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» Week 11 DVOA Ratings

DVOA has finally climbed on board the Wentz Wagon! The Eagles move into the No. 1 spot, but they aren't the only strong, well-balanced team in the NFL this year. New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and the Los Angeles Rams make this one of the best seasons ever for multiple teams over 30% in DVOA, and Minnesota isn't far behind.

28 Dec 2016

Scramble for the Ball: Best Care Anywhere

by Bryan Knowles and Andrew Potter

Bryan: Welcome back to Scramble for the Ball, where the NFL playoffs are beginning to look like a M*A*S*H unit.

Andrew: Ah, the 4077th NFL playoffs, which is still one fewer than the number of offensive linemen the Vikings have employed this year.

Bryan: It feels like this season has seen more playoff-bound teams impacted by major injuries than normal -- Derek Carr, Rob Gronkowski, Jason Pierre-Paul, Desmond Trufant, Cameron Heyward, Sam Shields, Jamaal Charles, and I'm sure I'm forgetting a half-dozen other key injuries. Hawkeye and B.J. will have their hands full with this one. Your eventual Super Bowl champion might just be whoever can come up with the best contingency plans at crucial positions

Andrew: Scott will probably get to this when he covers the Adjusted Games Lost numbers in the offseason, but that feeling is kinda just that: last year, looking only at key players on contenders ahead of the wild-card round of the playoffs, Tom Brady had a high ankle sprain and Sebastian Vollmer had recently been placed on injured reserve with Nate Solder already long gone; Charles Tillman had just torn his ACL and Bene Benwikere had recently been lost for the year; Tyrann Mathieu had torn his ACL, Duane Brown torn his quad, Thomas Rawls broken his leg while filling in for the still-injured Marshawn Lynch; Le'Veon Bell was long since out for the year and backup DeAngelo Williams was hurt; Andy Dalton was out with a fractured thumb ... injuries are awful, but they happen every year.

Bryan: That's a fair point -- recency bias once again. Similarly, I have heard talk that this year, Week 17 is somewhat boring because the AFC is all locked up and there's not much to play for in the NFC, but it was a similar situation last year, with the NFC all locked up and not much to play for in the AFC.

Maybe, rather than focus on who isn't playing and what isn't going on, we should look at what Week 17 does mean, with two playoff spots up for grabs and significant seeding possibilities, as well as one of the wilder playoff scenarios possible.

Andrew: If you're referring to Tampa Bay, I'm not sure wild is the word. Remote, in the sense that Point Nemo is remote, might just about cover it.

Bryan: Any time you need six games to go your way in one week to make the playoffs, your hopes aren't looking good. When you need one of them to be a tie, you might as well start making golf reservations for January. Still, the Bucs are in with a chance, which is more than, say, Tennessee can say after last week!

Andrew: True, and if there was ever a year to be needing a crazy, outlandish, barely predictable sequence of events to come to pass ...

Bryan: This year has kind of taken us Through the Looking-Glass -- six impossible things before breakfast, and all that. That being said, I think we can both agree that we shouldn't spend too much time thinking about the Buccaneers' playoff chances, right?

Andrew: That seems safest. We can take a quick glance at each outcome, in order of likelihood. Let's be all uncontroversial and do it in seeding order, AFC first.

AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

Andrew: If New England wins in Miami, they're once again the top seed in the AFC. Where have we seen this before? Oh yes, last year, when the Patriots took a bizarre approach to neither playing their normal game nor resting their starters, ended up losing the top seed, and got Tom Brady hurt in the process. This year, I expect we'll see a bit more of a standard Patriots game, with Jimmy Garoppolo and perhaps even Jacoby Brissett ready nice and early to mop up if the game's a blowout.

Bryan: It's important to note that Miami, technically, has something to play for -- if everything falls right for them, they can slide up to the fifth seed and get a game in Houston rather than Pittsburgh, which would sound a bit more appetizing to me if I were Adam Gase right about now.

Andrew: They're probably going to have to beat the Steelers one way or the other though. Kansas City's a better team now than they were in the first half of the year, but the Chiefs were obliterated the last time they played in Pittsburgh so there's a good chance a fifth-seed Dolphins team would have to take a divisional round trip to Heinz Field. The one critical difference between playing them in the wild-card versus the divisional round, however, might be the health of Ryan Tannehill's knee.

Bryan: Tannehill is listed as "day to day" now, and the divisional round is more days away than the wild card round -- at some point, even a hobbled Tannehill gives you a better chance than Matt Moore, surely.

Andrew: "Day to day" is coachspeak at its least opaque. It just means if the game was today, he wouldn't be ready.

Bryan: Either way, even if the Dolphins do pull off the upset here, that doesn't necessarily mean great news for Miami, or bad news for New England. The Patriots still get home-field advantage if the Raiders fall in Denver, and the Dolphins are still stuck with the six seed if the Chiefs win down in San Diego. That's a couple of games between teams with something to play for and teams thinking about the offseason in the AFC West -- any chance of a surprise down there?

Andrew: That depends on two quarterbacks: Matt McGloin and Philip Rivers. The Chargers are one of those teams that can hang with almost anybody on their day, but will probably find a way to lose (often hilariously) regardless.

Bryan: When you can find a way to lose to the Browns, you can find a way to lose to anyone.

Andrew: Two missed fourth-quarter field goals will do it. That's "house!" on the Chargers' bad-loss Bingo! Card.

As for Oakland-Denver, nobody can really be sure what we'll get from Matt McGloin -- he has looked mostly adequate as a backup, but never with a supporting cast quite this good.

Bryan: Really, I think all four up-for-grabs seeds in the AFC are kind of a muddle; all three games have the potential to be close. I could see the Patriots blowing out the Dolphins and making everything kind of moot, and I could see all three games coming down to the wire, with the entire playoff picture remaining in flux until the very last seconds. I think, gun to head, I'd predict everything staying as it is right now, with the Patriots and Raiders as the top two seeds and the Chiefs ahead of the Dolphins in the wild card, but every possible outcome seems at least somewhat conceivable to me here. McGloin could have a Matt Flynn-like day in a short-term cameo appearance in Oakland; the Chargers are capable of doing anything; Dontari Poe could throw for 300 yards.

Andrew: McGloin channeling Matt Flynn seems the least likely of those possibilities, unless Denver's pass defense really has given up the ghost after what happened on Sunday night.

Bryan: A loss like that, ending your season, has the potential to be really demoralizing -- especially when it wasn't a very close one, like Baltimore losing to Pittsburgh at the very end. I have seen teams fail to show up for their last game after a performance like that.

But, that being said -- if you think that McGloin won't top the Broncos' secondary, do you think the Chiefs could steal the AFC West and a bye week? If they win and the Raiders fall, it's all theirs.

Andrew: How to metaphorically knife Raiders fans in the heart at the end of the best season they've had in over a decade? Yes, it's entirely possible, especially in Denver. If it was in Oakland, I'd expect the Raiders to win. The Broncos will want to give the home crowd something to shout about in the season finale, and denying the Raiders the division would be just the tonic.

Bryan: That would be a bad break for the Raiders, pun very sadly intended. To go from Super Bowl contenders to having to go on the road in the first week of the playoffs is a heck of a gut punch. Then again, they could always get bailed out by the Chargers, who I now predict will always do the opposite of what I predict them to do.

Andrew: Both AFC West playoff teams losing while New England crushes Miami would be just about the most depressing outcome imaginable for anybody who isn't a Patriots fan. Then the home teams will advance, Ben Roethlisberger will find a way to get hurt with the Steelers winning at Oakland in the divisional round, and it'll be Tom Brady versus Landry Jones for the AFC Championship.

Bryan: On a day when we lost both Carrie Fisher and Richard Adams, that sounds like exactly the sort of outcome we can expect. 2016, everyone!

Andrew: It doesn't bear thinking about. On then, to the NFC...

NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

Bryan: Despite having fewer teams with clinched playoff spots, I think the NFC seeding is a little more clear. Atlanta wins the second seed and a bye week if they beat New Orleans, or if both Green Bay beats Detroit and San Francisco beats Seattle. While I don't think Falcons fans should be counting too much on their ex-rival 49ers to give them a boost, I think they'll be able to handle business at home against the Saints without too much trouble.

Andrew: The last game between those two was a wild one, with a Drew Brees pick-six to Deion Jones ultimately providing the margin of victory. While even I don't remotely expect the Saints to win in Atlanta, Atlanta's best receiver is hobbled and their best cornerback is out, while New Orleans now has their best receiver back (though top cornerback Delvin Breaux has recently achieved the rare "IR'd twice in one season" double-hitter).

Bryan: "New Orleans' best cornerback" is something like "least painful bone to break" or "longest Alex Smith pass," right?

Andrew: Not in the case of Breaux, who is a legitimately good player. Your insinuation may yet prove true, however: that the best cornerback in the state of Louisiana does not play for the Saints.

Bryan: If the Saints find a way to start Tre'Davious White on Sunday, I'd love to see the loophole they used.

Even if the Saints do upset the Falcons, the Seahawks are going to grind the 49ers into a fine little powder -- that would give them the bye week. Detroit would somehow need both the Saints and 49ers to pull off upsets as 7-point-or-greater underdogs, which, you know. Isn't great.

Andrew: Right. So Dallas has the top seed wrapped up. If Atlanta wins at home to New Orleans, the Falcons are the second seed. If the Falcons lose and Seattle wins, Seattle is the second seed. If both lose and Detroit wins, Detroit is the second seed. Any of those three could end up seeded two, three, or four -- or in the case of Detroit, six, or even out of the playoffs altogether.

Bryan: They have flexed the Lions-Packers game to Sunday Night Football, which makes the most sense. According to DVOA, the Lions have no business being where they are, but they have gotten to this point via the magic and craziness of Matthew Stafford and his fourth-quarter comebacks, with an absolutely unsustainable string of great late performances.

Andrew: Please let that game end 0-0. Please let that game end 0-0. Please let that game end 0-0.

Bryan: Why the heck would you want that?

Andrew: If it's a tie, both are guaranteed a playoff place no matter what happens elsewhere. I have visions of Austria-Germany in the 1982 World Cup, the so-called Disgrace of Gijón game, in which the teams set up the result they both needed and then knocked the ball around contentedly with minimal effort for the rest of the match.

Bryan: Of course, in the '82 World Cup, the winner of that game didn't get to play their next game at home. Slightly different situation here.

Andrew: Sure, but both of my teams are long since eliminated. I'm left rooting for the humorous, entertaining outcomes (yes, I'm the guy who would be entertained by a 0-0 tie) instead of the actually realistic ones.

Bryan: In that case, you surely have to be putting your wacky, entertaining mojo on a tie over in Washington against New York, right? So Tampa Bay can go from down and out to playoff bound based on a tiebreaker over a team with two ties in one year?

Andrew: No, because a random tie allowing somebody completely unrelated into the playoffs isn't nearly as entertaining as envisioning Roger Goodell's head exploding while two teams rig a result live on national television. Brett Hundley versus Dan Orlovsky on Sunday night? Bring it on!

Bryan: There must be something in the water over there in the U.K. for you to be so enthralled by draws.

Andrew: It's not the tie itself. It's the implications! Both of our most enticing scenarios require a tie; I just think the later game is the more amusing possibility, especially if Washington does take care of business against the Giants.

Bryan: You would think that that would be one of the more "gimme" outcomes of the week -- a team with a clear win-and-in scenario without a fallback scenario against a team with nothing to play for that knows they have a wild-card game the week after -- and they get to play it at home, at that. You'd think, for narrative reasons alone, Washington would find a way to win this game, but we have seen teams fall in this situation before.

Andrew: Right. The beauty of the end-of-year games being divisional is that there's always a little extra edge, even for teams who have nothing to play for. Knocking Washington out of the playoffs would be a satisfying outcome for Giants fans, though I'm not sure how much players and coaches get into that stuff. It's not quite up to Ravens-Steelers standards for pitched battle rivalry.

Bryan: It'll probably depend a great deal on whether the Giants rest their starters, too. It's one thing to play a Giants team with Eli Manning and Odell Beckham; another thing entirely to go up against Josh Johnson with your season on the line.

Andrew: Not that that's a guarantee of anything either. Remember the infamous Mike Mularkey Buffalo Bills in a win-and-in situation losing to a Steelers team resting its starters? The backups are NFL players too! More to the point, the defense -- which is the strength of the Giants anyway -- can't exactly rest all 11 starters.

Bryan: It also isn't a binary option -- they could come out with all their starters playing, and pull them, or rotate them heavily, as the game goes along. It's the classic argument between avoiding something catastrophic like a Derek Carr-esque injury and coming into the playoffs with mythical "momentum," considering they just lost to the Eagles on Thursday. It's a tough spot for Ben McAdoo to be in.

Andrew: That raises another interesting point, though: the Giants are coming off a mini-bye, and have been preparing for this game two full days longer than Washington has. I think as the playoffs approach, momentum is more of a byword for routine: keeping the starters preparing as starters, in their comfortable starter habits. Being a divisional game makes that one hard to call.

If Washington does lose, Tampa Bay's scenario would already have been blown apart, in which case both the Lions and Packers are in the playoffs and they're now "just" playing for the division title. This is the oddity of having games at separate times; the stakes could be way lower then than now, or even considerably higher.

Bryan: That being said, the NFL was in a bit of a bind here. There weren't any games this week which are meaningful only in a vacuum -- everything was impacted by other games going on, elsewhere. As long as they've got that NBC Sunday Night contract, they've gotta pick something -- and an NFC North division battle is probably their best bet.

I know it's in Detroit, but it feels like Green Bay is playing great in recent weeks -- they're favored on the road, too. Does Detroit have one last win in them, or do the Packers come storming back to take the division?

Andrew: You're asking me to predict that? Does Davante Adams catch the two touchdowns Aaron Rodgers throws him, or does he drop them? I mean, all signs point to this being another Aaron Rodgers masterclass against a secondary probably missing its best cornerback, but Green Bay's receivers aren't exactly noted for their consistency.

Bryan: As long as the Lions don't try the Minnesota strategy of "ignoring the coach's orders and freelancing in the secondary," they have got a chance. That was one of the odder stories I've heard in a long time. It does make me wonder how much of Jordy Nelson's huge day against Minnesota was pure talent, and how much was against a secondary actively in revolt.

Andrew: By the sound of things, that story has been overblown a bit: it really comes down to 38-year-old Terence Newman trying to prove he can still do a job on the other team's top receiver on the opening drive, and Xavier Rhodes trying to cover for him. Still not great, obviously, but not the reason for Nelson's big day. The Lions largely failed to contain Dez Bryant, but Jordy Nelson at this point doesn't really belong in the same echelon as Dez Bryant. Graham Glasgow struggled in pass protection against Dallas, but he probably won't be snapping the ball directly to the feet of Kenny Clark à la Nick Easton.

Bryan: In Green Bay in September -- a lifetime ago, but still -- Rodgers threw for four touchdowns, and Nelson had more than 100 yards through the air. On the other hand, Stafford had a great day of his own as they rallied back from a 34-27 deficit, and Marvin Jones had more than 200 yards receiving. If past is prologue, we should be in for quite the aerial show on Sunday Night. Much more exciting than your lousy 0-0 tie.

Andrew: Plenty of time for excitement in the playoffs. It'll be fun to see who gets there though; just let's not lose any more key players while we do it.

Loser League Update

Quarterback: We just can't get rid of him! It's Ryan Fitzpatrick, back once again! Someone's angling for a spot on the All-Keep-Chopping-Wood Team. Bryce Petty went down midway through the game, and Fitzpatrick came on with his usual blend of ugly passes and poor decisions, leading to two interceptions and 2 loser league points. He'll be starting in Week 17, too!

Running Back: Thomas Rawls' day was cut short with a shoulder bruise, causing him to miss the entire second half of Seattle's loss to Arizona. He wasn't exactly lighting up the field before he left, however, finishing with 8 yards on eight carries. That's good for a big ol' goose egg.

Wide Receiver: A quartet of zeroes this week. Seth Roberts and Brian Quick simply failed to catch any passes, while Devin Funchess and Jeremy Maclin were each held to 9 yards receiving. Maclin managed that despite catching three passes -- such is the life as one of Alex Smith's wideouts.

Kicker: Sebastian Janikowski managed to miss two extra points against Indianapolis. The second was blocked, which was bad enough, but the first was just mishit, hooked wide. That's good for minus-7 points. Steven Hauschka's missed extra point and missed field goal landed him in negative numbers, as well.

Awards

Keep Choppin' Wood: In a year of constant injuries and abject failure along the Vikings offensive line, the absolute season lowlight was provided on Saturday by backup (well, backup-backup) center Nick Easton:

Easton, attempting to snap the ball to Sam Bradford in shotgun formation, instead managed only to nudge it back a yard along the ground and step back out of the way for Packers nose tackle Kenny Clark to fall on it. Fumble, recovered by the Packers; possibly the single worst play in a season full of bad plays for the Vikings front five.

Herm Edwards Award for Playing to Win the Game: This has been a lost season for both the (now-) 2-13 San Francisco 49ers and the 4-11 Los Angeles Rams, so when those two teams met on Saturday there was an understandable urge not to make the game last any longer than it had to. San Francisco scored a touchdown late in the fourth quarter, however, to potentially tie the game pending the extra point and force an overtime period that would benefit just about nobody. Chip Kelly, perhaps recognizing this, called for the rare two-point attempt with no downside for the 49ers. If it had been unsuccessful, the game would have been effectively over and the 49ers would have improved their chances of picking first in the draft. Instead, it was successful and the 49ers gained a morale-boosting second win of the season.

John Fox Award for Conservatism: The Buffalo Bills fired Rex Ryan yesterday after Saturday's defeat to the Matt Moore Miami Dolphins guaranteed the continuation of the longest current playoff drought in the NFL (17 seasons and counting). The once-boisterous Ryan left with barely a whimper, as evidenced by his abominably conservative fourth-down call in overtime of Saturday's loss. Tied at 31 with 4:09 left, facing fourth-and-2 from their own 41-yard line in a win-at-all-costs game (a tie would do the Bills no good whatsoever), Ryan sent out Colton Schmidt to punt the ball away to Miami. The net gain from the punt was 44 yards; on the very next play Jay Ajayi more that erased it with a 57-yard run in which the Bills somehow only had ten defenders on the field. That's not really the point, however; even a Dolphins three-and-out would have made this a terrible decision by a coach who needed the win as much as the franchise did. If you can't trust your offense to gain 2 yards in this sort of do-or-die situation, when can you trust it?

Mike Martz Award for Confusing Coaching: Not a ton of confusing coaching this week, but there was a play that would have had everyone yelling had it gone ever-so-slightly differently. With the AFC North on the line, the Steelers ran this play. You may have seen it on the highlight reel!

A great game-winning touchdown and all that, and the celebration began. However -- why is Antonio Brown running a crossing route short of the end zone with 14 seconds left and no timeouts? Brown's really good, but so is the Baltimore defense -- get stopped short of the end zone there, and time probably runs out before the Steelers can line up and either spike the ball or run another play. Brown was contacted at the one, too, and C.J. Mosley had a real shot at stopping that ball from breaking the plane. A dangerous, dangerous play call that worked out. Mike Tomlin won't get too much flak for that call, but he dodged a bullet there.

"Big Man On Campus" Fantasy Player of the Week: It's your fantasy playoffs, with just two games left to go on the week. Kansas City is driving for yet another touchdown, and Alex Smith is going to take you to victory. You've got Spencer Ware in your lineup as well -- as long as the Chiefs score a touchdown here, you're sure to get a piece of it and fantasy glory. Wait… what's this? Dontari Poe is lining up in the backfield? No! No! Nooooo!

The largest man ever to throw a touchdown pass, though I think we should get JaMarcus Russell back on the scale to check that one out.

Jon Snow (We Know Nothing) Lock of the Week

Once again this year, all picks are made without reference to FO's Premium picks, while all lines are courtesy of Bovada and were accurate as of time of writing.

Records so far:
Bryan: 8-6-1
Andrew: 4-9-2

Andrew: This week, I'm taking New York Giants (plus-8) at Washington, on condition that they don't rest their starters. I know, I know, the Giants have basically nothing to play for while Washington is win-and-you're-in for the playoffs, but here's the thing: the Giants have a really good defense, and Washington's best target (Jordan Reed) is ailing badly. Kirk Cousins does still have options, of course, but he's attacking a defense that hasn't had a game worse than -5.0% DYAR since Week 6 and has only allowed more than 20 points once since Week 9 (at Pittsburgh in Week 13). Eli Manning had a bad day at the office on Saturday, but Philadelphia's defense is considerably tougher than Washington's. I think the Giants keep this one close, even if Washington should eventually win what is, to them, almost a playoff for the playoffs.

Bryan: Don't tell Andrew, but I'm sneaking in at two in the morning to change my pick. I had picked Tennessee (minus-3) before, but got cold feet about taking a backup quarterback against a playoff team, even if it's a playoff team who comes out poorly in our metrics. I'm switching to Baltimore (plus-2.5) on the road in Cincinnati instead. The Ravens came within a yard of stopping the Steelers on Christmas day, and are better than a Bengals team that seems to have given up the ghost on the season. Even on the road, I'll take Baltimore.

Obituaries

At this point in the season, being alive for the playoffs is almost a binary state -- either you have a shot at making the postseason, or you're mathematically out. Two teams fell on Christmas Day, losing absolute must-win games and making their Week 17 performance essentially moot. The Ravens played the Steelers very close, but collapsed at the end in a quasi-AFC North championship matchup. The Broncos didn't play their division rivals close, being routed by the Chiefs. Both teams are now officially staying home this offseason.

We're going to add the Buccaneers to this list as well, even though they have the faintest of chances remaining. Needing six games to go their way would probably be enough to really say goodbye to Tampa Bay, but when one needs to be a tie, you're really up against the wall. Turns out, a two-game losing streak at the end of the season isn't great for your playoff odds. While they have some technical hope going into Week 17, it's more likely that the Lions and Packers get hit by a meteor and are both unable to participate in the playoffs than it is for the Bucs to get in on merit now.

For everyone else fighting for a playoff spot, congratulations! You made it to the end of the season with something to play for. Hard to ask for much more than that. For Washington, Detroit and Green Bay, this is your final countdown.

Football Outsiders doesn't answer fantasy questions on Twitter, so if you don't have a Premium subscription and access to the 24-hour Fantasy Answering Service, the Scramble mailbag is one way to get a Football Outsiders answer to your fantasy questions! Email us with fantasy questions, award suggestions, crazy videos, outlandish conspiracy theories, fat men scoring spectacular touchdowns, and other assorted flotsam and jetsam at scramble@footballoutsiders.com.

Posted by: Bryan Knowles and Andrew Potter on 28 Dec 2016

14 comments, Last at 02 Jan 2017, 10:27am by Athelas

Comments

1
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Wed, 12/28/2016 - 4:11pm

tomlin deserves flak for the way his squad used clock/TO/playcalls the whole last drive.

stupid is as stupid does. it's not lupus!
--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

2
by MilkmanDanimal :: Wed, 12/28/2016 - 4:14pm

going to write a greasemonkey script to just auto-translate every post of yours to "tomlin deserves flak" brb afk omgwtfbbq

3
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Wed, 12/28/2016 - 4:24pm

throw some shrimp on that barbie

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

4
by Jerry :: Wed, 12/28/2016 - 6:25pm

"...there's a good chance a fifth-seed Dolphins team would have to take a divisional round trip to Heinz Field."

If the Steelers and Dolphins survive the wild card round, Pittsburgh goes to play the 2 seed, while the Dolphins will visit #1. There can't be a divisional round game at Heinz Field.

6
by Andrew Potter :: Wed, 12/28/2016 - 6:37pm

You're absolutely right. I don't even know how I got to thinking that could happen. Almost everything I wrote in that paragraph is completely wrong. :/

7
by Jerry :: Wed, 12/28/2016 - 7:06pm

It happens.

And I would like to see the Lions and Packers kneel their mutual ways into the playoffs, even as heads explode at league and network headquarters.

9
by Bryan Knowles :: Wed, 12/28/2016 - 11:59pm

It will be the most interesting overtime ever should it happen -- a game theory class in action.

5
by Will Allen :: Wed, 12/28/2016 - 6:29pm

It's been such a black hole of awfulness for Vikings' blockers this year that the baby roll-snap of Easton barely registered with me. For Bradford to rank 18 in DVOA and DYAR behind that bunch, with no running backs of note, and just so-so receiving, is remarkable. He and Shurmur deserve a lot of credit.

8
by jonsilver :: Wed, 12/28/2016 - 7:57pm

Looks like his feet started back slightly before his arm snapped the ball, creating a greater distance than normal, and he slammed the ball into his own perineum...

10
by erniecohen :: Thu, 12/29/2016 - 10:24am

How can you guys not be more psyched by the TB playoff situation? The first two of nine necessary outcomes have already happened, reducing the odds from 1/60K to 1/20K. The scenario makes five otherwise inconsequential games potentially meaningful, which must be close to a record.

11
by MilkmanDanimal :: Thu, 12/29/2016 - 11:04am

I think it would be interesting if one of the required games was not a tie; we've seen teams slip into the playoffs when a variety of games have to go a certain way, but a tie being required basically makes it close enough to mathematically impossible that I'm going to stand outside in a thunderstorm holding a metal rod in one hand and a lottery ticket in the other.

12
by Raiderjoe :: Fri, 12/30/2016 - 12:01am

Get the kite,Beavis

13
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Fri, 12/30/2016 - 1:21am

RaiderJoe discovered
http://i.imgur.com/WMRu9.jpg

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

14
by Athelas :: Mon, 01/02/2017 - 10:27am

Oh Bryan, it's the first rule of taking tests--don't change your answer because of "cold feet".