this week. Rawls had no successful runs against Los Angeles, and seven failed runs. Compare that to DeAngelo Williams, who had 11 successful runs against Cincinnati, but 21 failed runs. Wiliams did a lot more to hurt Pittsburgh than Rawls did to hurt Seattle. Now, DVOA would tell a different story, but DYAR is a counting stat, even for negative plays. Now, speaking of Williams...

"Almost literally going from the penthouse to the outhouse, Williams was first in rushing value last week. This week, not so much. Only four first downs, nothing longer than 11 yards, nine stuffs for no gain or a loss, and eight more that gained exactly 1 yards. Yes, his median gain was just 1 yard. "

makes no sense

Here are his carries, broken down by yardage:

11
8
8
8
8
7
7
6
6
6
5
4
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1
-3
-3

That's a median gain of 1 yard per carry, and that's awful.

There was a typo in there where I wrote "gained exactly 1 yards." It has been fixed.

Where did LaGarrett Blount finish? He seemed to have a lot of successful plays, but I'm guessing he had too many stuffs to climb the charts.

Did not make the top 20 running backs in total value. Only 4 DYAR rushing. Three runs of ten or more yards, seven first downs, four stuffs for no gain or a loss, one fumble. That was the worst play, but it wasn't an especially good day even without that. Also, did you know that Jimmy Garrapolo has more targets this year (1) than Blount (0)?

Do WR's get dinged for INT's that were targeted in their direction?

No. There are a few reasons for this, but the biggest is INTs are huge plays, and given the small sample sizes of most receivers (and backs and tight ends), just one can have a massive impact on the rankings.

"When your defense makes Eric Decker look like one of the best wide receivers in the league.."
Decker is one of the best wide receivers in the league, at least by DYAR. He's the best #2 that any team has (except maybe whichever of Sanders/Thomas is the #2 in Denver), and better than about half the league's #1s.

I should have said "top five" instead of "one of the best." Eric Decker is a very good wide receiver. He is not one of the top five wide receivers in football.

" He is one of three receivers to ever top 500 DYAR in a season twice. The others: Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, and Jerry Rice (who did it three times)." Wait, doesn't that mean he is one of *four* receivers to do it?

Indeed it does. This has also been fixed.

126
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 4:27pm

My point wasn't with a typo, it was with the fact that you first made a very distinct and obvious differentiation between a gain and a loss, and then decided later to ignore it when it better suited your point.

Since I suspect the point is likely to be ignored (since you ignored the followup comment I already made), I'll ask another one instead.

I'll further ask a hypothetical.

A goalline specialist FB is brought in on 1st and goal inside the 2 every time the team has the ball in that situation. He converts it almost every time. He never ever touches the ball in any other situation. He racks up 200 career TDs over 15 seasons. His median career statistic is a 1 yard carry with a .987 success conversion of the TD. Is that awful?

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

127
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 4:36pm

My point wasn't with a typo, it was with the fact that you first made a very distinct and obvious differentiation between a gain and a loss, and then decided later to ignore it when it better suited your point.

...

Here is what I originally wrote:

"nine stuffs for no gain or a loss, and eight more that gained exactly 1 yards"

How is that making a "distinct and obvious differentiation" and then "ignoring it?" A 1-yard gain is better than a loss. It still (almost always) sucks. If I had just written "17 carries that gained 1 yard or less," which is the exact same information, would that have been better?

A goalline specialist FB is brought in on 1st and goal inside the 2 every time the team has the ball in that situation. He converts it almost every time. He never ever touches the ball in any other situation. He racks up 200 career TDs over 15 seasons. His median career statistic is a 1 yard carry with a .987 success conversion of the TD. Is that awful?

Of course not. But Williams wasn't being used as a specialist. Twenty of his carries came with 10 or more yards to go.

130
by nat :: Tue, 09/20/2016 - 4:55pm

Eric Decker is a very good wide receiver. He is not one of the top five wide receivers in football.

Based on what, exactly?

Could you name the WRs with more total DYAR for the past 4 seasons?
Could you name the WRs who beat Decker in DYAR in at least two of the last four seasons - thus equaling him? Which beat him in three?

The lists are very short.

What QBs did they each have?

136
by Grendel13G :: Wed, 09/21/2016 - 12:34am

Goodness. Let the man have the Bills offensive coordinator joke!

138
by tuluse :: Wed, 09/21/2016 - 12:40am

"Based on what, exactly?"

He rarely gets the most targets of his QBs' available options.

142
by nat :: Wed, 09/21/2016 - 10:43am

Since 2012, Decker is 12th in targets.

So your point is kind of moot. Decker gets a ton of targets, more than enough to remove any sample size or role-player critique of his career.