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» Week 11 DVOA Ratings

DVOA has finally climbed on board the Wentz Wagon! The Eagles move into the No. 1 spot, but they aren't the only strong, well-balanced team in the NFL this year. New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and the Los Angeles Rams make this one of the best seasons ever for multiple teams over 30% in DVOA, and Minnesota isn't far behind.

02 Jan 2017

Week 17 Quick Reads

by Aaron Schatz

Traditionally, for the last week of the year, Quick Reads is a rundown of the best and worst players of the season by DYAR, rather than analysis of Week 17. Vincent Verhei is writing that article for tomorrow. For those of you who want to see Week 17, however, here are the tables with the best and worst DYAR totals for the final week of the season.

Week 17 actually brought us the best and worst games of the year for running backs. Rex Burkhead set a new season high with 103 total DYAR against Baltimore. Obviously, that's partially a product of the Baltimore run defense being rated so well... and the Baltimore run defense has not been quite as good the last few weeks. Still, Burkhead did have 119 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Justin Forsett had minus-62 DYAR, which ties Charles Sims' Week 4 game for the worst of the year. It sure doesn't look like 22 carries for 90 yards should be the worst game of the year, but Forsett got 64 yards on a single carry. The rest of the day, he had 21 carries for 26 yards against a below-average Raiders run defense, with as many fumbles as first downs (one of each).

Tony Romo did not have enough attempts to be listed below, but he had 60 passing DYAR on his one drive (3-of-4 with a touchdown and a 29-yard DPI).

For the rest of the table, you will all have to provide the commentary yourselves, as we're all busy with 100,000 other end-of-season tasks.

Tables with full-season stats for players are up now. Tables for team stats, along with full-season DVOA ratings and commentary, will be up late this afternoon.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Matt Ryan ATL
27/36
331
4
0
1
188
186
3
NO
2.
Tom Brady NE
25/33
276
3
0
0
156
154
2
MIA
3.
Sam Bradford MIN
25/33
250
3
1
0
148
139
9
CHI
4.
Aaron Rodgers GB
27/39
315
4
0
1
140
125
15
DET
5.
Andy Dalton CIN
18/27
226
1
0
1
126
131
-5
BAL
6.
Alex Smith KC
21/28
264
2
1
1
114
114
0
SD
7.
Matthew Stafford DET
26/41
347
2
1
2
86
86
0
GB
8.
Andrew Luck IND
24/38
321
2
1
4
71
76
-6
JAC
9.
Matt Moore MIA
24/34
212
2
1
0
61
61
0
NE
10.
Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ
20/30
210
2
0
1
60
77
-17
BUF
11.
Trevor Siemian DEN
17/27
206
2
1
0
57
57
0
OAK
12.
Philip Rivers SD
22/38
269
2
2
0
46
50
-4
KC
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Carson Palmer ARI
20/38
255
3
1
1
35
35
0
LARM
14.
Carson Wentz PHI
27/43
245
2
0
2
34
24
9
DAL
15.
Colin Kaepernick SF
17/22
215
1
0
5
26
31
-5
SEA
16.
Drew Brees NO
29/49
350
2
1
2
24
24
0
ATL
17.
Dak Prescott DAL
4/8
37
0
0
0
20
15
5
PHI
18.
Brock Osweiler HOU
21/39
253
1
0
3
13
3
10
TEN
19.
Russell Wilson SEA
19/32
258
1
0
1
10
22
-12
SF
20.
Blake Bortles JAC
25/39
301
1
0
2
-3
-1
-2
IND
21.
Landry Jones PIT
24/37
277
3
1
4
-3
-3
0
CLE
22.
Eli Manning NYG
18/27
180
0
0
1
-4
-4
0
WAS
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Matthew McGloin OAK
6/11
21
0
0
0
-7
-7
0
DEN
24.
Kirk Cousins WAS
22/35
291
1
2
4
-13
-13
0
NYG
25.
Connor Cook OAK
14/21
150
1
1
2
-19
-19
0
DEN
26.
Cam Newton CAR
18/32
237
1
3
3
-31
-22
-9
TB
27.
Matt Cassel TEN
16/26
150
1
1
4
-31
-31
0
HOU
28.
Jameis Winston TB
20/35
202
1
1
3
-38
-50
12
CAR
29.
Tom Savage HOU
5/8
25
0
0
1
-48
-51
4
TEN
30.
EJ Manuel BUF
9/20
86
0
0
2
-57
-59
1
NYJ
31.
Matt Barkley CHI
10/14
125
0
2
1
-63
-63
0
MIN
32.
Cardale Jones BUF
6/11
96
0
1
1
-67
-62
-5
NYJ
33.
Robert Griffin CLE
29/40
232
2
1
4
-71
-76
5
PIT
34.
Joe Flacco BAL
33/49
267
0
1
3
-72
-72
0
CIN
35.
Mark Sanchez DAL
9/17
85
0
2
3
-128
-126
-1
PHI
36.
Jared Goff LARM
13/20
120
0
0
7
-147
-147
0
ARI


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Rex Burkhead CIN
27
119
2
2/2
25
0
103
90
13
BAL
2.
Charcandrick West KC
16
58
0
5/5
58
2
55
2
53
SD
3.
Shaun Draughn SF
21
41
2
4/6
68
0
54
25
29
SEA
4.
Jordan Howard CHI
23
135
0
0/0
0
0
44
44
0
MIN
5.
Aaron Ripkowski GB
9
61
0
2/2
15
1
41
25
16
DET


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Rex Burkhead CIN
27
119
2
2/2
25
0
103
90
13
BAL
2.
Jordan Howard CHI
23
135
0
0/0
0
0
44
44
0
MIN
3.
Isaiah Crowell CLE
19
152
0
3/4
16
0
26
30
-4
PIT
4.
Mike Gillislee BUF
15
40
1
1/1
10
0
32
27
5
NYJ
5.
Kerwynn Williams ARI
12
60
1
0/1
0
0
23
26
-3
LARM


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Justin Forsett DEN
22
90
0
0/1
0
0
-62
-51
-11
OAK


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Justin Forsett DEN
22
90
0
0/1
0
0
-62
-51
-11
OAK


Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Michael Thomas NO
10
14
156
15.6
1
74
ATL
2.
Julio Jones ATL
7
9
96
13.7
1
66
NO
3.
Kelvin Benjamin CAR
6
7
93
15.5
1
57
TB
4.
Julian Edelman NE
8
13
151
18.9
1
40
MIA
5.
Cody Core CIN
4
5
82
20.5
0
39
BAL


Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Brian Quick LARM
2
7
15
7.5
0
-36
ARI

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 02 Jan 2017

57 comments, Last at 04 Jan 2017, 12:13pm by bravehoptoad

Comments

1
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Mon, 01/02/2017 - 4:52pm

Landry Jones posts a career day mostly in garbage time and it registers about 0 DYAR.

That's pretty telling.
--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

4
by JMM :: Mon, 01/02/2017 - 5:20pm

When is garbage time during an overtime game?

5
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Mon, 01/02/2017 - 5:23pm

When the whole game is meaningless, I misspoke earlier with the mostly part.

-------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

6
by JMM :: Mon, 01/02/2017 - 5:40pm

So, a replacement quarterback, playing with replacement receivers, running backs and tight ends scores about average for DYAR in a game that doesn't impact playoff seeding against a weak opponent.

The only thing I learned from that is DYAR seems to be well calibrated. Isn't that what's expected?

8
by rj1 :: Mon, 01/02/2017 - 6:18pm

We need a like button for intellectual smackdown posts like this.

16
by Bobman :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 1:17am

But what should the button look like? I suggest either a ref signaling unnecessary roughness, or roughing the passer.

45
by justanothersteve :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 2:05pm

LeBron postering Jason Terry

47
by In_Belichick_We... :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 2:35pm

How about a button for really obvious posts that shouldn't have even been written. An icon of Dan Fouts' head would be great. Examples of posts similar to what Fouts brings to the table: "Football begins with the letter F." "There were 32 teams in the DVOA table this week." And then the occasional "Wow, I have no idea why there is a period at the end of that sentence; that is incredible."

51
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 3:37pm

You could have a Jeff Triplette icon for those posts that no-one can fathom or even begin to agree with.

53
by dryheat :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 5:43pm

Mike Carey for the times when the post can be easily demonstrated to be wrong.

10
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Mon, 01/02/2017 - 6:50pm

He was playing with all but 1 of the Steelers 1st string WRs ....
if that's his career day, I'd say he's far below replacement level.

Nowhere did I say DYAR was wrong, the comment was an indictment of Jones.

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

11
by DRohan :: Mon, 01/02/2017 - 8:08pm

Right. The original post did not rag on DVOA. It was that Jones was below zero on a career day.

12
by JMM :: Mon, 01/02/2017 - 8:24pm

Brown - inactive
Bryant -suspended
Wheaton - IR
Coates - did not play

Not sure who besides Brown you view as a starting receiver.

Also not sure who declared that was a career day for Jones.

My point was that DYAR said Jones did what was expected. What were you indicting him for? Being a replacement level guy?

To me that would be a bit harsh. It is who he is, at least according to Tomlin and the Steelers.

15
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 12:45am

Bryant and Wheaton have been out forever (and realistically, so has Coates).

BigBen has still put up respectable (though not amazeballs) stats with what he has had to work with in the interim.

Jones had all of 4 career passing TDS, and put up 3 in this game. I'd call that a career day. And yet--- his best game as a pro--- registered break even. A lot of career backups post single games that are monstrous (conventional stats and*** DVOA/DYAR). Jones can't even manage that.

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

2
by greybeard :: Mon, 01/02/2017 - 5:00pm

Interesting that a 1 yard run for TD is worh 10 DYAR for a QB(Osweiler). Contrasting with Smith who had 5 yards run for a TD and 16 yards in the other 5 and only one of them really negative (9 yards on 1st down, 3 yards on 1st and 10, 4 yards on 2nd and 9, 4 yards on 3rd and 7 that got a first down due to defensive holding, -4 yards on 2nd and 5) but 0 DYAR, I cannot say I agree how the QB runs are evaluated. It seems to me the scrambles and actual designed runs are evaluated the same way. Which undervalues players like Newton and Kap.

7
by cstoos :: Mon, 01/02/2017 - 5:43pm

I would have to say I agree. Smith's scrambles and TD run were all very beneficial to the Chiefs offense on Sunday. To have a 0 rushing DYAR seems...odd.

9
by rj1 :: Mon, 01/02/2017 - 6:21pm

At the same time though unlike runningbacks the QBs don't get credit for negative rushing yards and an attempt for it because that's a sack and is counted toward passing stats.

3
by Will Allen :: Mon, 01/02/2017 - 5:06pm

So Bradford ends up 17th by DYAR and DVOA, behind absolutely zero blocking, certainly below average running backs, and, at the very best, average receiving. That's a significamt accomplishment, for both Bradfrd and OC Shurmer, who will likely end up with about the 24th or 25th best offense by DVOA.

17
by Bobman :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 1:22am

Don't forget the NFL season record for completion percentage. Now regardless of his average yards in the air (I haven't seen many Vikes games so I don't know), that's pretty impressive, even more so in light of the items you listed above.

But he cost them a first round pick, right? Do you think it was worth it? Clearly they were in playoff or bust mode when they got him. (Hey, it was a MUCH better trade than the Colts getting Trent Richardson for a first rounder under similar circumstances a few years ago.)

18
by Will Allen :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 3:45am

Oh, it definitely was a good trade. It means they certainly have a viable option for qb next year, which, given the severity of Bridgewater's injury, is not a trivial thing. The guy is better than at least 3, maybe as many 5, Super Bowl winning qbs since 2000, so you can plan around him.

The worst aspect of Bradford is that his agent Tom Condon may be the best in the league, and thus Bradford cosumes more cap space than he would otherwise.
Or

19
by bubqr :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 8:46am

Out of curiosity - Dilfer, Brad Johnson, then who, young Brady, young Big Ben and old Peyton?

21
by Will Allen :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 10:30am

Yeah, Walking Dead Manning, Rookie Roethlisberger, then maybe Flacco or Second Year Brady. So, really, 4 or maybe 5 winning SB QBs in the past 15 were no better, or inferior to what Bradford is now. Flacco is kind of interesting, because an unusual sequence of events came together in late November that year, and all of a sudden the Ravens improved at 3 spots on the o line, suddenly pass pro became good, and 9 weeks later the Ravens were champs. I'm very sure that if you stuck Bradford behind competent blocking, on a team with a good defense, you could win 3 straight playoff games.

48
by Theo :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 3:00pm

Rookie Ben won 15 but not the SB.
It was 2nd year Ben who won the Super Bowl.

49
by Will Allen :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 3:12pm

Yeah, I was remined of that below. 2nd year Ben had good stats aided by a dominant offensive line, other terrific offensive personnel, and a terrific defense. He had 3 good to great playoff games, and then an awful Super Bowl that was good enough, because the rest of the team was great.

20
by jefeweiss :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 10:26am

I don't agree with his statement about the 5 qbs at this point. I can totally see Dilfer and Brad Johnson. As far as three more, I'm not sold on Russell Wilson, Flacco or even Eli Manning as "elite" QBS, but it seems like a stretch to say that Sam Bradford is better.

Looking back at the list of Super Bowl winning QBs, it makes me think you a team is far more likely to win the Super Bowl with a great QB. Having a decent QB will get you to the playoffs or even lose you the Super Bowl, but the list of winners is a whole other ball game. If the goal is to win the Super Bowl, go find an elite QB.

22
by Will Allen :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 10:43am

Rookie Roethlisberger was a very limited quarterback who was dependent on a great defense and o-line. The only thing Peyton Manning could do well last year was get you into the right play, and even that was of limited utlity in the 2nd half against a good defense.

"Go out and get an elite QB" may be the least useful strategy imaginable. Getting those guys is mostly a function of dumb random luck. In the meantime you have to try to win. You don't need great qb play (and you are right that Eli was not a great qb in 2007) to have decent chance at winning a championship.

24
by Andrew Potter :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 11:15am

Minor point in the context of this conversation, but Rookie Roethlisberger's 15-1 2004 Steelers lost the AFC Championship game 41-27 to the eventual champion Patriots. The "Jerome Bettis is from Detroit?!?" Super Bowl 40 win came at the end of his second year.

26
by Will Allen :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 11:18am

Yeah,I misremembered. 2nd year Ben was still a limited qb.

30
by Anon Ymous :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 11:58am

Bradford is much, much better than 2007 Eli. And I'm being stingy with the "much"es in an effort to conserve space.

38
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 1:34pm

Brad Johnson was a legitimately good QB for a number of years, and was quite excellent the year the Bucs won the SB, and lumping him with Dilfer doesn't make much sense. Johnson was a much better QB than he gets credit for.

41
by Will Allen :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 1:45pm

Yeah, I really don't mean to put Johnson on Dilfer's level. He wasn't a great qb in 2002, however, just like Flacco and Eli '07 weren't great qbs.

Dilfer is the one guy I'd say was objectively a bad qb when winning a Super Bowl. At least Walking Dead Manning knew exactly what needed to be done, even if he physically had very little hope of actually doing it anymore.

50
by barf :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 3:28pm

I always liked Johnson - he reminds me of Alex Smith with very limited mobility.

23
by Will Allen :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 10:48am

I'd forgotten that 2007 Eli really wasn't any better than Bradford now. So it may be as many as 6 guys in the last 15 weren't better than Bradford today.

The idea that winning a championship without great qb play is a longshot is a myth.

25
by dryheat :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 11:17am

I think you're overestimating how good Bradford actually is. In my opinion, he's been a below-average QB his entire time in the league.

28
by Will Allen :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 11:22am

He was 17th by DYAR and DVOA this year, with perhaps the worst blocking in the league, bad running backs and average at best receivers. It simply can't be reasonably argued that this is a below average performance.

52
by dryheat :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 5:41pm

He's been in the league what -- 6 years now? I think we know what Sam Bradford is. My opinion is that with some good coaching and offensive system stability, he could be as good as Alex Smith.

If "average" is meant to mean better than the median NFL QB this year...I don't know. He's probably in the "a little bit better than" to the "a little bit worse than" range. But we were talking about Super Bowl Winners. We know how many mediocre-to-bad QBs inhabit the NFL these days.

It also just occurred to me that Sam Bradford and Alex Smith were both #1 overall picks...Smith over Rodgers, because he was easier to sign. Ouch.

54
by Will Allen :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 5:50pm

Well, no, we really don't knpw what Bradford is with good offensive talent around him, because he's never played in that environment. What we saw this year was middle of the pack statistical productivity, while playing behind the worst line in the league, bad running backs, and at best average receiving. That simply is not a below average performance.

Bradford is in need of blocking most of all. That has been the case for nearly his entire career.

57
by bravehoptoad :: Wed, 01/04/2017 - 12:13pm

I've watched a lot of Alex Smith games. I've watched like, 3 Sam Bradford games. In those 3 games I've seem him do things Alex Smith could never do.

Smith is a prettier runner, he's got that.

29
by big10freak :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 11:41am

I don't know if one year will do it for NFL insiders, but for a guy who among his other reps was also believed to be 'brittle' Bradford took a pounding all season and stayed in the lineup. This may not have been a David Carr 2002 level beat down, but Bradford took a lot of hard shots.

31
by Will Allen :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 12:13pm

It was among the things that impressed me most.

39
by bubqr :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 1:36pm

The issue with "he can be better than Eli and Flacco" is that it's what we can say about nearly every QB. The fact is that as of today, Bradford has never played to the level of Playoffs Eli and Flacco, who were very good in their SB-winning postseasons. I'd put him above Dilfer and Brad Johnson, then maybe 2nd year Ben and maybe zombie Peyton.

42
by Will Allen :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 1:54pm

Unless you are an elite HOFer (think Peyton in 2010) playing near your peak, you can't play at 2011 Eli evel or championship Flacco level on an offense devoid of talent. 2011 Eli comes closest, because it was not a good o-line, but it wasn't objectively awful, and the receivers were decent. January and February 2012 Eli is a Hall of Famer; the NFCCG against the Niners is one of the best games I've ever seen a qb play. January and February 2008 Eli isn't in the same conversation.

43
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 1:55pm

"2nd year Ben" took over the offense and single handedly got the team to the SB during the playoffs. Yes, his SB performance itself was mediocre (or worse), but the Denver game for example---- Bradford is not close.

-------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

55
by tuluse :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 6:56pm

07 Eli is strange because it seems like a switch flipped in the playoffs and stayed flipped for the next 5 years.

56
by Will Allen :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 7:02pm

Most difficult to evaluate qb of the past 25 years, it seems to me.

13
by techvet :: Mon, 01/02/2017 - 8:54pm

The Ripper makes an appearance at #5!

Why is Rodgers listed at 315 yards passing and yet various wire stories list him at 300 yards?

14
by dbostedo :: Mon, 01/02/2017 - 10:50pm

That is the least well-known list of the best receivers and running backs that I think has ever been on here.

27
by dryheat :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 11:19am

If someone this morning asked me what a "Cody Core" was, my honest-to-God answer would have been "I don't know. Porn star? Rapper?"

32
by big10freak :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 12:13pm

Bortles saw his sack total drop by a third going from 51 to 34. Is that a better line, more awareness, other or combination? Any Jags fans around to provide perspective?

33
by Andrew Potter :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 12:25pm

The line is a lot better. It could hardly have been worse over the previous couple of years.

Bortles, on the other hand...

40
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 1:36pm

Pretty hard to get sacked when you're continually quickly throwing the ball to defenders for easy pick-sixes going the other way.

34
by BJR :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 12:45pm

Confused as to why Romo only played one series on Sunday. Surely this was the perfect opportunity to get him some quality reps should he be needed down the road.

Is he that much of an injury risk that he can't be played at all unless absolutely necessary? Did the Cowboys need to evaluate Mark Sanchez? (The answer remains: he sucks). Were they scared that Romo would play lights out and create a controversy?

35
by ChrisS :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 1:05pm

I was confused about why only 1 (really good) series as well. Perhaps to improve his trade-ability next season without significantly increasing risk? Maybe your suggestion is correct as well. And yes Sanchize sure proved again that he still sucks.

36
by ChrisS :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 1:07pm

Were the Buffalo QB decisions, starting Manual and replacing him with Jones, meant to help the fans better appreciate Tyrod?

37
by RickD :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 1:25pm

Tyrod was benched because if he got injured, the Bills would be on the hook for $30 million.

I wouldn't be surprised if Rex's refusal to bench Tyrod played a role in his early release.

44
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 2:01pm

And I believe that it was later revealed that Tyrod is due to have surgery for a hernia.

As for Rex, when he found out that he wouldn't be back next season, he suggested getting the OC to coach the last game of the season ...

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000768672/article/bills-owner-expla...

46
by ChrisS :: Tue, 01/03/2017 - 2:11pm

Thanks to both of you for the info.