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» Week 11 DVOA Ratings

DVOA has finally climbed on board the Wentz Wagon! The Eagles move into the No. 1 spot, but they aren't the only strong, well-balanced team in the NFL this year. New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and the Los Angeles Rams make this one of the best seasons ever for multiple teams over 30% in DVOA, and Minnesota isn't far behind.

02 Oct 2017

Week 4 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

The Houston Texans entered the offseason in a bit of a weird spot. They were coming off their third straight nine-win season, their second straight AFC South championship, and their first playoff win since the 2012 season. But through it all, there had been a revolving door at quarterback, with four different starters in four years. A trade in March that sent Brock Osweiler to Cleveland guaranteed that the 2017 season would make it at least five in five. The Texans were on the verge of becoming serious Super Bowl contenders, but since they had to devote most of their resources each season to finding a new face at the game's most important position, it was hard to ever get past that point.

So it was time for a major move. The Texans made another trade with the Browns, sending the 25th pick of this year's draft and a 2018 first-rounder to Cleveland in exchange for the 12th pick, which they used to select Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson. There was no questioning Watson's success with the Tigers. He went 31-3 as their starting quarterback, including a 1-1 record in national title games. He won the Davey O'Brien and Manning Awards as the nation's top quarterback twice each, and also won the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award as the top senior quarterback in 2016. He also led the ACC in completions, yards, and passing touchdowns in 2015 and 2016, while adding another 21 touchdowns on the ground in those two years.

Still, there were questions. He threw bunches of interceptions, finishing second and first in the ACC in that category in his last two seasons at Clemson. He came out with a very modest projection in our 2017 QBASE forecast. There's also something to be said for the wisdom of the crowds. North Carolina's Mitchell Trubisky and Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes were both off the boards when Houston drafted Watson. For that matter, Cleveland had their issues at quarterback, and they decided they'd rather have Houston's draft picks than Clemson's signal-caller. It's not as if the Bears, Chiefs, or Browns (or any of the other teams that passed on Watson) have never made mistakes, but if he had been a sure-fire quarterback prospect, there was no way he would have gotten out of the top five.

Watson got a chance to show what he could do in the preseason and hardly lit the world on fire, completing just 29-of-56 passes with no touchdowns, an interception, and five sacks. Houston coach Bill O'Brien felt that veteran Tom Savage was the safer choice at quarterback -- at least, he did for 30 minutes, until Savage was sacked six times (or, one less sack than completed passes) with two fumbles in the first half against Jacksonville. Watson took over from that point, and if anything played even worse than Savage in the second half. He was hardly any better in Week 2, though he did have a 49-yard touchdown run that was the difference in a 13-9 win over Cincinnati. In Week 3, Watson and the Texans nearly upset the Patriots in New England, but he did throw a bad interception in a game Houston lost by only three points.

After that game, it would have been perfectly fair to call Watson one of the NFL's worst quarterbacks through three weeks of the season. Of the 28 quarterbacks with at least 75 passes by then, he was 20th or worse in passing DVOA and DYAR, as well as completion percentage, yards per pass, and NFL passer rating.

But then it all came together in Week 4. Heading into that game at 1-2, the Texans could have hardly afforded a loss to the 2-1 Tennessee Titans, which would have left them two full games behind the division leaders. Fortunately for Houston fans, the Texans were never in danger of losing, scoring early and often against Tennessee and winning by a final score of 57-14. Watson's numbers were stellar, completing 25-of-34 passes for 283 yards with four touchdowns, one sack, and one interception. He also had four carries for 24 yards and another touchdown. That's a 74 percent completion rate and 8.3 yards per pass. In their first three games, the Titans defense had limited Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, and Russell Wilson to a 62 percent completion rate and 7.5 yards per pass.

Long story short: Deshaun Watson just had one of the best rookie games we have ever measured.


All Rookie QBs, 160-Plus-DYAR Games, Regular Season, 1989-2017
Year Player Team Total DYAR Pass DYAR Rush DYAR Comp Att Yds TD Int Sacks Runs Yds TD Wk Def
2016 Dak Prescott DAL 254 247 7 27 36 301 3 0 1 2 16 0 11 BAL
2012 Russell Wilson SEA 214 182 32 23 37 296 2 0 2 9 71 0 13 CHI
1999 Cade McNown CHI 211 200 11 27 36 301 4 2 2 6 39 0 15 DET
2012 Andrew Luck IND 206 205 1 30 48 433 2 0 1 1 5 0 9 MIA
1999 Jeff Garcia* SF 202 193 9 26 34 373 2 0 1 6 36 1 17 ATL
2013 Geno Smith NYJ 194 179 16 16 29 331 2 2 0 2 16 1 3 BUF
2017 Deshaun Watson** HOU 189 174 15 25 34 283 4 1 1 4 24 1 4 TEN
1998 Ryan Leaf SD 188 183 4 25 49 281 1 0 1 3 18 0 8 SEA
2014 Derek Carr OAK 185 189 -4 22 28 254 3 0 1 2 2 0 14 SF
2003 Byron Leftwich JAC 184 179 5 21 34 226 2 0 0 1 6 0 13 TB
2012 Brandon Weeden CLE 184 183 1 26 37 322 2 0 2 2 6 0 2 CIN
2008 Matt Ryan ATL 177 181 -4 22 30 301 1 0 0 1 1 0 6 CHI
1999 Jeff Garcia* SF 174 172 2 33 47 437 3 1 0 1 12 0 13 CIN
1998 Peyton Manning IND 169 169 0 17 26 210 3 0 0 0 0 0 15 CIN
1998 Charlie Batch DET 165 160 5 14 23 195 2 0 1 1 9 0 12 TB
1994 Heath Shuler WAS 165 149 16 16 27 287 1 1 1 2 38 0 15 ARI
1993 Rick Mirer SEA 160 146 14 25 40 282 1 0 2 3 15 1 5 SD
2004 Eli Manning NYG 160 152 8 16 23 182 2 1 0 2 18 0 15 PIT
1993 Drew Bledsoe NE 159 167 -7 27 43 329 4 1 0 4 28 0 18 MIA
* 1999 was Jeff Garcia's rookie season in the NFL, but he had played five seasons with the Calgary Stampeders in the CFL.
** DYAR numbers subject to change as opponent adjustments fluctuate throughout the year.

(A quick aside: yes, Dak Prescott obliterated the single-game rookie record last year, and no, we did not mention this at the time. You'll have to forgive us for that. We were in the middle of a professional crisis, as the NFL suddenly changed their data feed format without warning, and we had to re-write our play-by-play parser on the fly in the middle of the season. This stopped us from doing much more than throwing numbers out there with little time for reflection. I was also going through something of a personal crisis, as my wife had just gone through major surgery and I needed time off to care for her. So we didn't realize the significance of Prescott's big game against Baltimore until … well, right now, honestly. So you can add "Best Single-Game Total DYAR" to the long, long list of records Prescott set in his debut season. But now our parser is working great -- hat tip to Abe vanderBent for his hard work -- my wife couldn't be healthier, and hopefully the next time a milestone like that falls, we'll be on the ball.)

It's important to remember that opponent adjustments are fluid, and can and will change between now and the end of the year. Watson's game could move up or down the table (more likely down, given the way several games are tightly clustered just beneath him) before all is said and done. Prescott's record, however, is likely safe.

For that matter, most of Prescott's records are probably safe. Watson has already thrown four interceptions in four games -- or, as many as Prescott did in 16 games. Going into Monday Night Football, Watson ranked 15th in passing DYAR and 13th in DVOA. He also ranked fifth among quarterbacks in rushing DYAR.

So no, Watson does not look like he'll finish as the best rookie of all time, or be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in 2017. He could, however be the best quarterback in the AFC South. With Andrew Luck sidelined indefinitely and Blake Bortles being, well, Blake Bortles, it's a two-way race between Watson and Marcus Mariota (who is dealing with his own health issues and may not play in Week 5). That could be enough to clinch a third-straight division title. And after that, Houston will finally be able to build around a quarterback, rather than acquire one.

This is the first week our Quick Reads tables include opponent adjustments. They are currently set at 40 percent, and will gradually increase throughout the season.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Deshaun Watson HOU
25/34
283
4
1
1
189
174
15
TEN
Watson's first pass of the second quarter was a 16-yard touchdown to Will Fuller that put Houston ahead 21-0. Up to that point, he had gone 10-of-12 for 151 yards and a couple of scores, with every completion going for a first down. There were four starters this week who didn't throw for 10 first downs in an entire game. Watson finished with a league-high 21 passing first downs this week, two more than anyone else. Meanwhile, he had only five failed completions. (Drew Brees had the most failed completions this week with nine.) On third/fourth downs, he went 9-of-10 for 63 yards with seven conversions and one sack.
2.
Cam Newton CAR
22/29
316
3
1
2
148
138
10
NE
This comment will read a lot like Watson's, but Newton had a somewhat similar game. Newton's last pass of the first half was a 10-yard touchdown to Devin Funchess that put Carolina ahead 17-13. Up to that point, he had gone 11-of-13 for 189 yards with one interception and a couple of scores, with every completion going for a first down. He was perfect up the middle, going 5-of-5 for 74 yards, with every completion going for a first down.
3.
Tom Brady NE
32/45
307
2
0
3
143
140
3
CAR
Ordinarily in this space I give you, the reader, some granular data about each quarterback and his performance in that weekend's game. Today, I would like to discuss Brady in the big-picture sense. Going into Monday Night Football, Brady led the league with 555 passing DYAR, 140 more than the next-highest passer (Jared Goff). He's completing 67 percent of his passes for 9.0 yards per throw, with 10 touchdowns. There is another quarterback, though, who is completing 70 percent of his passes, for 9.4 yards per throw, with 11 touchdowns. That quarterback is named Whoever Is Facing The Patriots Defense. I mean, think about this: Brady has put up the best individual stats of any quarterback this season, but it's barely enough to keep up with the mistakes his own defense is making when he's on the sidelines. If that doesn't tell you what a mess the New England defense has been this year, I don't know what will.
4.
Andy Dalton CIN
25/30
286
4
0
3
126
109
16
CLE
Almost all of Dalton's value came in two stretches of football, though it may not have been obvious live because halftime broke up the first of those stretches. But from the 3:49 mark of the second quarter to the 13:53 mark of the third, he completed seven passes in a row for 137 total yards, with every completion going for a first down (including two scores). Then, near the end of the third, he followed a 9-yard DPI with three straight completions for 10, 11, and 16 yards, with each of those going for a first down (and one touchdown) too. Otherwise, though, he only threw for five first downs the rest of the game, going 12-of-17 for 72 yards with three sacks and a fumble.
5.
Alex Smith KC
27/36
293
1
0
4
123
98
25
WAS
6.
Jameis Winston TB
22/38
332
3
0
1
117
110
7
NYG
Winston's first four passes: 12-yard gain on second-and-8; 6-yard touchdown; 12-yard gain on first-and-10; 58-yard touchdown to put the Bucs up 13-0. That was 80-plus DYAR right there on those four throws. It's a good thing he got off to that hot start though, because he struggled all day to keep drives alive. On third and fourth down, he went 5-of-10 for 82 yards with one sack and only three conversions.
7.
Jared Goff LARM
21/36
255
2
0
1
96
96
0
DAL
On the surface, it looks like Goff had a very good game against Dallas. Look deeper, and we see that he was outstanding over three-quarters of the field, then fell off a cliff. Inside the Dallas 25, Goff went 4-of-13 for 22 yards and just one first down (a 7-yard touchdown to Cooper Kupp).
8.
Philip Rivers LACH
22/38
347
2
0
2
93
93
0
PHI
Rivers was most effective throwing up the middle against Philadelphia: 7-of-10 for 167 yards, plus a 10-yard DPI on an 11th throw. Those completions included a 20-yard gain on third-and-14, a 50-yard gain on third-and-10, and a 75-yard touchdown to Tyrell Williams.
9.
Russell Wilson SEA
21/26
295
2
2
3
86
74
12
IND
Wilson's passing numbers on Seattle's first seven drives were deceptively good: 11-of-16 for 147 yards, but with two interceptions, two sacks (one for a safety), and only four first downs. Then he caught fire, completing each of his last 10 passes for 148 total yards and seven first downs (including two touchdowns), with one sack, as Seattle gained at least 74 yards and scored a touchdown on each of its last three drives. He had 106 DYAR in the fourth quarter, almost 30 more than any other quarterback this week (including overtimes).
10.
Eli Manning NYG
30/49
288
2
0
0
83
71
13
TB
Get this man a Slurpee. On passes that traveled 7 to 11 yards past the line of scrimmage, Manning went 12-of-15 for 123 yards. Anything shorter than that, he went 16-of-24 for just 102 yards (plus a 4-yard DPI); anything deeper, 2-of-10, 63 yards.
11.
Aaron Rodgers GB
18/26
179
4
0
2
69
69
0
CHI
Remember what we said about Jared Goff and how he just vanished over the last quarter of the field? Same goes for Rodgers, but at the other end. He had 11 first downs on the day, including four red zone touchdowns, but none inside his own 25. At that end of the field, he went 3-of-7 for 12 yards with two sacks. This was partly why Chicago's average field position after Justin Vogel's three punts was at the 30-yard line.
12.
Kirk Cousins WAS
14/24
220
2
0
0
61
57
4
KC
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Carson Wentz PHI
17/31
242
1
0
1
59
58
1
LACH
Wentz struggled throwing to his receivers and tight ends, but reaped great rewards when throwing to his running backs: 5-of-7 for 65 yards and four first downs, two of them third-down conversions. Six of those passes were thrown to Wendell Smallwood, but LeGarrette Blount also had a 20-yard catch on second-and-12.
14.
Drew Brees NO
29/40
270
2
0
1
55
51
5
MIA
Some quarterbacks can catch defenses off guard by passing on first downs. Brees is apparently not one of those quarterbacks. On first downs against Miami, he went 8-of-13 for just 36 yards. Only two of those completions resulted in first downs, and one of those was a touchdown to Michael Thomas from the 3-yard line.
15.
Dak Prescott DAL
20/35
252
3
1
2
51
47
4
LARM
The Cowboys had six possessions in the second half. On one of them, Prescott picked up four completions for four first downs on four passes, capping off the drive with a 28-yard touchdown to James Hanna. He did not throw for a first down on any of the other five drives, going 5-of-16 for 27 yards and an interception.
16.
Case Keenum MIN
16/30
219
0
0
2
51
51
0
DET
As Aaron Rodgers was the anti-Jared Goff this week, Keenum was sort of the anti-Carson Wentz. On throws to his running backs, he went 3-of-7 for 16 yards and no first downs. That includes incomplete passes on three third-down throws.
17.
Tyrod Taylor BUF
12/20
182
1
0
3
46
50
-4
ATL
Taylor was another quarterback who struggled in his own end of the field this week. Inside the Buffalo 25, he went 4-of-9 for 57 yards with one first down and one sack. Anything outside of that, he picked up seven first downs in 12 dropbacks.
18.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
18/30
216
1
1
1
44
44
0
BAL
In Week 1 and Week 3, we noted that the bulk of Roethlisberger's success came on throws to Antonio Brown. The shoe was on the other foot this week. On throws to Brown, Roethlisberger went 4-of-9 for 34 yards with one interception, two successful plays, and nary a first down to be seen. Now you know why Brown was so mad at that poor Gatorade bucket.
19.
Kevin Hogan CLE
5/8
65
0
0
1
15
15
0
CIN
There's really not a lot to say about Hogan's day, but how weird is it that Cody Kessler was 22nd in DVOA in 2016 -- better than Carson Wentz, Cam Newton, or Joe Flacco -- and now he has fallen down the depth chart behind not only DeShone Kizer, but Kevin Hogan as well?
20.
Matt Ryan ATL
24/42
242
1
2
1
15
10
5
BUF
Ryan's (and the Falcons') whole day was undone on the 15-yard stretch between the Atlanta 39-yard line and the Buffalo 47. Along those 45 frustrating feet, Ryan went 2-of-11 for 18 yards with two interceptions and a sack/fumble/touchdown.
21.
Derek Carr OAK
10/17
143
1
0
2
14
14
0
DEN
Nearly half of Carr's yardage came on a 64-yard touchdown to Johnny Holton. Otherwise, he had only four other first downs, and just one more successful play besides that. He converted only one third-down play, going 4-of-6 for 30 yards with one sack.
22.
Marcus Mariota TEN
6/10
96
0
2
0
11
-20
31
HOU
In a small sample size, this is about as streaky a day as you'll see. Mariota started out 1-of-4 for 6 yards with one interception and no first downs. Then he picked up first downs on five straight throws, gaining 90 total yards in the process. Then he threw an interception, and that was his last throw of the day.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Trevor Siemian DEN
16/26
179
1
0
4
-5
0
-4
OAK
First quarter: 7-of-9, 115 yards, six first downs (including a touchdown), plus one 30-yard DPI and one sack. Rest of game: 9-of-17, 64 yards, four first downs, three sacks.
24.
Carson Palmer ARI
33/51
357
2
1
6
-8
-9
1
SF
At the end of regulation, Palmer had -75 passing DYAR. He would have ranked 32nd this week if the 49ers had won in regulation, or had scored a touchdown instead of a field goal on their one overtime drive. Instead, Palmer led a game-winning touchdown drive, going 6-of-7 for 77 yards and the game-winning score, plus an 8-yard DPI. That's 67 DYAR, which almost would have made the top 10 by itself.
25.
EJ Manuel OAK
11/17
106
0
1
1
-9
-9
0
DEN
Manuel hit a handful of big plays to get into Denver territory, but couldn't do much after that. On the Broncos' side of the 50, he went 3-of-9 for 21 yards with an interception.
26.
Matthew Stafford DET
19/31
209
0
0
6
-19
-19
0
MIN
Stafford only converted three third downs, all of them in the first quarter. On third downs, he went 4-of-9 for 65 yards with two sacks and a fumble.
27.
Mike Glennon CHI
21/33
218
1
2
1
-41
-41
0
GB
Perhaps Mitchell Trubisky can bring the deep ball back to the Chicago offense. Glennon threw six passes that traveled more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage against Green Bay. Two were caught -- one by Kendall Wright for a 22-yard gain, the other by the Packers for an interception.
28.
Brian Hoyer SF
24/49
234
0
1
3
-42
-45
3
ARI
How to lead your offense to five field goals and no touchdowns: inside the Arizona 40, Hoyer went 9-of-15 for 52 yards and only two first downs, plus two sacks that lost 21 total yards.
29.
Joe Flacco BAL
31/47
235
1
2
4
-65
-65
0
PIT
In the first half, Flacco went 9-of-12 for only 49 yards with a sack. He had only one first down before halftime, and that came with Baltimore already down 19-0 late in the second quarter.
30.
Josh McCown NYJ
22/30
224
0
1
5
-69
-69
0
JAC
GABBERT WATCH: McCown's bad day this week basically cancels out his good game last week. Thanks mostly to his terrible Week 1 game, he now has -108 passing DYAR this year. That brings his career total to -1,439 DYAR, putting him back ahead of Ryan Leaf (-1,388 DYAR) for the second-worst career total since 1989, still way behind Blaine Gabbert (-1,928). There were only 34 -500-DYAR seasons from 1989 to 2016, so asking McCown to amass that total over the next 12 games might be a little ambitious. And if he does start to stink up the joint, he might get benched for Bryce Petty or Christian HackenBWAHAHAHA!!!! *Ahem* Sorry about that. As for this week, some of the turnovers in this game must be seen to be believed. Also, McCown is learning a lesson that will soon become valuable around the NFL: do not test Jalen Ramsey with throws to the right side. The Jaguars are allowing a league-low 5.1 yards per pass on balls thrown to the right. McCown went 8-of-12 on throws to his right, but for only 66 yards and three first downs.
31.
Blake Bortles JAC
15/35
140
1
1
1
-70
-87
17
NYJ
Did I mention that some of the turnovers in this game had to be seen to be believed? On third downs, Bortles went 5-of-12 for 34 yards, plus a 15-yard DPI, with only four conversions.
32.
Jacoby Brissett IND
16/29
157
1
1
3
-80
-79
-1
SEA
When the Colts got the ball for the first time in the second half, they trailed by an 18-15 margin in what was still a very winnable game. The next time Brissett completed a pass for a first down, the Colts were down by 21 points, and that was his only first down of the second half. In the third and fourth quarters, he went 2-of-9 for 15 yards, while losing 21 yards on a pair of sacks, one of which resulted in a fumble that the Seahawks recovered and returned for a touchdown.
33.
DeShone Kizer CLE
16/34
118
0
1
1
-97
-92
-4
CIN
Kizer had eight dropbacks between the 50-yard line and Cincinnati's end zone: One completion for zero yards; five incomplete passes; one interception; one sack for a 7-yard loss. Throwing to his right, he went 4-of-15 for 21 yards with no first downs and only two successful plays.
34.
Jay Cutler MIA
20/28
164
0
1
4
-101
-101
1
NO
Cutler's first third-down play resulted in a completion to Julius Thomas for a 23-yard gain on third-and-8. That was Cutler's last conversion on third or fourth down. After that, he went 2-of-5 for 8 yards with two sacks. The two completions were a zero-yard gain on third-and-20 and an 8-yard gain on third-and-25.
35.
Matt Cassel TEN
4/10
21
0
2
2
-165
-165
0
HOU
Cassel was paid more than $100,000 for this game.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Todd Gurley LARM
23
121
0
7/8
94
1
62
24
38
DAL
Five runs of 10 or more yards, seven first downs on the ground, only five runs for no gain or a loss. Gurley's receptions produced four more first downs, including a 53-yard touchdown and a 12-yard gain on third-and-5.
2.
Lamar Miller HOU
19
75
1
4/5
56
1
53
21
32
TEN
Though his longest run gained only 9 yards, Miller had five first downs on the ground and was hit for a loss just once. He had three first downs through the air, including a 32-yard gain on second-and-8 and a 14-yard gain on third-and-4.
3.
Kareem Hunt KC
21
101
0
4/4
20
0
47
45
2
WAS
Three gains of 10 or more yards, four first downs, 12 gains of 4 or more yards, and only four hits for no gain or a loss (all on first-and-10, so they weren't killers).
4.
Alvin Kamara NO
5
25
0
10/10
71
1
42
15
27
MIA
All of Kamara's runs gained at least 2 yards, two went for first downs, and one gained 12. Five of his catches produced first downs, and four of those gained 11 yards or more.
5.
Ameer Abdullah DET
20
94
1
3/4
15
0
40
40
0
MIN
A long run of 29 yards, another run for 12, and three short-yardage conversions, all while being hit for no gain or a loss just four times.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Kareem Hunt KC
21
101
0
4/4
20
0
47
45
2
WAS
2.
Ameer Abdullah DET
20
94
1
3/4
15
0
40
40
0
MIN
3.
Dion Lewis NE
4
18
1
1/1
9
0
30
24
6
CAR
All of Lewis' runs came on first down, three of them in goal-to-go situations. He gained at least 1 yard on all of them, and at least 4 yards on three of them.
4.
Todd Gurley LARM
23
121
0
7/8
94
1
62
24
38
DAL
5.
Le'Veon Bell PIT
35
144
2
4/6
42
0
9
24
-15
BAL
Nine total first downs on the ground, including gains of 16, 17, and 21 yards, while being hit for no gain or a loss four times. But 18 of Bell's carries were worth negative DYAR, most of them ineffectual gains of 2 or 3 yards. That is why his rushing value is about the same as a guy who ran four times for 18 yards.


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Melvin Gordon LACH
10
22
0
1/3
7
0
-28
-13
-14
PHI
Gordon did pick up first downs on runs of 11 and 12 yards, but his other eight carries had a net gain of -1 yard. Seven of them gained 1 yard or less. His one completion was a 7-yard gain on second-and-15.


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Mike Tolbert BUF
8
32
0
0/0
0
0
-18
-18
0
ATL
No first downs and a long run of only 9 yards -- and that ended in a fumble.


Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
DeAndre Hopkins HOU
10
12
107
10.7
1
59
TEN
Only one of Hopkins' catches failed to pick up a first down, and that was a 5-yard gain on second-and-11. He converted two third downs and one fourth-down play. His DYAR accounts for a 13th target, a 13-yard gain on a DPI.
2.
Kelvin Benjamin CAR
4
4
104
26.0
0
51
NE
All of Benjamin's catches resulted in first downs, including a 43-yard gain on third-and-9 and a 39-yard gain on third-and-4.
3.
Cooper Kupp LARM
5
7
60
12.0
1
46
DAL
Four of Kupp's catches resulted in first downs; the fifth was a 10-yard gain on second-and-11. His DYAR accounts for an eighth target, a 25-yard DPI.
4.
Tyler Kroft CIN
6
7
68
11.3
2
43
CLE
All of Kroft's receptions resulted in first downs, including two third-down conversions.
5.
Travis Kelce KC
7
8
111
15.9
1
42
WAS
Kelce's DYAR totals include 6 DYAR rushing for his one carry, a 3-yard gain on third-and-2. Six of his catches produced first downs, including a 32-yard gain on third-and-14 and two gains of 20 yards.


Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Taylor Gabriel ATL
0
5
0
0.0
0
-36
BUF
It's not just the five incompletions -- three of them came with 1 yard to go, including two plays on third or fourth down. Failures to get the first down there are killers.

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 02 Oct 2017

53 comments, Last at 04 Oct 2017, 3:07pm by The Ninjalectual

Comments

1
by Cogitus :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 5:23am

go Tolbert!!

2
by Jerry :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 5:45am

Proofreading:

"in out 2017 QBASE forecast"
"often against Tennesse"
"He has already thrown four interceptions in four games" 'He' probably wants to be 'Watson' there to eliminate ambiguity.
Rivers: "10-yard DPI an on 11th throw"
Hopkins: "He convert two third downs"

And, Vince, I'm glad to read that your wife is well.

52
by roguerouge :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 6:53pm

Very much, glad for better health for your family.

3
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 7:31am

Certainly enough from Cousins to keep the hopes for a 100 million dollar guarantee alive.

4
by billprudden :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 7:46am

Since I don't believe that this is the year for my beloved Raiders, this - Cousins and a huge multiyear contract - is my rooting interest for this season.

6
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 8:12am

Im actually being conservative with the hundred million. If the D.C. team wins a playoff game or two, and Cousins is above average by conventional stats, I think he might see more than 125 million guaranteed, which would be awesome. It's just great to see a guy bet on himself, and see it pay off.

11
by billprudden :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 9:50am

Couple thoughts about whole situation:

1) Still can't get over a front office going out of its way to burn bridges with their franchise QB. I wonder if it comes down to Snyder, and his having dug in his heels at some point in this saga, perhaps as early as day 2 of that year's draft, and now if Kirk is "right" then it means Danny was wrong...

2) Agree with you that total figure, and guarantees, are almost impossible to estimate at this point. He'll be 29.5y next March, having played 62 games if he starts all 16 this year. For both the set of owners who actually want to win and the other set, who just wanna sell tickets and swag, he could be seen as a 5 - 10 year solution. He is white, 6'3, has infectious enthusiasm, a great backstory, and clearly loves to push the ball deep down the field.

3) With every aging and less-effective QB, his market value goes up. Eli and Flacco are making Kirk big bucks. Might even the Chargers decide they need to "re-brand" the franchise? A fresh start in NO? A post-Bortles Jags team? And this is without the obvious SF connection.

4) We've now had two top-tier players in recent years who bet on themselves and maximized their earnings, Cousins and Revis. Revis not only got the money he wanted, he got a ring too. I'll be very interested to see if a premier pash rusher, OL, or WR, for instance, tries a similar route. Clowney, as an example, jumps to 14m next year with Hou's 5th year option. Take that money, then either get the franchise tag or be a F/A? And the year after, and after, and after? There's always gonna be a team that thinks they are 10 sacks away from greatness, right? Or what about a unique talent like Desean Jackson? Every spring every coach says they need to stretch the field more, and nothing fires up fans like the idea of vertical passing. And you could say "this move makes all of our other WRs and RBs better too". As long as they were perfect teammates at each stop, AND DIDN'T GET TOO HURT TOO OFTEN, I think they'd easily make 125% to 150% of their 6-year contract value, and even that contract would be perhaps 50% guaranteed...

Bill

53
by The Ninjalectual :: Wed, 10/04/2017 - 3:07pm

Well #1 is certainly correct. Remember how the team actually picked up RG3's 5th year option, about two years after it was clear the guy's NFL career was shot? It wasn't the football guys making that decision

27
by lokiwi :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 12:30pm

Bradford's injury probably helps his chances, too. Bradford is less than a year older, and after one season and one game with the Vikes looked like he would be another viable long term solution on the market at the same time. But missing 2 game with a non-contact injury in his problem knee? No way is he in line for a long term guarantee now. Leaves Cousins as the clear first option, and he's going to get paid.

29
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 12:52pm

Just listing all the teams that will very likely or even very possibly want a QB next year:

Washington (ha, ha!)
NY Giants
Arizona
SF
Minnesota
NY Jets
Jacksonville
Cleveland
Baltimore

I'm assuming San Diego and New Orleans continue to roll with their old guys, and Denver's happy with Siemian, but, Washington joke aside, seems like there's a solid eight teams next year that are really going to be interested in a QB. Sure, theoretical strong QB draft and all, but, wow, that's going to be a feeding frenzy.

30
by Biebs :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 1:08pm

I thought the Saints are very likely to cut Brees after this season. I think the contract voids pretty easily.

37
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 3:33pm

I just have an incredibly hard time imagining Sean Payton cutting Drew Brees. What he needs to do is figure out how to rework Brees' contract to kick the salary cap can a bit further down the road, and then continue having bad defenses. I've really enjoyed the continued mediocrity of the Saints.

46
by dank067 :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 4:39pm

His contract actually voids automatically after this season—for all intents and purposes Brees is not under contract next year. So there is also the chance that he decides he's done with New Orleans and tries to find a contender to take one last shot.

31
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 1:14pm

not sure about nyg. did draft d. webb pretty early in drfat. if they think he will be good then will just go with e. manning again 2018 with webb heir apparent barring ibnjuries to either or both of them

39
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 3:34pm

Forgot about Webb, and, really, the Giants shouldn't be on that list. Manning doesn't look terrible at this point, he's just behind an utterly awful line. Eli likely sticks around for a year or two, as he certainly hasn't descended into Flacco-dom.

32
by Cogitus :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 3:19pm

It's even more shocking reading that list that Kaepernick hasn't been signed yet. I mean, for Jacksonville and Baltimore especially it simply HAS to be the right high-upside, low-downside risk to take. Those are two teams with super talented defenses that are going absolutely nowhere if they continue to field the excrement they've been playing at QB. There is no legitimate reason not to try to roll the dice with Kap here, is there?

The Raiders seem like a good fit too right now if Carr misses 4+ games

34
by billprudden :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 3:23pm

The ghost of Al Davis, with his civil rights record (Amy Trask, Art Shell, Tom Flores), would I think love the team signing Kap. Only downside is that it would let other 31 owners off the hook, and I suspect he enjoys watching them twist.

Can you imagine the look on Al's face when he looked up from hell and heard Biscotti say "Pray for us"?

41
by Richie :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 3:38pm

"Can you imagine the look on Al's face when he looked up from hell and heard Biscotti say "Pray for us"?"

LOL

35
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 3:24pm

Raiders QB situation just fine for few weeks. Kaepernick comign requires qwweek of getting playbook down and then rearranging of offense a bit to cater to unique skill set. no worth it in ym opjnion. Not necesarrily you, but god forbid you say seomnthing not positive about Kaepernick or political battle will styart. (my comment here was strictly fofotball related anyway( .

45
by Cogitus :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 4:12pm

Yeah true, I was thinking that he fits their persona and perceived need well, but for practical terms he's ill-suited---plus Manuel offers basically the same kind of boom or bust play, although he's quite likely to be all bust given what he's shown so far in his career

48
by EricL :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 5:37pm

According to 538, the Jacksonville home market is the 4th most Republican in the NFL. I think a Kaepernick signing would be a very tough sell in that market, no matter what the on-field impact might be.

38
by serutan :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 3:33pm

w.r.t Arizona, if the brain trust hasn't figured out that the only thing that can be done with Palmer is to break out the butter and jam now and draft a QB this spring, they should be fired immediately.

I didn't mind them not drafting one this year given how expensive moving up
would have been in a draft that was considered iffy. But next year there is nowhere to run, nowhere to hide as it were.
______
Was wr

40
by Richie :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 3:36pm

I think Miami could be on that list. Tannehill is cuttable after 2017, and I think it's time to move on from him.

43
by theslothook :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 3:52pm

The Castro thing makes him unsignable in Miami.

44
by Cogitus :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 3:58pm

I think he means for Cousins, not Kaepernick, unless Cousins also has a alt-left agenda I'm unaware of (which would be curious considering he's on the R*dskins)

51
by Richie :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 6:14pm

Yeah, I was talking about Cousins.

I think he has more upside than Tannehill. But he seems to mix in a few games per season where the offense just stagnates, like week 1 against Philadelphia. I don't know if I would want my team co commit $125m to somebody like that. But surely somebody will.

9
by RickD :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 9:39am

You think the Raiders would be interested in Cousins? Or do you mean just in general you'd like to see him get a big contract? The NFL's worst-kept secret is that Kyle Shanahan wants him in SF.

10
by billprudden :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 9:47am

no no, I just want to see him do well...

5
by ammek :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 7:50am

I love the Matt Cassel line.

This week's best backs and receivers are brought to you by the letter K.

As implied in the Kareem Hunt comment, the Chiefs offense seemed to have a real split between first down and other downs. Every time I looked in, they were in 2nd-and-9, or 2nd-and-20; then I'd turn my back to give the pot a stir, and lo and behold when I looked in again they still had possession and another set of downs with it.

I have no insight into how the Rams adjusted at halftime, but the second half showed the nimbleness and intelligence I've come to expect of a Wade Phillips defense. Poor DaK Prescott's numbers take the hit for it here, but it seemed to me to be a question of Phillips being a step ahead of the offensive coordinator – not for the first time.

Happy to hear your wife is better, Vincent. Thanks again for all the work you put into Quick Reads.

7
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 9:27am

Somewhat shocked there were six QBs worse than Joe Flacco. Then again, I flipped to a different game late in the first half, at which point he was hovering around 4 YPA.

The OT games this week were between the #24 and #28 QB, and #30 and #31 QB. If there were two games that totally needed to give almost ten more minutes of excitement each, it was totally those.

15
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 10:19am

The glass half-full view is that each game was potentially spared 5 extra minutes with those QBs after the rules change.

8
by RickD :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 9:36am

I love Dion Lewis, certainly, but are we sure that rushing 4 times for 18 yards and one TD should get as much DYAR as rushing 35 times for 144 yards and 2 TDs?

12
by nat :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 10:04am

That does seem odd.

13 of Bell's plays were 2 yards or less, with no first down gained. Six of those were for no gain or a loss. Those could be below replacement level.

13 plays either gained at least six yards or gained a first down or touch down. Those would be well above replacement level.

9 plays were good for 3-5 yards and did not gain a first down. I'd guess those were above replacement level, too. But not by a lot.

My only guess here is that those negative plays were worse than we think compared to replacement level.

13
by ammek :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 10:06am

Yes, I'd be interested to know if anyone has ever had more rushing DYAR with fewer rushing yards than Lewis. Once the full adjustment is made for the Panthers' run defense, it might even increase.

20
by Travis :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 10:45am

Start by looking at players who ran for 17-yard touchdowns off fake field goals. (Joe Prokop in this game, for one.)

On a related note, how many DYAR did Lac Edwards get for his 4th-and-21 converting fake punt pass?

19
by nat :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 10:34am

I'm realizing that your question was more about why Lewis's runs would have rated so highly.

A TD from 1st and goal from the 8 is really good. I'd guess that that play accounts for more than half the DYAR. It's kind of like getting a 20+ yard pick up on first down as far as value goes, since TDs are even better than first downs which are worth extra DYAR yards themselves.

Still, 24 DYAR seems a bit high, doesn't it?

14
by johonny :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 10:10am

Is Cassel starting against Cutler this week? The non-moving object versus the reasonably priced lack of force. Who doesn't want to watch?

17
by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 10:24am

They should switch sides at halftime, and see if anybody notices. I bet Jay doesn't.

26
by johonny :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 12:29pm

hahaha

42
by Richie :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 3:40pm

Wait. Which one is non-moving and which one is reasonably priced?

16
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 10:20am

I'm actually kind of impressed with Matt Cassel for accumulating so much negative value in so few drop backs.

Efficiency!

21
by PirateFreedom :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 11:29am

Rusher McFumbles rides again :)

33
by jtr :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 3:20pm

That'll happen when you manage two interceptions, two sacks, and a lost fumble in only 12 dropbacks. He had only one more completion than turnover.

18
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 10:30am

Context for Eli Manning being so successful between 7-11 yards; Tampa has two very good LBs in pass coverage (Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David), both of whom were out for the entire game. Safety T.J. Ward also didn't play, meaning the only starter in the middle of the field was *HEAVY SIGH* Chris Conte.

22
by RickD :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 11:38am

So...with those guys out and the Pats' secondary doing their impression of the Keystone Cops, what's the over-under on combined total passing yardage Thursday night? 900 yards? Do I hear 950?

23
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 12:08pm

Don't forget to add in Tampa's largely invisible pass rush. Well, plenty of pressures, but one sack. All year. No, really. Three games, one sack.

In all honesty, my expectations are a Patriots blowout. Jameis Winston has traditionally been . . . a mite overexciteable during big moments, and his national night game history is, shall we say, spotty at best. I'm expecting the Patriots to club the Bucs on Thursday based largely on a few early turnovers by Winston, at which point he'll calm down, play much better, and still lose.

24
by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 12:13pm

Yeah, the game either is really close, or the Pats blow them away.

I think we'll know rather early what level of Bucs offense we are going to get. They have a fairly high-risk way of playing - but then again so does Carolina and they looked fine marching the ball up and down.

Are all the guys mentioned above still out? If so, I really fear for Tampa.

The lack of sacks isn't a huge problem. From what I know they're still getting decent pressure.

28
by ammek :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 12:35pm

The most remarkable thing about Aaron Rodgers' DYAR* is how unremarkable it is. Aside from the 115 DYAR he put up in the corresponding fixture last season, and a couple of games with around 150 DYAR, Rodgers has historically been very boom-or-bust against the Bears. Since 2009, he's had five games against Chicago with 200-ish upwards DYAR, but in seven regular-season games he didn't top 31 DYAR. That leads to one of those strange cases where he has hardly ever had an average game (of about 100 DYAR) against the Bears.

It's especially odd as 'Rodgers' is now, I think, 16-3 against Chicago when he attempts more than a couple of passes. It's the defense, really, that comes to life against the great rival. That, in turn, leaves Rodgers with less to do than usual, which may explain why he has dropped back 32 times or fewer in nearly half of his games against the Bears (9 of 19) versus barely one-quarter of games against other opponents (35 of 134).

* All DYAR figures taken from the Quick Reads archive; thus, not the final end-of-season numbers.

25
by Charles Jake :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 12:26pm

As a Bears fan, for some reason I find it hilarious that Glennon was better than Cutler, Hoyer, or McCown.

An object at rest cannot be stopped.

36
by serutan :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 3:25pm

And the reason is of course unrelated to "It is better to laugh than to cry".
______
Was wr

47
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 4:59pm

Proofreading:
"in out 2017 QBASE forecast"
"often against Tennesse"
"He has already thrown four interceptions in four games" 'He' probably wants to be 'Watson' there to eliminate ambiguity.
Rivers: "10-yard DPI an on 11th throw"
Hopkins: "He convert two third downs"

Fixed. Thank you. And thanks everyone for the kind words about my wife.

3) With every aging and less-effective QB, his market value goes up. Eli and Flacco are making Kirk big bucks. Might even the Chargers decide they need to "re-brand" the franchise? A fresh start in NO? A post-Bortles Jags team? And this is without the obvious SF connection.

This is a fantastic point. The stars are really aligning for Cousins.

I love Dion Lewis, certainly, but are we sure that rushing 4 times for 18 yards and one TD should get as much DYAR as rushing 35 times for 144 yards and 2 TDs?

Sigh. I knew this would come up. Well, let's start with Lewis, since it's just a handful of plays. His worst run was a 1-yard gain on first-and-10. That's a negative, for sure. But then he had a 4-yard gain on first-and-goal from the 6, a 5-yard gain on first-and-goal from the 6, and an 8-yard touchdown. So, one score, and two runs that virtually guaranteed scores. Those are quite good.

I don't have time to break down each of Le'Veon Bell's 35 runs one-by-one, but as I pointed out, 18 of those runs -- more than half -- were worth negative DYAR. He had 18 yards on those 18 carries.

Now let's look at the 17 carries that gained positive DYAR. His most valuable runs were his two 1-yard touchdowns. Then he only had three 10-yard runs, and the longest of those gained 21 yards. Those are modest numbers for a guy with 35 runs. Put this another way: take out those five runs, and you're left with 30 carries for 88 yards (2.9 per carry ) and no scores. Point being, Bell had a lot of bad runs (statistically, at least) and his good runs weren't overwhelmingly great.

On a related note, how many DYAR did Lac Edwards get for his 4th-and-21 converting fake punt pass?

20.

As a Bears fan, for some reason I find it hilarious that Glennon was better than Cutler, Hoyer, or McCown.

Well, it is pretty funny, when you think about it.

49
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 6:07pm

What would Cousins DYAR have been if Doctson held onto the TD?

50
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 10/03/2017 - 6:09pm

Remember when we had the irrational Stafford-Brady discussion?

Brady is currently playing with the 2016 Lions defense.

Hard to win, huh?