Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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» Week 11 DVOA Ratings

DVOA has finally climbed on board the Wentz Wagon! The Eagles move into the No. 1 spot, but they aren't the only strong, well-balanced team in the NFL this year. New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and the Los Angeles Rams make this one of the best seasons ever for multiple teams over 30% in DVOA, and Minnesota isn't far behind.

17 Oct 2016

Week 6 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

As you have probably heard by now, Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott is having a tremendous rookie season. The fourth overall pick in the draft out of Ohio State leads the league in rushing yards and yards from scrimmage. Among rookie running backs who entered the league since 1960, only Eric Dickerson had more yards in his team's first six games, and only Dickerson, Billy Sims, and Adrian Peterson had more yards from scrimmage. He ran for a career-high 157 yards on Sunday against Green Bay, his fourth straight game of 130 yards or more. And the advanced numbers like him too -- going into Monday night, Elliott was second among running backs in rushing DYAR behind Buffalo's LeSean McCoy.

You have probably also heard that Elliott's teammate, Dak Prescott, is also having a tremendous rookie season. The fourth-rounder out of Mississippi State is among the league's top five quarterbacks in completion rate, yards per pass, interception rate, and NFL passer rating. Among rookie quarterbacks with at least 150 passes in their team's first six games, Prescott is second only to Robert Griffin in completion rate and yards per pass, and he leads the group in NFL passer rating. Prescott actually had a rough start, completing 56 percent of his passes for 5.0 yards per pass in Week 1 against the Giants. Since then, those numbers have climbed to 73 percent and 9.2 yards per pass. And Prescott is also a darling of the advanced stats -- like Elliott, he is second in DYAR at his position, trailing only Atlanta's Matt Ryan.

You probably haven't heard very much, though, about Cole Beasley, and the excellent season he is having. Beasley went undrafted out of SMU in 2012, and since then has been nothing more than a nice third or fourth option in the Dallas passing game -- he set career highs last season with 52 catches, 536 yards, and five touchdowns. And his raw numbers this year are only marginally better -- he is tenth in catches and touchdowns, but 20th in yards, barely registering a blip on the NFL's radar. He hasn't gained more than 75 yards in a game all year. However, he has ten third-down conversions, tied with Antonio Brown for the league lead. And while he is in the top ten in with 33 catches, he has only been the target on six incomplete passes, and he is not the top 100 players in that category. When you take the modest value of his good plays, and then subtract the minute value of his bad plays, you are left with 202 DYAR -- and that, believe it or not, is the highest total in the league.

No team has ever finished with the top passer, runner, and wide receiver in DYAR in the same season. In fact, no team has finished with players finishing first or second in all three categories. The three teams that have come closest each had two first-place finishers and one bronze medalist. Two of those teams also played in Dallas the original Triplets who won three Super Bowls. In both 1992 and 1993, Emmitt Smith led the league in rushing DYAR and Michael Irvin finished first in receiving DYAR, while Troy Aikman was third in passing DYAR. The 2004 Colts, meanwhile, had the league's top passer in Peyton Manning and the top wide receiver in Reggie Wayne, but Edgerrin James was third in rushing DYAR.

That's not totally fair, though, because sometimes the best receiver on a team is actually the tight end. If we account for that, then there's a surprising team on top of the "triplets" list: the 2003 Chiefs, who had the NFL's top runner in Priest Holmes and the top tight end in Tony Gonzalez, while Trent Green was second in passing DYAR.

Here's a look at other "triplets." The following table lists all teams since 1989 that had a quarterback in the top 10 in passing DYAR, a running back in the top 10 in rushing DYAR, and a wide receiver or tight end in the top 10 in receiving DYAR at that position. Teams are ranked by the average ranks of those three players, with the 2003 Chiefs alone at the top.


Teams With Top-10 Players at QB, RB, and WR/TE, 1989-2015
Team Year QB Rk RB Rk WR/TE Rk Average
KC 2003 T.Green 2 P.Holmes 1 T.Gonzalez 1 1.3
DAL 1992 T.Aikman 3 E.Smith 1 M.Irvin 1 1.7
DAL 1993 T.Aikman 3 E.Smith 1 M.Irvin 1 1.7
IND 2004 P.Manning 1 E.James 3 R.Wayne 1 1.7
CIN 1989 B.Esiason 3 J.Brooks 2 R.Holman 1 2.0
DAL 1995 T.Aikman 4 E.Smith 1 M.Irvin 1 2.0
KC 2002 T.Green 3 P.Holmes 1 T.Gonzalez 2 2.0
IND 2006 P.Manning 1 J.Addai 4 M.Harrison 1 2.0
NE 2010 T.Brady 1 B.Green-Ellis 3 R.Gronkowski 2 2.0
SEA 2015 R.Wilson 3 T.Rawls 1 D.Baldwin 2 2.0
BUF 1991 J.Kelly 3 T.Thomas 1 A.Reed 3 2.3
DEN 1998 J.Elway 4 T.Davis 1 S.Sharpe 2 2.3
STL 1999 K.Warner 1 M.Faulk 2 I.Bruce 4 2.3
IND 2000 P.Manning 1 E.James 2 M.Pollard 4 2.3
OAK 2002 R.Gannon 1 C.Garner 3 D.Jolley 3 2.3
PIT 2014 B.Roethlisberger 1 L.Bell 5 A.Brown 1 2.3
SF 1992 S.Young 1 R.Watters 6 B.Jones 1 2.7
SF 1993 S.Young 2 R.Watters 4 J.Rice/B.Jones 2 2.7
DAL 1994 T.Aikman 5 E.Smith 1 M.Irvin 2 2.7
Team Year QB Rk RB Rk WR/TE Rk Total
KC 2004 T.Green 3 P.Holmes 4 T.Gonzalez 1 2.7
NO 2011 D.Brees 1 P.Thomas 5 J.Graham 2 2.7
DEN 2013 P.Manning 1 K.Moreno 6 D.Thomas 1 2.7
DAL 1991 T.Aikman 6 E.Smith 2 M.Irvin 1 3.0
DEN 1996 J.Elway 5 T.Davis 3 S.Sharpe 1 3.0
DEN 1997 J.Elway 6 T.Davis 1 S.Sharpe 2 3.0
MIN 2000 D.Culpepper 3 R.Smith 5 R.Moss 1 3.0
SF 2001 J.Garcia 4 G.Heart 3 T.Owens 2 3.0
STL 2001 K.Warner 1 M.Faulk 2 T.Holt 6 3.0
KC 2005 T.Green 5 L.Johnson 1 T.Gonzalez 3 3.0
SD 2006 P.Rivers 6 L.Tomlinson 1 A.Gates 2 3.0
NE 2007 T.Brady 1 L.Maroney 7 R.Moss 1 3.0
PIT 2015 B.Roethlisberger 5 L.Bell 3 A.Brown 1 3.0
BAL 1996 V.Testaverde 1 B.Morris 6 D.Alexander/B.Kinchen 3 3.3
SF 1998 S.Young 3 G.Heart 3 T.Owens 4 3.3
CIN 2005 C.Palmer 2 R.Johnson 6 C.Johnson 2 3.3
IND 2005 P.Manning 1 E.James 3 D.Clark 6 3.3
IND 2007 P.Manning 2 J.Addai 5 R.Wayne 3 3.3
DAL 2013 T.Romo 7 D.Murray 2 J.Witten 1 3.3

Two teams from 2015 make the list: The Russell Wilson / Thomas Rawls / Doug Baldwin Seahawks, and Ben Roethlisberger / Le'veon Bell / Antonio Brown Steelers. No team has made the list more often than Dallas though -- the Triplets qualified every year from 1991 to 1995, and then the Tony Romo / DeMarco Murray / Jason Witten trio also qualified in 2013.

The Colts make the list five times, while the Broncos, Chiefs, and 49ers appear four times each. No individual player appears more times than Peyton Manning, who made the list six times with two different teams, three different running backs, and five different wide receivers/tight ends. Yes, that man could run an offense.

Will this year's Cowboys join the list when all is said and done? That's hard to say. Elliott's place among the top ten runners looks like a lead-pipe cinch, but Prescott could end up returning to the sidelines when Tony Romo's back heals. And it's hard to see what Beasley's role in the offense will be going forward -- following Dallas' bye this upcoming weekend, Dez Bryant is scheduled to return to the team in Week 8 against Philadelphia. Will Beasley lose too many targets to maintain his status in the top ten? Or will his efficiency go up even further with Bryant taking up defense's attention?

If any of Dallas' trio falls out of the top 10, the Falcons are posed to take their place. Atlanta currently has the leader in passing DYAR in Matt Ryan; the eighth-ranked runner in Devonta Freeman; and the second-ranked wide receiver in Julio Jones.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Tom Brady NE
29/35
376
3
0
3
174
188
-14
CIN
Brady couldn't do much to dig the Patriots out of long-yardage situations, but so long as they stayed on schedule he was almost unstoppable. With exactly 10 yards to go, he went 13-of-15 for 187 yards, with six first downs and one sack. Anything longer than that, he went 5-of-7 for 56 yards, with only one first down and one sack; anything shorter, he went 11-of-13 for 133 yards and 10 first downs, with one sack.
2.
Drew Brees NO
34/48
465
4
1
1
172
172
0
CAR
Brees had four touchdowns, but two of those came from 50 and 87 yards away. That's not a bad thing, but it does mask how badly Brees struggled to convert in scoring range. Inside the Carolina 40, he went 6-of-8 for 36 yards and only two first downs (though those first downs were both touchdowns). He made up for that, though, with a barrage of deep passes. He went 6-of-9 for 253 yards and two scores on passes that traveled more than 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
3.
Matthew Stafford DET
23/31
270
4
0
1
151
152
-2
LARM
Stafford only threw four passes that traveled more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, but he made them count, with three completions for 88 yards and a DPI for 17 more yards, and four total first downs. Sixty-three percent of Stafford's passing yards came after the catch, a close second behind Russell Wilson among starters this week.
4.
Case Keenum LARM
27/32
321
3
1
1
115
106
9
DET
Keenum set a Rams record with 19 straight completions at one point. There was a sack in that streak, but also a 22-yard DPI. And it's not like he was throwing meaningless dumpoffs, either -- 12 of those completions went for first downs, while only six were unsuccessful plays. He was especially effective throwing to his left, going 9-of-9 for 170 yards and eight first downs, plus a DPI for 22 yards and another first down. Keenum also took the biggest hit due to opponent adjustments this week.
5.
Marcus Mariota TEN
17/24
284
3
1
2
114
93
22
CLE
They were able to beat a team like the Browns, but at some point the Titans are going to need to become less predictable on offense. They ran the ball 68 percent of the time on first down, 67 percent of the time on second down, but only eight percent of the time on third down. Five of Mariota's first six pass attempts came on third down; the other was on second-and-9. Six of those runs (including the sole third-down carry) were Mariota's. They produced 65 total yards, including this 41-yard gain on a read option in the first quarter.
6.
Matt Ryan ATL
27/42
335
3
1
4
93
90
3
SEA
Three third-quarter drives: 13-of-17, 220 yards, 10 first downs (including three touchdowns), league-best 188 DYAR. Rest of game: 14-of-25, 115 yards, seven first downs, four sacks, one fumble, one interception, league-worst minus-98 DYAR. Ryan also got the biggest boost from opponent adjustments this week.
7.
Cody Kessler CLE
26/41
336
2
0
6
87
87
-1
TEN
8.
Russell Wilson SEA
25/37
270
0
0
1
87
84
2
ATL
The Falcons kept lots of defenders deep to take away Wilson's home-run ball. He threw only four "deep" passes that traveled more than 15 yards downfield. Two of those passes traveled exactly 16 yards past the line of scrimmage, and one of those was a throwaway.
9.
Tyrod Taylor BUF
17/26
179
2
0
3
84
80
4
SF
Streakiness: on his first eight dropbacks, Taylor went 5-of-7 for 58 yards with five first downs and a sack. On his last seven dropbacks, he went 4-of-6 for 72 yards with four first downs (including two touchdowns) and a 22-yard DPI. In between, he went 8-of-15 for 49 yards and only one first down, with two sacks.
10.
Alex Smith KC
19/22
224
0
0
1
83
85
-2
OAK
11.
Kirk Cousins WAS
18/34
263
2
1
0
82
79
3
PHI
12.
Philip Rivers SD
18/29
178
1
0
2
79
79
0
DEN
Rivers' first pass of the second quarter was a 12-yard completion to Hunter Henry on second-and-9. Up to that point, he had gone 11-of-13 for 131 yards and eight first downs. After that pass -- over nearly three full quarters -- he went 7-of-16 for 47 yards and only one first down, plus a 15-yard DPI and two sacks.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Andy Dalton CIN
21/31
254
1
0
2
77
62
15
NE
Dalton came out with a conservative gameplan against New England, but quickly abandoned it. His average pass distance in the first quarter was. 1.1 yards, second-lowest among starters this week. From the second quarter onwards, it was a league-high 12.9.
14.
Ryan Tannehill MIA
24/32
252
0
0
0
75
75
-1
PIT
The Dolphins scored 30 points on the Steelers and might have had more had Tannehill been of any use in scoring range. Inside the Pittsburgh 40, he went 9-of-14 for 44 yards and only one first down.
15.
Eli Manning NYG
32/46
403
3
2
1
68
68
0
BAL
Manning had three fourth-down passes in this game: a 10-yard gain on fourth-and-5 at the Baltimore 40; another 10-yard gain on fourth-and-3 at the Baltimore 37; and a 66-yard go-ahead touchdown on fourth-and-1. Three huge plays in a game the Giants won by just four points.
16.
Dak Prescott DAL
18/27
247
3
1
2
54
48
6
GB
Prescott had a horrible day on third downs against the Packers, going 5-of-8 for 67 yards, but only two first downs. He did get another first down on a 7-yard DPI, but also had an interception and a sack-fumble.
17.
Cam Newton CAR
27/47
322
2
1
2
48
42
6
NO
18.
Brian Hoyer CHI
30/49
302
0
0
1
22
22
0
JAC
19.
Andrew Luck IND
21/32
252
1
1
3
21
9
12
HOU
On Houston's half of the field, Luck went 8-of-16 for 62 yards with only two first downs, one interception, and one sack.
20.
Carson Palmer ARI
23/34
213
1
0
0
19
19
0
NYJ
21.
Joe Flacco BAL
26/48
307
0
0
2
14
24
-10
NYG
In a game the Ravens lost by only four points, Flacco failed to pick up a red zone touchdown despite plenty of chances, going 5-of-9 for 33 yards and only one first down inside the Giants' 20.
22.
Derek Carr OAK
22/33
225
1
1
2
5
17
-12
KC
Carr led the Raiders to a field goal on the last play of the first half that left Oakland down 13-10 and still very much in the game. Then, in the second half, he went 7-of-14 for 56 yards with only three first downs, two sacks, and one fumble.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ
16/31
174
0
1
0
0
2
-2
ARI
24.
Brock Osweiler HOU
25/39
269
2
1
1
-4
-4
0
IND
25.
Aaron Rodgers GB
31/42
294
1
1
1
-7
18
-26
DAL
26.
Colin Kaepernick SF
13/29
187
1
0
3
-10
-48
38
BUF
Almost all of Kaepernick's good plays came on first downs. On second, third, or fourth down, he went 5-of-16 for 67 yards with only three first downs, two sacks, and one fumble.
27.
Blake Bortles JAC
20/33
271
1
1
2
-18
-16
-2
CHI
In the red zone, Bortles went 1-of-5 for 4 yards with no first downs and an interception (though he did pick up a first down on a 13-yard DPI). The Jaguars would eventually win by one point.
28.
Trevor Siemian DEN
30/50
234
1
0
2
-22
-18
-4
SD
Siemian averaged a woeful 7.8 yards per completion against San Diego. He did not complete a pass for 10 or more yards until the Broncos were down 21-3 with less than 11 minutes to go in the game. In 60 minutes, he went 1-of-10 for 20 yards on deep passes.
29.
Carson Wentz PHI
11/22
179
0
0
5
-49
-50
1
WAS
Wentz spent nearly the entire game on Sunday trapped in the shadow of his own end zone. He only had 11 dropbacks outside his own 40. Only one of those dropbacks resulted in a first down, with as many completions (three, for 30 total yards) as sacks (for minus-24 yards). He only threw for five first downs the entire game.
30.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
19/34
189
1
2
2
-87
-87
0
MIA
Not a good day for quarterbacks who draw their paychecks in the state of Pennsylvania. Most will point to the torn meniscus Roethlisberger suffered on his first interception as a turning point in this game, but really he was already having a bad day, having gone 5-of-8 for just 41 yards and three first downs with a sack up to that point. He did not throw a single pass in the red zone. On third and fourth downs, he went 3-of-8 for 34 for yards and only two first downs, with two sacks and an interception.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Jay Ajayi MIA
25
204
2
1/2
3
0
73
79
-7
PIT
Seven gains of 10 or more yards, the longest a 62-yard touchdown, plus three shorter first downs. Meanwhile, he was hit for no gain or a loss only five times.
2.
Ezekiel Elliott DAL
28
157
0
2/4
17
0
49
55
-6
GB
Elliott's DYAR more than doubled after opponent adjustments, because Green Bay's run defense had been phenomenal in its first four games. Elliott now has five of the eight 10-plus-yard runs Green Bay has allowed this year, and two of the three 20-yard runs they've allowed (Lucky Whitehead had the other). He has six of the 19 first downs they've allowed on the ground, but he was the victim of only three of their 29 stuffs. Elliott is responsible for 43 percent of the rushing yards the Packers have allowed this year.
3.
LeSean McCoy BUF
19
142
3
1/4
2
0
45
35
10
SF
Six runs of 10 or more yards, including 18- and 12-yard touchdowns, while getting hit for no gain or a loss four times and fumbling once.
4.
David Johnson ARI
22
111
3
3/6
27
0
45
52
-7
NYJ
Johnson was stuffed for no gain or a loss three times, while running for eight first downs, including gains of 10, 14, and 58 yards.
5.
Lamar Miller HOU
24
153
1
3/4
29
1
43
20
23
IND
The anti-Elliott: Miller's DYAR total was cut nearly in half because the Colts defense is so terrible. He had seven runs of 10 or more yards while getting hit for no gain just twice. Three of his catches went for first downs, including a 10-yard touchdown on third-and-7.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Jay Ajayi MIA
25
204
2
1/2
3
0
73
79
-7
PIT
2.
Ezekiel Elliott DAL
28
157
0
2/4
17
0
49
55
-6
GB
3.
David Johnson ARI
22
111
3
3/6
27
0
45
52
-7
NYJ
4.
LeSean McCoy BUF
19
142
3
1/4
2
0
45
35
10
SF
5.
Matt Jones WAS
16
135
1
0/0
0
0
33
33
0
PHI
Five 10-plus-yard runs, including a 57-yard gain on third-and-7, while getting stuffed only four times.


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Melvin Gordon SD
27
94
0
0/2
0
0
-34
-23
-12
DEN
More than half of Gordon's yardage came on one 48-yard gain in the third quarter. Otherwise, he didn't have a single 10-yard gain on the day, and only had four other first downs. Meanwhile, 22 of his carries gained 3 yards or less, and he was stuffed for no gain or a loss eight times.


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Melvin Gordon SD
27
94
0
0/2
0
0
-34
-23
-12
DEN


Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Julio Jones ATL
7
9
139
19.9
1
71
SEA
All of Jones' catches resulted in first downs, including a 36-yard touchdown. The two catches he didn't catch both came in the final four minutes of the game. The last one, I presume you've heard about by now.
2.
Kenny Britt LARM
7
8
136
19.4
2
68
DET
Five of Britt's catches led to first downs, including gains of 43 and 47 yards.
3.
Rob Gronkowski NE
7
9
162
23.1
1
63
CIN
Five of Gronkowski's catches led to first downs, including gains of 29, 32, 38, and 38 yards.
4.
Golden Tate DET
8
10
165
20.6
1
63
LARM
Five first downs through the air, including gains of 23 and 34 yards, plus a 61-yard gain on third-and-12. Tate also had one carry for 3 yards, which works out to zero rushing DYAR, so forget I said anything about it.
5.
Cole Beasley DAL
6
6
58
9.7
2
61
GB
No 20-yard gains on the day, but five first downs, including two third-down conversions (one of which came on a 7-yard DPI).


Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Demaryius Thomas DEN
5
10
37
7.4
0
-51
SD
Thomas had as many first downs (one, which came on second-and-3) as fumbles, and was also the target on incomplete passes on first-and-5 and second-and-5.

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 17 Oct 2016

35 comments, Last at 20 Oct 2016, 3:25pm by bravehoptoad

Comments

1
by Megamanic :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 4:54am

Didn't think Melvin Gordon was going to get much love this week from DYAR. I was not disappointed...

8
by collapsing pocket :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 9:56am

No surprise. McCoy spent most of the game throwing him at that Broncos front trying to burn the clock. Martyball has been resurrected in San Diego.

2
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 5:06am

Nice to see DYAR be more illuminating with regard to Rodgers' performance than the traditional metrics, but even it doesn't fully capture his awfulness against the Cowboys, I think. To do that, you'd need to incorporate charting made from the All-22, so as to capture missed opportunities. I'll give Aikman and the FOX production crew credit here. They did a great job of showing, via replay, how Rodgers was just whiffing, via inaccuracy and slow location, despite open receivers and zero pressure.

3
by Jerry :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 6:14am

Proofreading:
"Ezekiel Elliott is have a tremendous rookie season."
"Ohio Stateleads"
Dalton comment: "From the second quater onwards"

4
by eagle97a :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 7:35am

If Rodgers manages to get out of his current funk and Big Ben gets back and maintains his current production then Quick Reads will have the usual top qbs of past years populating the top spots. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

5
by BretU :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 8:19am

Marshawn Lynch didn't finish #1 in DYAR in 2015, you meant Thomas Rawls. Mistake is made in both the table and the ext.

6
by BJR :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 9:39am

So from 1991-1995 Michael Irvin finished 1,1,1,2,1 in DYAR? He was good, I guess.

7
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 9:54am

He was very, very, good. In fact, great. He also had 5 sluggers bludgeoning defensive fronts into submission, play after play, with one of the all time great running backs who needed to be defended, and a qb who was extremely accurate when not pressured, which he rarely was.

In this sport, it is so damned difficult to separate the individual player performance from the context in which the performance occurred, which is what makes the game so interesting, in my opinion.

(edit) And it is the 5 sluggers, of today's Cowboys' roster, which I think is the most important parallel with the Cowboys offense of a quarter century ago (good grief, where did 25 years go?).

13
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 11:08am

Yup - JJ seems to be lucking into a decent offense again. Why didn't he listen to his own instincts and draft Manziel.

I always think the crazy thing about the Cowboys 1990 o-line is that on drafting Steve Wisnewski in 1989, they immediately traded him to the Raiders where he just went to Pro Bowl after Pro Bowl and made the All-Decade 2nd team with Larry Allen as its other guard.

17
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 12:22pm

That bunch started making the playoffs in 1991, and won their 3rd Super Bowl in 1995. These are the guys who had substantial number of starts on the o-line in that span...

Tuinei
Stepnoski
Gogan
Gesak
Newton
Williams
Allen
Kennard
Donaldson

....Kennard, who had 20 starts, was the worst of them, and he was still at least average. The others ranged from really good to HOF quality. Williams was probably the best tackle in the league until he hurt his knee in the 1994 car wreck, and even after that he was still really good. That was the heart of that team's success, in my opinion.

18
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 1:49pm

Dallas' offense was good. Novacek was also the 5th TE in 1992 and 4th in 1994 and 1995.

Even Daryl Johnson was a well-above average RB by DVOA and DYAR standards.

9
by collapsing pocket :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 9:58am

Poor Melvin. Never had a chance this week. Smashed between the hammer of McCoy's ultra conservative play calling and the anvil that is the Bronco's front 7. At least he didn't fumble.

10
by lokiwi :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 10:35am

Any idea what Brady's 1st/2nd half DYAR splits look like? He seemed to be struggling with the pressure through the first half, but looked unstoppable in the second.

11
by Pen :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 10:51am

You made an error. In 2015 Rawls was #1, not Lynch.

12
by douglasdwise :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 11:08am

Yeesh. In addition to the above, the Jags actually won the game by a point.

14
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 11:28am

Persoanlly overcame that roethlisberger game to egt my fantasy twam to 5-1

15
by jjohnson177 :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 11:42am

As a Miami fan, I am far from a Tannehill apologist, but he had a TD pass in the red zone called back due to an illegal formation and had a TD dropped (I think by Sims) in the endzone when it hit the receiver in the facemask. Miami left 15 points on the field (3 field goals inside from inside the 15 and a blocked 24 yard field goal).

16
by Jamestown3 :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 11:49am

How did LeSean McCoy finish with 10 Receiving DYAR off of one reception for 2 yards on 4 targets? Was that one reception a 4th down conversion or something?

19
by Travis :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 2:25pm

He drew a 22-yard pass interference that isn't included in his catch/target statistics.

20
by tuluse :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 2:29pm

Vince, would you mind sharing Jeffery's and Meredith's DYAR for the past game?

21
by osoviejo :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 2:35pm

LARM? Is LA ambiguous? Sorry for mentioning it, but I just can't help myself.

22
by osoviejo :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 2:36pm

Ah, Raiders in the DB I guess. Now I'm -really- sorry for mentioning it.

23
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 2:38pm

Could very well be next year.

Five years ago, I didn't expect LA to have two teams and San Francisco to have none.

26
by Eddo :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 3:18pm

Didn't the 49ers just get a new stadium? I don't think they're going anywhere soon.

(If you mean "Santa Clara isn't San Francisco"... well by that logic, New York (City) has no teams, either.)

28
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 5:04pm

Santa Clara is 43 miles from San Francisco. MetLife is 14 miles from city hall.

43 miles is like arguing that Princeton is a NYC college.

35
by bravehoptoad :: Thu, 10/20/2016 - 3:25pm

Does Princeton consider itself a suburb of NYC?

24
by TomC :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 2:45pm

How big is Fitzpatrick's opponent adjustment? Because he looked really, really, really bad, not replacement-level.

25
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 3:16pm

Proofreading:
"Ezekiel Elliott is have a tremendous rookie season."
"Ohio Stateleads"
Dalton comment: "From the second quater onwards"

Yeesh. In addition to the above, the Jags actually won the game by a point.

Marshawn Lynch didn't finish #1 in DYAR in 2015, you meant Thomas Rawls. Mistake is made in both the table and the ext.

These have been fixed. The Lynch one was funny -- I live in Seattle and do a Seahawks podcast and still had that brainlock. Just goes to show how quickly Rawls burst onto the scene, and how quickly he has faded into the background this year.

Any idea what Brady's 1st/2nd half DYAR splits look like? He seemed to be struggling with the pressure through the first half, but looked unstoppable in the second.

32 DYAR first half, 156 DYAR second half.

Vince, would you mind sharing Jeffery's and Meredith's DYAR for the past game?

Jeffery: 2 DYAR
Meredith: minus-4 DYAR

Jeffery had five first downs in the first half, but just one catch for 3 yards on six targets in the second. Meredith had five failed completions and four incomplete targets -- no other player had more failed targets this week.

How big is Fitzpatrick's opponent adjustment? Because he looked really, really, really bad, not replacement-level.

40 DYAR, second only to Ryan against Seattle.

27
by tuluse :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 3:40pm

Thanks Vince!

31
by Ten Drink Drunk :: Wed, 10/19/2016 - 2:30am

What podcast do you do Vince?

32
by Vincent Verhei :: Wed, 10/19/2016 - 3:04am

Locked on Seahawks, part of Utah Jazz play-by-play guy David Locke's podcast network. Short daily podcasts on your every team, so if you're not a Seahawks fan, fear not, your team is covered.

https://audioboom.com/channel/locked-on-seahawks

https://audioboom.com/channel/locked-on

29
by fyo :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 5:15pm

I like how these quick reads totally ignore what actually happened in the games and focus totally on the stats without context. For example, saying that Ryan Tannehill was useless in scoring situations is pretty dumb when there were two huge dropped touchdown passes (plus another that was called back for an illegal formation penalty that the Dolphins coach was so pissed at the refs about he was waving photos of it in their faces).

30
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 10/18/2016 - 6:36pm

You are correct. This is the stat analysis column. And we know that it is impossible to separate any individual player's performance from that of his teammates. It would have been more accurate to say "Tannehill and the Dolphins were useless in scoring range." From our methods page:

That means that when we say, "In 2014, Marshawn Lynch had a DVOA of 23.1%," what we are really saying is “In 2014, Marshawn Lynch, playing in Darrell Bevell’s offensive system with the Seattle offensive line blocking for him and Russell Wilson selling the keeper when necessary, had a DVOA of 23.1%."

33
by fyo :: Wed, 10/19/2016 - 4:38am

And that they certainly were, at least in the passing game.

These two dropped TDs got me thinking, does your charting data include where on the field the pass was dropped? According to your "product page", it isn't in the data that subscribers get access to, but is it something that your game charting includes?

34
by Vincent Verhei :: Wed, 10/19/2016 - 5:08am

I think it's something we could find at the end of the season by cross-referencing the play-by-play and charting data, but it's not something readily available.