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» Seventh Day Adventure: Week 13

The biggest game this week is the Iron Bowl, where the playoff hopes of Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia hang in the balance.

24 Oct 2016

Week 7 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

"STRENGTHS Consistent winner and tough. Scouts say his teammates and coaches see through deficiencies and trust the competitiveness above all else. Has NFL size. Benefited from playing in a pro­style attack. Has adequate mobility and is unafraid to pull the ball down and get tough yards to extend drives. Extremely bright person. Doesn't always look pretty, but finds ways to make winning plays in adverse situations. Doesn't get cute and feeds his top talent. Tasked to manage the offense and did just that. Smart and self­aware. Understands his strengths and weaknesses and doesn't take very many low percentage chances. Was the most accurate short-yardage passer in Pac-12 at 76.7 percent."

That, in part, is how Kevin Hogan was described on NFL.com heading into this year's draft. And if you knew nothing else about him, you'd think he was big ("NFL size") and intelligent ("extremely bright," "smart and self-aware," plus, you know, he went to Stanford), if not the most attractive guy you've ever seen (did they have to say "doesn't always look pretty" AND "doesn't get cute?").

The words that have proven to be most prophetic, though, are "Has adequate mobility and is unafraid to pull the ball down and get tough yards to extend drives." That was shown on Sunday, when Hogan unexpectedly did something that has been done only a couple of dozen times in NFL history.

Hogan was a four-year starter in Palo Alto, but statistically he was rarely more than an average quarterback in the Pac-12, usually getting outshone by top-two draft picks Marcus Mariota or Jared Goff, later-round picks like Sean Mannion or Brett Hundley, or even his current teammate Cody Kessler. Although he went 36-10 as a starter with the Cardinal, including multiple conference championships, his passing mechanics left a lot to be desired. Ben Muth, an all-Pac-10 tackle during his time at Stanford and the author of our Word of Muth offensive line analysis column, liked Hogan's competitive spirit. But when Cian Fahey (the Film Room guy) said Hogan threw "an ugly-looking football," Muth admitted that Hogan was "an all-time grenade chucker," and that comparisons to great Stanford quarterbacks of the past were ridiculous.

Hogan was not expected to be highly drafted, and thus he was not listed in our QBASE projections. And in fact he was not highly drafted, falling to the Kansas City Chiefs in the fifth round, the tenth quarterback off the board. He failed to stick in Kansas City, getting cut before training camp, but then signed with Cleveland's practice squad the very next day. And there, in a normal season, he would have stayed, but 2016 has been no normal season, particularly not in Cleveland. Already this year, the Browns have lost Robert Griffin and Josh McCown to injury; signed, played, and released Charlie Whitehurst; shuffled Terrelle Pryor from wideout to quarterback and back again; and given Kessler (whom they drafted in the third round) an extended tryout as a starter.

In Sunday's game against the Bengals, with Pryor nursing a gimpy hamstring, the Browns experimented with Hogan as an option quarterback. It was never meant to be a full-time thing, and Hogan would come in for one play at a time before returning to the bench. And then Kessler suffered a concussion, and suddenly there was Kevin Hogan, for one afternoon the primary quarterback in an honest-to-God NFL football game. And though he wasn't entirely useless as a passer -- he did pick up a pair of third-down conversions with his arm -- it was that "adequate mobility" that made the biggest impact. Hogan had two 15-yard runs as a read-option gimmick, then a 28-yard touchdown and two 16-yard gains on scrambles out of the pocket. When all was said and done, Hogan had 104 yards on seven carries. That's actually more yards than the 100 he had on 24 pass attempts, but between the two it was just enough to put Hogan in some exclusive company.

Sunday's game was just the 36th time since the birth of the AFL in 1960 that a quarterback (or any player) has thrown for at least 100 yards and run for at least 100 yards in the same game. For comparison's sake, there have been 36 games of 476 or more passing yards in the same timeframe, and 36 games of 227 or more rushing yards. Hogan is the 20th member of the 100-100 club -- remarkably, three of them (Hogan, Pryor, and Griffin) are currently on the Browns' payroll. Michael Vick, naturally, leads the way with eight 100-100 games. Russell Wilson is next with four, while Randall Cunningham, Donovan McNabb, and Cam Newton have three each. Nobody else has done it more than once.

Does Hogan have any shot at becoming the sixth player to go for 100-100 in multiple games? Honestly, not much. Though Griffin is almost certainly out for the year and Whitehurst has come and gone, Hogan is still third on the depth chart behind Kessler and McCown. And though Hogan may wind up starting this Sunday against the Jets (who are having their own quarterback issues these days), he'll go back to the bench as soon as Kessler recovers from his concussion, or McCown's broken collarbone has healed enough to let him see the field. At least Pryor seems set as a full-time wideout now.

So Hogan's tenure as a starter, if it even happens, is likely to be quite short. That's one reason he's unlikely to go 100-100 again. The other issue is that Hogan does, in fact, throw an ugly looking football, and he is an all-time grenade chucker. In passing numbers alone, he was one of the worst quarterbacks of Week 7, and he didn't even throw a pass in the first 25 minutes of the game. Remember Hogan's pre-draft strengths we listed at the beginning of this article? Well, NFL.com listed his weaknesses too, and they were lengthy:

  • "Mechanics and footwork are a mess. Throws with a very wide base, a pitcher's stride and a protracted delivery. Ball rarely comes out of his hands cleanly."
  • "Plays flat­footed in the pocket with little bounce as he scans field and does a poor job of re­setting and coming to balance before delivery."
  • "Below-average arm strength and struggles to consistently make accurate, catchable throws to the field side."
  • "Average at reading defenses, preventing him from getting ball out on time."
  • "Needs much more poise and pocket awareness. Had issues climbing and sliding to clean areas of the pocket when they were there."
  • "Drops eyes and immediately panics when pressure is mounting in his face. Took sacks he had no business taking."
  • "Hogan will need time and coaching to try and improve his mechanics and footwork if he wants to have a shot to be an NFL backup."

Unless he makes major strides as a passer, Hogan may never get another chance to show what he can do as a rusher. So no, he is unlikely to ever join Vick, Wilson, and the other quarterbacks who hit 100-100 twice. It's much more likely that he will join Virgil Carter, Jack Concannon, and Johnny Manziel (yes, another Cleveland quarterback) as one of the lesser-known one-hit wonders.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Drew Brees NO
37/47
367
3
1
1
188
188
0
KC
The magic range for Brees came 10 to 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. On passes to receivers at that distance, Brees went 9-of-10 for 151 yards and nine of his 20 first downs. On third downs, he went 10-of-12 for 96 yards and seven first downs, though one of those incompletions was a pick-six. Mostly, though, he was tremendous at getting New Orleans into scoring range, and then converting those opportunities. On Kansas City's side of the field, he went 16-of-19 for 159 yards and 12 first downs, including three red zone touchdowns.
2.
Andrew Luck IND
27/39
353
3
0
2
170
161
9
TEN
Luck killed the Titans with deep passes, going 9-of-14 for 219 yards on passes that traveled more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage.
3.
Aaron Rodgers GB
39/56
326
3
0
2
115
109
6
CHI
Rodgers' average gain is a little muted because he threw 16 passes in the red zone alone, completing 11 of them for only 45 yards, but three touchdowns and two other first downs. On third and fourth downs, he went 11-of-14 for 78 yards and eight first downs, with a 15th pass resulting in a DPI for 18 yards and another first down, though he also had a sack-fumble.
4.
Jameis Winston TB
21/30
269
3
1
2
114
114
0
SF
First quarter: 2-of-5, 42 yards, one first down, one sack, one interception, minus-52 DYAR, which was bottom-five among quarterbacks this week. Rest of game: 19-of-25 for 227 yards, with 16 first downs and one sack.
5.
Tom Brady NE
19/26
222
2
0
0
107
102
5
PIT
A strange, streaky game. He started off 11-of-12 for 109 yards and five first downs, plus another play that would have been a first down, but Chris Hogan fumbled it away. And he finished 4-of-5 for 91 yards and four more first downs. But he failed to pick up a first down in between, going 4-of-9 for 22 yards in the process.
6.
Andy Dalton CIN
19/28
308
2
0
3
90
90
0
CLE
Dalton's good day was really A.J. Green's good day. When Dalton was not throwing to Adriel Jeremiah, he went 11-of-20 for 139 yards and only five first downs, plus three sacks.
7.
Alex Smith KC
17/24
214
2
0
0
85
85
0
NO
Smith never threw a pass in the red zone, but then, he didn't have to, not with a 46-yard touchdown pass to Spencer Ware and a 38-yarder to Tyreek Hill.
8.
Matthew Stafford DET
18/29
266
1
0
3
75
62
14
WAS
9.
Ryan Tannehill MIA
15/25
204
1
0
1
74
74
1
BUF
More than half of Tannehill's yardage came on three plays: a 26-yard catch by Jarvis Landry in the first quarter, a 21-yarder to Landry in the third, and a 66-yard throw to Kenny Stills on Tannehill's last pass of the game.
10.
Trevor Siemian DEN
14/25
157
1
0
0
56
56
0
HOU
11.
Matt Ryan ATL
22/34
273
1
1
3
52
55
-3
SD
12.
Carson Palmer ARI
29/49
342
0
0
4
46
42
4
SEA
If you watched Sunday night's game, you are probably wondering how on earth Palmer could rank this high. The answer is two-fold. First, opponent adjustments. Seattle's pass defense is outstanding, and Palmer gets more than 50 DYAR for playing them. Second, the game went to overtime, and in overtime Palmer went 5-of-10 for 124 yards and five first downs (he had only nine in regulation), good for 63 DYAR.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Philip Rivers SD
27/44
371
1
1
4
29
29
0
ATL
By DYAR, Rivers was much more effective in the fourth quarter and overtime (45 DYAR) than in quarters 1 to 3 (minus-16 DYAR). Really, though, the difference comes down to two early plays: a fumble (returned for an Atlanta touchdown) and an interception. He actually averaged more yards per dropback (8.8) early than he did late (5.5), though his success rate climbed from 48 percent to 57 percent.
14.
Derek Carr OAK
23/37
200
1
0
0
28
30
-2
JAC
Oakland threw a lot of screens against Jacksonville, with little success. On passes to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, Carr went 8-of-11 for 20 yards with no first downs and only one successful play: a 6-yard gain on first-and-10.
15.
Kirk Cousins WAS
30/39
301
1
0
2
27
42
-15
DET
Remember, everyone: Detroit's defense sucks. Cousins loses 66 DYAR this week to opponent adjustments, most in the league.
16.
Cody Kessler CLE
9/11
82
0
0
0
23
30
-7
CIN
Only two of Kessler's throws traveled more than 3 yards past the line of scrimmage. But he completed both of them, for gains of 13 and 8 yards.
17.
Brian Hoyer CHI
4/11
49
0
0
0
22
22
0
GB
How predictable was Chicago's offense early in this game? Only one of Hoyer's passes came on first down -- and that was on first-and-15.
18.
Tyrod Taylor BUF
14/28
221
1
0
4
20
7
13
MIA
Taylor's last pass of the third quarter was a 67-yard touchdown to Marquise Goodwin that put the Bills ahead 17-6. Then, in the fourth quarter, he went 4-of-14 for 54 yards with two first downs and two sacks, and the Bills eventually lost 28-25.
19.
Russell Wilson SEA
24/37
225
0
0
1
20
29
-9
ARI
If you watched Sunday night's game, you are probably wondering how on earth Wilson could rank this high. The answer is two-fold. First, opponent adjustments. Arizona's pass defense is outstanding, and Wilson gets nearly 50 DYAR for playing them. Second, the game went to overtime, and in overtime Wilson went 7-of-8 for 104 yards and four first downs (he had only three in regulation), good for 72 DYAR. And yes, I did copy-and-paste this from Carson Palmer's comment and change the specific numbers, because it was the same story for both men.
20.
Geno Smith NYJ
4/8
95
1
0
2
19
12
8
BAL
Smith's 69-yard touchdown to Quincy Enunwa was a highlight, but he had just one other first down all day. He had four third-down passes, all with 6 yards or less to go, and converted only one of them.
21.
Marcus Mariota TEN
23/37
228
2
0
3
9
4
5
IND
Remember, everyone, Indianapolis' defense sucks almost as bad as Detroit's. Mariota took the second-biggest hit from opponent adjustments this week behind only Kirk Cousins.
22.
Landry Jones PIT
29/46
281
1
1
0
0
0
0
NE
At the start of the fourth quarter, the Steelers trailed just 20-13 and were very much alive. But in the fourth, Jones went 9-of-20 for only 54 yards and two first downs. The longest of those nine completions gained only 9 yards.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ
9/14
120
1
0
3
-3
-3
0
BAL
Fitzpatrick came out all pissed off and guns a-blazin', going 4-for-4 on his first drive for 46 yards and three first downs, including a touchdown. Then he settled down and reminded everyone why he had been benched, going 5-of-10 for 59 yards but only two first downs the rest of the way, with three sacks. Like his unfortunate teammate Geno Smith, he struggled on third downs, going 3-of-6 for 39 yards and only two conversions, with two sacks. He failed to convert five third downs with 6 yards or less to go. This, Ryan, is why everyone has lost faith in you.
24.
Eli Manning NYG
24/37
196
0
0
0
-13
-13
0
LARM
Third downs: 3-of-11 for 32 yards and only two first downs.
25.
Carson Wentz PHI
16/28
138
1
2
0
-26
-27
1
MIN
Wentz's first half was disastrous, with only four first downs, two interceptions, and a fumble. But he was quite good in limited action in the second half: 7-of-8 for 85 yards and five first downs, plus a 5-yard DPI and a fumbled snap. Wentz was also one of four quarterbacks this week to get a boost of 50 DYAR or more from opponent adjustments (Carson Palmer, Brock Osweiler, and Sam Bradford were the others), and Russell Wilson just missed at 49 DYAR.
26.
Blake Bortles JAC
23/43
246
1
2
1
-74
-83
8
OAK
Well, Bortles got himself another garbage-time touchdown, this one still leaving Jacksonville down by multiple scores with less than five minutes to go. But this does not mean he was effective in scoring range. Inside the Oakland 40, he went 5-of-13 for 24 yards (not a typo) with two first downs and one interception.
27.
Kevin Hogan CLE
12/24
100
0
2
2
-84
-130
46
CIN
Hogan converted his first third-down pass, a 5-yard completion to Terrell Pryor on third-and-5, and his last, a 17-yard completion to Gary Barnidge on third-and-10. In between, he went 0-for-4 with a pick.
28.
Brock Osweiler HOU
22/41
131
0
0
1
-89
-82
-7
DEN
I'd like to thank NFL Research for doing my job for me: Osweiler's 3.2 yards per pass attempt vs. Denver is the third-fewest in a single game by a player with 40-plus attempts in the Super Bowl era. The only players worse than Osweiler: Jesse Palmer and Bruce Gradkowski. Other names in the bottom ten include rookie Peyton Manning and Joe Flacco and Eli Manning in the years they won Super Bowls, so let's not bench Osweiler just yet. On the other hand, it was Osweiler's third game this season with at least 40 passes and fewer than 5.0 yards per attempt. Since the birth of the AFL in 1960, only one quarterback has thrown so many passes with such little efficiency more often in a complete season: Joey Harrington, who did it four times in his second season in 2003. Osweiler is one game away from that record and it's not even Halloween.
29.
Matt Barkley CHI
6/15
81
0
2
1
-113
-113
0
GB
6-15-81-0-2 pretty much speaks for itself, right?
30.
Colin Kaepernick SF
16/34
149
1
1
4
-121
-163
42
TB
Kaepernick's first two passes resulted in gains of 24 and 17 yards. Those were his two longest completions of the day, and the only time all day he picked up first downs on back-to-back throws. He also fumbled on two of his four sacks.
31.
Joe Flacco BAL
25/43
248
0
2
1
-128
-118
-10
NYJ
Midway through the third quarter, the Ravens were up 16-14, and had a second-and-13 at their own 39. Flacco then threw interceptions on two of his next three passes. Counting those three throws, he ended the game completing just eight of his final 19 passes, gaining 33 yards and only two first downs in the process. In the entire game, not once did he throw a pass in the red zone.
32.
Case Keenum LARM
32/53
291
1
4
3
-133
-138
4
NYG
The Rams might well have won this game if they had just taken the deep ball out of their playbook. Keenum threw 13 passes that traveled at least 14 yards past the line of scrimmage. The Giants caught more of those passes (four) than the Rams did (three, for 97 yards).
33.
Sam Bradford MIN
24/41
224
1
1
6
-143
-143
0
PHI
How bad was this game for Bradford? He get the biggest boost from opponent adjustments this week, and he's still last. Bradford became the 16th man to fumble four times in one game on Sunday (Michael Vick, Mark Sanchez, and Colt McCoy have done it twice each -- in only 25 starts, in McCoy's case), and he also threw an interception. He also did some serious stat-padding at the end of this game. With the Vikings down by 18 points and less than five minutes to go, Bradford completed each of his final nine passes for 90 yards and four of his 11 first downs, including his one touchdown.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Jeremy Hill CIN
9
168
1
2/2
24
0
82
68
13
CLE
Hill had five first downs on the ground, including a 74-yard touchdown and gains of 40 and 20 yards. And all of his carries gained at least 1 yard. He joins Colin Kaepernick and Maurice Jones-Drew as the only players since 1960 to run for at least 150 yards on fewer than 10 carries. And all three of his catches were successful too, including first downs on second-and-5 and second-and-10.
2.
Matt Forte NYJ
30
100
1
4/4
54
1
79
47
32
BAL
Forte averaged 3.3 yards per carry, had only four first downs, and had a fumble. I was sitting here trying to find the mistake in his numbers when I realized he was playing the Ravens, who have been tremendous against the run this season. As a result, he goes from minus-30 YAR rushing, to plus-47 DYAR. His catches included a 13-yard touchdown and a 31-yard gain on second-and-8.
3.
Jay Ajayi MIA
28
214
1
1/1
2
0
67
70
-3
BUF
You probably saw Ajayi's 53-yarder in the highlights, but he had nine runs that gained at least 10 yards against the Bills. Only 17 other runners have so many 10-plus-yard runs all season. Meanwhile, he was hit for no gain or a loss just three times.
4.
David Johnson ARI
33
113
0
8/13
58
0
51
40
11
SEA
Johnson, like Forte, gets a massive boost from opponent adjustments -- from minus-2 rushing YAR to 40 rushing DYAR. His 14-yarder on third-and-25 in the fourth quarter was his only gain of 10 or more yards, he had only six first downs, and he was hit for no gain or a loss eight times. He added three first downs as a receiver, including two third-down conversions.
5.
LeGarrette Blount NE
24
127
2
1/1
7
0
42
40
2
PIT
Eight first downs on the ground, including gains of 11 (twice) and 25 yards, while getting hit for no gain or a loss four times.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Jay Ajayi MIA
28
214
1
1/1
2
0
67
70
-3
BUF
2.
Jeremy Hill CIN
9
168
1
2/2
24
0
82
68
13
CLE
3.
Matt Forte NYJ
30
100
1
4/4
54
1
79
47
32
BAL
4.
David Johnson ARI
33
113
0
8/13
58
0
51
40
11
SEA
5.
LeGarrette Blount NE
24
127
2
1/1
7
0
42
40
2
PIT


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Chris Ivory JAC
5
48
0
2/4
3
0
-33
-12
-21
OAK
Fourty-two of Ivory's rushing yards came on his only first down, while he was hit for a loss once and also fumbled.


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
LeSean McCoy BUF
8
11
0
0/0
0
0
-20
-20
0
MIA
Two of McCoy's carries lost yardage, none gained more than 4, and none counted as successful plays.


Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
A.J. Green CIN
8
8
169
21.1
1
82
CLE
Seven of Green's receptions went for first downs; the other was a 6-yard gain on first-and-10. Two gained exactly 48 yards, including his Hail Mary touchdown at the end of the first half.
2.
Julio Jones ATL
9
15
174
19.3
0
56
SD
Eight first downs on the day, capped off by a 50-yarder, plus two other catches of 20-plus yards.
3.
Davante Adams GB
13
16
132
10.2
2
52
CHI
First ten targets: seven catches, 61 yards, two first downs. Last six targets: six catches, 71 yards, six first downs, including both touchdowns.
4.
Rob Gronkowski NE
4
4
93
23.2
1
50
PIT
Every catch went for a first down, two were third-down conversions, and two gained 30-plus-yards.
5.
Russell Shepard TB
5
6
77
15.4
1
49
SF
All of Shepard's catches went for first downs, and three were third-down conversions.


Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Alshon Jeffery CHI
3
11
33
11.0
0
-42
GB
Each of Jeffery's catches gained exactly 11 yards and a first down. But the eight incompletions included a pair of failed third-down throws.

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 24 Oct 2016

76 comments, Last at 27 Oct 2016, 1:21pm by ssereb

Comments

1
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 4:10am

Wonder if Osweiler still feels the $2 million extra per year he gets from the Texans is worth it?

2
by rfh1001 :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 5:15am

He might well not - he's living in a world where wealth is more or less abstract. But on the other hand, it must be hard to turn down millions of dollars.

In fact, I'm pivoting. It's easy to say the wealth is abstract because it's abstract to us, and we think there's really no difference between being fabulously wealthy forever and being a bit more fabulously wealthy forever, but if it's literally not abstract for him. He is weighing the difference between sums of money and none of us are in that position. I am guessing that, by any rational standards, most of us live lives of unimaginable luxury in either global or historical terms and yet we would mostly want a bit more.

This is a boring and old argument. I am sorry. I am waiting around for some papers to be delivered.

7
by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 9:11am

At this point, I wonder how fortunate the Broncos feel that he turned it down?

John Elway has done some really great things as GM of the Broncos, but whatever he may say in future, or however it is spinned, he wanted Osweiler back.

Osweiler would probably be better in Denver than he has been in Houston, but then again Siemian is no worse, very easily better, and far cheaper.

29
by BroncFan07 :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 11:43am

Best play by Osweiler last night was the 4 yard out he tried to throw on 4th and 10. That's a minus 6 on the ALEX scale, right?

Sometimes you need luck. Elway offered Osweiler a lot of money and he turned it down. Sometimes the best deals are ones other people bail you out of.

30
by doktarr :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 12:22pm

Let's also not forget that Elway completely screwed up the CJ Anderson signing. He offered him the 1.7 million dollar tender, gambling that nobody would sign him at that level. If Elway had offered Anderson the 2.5 million dollar tender, then Denver would have gotten a second round supplemental pick as compensation if Anderson walked, which would have been fine. In all likelihood nobody would have matched. Instead, CJ got a big offer, and Elway felt compelled to match. So now CJ has 7.6 million guaranteed and a 4 year deal.

So basically, in an effort to save 800k, Elway ended up paying CJ an extra 5 million. This was a very bad gamble - if you're willing to pay that much over 2.5 million, you should offer the 2.5 million. Elway's done a lot of good stuff, but he's not perfect.

35
by Tracy :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 1:41pm

Certainly Elway's made some mistakes--he drafted Osweiler when Russell Wilson was still available. But to be fair, the tender decision on Anderson was made when the Broncos were still trying to fit both Miller AND Osweiler under their cap. Denver's available salary cap space looked very different by the time Elway had to decide whether to match Miami's offer sheet to CJ Anderson.

38
by doktarr :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 2:42pm

As long as a GM makes generally good picks I have a hard time faulting them for Osweiler-over-Wilson type stuff. The draft is super hard and it's impossible to make the best pick every time. Osweiler wasn't a great pick but he wasn't a bust either. Overall Elway's done extremely well in the draft.

I still think the CJ Anderson move was a straight blunder, though. The salary cap thing explains why he was looking to save pennies, but I'd rather accept that I would cut an extra veteran than take that risk. It was still a dumb gamble and the Broncos lost a lot more than they stood to gain. It's really the only glaring mistake Elway's made. You could bring up the Dumervil fax-gate thing, but that arguably falls next to the non-Osweiler signing in the "the best deals are the ones you don't make" category.

41
by Hummingbird Cyborg :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 3:31pm

Why do you say that? I mean, I think that Elway has definitely managed with other pass rushers, but Dumervil has been a good player for Baltimore for a reasonable rate.

49
by doktarr :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 4:24pm

I guess my argument would be that Dumervil makes no difference in the 2014 Super Bowl, and Ware has been better than Dumervil in the subsequent years. But upon reflection I basically agree that it's not like it would have been that bad for the Broncos to have kept Dumervil instead.

47
by Tracy :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 4:08pm

The Anderson tender may have been a blunder. It's just not clear to me that it was. If you assume Elway applied the low tender on Anderson with the hope of having him play on that tender, then you're right, it was a foolish gamble with little chance of success. I think there's an explanation that fits Elway's demonstrated track record better: perhaps Elway didn't see Anderson fitting under the cap even at $1.7m (presuming Osweiler signs), and he fully expected Anderson to receive some kind of offer that he wouldn't be able to match.

If we look at the known facts in this (purely speculative) light, we see a GM doing right by a player who doesn't really fit into the team's plans, while still preserving for himself an out should those plans change.

50
by doktarr :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 4:28pm

This is, at best, an extremely generous reading of the situation. It's not as though Anderson would be a bad fit on the team if Osweiler signs. The difference between the $2.5M and $1.7M price tags is basically cutting one other veteran player; it's a manageable thing.

Knowing that Anderson was valued at $18M/4 years given no Osweiler, it's basically impossible to imagine he wasn't valued at $2.5M with Osweiler, even if that means cutting somebody else. So that really only leaves one other explanation, which is that Elway thought nobody would match the $1.7M tender. He tried to save $800k and ended up losing 5 times that much.

52
by Tracy :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 4:47pm

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, then. Cheers.

36
by BroncFan07 :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 1:44pm

I can't remember if it was McDonough or Gruden who openly pondered whether Elway was a better GM than QB. I mean, he's done a lot of good things as GM so far, but let's not get carried away yet.

8
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 9:20am

Probably.

He already has a ring and is QB of a team whose legacy QB is Matt Schaub, not John-Peyton ManElway.

Let me put it this way, his mourners should learn to play very small violins.

10
by collapsing pocket :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 9:35am

Why wouldn't he? He's not a good QB, and I don't think the move from Denver to Houston is what made him a bad QB. If he's going to suck, might as well suck with $8 million extra in his pocket.

12
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 9:56am

Very good point. In football, in particular, where health is risked so significantly, one should never be cavalier about making a few million dollars more.

16
by deus01 :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 10:14am

Well probably he wouldn't look quite as bad if he had stayed with Denver since they are a much better team overall. This may have led to additional sponsor deals which would have offset some of the extra money in the contract.

60
by Bobman :: Wed, 10/26/2016 - 3:02am

@ collapsing pocket #10 I'm not sure I'm sold on that. Nobody actually thinks they suck, and guys like this have been hearing how great they are all their lives. I bet a whole lot do their own version of Lightning McQueen's "You are speed" self-pumping monologue before games.
I am sure he felt it would be easier to perform out from under the Elway-Manning shadow and he could make it work anywhere. Both teams have good Ds, a decent run game, an excellent WR... so why not go for more money?

As a Colts fan, am I happy he's in HOU and they spent a lot on him? Yes. Would he be able to understand my comfort with that? Probably not.

57
by herewegobrownie... :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 10:25pm

It's not #2MM after you account for how CO has income tax and TX doesn't.

(Houston metro's high sales and prop taxes cancel some of this out but at that income level probably not much of it.)

3
by Topas :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 7:01am

As always, interesting stuff. Just two comments.

First, Hogan might be that bad a passer in the first game, because he had only very few practice with actual passing, especially with the first team. And I assume, his job was, don't make mistakes and just run with ball. So not exactly a scenario where somebody can show he is a good passer. So I am looking forward to the second game, hopefully he really starts and the we can assess his worth as a passer better IMO. Disclaimer: I liked Hogan coming out of college :-)

Second, I really dislike the streakiness assessments in the QB table. Why is that information? Is it probably that a player is good for a certain time, then becomes an idiot and then becomes good again? Or is it rather that many of his incompletions happen to fall in a specific time period. Which happens all the time when you are looking at several QBs. I do understand that it is difficult to write something for all the QBs, so this is really a minor problem, and I just skip over it. I just wanted to mention it so that you receive some feedback.

Otherwise good stuff and I love this site.

58
by LionInAZ :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 11:28pm

The scouting report said that Hogan was a terrible passer in college, where he presumably had a lot more practice. Bad college passers rarely become good pro passers.

4
by PatsFan :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 8:08am

I know it won't last, but how crazy is it that Gronkowski is leading the league in yards per catch, at 22.1, almost halfway through the season. Don't expect to see a TE in that position.

6
by Otis Taylor89 :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 8:51am

Maybe because he's not a TE - he's a freak.
He missed 2 playoffs due to injury and played injured during a SB - the Pats would have at least one more SB victory and possible 2 more, if he were healthy during that period.

13
by RickD :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 9:57am

What a strange comment.

Bad Gronk for getting injured! Bad Gronk!

I am continually amazed at how many different things are cited as the cause for the loss of Super Bowl XLVI. Usually it's Welker's fault for not perfectly executing a 270-degree rotate-and-catch. Now it's Gronk's fault?

I still think the lack of any real pass defense was the biggest problem.

14
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 10:03am

I kind of agree with you about pass defense failings being the Patriots biggest issue, but I don't think the comment was meant to illuminate any "fault" of Gronk's.

61
by Bobman :: Wed, 10/26/2016 - 3:06am

Yeah, Will/RickD, I felt that comment was meant to highlight just how potent he is. i.e. if he had been there, they'd have two more rings because of him.

We all know injuries happen, but specimens like him... not so often, if ever.

15
by Otis Taylor89 :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 10:09am

He suffered a high ankle sprain in the AFCCG and had to have surgery with a 2 1/2 month recovery time after SB. He had one of if not the greatest seasons in TE history in 2011 and you are saying it had no effect on their SB performance? He was used as a decoy the entire game and had 2 catches.If you think Chase Blackburn or Michael Boley could cover a healthy GRonk at his full superpowers then you are out of your mind.

19
by Mr.Steak :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 10:40am

No one was getting mad at him for being hurt. It's not really a strange comment. Considering the fact that the Giants were held to 15 up until the last minute of that game, the defense wasn't really the issue. Gronk not being at full strength was definitely a bigger problem. He helps improve the blocking and obviously is their best receiving threat. It is not unreasonable to think that the Patriots would have scored more or held the ball for more time to prevent a comeback with a fully healthy Gronk. A better pass defense could have helped too. There were a lot of things that went wrong in that game in order for the Giants to win.

24
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 11:33am

Depends on the injury. He's probably somewhat complicit in his 2012 forearm fracture and its lingering effects tghrough the 2013 season due to the multiple revision surgeries required because he couldn't avoid bar fights or maintain hygiene protocols.

21
by Eddo :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 10:52am

Who's blaming Gronkowski for getting injured? The poster you replied to just said that the Patriots might have won two more Super Bowls if he was healthy.

9
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 9:31am

He's played 4 games in any real sense and has 17 catches -- let's slow our roll. He was just shy of that pace after four games last year, too. (20 catches for 19 per)

Ladarius Green (which I will always initially pronounce as Lardarius, sadly) and the immortal Evan Moore have managed the 15/20 in the last 6 years, too.

Interesting mix of players, really.
http://pfref.com/tiny/GB0HF

39
by PatsFan :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 2:48pm

Did you notice the phrase "I know it won't last" in the original post?

5
by Otis Taylor89 :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 8:48am

As fun as the Sunday Night game was to watch, last nights game was terrible. I know Osweiler is limited as a QB and Denver's D is very talented, but Bill O'Brien's offensive play calling wasn't very imaginative. No jet sweeps, no putting WR in backfield, etc.

Oh,and did I meantion Osweiller is limited?

23
by Hang50 :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 11:11am

As a Denver fan, I was not particularly sad to see Osweiler leave. On his best day, he's an average passer and decent runner.

He had nearly his entire rookie contract to learn the NFL craft, most of the time being able to learn from Manning, whose knowledge of the position is perhaps unparalleled. That's the sort of intro to the league very few QBs get these days. His starts last year, regardless of O-line issues, left me underwhelmed.

Whether Siemian or Lynch has a higher ceiling than Osweiler remains to be seen, but I doubt that either has a significantly lower floor.

11
by Hummingbird Cyborg :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 9:48am

Osweiler has played some terrific pass defenses. I mean, that doesn't excuse his level of suck, but it does help explain it.

62
by Bobman :: Wed, 10/26/2016 - 3:09am

The Colts take issue with that!
Excluding the miraculous 4th quarter (after 2 DBs left the game) he was distinctly pedestrian against the worst in the game. Only after they got worster did he appear competent, tie the game, and win it in OT.

17
by Otis Taylor89 :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 10:26am

I look at AJ Green and Julio Jones at the top the ratings seemingly every week and I had to go back to that 2011 drft. Outside the 3 mediocre QBs that were taken way too early because they were QB's, that may be the greatest draft in sports history.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_NFL_Draft
26 players from that draft have gone to the Pro Bowl and there are probably 7 near locks for HOF.

18
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 10:39am

Will be interesting to how it compares in the longterm with the 83 draft which has 7 players IN the HoF and 34 others who made the Pro Bowl. Four of those Pro Bowlers came from the lower rounds which would now be UDFAs. But of course today's Pro Bowl is much less important and easier for players to drop out of. Didn't they get down to the 11th best QB last year.

Which 7 players do you see as locks from the 2011 draft? Because I see JJ Watt's name and maybe Von Miller but I don't see many locks unless they have another five years at the same level.

20
by Otis Taylor89 :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 10:50am

Yeah, "Lock" was a little strong, since this is their 6th season (I wouldn't even call Miller a lock) and should have said 6, if they continue on their current course: Newton, Miller, Watt, Green, Jones and Sherman.

22
by DrunkenOne :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 11:00am

Peterson and Smith are pretty close too I'd guess. Peterson has been a top 3 CB on top of his return game, and Smith is poised to be a top 3 LT for his entire career. Once Joe Thomas eventually retires (who knows, since he is still crushing and only 31) he will arguably be the best LT in the league and he is only 25! He could be playing another decade

But ya, insane draft

28
by theslothook :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 11:38am

Best draft ever imo. Hall of fames are silly, but this draft produced a ton of all pro talent. Even beyond the headlining first round, it was deep with lots of gems.

27
by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 11:38am

That top-6 from the 2011 draft is staggering.

Marcell Dareus is the worst player - a guy who's made pro-bowls - and it isn't close. Every one of the other 5 may make the hall of fame.

Let's not discount the '07 draft. There was no QB to give it lasting power (JaMarcus went #1), but had Megatron, Joe Thomas, Peterson, Revis, Willis, and Marshawn Lynch as players who have shots at the HOF (I wouldn't put Lynch in personally).

It had a bunch of other very capable multiple-time pro bowlers as well: Lawrence Timmons, Reggie Nelson, Jon Beason, Joe Staley, Ben Grubbs, Greg Olsen, Eric Weddle, LaMarr Woodley, Ryan Kalil, Marshal Yanda - and that is all from the first three rounds.

25
by theslothook :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 11:35am

A few thoughts: I feel like everyone is being way to harsh with brock. I believe he has still not started a full seasons worth of games and yet people are already declaring what he is. Its not that i believe in Brock necessarily. Its just, if he were a rookie, we'd be more forgiving. And note, Flacco is even more egregiously overpaid and not a word about how consistently awful he has been for a long time now. Shouldn't we be killing newsome over it?

59
by ssereb :: Wed, 10/26/2016 - 12:40am

Considering the QBs picked after FLacco in 2008 (Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Matt Flynn, Colt Brennan, and John David Booty are the notable names), we should probably not be killing Newsome over it. Especially considering how good Flacco has looked during his stretches of competence.

68
by Eddo :: Wed, 10/26/2016 - 10:12am

I think the thing that you can criticize Newsome for is Flacco's current contract. Certainly drafting Flacco is a point in Newsome's favor.

69
by BJR :: Wed, 10/26/2016 - 10:41am

Nobody should be killing Newsome for drafting Flacco. But for extending him in the way they did.....

Edit: the original poster is dead right about Flacco. This isn't just a slightly shaky, below average performance so far this season - it's downright awful. Yet it doesn't seem to be generating much attention. Good QBs simply don't endure extended stretches this bad. How close is he to being benched?

70
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Wed, 10/26/2016 - 10:44am

Easy to criticise Newsome but it was a horribly tough situation.

Obviously Flacco got superhot at the right moment. If he got hot a year before or after, he wouldn't have had the contract leverage and Newsome could have resigned him cheaper.

It's not like when Newsome had Trent Dilfer at QB. Remember how Newsome ditched him after the previous SB win. Flacco is a decent, above average starter - I think at the time I would have rated him somewhere in the #8-12th best group. He definitely wasn't elite but replacing him isn't going to be easy.

If Newsome franchised Flacco, he's probably not in any better position come the next contract and potentially Flacco refuses to sign a longterm contract because of the tagging.

And, as Houston showed this year, you can guarantee that even if Newsome wasn't willing to pay Flacco like an elite - another team would.

Superficially Elway's situation looked similar this year but firstly Osweiler is currently average at best and secondly the Broncos strength is their defense. The Ravens defense in 2012 was at the end of its era with Lewis, Reed and others due to retire.

72
by BJR :: Wed, 10/26/2016 - 1:24pm

It was a tough situation for sure, and it probably wasn't foreseeable that Flacco's play would fall off a cliff to the extent it has this year.

Still, there's no denying that he hasn't come close to justifying his contract, and is now looking like a serious burden to the team.

74
by theslothook :: Wed, 10/26/2016 - 2:11pm

I was being sarcastic about killing Newsome. I agree with what was said above, Newsome was in an incredibly tough situation and faced a total PR disaster if he let Flacco walk. I also believe the second contract was meant to smooth out ghastly figures from the first contract and so it was throwing good money after bad.

I think it was more - why does the media/everyone seem to be unaware of just how awful Flacco has been. I'm not ready to call that the new normal for him since I've seen a grand total of one game of his this season; but it should be a big concern. Maybe a Ravens fan can give more insight into whats going on, but the game I saw of his was pretty awful in all of the ways we think of bad qb play.

76
by ssereb :: Thu, 10/27/2016 - 1:21pm

For me as a Ravens fan, it's not that I'm unaware of how bad he's been but I'm willing to ride it out for a few reasons.

1. The receivers aren't great and the offensive line has been banged up.
2. Trestman's offense was bad and now Marty is installing a new one. Whether it'll be good or not is somewhat immaterial since the transition will be rough anyway. When the Ravens changed OCs the Super Bowl year, the first few games were rough.
3. Flacco's gone through some pretty brutal stretches before and bounced back.

26
by coremill :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 11:36am

" Michael Vick, naturally, leads the way with eight 100-100 games. Russell Wilson is next with four, while Randall Cunningham, Donovan McNabb, and Cam Newton have three each. Nobody else has done it more than once."

This is true for the regular season. But Kaepernick has two 100-100 games in the playoffs (giving him 3 total), and McNabb has one (giving him 4 total).

37
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 2:10pm

I wonder if Pryor can pull off a 50-50-50 game. Only Walter Payton and Tom Tracy have managed that.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/198512220det.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/196009240dal.htm

45
by jefeweiss :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 3:51pm

I think you could come up with some plausible scenarios where he would have a 100/100/100 game. Let's say he catches a couple of deep balls and runs a reverse in the first half of a game and ends up with > 100 yards receiving and maybe 50 rushing for the first half. Hogan gets injured after half time and he plays QB. 100 yards passing isn't out of the question and 50 yards on scrambles or QB draws wouldn't be too out of reach. That would really be something.

48
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 4:19pm

Pryor is the most likely. Sneaky candidates would be Edelman or Taylor. Taylor had a 109-76-4 game last year.

31
by Ryan :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 12:39pm

Bravo to the Colts GM and coaches. Luck has elevated his play this year to what we expected he could produce, and the team around him has degenerated to such an extent that it (almost) all goes for naught.

63
by Bobman :: Wed, 10/26/2016 - 3:17am

I blame Andrew Luck for his team sucking. After all, Ryan Grigson, Professional GM (tm) has a job of making a whole team, and if Luck cost him too much, then Grigson cannot make that team. So he publicly states his case, sure that everyone on planet earth with 4-6 brain cells, will agree with him and pity him for having that selfish shit Luck as his QB.

/sarcasm

After Grigson said that, I would have kissed Irsay if he fired him. That is a completely disqualifying comment from a GM in my book. "oooh, my QB is to expensive for me to put a team together. Waah waah waah!" Then why not let him walk and see how successful you are with all that surplus cash to spend on guys like Brock Osweiler or Jay Cutler, fathead? What an effing pansy.

Okay, full disclosure: I would have kissed Irsay for firing him a year ago as well. Damn, my wife will be unhappy to hear I have a latent thing for Irsay....

65
by Will Allen :: Wed, 10/26/2016 - 5:09am

Well, a man with a briefcase full of cash is SO sexy........

66
by Will Allen :: Wed, 10/26/2016 - 5:12am

Seriously, though, I am making myself ignore all things NFL between Chicago and Cleveland, because I keep repeating myself, and in the same irritated fashion.

71
by tuluse :: Wed, 10/26/2016 - 11:01am

You could really make that an inclusive set and not miss anything this year.

32
by Led :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 12:43pm

Re: Geno, not that it matters now because his season and Jets career is over, but two of his 3rd down incompletions were catchable balls that would have been first downs. One, in particular, was a perfect pass and just dropped. The second required B. Marshall to stretch a bit but it was catchable as it was and, it seemed to me, was thrown where Marshall should have been anyway. Other than taking a stupid sack (resulting in his injury), he played pretty well. I wouldn't be surprised to see Geno sign with a team with a good coaching staff (in a smaller media market) and end up as a decent QB -- a good backup and passable spot starter. What's Foles' contract status in KC? That would be an ideal spot for Geno next year.

40
by mehllageman56 :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 3:20pm

Agree with this (PFF had Geno with a decent score over 70, Fitz with a 50), but Geno already is a passable spot starter. Andy Reid could make him good, if he could get him to dump the ball off more. The irony is, the Chiefs passed on him with the first pick and might still get Good Geno if it works out like that.

The other question is how many voodoo dolls Fitzpatrick has in his closet, and did he study Anthropology at Harvard? The plot line is starting to remind me of Fritz Leiber's novel "Conjure Wife".

33
by Noah Arkadia :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 1:19pm

Interesting writeup about Hogan. It's interesting to know there's only been 36 games with over 100 rushing and passing. All the while, however, I was wondering about Ajayi's back-to-back 200-yard rushing games, so I looked it up. Only O.J. Simpson, Earl Campbell and Ricky Williams have done it before. Pretty amazing for a guy who wasn't even firmly entrenched as the starter, for whatever reason, until, well, last week. On a team that was stinking out the joint, to boot.

34
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 1:24pm

I listened to Robert Mays podcast, and he seems to think Akamai languished at the bottom of the depth chart because he was angry that he was asked to play significant time in the 4th preseason game, and delivered a "mail in" performance. Any truth to that?

43
by Noah Arkadia :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 3:49pm

He was in the doghouse early, no doubt. He didn't make the trip to Seattle on Week 1. I thought it was because he was unhappy about Foster being named the starter and Gase disciplined him, but maybe it was what you said or a combination of the two.

42
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 3:40pm

well, guy was good at boise state. should've gone higher in draft. signgin a. foster moronic move by folphisn. ajayi mucyh better runner. foster hasn't been worth anything since several years ago.

44
by Noah Arkadia :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 3:50pm

Agreed about Foster. It's almost like there was a moron making decisions in there somewhere.

54
by nosoop4u :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 5:38pm

The amazing part is how unlikely a candidate he was to get the 2 straight 200y games.

Ajayi never had more than 48 yards in any of his previous NFL games (13 in total), and hadn't had double digit carries in a game other than the game just prior to his first 200 yard game.

Campbell exceeded 48 yards in 31 of 36 regular season games to start his career, prior to his 2 straight 200y games in games 37 and 38.

Ricky Williams exceeded 48y in 41 of his first 49 games, prior to his 2 straight 200y games.

OJ exceeded 48y in 41 of 61 games to start his career, before the first time he had 2 straight 200y games for the first time (he did it twice, in '73 and '76).

There's no way anybody could say they saw Ajayi being able to reel off consecutive 200y games, based on what he'd done in his career to date.

46
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 4:04pm

Second, I really dislike the streakiness assessments in the QB table. Why is that information? Is it probably that a player is good for a certain time, then becomes an idiot and then becomes good again? Or is it rather that many of his incompletions happen to fall in a specific time period. Which happens all the time when you are looking at several QBs. I do understand that it is difficult to write something for all the QBs, so this is really a minor problem, and I just skip over it. I just wanted to mention it so that you receive some feedback.

Fair enough, but you could say this about any player's comment. We're talking about a handful of plays per game here, whether you break it down by pass length, field position, game time, etc. We're just offering little snapshots here of how/when/where a player (and his teammates) performed well or poorly in a specific game, not writing his biography.

" Michael Vick, naturally, leads the way with eight 100-100 games. Russell Wilson is next with four, while Randall Cunningham, Donovan McNabb, and Cam Newton have three each. Nobody else has done it more than once."
This is true for the regular season. But Kaepernick has two 100-100 games in the playoffs (giving him 3 total), and McNabb has one (giving him 4 total).

Indeed. Thank you.

Interesting writeup about Hogan. It's interesting to know there's only been 36 games with over 100 rushing and passing. All the while, however, I was wondering about Ajayi's back-to-back 200-yard rushing games, so I looked it up. Only O.J. Simpson, Earl Campbell and Ricky Williams have done it before. Pretty amazing for a guy who wasn't even firmly entrenched as the starter, for whatever reason, until, well, last week. On a team that was stinking out the joint, to boot.

I thought about writing about Ajayi, but by Monday I had seen that factoid 200 times and didn't think I had anything more to add to the subject.

53
by Otis Taylor89 :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 5:05pm

The most amazing thing about Ajayi running for 200 back to back is that he was the 1st non Heisman winner to do it.
OK, not really amazing...

64
by Bobman :: Wed, 10/26/2016 - 3:30am

I was going to list a whole slew of Heisman flops in the NFL and say they agree with you, but the list of QB Heisman flops is much larger than the list of RBs who failed to make the grade. Jason White, Eric Crouch, Chris Weinke, Danny Weurffel, Charlie Ward (well, not really a failure if you never put on pads). I guess Ron Dayne was an under-performer but the semi-recent RB list is topped by Rashaan Salaam in 1994.

Otherwise, the short list of Heisman RBs drafted since in the last two decades had a fair amount of 200/200 potential. Bush was more likely to "pull a McCaffrey" and combine rushing, receiving, and return yards, while Eddie George was more of a bruiser. Ricky Williams had a few high points in his career (pun intended).

55
by Noah Arkadia :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 6:48pm

I suspected as much. It's probably more about me not watching almost any talking head shows or analysis. In any case I believe nosoop4u just wrote the rest of the article a few posts above. How unusual is it for a back to run for 200 before running for 100, let alone running for 200 twice, let alone twice in a row.

73
by SandyRiver :: Wed, 10/26/2016 - 1:52pm

200 with no prior 100s is probably unusual, though it occurred in 2014 with the Jonas Gray experience. His 201 against IND (natch) represents 34% of his career rushing, and he had only 2 other games reaching even 50 (86 and 62, both also in 2014.) How unusual is it for a 200-yd rusher, uninjured, to get none in the next game, and a total of 3 carries in the 3 games after the big one? (And be released not too long after.)

51
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 4:41pm

Amusing-at-least-to-me point about Russell Shepard; this is his fourth year in the league, and his five catches on Sunday represent a full third of his career catch total. The guy has been a really good special teams player who's just now getting a chance to play some WR with the Vincent Jackson injury.

Amusing-at-least-to-me second point about Russell Shepard; the Fox sideline reporter for Sunday's game was Jennifer Hale, which means Jennifer Hale was talking about Shepard.

Mass Effect fans will understand.

56
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 10/25/2016 - 8:58pm

That was the deepest of deep dives, but as a Mass Effect fan, I appreciated it.

67
by Jerry :: Wed, 10/26/2016 - 6:44am

Proofreading:
"Although he went 36-10 as a started with the Cardinal"
"an all-Pac-10 tackle during his time Stanford"
'Muth admitted that Hogan as "an all-time grenade chucker,"'
"Rodgers' average gain is a little mute" moot
"Smith never threw a pass in the red zone, but then, he didn' have to"

75
by Vincent Verhei :: Wed, 10/26/2016 - 4:46pm

Fixed. Thank you.