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08 Nov 2016

Week 9 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

The Atlanta Falcons opened Week 9 with an explosive 43-28 win over Tampa Bay on Thursday night, a fireworks show that set the tone for a weekend full of shootouts. That includes Indianapolis' 31-26 win in Green Bay, the Raiders 30-20 victory over Denver to claim first place in the AFC West on Sunday night, and the Chargers' spectacular 43-35 win over Tennessee. For sheer number of offensive plays that produced massive chunks of yardage in one snap, though, it's hard to beat New Orleans' 41-23 win over San Francisco. DuJuan Harris had runs of 16 and 19 yards for the 49ers, while Colin Kaepernick had completions of 20, 22, 31, 31, 47, and 65 yards. The Saints had their share of big plays too -- Drew Brees had five completions of 20 or more yards (and two more of exactly 19 yards), while Mark Ingram added a 75-yard run.

It was a game and a day that got us thinking: just what is a big play, and what's the best way to count or measure them? Is one 40-yard run any better or worse than two 20-yarders? Is a 20-yard play really that much bigger than one that gains 19 yards, or do we count the first as a big play only because we have an arbitrary fondness for numbers that end in a zero? And down and distance have to play a role too -- in Kansas City, for example, Nick Foles hit Charcandrick West for a 24-yard gain that still came up 10 yards short of a first down on third-and-34. Should we really count that as a big play?

I have had an idea kicking around my head since the offseason about big plays, and how to define, measure, and analyze them. The basic concept is to divide all offense yardage into two categories: those yards that move a team towards (or, in the cases of sacks, stuffs, and penalties, pull a team away from) the first down, and those that are accumulated after the first-down line has been crossed. I like to call these extra yards. So a 2-yard gain on third-and-1 has 1 extra yard. A 15-yard gain on third-and-5 includes 10 extra yards. A 9-yard gain on first-and-10 is a good play, but it produces zero extra yards. All incompletions and sacks also produce zero extra yards. By this definition, there can never be negative extra yardage on a play -- extra yards either happen or they don't, and once gained they don't go away.

This seems like a reasonable method for counting the total yardage gained on big plays, but we still need a concrete definition of what is and is not a big play if we want to measure their frequency. Rather than arbitrarily set a designation at 10 or 20 or 30 yards, I propose this definition: a play counts as a big play when it gains a first down, then gains enough yardage after that to effectively grant the offense at least one more first down on top of that. In other words, all plays that gain at least 10 extra yards count as big plays, because by their nature they basically produce two first downs at once. This definition of big plays is more liberal (I realize that's a tricky word to use at this point in American history, but work with me here) than you'll find most anywhere else, but it uses a rational process that appeals to my way of thinking rather than just using big, round numbers.

Unfortunately, we have run into a bit of a data collection bug that prohibits me from measuring Week 9 data at this point, but the numbers from the first eight weeks of the season still paint a vivid picture of which players have (and have not) produced big plays for their team. We'll start, as we often do, with the quarterbacks:


Best and Worst Big-Play Passers, Weeks 1-8, 2016
Big Passes Extra Yards Best Big Play Rate* Best Extra Yard Rate*
Name BP Name EY Name BP% Name EY/Play
2-M.Ryan 44 2-M.Ryan 1,266 12-T.Brady 16.2% 12-T.Brady 4.84
8-K.Cousins 43 8-K.Cousins 1,129 2-M.Ryan 14.6% 2-M.Ryan 4.19
14-A.Dalton 38 14-A.Dalton 1,065 17-R.Tannehill 14.3% 17-R.Tannehill 3.92
12-A.Luck 37 9-D.Brees 1,051 8-M.Mariota 13.4% 8-K.Cousins 3.38
17-P.Rivers 36 17-P.Rivers 1,047 8-K.Cousins 12.9% 7-B.Roethlisberger 3.36
8-M.Mariota 36 4-D.Carr 1,024 4-D.Prescott 12.4% 14-A.Dalton 3.31
4-D.Carr 36 12-A.Luck 997 7-B.Roethlisberger 12.1% 9-D.Brees 3.29
9-D.Brees 34 17-R.Tannehill 905 17-C.Keenum 12.0% 17-P.Rivers 3.29
12-A.Rodgers 34 9-M.Stafford 901 14-A.Dalton 11.8% 17-C.Keenum 3.27
17-R.Tannehill 33 10-E.Manning 870 12-A.Rodgers 11.5% 4-D.Prescott 3.21
* Minimum 100 pass plays (including sacks and DPIs); 32 players qualified

As you might expect, there is a lot of crossover between big plays and extra yardage, especially at the extremes, but the correlation is not perfect. Marcus Mariota and Aaron Rodgers both make the top 10 in total big plays, but not in extra yardage, which suggests the Tennessee and Green Bay offenses could still use true home-run threats at receiver. Meanwhile, Matt Stafford and Eli Manning are both in the top 10 for extra yardage, but not in big plays, which I think shows how inconsistent both quarterbacks can still be.

When we look at rates of big plays and extra yardage, we see how much more explosive Tom Brady has been than anyone else since returning from suspension -- he's way ahead of everyone, including Ryan. On the other hand, this is likely due in part to some small sample-size issues -- Brady had only 142 pass plays (including DPIs and sacks) in the season's first eight weeks, the fewest of any quarterback who still qualified for this table. Schedule likely also has something do with this. Brady has played the Browns, Bengals, Steelers, and Bills, none of whom ranked higher than 18th in pass defense DVOA heading into Week 9.

Two names stick out as major surprises on the rate list. First of all, take a gander at Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins quarterback is having his share of struggles this season, mostly with interceptions and sacks, but he's certainly making some highlight plays too. That surprise, though, is nothing compared to Case Keenum! Keenum has been on the hot seat since Jared Goff was drafted last spring, and every Rams punt seems like it will be the final nail in Keenum's coffin. But in between those punts (and interceptions, second-most in the league), every once in a while, Keenum and the Rams have gone boom, more often than most teams and quarterbacks have done so.

And now, because we are mean, here are the worst quarterbacks at producing big plays and extra yardage:


Worst Big-Play Passers, Weeks 1-8, 2016
Worst Big Play Rate* Worst Extra Yard Rate*
Name BP% Name EY/Play
17-B.Osweiler 7.2% 17-B.Osweiler 2.11
2-B.Gabbert 7.3% 2-B.Gabbert 2.20
5-T.Taylor 7.6% 11-C.Wentz 2.31
5-J.Flacco 7.7% 5-T.Taylor 2.46
11-C.Wentz 8.1% 5-B.Bortles 2.48
13-T.Siemian 8.2% 5-J.Flacco 2.50
11-A.Smith 8.4% 3-C.Palmer 2.53
3-J.Winston 8.6% 8-S.Bradford 2.54
3-C.Palmer 8.6% 3-J.Winston 2.55
10-E.Manning 8.8% 13-T.Siemian 2.56
* Minimum 100 pass plays (including sacks and DPIs); 32 players qualified

This is an interesting mish-mash of names. Brock Osweiler and Joe Flacco are having a strong battle this season for World's Most Overpaid Quarterback. Blaine Gabbert, Tyrod Taylor, and Trevor Siemian could all be described as bargain-basement options at the position. Carson Wentz and Alex Smith are both here partly due to their own failing, but also partly due to offensive schemes that have them throwing a barrage of short perimeter passes. That separates them from Jameis Winston, who has been a huge disappointment in a scheme that is built around lobs to Mike Evans and company. Carson Palmer's name is a shocker -- he likely would have finished first in both these categories in 2015. And then you've got a pair of erratic veterans in Eli Manning and Sam Bradford.

While we're talking about the passing game, it only makes sense to examine the game's best big-play receivers too. These numbers only include wide receivers and tight ends, since they catch the vast majority of big passes, while many running backs only ever get targets as desperation dumpoffs.


Best Big-Play Receivers Weeks 1-8, 2016
Big Catches Extra Yards Best Big Catch Rate* Best Extra Yard Rate*
Name Team BC Name Team EY Name Team BC% Name Team EY/Tgt
89-A.Cooper OAK 18 18-A.Green CIN 471 81-A.Hooper ATL 45.5% 81-A.Hooper ATL 11.64
18-A.Green CIN 17 11-J.Jones ATL 464 87-R.Gronkowski NE 36.7% 87-R.Gronkowski NE 10.50
11-J.Jones ATL 17 89-A.Cooper OAK 423 15-C.Hogan NE 29.6% 15-C.Hogan NE 9.70
13-T.Hilton IND 13 11-M.Jones Det 395 82-D.Walker TEN 27.9% 14-S.Coates PIT 8.69
84-A.Brown PIT 13 13-O.Beckham NYG 366 85-V.Davis WAS 26.9% 10-K.Stills MIA 6.66
14-J.Landry MIA 12 13-T.Hilton IND 351 14-J.Nelson GB 24.0% 83-B.Quick LARM 6.55
11-M.Jones DET 12 11-D.Jackson WAS 328 11-J.Jones ATL 23.9% 11-J.Jones ATL 6.54
16-Ty.Williams SD 12 87-R.Gronkowski NE 315 87-E.Decker NYJ 23.8% 11-M.Jones DET 6.27
82-D.Walker TEN 12 14-S.Coates PIT 313 16-Ty.Williams SD 22.6% 13-K.Wright TEN 6.17
15-B.Marshall NYJ 11 16-Ty.Williams SD 303 14-S.Coates PIT 22.2% 85-V.Davis WAS 5.81
13-O.Beckham NYG 11 15-B.Marshall NYJ 303 18-K.Britt LARM 22.0% 18-K.Britt LARM 5.72
11-D.Jackson WAS 11 84-A.Brown PIT 293 13-K.Wright TEN 21.7% 16-Ty.Williams SD 5.72
18-K.Britt LARM 11 15-M.Crabtree OAK 291 89-A.Cooper OAK 21.7% 11-D.Jackson WAS 5.56
87-R.Gronkowski NE 11 18-K.Britt LARM 286 11-D.Parker MIA 21.6% 87-E.Decker NYJ 5.48
88-G.Olsen CAR 10 14-J.Landry MIA 284 19-A.Thielen MIN 20.0% 83-T.Williams DAL 5.45
17-D.Adams GB 10 88-G.Olsen CAR 282 17-E.Rogers PIT 20.0% 82-D.Walker TEN 5.28
88-A.Hurns JAC 10 10-B.Cooks NO 280 80-C.Rogers IND 20.0% 15-P.Dorsett IND 5.23
13-M.Thomas NO 10 17-M.Wallace BAL 279 15-W.Fuller HOU 19.6% 18-A.Green CIN 5.18
15-W.Fuller HOU 10 15-C.Hogan NE 262 88-J.Graham SEA 19.6% 89-A.Cooper OAK 5.10
15-M.Crabtree OAK 10 13-M.Evans TB 261 83-T.Williams DAL 19.4% 83-W.Snead NO 5.07
Minimum 30 targets or four big catches; 119 WRs/TEs qualified.

That's a lot of data to take in, but a few quick reactions:

  • Jarvis Landry has always been an extreme possession receiver, so it's surprising to see his name in this table.
  • Who says tight ends can't make big catches? Tight ends make up four of the top five players in big catch rate, and Jimmy Graham also makes the top 20. Austin Hooper is likely a fluke, between having a small sample size (only 11 targets, but five big catches) and playing in such a good offense, but Rob Gronkowski, Delanie Walker, Vernon Davis (full confession: I thought he had retired), and Graham have long track records of success.
  • Not only was Case Keenum ranked among the top big-play passers, but the Rams have two excellent big-play receivers in Brian Quick and Kenny Britt. Not everything in Los Angeles is broken.

And the worst receivers when it comes to big plays:


Worst Big-Play Receivers Weeks 1-8, 2016
Worst Big Play Rate* Worst Extra Yard Rate*
Name Team BP% Name Team EY/Play
85-A.Gates SD 0.0% 81-J.James PIT 0.42
81-J.James PIT 0.0% 85-A.Gates SD 0.90
13-K.White CHI 2.8% 11-J.Edelman NE 1.33
18-D.Green-Beckham PHI 3.1% 19-T.Sharpe TEN 1.48
11-Q.Patton SF 3.1% 83-V.Jackson TB 1.53
11-J.Edelman NE 3.2% 11-Q.Patton SF 1.53
19-T.Sharpe TEN 4.2% 13-K.White CHI 1.58
80-A.Boldin DET 4.4% 80-A.Boldin DET 1.69
15-M.Floyd ARI 4.5% 84-R.Griffin HOU 1.82
84-R.Griffin HOU 5.3% 11-L.Fitzgerald ARI 1.87
17-C.Conley KC 5.9% 18-D.Green-Beckham PHI 1.88
83-V.Jackson TB 5.9% 17-N.Agholor PHI 1.92
10-C.Brown CAR 6.1% 82-J.Witten DAL 1.96
11-L.Fitzgerald ARI 6.1% 11-T.Austin LARM 2.00
11-T.Austin LARM 6.2% 85-C.Clay BUF 2.10
88-M.Goodwin BUF 6.3% 86-Z.Miller CHI 2.16
83-J.Tamme ATL 6.5% 88-D.Pitta BAL 2.17
82-J.Witten DAL 6.7% 80-J.Thomas JAC 2.17
88-D.Pitta BAL 6.8% 15-M.Floyd ARI 2.18
86-Z.Miller CHI 6.8% 83-J.Tamme ATL 2.26
Minimum 30 targets or four big catches; 119 WRs/TEs qualified.

I count eight tight ends in Column A, nine in Column B. So yes, despite the names we talked about a few paragraphs back, most tight ends do not make for reliable big-play weapons.

As for the wide receivers, many of these players are victims of and/or complicit in the big-play struggles of their quarterbacks. You'll find a lot of Cardinals and Eagles in this table. Also, Tavon Austin, who is in his fourth NFL season and still looks more like a track star in pads than a reliable offensive weapon.

Naturally, big plays are a lot more common in the passing game than they are on the ground. Through eight weeks, Tennessee's DeMarco Murray led the league with nine big runs. Dallas' Ezekiel Elliott and Buffalo's LeSean McCoy were second with eight each, while nobody else had more than five. Your leaders in extra yards gained on the ground:

(EDITOR'S NOTE: Because of the technical issues with data collection, DYAR stats were not produced in time to write player comments for Week 9. We hope to resume player comments next week.)

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Drew Brees NO
28/39
323
3
0
1
147
147
0
SF
2.
Dak Prescott DAL
21/27
247
3
0
0
142
140
2
CLE
3.
Derek Carr OAK
20/31
185
0
0
2
135
133
2
DEN
4.
Matt Ryan ATL
25/34
344
4
0
2
134
161
-27
TB
5.
Russell Wilson SEA
20/26
282
2
0
4
124
112
12
BUF
6.
Philip Rivers SD
24/33
275
2
0
1
115
115
0
TEN
7.
Tyrod Taylor BUF
26/37
274
1
1
5
105
83
22
SEA
8.
Marcus Mariota TEN
27/42
313
3
2
0
74
81
-8
SD
9.
Eli Manning NYG
22/36
257
4
2
1
67
67
0
PHI
10.
Matthew Stafford DET
23/35
219
2
1
1
63
63
0
MIN
11.
Blake Bortles JAC
22/41
252
2
1
2
59
52
7
KC
12.
Mike Glennon TB
10/11
75
1
0
0
58
58
0
ATL
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Jameis Winston TB
23/37
261
3
0
3
58
73
-15
ATL
14.
Colin Kaepernick SF
24/39
398
2
1
1
47
50
-3
NO
15.
Sam Bradford MIN
31/40
273
1
0
2
17
17
0
DET
16.
Andrew Luck IND
23/36
281
1
2
2
13
12
1
GB
17.
Cody Kessler CLE
19/27
203
1
0
4
3
0
3
DAL
18.
Cam Newton CAR
20/32
225
1
0
5
-8
-3
-5
LARM
19.
Aaron Rodgers GB
26/43
297
3
1
3
-10
-13
3
IND
20.
Nick Foles KC
20/33
187
1
0
2
-23
-23
0
JAC
21.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
23/45
264
1
1
2
-27
-33
6
BAL
22.
Trevor Siemian DEN
19/37
283
2
1
2
-35
-35
0
OAK
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Case Keenum LARM
27/46
296
1
1
4
-41
-41
0
CAR
24.
Ryan Tannehill MIA
17/28
149
1
0
1
-43
-35
-8
NYJ
25.
Carson Wentz PHI
27/47
364
0
2
2
-51
-28
-23
NYG
26.
Joe Flacco BAL
18/29
241
1
1
3
-80
-86
7
PIT
27.
Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ
17/28
193
1
2
3
-97
-104
8
MIA


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Melvin Gordon SD
32
196
1
4/4
65
0
79
52
27
TEN
2.
Mark Ingram NO
15
158
1
2/2
13
1
64
43
21
SF
3.
Latavius Murray OAK
20
114
3
1/1
13
0
54
46
8
DEN
4.
LeSean McCoy BUF
21
85
0
3/4
20
0
48
36
12
SEA
5.
Jay Ajayi MIA
24
111
1
3/4
19
0
44
47
-3
NYJ


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Melvin Gordon SD
32
196
1
4/4
65
0
79
52
27
TEN
2.
Jay Ajayi MIA
24
111
1
3/4
19
0
44
47
-3
NYJ
3.
Latavius Murray OAK
20
114
3
1/1
13
0
54
46
8
DEN
4.
Mark Ingram NO
15
158
1
2/2
13
1
64
43
21
SF
5.
LeSean McCoy BUF
21
85
0
3/4
20
0
48
36
12
SEA


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Terrance West BAL
15
21
0
1/3
6
0
-50
-43
-8
PIT


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Terrance West BAL
15
21
0
1/3
6
0
-50
-43
-8
PIT


Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Robert Woods BUF
10
13
162
16.2
0
67
SEA
2.
Jimmy Graham SEA
8
8
103
12.9
2
51
BUF
3.
Julio Jones ATL
8
11
111
13.9
1
48
TB
4.
Doug Baldwin SEA
6
6
89
14.8
0
47
BUF
5.
Mike Evans TB
11
17
150
13.6
2
46
ATL


Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Tyler Higbee LARM
1
7
31
31.0
0
-34
CAR

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 08 Nov 2016

34 comments, Last at 09 Nov 2016, 2:17pm by dbostedo

Comments

1
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 12:42pm

Proofread, you have Stafford as having only 1 TD pass, when in fact, he had 2 (1 in regulation, 1 in overtime).

Also, color me sad that you didn't have time for the comments/verbal breakdown. I really enjoy those.

4
by Bryan Knowles :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 12:56pm

If I can reveal a bit of the secret sauce behind the curtain here, to mix a metaphor:

The NFL changed the way it releases it's play-by-play data to media outlets, and they did it in between weeks. It requires a little bit of backend work that we couldn't quite get done in time.

So, especially if there are any errors in the Monday night data, mea culpa--I ended up having to enter that all by hand, which, let me tell you, is a fun and exciting way to spend a Monday night.

That's why there were no comments, though--it just took longer to complete that.

Normal service shall resume shortly.

6
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 1:07pm

FYI i meant to type proofreading with a colon after it, not proofread with a comma. Now that I read it, it's making me sound like a dick, which I didn't intend to be.

Thanks for the reply. I don't get too upset when my 100% free content is incomplete once in a while. Keep up the good work!

2
by brenthutto :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 12:46pm

Maybe it's just because my first introduction to advanced stats was with baseball a few decades back. But it ought to be possible to categories "big plays" as those beyond an arbitrary threshold of improvement in expected scoring relative to the game situation.

I guess that has the problem that a 1-yard plunge over the goal line improves the expected score by quite a bit while not being intuitively what we consider a "big play".

7
by BJR :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 1:17pm

Yeah clearly the best way to approach this is to categorize plays according to win probability added. You'd still have to draw an arbitrary line to classify what a 'big play' was, but it would account for down and game situation. Of course this would be a long, painstaking process.

16
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 3:40pm

But it solves the problem of a 27 yard gain converting a 4-26 as being only worth 1 EY and not being a big play.

18
by Eddo :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 4:07pm

Yeah. With regards to the post you replied to, however, I disagree that a one-yard TD run is ever a "big play" based on the context of what the main article is trying to measure (which I'd probably call "explosive plays").

ABGT is right, though - you can't just use the extra yards. Maybe big plays should just be total yardage of plays that gain first downs? So a 27 yard gain on third-and-26 counts as 27 yards, a 27 yard gain on first and ten counts as 27 yards, but a 27 yard gain on third-and-33 counts as zero?

3
by roguerouge :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 12:55pm

This is a neat concept. I'd be curious to see more research as to whether this data measures skill consistently or if it's random.

5
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 1:05pm

I would love to know what Stafford's DYAR was with 27 seconds left in regulation, given he had about half of his traditional yardgae after that point, and likely the majority of his successful plays as well.

8
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 1:21pm

Mike Glennon comes in during garbage time and lights it up; he was really Bortling it up out there.

Just sayin', it works as a verb.

9
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 1:26pm

I prefer the UK version: "He made a Bortles out of it."

13
by PirateFreedom :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 2:54pm

I vote for "bortled" e.g. Glennon bortled his stats once the game was out of reach. :)

19
by bravehoptoad :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 4:14pm

+1

22
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 5:15pm

You can just conjugate the verb normally; I Bortle, you Bortled, Blake Bortles is Bortling it up yet again.

You know, there's KUBIAK, and then there's ALEX. All I'm saying is we should be able to come up with an acronym for this stat using the Blakester's name for an official measurable for compiling pointless stats while getting blown out.

Behind Or Routed, Totally Losing, Earning Stats?

B-O-R-T-L-E-S!

23
by tuluse :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 5:36pm

That's hilarious and awesome. *applause*

25
by Bobman :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 5:43pm

This has the potential to ascend to ROBO-PUNTER status.

Of course, the implication is the opposite of RP's insane perfection....

26
by billprudden :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 8:09pm

Yes, you sir are a god.

In other news, can this acronym be morphed with a baseball equivalent that spells Bonilla?

Bill

27
by Richie :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 8:25pm

Bring
Our
Rudderless
Team a
Long
Emergency
Score

28
by Richie :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 8:26pm

Because
Our
Rotten
Team
Lost:
Extraneous
Scores

29
by Richie :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 8:27pm

Because
Our
Rotten
Team
Lost:
Easy
Stats

32
by Vincent Verhei :: Wed, 11/09/2016 - 5:35am

These are all awesome, but I think that's your winner.

34
by dbostedo :: Wed, 11/09/2016 - 2:17pm

Because
Our
Rotten
Team's
Losing:
Easy
Stats

Better? Worse?

15
by ammek :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 3:39pm

Meanwhile, on the last couple of drives for Kansas City, the quarterback went 0-of-2 with 2 sacks and no first downs. Things were starting to get a bit Folesy.

10
by dbostedo :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 1:41pm

No comments? Geez, I know there were issues... but couldn't you have at least told us how much Bortles bortled it up (thank you MilkmanDanimal), and how overrated Derek Carr is?

11
by jtr :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 1:45pm

For whatever its worth, I would have personally preferred to see Quick Reads come out a day late and have comments than on time without them, but I certainly understand if the FO staff was burnt out from manual data entry and just wanted to be done with it.

12
by RickD :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 2:10pm

"On the other hand, this is likely due in part to some small sample-size issues -- Brady had only 142 pass plays"

That's a reasonable sample size for estimating a percentage. The standard deviation in estimating a percentage is sqrt(p*(1-p)/n), where p is the percentage and n is the number of samples. In this case it would be about 3%.

14
by Aaron Schatz :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 3:12pm

The TD totals for Stafford and Ajayi are now fixed.

20
by Noah Arkadia :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 4:54pm

That's a negative for Ajayi, who is listed with 0 rushing TDs in one table and 1 in the other.

17
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 3:43pm

What do Taylor's EP/BP stats look like with rushes added in? He has four big play rushes (for 94 extra yards, I think) by my unofficial count from the PFR play stats.

21
by Mike B. In Va :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 4:56pm

Well, at least DYAR confirms that Wilson and Taylor played on pretty close to the same level. Wilson's D was just better.

24
by Bobman :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 5:39pm

Did Robert Woods's rating include his knuckleheaded (and ticky-tack) taunting call? That's like losing 15 yards on a play (although he got the first down). Hardly flag-worthy, but as my infallible wife said, "it's always the second guy who gets flagged."

30
by MC2 :: Tue, 11/08/2016 - 8:42pm

Carr (185 yds, 0 TDs) over Ryan (344 yds, 4 TDs)? Holy Opponent Adjustments, Batman!

On a related note, how did Ryan end up with -27 rushing DYAR? I just checked, and he's listed as having 2 attempts for 0 yards. Hard to see how that equates to -27 DYAR.

31
by ammek :: Wed, 11/09/2016 - 4:49am

He fumbled twice.

33
by MC2 :: Wed, 11/09/2016 - 8:10am

Ah, I hadn't noticed that. That makes a bit more sense.