This year's update to the playoff drive stats show that the football gods may have been on Peyton Manning's side this time. Also: Cam Newton and Alex Smith enter the mix, and why we should be comparing Andrew Luck to Dan Marino.

23 Jul 2010

*by Bill Barnwell*

Just like any other receiving statistic, catch rate is dramatically affected by both the scheme a receiver plays in and the quarterback throwing him passes. Even our new plus-minus statistic isn't immune; in the second part of our introduction to plus-minus last year, we noted how the plus-minus of receivers on a given team tends to flock together. That suggests that quarterbacks are the dominant factor in determining the catch rate of most players.

To get a true glimpse into which players are catching passes at a rate above or below expectation, then, we need to add another layer of adjustments to the process. Accounting for pass distance and the yards needed for a first down -- as we do in Football Outsiders Almanac 2010 -- isn't enough; we also need to account for the laundry a player's wearing. In this piece, I'll explain my methodology for doing so, and in Part II of our team analysis (or Part V of the ever-expanding plus-minus trilogy), I'll analyze what it tells us about the past few seasons and the upcoming 2010 campaign.

(Right about now, you might be asking why this research wasn't included in the numbers you've seen/will see in *Football Outsiders Almanac 2010*; the answer is that, unfortunately, ideas and research times don't always coincide with book schedules. The idea for how to perform the adjustments, as simple as it is, didn't actually come to me until the book was all but done.)

The process of getting the team-adjusted figures is actually reasonably simple. With plus-minus calculated for each player already, it's a few short steps:

1. Divide the player's plus-minus by his target total to get a per-play figure

2. Divide the combined plus-minus of every other player on the team by their target total to get a team per-play figure

3. Find the difference between the two figures

4. Multiply the difference by the player's target total to get a re-constituted, team-adjusted plus-minus

As an example, let's use a player whose figure is heavily affected by context: the Colts' Austin Collie.

After stripping out plays defined as uncatchable, our database figures that Collie caught 60 of the 86 targets thrown to him last year, which yields a catch rate of just under 70 percent. Plus-minus suggests that he caught 3.4 more passes than an average receiver would, given the raw distance of his routes as well as the relative down and distance they came on. Divide that on a per-target basis, and Collie was just about 0.04 catches above average each time he was thrown the ball.

Of course, Collie doesn't play in an average offense; he plays for the Colts, and he has Peyton Manning throwing him the ball. There were 465 qualifying targets thrown to the remainder of the Colts' players. On those plays, the rest of the team accrued 33.7 catches above expectation. On a per-play basis, that's 0.07 catches above average; because that's higher than Collie's average, it means that Collie was worse than his teammates.

Subtract the difference and multiply it by Collie's 86 targets and you'll find that the tune of his numbers has changed. While Collie was catching passes at an above-average rate according to both catch rate and plus-minus, adjusting the figure for his team context produces a plus-minus figure of -2.8, a figure below what his Colts teammates were producing.

Below, we've provided a table with these statistics for every Colts player in 2009 (except for Hank Baskett, whose numbers are a little more complicated because he played for two teams). As you might expect, the overall success of the offense drags each individual receiver's plus-minus down.

Plus-Minus For The Indianapolis Colts, 2009 |
|||||||||||

Year | Name | Pos | Targets | Recepts | Raw +/- | Team Targets | Team +/- | Team +/-per | +/- per | Dif. | Team-Adj. +/- |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

2009 | Reggie Wayne | WR | 134 | 100 | 16.9 | 417 | 20.3 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 10.4 |

2009 | Dallas Clark | TE | 129 | 100 | 12.9 | 422 | 24.2 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 5.5 |

2009 | Joseph Addai | RB | 60 | 51 | 5.1 | 491 | 32.1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 1.1 |

2009 | Donald Brown | RB | 13 | 11 | 1.4 | 538 | 35.8 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.5 |

2009 | Tom Santi | TE | 11 | 8 | 1.1 | 540 | 36.0 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.4 |

2009 | Colin Cloherty | TE | 1 | 1 | 0.2 | 550 | 37.0 | 0.07 | 0.21 | 0.14 | 0.1 |

2009 | Mike Hart | RB | 6 | 5 | 0.4 | 545 | 36.7 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.0 |

2009 | Chad Simpson | RB | 4 | 3 | -0.2 | 547 | 37.4 | 0.07 | -0.06 | -0.13 | -0.5 |

2009 | Sam Giguere | WR | 2 | 0 | -0.9 | 549 | 38.1 | 0.07 | -0.45 | -0.52 | -1.0 |

2009 | Gijon Robinson | TE | 13 | 9 | -0.5 | 538 | 37.7 | 0.07 | -0.04 | -0.11 | -1.4 |

2009 | Austin Collie | WR | 86 | 60 | 3.4 | 465 | 33.7 | 0.07 | 0.04 | -0.03 | -2.8 |

2009 | Jacob Tamme | TE | 9 | 3 | -2.7 | 542 | 39.9 | 0.07 | -0.30 | -0.38 | -3.4 |

2009 | Pierre Garcon | WR | 83 | 47 | 0.2 | 468 | 37.0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | -0.08 | -6.4 |

Pierre Garcon is another excellent example of how context can make a player with below-average hands look good. Garcon's plus-minus was about league-average relative to the distance and nature of his routes, but once you factor in the context of his offense, he was actually pretty mediocre at catching the ball in 2009. That blends well with DVOA, which saw Reggie Wayne and Collie well ahead of Garcon a year ago.

The change in Wayne's figures is also very interesting. Wayne led the league in raw plus-minus in 2009, but some of that is thanks to a high target total and the presence of Peyton Manning. He drops to the middle of the top ten in scaled plus-minus, and because a lot of the passes that weren't thrown to him were also completed, his team-adjusted plus-minus was only the league's sixth-best. (We'll cover the 2009 leaders in Part II of this piece.)

Team-adjusted plus-minus tells a distinct story for the 2009 Colts -- Wayne and Dallas Clark caught a lot of passes at a well-above-average level, and everyone else was average or worse -- but the team's statistical signature isn't always so similar. In 2008, for example, Wayne's raw numbers declined, and his plus-minus figures were no different. He had a raw plus-minus of 10.4 on 124 targets; adjust that for the team rate, though, and he was only at 2.1. Anthony Gonzalez led the team, with a team-adjusted plus-minus of 4.4 catches above average on 77 targets.

In Wayne's dominant 2007 season, well, he was a one-man wrecking crew. His 18.3 raw plus-minus was met with mostly mediocre performances by the rest of the offense, producing a team-adjusted plus-minus of 16.7 that led the league. It's the second-best figure of the four-year stretch we have plus-minus available for, having been narrowly beaten out (16.74 catches above average to Wayne's 16.72) by a receiver in 2009. One of the main reasons why Wayne's figure is so high is because the only other Colts receiver with more than 50 qualifying targets that year was Dallas Clark, who had a raw plus-minus of -5.6 on 94 targets. After adjusting that for the team context, Clark was at a very disappointing figure of -9.5 catches, the worst figure in the league that year.

2006, of course, was the last gasp of Wayne and Marvin Harrison as anything close to equals. It's borne out in their plus-minus figures. After adjusting their figures for the Colts offense, Wayne was at 7.9 catches above expectation on 128 targets, while Harrison was at 8.2. (Clark, in part of a two-year stretch with a strangely low raw catch rate, was at a dismal -8.7 catches on just 55 targets.)

In Part II, we'll expand the focus to the rest of the league, breaking down the most bizarre out-of-context performances from the past four seasons while providing the numbers on who did the best job, relative to their teammates, of catching passes.

As a teaser, here's a quick contest. The player with the biggest per-play difference between his personal plus-minus and the plus-minus of the rest of his teammates in a given season over the past four years is a running back. I'll give everyone a lone guess at who that back is; the first person to guess correctly gets a free PDF of *FOA 2010*.

162 comments, Last at 26 Jul 2010, 11:25pm by Nathan

## Comments

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

jbecks6779:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:35pmWho is Kevin Faulk?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Walsh (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:38pm2006 LaDanian Tomlinson

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Walsh (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:42pmOh I think I know who it really is, dammit.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Dan V (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:39pmLdT

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Exy (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:39pmErm... Ray Rice?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

thermhere (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:40pmWho is Brian Westbrook?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

puffbronfman:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:41pmDarren McFadden?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Karl Cuba:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:44pmMy guess is Brian Westbrook

This is a very interesting piece of research that seems to come very close to the holy grail of viewing individual performance independently of the team. As far as I can tell, teh only factor that is left out is how much of a spotlight a defense puts on a particular receiver, which is probably impossible to realise. Great stuff. (I still hate the name +/- though, surely there must be something more descriptive that gives nubes a better idea of what the stat represents.)

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Karl Cuba:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:47pmAaaarrgghh! 7 new posts arrived since I started writing mine, and someone has stolen my guess, can I change to Frank Gore?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

JP (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:46pmI'm gonna guess MJD?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

JP (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:17pmI guess it must be 2006 MJD then.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Joey (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:47pmReggie Bush?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Salur (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:48pmIf the plan is to use team adjusted plus-minus to compare different wide receivers across the league (I don't have the book, so I don't know), doesn't that assume each team has the same type of receivers? That is, if one team had a wide receiver corps filled with guys who have great hands, and another team was filled with speedy guys that dropped every pass, all the players are going to be around 0 plus-minus. But that doesn't mean they all have the same catching ability.

Put another way, this doesn't tell us that Pierre Garcon had below average hands. It tells us that (last season, at least), Pierre Garcon had below average hands for a Colts receiver. It doesn't necessarily tell us how he stands in relation to the rest of the league.

I'm not trying to diminish the point of the article; it seems pretty obvious that having Peyton Manning as a QB is going to help a WR without reflecting his true skill, and I could well be missing something. But using this to compare across teams could be problematic if the teams are constructed differently.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Karl Cuba:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:14pmThe base +/- figure would be guilty of what you are saying, this helps to take the qb/system out of the equation, making comparisons more valid (I think.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Scott C:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:01pmIMO I'm not sure it can be used to compare recievers across teams. It helps compare players within teams though -- quite a bit!

Imagine a team with 5 HOF recievers: Jerry Rice x 5.

Their stats might all be different, since JR1 and JR2 will be on the outside, JR3 in the slot, etc, but after these adjustments ideally they all end up at 0.0 team-adjusted +/-.

Now, you have another team, full of Heyward-Bey's. This team similarly will have a team-adjusted 0.0 for its WR's.

There is no way you could compare the two sets of team-adjusted numbers to each other and conclude that the players are equally skilled.

At least, that is what the math looks like to me.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Karl Cuba:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 4:21pmBut wouldn't the all-Rice team have a very high +/- to begin with. The team adjustments would hover around 0.0 (with some statistical noise) but the +/- would still be high. That's what I think is the case if +/- is what I think it is.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Scott C:: Sun, 07/25/2010 - 2:12amMaybe. But what if the team of JR's had Jamarcus Russel throwing to them and the team of HB's had Joe Montana?

I guess what I'm saying, is Its unclear to me how this disentangles QB from WR play. The average +/- of the players on the team is affected by BOTH the QB and the skill of the average receiver on the team.

How that affects one player is even affected by how good the QB is on different kinds of throws and the distribution of types of throws to said player.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Nathan:: Sun, 07/25/2010 - 3:08amDumping the ball to the HB in the flats is a hell of a lot easier than throwing a deep out. For most QBs at least (I'm looking at you, Henne). The deep out is going to be on a rope, maybe behind or in front of the WR if the QB isn't so good. A check down is a check down.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

mm (not verified):: Sun, 07/25/2010 - 9:12pmBut the numbers are given relative to league-average QB's. So if you're QB is average at throwing the ball to a HB in the flats but slightly better than average at the deep out, then your RBs will be undervalued by this measure, and your deep receiver will be overvalued.

You're dealing with such small sample sizes that it would make any results very questionable, but ideally you'd take every QB and find his unique rate for each type of pass, and then use that rate when calculating your plus-minus figure for each player on the team. This would then be used to compare teammates.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Nathan:: Mon, 07/26/2010 - 11:24pmFair enough. Yet another example that I'm here for the discussion, not the stats. I always forget they're so adjusted.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

mgrex03 (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:50pmChris Johnson

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

mgrex03 (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:55pm2009 Chris Johnson

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Never4getBrent:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:51pmChester Taylor

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Brad Catlin (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:52pmMatt Forte

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Bill Barnwell:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:53pmHey -- not saying if any of the above answers are right or wrong, but:

a) You'll need to give a player and a season in question.

b) The only qualifying guess, 2006 LT, is wrong.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

McC (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:53pmSteven Jackson, come on down?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

McC (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:55pm2008 Steven Jackson, that is...

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

buzz:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:56pm2006 Deangelo Williams

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

buzz:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:00pmAs for the article I think it highlights what a lot of people are missing about the colts for this season and are similar (although way more detailed) to the findings i came through going through play by play data. And that is that you can't forget about Anthony Gonzalez. Yes Collie and Garcon played well but if you take into consideration their situation they weren't all world beaters where as Gonzo was actually above average last year and still has an elite 1st round pedigree. Whether he is 100% healthy is another question and I am sure that will play a big factor in the whole process but to completely dismiss him like a lot of people have done may be a mistake.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

thermhere (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:57pmBrian Westbrook 2007

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

JasonG (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:57pmMatt Forte

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

JasonG (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:58pm2008 Matt Forte

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Ben14 (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:57pmSteven Jackson

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Ben14 (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 1:59pm2006

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

TheHerminator:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:07pmA 73% catch rate on the team that led the league in drops? I'm going to go with 2009 Jamaal Charles.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Karl Cuba:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:11pmFrank Gore 2007, the rest of the niners' receivers were garbage.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Bill Barnwell:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:16pmI will say this much: No one has come even close yet. I wouldn't run a trivia contest where the answer was something as obvious as Chris Johnson or LaDainian Tomlinson.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Bill Barnwell:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:20pmAnd for reference, I'll even give spots 2-5:

- 2: Brian Leonard, Bengals, 2009: +.11 plus-minus per pass vs. -.05 for rest of team

- 3: Ronnie Brown, Dolphins, 2006: +.10 plus-minus per pass vs. -.05 for rest of team

- 4: Chester Taylor, Vikings, 2008: +.11 plus-minus per pass vs. -.03 for rest of team

- 5: Jamal Lewis, Browns, 2007: +.08 plus-minus per pass vs. -.06 for rest of team

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Dan:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:02pmShouldn't that be 2007 for Ronnie Brown?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

T.A:: Sun, 07/25/2010 - 8:06pmwait I thought you need to have at least 50 targets to qualify?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Jovins:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:22pmDeAngelo Williams in 2006?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

dcaslin:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:24pmRay Rice, Ravens 2009

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

watyousay (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:26pm2007 Kenton Keith

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Jimmy:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:28pmThe original Adrian Peterson 2007 for the Bears.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Walsh (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:28pmThink I finally figured it out, too bad I already guessed.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

JP (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:29pmMe too :(

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

jones007ben:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:33pmi wonder if it could be.... Buckhalter '08

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

DZ (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:34pmGreat work. It's been hard to reign in the enthusiasm of Colts nation about Garcon and Collie because they had good playoff games, but both had critical mistakes in the Super Bowl that are largely forgotten.

Anthony Gonzalez, if healthy, is just a flat better player than either one.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Bobman:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 5:02pmThinking the same BBS-related thing.....

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

joel.schopp:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:34pm2008 Matt Forte caught a huge % of passes and had terrible receivers on his team.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

The Ninjalectual:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:42pm2009 Ronnie Brown?

"Just look at that pumpkin."

-John Madden, looking at the moon.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Tim G (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:42pm2009 Tomlinson

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

D:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:46pmChester Taylor in 2008?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

D:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 4:00pmGuess I should have checked comment #32 first. Damn it.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

ChicagoRaider:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:50pmMichael Bush, 2009 Oakland Raiders.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Deelron:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:53pmFrank Gore, 2006.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Jon:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:56pmDerrick Ward 2008

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

pudson (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 2:59pm'09 Fred Jackson

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

BigDerf:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:05pmIm going with 2009 Lex Hilliard. 100% catch rate. Closest player on Miami was Ronnie Browns 70% rate in the same amount of passes for less yards. I compared catch rates on teams and saw Lex's 30% difference and also saw that Lex was also about as good on a per play distance basis as Brian Leonard.

Hope I didn't blow my guess on a guy who doesn't qualify because of lack of targets.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Walsh (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:37pmThat would be my guess after Bill's statement if I hadn't blown my load on 06 LdT

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

BigDerf:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:42pmDont feel bad. I woulda blown my load on LDT or 08 Forte if I had gotten to the article sooner.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Bobman:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 5:04pmIck. What does Mister Tomlinson have to say about you, er... soiling him in that manner?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Walsh (not verified):: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 12:59pmHe said, "sorry for not being the correct answer."

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Martin Allard (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:09pmJulius Jones 2007

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

fek9wnr (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:11pmPatrick Cobbs?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

fek9wnr (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:13pm(2008 Patrick Cobbs, if year is needed)

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

DZ (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:12pmJoe Addai 2007

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Scott C:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:13pmMJD, 2008 ? Not sure how bad the rest of the team was overall, but it wasn't pretty.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Scott C:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:16pmAw crap ... I think I should have looked at the question a little bit differently.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Andrew Potter:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:17pm2007 Brandon Jacobs (He didn't say it was a positive difference.)

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Shattenjager:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:49pmI didn't want to submit a guess since I already bought the book, but that's what I would have guessed.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

nycubd:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:26pmPatrick Cobbs, 2008 Dolphins.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

spenczar:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:28pmRock Cartwright, 2009 Redskins?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Ninja Warrior (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:30pmKenneth Darby, 2008 Rams.

90% catch rate at 9.6 yards/rec on a team with -26.1% DVOA passing.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Dan:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:36pmTatum Bell, 2006, Broncos.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

speedegg:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:37pmWho is Willie Parker, 2007 season....damn replies are coming fast and furious

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

learning to fly (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:46pm2008 Michael Robinson

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

TXNiner:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:47pmKevin Jones, 2006 Detroit

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Boylan2 (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:50pm2006 Tiki Barber. He was reliable with a likely high catch rate, while surrounded by a team of WRs that was always overthrown by a still-erratic Eli. Right?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Joey (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:56pm2006 Brian Westbrook

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Jimmy:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 3:59pmGreat research Bill.

If this had been around 15 years earlier it might have been in time to stop Dave Wanstedt from shelling out massive money to get Michael Timpson off the Bledsoe QBed Patriots. Then again Dave the Dunce would probably have ignored it.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

fek9wnr (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 4:18pmNow THAT's a grudge! Impressive work, sir.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Staubach12:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 4:01pmFrank Gore 2008

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Staubach12:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 4:25pmOops! Looks like I blew my wad on someone who was already picked...

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

billsfan:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 4:26pm2008 Kevin Faulk

(I also like the Eagles)P.S. I still hate the name +/- for this stat.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Zieg (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 4:25pmCadillac Williams 2009.

Mediocre performance on a miserable team == success?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

sfckoski:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 4:46pm2008 - Brandon Jackson

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

zenbitz (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 4:58pm2009 Gary Russell, Oakland

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Bill Barnwell:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 4:59pmThere IS a 30-target minimum, so I'm going to let BigDerf pick again. No one has guessed correctly yet.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

zenbitz (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 5:05pmI wondered if there might be a minimum targets for this... can you tell me what Gary Russell's numbers were so I can see if my estimation is meaningful?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Shyam Sundararaman (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 5:08pm2008 Fred Jackson

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

abernethyj:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 5:13pmWillis McGahee, 2007.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

sfckoski:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 5:14pm2007 - All Day

backup guess

2008 - Jamaal Charles

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Joe Kocour (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 5:15pm07 Earnest Graham?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Mr. Housebroken:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 5:21pm2009 Kevin Smith Detroit

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

dmb:: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 10:30amThat would've been my first guess. My next would've been Jamal Lewis (2007), but then I saw that season at #5 on the list Bill posted...

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Staubach12:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 5:23pmSince my first choice was already picked by someone else, can I pick Leon Washington 2008?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Sideshow Bob (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 5:26pmHow about the 2007 vintage of Leonard Weaver (SEA)?

## FINAL ANSWER

zenbitz (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 5:32pmMarion Barber, 2008 (Dallas)

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

billsfan:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 5:36pmoooh, are we all forgetting some of the awful receiving on the Raiders lately?

(I also like the Eagles)## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

nycubd:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 5:41pmMy first guess was also picked by someone else 10 minutes prior, so I'm going to go again with some Justin Fargas, 2007.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

ChicagoRaider:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 5:44pmDespite the fact that I made a guess, whatever Raiderjoe comes up with wins, is my alternative bet.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Dan in DC (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 6:03pmJamal Charles, 2009.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

D:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 6:24pmI can't believe I wasted my guess on someone Bill had already said was wrong because I think found the answer and it was not someone I was expecting.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Nathan:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 6:37pmmewelde moore, 2006 vikings

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Mike H (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 8:06pmLeonard Weaver, 2007 SEA

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Hari-Kiri Bengals Fan (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 8:20pmDammit, I was going to guess 2007 Fargas. But I'll say Cedric Benson, 2008.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Rhombus (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 8:24pmFrank Gore, 2007

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Rhombus (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 8:25pmwhoops just saw someone already guessed that.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Elroy (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 8:52pm08 leron mcclain

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Nathan:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 8:54pmdidn't have 30 receptions to qualify

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

dedkrikit:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 8:58pmWhite 2007

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

MatMan:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 9:14pmRay Finkle, 1984. Soccer style kicker graduated from Cauler high June 1976, Stetson University honors graduate class of 1980, holds 2 NCAA division 1 records one for most points in a season, one for distance, former nickname "The Mule," The first and oly pro athlete to come out of Cauler County and one hell of a model American.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Jason:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 10:41pmAre you one of those

Hard Copyguys?If I hit a grand slam on this hole-in-one the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

prophetik (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 9:20pm2009, marshawn lynch.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

BigDerf:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 9:51pmWith my reguess I'm taking Lamont Jordan of the 07 Raiders. Similar numbers to Leonard and an absolutely horrible Oakland offense run by Culpepper Russel ad Josh McCown.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

buzz:: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 10:22amThat was my second guess - that team was pretty attrocious outside of Jordan - and even jordan was disapointing as I remember wasting a fantasy pick on him.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Or (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 9:58pm2008 Justin Fargas

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Joseph:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 10:07pm2006 Edge James, ARZ

## THE ANSWER

hanjna:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 10:07pmJERIOUS NORWOOD, 2007. already bought FOA 2010 and KUBIAK, but wouldnt mind reimbursement on the previous!!

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Venger:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 10:14pm2008 Matt Forte.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Sander:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 10:28pm1996 Mike Alstott.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Jason:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 10:38pm2006 Kevin Jones, Detroit Lions, Mike Martz Offense, FTW!

If I hit a grand slam on this hole-in-one the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Jason:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 10:39pmCrap. Didn't see that someone had already guessed him.

If I hit a grand slam on this hole-in-one the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Yaxley:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 10:45pm2008 Mewelde Moore?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Packfan6:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 10:47pm06 Ahman Green?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

El Nino Meon (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 10:48pm2007 Ryan Grant

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Will S:: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 11:06pm2009 Ray Rice. Or was David Tyree catching all those passes?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

RascalTutor (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 11:15pmFelix Jones 2008

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Hilario (not verified):: Fri, 07/23/2010 - 11:27pm2009 Jerome Harrison

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Anonymous Coward (not verified):: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 1:38amJustin Griffith 2006 falcons

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Bill Barnwell:: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 1:48amNo one has got it yet. I'll give one more big hint: One person actually named a different running back from the team and season of the player in question.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

John (not verified):: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 5:08am2009- Ricky Williams

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Subrata Sircar:: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 6:23am2009 Rashard Mendenhall.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

weffy:: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 6:55amRock Cartwright 2009

my bad - already picked

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

ukRaider (not verified):: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 8:03amWarrick Dunn 2007 (ATL)

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

dmb:: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 10:22amThomas Jones, 2008, NYJ

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Dales:: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 11:43am2009 Sproles?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

RascalTutor (not verified):: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 11:55am2008 Marion Barber

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Nathan:: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 12:21pmi already used up my guess but he said unexpected... so pick a back that isn't really really well known for being a great receiver on a team with shitty hands at receiver.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Scott C:: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 12:59pmOr the opposite, a RB -- with bad hands and poor open field ability on a team with a great passing game.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

silkydiamonds (not verified):: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 1:37pm2006 Shaun Alexander

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

silkydiamonds (not verified):: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 1:49pmThat should read 2005 Shaun Alexander

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Dales:: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 2:01pmSeeing he said the last four years, you might want to rethink going with the 2005 version :-)

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Zieg (not verified):: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 2:51pm2006 Michael Pittman

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Peregrine:: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 3:07pmNoah Herron, 2006 Green Bay Packers

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Bill Barnwell:: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 3:22pmWE HAVE A WINNER!

Noah Herron caught 93 percent of the qualifying passes thrown to him, 28 out of 30. That's a 93 percent catch rate, and a +/- of 4.58 on 30 targets. No other Packers receiver -- not even players with one target -- that year had a positive plus-minus; Brett Favre completed 56 percent of his passes.

I'm amazed that anyone got it. Peregrine, shoot me an e-mail at bill - at - footballoutsiders.com to arrange your prize.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Charles (not verified):: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 3:40pmShe wins the challenge on Work of Art AND the +/- contest. Peregrine is having a good week.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

zenbitz (not verified):: Mon, 07/26/2010 - 12:01pm93%?? I was going by catch rate... which for Herron in '06 was 77%. Well, at least I am glad to know it wasn't actually guessable from stats on this site!

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Shattenjager:: Mon, 07/26/2010 - 4:25pmI believe the catch rate at which you were looking includes all passes while the catch rate Bill is quoting removes "thrown behind" and "overthrown" passes that are not considered "catchable."

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Nathan:: Mon, 07/26/2010 - 11:25pmtip of the hat to you. never even heard of this guy.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

alltogethernow (not verified):: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 3:09pmvernand morency 2007 green bay packers

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

kps43:: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 3:24pmDarren Sproles 2008?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Dean:: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 3:38pmDid anybody want to talk about the article now?

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Nathan:: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 11:33pmeh, not really... is it preseason yet?

## Minus/Minus?

Andrew Potter:: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 4:52pmI'm just as interested in the Loser League edition. Who is the WORST relative to his teammates, say minimum 30 targets?

## Re: Minus/Minus?

Yaguar:: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 10:21pmMy first thought was Aaron Moorehead 2007, who just misses the minimum. 8/22 for 65 yards in the Colts offense.

36% catch rate, when the team averaged 65%.

2.9 yards per attempt, when the team averaged 7.8.

-44.8% DVOA to the team's +40.6%.

## Re: Minus/Minus?

Andrew Potter:: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 11:31pmThat would be a good shout if not for the lack of targets. It's not even like he has the Jim Sorgi excuse - at most two of Sorgi's passes that season were intended for Moorehead. I wonder how many the charters deemed catchable though - he might have been listed as the target on a lot of throwaways.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

T.A:: Sun, 07/25/2010 - 7:51pm2009 Darren Sproles

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

T.A:: Sun, 07/25/2010 - 8:09pmBefore I posted this I thought the player needed to have at least 50 targets to qualify. If that not so then the running back must be 2006 Darren Sproles.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

JIPanick:: Sun, 07/25/2010 - 10:12pmSee post 143.

## Re: Adjusting Plus-Minus For Team, Part I

Zatchlas (not verified):: Mon, 07/26/2010 - 8:14amDominic Rhodes 2006