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» Week 11 DVOA Ratings

DVOA has finally climbed on board the Wentz Wagon! The Eagles move into the No. 1 spot, but they aren't the only strong, well-balanced team in the NFL this year. New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and the Los Angeles Rams make this one of the best seasons ever for multiple teams over 30% in DVOA, and Minnesota isn't far behind.

06 Nov 2017

Week 9 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

One year ago at this time, Jared Goff was the backup quarterback behind Case Keenum on a Los Angeles Rams team that had just lost its fourth consecutive game, on its way to a tenth straight losing season. With the 2016 season lost, Keenum was soon sent to the bench and the Rams promoted Goff, the player they had traded six draft picks to acquire in that year's draft. What followed were seven of the worst starts by a quarterback we've seen in a long, long time. Including sacks, Goff averaged 3.75 yards per pass play, the worst by any quarterback with at least 200 passes since Akili Smith in 2000 -- and he did this in an era when passing statistics are going through the roof. By almost any measure, Goff was the worst quarterback in the league last year. Out of the top 32 qualifying passers that season, Goff was 28th in interception rate, 31st in completion rate, and dead last in sack rate, touchdown rate, yards per pass, and adjusted net yards per pass. And of course, he finished with a DVOA of -74.8%, the worst we have ever measured for any player with at least 200 passes.

Oh, what a difference a year makes. Goff leads the league in yards per pass, and can be found in the top ten of most other passing stats as well. He's also fourth in DVOA at 24.0% heading into Monday Night Football. Goff hasn't quite gone from worst to first among quarterbacks in one season, but he has absolutely gone from "perhaps the worst quarterback we have ever seen" to "one of the better starters in the league."

It should go without saying that we have never seen this kind of year-to-year improvement in a quarterback before. The difference between Goff's DVOA this year and last year is 98.8%. To say this is the biggest year-to-year jump on record would be a grotesque understatement. Consider this: before this season, the biggest jump in DVOA from one season to the next we had ever recorded belonged to Nick Foles, whose DVOA went from -20.4% in 2012 to 35.6% in 2013. That's a difference of 56.0% -- barely half of the improvement Goff has shown this year. Foles is in second place in this table, but he is closer to 144th place than he is to first.

Biggest Year-to-Year Improvements in Passing DVOA, 1989-2017
Name

Year N
Year N+1
Difference
Year Team DVOA Passes Year Team DVOA Passes
Jared Goff 2016 LARM -74.8% 230 2017 LARM 24.0% 250 98.8%
Nick Foles 2012 PHI -20.4% 286 2013 PHI 35.6% 347 56.0%
John Elway 1992 DEN -23.5% 354 1993 DEN 27.8% 590 51.3%
Drew Brees 2003 SD -19.8% 374 2004 SD 31.4% 420 51.2%
Donovan McNabb 1999 PHI -51.6% 246 2000 PHI -1.4% 613 50.1%
Boomer Esiason 1992 CIN -29.1% 303 1993 NYJ 16.9% 496 46.0%
Jake Plummer 2002 ARI -20.1% 569 2003 DEN 25.8% 313 45.9%
Josh Freeman 2009 TB -31.1% 311 2010 TB 13.9% 503 45.0%
Jay Schroeder 1989 LARD -11.0% 216 1990 LARD 33.6% 365 44.6%
Troy Aikman 1990 DAL -20.5% 440 1991 DAL 23.5% 395 44.0%
Vinny Testaverde 1997 BAL -1.6% 493 1998 NYJ 42.2% 442 43.8%
Brett Favre 2008 NYJ -8.6% 550 2009 MIN 34.5% 564 43.1%
Case Keenum 2016 LARM -19.5% 345 2017 MIN 23.4% 250 42.9%
Philip Rivers 2012 SD -7.3% 576 2013 SD 34.8% 575 42.2%
Kerry Collins 1995 CAR -23.8% 461 1996 CAR 17.5% 381 41.3%
Matt Ryan 2015 ATL -1.9% 647 2016 ATL 39.1% 573 40.9%
Jim Everett 1993 LARM -21.4% 294 1994 NO 19.3% 560 40.7%
David Carr 2002 HOU -47.4% 529 2003 HOU -7.0% 309 40.4%
Matt Hasselbeck 2001 SEA -17.8% 360 2002 SEA 21.8% 443 39.6%
David Garrard 2006 JAC -4.6% 261 2007 JAC 34.3% 345 38.9%
Minimum 200 passes in both years (100 passes in 2017).

The 20 names on this list can be sorted into four categories:

Bad Rookies, Good Sophomores

This includes Goff, Foles, Donovan McNabb, Josh Freeman, Kerry Collins, and David Carr. Five of those six players were first-round draft picks, four of them going in the top five overall. All of them struggled as rookies -- most of them weren't even full-time starters -- who went on to take quantum leaps with a year under their belts and a full offseason as a top guy. This is something of a cautionary tale for Goff and the Rams. McNabb is the only true superstar in this category. Collins bounced around as a starter for five teams and played in the Super Bowl with the Giants. Carr spent half a decade as a starter for the Texans, leading the league in sacks taken three times, then another five years as a backup. Foles looks to be on a similar career path -- his 2013 campaign sticks out as one of the most out-of-place great seasons in an otherwise mediocre career you'll ever see. Speaking of weird, there's Josh Freeman, who set a franchise record with 80 career touchdown passes in Tampa Bay (a record that still stands, and with Jameis Winston's injury, is guaranteed to last at least one more year) even though they cut him during his age-25 season, and he played his last NFL game at age 27. This shows that big improvements in a player's second season don't necessarily guarantee long-term success.

Late Bloomers

These are guys whose big improvements came in their second or third year as starters, usually after several seasons on the bench: Drew Brees, Troy Aikman, Matt Hasselbeck, and David Garrard. That's two Hall of Fame players, a ten-plus-year starter who played in a Super Bowl, and the last good quarterback Jacksonville had before the dark empires of Blaine Gabbert and Blake Bortles.

Vets Coming Off Bad Years

This includes John Elway, Jay Schroeder, Philip Rivers, and Matt Ryan. Not surprisingly, these improvements coincided with coaching changes. By pretty much any standard, 1992 was Elway's worst year after his rookie season, while 1993 was one of his best, leading the league in completions and passing yards. As it happens, 1993 was also the year Wade Phillips and Jim Fassel replaced Dan Reeves and George Henshaw as head coach and offensive coordinator, respectively. Schroeder had a strange career. He went 8-2 as a starter in Washington in 1987, but lost his job to Doug Williams, and the team went on to win the Super Bowl. He had split time with Steve Beuerlein as the Raiders' starter in 1989, but then Art Shell replaced Tom Flores as head coach in 1990. Shell retained Terry Robiskie as offensive coordinator, but he gave Schroeder a permanent green light on the deep ball. Schroeder responded by leading the league in yards per completion for the third time, and also led the league in yards per pass. Rivers had one of his worst seasons in 2012, with a career-worst 6.8 yards per pass and a league-worst 311 yards lost on sacks. That was Norv Turner's last year in San Diego, and the next year Mike McCoy and Ken Whisenhunt got Rivers back on track -- he completed a league-best 69.5 percent of his passes. Kyle Shanahan was actually Matt Ryan's offensive coordinator in both 2015 and 2016, but given what we have seen from Ryan and the Falcons this year, it's fair to give him a good share of the credit for what Atlanta did last year.

Vets In Their First Seasons With New Teams

This includes Boomer Esiason on the Jets, Jake Plummer on the Broncos, Vinny Testaverde on the Jets, Brett Favre on the Vikings, Case Keenum on the Vikings, and Jim Everett on the Saints. The exact circumstances of each of these moves was different, of course, but each player was at least 29 years old in his first season with a new team, and each showed he wasn't washed up after all. This also shows that football is not an individual sport, and that sometimes a quarterback's performance is a symptom of his team's struggles, not the cause.

There is a fifth subgroup we could create here, which would be "Quarterbacks Who Played for the Los Angeles Rams in 2016." We have 672 instances of quarterbacks with at least 200 passes in back-to-back years -- what are the odds that two of those with the biggest swings would have been teammates? This is likely another case where the blame for a team's struggles can be spread far and wide, and not just dumped at the feet of the quarterback. It's not just that Goff is better this season than last, but also that Andrew Whitworth and John Sullivan are better linemen than Greg Robinson and Tim Barnes; that Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods are better wide receivers than Kenny Britt and Tavon Austin; and maybe most of all, that Sean McVay and Matt LaFleur are better coaches than Jeff Fisher and Rob Boras. Keenum, meanwhile, is enjoying similar benefits playing in Minnesota. It takes that kind of sweeping change throughout the organization to create the one-of-a-kind boost we've seen from Goff this year.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Jared Goff LARM
14/22
311
4
0
0
189
189
0
NYG
Goff was tied for most DYAR in the second half this week, despite throwing only six passes after halftime. He completed five of them, each for a first down, for a total of 102 yards. On third downs, he went 5-of-8 for 123 yards, with every completion picking up a new set of downs. A ninth third-down throw resulted in a 22-yard DPI and another first down. He threw five deep passes against the Giants. Three were complete for a total of 146 yards; a fourth was the aforementioned 22-yard DPI.
2.
Matthew Stafford DET
26/33
361
2
0
1
184
196
-12
GB
3.
Dak Prescott DAL
21/33
249
2
0
1
143
126
17
KC
Prescott didn't throw a single pass to his running backs, and only two to his tight ends, but 30 to his wide receivers. That's an extreme version of Dallas' typical attack. On the season, the Cowboys are 10th in targets to wide receivers and 20th in targets to tight ends, but only the Titans have thrown fewer passes to their running backs.
4.
Carson Wentz PHI
15/27
199
4
0
1
137
132
5
DEN
Wentz had some unusual passing splits by direction. He only threw two passes up the middle -- completions for 14 and 17 yards. He wasn't all that great throwing to his left: 6-of-11 for 75 yards, with 27 of those yards coming on one touchdown. And he was boom-or-bust throwing to his right, going 8-of-15, but gaining 128 yards and three touchdowns. All eight of those right-bound completions resulted in first downs.
5.
Blake Bortles JAC
24/38
259
1
0
0
123
116
8
CIN
Most of Bortles' value came on big plays that moved the Jaguars out of their own end of the field, but he didn't have a lot of luck finishing those drives. Inside the Cincinnati 40, he went 5-of-10 for just 23 yards.
6.
Matt Ryan ATL
24/38
313
2
1
2
109
109
0
CAR
Ryan struggled badly to keep drives alive. On third and fourth downs, he went 4-of-10 for 34 yards with only two conversions and one sack.
7.
Jay Cutler MIA
34/42
311
3
0
1
108
108
0
OAK
Cutler takes the biggest hit from opponent adjustments of any quarterback this week, because the Oakland defense is terrible. A lot of his production came in garbage time. From the point Oakland went up 27-16 with 4:37 left in the fourth quarter, Cutler went 9-of-11 for 109 yards and a touchdown.
8.
Jacoby Brissett IND
20/30
308
2
0
3
92
85
7
HOU
Brissett was lights-out on Indianapolis' first drive (completing all four passes for gains of 17, 11, and 15 yards, then a 45-yard touchdown) and then hovered just above replacement level for the rest of the game.
9.
Derek Carr OAK
21/30
300
1
1
1
88
102
-15
MIA
Carr threw a fair share of very short passes to receivers within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage with little success, but was much better on throws deeper than that: 13-of-18 (including 11 first downs) for 257 yards and a touchdown, plus a 19th throw that resulted in a DPI for a gain of 18 yards.
10.
Drew Brees NO
22/27
263
2
0
1
84
83
1
TB
Brees didn't throw a single pass in the red zone, but that's partly because he went right past it with touchdowns of 33 and 36 yards. Most of his mistakes came on throws to his left. On throws to his right or up the middle, he went 10-of-11 for 118 yards.
11.
Brett Hundley GB
26/38
245
0
0
3
78
61
18
DET
12.
Alex Smith KC
25/34
263
2
1
2
67
66
1
DAL
Travis Kelce narrowly missed our top receivers section this week, but Smith was clearly at his best throwing to his tight ends. Well, really, it was just Kelce. He went 1-of-3 for 3 yards throwing to Ross Travis and Demetrius Harris, but to Kelce he went 7-of-9 for 64 yards. All seven of those completions resulted in first downs, including a 2-yard touchdown. One of the incompletions was intercepted, but that came on fourth down with the Chiefs down by 11 late in the fourth quarter and had little impact on the game.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Eli Manning NYG
20/36
220
2
1
2
59
59
0
LARM
The magic passing range for Manning against Los Angeles fell 5 to 14 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. In that range, he went 7-of-9 for 88 yards. All seven of those completions produced first downs, including a pair of scores.
14.
Marcus Mariota TEN
19/28
218
2
1
3
58
55
2
BAL
Mariota gets extra credit for digging Tennessee out of long-yardage holes. He had two completions of 15 yards that failed to gain a first down (nobody else had any) and another that gained 10 yards but not a first down. Kirk Cousins was the only other passer this week with three completions that gained 10-plus yards but did not gain a first down.
15.
Josh McCown NYJ
14/20
140
1
0
1
54
43
11
BUF
GABBERT WATCH UPDATE: McCown now has -118 passing DYAR this year and -1,449 in his career, still trailing Blaine Gabbert's career standard of -1,928. You know, when I started putting this update in at the beginning of the year, I was not expecting McCown to have one of his best seasons. But McCown is completing more than 70 percent of his passes for the first time and has already matched a career high with 13 touchdowns while throwing a meager (by his standards) seven interceptions. Against the Bills, he didn't throw many deep passes, but he got some big results out of them: 2-of-3 for 43 yards, with a 25-yard touchdown on second-and-15 and an 18-yard gain on second-and-12.
16.
Russell Wilson SEA
24/44
297
2
2
2
52
19
32
WAS
Coming into the week, Wilson had 30 completions or DPIs on deep passes, second in the league behind Tom Brady. So Washington made a concerted effort to take those passes away. Wilson threw 14 deep passes against Washington, completing only three of them for 73 yards. Wilson was next to last in passing DYAR in the first three quarters, but first in fourth-quarter/overtime DYAR. In the fourth quarter, he went 10-of-14 for 151 yards with a pair of touchdowns and one (very critical) sack.
17.
Andy Dalton CIN
10/18
136
0
0
2
51
58
-7
JAC
Jacksonville's defense has been so dominant this year that Dalton gets the biggest boost from opponent adjustments of any quarterback this week despite only 20 dropbacks, about half as many as most other players in these tables. That's why Dalton ranks so high this week despite only throwing for five first downs. He converted his first third-down opportunity and then failed on all the rest, going 3-of-7 for 14 yards.
18.
Tyrod Taylor BUF
29/40
285
2
0
7
43
50
-7
NYJ
Taylor was at his best on passes that traveled at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage: 8-of-13 for 128 yards and two touchdowns, with a 14th throw resulting in a 16-yard DPI.
19.
Kirk Cousins WAS
21/31
247
0
0
6
27
58
-31
SEA
Cousins' rushing DYAR is so low because of a pair of aborted plays that lost a combined 14 yards, though Washington recovered both fumbles. His two completions on Washington's game-winning drive -- completions of 31 and 38 yards -- were worth 47 DYAR.
20.
Ryan Fitzpatrick TB
9/15
68
1
0
2
20
10
10
NO
All of Fitzpatrick's passes came with Tampa Bay down by at least 13 points in the second half. He threw four passes on third downs, all incomplete.
21.
Cam Newton CAR
13/23
137
0
0
1
10
-20
30
ATL
Newton did almost nothing on Atlanta's half of the field: 5-of-9 for 34 yards with only one first down, plus one sack.
22.
Jameis Winston TB
7/13
67
0
0
2
-8
-7
-2
NO
In his one half of action, Winston had only three plays on New Orleans' side of the field: a sack, an incompletion, and a 9-yard gain on third-and-13.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Drew Stanton ARI
15/30
201
2
1
0
-9
-12
3
SF
Stanton wasn't on San Francisco's side of the field often, but when he was there he mostly played well: 6-of-9 for 70 yards. One of those throws was intercepted, but all six completions resulted in first downs, including a pair of touchdowns.
24.
Joe Flacco BAL
35/52
261
2
2
2
-48
-51
3
TEN
Flacco threw seven passes to receivers 10 to 19 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Each of the seven passes was completed for a first down, gaining a total of 107 yards. He threw seven passes deeper than that. None were completed; two were intercepted.
25.
Brock Osweiler DEN
19/38
208
1
2
3
-54
-54
0
PHI
Osweiler failed to convert any of his first four third-down opportunities, and didn't convert a third down until the Broncos were down by 18 points and the game was nearly 25 minutes old. On all third and fourth downs, he went 7-of-14 for 71 yards with four conversions, including a touchdown. It came with Denver losing 44-9, but hey, it was a touchdown.
26.
C.J. Beathard SF
24/51
296
0
1
5
-90
-102
11
ARI
Beathard was last in DYAR this week when passing to tight ends (4-of-8, 40 yards, one interception) and next to last when passing to wide receivers (8-of-25, 147 yards -- 55 of them on one play). However, he was first in DYAR when passing to running backs (12-of-17, 109 yards).
27.
Tom Savage HOU
19/44
219
1
0
2
-110
-110
0
IND
Before his improbable late rally, Savage was almost completely ineffective against the Colts. He threw for only three first downs in the first three quarters, going 8-of-26 for 81 yards with one fumble-sack. This was against Indianapolis, mind you, who came into the weekend 30th in pass defense DVOA. Somehow, Savage still had a first-and-goal at the 7 with 18 seconds left to get a winning touchdown. He threw three incompletions, then was sacked and fumbled on fourth down.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Alvin Kamara NO
10
68
1
6/7
84
1
57
21
36
TB
Kamara did lose a third-down fumble, but he had three runs of 10 yards or more plus a 6-yard touchdown, while being hit for no gain or a loss just once. Four of his receptions gained at least 11 yards and a first down, including a 33-yard touchdown.
2.
Corey Clement PHI
12
51
2
1/1
15
1
55
35
21
DEN
Clement's only target resulted in a 15-yard touchdown on third-and-10. He had four runs that went for no gain or a loss, but also had 2- and 4-yard touchdown runs, plus a 28-yarder.
3.
Jay Ajayi PHI
8
77
1
0/0
0
0
45
45
0
DEN
Seven of Ajayi's eight carries gained at least 1 yard, the longest of them going for 14 and 46 yards, the latter a touchdown. That's as many yards on one carry with Philadelphia as Ajayi had in three of his seven games with Miami this year.
4.
Matt Forte NYJ
14
77
2
4/4
19
0
43
42
1
BUF
Three runs of 10 or more yards, with two touchdowns, while getting hit for no gain or a loss just twice. Only one of his catches was successful: a 13-yard gain on third-and-4.
5.
Lamar Miller HOU
10
57
0
3/4
34
0
34
24
10
IND
Miller's two catches were a 19-yard gain on third-and-5 and a 15-yard gain on second-and-8. He had four first downs on the ground, two of them going for 14 yards apiece, while being hit for no gain or a loss just once.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Jay Ajayi PHI
8
77
1
0/0
0
0
45
45
0
DEN
2.
Matt Forte NYJ
14
77
2
4/4
19
0
43
42
1
BUF
3.
Marshawn Lynch OAK
14
57
2
2/2
6
0
34
36
-2
MIA
Beast Mode lives! Lynch had his struggles against Miami, with five carries for no gain or a loss. But he had touchdowns of 22 and 3 yards, plus two more first downs on gains of 14 and 6 yards, the latter a conversion on third-and-3.
4.
Corey Clement PHI
12
51
2
1/1
15
1
55
35
21
DEN
5.
Lamar Miller HOU
10
57
0
3/4
34
0
34
24
10
IND


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Jonathan Stewart CAR
11
22
0
0/0
0
0
-67
-67
0
ATL
This is the worst game for a running back so far this season, and among the 10 worst games on record on rushing DYAR only. No first downs. In fact, no successful carries -- Stewart's two longest runs gained 9 and 4 yards, and he fumbled on both of them. Seven of his 11 carries gained 2 yards or less.


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Jonathan Stewart CAR
11
22
0
0/0
0
0
-67
-67
0
ATL


Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Robert Woods LARM
4
5
70
17.5
2
54
NYG
Woods' two touchdowns were a 4-yard gain on second-and-goal and a 52-yard gain on third-and-33. He also had two third-down conversions, one on a 10-yard catch, one on a 22-yard DPI.
2.
Terrance Williams DAL
9
9
141
15.7
0
52
KC
Williams' only failed completion was a 6-yard gain on second-and-13. Five of his catches produced first downs, the longest a 56-yarder.
3.
T.Y. Hilton IND
5
9
175
35.0
2
47
HOU
Hilton only had three first downs on the day, but what big plays they were: a 45-yard touchdown; a 30-yard gain on second-and-12; and an 80-yard touchdown on third-and-9.
4.
Jared Cook OAK
8
9
126
15.8
0
44
MIA
Six of Cook's catches gained first downs, including gains of 27 and 35 yards. He had three third-down conversions on the day.
5.
Golden Tate DET
7
9
113
16.1
0
43
GB


Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Aldrick Robinson SF
2
8
18
9.0
0
-43
ARI
Robinson's two catches: a 7-yard gain on first-and-10, and an 11-yard gain on fourth-and-14.

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 06 Nov 2017

49 comments, Last at 10 Nov 2017, 8:40am by Jerry

Comments

1
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 8:09am

“It's not just that Goff is better this season than last, but also that Andrew Whitworth [is a] better linemen than Greg Robinson...”

Having seen the Greg Robinson experience up close, I can believe this. You can’t understate how bad he is. I don’t think it’s a total coincidence that Matt Stafford’s excellent back to back games have coincided with Robinson being out of the lineup.

2
by Raiderfan :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 8:18am

"GABBERT WATCH UPDATE: Gabbert now has -118 passing DYAR this week and -1,449 in his career, still trailing Blaine Gabbert'..."
I think you mean "McCown has..."

8
by PatsFan :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 9:12am

And your chart has McCown with something like 43 passing DYAR this week, not -118. Do you mean -118 passing DYAR season-to-date?

33
by garion333 :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 3:08pm

Gabbert's so bad that moving forward all bad QBs will be referred to as Gabbert.

3
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 8:30am

Jay Schroeder may have been one of the most visually impressive terrible qbs ever. Howie Long still has nightmares anout spending the last chunk of his career on a team qbed by Schroeder. A good rule of thumb back then was that if Joe Gibbs gave up on you, you probably weren't an acceptable choice for starting qb.

6
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 8:57am

“Jay Schroeder may have been one of the most visually impressive terrible qbs ever.”

That’s the perfect way to put it. He had one of the prettiest deep balls, but otherwise couldn’t sustain offense. I wonder if things would have been better for him if weren’t for Bo Jacksons injury (that 1990 team was pretty good) and/or Al Davis’ spat with Marcus Allen.

10
by Mike B. In Va :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 9:19am

I dunno. I'm pretty sure they weren't actually as good as people thought, given that Buffalo absolutely destroyed them in the AFC Champ Game that year, and they were 9-7 the next year, which I think was really how good they were.

That was one of the worst beatings I've ever seen a team take.

36
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 4:45pm

As I recall, according to "You're Ok, It's only a Bruise" ...

Beuerlein outperformed Schroeder in 1989 and then demanded a raise. Schroeder was earning something like $1.5m over 3 years, Beuerlein was still on his rookie contract perhaps earning $100K total.

Al made him a lowball offer which Beuerlein refused and held out through training camp. When eventually he realised he wouldn't get more, he accepted the offer only to be told by Davis "That was the offer when I made it to you, now it's this" giving an even lower figure which of course pissed Beuerlein off no end and he sat out the year.

Apparently Al didn't like being held to ransom by a player so he came up with a plan that once Beuerlein resigned he'd sit on the bench and then be traded to a team like the Cowboys where he'd be guaranteed to sit as a backup to Aikman and never play again. And of course Marcus Allen was also rotting bench around that time. But that was Al's way of sending a message to anyone who might think about crossing him. Beuerlein became a free agent in 1993 and eventually had a Pro Bowl season in Carolina in the late 90s.

But Beuerlein wasn't on the Raiders roster through 1990 and I personally always thought that was a good part of why Schroeder played well. He didn't have anyone looking over his shoulder. As another poster said, the reason Gibbs chose Williams over him was that Doug was a leader whereas Schroeder was insecure and petulant (or something to that effect).

As for the 1990 AFC Championship blowout, the Raiders lost Bo the week before. Maybe he wouldn't have made a difference to the way the Bills K-Gun offense took them apart. But the two teams had already met in the week 5 Sunday night game and the Raiders blew a 10-pt lead with six mins to go and ended up losing 38-24! So they weren't that mismatched ... https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199010070buf.htm

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by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 5:29pm

Interesting thing about Beuerlein's trade to Dallas is that it actually backfired (in Al's eyes). Aikman got injured in 1991, and Beuerlein started and won 4 games (although he completed <50% of his passes), with 2 4th quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. He even started on won the first round playoff game. You can argue that the Cowboys supporting cast won those games more than he did, but I'm sure it increased his value when eventually became a free agent.

11
by usernaim250 :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 9:45am

I have to disagree. Schroeder was quite a bit better than functional. Frustrating because of the short passes in the dirt, but 61-38 as a starter, 7.1 y/a. He qb'd two teams to excellent seasons and conference championship games.. If you read the local reporting on the '87 Redskins, it's clear that Williams got the ball because Gibbs and the other players liked him much better.

As far as Gibbs discards, in addition to Scheoeder's success, Stan Humphries brought San Diego to the Super Bowl.

12
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 9:48am

Go tell it to Howie.....

4
by big10freak :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 8:49am

I think Collins career merits a bit of asterisk given his issues with alcohol. Who knows how that impacted his abilities as a player?

13
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 9:53am

Yep, nearly drank his way out of the league, before righting the ship. Man, that 1994 Penn State team was probably the best to never win a national championship. Never came close to losing a game, and lost the number 1 spot for failing to run up the score on one opponent. NfL talent up and down the roster.

5
by big10freak :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 8:54am

Hundley's results are pretty deceiving. He missed multiple guys not just open but wide open as he cannot keep his eyes downfield being obsessed with the pass rush. MM doesn't help much as Hundley's strengths include the read/option which MM called maybe once last night.

I don't agree with the majority that Hundley is a disaster/terrible/etc, etc.

I do think that since MM was so adamant that he and his staff have invested years in Hundley then folks have a right to expect a bit more in terms of risk taking versus this obvious risk aversion. As I said in the game thread if this output shows MM's investment abilities I am glad he doesn't manage my 401k

7
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 9:04am

Hundley has some glaring flaws (as you pointed out, looking at the pass rush instead of his reads being the biggest one) but he’s got potential. If McCarthy can teach him to step up into the pocket instead of running out of the back of if, that will help his cause greatly. Also, lot of his plays seemed to be 3 guys in routes against 7 in coverage, which is not optimal for a guy who’s not good at moving around in the pocket.

14
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 9:57am

He's got a long ways to go, and who knows if he'll get there, but his cause would have been helped last night if Adams makes a moderately difficult catch, by NFL standards, instead of making a half assed catch attempt, on that 1st deep shot in the first half. You never know what'll make a young guy calm down, and play with more confidence.

17
by big10freak :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 10:10am

Agreed. That is one of the issues with the team as a whole. The veterans are not helping. Adams, Daniels, Perry. The first guy is a real puzzler as he is playing for his big contract. Nobody should be more motivated. Daniels and Perry both got paid and while both have had nagging injuries last night were almost complete no shows.

Everyone in Packerland wants Capers canned, but if your allegedly best guys are not making plays what can one expect from the defense?

24
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 11:51am

I stopped watching the game at halftime when Hundley had 18 attempts for 80 yards. There's avoiding risk, and then there's whatever the Packers offense was doing.

9
by Otis Taylor89 :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 9:15am

Matt Stafford has had back-to-back games of DYAR over 180, both coming directly out of the bye. DET's offensive seems to be a well oiled machine and if they could just straighten out their Red Zone issues (this means you Kenny Galladay), they are going to be a tough out (look at their remaining schedule).

16
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 10:08am

Hey man, as a certified Lions optimist, I’d like to pump the brakes a little bit. A “well oiled machine” can actually convert a 3rd and short and run the ball to chew clock when they have to. They reminded me of the 1992 Oilers last night (Edit: pun not intended)

I am very curious to see how they look when Taylor Decker comes back.

19
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 10:36am

Well, the Vikings are only a little bit better off than where they were last year, after 8 games, with the advantage of having much younger, healthier, guys on the o-line. Even so, they have suffered very significant injuries, and if their luck with injuries doesn't improve in the 2nd half, they might really struggle to get to 9 wins, given how the schedule toughens. Who knows where Bridgewater and Bradford stand, which means they are a hit away from going from so-so Keenum to Sgt. Sloter flying off the top rope. The defense is very good, but not yet great. They need good injury luck.

27
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 12:35pm

The Vikings quarterback situation in the second half is one of the more fascinating second half storylines to me. If Bridgewater and Bradford are both healthy at the same time, I have no idea would I would do if I were the Vikings coaching staff.

28
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 12:51pm

I'd go with Bridgewater because his age is such that he's the one you'd rather sign to the next contract. May as well find out how truly recovered he is.

47
by LionInAZ :: Thu, 11/09/2017 - 10:02pm

Yeah, multiple failures to score from the opponent's 1 yd line on 1st down are not a sign of a well-oiled macine.

15
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 10:02am

However, there were one of three things going on with the Packers d last night. Either Thompson has done a poor job on that side of the ball, or they are too injured to be functional, or Capers playcalls like a denegenerate gambler, with 7 whiskys in him, at a blackjack table.

Maybe a little of all three.

20
by big10freak :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 10:44am

Injuries are not an excuse. Pretty much everyone who the team needs on the field was playing last night. The crux is that the guys being paid to make plays are not doing so. Mike Daniels--nothing. Nick Perry--MIA. Davon House--abused. Clay--lots of effort no results.

Those are four veteran guys who are expected to contribute who have not to any significant degree

21
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 11:06am

I was shocked at the lack of pass rush. Detroit's a good passing team, but can't run at all. You should be able to bother Stafford once and a while. Absolutely nothing last night, at home. Hence Capers going ineffectively crazy with the blitzes.

18
by jtr :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 10:34am

CJ Beathard has now taken 16 sacks in 4 games, or 4 sacks per game. If he can step that up just a little bit, he can match the 4.75 sk/gm of David Carr's legendary 76 sack rookie season. Maybe it's a good idea for the expendable third-round rookie to take the beating this season instead of Garoppolo.

22
by billprudden :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 11:39am

I would think takeaway #1 of watching TB all these years is "Get the ball out".

23
by t.d. :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 11:47am

Goff is legit talented, and the Rams have been one of the most entertaining watches all year (saw them play my NFC and AFC teams, and the Thursday night game against SF). That defense is almost holding them back (1st year Wade Phillips magic hasn't really kicked in yet)

Bortles is going to be facing a lot of single coverage with eight-man boxes from bad teams the rest of the year, so garbage-time Bortles could show up a little early from this point forward. We'll see.

25
by James-London :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 12:09pm

Worst thing that could happen to the Jags is that Bortles does just enough to let them talk themselves into an extension. Early garbage based on the performance of the rest of the team is a the most likely way for that to happen.

Phil Simms is a Cretin.

26
by t.d. :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 12:17pm

Totally agree, but neither Marrone nor Coughlin like the guy; neither drafted him or feel any particular attachment. The 'once they got the lead against Pittsburgh he didn't throw another pass for the final two quarters' game plan makes that about as clear as can get (personally I'd have loved them to sign Kaep, much higher upside and he'd help Fournette, but I can't see Coughlin doing it)

29
by theslothook :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 1:00pm

I have to think Goff's improvement effectively ends Jeff Fisher as a head coach in the NFL.

I haven't seen a full game of Goff's yet but I'm curious how much the improvement is him vs being properly schemed(controlling as best you can for the better supporting cast).

30
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 1:07pm

After stealing money from Kroenke for his last few years, anybody who'd hire Fisher now would be making as big a mistake as hiring Ditka would have been, after Hurricane Mike took a multimillion dollar paid vacation in New Orleans.

32
by Duke :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 2:37pm

After stealing money from Kroenke for his last few years

That assumes that Kroenke was paying him to win football games. I think there's more evidence that Fisher's job was to get the team out of St. Louis.

And, y'know, Mission Accomplished.

34
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 3:09pm

Good point. His firing was well timed to the new stadium being closer to the horizon.

31
by Chuckc :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 1:11pm

I'm curious, what's the DYAR on the Rams TD conversion on 3rd and 33?

35
by Vincent Verhei :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 4:23pm

"GABBERT WATCH UPDATE: Gabbert now has -118 passing DYAR this week and -1,449 in his career, still trailing Blaine Gabbert'..."
I think you mean "McCown has..."

And your chart has McCown with something like 43 passing DYAR this week, not -118. Do you mean -118 passing DYAR season-to-date?

Whoops. That disaster of a comment has been fixed. Thanks.

I'm curious, what's the DYAR on the Rams TD conversion on 3rd and 33?

37 passing DYAR for Goff, 29 receiving DYAR for Woods.

38
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 5:47pm

Who gets the other 8 DYAR?

39
by nat :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 6:03pm

I think it's a matter of "Replacement Level" being different. QBs can get dinged for sacks, fumbles, and balls batted down at the line, but receivers cannot. So replacement-level QB play includes more bad plays than replacement-level WR targets.

I used to think that the Yards in DYAR were different sizes for different positions as well. A while back [edit: in Quick Reads week 2] I was assured they were not on a different scale.

42
by Vincent Verhei :: Wed, 11/08/2017 - 5:20am

Who gets the other 8 DYAR?

It doesn't work that way. We don't calculate DYAR for the team and then divvy it up. DYAR is purely an individual stat. You can sum DYAR to find, for example, the total value of Washington's wide receivers. But that's still the sum of individual totals, not a team stat.

To put another way: If Jared Goff gets sacked, his passing DYAR will go down. But nobody on the Rams will lose any DYAR receiving. They are separate measurements.

43
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Wed, 11/08/2017 - 10:34am

You guys seriously just need to go back to expected points added.

44
by Vincent Verhei :: Wed, 11/08/2017 - 5:35pm

We never used Expected Points Added. Even when we did DPAR, it was still Points Above Replacement, so a quarterback's passing DPAR would not necessarily equal his target's receiving DPAR on any given play.

Pro Football Reference does track expected points contributed, at least on a team level. So you can see for yourself that 29 out of 32 teams have negative rushing value.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/#rushing::10

45
by The Ninjalectual :: Thu, 11/09/2017 - 6:49pm

I consider DYAR to be the exact same as DPAR, only scaled differently. That makes it more confusing than DPAR, but one could theoretically be converted to the other with a simple adjustment (DYAR=DPAR x C, with C being some constant)

Do I understand that right?

46
by Vincent Verhei :: Thu, 11/09/2017 - 7:32pm

Correct.

40
by TomC :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 9:51pm

Nitpick: I wouldn't call down 11 with 4:37 to go "garbage time." Depending on how many timeouts you have, that might not even require an onside kick.

41
by theslothook :: Tue, 11/07/2017 - 11:37pm

I think one issue is garbage time means several things. Rightly or wrongly, many teams play a soft zone in that situation, effectively trading yards for points. Should that be considered garbage time?

48
by LionInAZ :: Thu, 11/09/2017 - 10:08pm

Garbage time is defined as whatever someone not playing the game thinks it is.

49
by Jerry :: Fri, 11/10/2017 - 8:40am

I first came across the term as a description of the point in an NBA blowout where both teams would empty their benches. The way NFL teams use their personnel, there's no real equivalent.