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19 Sep 2007

Scramble for the Ball: Pick Me Up

by Bill Barnwell


SCRAMBLE FOR THE BALL SPONSOR

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Do you hate your team already? Fantasy owners are reactionary by nature -- it's a control thing. If your team started off 0-2, even if they had the second-highest point total in the league each week, chances are that you're eyeing the waiver wire looking for goodies. Of course, good owners of 2-0 teams are doing the same thing. Making moves for the sake of changing a team up is almost never a good idea, but making calculated decisions based upon who's available through the non-optimal decisions of your opponents is sound, regardless of the week. I picked up Stephen Gostkowski this week in a league where I was previously starting Rob Bironas at kicker. My opponent gave up on Gostkowski because ... the Patriots score too many touchdowns. Advantage me. This isn't a move that's going to win me the league or anything, but it's likely to pick up 15 or 20 points over the course of 14 games. On the other hand, people who sprinted to their computer to grab Chris Brown enjoyed a 34-yard performance against the Colts this week.

While there's likely to be one or two obvious pickups on your league's waiver wire at the moment, let's take a look at the FFToday Power Waiver Wire for this week and examine whether the most frequently added players are likely to be good fits for your fantasy roster.

  • DeShawn Wynn, GB: Wynn showed up last week in the figurative defenestration of the hope of Giants fans worldwide. After only touching the ball twice in Week 1, Wynn gained 50 yards on 10 carries and, most importantly, scored two late touchdowns in Week 2. Furthermore, the Green Bay Press-Gazette is reporting that Wynn's likely to see more carries and could replace Brandon Jackson as the team's starting running back. On the other hand, if you watched the Giants game, you saw a guy who bounced untouched through holes multiple times, and was up against a Giants defense that had been mercilessly picked apart all game, eight yards at a time. Furthermore, Vernand Morency is still lurking as the likely starter once he returns from a nagging knee complaint. Wynn's likely to see ten carries next week, and against the Chargers rush defense, don't expect a prodigious output. He's not likely to develop into a player worthy of a roster spot.
  • Derek Anderson, CLE: Can he play the Bengals every week? It's amazing how a guy can go from fantasy afterthought, owned by friends and family and only the ones amongst both who love him the most, to must-have fantasy player. I think the Browns can have a good offense this year, but Anderson's not someone you'll need to have on your roster unless you're in the deepest leagues and/or a two-QB league. He's got Oakland, Baltimore, New England, and Miami coming up before the bye -- if Brady Quinn isn't starting by then, you'll be able to grab Anderson after whatever owner's signed him now has gotten sick of waiting for the 500-yard day to come.
  • Shaun McDonald, DET: McDonald somehow leads the Lions in receiving (he's got 13 catches for 161 yards and one touchdown) after two weeks, despite being projected to be the fourth wideout coming into 2007. Calvin Johnson, Mike Furrey, and Roy Williams have all gotten plenty of catches, but McDonald's still somehow ahead of them all. How the heck does that happen? Well, for one, McDonald's caught 76 percent of the passes thrown to him -- that'll come down. On the other hand, Mike Martz doesn't really employ the fourth wideout in his offensive scheme. Starting with the first Greatest Show on Turf team of 1999 and looking at the Martz offenses since then, their fourth wideouts have never done much -- the Rams teams saw their fourth guy average 31 catches, 351 yards, and a couple of touchdowns each year. The Lions themselves used four- or five-wideout sets 22 percent of the time in 2006, second in the league, but they rarely threw to those extra wideouts. In addition, McDonald never showed this sort of ability when he was in the Rams offense under Martz. If he keeps putting these numbers up for two more weeks, I'll be a believer, but the evidence points to this being an aberration.
  • Jeff Reed, PIT: The man who can't keep it in kicked four field goals last week against Buffalo. That's a nice haul, but it's not indicative of anything beyond some poor third down performance by Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's schedule is pretty easy until late in the season, so if you don't have much in the way of kicking, you might want to grab Reed. Don't dump your kicker expecting to get 11 points a week out of him, though.
  • Joe Jurevicius, CLE: Jurevicius is part of the rush to grab all things Browns after last week; like I mentioned with Anderson, though, Jurevicius doesn't get to play the Bengals every Sunday. He's got four very good defenses coming up, and while he could have decent games, his chances aren't that great relative to whoever you'd be cutting him for. Don't bother.
  • Nick Folk, DAL: He's a kicker. See Reed, but ignore the defenses part.
  • Wes Welker, NE: The Patriots have been using Welker as their matchup gizmo, where he makes linebackers without a prayer of covering him look silly (when the Patriots play the Giants in Week 17, I predict Welker catches 74 passes). Donte' Stallworth has mostly faded into oblivion, and Welker has established himself as the No. 2 guy and a player who will see more snaps than I expected when I wrote about him earlier this year. The Patriots passing attack won't be this good all year, but Welker's going to see enough balls to be a useful No. 3 guy in most leagues. I'd stash him on your roster if he's still available.
  • Sammy Morris, NE: Morris split time with Laurence Maroney, getting 10 carries for 51 yards and scoring a touchdown last week. It's a confluence of two things: Primarily, the Patriots were ahead all game against the Chargers, and were running the ball a little bit more than they might normally. Secondly, Bill Belichick is clearly still not comfortable with Laurence Maroney being a full-time back. Whether that's because of his shoulder or his pass-blocking is hard to say, but Morris and Kevin Faulk are going to play bigger roles on this team than might've been anticipated before the season. There are worse last guys to have on your roster than Morris as far as playing time goes.
  • Matt Schaub, HOU: Well, first and foremost, Andre Johnson's participation this week is in doubt due to a sprained PCL. If Johnson's out, the Texans passing attack becomes desultory and ironic. In addition, the Texans face several good defenses over the next few weeks (Miami, Jacksonville, San Diego, and Oakland before their Week 10 bye). Schaub's not likely to be a viable fantasy starter in anything but the largest leagues. Oh, and for those people who don't believe quarterbacks have anything to do with their sack rates? Schaub's been sacked twice in 52 dropbacks this year.
  • Jeff Garcia, TB: Garcia's rise this week came from a excellent game against the Saints, where he averaged a whopping 15.2 yards per attempt and threw two scores. His next five weeks also reveal some middling defenses: St. Louis, Carolina, Indianapolis, Tennessee, and Detroit before a Week 8 trip to Jacksonville. Garcia's the most likely of the quarterbacks on this list to be successful over the next six or seven weeks. Add him to your roster.

Loser League

A week without negative performances in the Loser League is depressing. More suck, please.

Quarterbacks: He may have avoided the indignity of Quick Reads, but Josh McCown couldn't avoid the cheers of the Loser League faithful. His 3 this week paced all quarterbacks. Alex Smith was right behind him at 4, while Rex Grossman and Tarvaris Jackson were the only other players in single digits. That's actually a good week for those two.

Running Backs: Not many people have him on their roster, but Justin Fargas' lone point was the worst of Week 2 at halfback. Among more commonly-owned players, Deuce McAllister made a return to his old stomping grounds with a 2, and while people have written off their big dreams for Tatum Bell, his companion with three points was Week 1's must-have, Chris Brown.

Wide Receivers: Five people paced the league with a single point: Lee Evans, Arnaz Battle, Eric Moulds, Hank Baskett, and Ronald Curry. Evans is the runner-up for Loser League MVP so far, with one point in two weeks.

Kickers: The Losingest Loser of the Week for Week 2 is Saints' kicker Olindo Mare, who balanced two extra points with a missed field goal for a smooth 0. Missing from 38 is a good way to get "washed up" talk circulating around a team that needs a scapegoat at the moment. Sebastian Janikowski is the Loser League MVP, as two points only got him up to -1 for the season. Of course, he doesn't get credit for the field goal he hit that Mike Shanahan got waved off with his geniusosity. Nate Kaeding also only had 2.

Check out the Football Outsiders comics archive and Jason’s wacky Gil Thorp blog.

Keep Choppin' Wood Award

The award was lost in airport luggage Week 1, but found it in time to give the Week 2 KCW Award to the Detroit Lions' medical staff. I'll pass on the lecture, but suffice to say, allowing your concussed quarterback back on the field isn't worth the win, let alone Jon Kitna's brain and future health. The fact that Kitna's praising God for the recovery excuses nothing. This was an incredibly disappointing decision and an indicator of how little the NFL's new concussion policy will affect the reality of players returning from concussions far too early.

Best Bets

1-2 last week, 3-3 overall

Well, that wasn't good. Big favorites didn't do well last week, as the people who said the Bears offense wasn't good enough to win by two touchdowns were right. Unfortunately, there are still some appetizing favorites this week.

Indianapolis (-6) over HOUSTON

I have no idea what Houston's going to do for offense against Indianapolis without Andre Johnson. I like Owen Daniels, but he isn't a one-man passing game. Houston beat Indianapolis in Texas last year in Week 16, but the Colts were generally struggling around that time period before they put it together come playoff time. The five other games between the two teams over the past three years saw the Colts win by nine or more points each time.

TAMPA BAY (-4) over St. Louis

This is a bet almost solely for the projection system.

WASHINGTON (-4) over New York Giants

I may bet against the Giants every week. I've seen nothing yet defensively that says they're going to play a good Redskins team close at home. Nothing. Chris Cooley may catch a pass on every down of every offensive series of every drive.


For the next few weeks, we'll also be presenting a Best Bet from the Scramble sponsor, Doc's Sports Odds. You can get a free week of winning NFL picks from Doc's Sports Handicapping Service by calling 1-866-238-6696 or e-mailing service@docsports.com with "Free Football Outsider" in the subject line.

This week's Doc's Sports Best Bet is Indianapolis (-6) over Houston. No Andre Johnson means no chance for the Texans. Houston's value will never be greater -- thanks to a pair of blowouts over shaky opponents -- but the Colts are still the class of the division. Indianapolis is 10-3 ATS as a September road favorite and 9-1 ATS as a road favorite with revenge. We're below a key betting number and with 60 percent of Houston's pass offense on the sideline with a sprained knee, the Texans will be outmanned. Houston's weakness is its safeties and Manning will take advantage en route to a statement victory.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 19 Sep 2007

54 comments, Last at 25 Sep 2007, 1:30pm by Matt

Comments

1
by Oswlek (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 4:22pm

Bill,

Sammy Morris was always going to be an important part of NE's offense. It has nothing to do with any negative about Maroney, it just has to do with BB liking to keep guys fresh (whenever possible) and utilize different skills.

Maroney does need to be a little more decisive, but that isn't the biggest reason why he give way to Morris. BB has always liked Morris and tried to get him when he was a FA before. Morris was always going to get 5-10 carries a week.

2
by Adam B. (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 4:23pm

Have Kevin Curtis as my #4 WR in a then-team keeper league where we start three (and Colston's one of those three). Is it time to give up on Curtis for one of ...

Randle El
Jurevicius
Avant
Battle
Roydell Williams
Toomer
Northcutt

3
by FreeBillBelichick (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 4:24pm

Lee Majors:Lee Evans::Cesar Romero:Cesar Chavez.

4
by scott (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 4:28pm

Your point about Jeff Garcia is well-taken...but would you recommend picking up him or Jason Campbell, another (I think) FO favorite?

Garcia is more experienced, but I worry about his lack of weapons beyond the ageless J Galloway. Campbell is raw, but seems to have better weapons.

5
by Disco Stu (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 4:52pm

Chris Cooley might outscore entire teams this week.

6
by Spike (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 4:57pm

Don't forget that fantasy juggernaut, the Houston D. After two weeks, they're riding high and ready to shut down anyone. Add add add for week three.

Speaking as someone who picked up three of the guys Bill profiled (and not Houston, not really), it would be interesting to know more about weekly DVOA match-ups for their roles. How does the Buffalo D do against Welker's area of the field?

7
by mawbrew (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 5:02pm

Picked up Welker, dumped Lee Majors-Evans. Have both Moss and Welker now. Brady season-ending injury must be just around the corner.

8
by M (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 5:13pm

Running Backs - Maroney, Marshawn Lynch, or Tatum Bell this week?

Wide Receivers - Santonio Holmes, Mark Clayton, or Dallas Clark?

Personally, I am leaning toward starting Maroney and Clark. But any advice would be helpful.

9
by DB (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 5:20pm

RE #2 : 6 of one, half a dozen of the other on all those guys. Philly's likely to be better in the long run, but I don't know if Curtis picks up more points.

RE #8 : I'd go with Maroney based on matchups, and Holmes based on loving the Steelers.

My turn :
Witten or Crumpler?
LenDale White or Marion Barber III?
LenDale White or Ronnie Brown or Cadillac Williams? (different league than White/Barber)

Thanks!

10
by billsfan (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 5:28pm

"If Johnson’s out, the Texans passing attack becomes desultory and ironic."

Well that's something you don't hear every week.

11
by Nathan (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 5:34pm

Pick 4 RB's to start this week

Westbrook
Carnell Williams
Derick Ward
Jammal Lewis
MJD
Benson
Tatum Bell
Lendale White
DeShawn Wynn

So far I'm thinking the top 4 listed.

12
by Nathan (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 5:35pm

Also, any trade offer suggestions I could make with that many RB's? I could lose a few and be fine.

13
by jack (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 5:53pm

Fortunately, Brady, Gore, and the Pats D saved my bacon last week, but Stallworth, V Davis, R Brown and MJD are killing me. I have one of the lowest scoring teams in the (12 team) league. Is it time to give up on any of these guys? If I drop Stallworth and/or Brown, I can pick up Shaun McDonald, Randle El, Drew Carter, Hurd, Stokley, Engram, or Booker.

If I drop Davis, I can pick up Spaeth, Lee, or Pope. I don't guess I'm ready to give up on MJD yet, but I wish he would get in gear.

Sorry to post these questions here but I can't get into the Fantasy board.

14
by tanner \'08 (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 6:06pm

To my fellow Lee Evans owners: gangland-style, or execution-style? Also let's coordinate our alibis.

15
by MM (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 6:34pm

Who would be a better RB#3/#4 - Ladell Betts or Chris Brown?

My RB core consists of the high-flying duo of MJD and Reggie Bush as well as Cadillac.

16
by cjfarls (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 6:37pm

Okay -
Kinda got screwed in my Fantasy draft hoping to pick up Green Bay late, then missed 'em by one draft slot... so now am streaming along week to week with the drags left behind... thought I was gonna be okay until Cincy killed me last week (not only did I get their egg, but my opponent had B.Edwards... aarrgh!)

What is my best bet for week 3:
Miami, NO, Atlanta, Cincy, Cleveland, NYJ, NYG or Detriot... yes, I know I'm screwed.

Alternatively I can trade Brandon Jackson for Tampa Bay or Houston... I have S.Jackson, R. Bush, & Barber as RBs so the chances of Jackson getting off my bench are slim.

Suggestions?

17
by asg (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 6:55pm

OK, someone has given up on Carolina's defense in my league. Assuming I can get them with a waiver claim, do I start them (vs Atl) or Indianapolis (@ AJ-less Houston)?

18
by TheDudeAbides (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 6:57pm

Bill's analysis of Shaun McDonald is interesting and probably ultimately correct but may be misleading. Starting with the 1999 Greatest Show on Turf season and going through the present, Martz's 4th receivers haven't averaged much (nor have any 4th receivers in the NFL) but the picture is quite different when looking at years in which Martz actually had a good 4th receiver (I wrote my PFP 2008 writers contest entry on this and then shelved it because it was really more about old Rams teams than about the 2007 Lions).

Now, it's easy to define having a good 4th WR as having a 4th WR with good stats, which is circular, but if you take a look at 1999-2001, the Rams 3rd and 4th WRs not only put up great conventional stats, but their DVOAs (especially Proehl's) are through the roof. So if you choose specific players as representing quality WR3/WR4 combos, (Hakim and Proehl, before they left and then wait until Curtis and McDonald develop) you can determine when the Rams had good 4th WRs without making such a circular argument.

If you use 1999, 2000, 2001 (Hakim/Proehl years) and 2004, 2005 (McDonald/Curtis years), you find that the 4th receiver went for 349-0, 441-4, 374-3, 421-4, 523-0. Still not eye-popping, but a lot higher than Bill's numbers and pretty incredible for WR4.

Moreover, you'd find that the 4th receiver was not always who you'd expect. In 2001, after two years of being WR4 and with Hakim still on the team, Proehl went for 563 and 5 which would obviously be of fantasy value against certain matchups. In 2004 Curtis was WR4 but the next year with the exact same personnel he finished with 801 and 6 which is very fantasy worthy.

The real wild card is not a WR at all. During these five seasons when Martz had a legitimate WR4, they were actually the 5th receiving option. Marshall Faulk led the team in receptions twice during that time period and finished 2nd, 3rd, 3rd in yardage from 1999-2001 and during the 2004 and 2005 seasons Faulk and Jackson combined to finish with more yardage than both the WR3 and WR4.

(As an aside: During the seasons where Martz had 4 quality WRs to work with, his quarterbacks threw for 4550, 5492, 4850, 4600, and 4300 yards, despite the fact that significant injuries repeatedly hit the QB position.)

Conclusions: 1) When Martz has a quality WR4, he throws the ball to him, even if he's really the 5th option. 2) Lacking a Marshall Faulk-type player, the WR4 may get even more targets. 3) Due to potential injury or ascension past Mike Furrey, Shaun McDonald may not end up as WR4. 4) If you have any faith at all in Kevin Jones, trade for him now, especially in PPR leagues.

19
by asg (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 7:02pm

#2: I'd go with Avant.

#8: Maroney and Holmes (but honestly Holmes vs. Clark is a toss-up).

#9: Crumpler, Barber, and Cadillac (that Saints matchup is looking better now).

#11: I'd go with MJD over Lewis this week. Definitely try to deal Bell and/or Benson.

#13: I'd give Davis another couple of weeks before giving up, but definitely dump Stallworth. On that list I'd go for Randle El.

#15: Betts, Betts, Betts. He's an injury lotto ticket and Brown is guaranteed to wear down.

#16: Gulp... I'd go with Miami and hope for the best. If you can trade Jackson for the Tampa defense I'd do it.

20
by LTA (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 8:15pm

Quick question from someone who's never played fantasy football before this year. I'm in a 12 team league and I couldn't make the draft, so I did an autodraft to pick my team. The autodraft gave me the Chicago and Baltimore defenses. Is there any reason to keep two defenses or should I drop one? The league is really deep, so the best available free agents right now are probably Randle El at WR and Sammy Morris at RB.

21
by Shylo (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 8:20pm

Lee Evans isn't my problem anymore - I sold him low for Marshawn Lynch.

22
by Adam B. (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 8:21pm

LTA: Keep the Bears, trade the Ravens. You'll get real value for them.

23
by jtp (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 8:25pm

I took Anthony Gonzales of the Colts as my 3rd WR in a 12 team league, on the theory that the Colts 3rd WR would see some action given how strong that offense is. But so far Gonzales hasn't done much of anything and I'm wondering if I should hang onto him or should I drop him and pick up Randle El as a free agent. I'm still a little nervous about Jason Campbell as a QB and I don't know if Randle El will stay the number 2 in Washington. I also don't want to drop Gonzales and have him all of the sudden become a part of the Colts explosive offense. Any opinions?

24
by asg (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 8:45pm

#23: I'd go with Randle El. Campbell showed a lot of arm and good accuracy on Monday night and the previous week (his line notwithstanding), and Manning isn't going to trust a rookie nearly as much when his other options are so solid.

25
by Kyle (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 9:28pm

"I’ve seen nothing yet defensively that says they’re going to play a good Redskins team close at home. Nothing."

A good writer always strives for an economy of words:

"I’ve seen nothing yet defensively. Nothing."

See? Fixed :)

26
by Zac (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 9:30pm
27
by starzero (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 9:51pm

qb: brady or manning (somehow i got rivers and cutler too, but no one will trade for them).

i'm hoping to replace michael pittman with derrick ward, and josh scobee with wes welker, off waivers. i also have slevin young and bernard berrian. i'm gonna start adrian peterson, reggie wayne, and calvin johnson. i get another rb and a rb/wr. what do i do?

oh, and jacksonville d/st or green bay?

28
by jim's apple pie (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 11:11pm

Wow, I don't know what to do with my team this week. I've got a lot of interesting choices to make:

1) Stay with Chicago (playing Dallas) or go with Carolina (at Atlanta)? My initial reaction was to stick with the best D but Joey hasn't done much with the Atlanta O ...

2) Stick with Marshawn Lynch (against NE) or go with Betts (who gets to play NYG, but had few carries last week)?

3) Keep Boldin in (against the Baltimore D) or sub him out for Ronald Curry (going against the porous Cleveland secondary)?

Normally, I don't ask for advice, but I really don't know which way to go for any of these situations. I guess my questions boil down to: is it usually better to stay with the better player in a bad matchup or go with a marginal player in a good matchup?

Any help would be appreciated!

29
by The McNabb Bowl Game Anomaly (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 11:18pm

Re: 27

Trade Brady for a better RB or top WR.

What's the point of having both?

30
by Mark (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 11:18pm

has anyone ever heard of smartmonies?

31
by lionsbob (not verified) :: Wed, 09/19/2007 - 11:20pm

The Lions used 4 WRs only 22% of the time last season...because for a while Josh McCown was their 3rd WR. As previously mentioned-the Lions have 4 legitmate WRs on their team.

But yeah, once we get KJ back (probably too early and he will be hurt again soon) that will take a bite of McDonald's production.

as well-if the Lions face a strong run defense, they are throwing it 50 times-they did not even attempt a running game against the Vikings.

32
by Christina (not verified) :: Thu, 09/20/2007 - 12:48am

Two questions:
Start 2 RBs out of: Addai, Sammy Morris, Ladell Betts, and MJD. I'm leaning towards Addai and Morris.
Start 3 WRs out of: Driver, Galloway, Hines Ward, and Calvin Johnson.

Thanks!

33
by Chad Gerson (not verified) :: Thu, 09/20/2007 - 5:05am

Bill, you suggested picking up Garcia, because he's facing middling defenses soon--among which you included the Colts. Okay the Colts are the greatest defense, but they've allowed 2 offensive touchdowns in 2 weeks, held Tennessee's running game and Vince Young in check, and are coming up with big plays in important situations (4th and 2; also sacking Young on the Titans' final drive). They're the 7th best defense in ESPN's fantasy leagues. I think they deserve a little more credit right now than they're getting.

#6--you think Houston's D is going to stop Peyton Manning and Joseph Addai? Especially when they are going to be on the field all day because the Texans' O is going to be anemic? Thank again, brother.

#23--Even as a Colts fan, I say go with Randle El over Gonzalez. Gonzalez showed great skills against the Titans, including on the overturned catch (the pass wasn't intended for him but he almost scooped it anyway). The problem is that Marvin, Reggie and Dallas are all going to get the ball more than he will. You're right about Randle El receiving the ball from a quarterback of much, much lower standing than Peyton (as all quarterbacks are, save for Brady, which is a tie). But for now Randle El is still the better choice.

34
by Chad Gerson (not verified) :: Thu, 09/20/2007 - 5:21am

On 33, I meant to say the Colts areN'T the greatest defense... but they still deserve some credit.

35
by Coach Tuesday (not verified) :: Thu, 09/20/2007 - 8:08am

For those of you down on Evans, remember that he is a notoriously slow starter - go back and look at his stats through the first few weeks last season.

That said, I've been offered Manning and Evans for Young and Lynch, thoughts?

36
by Dash (not verified) :: Thu, 09/20/2007 - 9:31am

#2 - I'd keep Curtis.

#8 - Maroney & Clark

#9 - Witten, Barber, and Williams

#13 - dump Stallworth, pick up Randle El

#15 - Betts

#16 - Trade Jackson for Tampa

#22 - Trade BAL DEF

#23 - I'm in the minority that would say to keep Gonzalez

#27 - Agree w/ #29 - take GB Def

#28 - Go with CHI. I'd say Lynch, and play the matchup with Curry.

#32 - I'd stay with MJD over Morris, and Driver, Galloway, & Johnson as WR's.

Now to my question: My RB2 position is mediocre in a 10-team, PPR flex league (I start Branch @ flex). Do I start: R. Brown, F. Taylor, Norwood, Betts, or DeShaun Wynn? Do any of these players have any trade value to get me a better RB2 option?

37
by mawbrew (not verified) :: Thu, 09/20/2007 - 9:31am

Good advice on Derek Anderson. He still looks like the same guy as last year - terrific arm but easily fooled. It's almost like he doesn't even see the defensive players sometimes. Cincy didn't have the defensive horses to run the games necessary to confuse him. That's not the case this week. Don't be surprised at 3-4 picks this week vs. Oakland

38
by Sam B (not verified) :: Thu, 09/20/2007 - 9:45am

recievers: two of Holmes, Edwards, Stallworth, Avant and Matt Jones?

39
by mawbrew (not verified) :: Thu, 09/20/2007 - 9:52am

Re: 37

I'd agree with the article's POV on Wynn (and can't believe he would be of much trade value). The rest of the guys on your list have potential but could also bust. I would doubt that in a ten team league you will be able to find an obvious upgrade that someone would be willing to trade.

For now, I'd go with Taylor vs. a Denver D that hasn't played the run that well. Longer term, you might pray that Portis' knee issues resurface.

40
by centrifuge (not verified) :: Thu, 09/20/2007 - 12:26pm

Is it really worth jettisoning Evans already? He didn't suddenly become absolutely terrible - there's still a good player in there somewhere. Right? Right?

Oh, and I have to start 3 receivers out of Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston, Darrell Jackson, Wes Welker, and Braylon Edwards. Thoughts?

41
by hector (not verified) :: Thu, 09/20/2007 - 12:50pm

I'm not saying it means anything, but here's Lee Evans's career against New England: 13-241-0 in six games, all losses. In four of the games, he's been at 25 yards or less. The Bills have scored 69 points, total, in those six games. I still like Evans as a buy-low if the price is slashed, but wait one week, then try it.

Of course when he hits a 79-yard touchdown on the third snap Sunday, this all means nada.

42
by Spenserhawk (not verified) :: Thu, 09/20/2007 - 2:02pm

Simple question:

Braylon Edwards or Santonio Holmes?

43
by JoshuaPerry (not verified) :: Thu, 09/20/2007 - 4:17pm

Man, this guy isn't kidding being 0-2 and scoring the 2nd most points is horrible, and describes my team
I've scored 146 and 115 pts in losses. I've got Edge, Lamont Jordan, Marvin Harrison, TO, Viniteri, Derrick Ward, Wes Welker, and Im still dying for a win In a pt/rec format, which most leagues are, Welker is a quality start at 18pts/wk.

44
by Zac (not verified) :: Thu, 09/20/2007 - 11:55pm

Alright, Bill's always talking about how important the matchups are. So do I start Manning against the 5th ranked Houston passing def, or do I start Hasselbeck against the Cincinnati passing def that Derek Anderson shredded last week?

And do I start Steven Jackson against DAVE's 9th ranked TB defense, or Cadillac Williams against DAVE's 28th ranked STL defense?

And do I risk starting Javon Walker against Jacksonville? Mark Clayton and Muhammad are my backups, and the top free agents according to fftoday are Derrick Mason, Jerry Porter, Reggie Brown and Shaun McDonald.

45
by JoshuaPerry (not verified) :: Fri, 09/21/2007 - 3:55am

#44
1.You start Manning, are you new at this fantasy football thing?
2. You start Walker, STUD, he's averaged 9 catches and 100yrds this year, surely they'll hit him in the End Zone this week.
3. Cadillac, until further notice, Steven isn't good.

46
by cjfarls (not verified) :: Fri, 09/21/2007 - 10:53am

Okay, pick 2:
R. Bush, S. Jackson, M.Barber

I'd say Barber has earned a start after the sucking Bush/Jackson have done this year, but he's up against Chicago's DEF, who made SD's line & LT look bad...

Re:35 Which Manning?
Re:38 Holmes & Edwards
Re:40 Fitz, Colston, Welker
Re:42 Holmes
Re:44 Manning & Walker for sure... don't know about S.Jackson (see my conundrum)

BTW: Regarding my DEF question earlier... I got jacksonville & A.Peterson(Chi) in exchange for B.Jackson... think I got a steal, but they had D.Williams as their #2 RB, so were almost as desperate as I was ;-)

47
by Spike (not verified) :: Fri, 09/21/2007 - 11:55am

#33: Sorry, my suffusive praise for the HOU D was poking fun at people who add players without looking at match-ups. There's no way someone should play HOU this week.

#46: I'd go S. Jackson & M. Barber, given Barber's additional carries near the goal line and Jackson's bigger role in the offense. It hurts that Steven Jackson only has two more FFL points this year than FRISMAN Jackson, though.

48
by Steve (not verified) :: Fri, 09/21/2007 - 1:45pm

I've hit rock bottom in my league due to my first three picks being Steven Jackson, Drew Brees, and Willis McGahee...

a. Does Brees breakout vs. Tennessee this week or should I choose Hasselbeck vs. Cincy?

b. I traded for Rudi, I need to choose two out of three between him Willis vs. Zona and Stevie vs. TB?

c. I'm definitely starting Santana vs. Giants, benching Fitzgerald against the Ravens, and I benched Braylon last week (D'OH!). Two out of three Braylon vs. Oakland (huge potential), McDonald vs Philly (???), Roydell vs. 'Aints (burned last two weeks)?

Thanks

49
by Spenserhawk (not verified) :: Fri, 09/21/2007 - 2:28pm

#48:

Go with Hasselback. I think Brees will bounce back but I'm not sure about this week especially after the Titans kept Manning in check.

Rudi is a must start and you can't not start Jackson. Way too much potential there...he will break out before long so just be patient.

I know Fitz is playing the Ravens but he's too good to have benched...you hvae to play your stars unless they are injured regardless of the defense. Go with Santana, Fitz, and Braylon.

50
by Tyler (not verified) :: Sat, 09/22/2007 - 8:15pm

While having pretty good running back depth, I'm toiling at 0-2 due to an insane amount of under performing. I need to pick 3 of these 6, and I'm listing them in the order I'm currently thinking...
Lamont Jordon vs Cle, Thomas Jones vs Mia, Adrian Peterson (Min) vs GB, MJD vs Den, Reggie Bush vs Ten and Cadillac Williams vs StL
It seems like everyone is saying MJD is going to have a big week, but after getting nothing for two weeks and my other guys having decent matchups he's currently 4th in my rankings. What do you guys think?

51
by ShaunyMac (not verified) :: Sun, 09/23/2007 - 11:22am

Shaun McDonald led all WRs in receiving yards in the preseason (if memory serves me right).

Since coming to the Lions, he's shown a mastery of the Martz offense like I haven't seen out of any of the other receivers. He seems to always be in the right spot and is always bailing out the QB.

I think he's a legit fantasy WR, and I think he already passed Mike Furrey, that guy who had, what, 98 catches last season. Remember he was ahead of Furrey in StL

52
by Zac (not verified) :: Sun, 09/23/2007 - 1:08pm

Re: 45. Bill has emphasized that starting your studs no matter the matchup is not the best idea. So I'm still trying to figure out what that means.

53
by Zac (not verified) :: Sun, 09/23/2007 - 9:14pm

Re: 52. And by the way, Hasselbeck outscored Manning. So I don't think I'll be listening to JoshuaPerry anymore.

54
by Matt (not verified) :: Tue, 09/25/2007 - 1:30pm

Good advice on Jeff Reed. Bill was dead right that Reed would not get 11 points this week.