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25 Sep 2017

Week 3 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

If you live on the West Coast of the United States and woke up at 6:30 a.m. on a Sunday to watch the Jacksonville Jaguars play the Baltimore Ravens, then you have a compulsive gambling problem and should seek professional help immediately. For those of you on the East Coast or in the United Kingdom, though, the game offered a nice treat of early football -- at least, it would have, if the game had been the slightest bit competitive. The Jaguars jumped out to a 20-0 lead midway through the second quarter and never looked back, eventually going up by 44 points before the Ravens added a garbage-time touchdown to make the final score 44-7. Those 44 points were very unusual for Jacksonville, but we'll get to Blake Bortles and the Jaguars offense later. For now we're going to concentrate on the Ravens' seven points -- or rather, the zero points they scored when Joe Flacco was still in the game.

Make no mistake, the Jaguars defense put Flacco through some serious anarchy in the U.K. We documented the destruction in quasi-real time in Audibles at the Line, but when it was all said and done, we also said it was not likely to be found in the list of the worst games of all time. I even noted it might not even be the worst game of the week. And, as it turns out, it wasn't.

That might be hard to comprehend for those of you who watched the game. If you missed it, let's go ahead and break down Flacco's performance, one drive at a time:

  • Flacco throws an incomplete pass on second down and takes a sack on third down. Ravens go three-and-out.
  • Flacco throws incomplete on third-and-2. Ravens go three-and-out.
  • Flacco throws incomplete on first down, takes a sack on third down. Ravens go three-and-out.
  • Flacco throws incomplete on second and third down. Ravens go three-and-out.
  • Flacco is intercepted by A.J. Bouye on first-and-10.
  • A first down! Flacco hits Benjamin Watson for 4 yards on second-and-3, his first completion of the day. Jacksonville was already up by 20 points. Then Flacco hits Javorius Allen for no gain on first down and throws incomplete on third down, and the Ravens punt.
  • Flacco throws on three straight plays. The results: 3-yard gain, incomplete, 1-yard gain. Ravens go three-and-out.
  • Terrance West runs for 10 yards and a first down, but two plays later Flacco is intercepted by Jalen Ramsey. Drive only lasts three plays, but not technically a three-and-out.
  • Alex Collins runs for 16 yards a first down, and the Ravens get another first down on a Jacksonville penalty, but then Baltimore commits two penalties of their own to set up a first-and-30. Flacco throws a pair of short completions and the Ravens punt on fourth-and-11. Flacco's official numbers on the drive: 3-of-3 for 17 yards. This was Flacco's best and last drive of the day before Ryan Mallett came in to finish things up. It came with the Ravens down 37-0 late in the third quarter.

This led to a final statline of 8-of-18 for 28 yards with no touchdowns, two interceptions, and two sacks. You're probably thinking we misplaced a decimal or something in there, but no, that is complete. Twenty dropbacks. Twenty-eight yards. Between completions and defensive pass interference penalties there were 53 passing plays this week that gained that many yards in a single snap. T.Y. Hilton had three of them by himself.

Clearly, this is a terrible game on any level. Flacco only threw for the one first down. He did not convert a third down, going 2-of-5 for 8 yards, plus two sacks, a net -4 yards on seven dropbacks. He did not throw a pass in the red zone; in fact, he did not throw a pass on Jacksonville's side of the 50-yard line. Though he was horrendous throwing to either side, he was at his worst up the middle: 2-of-6 for 3 yards with an interception. Of all the splits and data though, this may be the most amazing: thirty of Flacco's 28 passing yards came after the catch. Read that last sentence again. Now read it again. That is not a mistake -- Flacco's average completion was caught a quarter of a yard behind the line of scrimmage. His deepest completion was caught only 3 yards downfield; he went 0-for-7 with two picks on anything deeper than that.

Clearly, we don't need to show any more evidence that this was a terrible game. It's time to start explaining why it was not one of the worst games of all time. In fact, by DYAR, not only was it not among the worst of all time, it was not even the worst of the week, and it would not have been the worst of Week 1 or Week 2 in this season either. First of all, compared to some other games at the bottom of the quarterback barrel, Flacco had a modicum of ball security, "only" throwing two interceptions, with no fumbles. More importantly Flacco only had 20 dropbacks, which limited his opportunities to rack up terrible plays. His DVOA this week was -155.8%, worse than Andy Dalton's -145.3% in Week 1, DeShone Kizer's -110.7% in Week 2, or Cam Newton's -116.6% in Week 3. In this light the Ravens might really have saved Flacco from the history books. Given another quarter to embarrass himself, he might well have sunk to depths we have never seen on an NFL field before.

What Flacco did do was become the latest member of an obscure club, a club so obscure it didn't even exist until I gathered the data Sunday night. With 28 yards and 18 official passes, Flacco officially averaged 1.6 yards per pass. According to Pro Football Reference, that makes Flacco just the 16th quarterback to average fewer than 2 yards per pass while throwing at least two interceptions and giving up at least two sacks since sacks became an official statistic in 1982. The good news for Flacco is that the last quarterback to put up a "2/2/2" game was a former Super Bowl champion, like Flacco, who went on to win his second ring that very same season: Peyton Manning, who threw four interceptions in a half against Kansas City in 2015 before being benched for Brock Osweiler. Manning's father Archie and brother Eli are also in the 2/2/2 club, as are Jim Harbaugh, Flacco's coach's brother, and Terry Bradshaw, the only member of the club whose bust is presently in Canton. Anthony Wright and Quincy Carter joined the club in back-to-back years for Dallas. Wright's game was on Christmas Day -- talk about a lump of coal in your stocking. If you're the type of fan who longs for the good old days of the NFL, I'd like to point out there were three 2/2/2 performances in the 1985 season -- one of them by Randall Cunningham in his rookie season, before Buddy Ryan was his coach. Todd Collins is the only player with two 2/2/2s, and also the only player to put one up in a win. (The Bears ran for 218 yards that day, and the defense collected three interceptions and five sacks of their own.)


2/2/2 Club: Two INTS, Two Sacks, Less Than 2 Yds/Pass, 1982-2017
Year Name Tm Cmp Att Yds TD Int Sk Yds Cmp% Rtg Y/A NY/A Age* Result Week R/H Opp
2017 Joe Flacco BAL 8 18 28 0 2 2 12 44.4% 12.0 1.56 0.80 32 L 7-44 3 R JAC
2015 Peyton Manning DEN 5 20 35 0 4 2 9 25.0% 0.0 1.75 1.18 39 L 13-29 10 H KC
2010 Todd Collins CHI 6 16 32 0 4 2 15 37.5% 6.2 2.00 0.94 38 W 23-6 5 R CAR
2008 Bruce Gradkowski CLE 5 16 18 0 2 3 6 31.3% 1.0 1.13 0.63 25 L 0-31 17 R PIT
2004 Eli Manning NYG 4 18 27 0 2 2 9 22.2% 0.0 1.50 0.90 23 L 14-37 14 R BAL
2001 Quincy Carter DAL 9 19 34 0 2 2 6 47.4% 14.5 1.79 1.33 23 L 6-10 1 H TB
2000 Anthony Wright DAL 5 20 35 0 2 4 26 25.0% 0.0 1.75 0.38 24 L 0-31 17 R TEN
1998 Jim Harbaugh BAL 0 6 0 0 2 2 6 0.0% 0.0 0.00 -0.75 34 L 6-16 7 R PIT
1998 Ryan Leaf SD 1 15 4 0 2 2 23 6.7% 0.0 0.27 -1.12 22 L 7-23 3 R KC
1997 Todd Collins BUF 7 18 35 0 2 3 20 38.9% 7.4 1.94 0.71 25 L 20-23 9 H DEN
1991 Pat Ryan PHI 4 14 24 0 3 2 13 28.6% 0.0 1.71 0.69 36 L 0-23 5 R WAS
1985 David Archer ATL 2 15 10 0 2 3 23 13.3% 0.0 0.67 -0.72 23 L 0-36 12 R CHI
1985 Randall Cunningham PHI 2 7 6 0 2 2 15 28.6% 0.0 0.86 -1.00 22 L 21-23 5 R NO
1985 Dave Wilson NO 2 22 30 0 2 3 14 9.1% 1.7 1.36 0.64 26 L 27-47 1 H KC
1982 Terry Bradshaw PIT 2 13 3 0 2 4 26 15.4% 0.0 0.23 -1.35 34 L 0-13 14 R BUF
1982 Archie Manning NO 1 7 3 0 2 2 18 14.3% 0.0 0.43 -1.67 33 L 7-21 1 H STLC
* Age as of date of game.

By NFL passer rating, Flacco had one of the best days of this group, thanks to all those empty-calorie completions. Not surprisingly, ten of the 16 had "perfect" passer ratings of 0.0. Twelve played for teams that scored 14 points or less, ten for teams that scored seven or less, and five were shut out.

This is not a group you want to be a part of, and for the sake of Flacco and the Baltimore fans, we hope he never enters the clubhouse again. But it shows that Flacco's game in England, as bad as it was, was hardly unprecedented, and certainly not the worst we've ever seen.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Case Keenum MIN
25/33
369
3
0
0
232
222
9
TB
Defenses around the League of National Football, heed this warning! Fear this well-traveled vagabond of the gridiron, fear him! For he is Case of Clan Keenum, and he shall bring doom from the heavens down upon thee! Keenum threw 10 deep passes (balls that traveled more than 16 yards past the line of scrimmage) against Tampa Bay, completing seven of them for 221 yards and two touchdowns. Mind you, he was effective on the short stuff (passes that traveled less than 6 yards downfield) too, going 15-of-17 for 107 yards. In between, he was "only" 3-of-6 for 41 yards.
2.
Jared Goff LARM
22/28
292
3
0
0
219
219
0
SF
Yes, the top two quarterbacks this week were both on a Rams team last year that finished last in offensive DVOA and in points scored. Perhaps the players were never the problem in Los Angeles. Goff's last pass of the game was incomplete, but otherwise he was close to perfect in the second half. In the third and fourth quarters, he went 11-of-12 for 155 yards and two touchdowns with a 13th throw resulting in a DPI for 8 more yards. Goff's field position splits were also remarkable. Within his own 25, he went just 2-of-6 for 7 yards. From that position forward, he went 20-of-22 for 285 yards, plus that DPI.
3.
Kirk Cousins WAS
25/30
365
3
0
1
186
193
-6
OAK
Cousins got a lot of help from his receivers. His average completion was caught 4.9 yards past the line of scrimmage, fifth-lowest among starters this week. However, his average completion gained 9.7 yards after the catch, better than any other passer by 2 full yards.
4.
Blake Bortles JAC
20/31
244
4
0
0
174
174
0
BAL
You know what's really amazing about this? It could easily have been worse for Baltimore. Bortles was far from perfect in the red zone, going just 4-of-9 for 32 yards and three scores. There's a reason Jason Myers kicked a pair of field goals from inside the 20. And on third downs, Bortles was just 3-of-7 for 26 yards and only two conversions. The Jaguars left plenty of points on the field and still won by 37.
5.
Russell Wilson SEA
30/49
373
4
0
1
135
125
10
TEN
It was a streaky game for the sixth-year signal-caller. On Seattle's first six drives (all punts, five of them three-and-outs), he went 4-of-11 for 24 yards with one sack and a fumbled snap. Over their next five drives, he went 14-of-21 for 229 yards and three touchdowns. He followed that up by picking up first downs on four straight throws for 53 total yards, but then he switched back off. From that point forward, he went 7-of-12 for 67 yards with one touchdown, another fumbled snap, and a loss of 17 yards (!) on an intentional grounding penalty.
6.
Marcus Mariota TEN
20/31
225
2
0
0
122
120
2
SEA
Most of Mariota's action came in the first half, most of his production in the second. In the first and second quarters, he went 16-of-25 for 129 yards, with a 26th pass resulting in a 16-yard DPI, but the Titans scored only nine points. Then he threw only two passes in the third quarter: a 55-yard touchdown to Rishard Matthews, and a 24-yard touchdown to Jonnu Smith. (DeMarco Murray also had a 75-yard touchdown run in the third quarter.) And then Mariota barely threw the ball in the fourth quarter, going 2-of-4 for 17 yards.
7.
Drew Brees NO
22/29
220
3
0
1
116
116
0
CAR
Brees and his wide receivers had a big day, but he wasn't nearly as effective throwing to his backs and tight ends: 9-of-14 for just 63 yards. Only three of those completions were successful, and only two went for first downs.
8.
Eli Manning NYG
35/47
366
3
2
0
116
116
0
PHI
Manning has only thrown four touchdowns this season, and three of them came in a 5:21 stretch of this game. That was part of a fourth-quarter string where Manning completed 10 passes in a row, for a total of 174 yards.
9.
Jacoby Brissett IND
17/24
259
1
0
3
103
92
11
CLE
If this game is any indication, Brissett needs to never throw another short pass for the rest of 2017. He picked up just one first down throwing to receivers within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage (9-of-14 for 48 yards), but had eight on throws deeper than that (8-of-10 for 211 yards, plus a 34-yard DPI on an 11th throw).
10.
Dak Prescott DAL
13/18
183
2
0
1
98
80
18
ARI
11.
Tom Brady NE
25/35
378
5
0
5
83
80
3
HOU
Yes, this is surprisingly low for a five-touchdown game, but Brady also fumbled three times on his five sacks. One of those was recovered and returned for a Houston touchdown. The Patriots recovered both of the others, one of which came two snaps before Brady hit Brandin Cooks for 25 yards and the winning score. On third downs, Brady went 9-of-10 for 133 yards, though three of those completions failed to pick up first downs.
12.
Andy Dalton CIN
22/27
212
2
0
3
78
85
-8
GB
You could hardly ask for more from Dalton when it came to getting his team out of bad field position. Within the Bengals' own 40-yard line, he went 13-of-13 for 140 yards, with a 14th throw resulting in a 6-yard DPI.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Josh McCown NYJ
18/23
249
1
0
2
73
94
-21
MIA
GABBERT WATCH UPDATE: Hey now, a good game! That's two straight weeks McCown has been above replacement level. If he keeps this up I'm going to have to find a new gimmick for his comments every week. As it is, he is now at -1,357 career passing DYAR, which puts him back in third place behind Ryan Leaf (-1,388) and Blaine Gabbert (-1,928). McCown's biggest play against Miami was a 69-yard touchdown to Robby Anderson that included 44 air yards and 25 YAC, but for most of the day McCown just took what the Miami defense gave him -- on throws to receivers within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, he went 13-of-15 for 104 yards.
14.
Carson Wentz PHI
21/31
181
1
0
3
73
66
6
NYG
Wentz did not have a good day on third or fourth downs: 7-of-11 for 59 yards with only three conversions and a sack. That yardage total is inflated by a 12-yard gain on third-and-15 and a 13-yard gain on third-and-17.
15.
Tyrod Taylor BUF
20/26
213
2
0
4
63
68
-6
DEN
The key to beating Denver's defense might be the ability to exploit the few openings the Broncos give you for big plays. Taylor only threw three deep passes against Denver, but completed all of them, for gains of 25, 28, and 31 yards.
16.
Deshaun Watson HOU
22/33
301
2
2
2
63
74
-11
NE
Watson was sacked twice against New England, but the real question is how many sacks he avoided via breaking tackles in the backfield. We're awaiting word on that from Sports Info Solutions, but we do know that in the past two years, the most sacks avoided in a single game is three (twice by Tyrod Taylor). Given plays like this, it seems likely Watson surpassed that total. Hell, you could argue he surpassed it on that one play. That play also shows how effective Watson was throwing to his right: 10-of-11 for 135 yards. Watson's second interception, by the way, was a Hail Mary, and counts as a regular incompletion for DVOA/DYAR purposes.
17.
Brian Hoyer SF
23/37
332
2
1
4
58
46
12
LARM
Hoyer gained 142 yards on passes to the deep left area of the field, most of any player in a single game so far this year. He went 5-of-6 on those throws. Pierre Garcon was the target on five of them, but Kyle Juszczyk added a 34-yard gain on first-and-10 as well.
18.
Jameis Winston TB
28/40
328
2
3
2
42
40
2
MIN
Winston did not convert a third down until the Buccaneers were down 28-3 in the third quarter. On the day, he went 2-of-5 for 17 yards and a sack on third downs, plus a 15-yard gain on a DPI.
19.
Matthew Stafford DET
25/45
264
1
0
2
41
34
7
ATL
The last play got all the attention, but Stafford struggled in the red zone all day against Atlanta, going 3-of-8 for 17 yards and only one touchdown, plus an 18-yard DPI on third-and-10. He threw four passes from the 1-yard line (three at the end, plus one in the third quarter), with three incompletions and one complete for zero yards.
20.
Carson Palmer ARI
29/48
325
2
0
6
26
25
1
DAL
21.
Ryan Mallett BAL
6/9
36
1
0
0
24
24
0
JAC
All of Mallett's throws came with Baltimore down by 44 points in the fourth quarter. None of his completions gained more than 8 yards. Yes, the Ravens averaged only 4.6 yards per catch in this game. We don't know if that's a record, but we know it's very bad.
22.
Aaron Rodgers GB
28/42
313
3
1
6
8
5
3
CIN
Rodgers threw seven deep balls (16 yards or further past the line of scrimmage) against Cincinnati, to seven different receivers. Four were caught for 181 total yards, and a fifth resulted in a 33-yard DPI.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
22/39
235
1
0
3
7
3
4
CHI
On throws to people not named Antonio Brown, Roethlisberger went 12-of-25 for 125 yards and only four first downs, plus a 10-yard DPI on a 26th throw.
24.
Alex Smith KC
16/21
155
2
0
5
7
4
3
LACH
Smith had an excellent first quarter, then spent the rest of the game slowly whittling away at that value until it was almost all gone. In the first 15 minutes, he went 4-of-4 for 41 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Then he was sacked on each of his first three dropbacks in the second quarter, setting the tone for the rest of the day. He had three first downs in the first quarter, but only four after that. On third downs he went 6-of-6 for 49 yards, but only one conversion. He was also sacked three times.
25.
Matt Ryan ATL
24/35
294
2
3
2
1
1
0
DET
Ryan's biggest plays were a 27-yard completion to Tevin Coleman in the second quarter and a 40-yard touchdown to Taylor Gabriel in the fourth. Each of those passes was caught 2 yards behind the line of scrimmage, with the receiver getting all the yards and then some after the catch. On deep passes, Ryan went just 1-of-7 for 18 yards, with a 22-yard DPI on an eighth throw.
26.
DeShone Kizer CLE
22/47
242
2
3
1
-49
-67
17
IND
Kizer led the NFL with 13 deep passes this week, and now has 33 on the year, trailing only the 34 of Tom Brady. Those 13 deep passes resulted in three completions for 84 yards; one DPI for 16 yards; and nine incomplete passes. Two of those incompletions were intercepted, though one of those was a Hail Mary at the end of the game.
27.
Jay Cutler MIA
26/44
220
1
1
3
-56
-61
5
NYJ
Cutler threw for 13 first downs in this game, but 11 of them came after the Dolphins fell behind by 20 points late in the third quarter. That includes his one touchdown, which came on his last throw of the game. Before that 20-point deficit, Cutler went 8-of-17 for just 41 yards, with a sack.
28.
Trevor Siemian DEN
24/40
259
0
2
3
-74
-74
0
BUF
On six plays in the red zone, Siemian went 1-of-4 with two sacks; that one completion was a 5-yard gain on third-and-12. He also threw an interception from the Buffalo 24-yard line.
29.
Philip Rivers LACH
20/40
237
0
3
2
-80
-80
0
KC
Rivers threw two interceptions before he completed his first pass, and spent the rest of the day in catchup mode. He only threw five passes up the middle, completing three of them for 19 yards.
30.
Mike Glennon CHI
15/22
101
1
1
2
-90
-80
-9
PIT
Glennon only threw for four first downs all day. That's partly because nearly half of his "throws" were really long handoffs. Ten of his 22 passes were aimed at receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage. He completed eight of them for 44 yards.
31.
Derek Carr OAK
19/31
118
1
2
4
-122
-127
4
WAS
Carr's longest play was a 21-yard touchdown to Jared Cook in the third quarter. It was his only completion of the game that gained even 10 yards, and one of just five first downs he had on the day -- and two of those came with Oakland down by 17 points in the final minute of the game. He failed to convert any of his third- or fourth-down dropbacks, going 4-of-10 for 18 yards with an interception and two sacks.
32.
Joe Flacco BAL
8/18
28
0
2
2
-180
-180
0
JAC
You may have to open this video on YouTube to watch it. It's worth the trouble. Make sure your volume is turned up.

33.
Cam Newton CAR
17/26
167
0
3
4
-193
-208
15
NO
Near the end of the third quarter, Newton completed four straight passes for 88 yards, then scored on a 3-yard touchdown run. At that point the Panthers were only down 24-13 with more than 15 minutes to go, and victory was unlikely, but certainly possible. Then, in the fourth quarter, Newton went 3-of-6 for 22 yards with two interceptions and a fumble-sack before leaving the game with an injury. (His backup, Derek Anderson, went just 2-of-7 for 17 yards.) That fourth quarter by itself would have been bad enough to put Newton second-worst ahead of only Flacco this week.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Chris Thompson WAS
8
38
0
6/7
150
1
85
8
77
OAK
All six of Thompson's receptions had a big impact on the game. In order: 22-yard touchdown on third-and-6; 23-yard gain; 11-yard gain on third-and-8; 16-yard gain on second-and-20; 4-yard gain on third-and-4; and 74-yard gain on third-and-19. He also had runs of 13 yards on first-and-10 and 7 yards on second-and-2.
2.
Kareem Hunt KC
17
172
1
1/1
11
0
78
71
7
LACH
Through three weeks Hunt has nearly twice as much rushing DYAR as any other player and also leads all running backs in receiving DYAR, and has opened a big lead at this early point in the MVP race. He was hit for no gain or a loss just twice against Los Angeles, while rushing for seven total first downs, including a pair of third-and-short conversions, plus runs of 10, 11, 11, 20, 20, and 69 yards.
3.
Dalvin Cook MIN
27
97
1
5/5
72
0
51
12
39
TB
Cook had five first downs on the ground against Tampa bay, the longest a 26-yarder, though he was hit for no gain or a loss five times, most of them coming when the Vikings were killing clock in the second half. Three of his five receptions picked up first downs, the biggest a 36-yard gain on third-and-2.
4.
Duke Johnson CLE
2
23
1
6/7
81
0
50
18
32
IND
Four of Johnson's receptions gained first downs, including gains of 16, 23, and 25. He only carried the ball twice, but one of those resulted in a 19-yard touchdown.
5.
Devonta Freeman ATL
21
106
1
3/3
32
0
49
33
16
DET
Seven first downs on the ground, including four runs for 10 or more yards, while being hit for no gain or a loss just twice. All of his reeptions had positive DYAR, especially his one first down, an 18-yard gain on third-and-16.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Kareem Hunt KC
17
172
1
1/1
11
0
78
71
7
LACH
2.
Jordan Howard CHI
23
139
2
5/5
26
0
41
46
-5
PIT
The downside is that Howard was hit for no gain or a loss five times, and fumbled on one of those carries. The good news is that he had 10 first downs on the ground, including seven runs of 10 yards or more. His three runs in overtime -- all on first-and-10, resulting in gains of 1 and 18 yards and then a 19-yard game-winning touchdown -- were nearly enough to get him into this top-five table by themselves.
3.
Alex Collins BAL
9
82
0
0/0
0
0
39
39
0
JAC
One run for a loss, but four for 10 yards or more, including gains of 18 and 19 yards.
4.
Devonta Freeman ATL
21
106
1
3/3
32
0
49
33
16
DET
5.
Jamaal Charles DEN
9
56
1
1/1
1
0
26
32
-5
BUF
Well look who's still dangerous. Charles was hit for no gain just once, while running for 12 yards or more three times (including a touchdown), plus a third-and-1 conversion.


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Ty Montgomery GB
12
35
0
8/12
15
0
-57
-7
-50
CIN
A long run of only 8 yards, with two first downs and four runs for no gain or a loss. None of his receptions went for first downs or gained more than 5 yards, and only two counted as successful plays. One was a 7-yard loss on third-and-10.


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Samaje Perine WAS
19
47
0
1/1
6
0
-35
-38
4
OAK
No 10-yard runs, only one first down (a 3-yard gain on third-and-1), just three successful carries, three hits for no gain or a loss, and a fumble.


Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Sammy Watkins LARM
6
7
106
17.7
2
83
SF
All of Watkins' receptions went for first downs. He had four total third-down conversions, including both touchdowns and an 8-yard DPI. All that and a 47-yarder to boot.
2.
Stefon Diggs MIN
8
11
173
21.6
2
72
TB
Diggs now leads all wide receivers in DYAR this year, and teammate Adam Thielen is in the top ten as well. That's a big reason why, if you could mold the Vikings' two quarterbacks into one play, you'd find CaseSam KeenumFord neck-and-neck with Drew Brees for the season lead in passing DYAR. Against the Bucs, Diggs had touchdowns of 17 and 59 yards, and converted three of his four third-down targets.
3.
T.Y. Hilton IND
7
9
153
21.9
1
67
CLE
A 61-yard touchdown; three other catches that gained at least 20 yards; plus a 34-yard gain on a DPI.
4.
Brandin Cooks NE
5
7
131
26.2
2
65
HOU
Touchdowns of 42 and 25 yards, a 44-yard gain on third-and-13, and an 18-yard gain to boot.
5.
Michael Thomas NO
7
8
87
12.4
1
56
CAR
Thomas' longest catch gained only 26 yards, but six of them went for first downs, and the seventh was a 6-yard gain on first-and-10.


Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Eric Ebron DET
2
7
9
4.5
0
-42
ATL
No first downs. No successful plays. His two catches were a 1-yard gain on first-and-10 and an 8-yard gain on third-and-14.

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 25 Sep 2017

81 comments, Last at 28 Sep 2017, 4:31pm by burbman

Comments

1
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 5:56am

Case Keenum, Jared Goff, and Blake Bortles in the top 4. Jacoby Brissett in the top 10.

WTF is happening?

13
by RickD :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 10:10am

Clearly we're not actually awake. Gonna try using the "falling" trick from Inception.

2
by RoelRodgers :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 6:24am

Enjoyable read, thanks. And btw, what about us Europeans that have to stay up until the early hours every week to see the games, should we seek professional help as well ;-)

78
by LionInAZ :: Wed, 09/27/2017 - 10:48pm

Indeed you should, unless you're single and on the dole.

3
by nat :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 7:20am

Excellent, interesting note on Brady. How much negative DYAR were those five sacks and three fumbles worth?

Bad line play and holding the ball for long developing plays is a risky combo.

29
by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 12:08pm

There were also numerous occassions he got the ball out a split second before getting hit from behind (think the throw to Amendola before the TD was one). The Patriots have been mighty effective throwing deep more than usual, but it is putting an onus on the OL that hasn't been there previously.

In addition to Nat's query, what would Brady's DYAR be if the first 'fumble' was instead an interception. Certainly looked to me his arm was coming forward.

30
by nat :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 12:22pm

Good question. DYAR is a bit sensitive to fumble/interception distinctions, because they don't look at who actually recovers a fumble, while an interception is always a turnover.

It would be nice to get the play in the right category.

OTOH, you don't really want FO departing from the official play-by-play too often. The "right category" should be the official one unless there is some hugely compelling reason (predictive power being the prime consideration for DVOA).

Getting an answer to your question would at least clear up how big the effect is.

35
by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 12:39pm

I'm fine with them leaving it as a fumble.

I would imagine the penalty for an interception is worse - however, a fumble that results in a turnover also will likely lead to better field position for the other team than a pick.

Either way, wondering if the play-by-play guys are employed/provided by the home team? I am sure if you look closely that was a pick on Brady, not a fumble.

41
by Travis :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 12:58pm

The play-by-play guys are chosen by the home team (subject to NFL approval).

However, the NFL, via the Elias Sports Bureau (the NFL's official statistician), does review the statistics later in the week and issues corrections for improperly-scored plays. (See here for a time when what originally scored as an interception was changed to a sack/fumble.)

44
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 1:06pm

As the referee said "Empty hand coming forward".

I'd agree with that. The ball came out vertically and that's always been called a fumble when I've seen it in the past.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDUg6HjW-lw

74
by PatsFan :: Wed, 09/27/2017 - 7:38pm

If the SB51 call on Ryan's sack was a fumble, that was a fumble.

46
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 2:33pm

Why are the Patriots throwing long down the field all of a sudden so much? They had amendola and Gronk back.

47
by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 2:34pm

A couple times the plays were just wide open (seems like HOU forgot Chris Hogan in their pre-game prep), but we've seen this now each game.

Maybe matchup related? Intrigued to see against Carolina which normally doesn't give up many chunk plays (Saints game excluded).

54
by sbond101 :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 3:57pm

This is appears to be an intentional re-shaping of the Pat's offensive approach. They went and got Cooks (and last year Hogan) because they appear want to play "big" with two tight ends (or a tight end plus Devlin at FB) without allowing safeties in "the box" (forcing down the field double coverage like they used to with Moss). If you watch how they played against NO in the first half, it's clear that's how they want to play offense (NO is a great example, because they have no effective defense to force the Pat's into a different game plan).

As someone who follows the Pat's really closely, I think the more interesting question is why they chose to do this. It might creating an environment for life-after-Brady as it's an offense less dependent on his unique decision-making skills. It definitely could be connected to a desire to run the ball more effectively (perhaps because they think RB's are undervalued?). Maybe they don't see another Edelman/Amendola/Welker on the horizon, and see the need to be pro-active as Edelman starts to break down? With the Pat's you'll never get a direct answer to why, but it was hilarious to watch Romo on the Saints-Pats broadcast gradually realize that the Pats had pulled out the 2001-2004 playbook on offense, put up 30 points in the first half, and then basically took the rest of the night off.

66
by eagle97a :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 8:58pm

Agree with all points. I think there is also an element of BB staying ahead of the curve with most competent defenses retooling and re-configuring to defend the "dink and dunk strategy" being employed increasingly by a lot of teams. BB might be seeing a schematic and match up advantage by going more vertical and/or he is messing with future opponents scouting by veering somewhat away from their bread and butter small ball and ball control offense. If that is the case it is a fascinating case study on season long grand strategy.

70
by ChrisLong :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 11:32pm

I'm a biologist, and in biology we always caution that a particular feature of an organism may not be the result of some selective force acting on that organism. That instead maybe it was the result of some other process that hadn't been considered, or some other constraint that wasn't necessarily selecting for the trait itself but something related to it. I think it applies in this case as well: maybe the Patriots weren't considering all of these long-term impacts to plans on top of plans on top of plans, but instead just saw a relatively good WR available for a good price. We hear all the time that the NFL is a business and that's usually taken to be a negative thing; maybe this time the selective pressure for young, inexpensive players correlated with the acquisition of a couple deep threats and creating a two-TE offense. Maybe the players came first and the plans came second. Especially in the case of Hogan, I doubt they were making long-term plans around him when they traded for him. And even Cooks hadn't really proven himself to the extent that you would plan years of strategy around the acquisition of this one guy. But maybe they were! That would be cool too. Just saying, BB is great and all, but maybe let's pump the brakes a bit on anointing him as a seer.

73
by CaffeineMan :: Wed, 09/27/2017 - 4:15pm

The answer (for Cooks anyway) lies somewhere in between "just saw a relatively good WR available for a good price" and "plans on top of plans on top of plans". I think he wanted a good alternative to the short middle passing game that got shut down twice in the playoffs (not with catastrophic results obviously). He is always conscious of value, so Cooks fit the criteria all around. He didn't just see a for-sale sign hanging on Cooks.

My opinion is that Belichick likes to remain cap-flexible (Brady makes this easier) and with his awareness of value he also responds generally more quickly to trends than other organizations do, but I also think the whole thing about him looking multiple years into the future for trends is overblown. He's not a "so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of YOU!" guy. He's too concrete for that kind of speculation. He'll have a plan and contingencies, but will remain flexible and when opportunity and value (Cooks) line up with the plan (have an alternative to the short middle passing offense) he'll act without hesitation. Brady's capabilities make it easier for him to do this because short of a read-option offense, he can run almost anything. The net effect can make it seem as if he's looking farther into the future than he really is. This is related to ChrisLong's point, I think. Don't get me wrong, though. I still think Belichick's one of the greatest coaches ever.

76
by eagle97a :: Wed, 09/27/2017 - 8:26pm

I don't necessarily see BB as a seer or an omniscient football mind. I think his economics background and the help of Ernie Adams he likes to play and maximize the numbers as much as he can cap-wise, value-wise, win expectation wise etc. My observation was along the lines of he will adopt a strategy beginning of the season while remaining flexible and not afraid of completely changing it while looking at all the numbers constantly.

55
by CaffeineMan :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 3:59pm

I think these are the factors, in no particular order:

- The book on them is to shut down the short middle (see: Texans playoff game, Atlanta Super Bowl, first 3 quarters) and they've played 2 teams with defenses that can make that work (Texans, Chiefs)

- Without Edelman it's much harder to force the short middle game and still succeed. Nobody else has his combo of 3-cone quickness and mind meld with Brady.

- Their run game did not work against the Chiefs (this year) or the Texans (playoffs) so that suggests that was not an option. Additionally Burkhead was out.

- They have better outside/deep receivers this year.

I think they were sort of forced into it. Obviously with Cannon (RT) out, that was something of a high risk strategy, but what were their other choices?

71
by andrew :: Wed, 09/27/2017 - 7:35am

The 2/2/2 chart has what appears to be two unrelated asterisks....

The first is on the Age Column, and the * footnote explains is the Age as of the date of the game.

The second is on Terry Bradshaw. I believe what was meant was to indicate that Terry is in the Hall of Fame, as he is the only on the chart who is and he is the only one with an asterisk on his name, and the comments mention this explicitly.

Probably should either remove the Asterisk on Bradshaw's name as the commentary already addresses this, or make it a ** and add a ** footnote to this effect.

edit - I see it is fixed now.

4
by Otis Taylor89 :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 8:23am

Yeah, that video is definitely worth the view.
I didn't see the game, but it looks like the Jags came to play and the Ravens got stuck at BWI and couldn't make the flight to London.

22
by Noah Arkadia :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 11:31am

The song is actually pretty good! It could possibly be better accompanied if it ended with a big chorus of "we're whacko, we're whacko... we don't think he's elite we're whacko..." I don't know. Maybe not.

65
by dbostedo :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 8:09pm

That WOULD make it better.

I was a bit confused by the part about how he could win with his legs too...

5
by Otis Taylor89 :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 8:32am

What will Deshaun Watson turn into?
Is he going to stay exactly the way he is now, which is streaky as far as accuracy and decision making or will he improve on both to be a better Russell Wilson?
He doesn't have the arm of Wilson, but he's seems to have similar instincts in the pocket, is as tough and is taller and maybe faster.
If Watson gets on a roll, I see him having a similar rookie season as Wilson in 2011 and with that defense they could go pretty far.

6
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 8:52am

If FO had a catch difficulty adjustment for receivers, I think Larry Fitzgerald may have made the most valuable list. One of those receivers who, as great as his metrics are, makes me wonder what they would have been with consistently good qb and o-line play. It is no disrespect to Jerry Rice to observe that there has never been a great wr who played in a more favorable environment.

9
by Tim R :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 9:49am

His play during the cards superbowl run was insanely good.

11
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 10:09am

It's been a couple good years of Warner, and a couple from Palmer, with about 2/3 of his career with awful to mediocre qb play, often behind bad to mediocre o line play. Contrast that with Rice, who nearly every year had a qb capable of MVP level performance, and nearly every year played with a good o-line.

20
by BJR :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 11:26am

He really has spanned the entire spectrum in terms of the QB play he has been paired with. Warner was obviously playing at a HOF level in 08/09, and Palmer's '15 season was MVP worthy. In between times he suffered some of the worst QB play imaginable (I'm too lazy to check, but I recall the '11/'12 assortment of Derek Anderson/John Skelton/Ryan Lindley setting records for futility).

Of course Fitz helped significantly in raising Warner/Palmer's play during those good seasons, and even in the terrible seasons he maintained a solid level of production. He's an absolute no-brainer for the HOF.

40
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 12:57pm

He also had several games with Kevin Kolb, who wasn't all that great even when he managed to stay on the field. There was also something called a Max Hall thrown in there.

16
by Travis :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 10:18am

since sacks became an official statistic in 1982

Times sacked and team defensive sacks have been official statistics since 1963; it's only individual defensive sacks that became an official statistic in 1982. (Archie Manning is another player with two 2/2/2 games, the 1982 one above and this one in 1974, in which he was sacked 3 times. Kim McQuilken and Dan Pastorini too.)

17
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 10:32am

Ah good old Kim McQuilken. I can't remember who has the record lowest passing offense DVOA, the '98 Chargers, '04 Bears, or someone else. But if/whenver DVOA gets to those pre-Steve Bartkowski Falcons team, I suspect there will be a new king.

19
by Travis :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 11:12am

It's going to be hard to beat the 1977 Buccaneers, but the 1974 Falcons have a chance.

51
by serutan :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 3:08pm

Are the Bobby Douglass Bears in the running as well?
______
Was wr

7
by jmaron :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 9:02am

Adam Thielen has 695 yards and an 82% catch rate. He was held to 1 catch for 7 yds in 2 of those games. He's had a lot of big games lately. I remember someone on twitter asking a few years back if you had a choice for a last player on the 53 man roster of Sherels or Thielen - I said Sherels - because I don't know squat about football. Fortunately the Vikings kept both.

10
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 9:56am

I hardly ever 2nd guess coaches' roster or depth chart decisions, because if you aren't watching practices, to say nothing about All 22 film (especially for receivers and dbs), you really don't even have the beginning of a clue. This isn't like basketball or baseball, where watching games on t.v. can keep someone really informed

11
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 10:09am

I was very impressed with Thielen in the handful of Vikings games I watched last year. In Cian Fahey's film study of Sam Bradford, he made a note of what a saavy route runner he is (no, he did not say he was "sneaky athletic"). I actually drafted him relatively high in my fantasy league.

14
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 10:15am

Oh, he's obviously terrific now, and you could always kind of tell the coaches loved his practice habits. You don't go from a guy who shows up for a local tryout marketing gimmick, to 9 million guaranteed (still an absurd bargain), unless the coaches love your practice habits.

18
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 10:35am

Yea, I was astounded when I found out that's how they got him. He's like a much better version of Vince Papale. I wonder who they'll get to play Mike Zimmer in the eventual Disney movie. It's too bad Dan Hedaya will be too old by then.

23
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 11:33am

A Mike Zimmer Disney Character, at the theme parks, is an interesting thought....."HEY, YOU KIDS!!!!STAY IN THE F*CKIN' LINE, AND KNOCK OFF THE GRABA$$ BULLSH!T!!!!

33
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 12:30pm

Okay, i know it's kind of peurile to make light of someone's medical condition, but if he's gonna be a Disney character, he needs to go with the full pirate eyepatch.

8
by Travis :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 9:10am

The Patriots recovered both of the others, one of which came two snaps before Brady hit Brandin Cooks for 25 yards and the winning score.

The fumble came 3 snaps before the TD; the play 2 snaps before the TD was a dropped interception.

15
by RickD :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 10:17am

Pats dodged bullets left and right on that drive.

75
by PatsFan :: Wed, 09/27/2017 - 7:42pm

Not to mention the DB inexplicably jumping up and taking a swipe at Cooks's head rather than bodychecking him as he caught it, which would have nigh-guaranteed he couldn't have gotten two feet in.

(In general I wonder why DBs don't take more advantage of the repeal of the forceout rule when defending near the boundary.)

77
by dmstorm22 :: Wed, 09/27/2017 - 9:51pm

Yeah, I thought the repeal of the force-out would have a far larger impact that it ended up having.

21
by BJR :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 11:30am

Newton's numbers are before defensive adjustments kick in.....yikes. Not sure what's going on there, but it needs to be mentioned. He has been utterly abysmal through three weeks. Panthers fans had better hope its injury related.

24
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 11:36am

Unless it is cumulative injury related, in which case, ugh, I hate, hate, hate, this aspect of the game.

25
by morganja :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 11:43am

Cam Newton can't practice throwing during the week. He's clearly not in good enough shape health-wise to play right now. This would be a great time to bring Kaep in until Cam is healthy. Kaep has a similar skill set to Cam Newton.

39
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 12:49pm

He came out of last year with injury issues, they never seemed to have cleared up, and now he's patently awful; I think injury can probably be blamed for this. Cam has carried that offense for years, and I can't imagine a reason for him dropping off a cliff like this other than injury.

45
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 1:21pm

Thank goodness he's banked about 90 million already. I really hate it when these guys start showing the cumulative effect of injuries before they have signed their 2nd contract. It's pretty sad to look at where Newton and Luck might he heading.

26
by morganja :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 11:45am

Will Allen has been absolutely correct about Matt Kalil. At least one time a game, sometimes more, he will simply not block his guy. It's like he has no peripheral vision. If an end stands 6 inches to his left, it's as if Matt Kalil can't see him.

28
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 11:55am

The most troubling aspect of Kalil's career is that despite his obvious limitations last year, I knew that somebody would give him a new pile of money.

32
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 12:28pm

Kind of on that subject, Will, I'm curious about how Riley Reiff has been doing so far this year?

38
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 12:47pm

Outside of a couple scrambles where Keenum went forward for yards and was touched down, I honestly don't know that the Bucs got a hand on Keenum all day, or even threatened him. Not sure how much of that was injury problems along the d-line, but, last year, I felt like my grandma could have gotten to the Vikings QB through that line and she's been dead for 20 years.

42
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 1:03pm

He's been good, as the entire line has, for two of three games. Nobody played well in Pittsburgh. They get 10 good o-line performances this year, they might win 12 or 13 games. They won 8 games last year with perhaps 1 good o-line performance.

53
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 3:48pm

How many games are you assuming Bradford will play? Keenum looked great last Sunday, but I don't know how likely it is that a career backup will put together multiple good games. Even then, I guess they could go the Jaguars route and use defense and running game to bludgeon their opponents.

56
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 4:02pm

It would take two full seasons of competent good play for me to believe in Case Keenum as anything beyond a decent backup.

57
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 4:23pm

With two really good receivers (including being really good at outfighting dbs for the ball), a good pass catching tight end, and a rb who runs, catches, and blocks well, 10 good offensive line performances, combined with solid defense, could reasonably be expected to translate into 12 or 13 wins, even with replacement level play at qb. You really don't see too many teams combine those specific non-qb variables.

Understand, I am not predicting that they will actually get 10 good o-line performances. I suspect we'll find out that the good performances in week 1 and 3 were in good measure the residue of the weakness of the Saints' and Bucs' front 7's, the Bucs' performance in particular being injury related. If I'm wrong, however, and Vikings qbs have 8 more games where they are made as comfortable as they were in weeks 1 and 3, 12 wins isn't unreasonable, even if Case remains on the case.

60
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 5:22pm

I guess that was the formula for the late-80's, post-Tommy Kramer Vikings. They had some good offenses with mostly Wade Wilson quarterbacking them, right?

As far as this Sunday goes, I think Keenum will be fine. One of the best games of his career came against the Lions last year, albeit in a losing effort: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201610160det.htm

63
by Will Allen :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 6:28pm

Yeah, that was the late 80s Vikings. Good defense, sound offensive line, receivers, and rb. Quarterback who could be tolerated to double digit wins, and then give you nothing in the playoffs, when you need something more from the position. There are worse football watching experiences, so I hope I'm wrong, and they can sustain their o-line play.

72
by t.d. :: Wed, 09/27/2017 - 9:10am

Surprisingly, Bortles has been good in both Jaguars wins (he was awful in the loss), and Fournette hasn't averaged 4 yards a carry in a game yet. I'm sure teams are stacking the box, helping Bortles out and hurting Fournette's effectiveness, but "run and rely on defense" hasn't really been what the Jags are doing, so far (the "rely on defense" part, sure)

27
by morganja :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 11:48am

I just had an awful thought. What if Matt Kalil is like an ostrich? Like if a defensive end closes his eyes before a play, Matt assumes that he can't see the defensive end either?

31
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 12:27pm

Or maybe he's a reverse Predator.

Instead of having a personal cloaking field himself, other people appear to be cloaked in his vision.

34
by deus01 :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 12:36pm

He could lack object permanence, so if a defensive end moves outside his vision he thinks that player has just disappeared.

52
by morganja :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 3:36pm

No doubt the result of a tragic childhood peek-a-boo prank by his older brother Ryan.

36
by techvet :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 12:41pm

Todd Collins, you the man!

37
by greybeard :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 12:44pm

I am surprised Garcon did not make it to top 5. I am curious to know what his DYAR was.

43
by ChrisS :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 1:03pm

Matt Stafford comment "He threw four passes from the 1-yard line (three at the end, plus one in the third quarter), and all were incomplete." The game ending play was a completion, for 0 yards and was actually way worse than an incompletion.

48
by theslothook :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 2:53pm

I think it says a lot that Joe Flacco ended up with under 20 attempts in the game he was buried behind in. Normally all those high attempt passing games come from offenses that are in shootouts or teams that are way behind. That suggests to me the Ravens are trying to hide Flacco, which is probably the right move but none the less stunning given that this is their quarterback they paid so much money to. I can understand the first contract but the second one feels like an indefensible move from Ozzie. He truly would be better w Jacoby briesset at qb.

50
by Travis :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 2:58pm

It's hard to rack up many pass attempts when you're going 3-and-out every drive. Flacco dropped back to pass in 22 out of the 35 snaps he played.

49
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 2:54pm

Probably should either remove the Asterisk on Bradshaw's name as the commentary already addresses this, or make it a ** and add a ** footnote to this effect.

Rogue asterisk by Bradshaw's name has been removed.

Ah good old Kim McQuilken. I can't remember who has the record lowest passing offense DVOA, the '98 Chargers, '04 Bears, or someone else. But if/whenver DVOA gets to those pre-Steve Bartkowski Falcons team, I suspect there will be a new king.

Team Passing DVOA:

2004 CHI: -50.6%
1998 SD: -35.7%
1992 SEA: -65.3%

I am surprised Garcon did not make it to top 5. I am curious to know what his DYAR was.

42 DYAR, tenth among receivers. Mostly hurt by his three incompletes, one of which was on third-and-3.

Matt Stafford comment "He threw four passes from the 1-yard line (three at the end, plus one in the third quarter), and all were incomplete." The game ending play was a completion, for 0 yards and was actually way worse than an incompletion.

Thanks. Fixed.

58
by nat :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 4:26pm

Anything on those Brady questions from me and dmstorm22? (comments 3 and 30)

59
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 5:06pm

* The five sacks were worth a combined -152 DYAR. That includes the fumbles.

* Taking away the fumbles, the sacks themselves were worth -73 DYAR. So the three fumbles were worth -79 DYAR on top of that.

* Changing the lost fumble to an INT adds -22 DYAR for a total of -174, but I should add that I THINK I'm doing that one right. There's a bunch of columns with data to change for this kind of thing and I may not be hitting them all.

61
by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 5:37pm

Thanks Vince,

This is interesting. Assuming here each fumble was weighted somewhat equally (correct me if this is way off), a fumble on a sack-fumble is worth somewhere near -26 DYAR, and an INT is worth closer to -50? That seems like it does make sense, given as nat mentioned above an INT is a guaranteed turnover, a fumble is not.

I would be interested to see if there is a large fluctuation in how much a fumble is worth on those sacks. Was any one far worse than the others?

To me, from a grading backward perspective they should be equal (V(sack) = V(Sack) + V(Fum|fumbled)), but I feel like this is wrong and some fumbles on sacks are worse based on down/distance?

62
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 6:13pm

Some variety in down and distance. A fumble is worse on first down than it is on third down, because a turnover on first down costs you three plays, while a turnover on third costs you one. Biggest factor, though, is type of fumble and where it happens. Fumbled snaps and sacks are frequently recovered by the offense because all the linemen are right there. Fumbles at the end of long runs or receptions are more often recovered by the defense because the fumbler is often the only offensive player in the vicinity.

64
by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 6:53pm

Interesting, should've known 1st down fumble would be weighted more heavily.

"Fumbled snaps and sacks are frequently recovered by the offense because all the linemen are right there. Fumbles at the end of long runs or receptions are more often recovered by the defense because the fumbler is often the only offensive player in the vicinity."

I guess this is the crux of the difference between sack fumble vs. interception. With the pick, it's a guaranteed turnover, and while the field position is better for the defense if they recover a sack-fumble, my guess is that is around, what, a 1/3 chance?

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by nat :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 9:17pm

That all sounds about right. Yeah, I thought fiddling the fumble/interception thing might be tricky. But your result is plausible, and probably right.

The lesson here, boys and girls is "Don't get sacked. Don't fumble. And for God's sake, don't throw interceptions."

Jeez. Brady's changing from ice cold ninja assassin to crazy gunslinger. Go figure.

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by TGT :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 9:12pm

Casam Keeford. CaseSam Keenumford? What are you doing? Also, Los Angeles didn't have any quarterbacks last year. Content is good, but fail on writing skills and editing.

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by Eddo :: Tue, 09/26/2017 - 10:04pm

They are combining "Case Keenum" and "Sam Bradford" into one name. And the Rams did play in Los Angeles last year.

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by burbman :: Thu, 09/28/2017 - 2:37pm

There is a question that has been rolling around in my head for a little while now regarding a certain polarizing unemployed QB and I am not sure where the best place to ask it is, so I guess I have settled on here.

Assuming said unemployed QB is asking between $10M and $12M for a single year of his services (for all I know it could be twice that), how many teams in the league have room under the salary cap to absorb that cost? How many of those teams have a demonstrable need for a top quality backup QB, or an averagish starter?

I know that there are teams in the league that could use his talents, but how many of them are so poorly run that they simply cannot find a way to afford to?

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by theslothook :: Thu, 09/28/2017 - 3:03pm

I'd be pretty surprised if he didn't come down from that number. Like most people, I don't think it's the salary that's keeping him unemployed. Unlike most people, I don't think its disdain by ownership.

I think it's a combination of a) he would be a distraction, b) he's been pretty sub par.

The combination suggests he's not worth it.

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by burbman :: Thu, 09/28/2017 - 4:31pm

An unstated addition to the distraction factor if he is signed as a backup, is the "When is he gonna start" and "Why isn't he starting, must be a conspiracy" questions that will inevitably crop up as soon as the starter has an off day.

Unless he is playing behind the like of Brady, Brees, Rothlisberger or Rodgers, it would truly be a distraction to the starting QB in pretty much any other market.

Those QBs might need two off days in a row before the same questions came up.