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» Week 11 DVOA Ratings

DVOA has finally climbed on board the Wentz Wagon! The Eagles move into the No. 1 spot, but they aren't the only strong, well-balanced team in the NFL this year. New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and the Los Angeles Rams make this one of the best seasons ever for multiple teams over 30% in DVOA, and Minnesota isn't far behind.

09 Jan 2017

Wild-Card Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

It's not at all surprising to see Aaron Rodgers' name at the top of the quarterback tables in Quick Reads. It happened twice already this season, once in 2015, twice in 2014, and no doubt many times more since he took over the starting job in Green Bay in 2008. And of course he has a history of success in the postseason too -- he was the top quarterback in last year's wild-card round as well after a win over Washington, though before that, you would have to go back to the 2010 season to find a week where Rodgers was the highest-ranked quarterback of any playoff round.

Anyway, yes, Aaron Rodgers is a good quarterback who had a good game against a good defense, so we would expect him to rack up a lot of DYAR. What's notable isn't the total of Rodgers' DYAR, it's the distribution. On Green Bay's first five drives, he went 6-of-14 for 54 yards, with four sacks for 30 yards lost. That's a net 24 yards on 18 passing plays. And then he made a bunch of big plays, finishing the first half 5-of-8 for 101 yards with two touchdowns, and no sacks. He was quite good in the second half too: 15-of-18 for 207 yards and two more touchdowns, with one more sack.

At the end of the first quarter, Rodgers had minus-15 DYAR, which was actually just fourth-worst in a weekend when a lot of teams were playing backup quarterbacks (and when Russell Wilson got off to a similar slow start). In the last three quarters, he had 205 DYAR, which obviously blew away the field (Wilson was next best at 65 DYAR).

Was this a regular occurrence for Rodgers? Not really. Among the 34 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks this season, Rodgers ranked fifth in DYAR and sixth in DVOA in the first quarter. After the first quarter, he ranked sixth in DYAR, eighth in DVOA. If anything, he had a tendency to come out of the gates hot and then (very slightly) cool off as the game went along.

Regardless, even after one bad quarter (really, a bad 20-some minutes), we should not have been surprised when Rodgers and the Packers rallied in the latter stages of the game. He has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league all year, especially in the second half of the season -- he leads all quarterbacks in passing DYAR since Week 10. It just wasn't realistic to expect him to go 60 minutes without making a bundle of big plays. The Cowboys can only hope that if he struggles early again this weekend, they will score enough points to hold off the inevitable rally.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Aaron Rodgers GB
26/40
362
4
0
5
187
190
-3
NYG
We specified Rodgers' early performance already, but we should also give his numbers at the very end of the game: on Green Bay's last four non-kneeldown drives of the game (three touchdowns and a field goal), he went 12-of-16 for 196 yards. Ten of those completions resulted in first downs, including two of the touchdowns. For the whole game, he was best throwing up the middle: 13-of-16 for 219 yards and 11 first downs, including three of his touchdowns.
2.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
13/18
197
2
2
1
43
47
-4
MIA
Nobody noticed this, because Miami kept turning the ball over and never threatened to make a comeback, but Roethlisberger was absolutely terrible for most of this game. With about 90 seconds left in the first half, his pass to Darrius Heyward-Bey resulted in a 24-yard DPI. From that point forward, Roethlisberger produced only one first down, going 3-of-8 for 15 yards with a sack and two interceptions. Now, in the first 28:30, he had phenomenal numbers, going 10-of-10 for 182 yards and seven first downs, including two scores. Even there, though, it was Roethlisberger's receivers (and Antonio Brown in particular) doing most of the work. Eighty percent of Roethlisberger's gross passing yards came after the catch (Matthew Stafford was next highest this week at 54 percent), and he didn't complete a single pass that traveled more than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
3.
Brock Osweiler HOU
14/25
168
1
0
0
26
19
7
OAK
This was quite a streaky game. Starting with his first pass of the second quarter, Osweiler had four completions in a row for 44 yards. He followed that with three incompletions in a row; four straight completions for 70 yards; 1-of-5 for 3 yards; and then closing with a 19-yard completion, a 17-yard DPI, and an incompletion. The critical line of the field, for whatever reason (probably random noise), was the Houston 28-yard line. From that line to Oakland's end zone, Osweiler went 11-of-16 for 143 yards, plus a 17-yard DPI. Inside that line, however, he went 3-of-9 for 25 yards, with a fumbled snap.
4.
Russell Wilson SEA
23/30
224
2
0
3
23
23
0
DET
With about 13 minutes to go in the game, Wilson and the Seahawks had a first down at their own 18, leading just 13-6 and badly needing some insurance points. Wilson completed every pass he threw from that point forward, going 11-of-11 for 136 yards and a touchdown. He was tremendous throwing to his left, going 10-of-11 for 120 yards. He does, though, take a massive hit for opponent adjustments, losing more than 50 DYAR for playing the lowly Lions.
5.
Matthew Stafford DET
18/32
205
0
0
3
-9
-12
3
SEA
Stafford never threw a pass in the red zone against Seattle. He had 16 plays outside the Detroit 43 (including, bizarrely, six plays from right at the 44), and went 6-of-13 for 40 yards, plus three sacks that lost a total of 23 yards. Most of his success came up the middle, where he went 8-of-12 for 89 yards. That includes two completions in two passes to the deep middle, for gains of 19 and 23 yards, and the Seahawks continue to defend that area without Earl Thomas.
6.
Eli Manning NYG
23/44
299
1
1
2
-11
-14
4
GB
Feel free to blame Manning (and his receivers) for the Giants' struggles to score against Green Bay. Inside the Packers' 25, he went 1-of-8 for 7 yards with an interception. He spent a good chunk of the day throwing ineffectual passes to his left, going 9-of-16 to that direction for just 59 yards and only one first down.
7.
Matt Moore MIA
29/36
289
1
1
5
-28
-22
-6
PIT
Moore actually produced a lot of big plays in this game, but they were all in his end or the middle of the field. Inside the Pittsburgh 40, he went 7-of-10 for only 45 yards. Meanwhile, he lost 35 yards on four sacks, and also fumbled twice.
8.
Connor Cook OAK
18/45
161
1
3
3
-95
-95
0
HOU
Cook's first pass of the second quarter was a completion to Michael Crabtree for a gain of 14 yards and a first down, his third first down of the game -- and his last until early in the fourth quarter. In between, in more than 30 minutes of football, he went 2-of-15 for 17 yards with two sacks that lost 16 yards. Yes, 1 net yard in 19 dropbacks. He had virtually no luck on deep balls, going 1-of-10 for 20 yards and an interception, with an 11th deep ball resulting in a DPI for 25 yards. He converted only four of his 18 third- and fourth-down plays, going 5-of-16 for 49 yards with the one DPI, one sack, and three interceptions.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Le'Veon Bell PIT
29
167
2
2/2
7
0
38
34
4
MIA
Bell ran for nine first downs against Miami, including five gains of 10 yards or more, while getting hit for no gain or a loss five times. That includes picking up first downs on seven of his 11 carries with 6 yards or less to go for a first down.
2.
Zach Zenner DET
11
34
0
6/6
54
0
26
2
24
SEA
Witness the power of opponent adjustments and small sample sizes. Zenner's 17-yard gain on second-and-10 in the first quarter was his only successful run of the day, and the only time he gained more than 4 yards on the ground. But Seattle's defense has been dominant against the run all season, and so he gets 2 DYAR rushing instead of minus-12. He also only had one first down receiving, a 23-yard gain on second-and-9, but he added four other catches that gained 6 or more yards, including a 14-yard gain on second-and-20.
3.
Christine Michael GB
10
47
0
0/0
0
0
26
26
0
NYG
Michael's longest run against New York gained only 10 yards, but he had three first downs and a median gain of 5 yards, while getting hit for no gain just twice.
4.
Thomas Rawls SEA
27
161
1
1/2
1
0
18
34
-17
DET
Nine first downs on the ground, including gains of 10, 12, 14, 26, and 32 yards, while getting hit for no gain or a loss five times. But this is opponent adjustments in reverse, as Rawls goes from 46 DYAR rushing to 34 due to playing the Lions. It didn't help that his two targets resulted in an incomplete pass on third-and-goal from the 2 and a 1-yard gain on second-and-7.
5.
Ty Montgomery GB
11
27
0
3/4
41
0
16
1
15
NYG
Montgomery's longest run gained only 9 yards and he had just one first down, but he was hit for no gain or a loss only twice. His biggest catch was a 34-yard gain on third-and-10.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Thomas Rawls SEA
27
161
1
1/2
1
0
18
34
-17
DET
2.
Le'Veon Bell PIT
29
167
2
2/2
7
0
38
34
4
MIA
3.
Christine Michael GB
10
47
0
0/0
0
0
26
26
0
NYG
4.
Rashad Jennings NYG
5
29
0
1/1
4
0
5
7
-2
GB
Only five carries, but all gained positive yardage, including gains of 10 and 11.
5.
Zach Zenner DET
11
34
0
6/6
54
0
26
2
24
SEA


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Lamar Miller HOU
31
73
1
0/1
0
0
-53
-47
-6
OAK
Thirty-one carries and only two first downs, and one gain of more than 7 yards (a 19-yarder). He was hit for no gain or a loss seven times.


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Lamar Miller HOU
31
73
1
0/1
0
0
-53
-47
-6
OAK


Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Randall Cobb GB
5
7
116
23.2
3
79
NYG
All of Cobb's catches went for first downs, including touchdowns of 16, 30, and 42 yards.
2.
Davante Adams GB
8
12
125
15.6
1
58
NYG
Only one of Adams' catches failed to produce a first down: a 6-yard gain on second-and-9. Three of his catches gained 20-plus yards.
3.
Andre Holmes OAK
4
5
50
12.5
1
53
HOU
Each of Holmes' catches resulted in a first down. So did the 25-yard DPI he drew to convert a third-and-16.
4.
Kenny Stills MIA
5
5
82
16.4
0
40
PIT
Four of Stills' catches resulted in first downs, including gains of 36 on third-and-13 and 8 on fourth-and-5.
5.
Antonio Brown PIT
5
9
124
24.8
2
35
MIA
Brown's day was similar to that of his quarterback's -- his two first-quarter touchdowns resulted in 112 total yards and 62 DYAR. His other seven targets resulted in three catches for just 12 yards and minus-27 DYAR.


Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Amari Cooper OAK
2
10
10
5.0
0
-52
HOU
Cooper's total includes minus-48 DYAR receiving, minus-4 DYAR rushing for his zero-yard gain on first-and-10.

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 09 Jan 2017

7 comments, Last at 10 Jan 2017, 2:11pm by Dan

Comments

1
by DRohan :: Mon, 01/09/2017 - 6:08pm

Bell 29-167-2 ---> 34 Rush DYAR
Michael 10-47-0 ---> 26 Rush DYAR
I guess DYAR being so close on a third of the volume is explained by Michael only having 2 of 10 carries for no gain. Huh?

3
by Anon Ymous :: Mon, 01/09/2017 - 6:50pm

I presume it's due to opponent adjustments and NYG's sizable advantage in rush defense (-25.3% vs. -3.5%)

4
by erniecohen :: Mon, 01/09/2017 - 9:31pm

It's also a reflection of an adjustment DVOA doesn't take into account. Normally, the more you run succesfully, the more the D should adjust to stop the run. So having a high success rates while running a lot should be rewarded more than if you are running only rarely.

2
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Mon, 01/09/2017 - 6:47pm

Holmes only went in after Crabtree got hurt, didn't he?

5
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Tue, 01/10/2017 - 11:03am

I don't know the Raiders depth chart I presume Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are #1 and #2

Connor Cook probably gets a lot of practice time with Andre Holmes, as well as opponents having studied him less.

6
by RoninX :: Tue, 01/10/2017 - 12:15pm

Rawls is targeted on two short passes, catches 1/2 and gets tagged with -17 receiving DYAR. That seems odd. Shouldn't opponent adjustments be scaled for targets? His one missed reception was certainly a high leverage one and I know DYAR doesn't care that Rawls didn't have a realistic shot to catch that ball. But that seems weird. What am I missing?

7
by Dan :: Tue, 01/10/2017 - 2:11pm

On average RBs have, what, 7 yards per target? Rawls had 1 yard on 2 targets, which is 13 less than that. So maybe 10 yards below replacement, if we were just looking at actual yards. The 3rd & goal play was unusually high leverage, so I guess that gets scaled up in DYAR "yards" and accounts for most of the difference between -10 and -17.