Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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» Film Room: Sen'Derrick Marks

The Jaguars' defensive tackle is a bit of a late bloomer, but he has become one of the bright spots in a dim season in Jacksonville.

03 Feb 2005

The Second Annual Super Bowl Prop Bet Extravaganza

by Al Bogdan, Ian Dembsky, and Vivek Ramgopal

Al: Welcome to the Second Annual Super Bowl Prop Bet Extravaganza. The Super Bowl's greatest contribution to society may be encouraging gambling on ridiculous events. Where else can you place a wager on how many yards a third-string running back will rush for in a game. To do our part in Super Bowl Preview Week here at Football Outsiders, we're going to place "bets" on every single ridiculous line that's put out for Super Bowl Sunday. All of the lines, with the exception of the cross sport props at the end of the column, come from Sportingbetusa.com.

We did this for Scramble for the Ball last year and so this year we're welcoming back original Scramble co-writer Ian Dembsky. Ian and I have been doing this for a few years now, we even used this as a Super Bowl pool a few years ago. One of you guys want to explain how this all works?

Ian: Man, do I love Super Bowl Proposition Bets. One of these days when I have more money to burn, I'm going to Vegas and laying $10 on every prop bet there is. Then I'm going nuts after every single play because I probably just won or lost another bet. I'll have torn up so many losing bets, they'll have to dig me out from under the pile of ripped papers.

Let's explain how this thing works (if you're a veteran gambler, you might want to skip to the bets). There are two kinds of bets -- Those with two possibilities, and those with many possibilities. All of the bets with two possibilities look something like this:

Is {something} likely to happen?

__ {choice 1} (-105)
__ {choice 2} (+130)

What's going on there? Well, the {something} is what we're betting on, and the two outcomes are {choice 1} and {choice 2}. If we were to select Choice 1, we'd be betting $105 with a chance to win $100 (hence the "-105"). If we were to select Choice 2, we'd be betting $100 with a chance to win $130 (hence the "+130"). And of course, if we get a bet right, we also get back your wager. So if we gave a casino $105, they'd give us back $205 if we got it right.

The other kind of bets are those with many possiblities. For all of these style bets, we're wagering $100, and the return is based on the ratio indicated. If we think Corey Dillon will score the first touchdown at 6-1, and we're right, we'll win $600.

That being said, on to the ridiculous betting. Why are we doing this? Because we're bored at work, and we're here to entertain you by showing how horrible we are at predicting all these things. Onto the picks!

Vivek: I hope I pull in a few thousand on these bets, because odds are I won't have a job after spending hours figuring out whether or not Troy Brown will run a pick back for a score with two minutes left in the first quarter.

Seriously though, out of the three of us, I think I'm the one who is giving the Eagles the best shot at winning. The Eagles should cover the 6.5 point spread, but will just come up short.

Al: Our readers should feel free to put in their picks in the comments below. Don't feel the need to make picks on every one of these lines or you'll probably break the website. That would be ridiculous. We'll post the results next week.

Game Props

Coin Toss

Heads +100
Tails -110

Ian: I get better odds betting on heads? That makes a lot of sense. I guess people are jumping all over tails. Give me heads +100.

Al: I'm a heads man myself, so I can't turn down the even money odds here.

Vivek: Do we know what the ceremonial coin will be? I need that info before making my educated decision, but I'll run with the crowd and take heads.

Team to Win the Coin Toss

Patriots -105
Eagles -105

Ian: The Eagles are gonna win the coin toss. How do I know? Because I just know.

Al: The genius of Belichick figures out the mystery of the coin toss. Patriots all the way.

Vivek: I hear that Belichick just signed Zeke Mowatt to go out and take the coin toss. Troy Brown at corner. Linebackers at fullback. It could be a smart play throwing out a tight end from the late 80s to win the coin toss. Pats here.

Will Either Team Score 3 Straight Times Without the Other Team Scoring? (Conversions Excluded)

Yes -150
No +120

Ian: The Patriots might score 5 straight times without the Eagles scoring. This game could turn into a blowout quickly. Yes.

Al: I don't think this will be that big of a blowout. I like New England, but the Philly defense is pretty good. I'll go no.

Vivek: Where's the love for the city of Brotherly Love, Ian? I doubt there will be more than two straight scores by a team. No.

Will Either Team Score in the First 6 1/2 Minutes of the Game

Yes -130
No +100

Ian: I'm gonna say no. McNabb usually overthrows his receivers early in games, and I think the Patriots are more likely to attack the Eagles with short passes than long ones. I see some early punts.

Al: I'll say yes. New England will win the toss, march down the field and put some early points on the board.

Vivek: Donovan will have his Chunky Soup that day and score on the first drive. Yes.

Will Either Team Score in the Last 2 Minutes of the First Half

Yes -240
No +200

Ian: Have you seen these quarterbacks run the 2-minute drill this season? Both are phenomenal at it. Not to mention the best two kickers in the league will be in this game. I'm definitely betting on yes here.

Al: I'll take the odds and say no. I can see the Patriots up by ten points at the end of the half and running the ball into the line three times to hold onto their lead.

Vivek: Adam Vinitieri or David Akers lining up for a long field goal as time winds down in the first half? Sounds like a safe bet to me.

Will Either Team Score in the Last 3 & 1/2 Minutes of the Game

Yes -140
No +110

Ian: No; I think that by this point the Patriots will be running out the clock, and Belicheck doesn't like to rub it in when he's winning and score meaningless points.

Al: What about a late Philly score while New England has the lead? The Panthers marched down the field in last year's game when the Patriots had the lead. I could see the Eagles putting some points on the board late. Let's not forget that the Patriots have finished their last two Super Bowl wins with game winning field goals. Yes.

Vivek: I'm thinking with Al. I see a late touchdown to keep the Eagles within reach. Yes.

Will There Be a Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown

Yes +150
No -185

Ian: This is always a tough one to predict. I'd rather take a chance at +150 than -185, so I'll say yes here. I can't come up with a better reason than that.

Al: No. The Pats should force some turnovers, but unless there's a short pass, sideline interception I think New England will be happy to get the turnover and not take any unnecessary risks moving the ball down the field. Tom Brady has only thrown one INT in his two Super Bowl appearances, so I don't like the Eagles' chances of taking one to the house.

Vivek: Five of the last ten Super Bowls have had a special teams or defensive touchdown, so I'll play for the money here and takeYes.

Team to Score First

Patriots -165
Eagles +145

Ian: I want to say the Patriots, since they almost always score first, and like I said earlier, Donovan struggles with pass accuracy early in games. But there's a $120 difference here. Ah screw it, I'm taking the Patriots on this one.

Al: I might as well be consistent with my earlier statements and say the Pats score first early in the game.

Vivek: According to Matt Hasselbeck, the Patriots are going to take the ball and they're going to score.

Team to Score Last

Patriots -130
Eagles +110

Ian: I'll take the Eagles and the +110, since at that point I think they'll be playing catch-up, and the Patriots will be playing run-out-the-clock.

Al: I agree. I can see this game ending yet again with a late Vinatieri field goal, but I'll take the odds and go with Philly.

Vivek: Like I said before, the Eagles will score last to cover the spread, but that's it.

Team to Score Last in 1st Half

Patriots -140
Eagles +110

Ian: I think the Eagles will be down by a bunch, but will score a field goal before the half that the Pats will be happy to let them have. Gimme Philly here.

Al: I'll take New England even though I'm laying more than I can gain here. I expect the Patriots to take a nice lead going into the second half, so if they're going to do that, they're likely to be the last team to score.

Vivek: Eagles from a money perspective.

First Score of the Game Will Be

TD -155
Any Other Score +135

Ian: The field goal kickers and defenses are so good, I'm surprised that the odds are the way they're listed here. I'm going with "Any Other Score".

Al: I'm shocked at these odds as well. I'd think that these numbers would be reversed. I'm going with Any Other Score as well

Vivek: It's unanimous. Any other score.

First TD of the Game Will Be

Passing -220
Any other TD +180

Ian: Corey Dillon isn't really known for his breakaway speed, and Brian Westbrook is much more likely to score catching the ball than running with it. I'll lay the 220 and go with a passing touchdown.

Al: I'll take Any Other TD again. Dorsey Levens has done well around the goal line for Philly, and both Corey Dillon and Tom Brady have done well rushing for first downs and touch downs in short yardage situations. Plus, I'll hedge my bets a little here just in case the first TD is a defensive touchdown.

Vivek: I know Freddy Mitchell's hands are blessed, but I see a rushing TD coming first. Any other score.

Last Score of the 1st Half Will Be

TD +100
Any Other Score -130

Ian: I'm standing by my idea that Philly will tack on a meaningless field goal before the half in an effort help them feel better about themselves, despite still being down a bunch. I'll take "Any Other Score."

Al: I'll take the odds and go with a TD which I expect will be from New England.

Vivek: Any other score as Akers or Vinatieri ends the first half with a field goal.

Last Score of the Game Will Be

TD -190
Any Other Score +160

Ian: On the off chance the game is close, a field goal will most likely end it. I'll go with "Any Other Score" and +160.

Al: These odds seem like they should be reversed again. History is on the side of Any Other Score.

Vivek: I'm going against and Ian here and expecting this to be an Eagles' touchdown with under three minutes left. Unless Phily recovers an onside kick, that should be the game.

First Turnover of the Game Will Be

INT -160
Fumble +130

Ian: How to predict fumbles? Well, given how much pressure the Patriots are likely to bring on Donovan, and how fast Jevon Kearse can get around the end, I'll go with fumble.

Al: I agree. Corey Dillon has fumbled five times this year. Donovan McNabb has dropped the ball eight times, Brady seven. I'll go with the odds again and say fumble.

Vivek: Great, now I have Rob Schneider's voice from Unnecessary Roughness in my head. Fumble.

Total TDs Scored in the Game

Over 5.5 +130
Under 5.5 -160

Ian: 5.5 is a lot of touchdowns. But since I'm predicting a blowout by the Patriots, I'll say over and take the +130.

Al: I say four -- three by New England and one by Philly. I'll take the under.

Vivek: My final score will be high courtesy of “any other score�, but I'll go with the under for touchdowns.

Longest TD of the Game

Over 43.5 Yards -115
Under 43.5 Yards -115

Ian: Tough call here. Both teams are disciplined enough that you wouldn't expect a long score, but since I'm predicting a lot of points, it's hard to imagine there wouldn't be a long score. Still, I don't see big plays as a big part of this game, so I'll go with Under 43.5 Yards.

Al: 43 is a lot, but there has been a TD longer than that in each of New England's Super Bowl victories. However, Philadelphia hasn't had a TD near that length since Terrell Owens and Brian Westbrook both went for 41 yards against Green Bay in Week 13. No Eagle has topped 43 yards on a scoring play since the Eagles lit up Dallas for 485 yards in Week 10. I'll go Under.

Vivek: The only way that this happens is by a fluke slip on the part of a safety or corner. Under.

Shortest TD of the Game

Over 1.5 Yards -145
Under 1.5 Yards +115

Ian: What an odd bet. Will a team have the ball at the 1? And if they do, will they score? I'll say no to both. Over 1.5.

Al: I agree. You just can't bet that a team will score a TD from the 1-yard line or closer. Over.

Vivek: No brainer. Over.

Total Field Goals Made By Both Teams

Over 3.5 +105
Under 3.5 -135

Ian: Even in Patriots blowouts, Adam usually kicks a bunch of field goals. And Akers is a tremendous kicker as well. I'm gonna say over 3.5.

Al: One field goal apiece. Under.

Vivek: Over. Five touchdowns and five field goals on the day.

Longest FG Made

Over 44.5 Yards -115
Under 44.5 Yards -115

Ian: This is quite the flip-a-coin kind of bet. In fact, I just did. So I'm going with under 44.5 yards.

Al: The current forecast calls for a cool night in Jacksonville on Sunday, with wind gusts of up to 20 miles per hour. Not exactly ideal kicking conditions. I'll go Under.

Vivek: I'd take the over if the line was 40, but 44.5 gets the under.

Shortest FG Made

Over 26 Yards -115
Under 26 Yards -115

Ian: Since both teams have tremendous red zone defenses, I'll take the under on this one as well.

Al: I expect at least one New England defensive stand inside their own ten yard line, so Under it is.

Vivek: Fourth and goal from the 2, Reid of Belichick calls a time out after trying to draw the defense offsides, then kicks a short FG.

Total Sacks By Both Teams

Over 4.5 -140
Under 4.5 +110

Ian: Two of the most mobile quarterbacks in the game, and they think there could be over 4 sacks? I'm going under on this one, and I'm feeling confident about it. Oh, and before you wonder why I'm calling Brady "mobile" when he almost never runs, I'm talking about mobility in the pocket here. And no one does it better than Brady. I find it hard to believe anyone can "feel the pressure," but he sure as hell can.

Al: I'll go over. D-Mac's mobile, but that tends to lead to a QB being sacked more, not less. Especially when his primary receiver will be either inactive or ineffective. Kearse and Derrick Burgess should be able to get to Brady at least once each.

Vivek: Mobile QBs or not, there are still going to be pressured by the defensive lines and find themselves in trouble. Three for one team and two for another is pretty attainable. Over.

Total INT Thrown By Both Teams

Over 2.5 +140
Under 2.5 -170

Ian: I wouldn't think the over here, but given the way the Pats defense comes up huge in big games, I'll take the over.

Al: Under. Brady likely won't throw any INTs in the game. McNabb has thrown less than an INT a game this season. Maybe New England gets two picks on him, but you can't bet that it will be more than that.

Vivek: It's the Super Bowl and Tom Brady, meaning no mistakes from his side. I doubt McNabb will do more than one, so I'll take the under.

Total Fumbles Lost By Both Teams

Over 1.5 +100
Under 1.5 -130

Ian: Ahhh ... The randomness of fumbles. Even if more than one fumble is put on the ground, it's mostly random as to who gets it back. These are two teams that take good care of the football, so I'm gonna go with the under.

Al: Fumbles lost? I'll take even money and go over.

Vivek: McNabb drops the ball after a sack and figure someone else will as well. Over.

Total Punts By Both Teams

Over 8.5 -135
Under 8.5 +105

Ian: Who wants to root for more punts? I'll take the under.

Al: If things go as I think they will, I see six scoring drives. Add in the two half ending drives which will likely not end in a punt or score and we have eight drives. Will there even be another 9 drives in the game? New England has averaged 10.6 drives per game on offense and 10.75 on defense for an average of 21.35 a game. The Eagles have averaged 11.5 on offense and 11.3 on defense for a total of 22.8. That averages out to just about 22 drives per game. That gives me 14 drives that will end with either a punt or turnover. I'll take the over.

Vivek: With my minimum nine scoring drives, I'll have to take the under.

Over/Under First Punt of the Game (Gross Yards)

Over 42.5 -115
Under 42.5 -115

Ian: How in the world do we figure this one out? Since everyone's jacked up for the big game, including the punters, I'll take the over.

Al: I agree. Eagle punter Dirk Johnson was a monster in the NFC Championship game. I say he boots a long one.

Vivek: Under. One of the teams will have a long drive that stalls just outside of field goal range.

Over/Under Largest Lead of the Game (after conversion attempt)

Over 13.5 -170
Under 13.5 +140

Ian: It's only a two-touchdown difference, and I think the Pats will have a bigger lead than that anyways. Gimme the over.

Al: I think the Pats win by 14, so I have to go over.

Vivek: Under! No respect at all.

Total Number of Different Players to Have a Pass Attempt

Over 2.5 +150
Under 2.5 -185

Ian: I don't see either team getting too gadgety in the biggest game of the season. I'm going with under, despite the -185.

Al: All we need is one quarterback to get injured or one team to pull a trick play to hit the over. I'll take it.

Vivek: Westbrook will be the third QB. Over.

Team to Get 1st First Down of the Game

Patriots -145
Eagles +115

Ian: I don't see any good reason to lay 145 on this one, so I'll take the Eagles +115.

Al: Although I said the Patriots would start the game with the ball, this is really a coin flip bet unless you are convinced one team will go three and out on their first possession. I'll take the Eagles as well.

Vivek: I'll be consistent with my pick of the Pats taking the opening kickoff and moving the ball a bit. Pats.

1st Team to Challenge Referee Call (Excludes Official Challenges)

Patriots -110
Eagles -110

Ian: Umm ... The Eagles?

Al: I guess I'll take New England then.

Vivek: After some deep analysis -- Eagles.

Team With the Most Penalty Yards

Patriots +130
Eagles -160

Ian: I expect the Patriots to bring a lot of pressure, leading to holding calls against Philly. I'll take the Eagles -160.

Al: I'll take New England. I expect the officials to pay close attention to the Patriot secondary who could see more than there share of illegal contact or unnecessary roughness penalties. Especially when they're dealing with FredEx.

Vivek: The Eagles were penalized more in the regular season, so I'll use that. Eagles.

Team to Commit the 1st Penalty (Declined Penalties Excluded)

Patriots +125
Eagles -155

Ian: What the heck; I'll take the Pats +125. No good reason for this one.

Al: I'll go with conventional wisdom and say that the Eagles will be jittery early and commit a dumb penalty or two before getting their act together.

Vivek: False start by the Eagle offensive line.

Will a Team Make a Field Goal in the First Quarter

Yes -140
No +110

Ian: Of course one will.

Al: Yes sounds good here.

Vivek: Yes.

Will Both Teams Make a 33 Yard or Longer Field Goal (If No FG, No Wins)

Yes -130
No +100

Ian: Yup; both teams will be making long field goals.

Al: Because of the weather forecast, I'll say no. Akers will hit a short one, but because of weather conditions and the Eagles falling behind early, I don't see him hitting anything from too far away from the goal posts.

Vivek: Yes, sir.

Will There Be a Successful 2 Point Conversion

Yes +350
No -475

Ian: It's unlikely enough that one will even be attempted, but since I think the Eagles will be playing from behind, I'll take the chance at +350 and go with yes.

Al: Terrible bet. The odds would have to be much better than +350 for me to say yes. No.

Vivek: A fourth quarter attempt isn't out of the realm of possibility. Yes.

Will There be a Safety

Yes +600
No -900

Ian: Nah; not worth the chance at 600.

Al: I hate laying so much, but I can't justify betting that there will be a safety.

Vivek: I can't cover the imaginary bet. No.

Will There be Overtime

Yes +550
No -850

Ian: Well, if the Patriots aren't blowing out the Eagles, then I think this one will be close. So I'll say yes with the shot at 550.

Al: Even if it's close, the Pats will win it at the end once again with a field goal. Super Bowls don't go into OT. No.

Vivek: Nope.

Will the Game Be Decided By Exactly Three Points

Yes +300
No -400

Ian: Nah; that's way too specific for my liking.

Al: What a random bet. And what terrible odds. No.

Vivek: No.

Will the Game Be Tied After 0-0? (Tie Determined After Conversion Attempt)

Yes +110
No -140

Ian: What a strange bet. I'll say no, since I expect the Pats to score early and often.

Al: This one's much better than the last one. I'll take the odds and say it's tied at 3-3.

Vivek: Sure, at some point.

Will the Team That Scores First Win the Game

Yes -185
No +150

Ian: You betcha -- Pats, start to finish.

Al: I agree. Yes.

Vivek: Yes, barely.

Will One Quarter Be Scoreless?

Yes +170
No -220

Ian: Hmm ... Any quarter? I suppose there's a decent chance of that. But 170's not enough for me to take that chance; I'll go with no.

Al: I could see New England stopping the Eagles after about a five minute drive to open the third quarter and then taking over ten minutes to march down the field. Yes.

Vivek: It happened twice last year, so sure.

Patriot Player Props

Al: For all of the player props, the player must play in the game, otherwise there's no bet. If the player plays but doesn't record a rush, reception, or pass, the under for number of yards or attempts is the winner.

Tom Brady -- What Will He Throw First

Complete Pass -185
Incomplete Pass +150

Ian: I'll say completed pass -- I can see the Pats using their tight ends over the middle a lot in this game, meaning it should be an easy completion.

Al: Brady completed 60.8 % of his passes this year. Going by that percentage, the odds make Incomplete Pass the better bet.

Vivek: Complete screen pass to Corey Dillon.

Tom Brady -- Will He Thrown an Interception

Yes -150
No +120

Ian: Nope -- protecting the football is always the Pats #1 priority.

Al: I agree. I can't lay money on Brady giving it away. No.

Vivek: I know it's Brady in the Super Bowl, but one mistake or great play from the Eagles' secondary is a strong possibility. Yes.

Tom Brady -- Total Passing Yards

Total Passing Yards Over 236.5 (-115)
Total Passing Yards Under 236.5 (-115)

Ian: I don't expect it to come in big chunks, but I'll take the over.

Al: The line is above Brady's average for the year. The Eagle defense is pretty good, plus I expect the Pats to have a nice lead going into the second half, which means they'll be running the ball more. I'll go under.

Vivek: Under. It'll be a very efficient, but not a fantasy stud day for Brady.

Tom Brady -- Total Completions

Completions Over 20.5 (-115)
Completions Under 20.5 (-115)

Ian: Since the Eagles secondary is too good to get beat deep a lot, and their run defense is solid, I expect the short passing game to be a big part of the Pats offense. That being said, I'm taking the over here.

Al: The number is again higher than Brady's season average -- 18. I'll go under for the same reasons as before.

Vivek: Over, but not by much.

Tom Brady -- Total Pass Attempts

Pass Attempts Over 32.0 (-115)
Pass Attempts Under 32.0 (-115)

Ian: Again, I'll take the over.

Al: Rinse. Repeat. Under.

Vivek: Wow, right at where I expected him to be. Over, but not by much ... again.

Tom Brady -- Total Rushing Yards

Rushing Yards Over 2.5 (-130)
Rushing Yards Under 2.5 (even)

Ian: Hehehe ... Will Tom Brady run or not? The Pats love the QB rush on 2nd and 1 or 3rd and 1, so I'll take the over.

Al: Brady's been a pretty solid rusher this year. He was perfect in the regular season on third and one. I'll go over.

Vivek: Over.

Tom Brady -- Longest Completion

Longest Completion Over 38.5 (-115)
Longest Completion Under 38.5 (-115)

Ian: I'm gonna say under here. Again, I think the Pats will dink-and-dunk their way to victory.

Al: Yeah, have to go under here. Brady's longest pass this year was 50 yards. His deep ball has improved dramatically since 2001, but I don't see too many big plays in this game.

Vivek: I'll echo the peanut gallery -- under.

Tom Brady -- Total Touchdown Passes Thrown

Over 1.5 (-190)
Under 1.5 (+160)

Ian: I'm going over here. I like Philly's run defense, and I expect the Pats to score a lot of points.

Al: Maybe the best bet out of all the props is the over here. Brady's going to throw two TDs. Easy over.

Vivek: Under. One touchdown for Brady, but a few others on the ground.

Tom Brady -- What will he Throw First

Touchdown Pass -200
Interception +170

Ian: Definitely touchdown pass.

Al: As I've said Brady won't throw a pick, I guess I have to say TD here.

Vivek: TD.

Corey Dillon -- Total Rushing Yards

Rushing Yards Over 95.5 (-115)
Rushing Yards Under 95.5 (-115)

Ian:

Since I think the Pats are likely to use the short pass a lot more than the rush, I'll take the under.

/b> We're going to see a lot of Corey Dillon in the second half. Dillon averaged over 100 yards per game and the Eagles allowed 118.9 yards per game in the regular season. OVER.

Vivek: Teams can run on the Eagles. Over.

Corey Dillon -- Longest Rush from Scrimmage

Over 20.5 (-115)
Under 20.5 (-115)

Ian: While I don't expect Corey to end up with a lot of total yards, he usually does break one or two runs up the sideline, so I'll take the over.

Al: Dillon's broken one for 20+ each of the last three games. If he can get 25 off of Pittsburgh, I can't see him not getting over 20 against Philly. Over.

Vivek: I can see Dillon break loose once. Over.

Corey Dillon -- Total Rushing Attempts

Rushing Attempts Over 23.5 (-105)
Rushing Attempts Under 23.5 (-125)

Ian: Even if it's not that effective, the Pats love to pound the ball with abandon, so I'll go with over.

Al: Do you remember Super Bowl XXV? Where the Giants ran the ball nearly 40 times and held the ball for over 40 minutes on offense? Yeah, welcome to the second half of Super Bowl XXXIX. Over.

Vivek: It's his game. Over

Corey Dillon -- Will he Score a Touchdown

Yes -180
No +150

Ian: Nah, I'll bet the Pats tight ends and receivers do the scoring on Sunday.

Al: Dillon's been a TD machine. 10 in his last 9 games. I have to go with Yes.

Vivek: Absolutely one. More than that would be a stretch though.

Corey Dillon -- Total Rushing Yards on FIRST ATTEMPT

Over 3.5 (-130)
Under 3.5 (even)

Ian: Umm ... I'll take under just because of the even money.

Al: You have to love the Super Bowl for these random bets. I wish I was in Vegas. Under.

Vivek: Under.

Corey Dillon -- Total Receiving Yards

Receiving Yards Over 11.5 (-115)
Receiving Yards Under 11.5 (-115)

Al: Dillon hasn't been a big part of the Patriot passing attack this year. There were five games this year when he didn't catch a single ball. Under.

Ian: Though I'd generally say under because of season trends, I'm actually gonna say over instead. Why? Because the Pats have a habit of doing things they've never done before, and the Eagles have a pretty good D-Line and defensive backfield, so I expect the Pats to use their tight ends and running backs out of the backfield more.

Vivek: Dink and dunk with Dillon. That sounds like a Post Super Bowl marketing campaign from Dunkin Donuts, but it'll have me take the over.

Kevin Faulk -- Total Rushing + Receiving Yards

Over 40.5 (-115)
Under 40.5 (-115)

Al: Four different Kevin Faulk betting lines? Faulk averaged 45.7 yards per game in the regular season. Over.

Ian: I'll say under, because Kevin's usually in there to spell Corey. No way Dillon's going to want to rest much this Sunday.

Vivek: Under, but not because of Ian's reasoning. I think Brady will spread the ball around even more than usual, so to ask for 40 yards from Faulk is a lot.

Kevin Faulk -- Longest Rush from Scrimmage

Over 8.0 (even)
Under 8.0 (-130)

Ian: Again, I predict a very quiet day for Kevin. Under.

Al: In four of the last five games he's played, Faulk's topped 8 yards on his longest carry. I'll go with the odds and say Over.

Vivek: Over with a draw play.

Kevin Faulk -- Total Rushing Attempts

Over 4.5 (-130)
Under 4.5 (even)

Ian: Under yet again.

Al: Unless Dillon gets hurt, the Pats will look to Faulk mainly in passing situations. I can't see him getting five carries. Under.

Vivek: Under.

Kevin Faulk -- Total Rushing Yards on FIRST ATTEMPT

Over 3.5 (-130)
Under 3.5 (even)

Ian: I will go with the over here though; Kevin usually provides a burst when he does make an appearance.

Al: Faulk averaged 4.7 yards per carry. Over.

Vivek: Don't be surprised if that 8 yard play happens on his first rush. Over.

Patrick Pass -- Total Rushing + Receiving Yards

Over 18.5 (-115)
Under 18.5 (-115)

Al: Patrick Pass? Seriously? Under.

Ian: Yeah; I can't figure this one out either. Under.

Vivek: Is the Rabih Abdullah line coming too? Under.

Deion Branch -- Total Total Receiving Yards

Over 58.5 (-115)
Under 58.5 (-115)

Ian: Branch is usually boom or bust; either catching long bombs or watching the other guys make short plays. Since I don't anticipate big plays against the Philly secondary, I'll say under.

Al: Now we have to guess which Patriot receiver Brady will like on Sunday. I agree that it won't be Branch. Under.

Vivek: Under for the same reason that I took the under for Faulk's receiving yards.

Deion Branch -- Longest Reception

Over 21.5 (-115)
Under 21.5 (-115)

Ian: Only 21.5? I'll give him at least one seam route up the middle. Over.

Al: Even when Branch doesn't have a big day he's still good for a 20+ yard reception. Over.

Vivek: Unanimous -- over.

Deion Branch -- Total Receptions

Over 4.0 (-130)
Under 4.0 (even)

Ian: Under. Can't think of any reason for this other than the even money.

Al: I'm surprised under has such better odds. Since Branch returned from injury in November, he's only topped four receptions twice in nine games, including the postseason. Under seems like a great play.

Vivek: Under for the even money too.

Deion Branch -- Total Receiving Yards on First Reception

Over 11.5 (-125)
Under 11.5 (-105)

Ian: Over; he's much more of a downfield threat than a short route kinda guy.

Al: Agreed. Branch averaged 13 yards a reception this season. Over.

Vivek: Ditto. Over.

Deion Branch -- Will he Score a Touchdown

Yes +130
No -160

Ian: Nah; I'll leave it to Givens and the tight ends.

Al: No. New England has too many options to say yes. I might just pick no for all the Patriot receivers to hedge my bets.

Vivek: I doubt any Pats receiver will score on the day. No.

Deion Branch -- Will he have a Rushing Attempt

Yes +200
No -250

Ian: Sure, why not. He's done it many times before, and it's a $450 swing.

Al: No. The Eagles will be expecting Branch to get a carry or two since New England has had him carry the ball in both playoff games this year. They might fake it to Branch, but I can't see Belichick going to this same well three games in a row.

Vivek: Not in the Super Bowl.

David Givens -- Total Total Receiving Yards

Over 56.5 (-115)
Under 56.5 (-115)

Ian: Over -- He's their best wide receiver at making first downs and keeping drives alive.

Al: I'll say under. I don't expect any individual Patriot receiver to have that big of a game. Brady's going to spread the wealth.

Vivek: Over, but only for about 15 yards more.

David Givens -- Longest Reception

Over 21.5 (-115)
Under 21.5 (-115)

Ian: Under; the long balls usually go to Branch and Patten.

Al: Over New England's first 8 games, Givens topped this number five times. Since then, including the playoffs, he's had a reception longer than 21.5 yards only twice, and one of those was for 22 yards. Under.

Vivek: Under. Brady's big pass is going to Branch

David Givens -- Total Receptions

Over 4.0 (-115)
Under 4.0 (-115)

Ian: Over. Again, I expect him to be a solid part of the offense this weekend.

Al: Strange that these lines are at 4.0 and not 4.5. I guess Vegas thinks 4 is the magic number for Patriot receiver receptions and doesn't want to pay it off. Under.

Vivek: Over -- favorite target of the day.

David Givens -- Total Receiving Yards on First Reception

Over 12.5 (-120)
Under 12.5 (-110)

Ian: Over- He loves those 15-yard flag routes, and Brady loves to throw them to him.

Al: I don't get why this line is a yard higher than it was for Branch. Under.

Vivek: Under on a first down pass play.

David Givens -- Will he Score a Touchdown

Yes +150
No -185

Ian: Sure; why not. He's terrific at taking those WR screens to the house from inside the 10-yard line.

Al: No. The Patriot receivers don't score that many touchdowns. Maybe one of them will find the end zone. If that happens, and I bet No for the three receivers, I end up positive without having to correctly guess which one it will be.

Vivek: No.

David Patten -- Total Total Receiving Yards

Over 40.5 (-115)
Under 40.5 (-115)

Ian: Under; mainly because I imagine the Pats will be in control early and look to pound the ball. That means limited opportunities for their third wideout.

Al: Over. Patten hasn't been getting a lot of action lately, which is exactly why I'm taking the over. Reverse psychology.

Vivek: I'm adding up Brady's passing yards, and I'm getting close to my magic number of 220. That doesn't leave room for Patten. No.

David Patten -- Longest Reception

Over 20.5 (-115)
Under 20.5 (-115)

Ian: Under. I'm not predicting we'll hear Patten's name much on Sunday.

Al: Over. He's topped this in five of the last eight games where he's caught a pass.

Vivek: No.

David Patten -- Total Receptions

Over 2.5 (-130)
Under 2.5 (even)

Ian: Under again.

Al: He'll get four receptions along with every other Patriot receiver. Over.

Vivek: Three seems reasonable. Over.

David Patten -- Total Receiving Yards on First Reception

Over 12.5 (-120)
Under 12.5 (-110)

Ian: And again; under.

Al: Someone needs to catch a short pass. Under.

Vivek: Under

Daniel Graham -- Total Total Receiving Yards

Over 19.5 (-115)
Under 19.5 (-115)

Ian: Tough one here ... He's been really quiet lately. But I'm saying over.

Al: The Philly linebackers are great. Alge Crumpler broke free for a big reception last week, but Graham is no Alge Crumpler. Under.

Vivek: He'll drop a pass that would have put him over the top. Under.

Daniel Graham -- Longest Reception

Over 12.5 (-115)
Under 12.5 (-115)

Ian: Let's give him one 25-yard seam route up the middle. Over.

Al: Under. I don't see anything longer than 10 yards.

Vivek: Under. Only 5-yard catches for him.

Daniel Graham -- Total Receiving Yards on First Reception

Over 8.5 (-115)
Under 8.5 (-115)

Ian: Under; he'll probably catch a 3-5 yarder for a first down early in the game.

Al: Under again.

Vivek: Under for the reason above.

Christian Fauria -- Total Receiving Yards

Over 19.5 (-115)
Under 19.5 (-115)

Ian: I can't bet on any tight ends catching a touchdown? What a bummer. I'll give Fauria the over here.

Al: Nice, gambling on second string tight ends. If the Eagles can contain Graham, they'll have no problem neutralizing Fauria. Under.

Vivek: Under.

Will Rodney Harrison or Eugene Wilson Intercept a Pass?

Yes (Both Must Play) +140
No (Both Must Play) -180

Ian: Sure; why not.

Al: At first I was sure I'd say no, but both Wilson and Harrison have a pair of INTs in the playoffs. Why not, I'll say Yes.

Vivek: You know Rodney is going to be pushing extra hard to take one away from Freddie Mitchell. Yes.

Troy Brown -- Will He Score a TD or Intercept a Pass?

Yes (Must Play) +200
No (Must Play) -250

Ian: Nah. He's been a very solid player, but not so much a big-play kinda guy lately.

Al: No. I can't bet that a nickel corner or #4 receiver will catch a TD or intercept a pass.

Vivek: Nope.

Adam Vinatieri -- Total Points

Over 8.5 (+110)
Under 8.5 (-140)

Ian: Over. Adam always scores a lot, even in Pats blowouts.

Al: 3 XP, 1 FG = 6. Under.

Vivek: Over -- 3 FG and 2 XP.

Patriots -- What Will They Do First

Score Points +115
Punt -145

Ian: Ooohhh ... Interesting. I'll say punt, and chalk it up to pre-game jitters.

Al: Score on the first drive of the game.

Vivek: Score.

Patriots -- Total Rushing Yards

Over 124.5 (-115)
Under 124.5 (-115)

Ian: Under. It's all about the short passing game.

Al: I have Dillon going for more than 100, so I'm not about to go under here. Over.

Vivek: Dillon will be close on his own. Over.

Patriots -- Total First Downs

Over 21.5 (-115)
Under 21.5 (-115)

Ian: That seems like an awful lot. I'll say under.

Al: This number is the Patriots' exact regular season average. The Eagles allowed only 18.7 first down per games over the regular season, so I'll go under.

Vivek: I don't think that they'll be enough time in the game to put up that many. Both teams should have a few long drives to take away from the others' time of possession.

Total Number of Different Patriots to have a Rushing Attempt -- Kneel down is a Rush Attempt

Over 4.5 (+135)
Under 4.5 (-170)

Ian: Under.

Al: Under. Brady, Dillon, Faulk, will each get a carry. To get to five you need at least one end around and a Patrick Pass appearance. In the words of Dean from Dean's Home Furniture, I doubt it.

Vivek: I'll jump ship and say over. Patrick Pass and then a surprise appearance from someone. Larry H to the Izzo!

Total Number of Different Patriots to have a Pass Reception

Over 7.5 (-145)
Under 7.5 (+115)

Ian: Definitely over. No one spreads the ball better than Brady.

Al: Branch, Patten, Givens, Graham, Faulk are all definite. I don't like the odds on another three players catching the ball to lay money on the over. Only eight Patriots averaged a reception per game or more over the regular season. Seven different receivers is a lot, I can't bet that it will be more than that, especially when the under has the better odds.

Vivek: Eight is an awful lot. Under.

Total Number of Different Patriots to Score -- Includes Kickers, Safety DOES NOT Count, Includes 2 Pt Conversions

Over 3.5 (+110)
Under 3.5 (-140)

Ian: I'm not sure I even understand this bet. I'll just take over and the +110.

Al: Three different Patriots scoring TDs and Vinatieri makes four. I like the chances of that happening. Over.

Vivek: Dillon, a WR, a TE, and then Faulk or even Brady on a sneak. Seems good. Over.

Patriots -- Total 3rd Down Conversions MADE

Over 5.5 (-160)
Under 5.5 (+130)

Ian: How to figure this one out? I'll say over.

Al: This number is exactly where it should be. The Pats averaged 5.8 third downs per game on offense, Philadelphia allowed 5.1 on defense. Under has the better odds, so I'll go with that.

Vivek: Sure, over.

Patriots -- Will they Score in 1st and 2nd Quarter

Yes -165
No +135

Ian: You betcha.

Al: Both quarters? Sure.

Vivek: Yep.

Patriots -- Will they Convert a 4th Down Attempt

Yes -115
No -115

Ian: I think so. With a dink-and-dunk style of offense, they'll arrive at a lot of 4th and shorts. I imagine they'll convert one of them.

Al: No. The Pats won't be in a position where they'll need to go for it on 4th. They only went for it on fourth down 10 times this season, the eighth fewest attempts in the NFL.

Vivek: No. Belichick won't risk giving the Eagles good field position or leaving points on the board.

Patriots -- Will they Score a Rushing Touchdown

Yes -200
No +170

Ian: I'll say no and take the points. They'll score, but I anticipate passing TDs.

Al: Dillon's finding the end zone. Yes.

Vivek: I've said it for the past 21 pages, yes.

Patriots -- Will they Score a FIRST Quarter Touchdown

Yes -115
No -115

Ian: You betcha.

Al: No -- first quarter field goal followed by two second quarter TDs.

Vivek: Coin flip on this one. No.

Eagles Player Props

Donovan McNabb -- What Will He Throw First

Complete Pass -160
Incomplete Pass +130

Ian: Incomplete. I've said it before, and seen it throughout the season- Donovan struggles with his early throws, usually throwing high. And who knows how the Pats will line up against him.

Al: I say complete. McNabb completed 68.5% of his first ten pass attempts in a game. At that rate, complete is a much better bet than incomplete.

Vivek: Incomplete pass. He'll be a bit jittery at the beginning.

Donovan McNabb -- Will He Thrown an Interception

Yes -200
No +170

Ian: At least one? Sure.

Al: Yeah, the Pats will get there hands on one of Donovan's passes.

Vivek: Just one.

Donovan McNabb -- Total Passing Yards

Over 252.5 (-115)
Under 252.5 (-115)

Ian: Over, but mainly because the Pats will be routing the Eagles, and won't mind him moving up and down the field in the 4th.

Al: Jake Delhomme put up 323 against New England last year. Warner had 365 back in 2002. New England's defense has allowed 227 yards a game this post-season in conditions that will be much worse than those in Jacksonville on Sunday, even if it is a little chilly. Over.

Vivek: Over, courtesy of about 80 yards in the fourth quarter.

Donovan McNabb -- Total Completions

Over 21.5 (-115)
Under 21.5 (-115)

Ian: Over, for the reasons mentioned above.

Al: Even when McNabb has a big game, he doesn't top 21 completions. He's done so only five times this year, including the post season. I'm also hedging my bet a little here with the total passing yards being over 252.5. I think I'll definitely hit one of these and there's a decent change of getting both. McNabb managed to throw for more than 252.5 yards on less than 21.5 pass attempts three different times this year. Under.

Vivek: 21 passes really isn't that much, Al, and you're asking for a lot of yards per completion. Over.

Donovan McNabb -- Total Pass Attempts

Over 33.5 (-115)
Under 33.5 (-115)

Ian: Over again.

Al: This numbers a little low. McNabb beat this number seven times this year and hit 33 on the nose two other times. Over.

Vivek: Over.

Donovan McNabb -- Total Rushing Yards

Over 29.5 (-115)
Under 29.5 (-115)

Ian: Over; I'm sure he'll be feeling the pressure of the big game, and want to do all he can to take his team on his shoulders. That means he'll be off and running.

Al: 29.5 is a lot for McNabb, especially against a defense whose strength is its front seven. Under.

Vivek: Under. I don't expect him to scramble by design at all, leaving room for a few fluke runs, but not 30 yards.

Donovan McNabb -- Longest Completion

Over 42.5 (-115)
Under 42.5 (-115)

Ian: Under. If Peyton couldn't get past 20, McNabb certainly can't.

Al: Peyton was throwing in the middle of a snowstorm in New England. McNabb will have to deal with some wind, but nothing compared to what he faced in the NFC Championship game in Philadelphia when he managed a 45 yard completion to Greg Lewis. If McNabb is going to have success throwing against New England it will be by attacking them deep. Over.

Vivek: I see it now -- Todd Pinkston running a deep route, about to pull in a 42.5-yard reception, then stops in fear of being hit. Not going to happen.

Donovan McNabb -- Total Touchdown Passes Thrown

Over 1.5 (-140)
Under 1.5 (+110)

Ian: Tough one here. I'll say under. Maybe Dorsey Levens will score the 1 or 2 touchdowns the Eagles score.

Al: Under also. I'm betting on Philly only scoring one TD, so I can't bet on McNabb throwing two.

Vivek: Over. I'm banking a lot one, huge late drive by the Eagles.

Donovan McNabb -- What will he Throw First

Touchdown Pass -180
Interception +150

Ian: Since I'm not sure he'll throw any touchdowns, I'll say interception.

Al: Same logic here. Interception.

Vivek: Touchdown.

Donovan McNabb -- Total Rushing Yards on FIRST ATTEMPT

Over 6.5 (-130)
Under 6.5 (even)

Ian: He doesn't usually run unless he sees it's a big opportunity, so I'll say over.

Al: But he could also get his first attempt by trying to avoid a sack and managing to just cross the line of scrimmage. Under.

Vivek: With Al's train of thought, under.

Brian Westbrook -- Total Rushing Yards

Over 65.5 (-115)
Under 65.5 (-115)

Ian: Under. The Pats will target Westbrook all day and shut him down.

Al: Westbrook will get somewhere between 10 and 15 carries. At the high end going by his per carry average of 4.6 yards, that barely beats the over. Under.

Vivek: 10-15 carries? I'm thinking closer to 18-20. Drop his yards per carry to 4.0, and he clears 66.5. Over.

Brian Westbrook -- Longest Rush from Scrimmage

Over 17.5 (-115)
Under 17.5 (-115)

Ian: Under again.

Al: I like the odds of Westbrook having a long reception than a long rush. Under.

Vivek: Under.

Brian Westbrook -- Total Rushing Attempts

Over 12.5 (-115)
Under 12.5 (-115)

Ian: Once the Eagles start playing catch-up, this becomes an under.

Al: Hmm ... Exactly in the middle of my expectations. Coin flip says over.

Vivek: Over.

Brian Westbrook -- Total Rushing Yards on FIRST ATTEMPT

Over 3.5 (-115)
Under 3.5 (-115)

Ian: Under -- I don't like the Eagles chances early.

Al: That's very low, at least half a yard below where the line should be. Over.

Vivek: Over, just to keep riding the Eagles.

Brian Westbrook -- Will he Score a Touchdown

Yes +110
No -140

Ian: Dorsey gets the goal line lovin'. I'll say no.

Al: No TD for Westbrook.

Vivek: What about a TD in the air?Yes.

Brian Westbrook -- Total Receiving Yards

Over 56.5 (-115)
Under 56.5 (-115)

Ian: Under yet again. Mark it down: Westbrook will be a non-factor against the Pats defense. Remember what they did to Marshall Faulk three Super Bowls ago?

Al: Under. The Patriot linebackers won't let Westbrook get very far.

Vivek: Under.

Brian Westbrook -- Total Receptions

Over 5.5 (-140)
Under 5.5 (+110)

Ian: Under. Even though 5.5 seems low.

Al: 5.5 is very low. He's had at least five receptions in his last seven games. I see a lot of catches for not too many yards for Westbrook. Over.

Vivek: Over. A lot of catches, but not for huge yardage.

Brian Westbrook -- Total Receiving Yards on First Reception

Over 7.5 (-130)
Under 7.5 (even)

Ian: Under yet again.

Al: These first reception/carry lines are so random. This is two yards under his season average, so I'll go over.

Vivek: Under. A quick pass and a hard hit.

Brian Westbrook -- Longest Reception

Over 20.0 (-115)
Under 20.0 (-115)

Ian: Can you say, "Under?"

Al: I like the over here more than for the longest rush, but I still have to go under.

Vivek: Wow, 20 for a running back. Seems way to high. Under.

Dorsey Levens -- Total Rushing + Receiving Yards

Over 33.5 (-115)
Under 33.5 (-115)

Ian: 33.5 yards? For Dorsey Levens? Waaaay under.

Al: I don't see Levens getting that much time either. Under.

Vivek: Sure that wasn't supposed to be 3.35? Under.

Dorsey Levens -- Longest Rush from Scrimmage

Over 6.5 (-115)
Under 6.5 (-115)

Ian: Under. I feel no need to comment on why.

Al: I'll go over. I can see Levens gaining seven yards on a draw at some point in the game.

Vivek: He'll be used closer than 5 yards from the goal line and third down situations that don't need a long rush. I don't see the opportunity ever being there.

Dorsey Levens -- Total Rushing Attempts

Over 6.5 (-130)
Under 6.5 (even)

Ian: Under.

Al: We're not done with the Dorsey Levens lines yet? Under.

Vivek: Don't worry, Al. We're getting closer to the Vai Sikahema section. Under.

Dorsey Levens -- Total Rushing Yards on FIRST ATTEMPT

Over 3.5 (+110)
Under 3.5 (-140)

Ian: Under.

Al: I'm just taking the odds on these first attempt lines now. Over.

Vivek: Over.

Dorsey Levens -- Will he Score a Touchdown

Yes +180
No -220

Ian: Ok, here's where I give him some credit. He can pound it in as well as anyone. I'll say yes. (And yes, I just said that Dorsey Levens can "pound it in as well as anyone." Just repeating what Freddie Mitchell said.)

Al: You have Dorsey Levens doing absolutely nothing all game, yet you're going to give him a touchdown? I don't get it. No.

Vivek: Ian didn't have him doing nothing, just using one of his less than six carries to go no more than six yards into the end zone. I'll say it doesn't happen, though.

Josh Parry -- Total Rushing + Receiving Yards

Over 5.5 (-115)
Under 5.5 (-115)

Ian: Who? Under.

Al: Former San Jose State linebacker Josh Parry, that's who. How is there a line for this? Under.

Vivek: Don't let those 44 yards combined in weeks seven and eight fool you. Under.

Todd Pinkston -- Total Receiving Yards

Over 45.5 (-115)
Under 45.5 (-115)

Ian: Harrison couldn't top this. Wayne couldn't top this. Stokley couldn't top this. Under.

Al: I just can't see Pinkston crossing against the middle and coming up with a catch with Rodney Harrison two steps away from delivering a shoulder to his head. Under.

Vivek: What's the line on times Pinkston runs out of bounds to avoid a hit? I'd put that at four. Under.

Todd Pinkston -- Longest Reception

Over 18.5 (-115)
Under 18.5 (-115)

Ian: Under again.

Al: If they go to Pinkston it won't be deep. Under.

Vivek: Under.

Todd Pinkston -- Total Receptions

Over 2.5 (-175)
Under 2.5 (+145)

Ian: Under; he's soft as tissue and will be a non-factor.

Al: On a good day Pinkston only gets three catches. Under.

Vivek: I'm going against the curve here and will say over. I see four or five catches for him.

Todd Pinkston -- Total Receiving Yards on First Reception

Over 13.5 (-130)
Under 13.5 (even)

Ian: You said under wins if he doesn't catch a ball, right? Under.

Al: Again I'm just going with the best odds on these first reception bets. Under.

Vivek: Under.

Freddie Mitchell -- Total Receiving Yards

Over 44.0 (-115)
Under 44.0 (-115)

Ian: What the heck; maybe the Pats will let him catch some passes just so they can beat the crap out of him after he does. I'll go with over.

Al: Agreed. With T.O. still hobbled, Mitchell is the Eagles' best deep threat. Over.

Vivek: Yeah, one big catch for 25 yards and that number is easily within striking distance. Over.

Freddie Mitchell -- Longest Reception

Over 19.5 (-115)
Under 19.5 (-115)

Ian: Over again.

Al: Over.

Vivek: Over.

Freddie Mitchell -- Total Receptions

Over 2.5 (-135)
Under 2.5 (+105)

Ian: Yup, over here too.

Al: He'll get two long ones, but nothing more than that. Under.

Vivek: Over.

Freddie Mitchell -- Total Receiving Yards on First Reception

Over 11.5 (-115)
Under 11.5 (-115)

Ian: I'll go with under this time.

Al: Even odds, but with extra juice. Over.

Vivek: He'll have one this long, just not on the first touch.

Will Freddie Mitchell or L.J. Smith Score a Touchdown

Yes (Both Must Play) +110
No (Both Must Play) -140

Ian: Yes, seems reasonable enough. L.J. Smith is a popular target for Donovan near the goal line.

Al: I'm a big L.J. Smith fan. This is an awful bet, but I'll make it. Yes.

Vivek: My money is on the yes.

L.J. Smith -- Total Total Receiving Yards

Over 43.5 (-115)
Under 43.5 (-115)

Ian: That seems like an awful lot. Under.

Al: Wow, that's high, but someone has to catch McNabb's passes. With Chad Lewis out, L.J. could see a few more passes go his way than he usually sees. Over.

Vivek: Over. Everything again returns to my magical last ditch drive for the Eagles.

L.J. Smith -- Longest Reception

Over 18.5 (-115)
Under 18.5 (-115)

Ian: Under again.

Al: L.J. has a nice three game streak where he's had a reception of 19 yards or more. He'll keep it going. Over.

Vivek: Under. More short routes for L.J.

L.J. Smith -- Total Receptions

Over 3.5 (-115)
Under 3.5 (-115)

Ian: I can see him catching 4 short balls though. Over.

Al: It's going to be all L.J., all the time. Over.

Vivek: Over.

L.J. Smith -- Total Receiving Yards on First Reception

Over 10.5 (-115)
Under 10.5 (-115)

Ian: Under on this one.

Al: I can't believe how convinced I am that L.J. Smith will have a big game against the Patriot defense. It makes no sense. Over.

Vivek: I'm picturing my girlfriend smacking me as I measure the distance on L.J.'s first reception of the day. Under.

Greg Lewis -- Total Total Receiving Yards

Over 43.5 (-115)
Under 43.5 (-115)

Ian: He's been a popular downfield target for Donovan lately, and was probably the best sleeper pick by any of our Best of the Rest Playoff Fantasy Football teams. I'll say over.

Al: I'll say over as well. Pinkston will be the odd man out with Owens back. McNabb will take a couple of shots downfield with Lewis and hit one of them. Throw in a screen pass where the Eagles ask Lewis to just outrun the Patriot defenders and I see at least 44 yards going his way.

Vivek: The Greg Lewis bandwagon might be the only one that I haven't hopped aboard. 44 yards total? A lot to ask for. Under.

Greg Lewis -- Longest Reception

Over 20.5 (-115)
Under 20.5 (-115)

Ian: I'll give him a shot at a long reception- Over.

Al: Seriously, this guy is fast. If he gets a catch he'll manage to get 20 yards out of it. Over.

Vivek: I'll give him one long reception. Over.

Greg Lewis -- Total Receiving Yards on First Reception

Over 12.5 (-130)
Under 12.5 (even)

Ian: Since just about all he does is catch long passes, I'll say over here as well.

Al: I'm not going away from my take the better odds plan on these first reception bets. Under.

Vivek: Under.

Greg Lewis -- Will he have a Rushing Attempt

Yes +170
No -200

Ian: Well, he might be the fastest guy on the field, and the Eagles need to do something to keep the Pats on their toes. I'll say yes and hope for $170.

Al: Rushing attempt? He's only had 5 this year. No.

Vivek: Why in the world would you let him run now? No.

Will Lito Sheppard or Brian Dawkins Intercept a Pass?

Yes (Both Must Play) +140
No (Both Must Play) -180

Ian: Nope; nobody's catching a Brady pass that's not wearing a Patriots jersey.

Al: I love the name Lito, but I'll go under as well.

Vivek: If it wasn't Brady, I'd say yes. No.

David Akers -- Total Points

Over 7.5 (even)
Under 7.5 (-130)

Ian: Akers is great, but he can't create his own opportunities. Under.

Al: Every time I hear his name, I always think of my favorite line from Last Action Hero: "Want to be a farmer? Here's two acres." Much funnier when you hear Arnold say it right before kicking someone in the nuts. Under.

Vivek: I'd like to credit Al for the furthest stretch ever to throw in a movie reference. Two field goals and some extra points for Akers. Over.

Eagles -- What will they do First

Score Points -135
Punt Twice +105

Ian: Hehehe ... That's funny. I'll go with score, since turnovers don't affect the bet.

Al: I'm just taking the odds and going with punt twice.

Vivek: Score.

Eagles -- Total Rushing Yards

Over 110 (-115)
Under 110 (-115)

Ian: Under. The Pats will be all over Westbrook, and Donovan won't get enough rushing yards to make up the difference.

Vivek: Unless Josh Parry comes up big, I'll stick to the under.

Al: None of us expect a big rushing day out of Philadelphia. Under.

Eagles -- Total First Downs

Over 19.5 (-115)
Under 19.5 (-115)

Ian: Under. The Patriots defense is just too damn good.

Vivek: Al mentioned earlier that the Eagles are averaging a shade under 19 first downs per game for the year. It'll be hard to go above that against the Pats. Under.

Al: I'll go over for no reason other than the two of you went under.

Total Number of Different Eagles to have a Rushing Attempt -- Kneel down is a Rush Attempt

Over 3.5 (even)
Under 3.5 (-130)

Ian: I'll go over on this one, since Donovan, Westbrook and Levens are pretty much a lock to rush, and all they need is one more player.

Vivek: Josh Parry! The down payment for my first home hinges on the legs of Josh Parry. Over.

Al: I didn't expect over to have the better odds here. I'll say there's a end around and go over.

Total Number of Different Eagles to have a Pass Reception

Over 7 (-140)
Under 7 (+110)

Ian: Tough one- I'll take the over here, since McNabb will be passing like crazy in the 2nd half.

Vivek: Who else is there? Westbrook, Levens, Mitchell, Pinkston, Smith, Lewis and T.O.? Under.

Al: You forgot about Josh Parry. Over.

Total Number of Different Eagles to Score -- Includes Kickers Safety DOES NOT Count Includes 2 Pt Conversions

Over 3 (-115)
Under 3 (-115)

Ian: I'll take the over. I can't see less than 3, but perhaps a push will nullify this bet.

Vivek: Over.

Al: One TD and one FG = only two different scorers. Under.

Eagles -- Total 3rd Down Conversions MADE

Over 4.5 (-200)
Under 4.5 (+170)

Ian: 4.5 doesn't seem like that many; I'll say over.

Vivek: Over, even though 4.5 is EXACTLY the Eagles' regular season average.

Al: Wow, this is the Eagles season average and they're facing a tough defense but somehow under has much better odds than over. I'll take the odds and say under.

Eagles -- Will they Score in 1st and 2nd Quarter

Yes +120
No -150

Ian: Nah, I doubt they'll score in the 1st quarter.

Vivek: Yep.

Al: One early and one late but none in the middle. No.

Eagles -- Will they Convert a 4th Down Attempt

Yes +120
No -150

Ian: Sure, why not. They'll be playing catch-up.

Vivek: Everyone with me now: "Late-game scoring drive" Yes.

Al: A late scoring drive doesn't mean they'll convert a fourth down. I say no.

Eagles -- Will they Score a Rushing Touchdown

Yes -130
No +100

Ian: I get better odds on no? I'll say no.

Vivek: Ian -- hedging your bet? Didn't you say that Levens would rush for a TD? Yes.

Al: I'm a bit surprised no has the better odds as well. No.

Eagles -- Will they Score a FIRST Quarter Touchdown

Yes +115
No -145

Ian: Nope -- I don't think they'll score a 1st quarter anything.

Vivek: Better odds on yes.

Al: I'll say yes just to mix things up.

Super Bowl XXXIX -- Player to Score 1st TD (All Bets Action)


Corey Dillon (Patriots) 6-1
Deion Branch (Patriots) 12-1
David Givens (Patriots) 13-1
David Patten (Patriots) 13-1
Daniel Graham (Patriots) 20-1
Kevin Faulk (Patriots) 20-1
Troy Brown (Patriots) 22-1
Bethel Johnson (Patriots) 25-1
Tom Brady (Patriots) 30-1
Christian Fauria (Patriots) 30-1
Terrell Owens (Eagles) 15-1
Brian Westbrook (Eagles) 8-1
Dorsey Levens (Eagles) 12-1
L.J. Smith (Eagles) 15-1
Todd Pinkston (Eagles) 15-1
Freddie Mitchell (Eagles) 15-1
Chad Lewis (Eagles) off
Donovan McNabb (Eagles) 14-1
Greg Lewis (Eagles) 20-1
Field (All Other Players) 8-1
NO Touchdown Scored 100-1

Ian: Hmm ... What the heck; I'll take Daniel Graham at 20-1.

Vivek: Just for the 30-1 odds, I'll forecast a Tom Brady sneak into the end zone.

Al: No Josh Parry? I'll play it safe and go with Dillon.

Super Bowl XXXIX -- Margin of Victory


Patriots Win By 01-03 pts 6-1
Patriots Win By 04-06 pts 11-2
Patriots Win By 07-10 pts 4-1
Patriots Win By 11-13 pts 8-1
Patriots Win By 14-17 pts 6-1
Patriots Win By 18-21 pts 11-1
Patriots Win By 22 or more 11-2
Eagles Win By 01-03 pts 10-1
Eagles Win By 04-06 pts 12-1
Eagles Win By 07-10 pts 10-1
Eagles Win By 11-13 pts 25-1
Eagles Win By 14-17 pts 18-1
Eagles Win By 18-21 pts 35-1
Eagles Win By 22 or more 20-1

Ian: It's so unlikely to win this, I'll go with the best odds the Pats can give. Patriots by 18-21 at 11-1.

Vivek: Pats win by 4-6.

Al: Pats by 14-17.

Super Bowl XXXIX -- First Scoring Play of the Game will be


Patriots Field Goal 3-1
Patriots Touchdown Pass 7-2
Patriots Touchdown Run 9-2
Patriots Any Other Touchdown 18-1
Patriots Safety 60-1
Eagles Field Goal 4-1
Eagles Touchdown Pass 9-2
Eagles Touchdown Run 7-1
Eagles Any Other Touchdown 20-1
Eagles Safety 60-1

Ian: I'm going with Patriots field goal. The other odds aren't enticing enough for me to sway from the favorite.

Vivek: Pats TD run. I just said it above with the Brady TD.

Al: Patriot FG.

Super Bowl XXXIX -- LAST Scoring Play of the Game will be


Patriots Field Goal 3-1
Patriots Touchdown Pass 4-1
Patriots Touchdown Run 9-2
Patriots Any Other Touchdown 12-1
Patriots Safety 40-1
Eagles Field Goal 5-1
Eagles Touchdown Pass 7-2
Eagles Touchdown Run 7-1
Eagles Any Other Touchdown 20-1
Eagles Safety 30-1

Ian: I'd like to hope for a big win here, so I'll hope for a late interception returned for a touchdown by New England. Patriots Any Other Touchdown, 12-1.

Vivek: Eagles touchdown pass at 7-2.

Al: Eagle passing TD to be the first score of the game is 9-2. Last score of the game it's at 7-2. I guess Vegas agrees with us that Philly will be playing catch up late and is likely to score a garbage time TD. I'll gamble and say it's a Pats Other TD with someone picking of McNabb late and taking it to the house. Now that I think about it, I'm pretty sure that I earlier picked that there would be no defensive TD. That was about 30 pages and four days ago, though.

Super Bowl XXXIX -- Total Points Scored by Both Teams


00-14 Points 35-1
15-21 Points 20-1
22-28 Points 12-1
29-35 Points 6-1
36-42 Points 7-2
43-49 Points 3-1
50-56 Points 7-2
57-63 Points 7-1
64-70 Points 15-1
71-77 Points 25-1
78 or More Points 12-1

Ian: This has to be the most unlikely bet for you to do well on. Umm ... How about 57-63, 7-1.

Vivek: 57-63. I originally going to go for 54 total points, but I might as well aim for a higher score at 7-1 odds versus 7-2.

Al: Although I've been saying all along I'm expecting a 24-10 Patriot victory, the odds at 34 points are too low to take. This could turn out to be a very low scoring game, so I'll go with 15-21.

Patriots -- Total Points Scored in Super Bowl XXXIX


00 Points by NE 70-1
02 Points by NE 5000-1
03 Points by NE 75-1
04 Points by NE 8500-1
05 Points by NE 100-1
06 Points by NE 65-1
07 Points by NE 30-1
08 Points by NE 75-1
09 Points by NE 60-1
10 Points by NE 25-1
11 Points by NE 65-1
12 Points by NE 65-1
13 Points by NE 20-1
14 Points by NE 18-1
15 Points by NE 50-1
16 Points by NE 30-1
17 Points by NE 15-1
18 Points by NE 40-1
19 Points by NE 30-1
20 Points by NE 12-1
21 Points by NE 10-1
22 Points by NE 30-1
23 Points by NE 12-1
24 Points by NE 8-1
25 Points by NE 30-1
26 Points by NE 20-1
27 Points by NE 8-1
28 Points by NE 8-1
29 Points by NE 30-1
30 Points by NE 15-1
31 Points by NE 10-1
32 Points by NE 40-1
33 Points by NE 20-1
34 Points by NE 12-1
35 Points by NE 10-1
36 Points by NE 30-1
37 Points by NE 25-1
38 Points by NE 16-1
39 Points by NE 40-1
40 Points by NE 30-1
41 Points by NE 25-1
42 Points by NE 25-1
43 Points by NE 35-1
44 Points by NE 30-1
45 Points by NE 25-1
46 Points by NE 50-1
47 Points by NE 40-1
48 Points by NE 50-1
49 Points by NE 40-1
50 or More Points 20-1

Ian: Forget what I said about the last bet, and say it again for the next two. How in the world do you figure this one out? I'll say 41 points at 25-1.

Vivek: 30 at 15-1.

Al: 22 at 30-1.

Eagles -- Total Points Scored in Super Bowl XXXIX


00 Points by PHI 28-1
02 Points by PHI 1000-1
03 Points by PHI 30-1
04 Points by PHI 2000-1
05 Points by PHI 350-1
06 Points by PHI 18-1
07 Points by PHI 15-1
08 Points by PHI 30-1
09 Points by PHI 300-1
10 Points by PHI 10-1
11 Points by PHI 30-1
12 Points by PHI 30-1
13 Points by PHI 10-1
14 Points by PHI 10-1
15 Points by PHI 25-1
16 Points by PHI 15-1
17 Points by PHI 8-1
18 Points by PHI 25-1
19 Points by PHI 20-1
20 Points by PHI 7-1
21 Points by PHI 7-1
22 Points by PHI 30-1
23 Points by PHI 12-1
24 Points by PHI 10-1
25 Points by PHI 35-1
26 Points by PHI 30-1
27 Points by PHI 15-1
28 Points by PHI 12-1
29 Points by PHI 40-1
30 Points by PHI 25-1
31 Points by PHI 18-1
32 Points by PHI 50-1
33 Points by PHI 50-1
34 Points by PHI 35-1
35 Points by PHI 30-1
36 Points by PHI 60-1
37 Points by PHI 40-1
38 Points by PHI 40-1
39 Points by PHI 100-1
40 Points by PHI 75-1
41 Points by PHI 50-1
42 Points by PHI 50-1
43 Points by PHI 100-1
44 Points by PHI 75-1
45 Points by PHI 60-1
46 Points by PHI 75-1
47 Points by PHI 75-1
48 Points by PHI 50-1
49 Points by PHI 50-1
50 or More Points 30-1

Ian: I'll say 17 points at 8-1. Not great odds, but I can see an early Eagles field goal, then a couple of TDs in garbage time.

Vivek: Four field goals and two touchdowns = 26 points = 30-1

Al: I'll take the 300-1 odds that Philly ends up with 9 points. If they can only manage three field goals, I'll win this whole thing with one bet.

Super Bowl XXXIX -- Double Result


1st Half: Patriots, Game: Eagles 6-1
1st Half: Eagles, Game: Patriots 3-1
1st Half: Tie, Game: Patriots 12-1
1st Half: Tie, Game: Eagles 15-1
Patriots win 1st Half & Game 5-8
Eagles win 1st Half & Game 7-2

Ian: Patriots, all the way.

Vivek: Pats, Pats

Al: 5-8? I can't do that. 1st half tie, Patriots win at 12-1.

Cross Sport Props (Courtesy of Sportsbook.com)

L.J. Smith Receiving Yards -3.5 (-115)
Dirk Nowitzki Points & Rebounds +3.5 (-115)

Ian: Dallas is playing at Toronto, so you have to love their chances at a big offensive game. Dirk's getting 3.5 pts and rebounds against L.J. Smith receiving yards? That surprises me. Dirk should be good for at least 40 combined. I'm going with my favorite NBA player.

Vivek: It's not that much of a no-brainer. Figure a 25/10 day for Dirk, and throw in the 3.5 points for good measure. I think L.J. can top 40.

Al: I love Dirk, but I have to go with L.J. I predicted earlier that L.J. would top 43.5 receiving yards. Dirk would have to put up a line of at least 30/10 to beat that. Last year, Dirk averaged 25.5 and 9.5 against Toronto.

Freddie Mitchell Longest Reception -4.5 (-115)
NC/FSU Made 3pt FGs +4.5 (-115)

Ian: Now here's a bet you probably have no clue on. I'm gonna go with NC/FSU 3pt FGs +4.5. Why? Because if T.O. is playing on Sunday, and Pinkston and Greg Lewis are deep threats, then how far down the field is Freddie actually gonna get? Not very far.

Vivek: So I did some quick Math. UNC averages just over 8 treys made per game, while FSU adds another 4.5. I'll take the three pointers plus 4.5 instead of Mitchell's longest reception.

Al: So we're talking about 17 yards? We all said Freddie was going to have a reception longer than 19 yards twenty pages ago. Over.

David Givens Receiving Yards +15.5 (-115)
Vijay Singh 4th Round Score -15.5 (-115)

Ian: Of course we have to include Vijay "Vivek is my cousin" Singh. But I'm going with David Givens receiving yards. Givens could easily reach 60, and Vijay should be good for less than 76. He'd better be, since he's starting for my fantasy golf team. Oh, and by the way, a word of advice: NEVER do fantasy golf. It's awful.

Vivek: Oh come on, I love fantasy golf. What's more exhilerating than the rush from seeing Ryuji Imada's third round score in the FBR Open. I'll take Givens plus the points.

Al: Crap, I forgot to pick my fantasy golf team for this week. Damn Super Bowl getting in the way of things. Vijay's going to put up something in the high 60's. So, Givens needs to get 50-55 to take this. I said he'd be under 56.5 earlier, but I'll hedge my bets slightly and pick Givens here, just in case he falls into that 50-55 range and I can win both.

Posted by: scramble on 03 Feb 2005

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