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» SDA Bowl Spectacular: Part I

Our first round of bowl games includes exciting players like Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen, a potential first-round pick in April's draft.

20 Nov 2017

Week 11 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

As you may have heard, the Buffalo Bills made a switch at quarterback. It did not go well, nor did it last long. It's what most of the football world was talking about on Sunday, and even into Monday morning. It's a good chunk of what we were talking about too. Hardly anyone, however, is talking about the wide receiver who played against Buffalo, whose very good day was overshadowed by the Bills quarterback's very bad day. In some ways, though, that receiver's day was even more historic, and for obviously more favorable reasons.

But we'll begin with that Bills quarterback. Nathan Peterman played two years at the University of Tennessee, then transferred to Pittsburgh, where he was a two-year starter for the Panthers. In his senior year of 2016, he led the Atlantic Coast Conference in yards per pass and NCAA passer rating, ahead of future first-round draft picks Mitchell Trubisky and Deshaun Watson. Still, QBASE was skeptical of his chances for NFL success. That was partly due to the weak schedule of defenses he faced, and partly because his stats were inflated by the talents of the teammates around him. (Pitt linemen Dorian Johnson and Adam Bisnowaty were both drafted, though neither has played in a game yet -- Johnson was drafted by Arizona, but failed to make the team and is now with Houston.)

Traditional media outlets were lukewarm on Peterman too. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com noted that Peterman "will have to be mindful to drive the ball on pro level to avoid the ballhawks who are lurking at safety" and that he "has to prove he has enough arm to challenge the same tight windows he did in college." Dane Brugler of NFLDraftScout.com said that Peterman's weaknesses included "erratic ball placement" and being "guilty of panicked decisions, forcing the ball into heavy coverage." In the end, Peterman ended up going to Buffalo in the fifth round, the 171st player drafted overall and the eighth quarterback to go off the boards. The Bills themselves passed on Peterman four times to select cornerback Tre'Davious White, receiver Zay Jones, guard Dion Dawkins, and linebacker Matt Milano. Peterman made T.J. Yates and Cardale Jones expendable, but there was nothing at the time to indicate he would be anything more than a backup quarterback with some developmental upside.

Less than six months later, the Bills found themselves at 5-4. Thanks in part to a hysterically shallow pool of quality teams in the AFC, they were still making a serious push to make the playoffs for the first time this century. However, they were coming off two defeats in a row, the latter a blowout loss to the New Orleans Saints. Coach Sean McDermott decided it was time to shake things up, and inexplicably chose to make a switch at quarterback. Tyrod Taylor joined the Bills two years ago, and finished among the top 20 quarterbacks in passing DYAR and DVOA in both 2015 and 2016. He had slipped a bit in 2017 -- 21st in DYAR through 10 weeks, and 20th in DVOA. Should Taylor be held accountable for that decline? Consider that his top three wide receivers in 2016 were Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, and Marquise Goodwin. Watkins and Woods are currently plying their trade for the Los Angeles Rams, who will be listed at fourth in the league in pass offense DVOA when the new ratings come out on Tuesday evening, and Goodwin is now in San Francisco. Taylor has been left trying to piece together an offense with Jones, who has often looked lost during his rookie season; Jordan Matthews, who was deemed expendable by the Eagles just three years after they drafted him in the second round in 2014; and Deonte Thompson, a 28-year-old journeyman who was released by the Bears in October. Through 10 weeks, the Bills had caught 170 passes and dropped 20 (according to Sports Info Solutions), a drop rate of 11 percent that was one of the 10 worst in football.

Regardless, McDermott had made up his mind. Taylor was the scapegoat, and Peterman was the starter. And the results were disastrous. Four of Buffalo's first five drives ended in interceptions; the other was a 64-yard touchdown drive in which Peterman had two handoffs and no passes. The Bills then went three-and-out in back-to-back possessions, recovering a Peterman fumble in the process. Finally, Peterman was intercepted once more before halftime. When the third quarter began, Peterman was back on the bench where he belonged and Taylor was taking snaps once more. Mind you, Taylor wasn't perfect either -- he fumbled on a Joey Bosa sack, and Melvin Ingram returned the ball for a touchdown -- but he did lead three scoring drives, throwing for one touchdown and running for another. The logical decision now would be to stick with Taylor through the end of the year, but if the Bills organization were capable of making logical decisions, they would not have let five presidential elections go by without making the playoffs.

Peterman's final statline: 6-of-14 for 66 yards with no touchdowns, no sacks, and five interceptions. That's very bad -- it's -215 DYAR, to be precise. But it's not the worst game of all time. It's not in the worst 50 games of all time. At this point, it's not even the worst game this year -- that honor still goes to Andy Dalton's four-interception, five-sack meltdown against Baltimore in Week 1. That game looks a lot better now than it did at the time; with updated opponent adjustments, it has jumped from -282 DYAR to -217, still a hair worse than Peterman's. The difference is slight enough that fluctuating baselines and opponent adjustments could push Peterman's game below Dalton's by the end of the year, but the bigger issue here is playing time. Dalton played every snap against the Ravens, while Peterman was benched at halftime against the Chargers. DYAR is a counting stat, and Dalton had more opportunities to rack up negative DYAR than Peterman did.

We can account for that by looking dividing DYAR by dropbacks. This should give us a reasonable measurement of who sucked the most in the least amount of plays. Dalton, for example, had -240 passing DYAR in 31 passes and five sacks, 36 total dropbacks. That works out to -6.7 DYAR per dropback. Peterman, meanwhile, had -213 DYAR in only 14 plays, a ratio of -15.2 DYAR per dropback that is more than twice as bad as Dalton's. In fact, it's worse than any game Dalton ever played. It's worse than any game ever for Blaine Gabbert, or Josh McCown, or Ryan Leaf, or any of the other horrible quarterbacks you could probably think of. In nearly 30 years of quarterback statistics, we only found two players who had -200 passing DYAR in a game, and also had a DYAR-per-dropback figure worse than Peterman's against L.A.:

  • In Week 17 of 1997, the Indianapolis Colts were playing the Minnesota Vikings and rotated Jim Harbaugh and Kelly Holcomb at quarterback in what would be their 13th loss of the season. Holcomb was worse by far, going 5-of-8 for 29 yards with no touchdowns, three interceptions, two sacks, and two fumbles. That's -231 passing DYAR in only 10 dropbacks, a breathtaking rate of -23.1 DYAR per dropback.
  • Again in Week 17, this time in 2006, the Chicago Bears had already won 13 games and clinched home-field advantage in the NFC, and they pulled Rex Grossman at halftime of a 26-7 loss to Green Bay. Grossman was pulled to save him for the playoffs, but his performance warranted a benching anyway: 2-of-12 for 33 yards with no touchdowns, three interceptions, and a sack. That's -217 passing DYAR in 13 dropbacks, an average of -16.7 apiece.

While Peterman was doing … that, Keenan Allen was having a big game for the Chargers. Allen is much more of a known commodity than Peterman. He had a tremendous rookie season in 2013, finishing eighth among wide receivers in DYAR and fifth in DVOA. Since then, however, he has struggled with injuries, missing 25 out of 48 games from 2014 to 2016 and never finishing in the top 20 in either DVOA or DYAR. Allen hasn't missed a game this year, but for the most part his production has leveled out at fair-to-middlin' -- 33rd with 75 DYAR through Week 10, and 44th with a -1.4% DVOA.

And then Allen went off against Buffalo, catching 12 passes in 13 targets for 159 yards and a pair of scores, while rushing one time for 3 yards. That gave Allen 104 total DYAR, the best game by a wide receiver so far in 2017 and just the 47th 100-plus-DYAR game we have on record. There's a good chance this will be the best wide receiver game of the year. Since 2012, only one season has seen multiple 100-DYAR games (that was 2013, when there were gobs of them -- Josh Gordon, Eric Decker, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, T.Y. Hilton, and Marvin Jones all pulled it off). And while Buffalo is on the brink of another lost season, Los Angeles has reason for optimism, both short- and long-term. At 4-6, the Chargers are just a game behind the Ravens and Bills for the final wild-card spot, with a win in hand over the Bills. (They are two games behind the 6-4 Chiefs in the AFC West and have already lost to Kansas City, so a division title remains a long shot.) And if Allen can finally stay healthy and productive, he'll be the cornerstone of a very young group of weapons in the L.A. offense -- the Chargers' top five players in catches are all 25 or younger. That will leave the cupboard full for Philip Rivers in his twilight years, or for a younger passer if one is brought in to take over the reins.

One thing is clear though: Allen had a better day than Peterman, as the following table shows:

Keenan Allen vs. Nathan Peterman, Week 11, 2017

Total Plays Abort. Snaps Att Cmp Yds TD INT Sk First downs Failed Cmp Suc% Avg Yds
Passes thrown to K.Allen 13 -- 13 12 159 2 0 -- 10 1 85% 12.2
Passes thrown by N.Peterman 15 1 14 6 66 0 5 0 4 0 40% 4.2

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Case Keenum MIN
27/38
280
1
0
0
196
186
10
LARM
Keenum is the first starting quarterback this season to play the Rams and not get sacked, and just the second to not throw an interception. Along with opponent adjustments, the lack of negative plays are the biggest reasons he ranks No. 1 this week. He was very good at moving the chains -- on third downs, he went 11-of-13 for 106 yards and eight conversions. That includes eight conversions in ten plays with 7 yards or less to go, and failures with 8, 14, and 32 yards to go.
2.
Drew Brees NO
30/41
377
2
1
2
174
171
3
WAS
Brees was on absolute fire at the end of this game. From the point Washington took a 15-point lead with about six minutes to go in the fourth quarter, Brees completed each of the 11 passes he threw for 164 yards and two touchdowns. Only one of those completions counted as a failed play: an 8-yard gain on first-and-20. Each of his last seven throws resulted in first downs, including both scores.
3.
Kirk Cousins WAS
24/32
322
3
0
2
160
166
-6
NO
Brees' opponent on Sunday had a good game too, though Cousins' results at the end of the game were strikingly different. Cousins' 7-yard touchdown to Jeremy Sprinkle put Washington ahead 31-16. Cousins didn't throw another pass until the Saints had tied the game. His next three passes each resulted in first downs, on gains of 12, 10, and 19 yards, but his last two plays of regulation were an intentional grounding and a sack-fumble. Then he had three plays in overtime: an incompletion, a sack, and another incompletion.
4.
Matthew Stafford DET
21/31
299
2
0
3
155
157
-2
CHI
Stafford went deep early and often against the Bears, with plenty of success. Eleven of his passes traveled at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Seven of them were completed for 169 yards and a touchdown; an21 eighth resulted in a DPI and 34 more yards.
5.
Philip Rivers LACH
20/31
251
2
0
1
132
132
0
BUF
When the second quarter started, the Chargers had a narrow 10-7 lead. In the next 15 minutes, Rivers went 10-of-13 for 139 yards. Every one of those completions resulted in a first down, including two scores. And the Chargers were then up 37-7 going into halftime.
6.
Matt Ryan ATL
19/27
195
2
0
1
131
126
5
SEA
7.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
30/44
299
4
0
3
114
114
1
TEN
Add Roethlisberger to the list of quarterbacks who finished on a high note this week. In the fourth quarter, he went 7-of-7 for 59 yards and two touchdowns, with an eighth throw resulting in a DPI and a gain of 13 yards.
8.
Matt Moore MIA
17/28
282
1
0
1
105
111
-6
TB
Moore entered the game with Miami down 20-7. HIs last pass was a 61-yard touchdown to Kenny Stills that tied the score at 20-20, but the Buccaneers would go on to win on a late field goal (and then get another touchdown when Miami's desperate attempt at a lateral went awry). It might not have come down to that had Moore fared better in the red zone: 2-of-5 for 5 yards and no touchdowns. (A sixth red zone throw resulted in a DPI for 18 yards down to the 1.)
9.
Jared Goff LARM
23/36
225
0
0
2
92
87
5
MIN
The Rams tried a lot of early-downs passing, but it didn't work out very well. On first downs, Goff went 7-of-12 for just 40 yards.
10.
Tyrod Taylor BUF
15/25
158
1
0
1
87
65
22
LACH
I was just going to leave a picture here of Tyrod Taylor sipping tea, but since I can't find it now, I guess I'll give you some splits instead. Every pass he threw came with Buffalo down by at least 30 points, so it's not a surprise that his best results came on medium-range throws. On passes that traveled 4 to 12 yards past the line of scrimmage, he went 9-of-9 for 83 yards and a score.
11.
Tom Brady NE
30/37
339
3
0
1
86
86
0
OAK
Without opponent adjustments, Brady would have been the top quarterback of the week, but, you know. It's the Raiders. Brady completed each of his first 12 passes against Oakland, for a total of 91 yards and a touchdown (there was also a sack mixed in there).
12.
Carson Wentz PHI
14/27
168
2
0
0
66
66
1
DAL
Wentz started out hot against Dallas, completing each of his first five passes for 71 yards. And then he went into a deep, deep freeze. From that point until halftime, he went 2-of-13 for 9 yards. Whatever was going on, it got sorted out at halftime, and his good and bad plays in the second half were more evenly distributed.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Mitchell Trubisky CHI
18/30
179
1
0
1
64
53
11
DET
One reason the Bears were so competitive with Detroit: a lack of negative plays that put them in ultra-long-yardage. Only three of Trubisky's passes came with more than 10 yards to go for a first down, and he was actually pretty productive on those three plays: a 6-yard gain on second-and-12, a 13-yard gain on second-and-15, and a 17-yard gain on second-and-18. Trubisky's counterpart on Sunday, Matthew Stafford, had 10 plays with more than 10 yards to go for a first down, tied for most in the league this week with Marcus Mariota and Drew Brees.
14.
Andy Dalton CIN
15/25
154
3
0
2
63
57
6
DEN
Dalton did a lot to put himself into critical third downs. On second downs, he went 4-of-6 for a whopping total of 12 yards with zero conversions. Fortunately, he made a bunch of big plays on third downs, going 8-of-10 for 84 yards and six conversions, including all three of his touchdowns. An 11th third-down throw resulted in 15 more yards and another first down on a DPI, though he was also sacked twice.
15.
Eli Manning NYG
19/35
205
0
0
0
58
58
0
KC
Manning's biggest play was a 34-yard completion to Roger Lewis on fourth-and-5 that set up the winning field goal. Like most of Manning's best plays on Sunday, it came on a deep pass. Manning completed four of his seven deep passes for a combined total of 88 yards. Weirdly, aside from the 34-yarders, his other three completions gained precisely 19 yards each.
16.
Ryan Fitzpatrick TB
22/37
275
2
0
1
49
51
-2
MIA
A poor day on third downs: 5-of-10 for 47 yards and only two conversions, with one sack.
17.
Russell Wilson SEA
26/41
258
2
1
3
29
-11
40
ATL
18.
Tom Savage HOU
22/32
229
2
1
1
20
20
0
ARI
Not that it was a terrible day for Savage, but it would have been even better if he had quit after his first two drives, when he went 6-of-6 for 50 yards and a touchdown.
19.
Blaine Gabbert ARI
22/34
257
3
2
2
16
17
-1
HOU
GABBERT WATCH UPDATE: Gabbert now has 17 passing DYAR on the season and -1,910 in his career, still below Josh McCown's total of -1,578 for the worst total passing DYAR on record. It would have been a lot closer, but Gabbert fell apart in the final quarter, going 8-of-15 for 100 yards with one sack, two interceptions, and no touchdowns. He was a top-five passer over the first three quarters of the game this week.
20.
Derek Carr OAK
28/49
241
1
1
1
-9
-9
0
NE
Carr's first half was miserable: 8-of-14 for 69 yards with an interception and only one first down. His first pass of the second half also resulted in a first down, but by that point the Raiders were down 24-0.
21.
Brock Osweiler DEN
23/42
254
1
1
3
-50
-45
-5
CIN
Not a good day for Osweiler throwing to his right: 5-of-16 for 47 yards with an interception.
22.
Blake Bortles JAC
17/30
154
1
0
2
-67
-74
7
CLE
Things went great for Bortles on Jacksonville's first two drives, as he went 3-of-4 for 37 yards and a touchdown. Not much went great for him after that. However, all three of his passes to tight ends worked out: a 10-yard touchdown to Marcedes Lewis, a 16-yard gain on second-and-15 to Lewis, and a 12-yard gain on second-and-10 to James O'Shaughnessy. Which begs the question: why didn't the Jaguars use their tight ends more?
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Marcus Mariota TEN
22/33
306
1
4
5
-67
-83
15
PIT
It's a good thing Mariota had a 75-yard touchdown pass to Rishard Mathews in this game, because he could barely do a thing in Pittsburgh territory. On the Steelers' side of the 50, he went 9-of-13 for 77 yards with three sacks and two interceptions.
24.
Joe Flacco BAL
22/28
183
1
1
3
-71
-71
0
GB
Flacco had 14 failed completions this week, four more than anyone else. He now has 80 failed completions on the year, eight more than anyone else.
25.
Alex Smith KC
27/40
230
0
2
1
-84
-98
14
NYG
Wanna know how to score nine points and become just the second team to lose to the Giants this year? It helps when you have a performance like Smith's inside the New York 40: 9-of-14 for only 40 yards and two first downs, plus a sack.
26.
Brett Hundley GB
22/36
239
0
3
6
-104
-111
6
BAL
We've got a lot of comments this week about guys' performance in the red zone or in opponents' territory. For Hundley, the problems actually started outside the Green Bay 40 -- you know, the other 60 percent of the field. In that range, Hundley went 5-of-11 for 53 yards with one first down, one intentional grounding, one interception, and three sacks.
27.
Jay Cutler MIA
6/12
83
1
3
0
-115
-112
-3
TB
Feast or famine for Cutler. Five of his completions resulted in first downs, and the sixth was a 7-yard gain on first-and-10. But half of his incomplete passes were intercepted. The Bucs had six interceptions in their first nine games, and then three in one half thanks to Cutler.
28.
DeShone Kizer CLE
16/32
179
1
2
5
-116
-119
3
JAC
Kizer gets a boost of nearly 100 DYAR due to opponent adjustments and still finishes this low. His first quarter was some serious nightmare fuel: sack, interception, sack, incomplete, incomplete. To be sure, he still had his struggles after that, including sack-fumbles on back-to-back plays in the fourth quarter. On third and fourth downs, he went 4-of-9 for 22 yards with three sacks, two fumbles, and just one conversion.
29.
Dak Prescott DAL
18/31
145
0
3
4
-141
-147
6
PHI
Prescott has now finished next-to-last two weeks in a row with Tyron Smith on the sidelines. Over those two weeks, he has had the NFL's worst passing statistics by more than 100 DYAR. In the red zone against Philadelphia, he went 2-of-5 for 6 yards with no touchdowns, one sack, and one interception. On third and fourth downs, he went 3-of-11 for 25 yards with two conversions, two interceptions, and one sack-fumble which was returned for an Eagles touchdown.
30.
Nathan Peterman BUF
6/14
66
0
5
0
-215
-213
-2
LACH

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Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Mark Ingram NO
11
134
1
3/4
21
0
69
68
2
WAS
All of Ingram's runs gained at least 2 yards, six gained first downs, four gained 10 yards or more, and two gained 30 yards or more. Fun fact: Ingram and teammate Alvin Kamara are now first and second in rushing DYAR this season.
2.
Jordan Howard CHI
15
125
1
0/0
0
0
44
44
0
DET
Howard's six first downs on the ground included gains of 12, 12, 16, and 50 yards. Meanwhile, he was hit for no gain or a loss just twice.
3.
Leonard Fournette JAC
28
111
0
2/3
7
0
42
56
-14
CLE
Fournette would be below replacement level without opponent adjustments, but he winds up third this week because stuffing the run is the one thing the Browns do very well. He had five first downs on the ground, including gains of 12 and 29 yards, while being hit for no gain or a loss five times.
4.
LeSean McCoy BUF
13
114
1
1/1
12
1
42
22
20
LACH
McCoy's only reception was a touchdown on fourth-and-goal from the 12. He only had three first downs on the ground, but those three plays came on gains of 27, 32, and 37 yards. He was also hit for no gain or a loss five times.
5.
Duke Johnson CLE
2
10
0
4/6
56
1
37
8
29
JAC
Johnson's two carries resulted in a 7-yard gain on first-and-10 and a 3-yard gain on third-and-2. His catches included a 27-yard touchdown and gains of 7 and 21 yards on second-and-5.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Mark Ingram NO
11
134
1
3/4
21
0
69
68
2
WAS
2.
Leonard Fournette JAC
28
111
0
2/3
7
0
42
56
-14
CLE
3.
Jordan Howard CHI
15
125
1
0/0
0
0
44
44
0
DET
4.
Alfred Morris DAL
17
91
0
0/0
0
0
27
27
0
PHI
Four first downs on the ground, including gains of 12, 20, and 22 yards, while being hit for no gain or a loss three times.
5.
D'Onta Foreman HOU
10
65
2
3/3
15
0
28
24
4
ARI
Foreman fumbled on one of his ten carries, but he still makes the top five because he touchdowns of 3 and 34 yards, plus a 10-yard gain on third-and-1.


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Doug Martin TB
19
38
0
2/3
6
0
-39
-29
-10
MIA
Only two first downs on the ground and one 10-plus-yard run, with 16 carries of 4 yards or less and seven resulting in no gain or a loss. One of his catches was a 3-yard loss on second-and-2.


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Isaiah Crowell CLE
11
18
0
0/0
0
0
-32
-32
0
JAC
This is the second week in a row the worst runner of the week has played against Jacksonville, which partly has to do with the fact that Jacksonville's run defense was terrible at the end of the year, but has been outstanding since the trade for Marcell Dareus. That said, Crowell's numbers were horrible in a vacuum: no first downs, only one successful carry (a 5-yard gain on first-and-10, his longest run of the day), and three hits for no gain or a loss.


Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Keenan Allen LACH
12
13
159
13.2
2
104
BUF
Allen's DYAR total includes 103.5 DYAR receiving, 0.2 DYAR rushing for his one carry for 3 yards. Ten of his catches gained first downs; the other two were a 10-yard gain on second-and-11 and a 3-yard gain on first-and-10. His longest catch gained 29 yards. He converted three of his four third-down opportunities.
2.
Kenny Stills MIA
7
8
180
25.7
1
59
TB
Only one of Stills' catches failed to pick up a first down: a 9-yard gain on first-and-10. He had a 61-yard touchdown and gains of 45 and 26 yards, and would have ranked even higher but he fumbled on one reception (Miami recovered).
3.
Antonio Brown PIT
10
13
144
14.4
3
50
TEN
Only one of Brown's catches did not pick up a first down: a 7-yard gain on first-and-10. He had a 41-yard touchdown and a 23 yard gain. Like Stills, he would have ranked even higher, but fumbled on one reception (Pittsburgh recovered).
4.
Rishard Matthews TEN
5
6
113
22.6
1
50
PIT
Matthews had one failed reception, a 4-yard gain on second-and-14. Each of his other catches went for first downs, the longest a 75-yard touchdown.
5.
Davante Adams GB
8
10
126
15.8
0
48
BAL
Adams had two failed receptions: a 3-yard gain on second-and-9 and a 6-yard gain on third-and-7. His other catches each gained at least 11 yards and a first down, the longest a 33-yarder.


Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
DeVante Parker MIA
4
9
26
6.5
0
-37
TB
Parker had one successful reception, a 17-yard gain on third-and-8. The others: a 2-yard gain on first-and-10; a 3-yard gain on second-and-10; and a 4-yard gain on first-and-15.

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 20 Nov 2017

75 comments, Last at 23 Nov 2017, 8:58am by nat

Comments

1
by bengt :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 8:27am

You probably shouldn't write that 'a ratio of -15.2 DYAR per dropback is more than twice as bad as one of -6.7', since DYAR has an arbitrary scale. That's like saying '-20 degree is twice as cold as -10' - is that in Fahrenheit or Celsius?

47
by bravehoptoad :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 8:20pm

My criticism of DYAR/play is this: how different is that from DVOA?

48
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 8:20pm

See comment 38!

53
by bravehoptoad :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 8:32pm

Thanks, Vince!

2
by Dan :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 8:39am

You're saying that Rex Grossman probably won't come to mind when we think of horrible quarterbacks?

3
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 9:00am

Keenum may be the NFL version of the college version of Nathan Peterman. He benefits from excellent protection, an efficient running game, excellent receivers, and a defense that doesn't give up a lot of points or long drives. If a qb doesn't look good in that context, he never will.

We'll see how long he can be provided such a favorable environment, I guess, and how quick Zimmer will be with the hook, if/when things go south.

4
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 9:34am

Peterman played with a terrible defense in college.

That's one reason he got to pass so often.

5
by Hoodie_Sleeves :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 10:19am

I didn't get to watch the Buffalo game live, but those GIFs (and other 'highlites') give some insight on them, and none of it is good.

Peterman makes terrible throws, makes poor decisions, and has terrible pocket presence. He doesn't at all look like an NFL quarterback, and the fact that the coaching staff thought he did is an indictment in itself.

But, maybe more importantly, Buffalo's offensive line is terrible.

7
by Mike B. In Va :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 10:58am

Watching the game made me wonder how Taylor isn't on IR.

8
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 11:02am

The stupidest part seems to be that McDermott decided to start a rookie against a team with one of the best pass rushes. It's standard defensive tactic to pressure and blitz rookie QBs. And that's before we talk about Buffalo's o-line.

The only conceivable explanation is that perhaps with Chargers HC Antony Lynn having been in Buffalo last year they convinced themselves that he'd be familiar with Tyrod but starting a rookie where there is no gamefilm would make it harder to defend.

That 1st interception though ... the FB is just never ready for the pass because he has to block/chip the defender who blazes past him and puts Peterman under pressure creating a poor throw. Again maybe they gameplanned to throw screen passes early to slow the pass rush but it didn't work out that way. The defense just went after him.

All that said, have to say it's been one of the most entertaining stories in the NFL for a while. Most coaches are so risk averse they wouldn't dare have done something that dumb.

9
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 11:20am

Put it in the pantheon of great NFL slogans....."Do your job" , "Just win, baby",
"America's Team"......and now.......

"Dare to be Dumb!"

17
by Mike B. In Va :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 12:44pm

https://youtu.be/SMhwddNQSWQ

Seems appropriate.

13
by Scott C :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 12:29pm

All I can think of is that now they can say "See! its not the QB, we have our guy!"

Or something like that.

But perhaps they are too smart to purposely do that, and I did not hear a lot about external pressure to change the QB. Maybe some internal part of the organization was pushing for it?

6
by Badfinger :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 10:53am

FO can't even write about the all-math objective spreadsheet calculations without a Wentz bias.

"Whatever was going on, it got sorted out at halftime, and his good and bad plays in the second half were more evenly distributed."

He went 7-9 with 2 TDs, with 5 of the completions going for 1st downs/TDs on 3rd or 4th down. He ran for one more. There was only one completion that wasn't a down success, and that was the one that was called a touchdown on the field before review overturned it. He didn't have any bad plays. If that was Ben Roethlisberger that sentence would have been something more like "...sorted out at halftime, as he was a nearly perfect 7-9 with 2 TDs the rest of the way."

Wentz played a super uneven game, but smell yourself.

16
by Aaron Schatz :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 12:39pm

I can't tell, do you want Vince to smell himself or to smell Scott Kacsmar? Because it sounds like you are complaining about a different FO writer, not the one who actually wrote this article.

22
by Hoodie_Sleeves :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 1:37pm

No, it doesn't, at all. Reread what he wrote. Its pretty clear.

Wentz had an almost flawless 2nd half. You guys wrote it up as 'more balanced' - its nonsense.

35
by Badfinger :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 4:02pm

Yes, I understand Vince writes quick reads, and most of the Philadelphia vitriol is directed towards Scott. I also understand that he doesn't watch all the games, nor should he. I also understand that DYAR and DVOA are calculated via cumulative per-play figures, which is why it's possible to relatively easily log that Wentz went 5-5, then 2-13, without having to rewatch the entire game.

I also can't help but get rankled by fact that if you replaced Wentz with, say, Brett Hundley and the chart showed he was involved in 10 second half plays and 7 were successes while his team didn't have any failed possessions until the victory formation that Vince wouldn't write the equivalent of a shrug and wagging his hand in the air to describe it.

37
by Eddo :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 5:37pm

That's a huge sign of respect for Wentz.

When Brett Hundley is successful on seven of ten plays, it's notable. But when Wentz is, that's just expected, so FO doesn't make a big deal out of it. The same way they don't say "Brady had seven successful plays out of ten in the second half" as if it's some surprise.

30
by InTheBoilerRoom :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 2:18pm

Are you claiming that Vince has some sort of anti-Wentz bias? I have never picked that up from him. He doesn't actually watch all of the games, so his little comments shouldn't be read into too deeply. I agree that his summary of the second half of being more balanced is not a good description, but there's a big gap between his poor wording and what you are accusing him of.

If you are accusing all of FO of anti-Wentz bias, that seems even more unfounded. I haven't ever felt that FO suffers from group think. The writers are scattered about the globe and are fans of different teams, and Vince is arguably one of the most neutral of any of them.

36
by jgibson_hmc95 :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 5:02pm

Yes, I find the vitriol directed at FO about Wentz weird as well. I thought FO supposedly had a pro Eagles bias.

41
by The Ninjalectual :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 7:19pm

So you're complaining that the writer wasn't fawning over Wentz as much as you believe he should be? That's a really odd thing to complain about.

49
by RickD :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 8:22pm

Yeah, that sounds like the opposite of bias.

10
by nat :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 11:24am

Without opponent adjustments, Brady would have been the top quarterback of the week, but, you know. It's the Raiders.

Okay, then. What WAS his YAR? Just how big was that opponent adjustment?

11
by ChrisS :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 11:37am

I agree showing both DYAR and YAR in the table would be nice. I don't know what Matt Ryan's adjustment was but it probably should be zero or negative since Seattle is now playing without Sherman and Chancelor, lost Griffin after 2 plays and Earl Thomas is just getting over an injury.

43
by The Ninjalectual :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 7:23pm

DVOA/DYAR do not make subjective adjustments for individual injuries. It's an objective stat

63
by ChrisS :: Wed, 11/22/2017 - 11:48am

I don't want subjective adjustments from FO. But if I see that the DYAR was 150 and the YAR was 50 I can say to myself 50-60 is a more "reasonable" estimate of the effectiveness of the QB given the current composition of the D.

28
by ammek :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 2:17pm

I imagine that Peterman got a substantial boost from opponent adjustments. His unadjusted YAR per dropback might be the worst ever – even worse than Holcomb's. Is this right?

In fact by a quirk of the schedule three of the most inexperienced QBs to start in week 11 (Peterman, Hundley, Kizer) were playing the defenses ranked, respectively, 6, 3 and 1 against the pass, and 3, 6 and 1 in adjusted sack rate. So I'm hesitant about drawing conclusions. Those defenses are capable of making more seasoned QBs look bad.

Cutler and Flacco have no such excuses.

12
by Crunchums :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 12:12pm

Why use DYAR per drop back instead of DVOA?

14
by jgibson_hmc95 :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 12:31pm

Yes, I agree. You made a stat that is intentionally to be a counting stat to account for different uses. You don't then divide it to get back to an average per play. You use your stat that you came up with initially that is basically a per play stat.

15
by Aaron Schatz :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 12:37pm

Sorry, the article originally pointed out that we don't have an easily accessible database of DVOA by game for all quarterbacks going back 25 years.

23
by Hoodie_Sleeves :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 1:38pm

How is that relevant?

If you have DYAR for these guys, don't you have DVOA?

31
by Aaron Schatz :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 2:33pm

We've created a database of single-game DYAR. That database doesn't have single-game DVOA. We would need to get it from each year's data. That takes a ton of time to compile.

42
by The Ninjalectual :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 7:21pm

Sounds like you just need more processing power. Can't you wire together 100 Playstation chips like the Air Force did? XD

18
by rj1 :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 12:50pm

If you had to pick a mascot for "negative passing DYAR, positive rushing DYAR, positive overall DYAR" for a QB, would it be Russell Wilson or Cam Newton?

27
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 2:07pm

Based on stats over the year, it would seem to be Newton or Marriota.

Wilson and Prescott are in the discussion, but have pretty positive passing DYAR.

19
by BuffaloWes :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 12:52pm

I have no idea why you wanted to use DYAR/Dropbacks when FO has an actual efficiency metric. Did it not fit the narrative?

Also, did nobody watch Tyrod Taylor vs the Jets or the Saints? He was awful. He's been awful most of this year and has been carried by an unsustainable defense.

You mention how high he ranked in DVOA/DYAR last year. Look at who's in the same group with him, luminaries such as Hoyer, Kessler, Siemian, and Bortles. Would there be an outcry if any of them were benched? The Bills' playoff odds, according to this very site, dropped by 50% in the last two weeks. When is the time to make a change, if not then?

20
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 12:55pm

Read the thread.

21
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 1:01pm

When you have somebody behind him that has a better than 10 percent chance of being better. The fact that jumping out 2nd floor window is inadvisable is not a good argument for jumping out a 5th floor window on the other side of the building, because you have a small chance of hitting the deep end of the swimming pool from that side.

24
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 1:46pm

Taylor is clearly not good enough to carry the team without a decent supporting cast (but didn't they know that when they started taking away all his weapons?). Expecting a 5th round rookie to be able to do that is ludicrous, and just makes the coaching staff look idiotic.

25
by theslothook :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 1:55pm

I'm not sure what they were thinking. As you said, Taylor isn't that good, but taking away his weapons pretty much sets him up for failure from the get go. He's frankly played way better than I(and probably McDermott) expected. I find it so hard to believe they felt Peterman gave them the best chance to win.

I would have suspected a tanking motivation, but they were the 6th seed and likely played themselves out of a top 5 pick

There is no justification for making this move in retrospect or ex ante. I lost a lot of respect for McDermott as a Coach.

29
by ammek :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 2:18pm

The defense ranked 10th when the Bills' playoff odds were high, after week 8. Two weeks later it ranked 20th.

The offense dropped too, but nowhere near as precipitously.

26
by theslothook :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 2:00pm

In Peterman's defense, the first pick wasn't his fault and three others he had instant pressure before he even hit his drop. Its not a complete excuse for the terrible throws, but it at least provides some context. I didn't see the game so I can't compare it to some other notable stickers. My personal favorite was Caleb Hanie against the Seahawks in 2011( the first year of the legion)

33
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 3:10pm

First pick:
He looks like he put too much on the throw and it may have come in a little too hot for the FB to handle. Still, I'll cut him slack for that, as he's probably juiced up making his first start, and an NFL FB should still be able to at least body catch that pass.

The second one:
Yes he was pressured, but he could have easily avoided it by climbing the pocket (this is QB101). The tackles did what they were taught to do...which is direct the outside rushers behind the quarterback. Little did they know that Peterman was going to hang out and chill at the top of his drop.

The third one is probably not on him, as he looked like he had a clean pocket just before an inside rusher clobbers him as he releases the pass.

The fourth one:
He tries to throw an out off his back foot...which is just asking for trouble unless you have Brett Favre's arm. He did have quick pressure, so maybe we'll call that 50% him, and 50% the offensive line.

The fifth one was just a terrible throw.

34
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 3:17pm

Just a side note, 2011 Caleb Hanie was one of my favorite all-time quarterback meltdowns. Not only did it derail a promising Bears season and allow the Lions to grab the 6th seed, it also provided many humorous games, such as a home loss against a bad Tyler Palko-led Chiefs team, and one of the Tebow miracle wins.

Hanie looked like a decent player in a small sample in the 2010 NFC Championship game (the infamous Cutler not looking injured enough game). He and Matt Flynn should serve as warnings about small sample sizes. It makes San Francisco giving up draft capital for Jimmy Garrapolo look questionable, and Cleveland attempting (and failing) to give up even more draft capital for AJ McCarron look positively moronic

66
by Steve in WI :: Wed, 11/22/2017 - 5:04pm

Oh god, I still have nightmares about the Caleb Hanie season. That was the tail end of the Bears having a really good defense and they would have made the playoffs with a mediocre backup who could have game-managed his way to a couple of wins.

I don't know what Garoppolo is going to be, but I feel like the fact that Belichick thought so highly of him makes me think it's slightly more likely he'll be at least a decent starter.

67
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Wed, 11/22/2017 - 5:22pm

That is true, I definitely trust Belichick more than I trust Cleveland's front office when it comes to evaluating backup quarterbacks who've barely played.

32
by Bryan Knowles :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 2:50pm

The mentioned photograph of Tyrod Taylor drinking tea that Vince could not find:

https://twitter.com/mattufford/status/932371152198094848

38
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 5:57pm

You're saying that Rex Grossman probably won't come to mind when we think of horrible quarterbacks?

He's not one I commonly think of because he was only a full-time starter for two seasons, but yeah, that was a bad example.

FO can't even write about the all-math objective spreadsheet calculations without a Wentz bias.
"Whatever was going on, it got sorted out at halftime, and his good and bad plays in the second half were more evenly distributed."
He went 7-9 with 2 TDs, with 5 of the completions going for 1st downs/TDs on 3rd or 4th down. He ran for one more. There was only one completion that wasn't a down success, and that was the one that was called a touchdown on the field before review overturned it. He didn't have any bad plays. If that was Ben Roethlisberger that sentence would have been something more like "...sorted out at halftime, as he was a nearly perfect 7-9 with 2 TDs the rest of the way."

Every week, I have a window of about six hours, maybe less, to write comments about 30-some quarterbacks, eight or nine runnings backs, and a half-dozen WRs/TEs. This means I have to skim through the spreadsheets quickly looking for trends and patterns. The easiest way to do this is to look in the "first down" column for clusters of several first downs in a row, or clusters of not-first downs in a row. Wentz's second-half plays go like this:

FD
(blank space)
FD
(blank space)
TD
(blank space)
FD
(blank space)
TD

So yeah, that looks like an even distribution of five good and four bad plays there, when you're going over something as fast as possible looking at big-picture trends. Those blank-space plays were:

* An incompletion on first-and-10.
* Another incompletion on first-and-10.
* A 6-yard gain on second-and-8.
* A 2-yard loss on third-and-3.

So it would be more accurate to say Wentz had six good plays and three bad plays.

For the record, Wentz had the best second-half DVOA in the league this week.

Wentz played a super uneven game, but smell yourself.

I have no idea what this means. Is this a regional thing? A generational thing? I'm 42, would this make sense if I was 22?

He doesn't actually watch all of the games, so his little comments shouldn't be read into too deeply.

This is also a good point. The column is called "Quick Reads," emphasis on "QUICK." If I were doing detailed, granular, precise breakdowns of every player, the column would be called "Slow Reads" and would come out on Thursday night.

Okay, then. What WAS his YAR? Just how big was that opponent adjustment?

164 passing YAR, 86 passing DYAR.

I agree showing both DYAR and YAR in the table would be nice. I don't know what Matt Ryan's adjustment was but it probably should be zero or negative since Seattle is now playing without Sherman and Chancelor, lost Griffin after 2 plays and Earl Thomas is just getting over an injury.

1) No matter how much data we put in the tables, people will always ask for more. We just don't have room for everything.

2) It doesn't work that way. Adjustments are made on what the defense has done the entire season. We don't have time or methodology to track every personnel move on every snap. I touched on this in the Isaiah Crowell comment, because Jacksonville's defense is going through the reverse process -- they have been much, MUCH better since adding Marcel Dareus. It's almost certain that Seattle's defense will continue to decline without Sherman and Chancellor (and Cliff Avril). You just have to keep these changes in mind when looking at these things. It's harder this year than most, because the gap between the good and bad defenses this year is so ridiculously huge.

I imagine that Peterman got a substantial boost from opponent adjustments. His unadjusted YAR per dropback might be the worst ever – even worse than Holcomb's. Is this right?

Actually, no. Holcomb, Grossman, and Peterman are still 1-2-3. I mean, LOOK at Holcomb's numbers compared to Peterman's. Yes, he had one fewer turnover, but also two more sacks and 37 fewer gross passing yards, on four fewer plays. As stupid as it sounded when McDermott said Peterman did some good things against L.A., it was factually true -- he did throw for four first downs.

I have no idea why you wanted to use DYAR/Dropbacks when FO has an actual efficiency metric. Did it not fit the narrative?

As Aaron mentioned, we have a list of all-time good and bad DYAR games. We do not have the same list for DVOA, and did not have time to compile one.

For all QBs with at least 100 dropbacks this year, the correlation between DVOA and DYAR/dropback is 0.9996. They are not equal, but they are very very very close.

Also, did nobody watch Tyrod Taylor vs the Jets or the Saints?

Did you watch him against the Jets the first time, or the Broncos or Falcons or Bucs? Statistically, Taylor has had six good games, two bad ones (Panthers and Raiders) and two disasters (Bengals and Saints).

Stats aren't perfect, and I'm perfectly happy to hear why you think they're over-rating Taylor here.

First pick:
He looks like he put too much on the throw and it may have come in a little too hot for the FB to handle. Still, I'll cut him slack for that, as he's probably juiced up making his first start, and an NFL FB should still be able to at least body catch that pass.

There's certainly some bad luck here with the tip, and this is more on the receiver than on the QB, but this is not a great throw. He just throws a fastball at short range into his receiver's face. Not ideal.

The second one:
Yes he was pressured, but he could have easily avoided it by climbing the pocket (this is QB101). The tackles did what they were taught to do...which is direct the outside rushers behind the quarterback. Little did they know that Peterman was going to hang out and chill at the top of his drop.

Look closely at this one -- Peterman is actually jumping backwards when releasing the ball. The pressure is not his fault, but that's one where a good QB just takes the sack, even if it's for a safety.

50
by RickD :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 8:26pm

Thank you for your detailed replies to a lot of questions.

64
by ChrisS :: Wed, 11/22/2017 - 11:55am

Vince I love your responsiveness to the comments in this article it adds a lot to the site. I understand there is not room for everything in the tables (make the font smaller :> ). I agree that FO should not make subjective changes for injuries/trades, but your comment "You just have to keep these changes in mind when looking at these things" does argue in favor of my request for DYR/YAR so I can more accurately keep things in mind.

62
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Wed, 11/22/2017 - 10:16am

“...that’s one where a good QB just takes the sack...”

I watched it many times, and I still think a good QB would have simply stepped up into a clean pocket.

39
by BJR :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 6:10pm

Given the Redskin's injury attrition on offence, Kirk Cousins performance this season continues to be exceptional. At the start of the season I would probably have said he was an average NFL QB (and still, therefore, of great value), but right now I'd have no problem putting him in the top 10, if not higher. He's going to get a monster payday, and good luck to him.

40
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 6:20pm

Yeah, I desperately want him to finish the season strong, and most importantly, be in good health. I want to see where the market has gone since Peyton was out there as a free agent with a questionable spine.

44
by The Ninjalectual :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 7:40pm

Best FA QB signings of all time:
1. Drew Brees, NO
2. Peyton Manning, DEN
3. Kurt Warner, ARZ
4? Kirk Cousins, ????

I guess the old Warren Moon and Jim Plunkett signings might be important too, but happened when I was 4 and before I was born, respectively, and so I don't know enough about them

45
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 8:04pm

The Vikings signing Favre was one that came very, very, close to delivering a Super Bowl appearance, with an excellent chance to win.

46
by The Ninjalectual :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 8:12pm

Oh you're right I forgot about that one!

51
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 8:28pm

Don't think I'll ever forget about that game in the Superdome. There have been lots of unfortunate losses for Vikings fans, in big moments, but that one will always be the worst to me.

Until they lose similarly in the Super Bowl, of course. Which I expect to happen one of these seasons. Maybe this February, on their home field. The circle will be complete, and I will become a curling fan.

54
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 11:24pm

Rich Gannon, by the Raiders?

68
by Hextall_27 :: Wed, 11/22/2017 - 5:32pm

Rich Gannon did OK in Oakland.

(should have read to the bottom of this thread)

74
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Thu, 11/23/2017 - 5:21am

Better than ok - he was league MVP in 2002 and led them to a Super Bowl appearance.

From an Oakland perspective he gave them a franchise QB for about four years. Remember that, Tim Brown, at his HoF induction said he'd caught passes from 19 different QBs during his career.

The QB position was a mess either side of Gannon as was the team's record.

52
by RickD :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 8:31pm

He's been a Top 10 QB for a few seasons now. He had the best season in franchise history two years ago. Along with Luck and Wilson he's one of top three QBs in their late 20s.

Not his fault his franchise is cursed. (Daniel Snyder really shouldn't have built their stadium on that Indian^WNative American burial ground.)

55
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 11:25pm

Stafford is 29.

58
by Alternator :: Wed, 11/22/2017 - 1:47am

I, for one, would agree with Wilson, Stafford, and Cousins as the top three late-20s QBs in the league.

59
by Vincent Verhei :: Wed, 11/22/2017 - 1:57am

I will never not be amazed that Stafford and Wilson were born in 1988. Feels like Stafford should be at least five years older.

61
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Wed, 11/22/2017 - 9:39am

Yea, it does seem like that, doesn’t it? His career started at age 21 in the prior decade, when Brett Favre and Terrell Owens were still productive players, and the Peyton Manning Colts were making a Super Bowl run. Daunte Culpepper was Stafford’s backup.

The unfortunate thing is that he was raised by wolves the first 5 years of his career, and has had to spend the last few years unlearning a lot of bad habits.

65
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Wed, 11/22/2017 - 3:21pm

Given who he plays for, I'm sure he feels like he's five years older.

56
by Hextall_27 :: Tue, 11/21/2017 - 11:27pm

I think this site is great and I love all the work that goes into the stats, but I am going to rant a bit on DYAR:

If Russell Wilson's superhuman play gets him a negative DYAR for passing and a 17th overall QB DYAR, then the whole rating formula is flawed as applied to NFL reality.

He carried the team on his back and forced OT if his kicker makes that kick at the end. That kick is much closer if one defender does not make a fantastic play to grab his foot as he yet again escaped pressure.

A QB who accounts for 95% of his teams yards is 17th in DYAR that week!

Does DYAR account for how bad a QB's O-line is?
Wentz and Keenum can make a sandwich while Wilson runs for his life.

Does DYAR account for how bad his run support is so the pressure on the QB is amped up making an average pass defense into a good one vs a one-dimensional team?

Does DYAR care about buying time in the pocket with scrambling to make a miracle 9 yard pass, or is it just a 9 yard pass?

Does anyone think Wilson's replacement is anything better than 2-8 now if he would have gotten hurt in the preseason?

That game is likely a 27-10 blowout loss with any other NFL QB playing for Seattle.

I get Matt Ryan not being lower when facing the Legion of Whom? because there are no numbers on how bad they are yet, but the DYAR rankings have a Russel Wilson sized hole in them. These formulas just don't get him as a player.

*I am not a Seahawks fan, but I watch a lot of Seahawks games and it is always the same story.

In the same way that Brady's numbers (this week) should get cut in half because of a bad opponent, Wilson's numbers should be tripled because of bad teammates. Maybe 2020 DYAR will evolve to account for that better.

57
by Will Allen :: Wed, 11/22/2017 - 12:35am

DYAR is actually a measure of offensive unit performance on plays where there is not a runner taking a handoff. It thus is accounting for the fact that Seattle can't block.

60
by Andrew Potter :: Wed, 11/22/2017 - 5:36am

Right. As we've often said, "Russell Wilson" should really read, "the Seahawks offense on plays in which Russell Wilson is the passer, runner, or intended receiver." That's a bit more of a challenge to fit in the table, however, so we tend to just go with "Russell Wilson".

69
by Hextall_27 :: Wed, 11/22/2017 - 5:36pm

A negative passing number assumes that a replacement QB would do better than Wilson did on Monday night, right?

A replacement QB behind that line would be having a wake today followed by a funeral tomorrow.

70
by Vincent Verhei :: Wed, 11/22/2017 - 8:30pm

See comment 60. It's not comparing Russell Wilson to what a replacement-level quarterback would have done behind the Seahawks' line. It's comparing what Russell Wilson and the Seahawks did to what a replacement-level quarterback with replacement-level blocking and replacement-level receivers would have been expected to do. And a replacement-level offensive line may well be an upgrade over what Seattle has right now.

71
by nat :: Wed, 11/22/2017 - 8:41pm

I don't think that's right. Replacement level for QBs was found by looking at stats for actual replacement QBs. The supporting casts were whatever was there. So it's better to say replacement-level QB with average blocking and receiving.

I sure as hell hope we have little or no data for offenses made up entirely of replacements.

Although, come to think of it...

72
by Bryan Knowles :: Wed, 11/22/2017 - 9:11pm

Expansion franchises are actually a really good data point for these sorts of comparisons; while they're not made up -entirely- of replacements, the significant bulk of their roster is made up from the lower ranks of the league, via the expansion draft and things of that nature.

In that regard, the 2002 Texans -- and the murder of David Carr -- is a good benchline for what you'd expect a replacement offense to do. The Seahawks line is not significantly improved from that, I would say.

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by Vincent Verhei :: Thu, 11/23/2017 - 4:36am

I may have misspoke (miswritten?) but the point is, yes, Wilson's numbers are certainly a reflection of his teammates as much as his own performance.

Case Keenum's DYAR is much higher than Russell Wilson's this season. I don't think anyone affiliated with this site or otherwise would tell you that Keenum has been the better player, but he's definitely in a better situation.

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by nat :: Thu, 11/23/2017 - 8:58am

You did mis-write. It's important to avoid misleading readers about how DYAR works. No problem. No one thought you were doing it intentionally.

Your main point is right. DYAR judges a QB and his supporting cast together. It's up to readers to supply the asterisks for "and his OL stinks". Of course, we risk simply restating our pre-judgments when we do so. That's why DYAR is a conversation starter, not a conversation ender.

Great work as always.