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» Seventh Day Adventure: Week 13

The biggest game this week is the Iron Bowl, where the playoff hopes of Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia hang in the balance.

04 Feb 2016

Scramble's 2016 SB Prop Bet Extravaganza!

by Andrew Healy and Sterling Xie

Andrew: This week is special not because of the game -- there's football every week for five months -- but because of the bets. Vegas keeps us salivating for the wild and woolly in wagering by only offering a full slate of insanity once every year. Usually, we're annoying people by picking the wrong guys for the All-Keep-Choppin'-Wood Team, or criticizing coaching legends when they're fallible, or just generally being ignoramooses. This week, though, Scramble brings nothing but joy. Super Bowl Props!

Sterling: Thank goodness no coin toss prop was offered for the Packers-Cardinals game, though I guess overtime coin flip props aren't a thing. That's probably one of the very few things Vegas hasn't put on the board, though with Clete Blakeman back as the referee for this game, maybe it should be.

Andrew: Since this has been going on for a long time -- this is Scramble for the Ball's 13th Annual Super Bowl Prop Bet Extravaganza -- let's recycle the explanation of how betting works from previous years. If your name is something like "Teddy the Snake" or you're just familiar with the betting world, you can skip past this explanation to our bets.

How Bets Work

Most of the bets are we'll cover are about whether a proposition is over or under the "line." For example:

Number of times Von Miller will sack Tom Brady without getting touched by a Patriots lineman (1.5)
Over -115
Under +105

Here, you would be betting on how many times Von Miller would get a sack while getting the matador treatment, choosing either more or less than 1.5. Since football stats are generally whole numbers, most propositions won't have "push" as a viable option. If you were to bet that Miller would get two or more olé sacks, you would have to wager a hypothetical £115 to get £215 back: your £115 that you wagered plus £100 more (hence the "-115"). If you wanted to take the under, you would wager a hypothetical £100 to get £205: your £100 back, plus £105 (hence the "+105").

The other bets are those with many possible options, like wagering on who will score the first touchdown in the game. The odds there will be something like "Fozzie Bear +7000," meaning that if you wager a hypothetical £100 on Fozzie and he waka-wakas his way to the first touchdown, your profit would be £7,000. While that sounds pretty unlikely, you are getting compensated with big odds for betting on Fozzie Bear. By the way, those are the real odds on Fozzy Whittaker scoring the first touchdown.

For the purposes of determining a winner of this column, we're laying down 100,000 sterling (after all, my young friend here is a currency) down across these bets. We'll put our amounts in the table of wisdom at the end, and tally up who did the best next week.

Let's crank it up.

General Bets

Super Bowl 50 Game Odds

Carolina Panthers -6 (-110)
Denver Broncos +6 (+110)

Sterling: As I mentioned last week, I live in perpetual fear of Peyton Manning. But that's not why I'm grabbing the points here. Denver's two losses by more than six points came when Peyton aged 90 years against Kansas City and when Antonio Brown proved to be the kryptonite to Denver's secondary. It's certainly possible that Cam Newton's mobility can stretch the Broncos defense unlike any other quarterback this season, but I have a hard time imagining the players around Newton winning very many matchups. Denver has done a nice job of keeping games close all season, so I'll take the Broncos here.

Andrew: For the Panthers to cover the number, it seems like they will likely need Josh Norman or Luke Kuechly ending up in the end zone. Carolina has more defensive touchdowns this postseason than Peyton Manning does passing scores, so that's very much on the table. Not hard to squint and see the Super Bowl XLVIII scenario playing out to some lesser degree. The Carolina defensive line should destroy the interior of the Broncos' offensive line. While Tom Brady might have exploited the Panthers' thinness at corner, Peyton Manning might not be able to.

And still, give me the Broncos. I get six points with a great defense, against a team that is not as good as its record. I don't feel great about it and I certainly wouldn't put real money on it, but that seems like the only play here.

Interesting point on the line: Two years ago, the line was distorted by a whole bunch of casual-bettor love for Peyton Manning. Almost every smart bettor went with the Seahawks. This time, I don't think the story is reversed. You have the sentimental favorite on one side, but he's also the guy nobody believes in anymore. I say they cancel each other out and that this line is pretty much on the money.

Super Bowl 50 Money Line

Carolina Panthers -220
Denver Broncos +185

Andrew: At this price, I'll take the Broncos, but again I'd stay away. At our odds, it's a positive expected value bet. The Broncos have a 40 percent chance of winning, which would break even at +150. I'm a little more skeptical than that, but not a lot.

Sterling: Agreed. How can you take the Panthers at this price? It's tricky when there's a consensus favorite, but the value makes no sense. I would rather bet on the spread than the money line, since I think the Broncos are much likelier to keep things close and lose than win outright, but Denver still looks like the play here.

Super Bowl 50 Over/Under

Over 45.5 (-110)
Under 45.5 (-110)

Sterling: Including the postseason, the Panthers have had 12 games with a combined total over 45.5 (second-most), while the Broncos have just six games over that total (tied for 24th). So this is basically about whether or not you believe that Newton is unique enough of a weapon to break down Denver's defense and make enough plays out of structure, or that Carolina's defense will force enough turnovers to give its offense multiple short fields. I'm guessing neither happens, which is why I'd take the under.

Andrew: I'm surprised this number is so high, so I'm going under, too. We need to create some more disagreement here, Crossfire-style. I think there's a pretty good chance that one of those scenarios you mentioned for the over happens, but I agree that the most likely scenario has Denver playing super safe, content with punting as long as the game situation allows it. If Carolina opens up more of a lead early and punting ceases to be an easy escape valve, that's where the floodgates could start to open. But this Denver defense makes the early deficit less likely than it was in 2013.

Game MVP Odds

Cam Newton -155
Peyton Manning +320
Luke Kuechly +1,500
Ted Ginn Jr. +1,500
C.J. Anderson +1,800
Von Miller +1,800
Jonathan Stewart +2,000
Greg Olsen +3,000
Emmanuel Sanders +3,500
Demaryius Thomas +4,000
Corey Brown +4,500
Aqib Talib +5,000
Brandon McManus +5,000
DeMarcus Ware +5,000
Graham Gano +6,000
Ronnie Hillman +7,000
Josh Norman +7,500
Brandon Marshall +9,500
Charles Johnson +15,000
Chris Harris Jr. +15,000
Danny Trevathan +15,000
Devin Funchess +15,000
Jerricho Cotchery +15,000
Kurt Coleman +15,000
Owen Daniels +15,000

Andrew: Oh, at that price, I love Peyton Manning. Everybody is rooting for him, he'll probably get a friendly call or two or eight. Barring defensive touchdowns, he will need to be successful throwing to win. The way to attack this defense is by going after Robert McClain and Cortland Finnegan. So give me The Sheriff at +320.

And as a side note: I'm mostly kidding about the calls, but not entirely. With all the sentiment behind Manning, that could be worth a call or two. We know that home field swings officials. The Broncos have the benefit of playing closer to home against a team that, unlike Seattle, will not dominate the crowd. I'd expect the crowd to lean Denver and also help make the officials more likely to tilt, ever so slightly, to the Broncos.

One last thing: the weather for Sunday is forecast to be 73 degrees and sunny, about 13 degrees higher than the norm for this time of year. Not sure an NFL player has ever had as many four-leaf clovers up his posterior as Manning has this season.

But I also love a couple of other bets here. One is Josh Norman at +7,500. Another is Thomas Davis at +2,750, or 275/1. Norman is a great player and it's hard to get such great odds on something so plausible as him having a spectacular game where the Panthers' defense dominates. Obviously, it's hard to think Manning will throw his way very often.

And Thomas Davis is such a great story that I could see him winning the award if Denver scores in the single digits and no Panther clearly stands out.

Sterling: If Carolina wins, it's hard to envision a scenario where Cam doesn't take home the MVP. Luke Kuechly's odds (+1,500) are way too short to make him decent value, so again, I feel compelled to take someone on the Broncos. I think Peyton is a strong choice at those odds -- if it's even close, you know he's getting the tiebreaker -- but I also like DeMarcus Ware at +3,000. No, I'm not going to lay down much of my budget on this. But Ware has a great matchup against Michael Oher, and has gotten a sack in all but four of the 13 games he's played. I don't think it's unfeasible that he's the best defensive player on Denver on Sunday.

Team/Game Props

Either Team to Score on Three Consecutive Possessions

Yes -160
No +130

Andrew: This is usually a really good bet on the yes side, but you have to like it a little bit less with these defenses potentially limiting the number of scores. This went off last year at similar odds and even in a very close game, it happened when Seattle followed up the touchdown at the end of the first half with the first two scores of the third quarter.

By the way, this is one of those great bets where psychology research helps you find the value. Our brains are hard-wired to see patterns that represent randomness incorrectly. Consider these two sequences of H (heads) or T (tails):

H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H H
H T T H H H T T T T T T T H H H T H T H H H T H H H T H T H

Most people will say the first sequence is the actual coin, but it actually flips back and forth far too often. It's the second sequence that comes from an actual coin. Flip a coin enough times and you'll see seven tails in a row more than we tend to think.

And if you don't like the stats argument, the last time this didn't happen was five years ago in a back-and-forth game between the Packers and Steelers. Even in a lower scoring game, at this price give me Yes on three consecutive scores.

Sterling: Weird that the Green Bay-Pittsburgh game was the last time this happened, as I remember that being a game where the offenses controlled things (especially once the Steelers woke up). But remember that both Carolina and Denver are ground-bound offenses, which might reduce the number of possessions and chances for three consecutive scores to occur. Maybe we see more passes, given how good both defenses are against the run. But if either offense is one-dimensional, I think that reduces the chances of consecutive scores anyways, so I'll go the other way and say No.

Missed Extra Point

Yes +290
No -380

Andrew: If there are five touchdowns and we give the kickers a 95 percent chance of making an extra point, there is a 77 percent chance of making them all, which makes both sides of this bet unprofitable. Just like most bets probably are. Give me yes just for the fun of it, but I'm not putting any sterling on this one. I kind of wish I could get the right odds one way or the other on an extra point going in off of both uprights. I would take that at 1,000/1.

Sterling: Graham Gano did miss three PATs during the regular season, though he attempted a league-high 59. McManus only missed one of his 36 attempts. Umm, I want to pass, but I'll take the likely minimal profit from betting no.

Safety in the Game

Yes +475
No -700

Andrew: It's not a particularly fun bet, but if you're willing to grind away a living like Knish in Rounders, no is a great bet. There have been 15 safeties in 266 games (5.8 percent) this season. Even at double that rate, this bet would have positive expected value. Whatever the defensive strengths of these teams, this bet still looks good.

And, of course, you lost if you made the smart wager in three of the last four Super Bowls. In 2013, it was the first snap of the game going past Peyton Manning. In 2012, it was Sam Koch taking an intentional safety for the Ravens at the very end of the game. In 2011, it was Tom Brady getting called for the longest intentional grounding in NFL history.

The safety rate has generally been higher in the playoffs. Over the last ten years of playoff games (109 games), there have been 13 safeties, just enough to make No an even-money proposition if you bet it every week. So you can make a case here for staying away.

Sterling: Neither Britton Colquitt nor Brad Nortman were particularly good at pinning teams inside the 20 this year. And it probably looks worse if we were to see how they did at pinning teams inside the 10- or 5-yard lines, where the ball really needs to be for a safety to occur (barring a freakish snap like what happened to Manning two years ago). Your math backs up what common sense might suggest, which is that No is the right bet here.

Panthers Props

Total Number of Panthers First Downs

Over 20.5 -115
Under 20.5 -115

Andrew: The Broncos gave up more than 20 first downs four times all season, while the Panthers went under 21 first downs eight times. (The Panthers were never under 17, however.) I like under here. The Panthers could go under in a loss driven by the Denver defense, in a close low-scoring win, or even in a blowout win driven by big plays.

Sterling: I guess this probably depends on Denver's ability to prevent big plays, which would thereby force the Panthers to matriculate the ball down the field and pick up more first downs. Denver allowed just 52 plays of more than 20 yards during the regular season, tied with San Francisco for the fewest in the league, so I'll trust the Broncos defense here and pick the under as well.

Luke Kuechly Props

13 or more tackles (solo or assisted) +375
15 or more tackles (solo or assisted) +1,200
Records a Sack +350
Records an Interception +275
Scores a Touchdown +1,400

Sterling: Any chance Kuechly scores in three consecutive postseason games? Given the duckishness of Manning's throws and Kuechly's range over the middle, I wouldn't put it past him. But the 15 or more solo or assisted tackles catches my eye at that price. Kuechly has only hit that figure once, but he has also gotten 14 combined tackles in two separate games. With Denver likely keeping things on the ground and Thomas Davis limited, I think it's at least possible he hits that number. Plus, I don't get why there's such a big difference between 13 and 15. Apart from those three games I mentioned, Kuechly hasn't recorded more than 11 combined tackles in a game.

Andrew: I'm with you on finding that price interesting, but hard for me to think he has the nine or 10 percent chance of hitting 15 tackles that he would need to make this a profitable prop. This season, he hasn't sniffed 15 tackles in a game, only reaching 10 against the Giants and never hitting 11. None of the above.

Cam Newton Rushing + Passing Yards

Over 300 +125
Over 350 +500
Over 400 +1,800
Over 450 +6,000

Sterling: Only two quarterbacks threw for 300 yards against Denver this year: Ben Roethlisberger (twice) and Tom Brady, who needed 56 passes to get there in the AFC Championship Game. The Panthers have done fine in games where Cam hasn't lit things up through the air, and he isn't likely to go too crazy on the ground. He has topped 70 yards rushing only twice this year, against the Texans in Week 2 and that insane game against the Giants in Week 15. Over 300 is the only thing here I think is worth a bet, though I'm not even sure I like that number.

Andrew: Yes, I think I'm staying away from all of the above. I would like him under 300 total yards at -125 were that bet available.

Panthers Rushing Yards

Over 125.5 (-120)
Under 125.5 (-110)

Andrew: The Broncos have allowed just one team, Kansas City in Week 2, to hit that number of rushing yards all year. The Panthers have hit that number in 14 of their 18 games. Love these strength-against-strength props. The four teams that held the Panthers under 125.5 were not exactly defensive juggernauts: New Orleans, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, and Jacksonville.

I'm going over. The Panthers put up the two highest rushing numbers (144 and 135) on the Seahawks, a defense that only gave up more than 125 two other times. The Cardinals only gave up over 125 yards five times, once to the Panthers. The Panthers get their yards even against the rushing defenses that usually don't allow many.

Sterling: My instinct is to side with the defense in these strength-on-strength matchups, but what Carolina has done this postseason makes me pause. And other than Alex Smith, who is obviously on those aforementioned Chiefs, Denver hasn't faced any other quarterbacks who can stretch a defense with his legs like Cam. I don't expect Jonathan Stewart to be particularly successful, but I think Newton can accrue 40 or 50 rushing yards to push this to the over.

Broncos Props

Total Number of Broncos to Have a Rushing Attempt

Over 3.5 +165
Under 3.5 -200

Sterling: This prop counts kneeldowns, so Peyton will most likely get in on the action. We know C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman will as well, which leaves it up to someone like Juwan Thompson or Emmanuel Sanders on an end-around to push this up to over. Denver seems unlikely to move the ball with its conventional offense, so maybe Gary Kubiak pulls out a trick on the big stage and gets Sanders or Demaryius Thomas the ball on a carry. Over doesn't look too bad here.

Andrew: You do realize that the AFC Championship Game was the only game all year where Manning had positive rushing yards? The chances of him converting that third-and-10 with a run were what, 30/1? How did the Patriots lose again?

Manning has rushed in each of his last three games, but had a bunch of zeroes over the course of the season. I like him at about a 60 percent chance of getting a carry, but I see the chance of someone else getting an attempt at around 40 percent. You would need both of those to happen. A 24 percent chance of both means under is the play here.

Will Broncos Score a Rushing TD?

Yes -135
No +105

Sterling: During the regular season, Denver failed to score a rushing touchdown in seven games, though five of those instances came while Peyton was flailing around during the first 10 weeks. But the Broncos (mostly Anderson) have been pretty hot recently, and Carolina's defense is somehow dead last in power run success rate, even though the Panthers are fourth overall in run success rate. I'll go Yes here, with the assumption that Anderson can make it in if/when Denver gets the ball near the goal line.

Andrew: Close call. All close calls get decided in favor of what I'm rooting for. No, but a less-than-healthy Thomas Davis hurts here.

Peyton Manning Interceptions

Over 1.5 +150
Over 2.5 +750

Sterling: We swear this isn't sour grapes from Patriots fans! Most of the Manning-specific props don't seem particularly friendly to bettors. The passing yardage ones start at 300 (+190), and the pass attempts one start at 40 (+150). If you really want, you can bet on Peyton to score a rushing touchdown and the Broncos win at +3,300. For whatever reason, there are no under props for the Sheriff.

This feels like the one Peyton prop that might offer a little value, given that the Panthers have forced more turnovers than any team in the league. Manning has done a nice job taking care of the ball in the playoffs, with his only turnover coming on that semi-fluky backwards pass (which was technically a fumble) against New England, but I think at least one pick is likely. Still, I'd rather stay away since the odds on "Over 1.5" don't look particularly great.

Andrew: He didn't come particularly close to throwing a pick against the Patriots, either. The scenario for over 1.5 interceptions is the Super Bowl XLVIII situation where they fall behind and have to take chances. Not likely enough to make either of those bets attractive. Staying away.

Owen Daniels Receptions

Over 2.5 -150
Under 2.5 +120

Andrew: Your initial thought here might be to go over. Mine was. But Daniels had two or fewer catches in ten games. This week, he goes up against the No. 1 defense against opposing tight ends. Give me the under on Mr. Daniels.

Sterling: Daniels may have caught two touchdowns against the Patriots last week, but those were his only two catches of the game. Apparently the Broncos coaching staff also decided playing Vernon Davis would be a real thing again, so under 2.5 catches for me as well.

Exotic Props

Who will Super Bowl MVP thank first?

Teammates +175
God +180
Fans/City +600
Family +1,000
Coaches/Owner +1,000
Does Not Thank Anyone or Mention Any on List +180

Andrew: I wish Ambassador of Quan was an option here at +5,000. But even Rod Tidwell went family first. and I think those odds are pretty appealing. Give me family at +1,000.

Note that the last category is like the field, which is usually a pretty good bet. Feel like those are unusually terrible odds for a field bet, however.

Sterling: Weird that the field gets the same odds as God here. I could see a Panthers player thanking the Fans/City given how they've interacted with their young fans in the front rows of games this year.

If Cam scores a rushing TD, what will he do first?

Superman EVEN
Dances Solo +180
Dances with Teammates +800
Dunks on FG Post +3,000
Goes to crowd and gives ball away +400
Hands ball to an official +3,000
Spikes Ball +1,200

Sterling: As someone who takes an inordinate amount of joy in touchdown celebrations, the answer here is dances solo. Cam has traditionally done the Superman motion where he opens his shirt, but this year, he's done a lot more dancing. It's not just the dab either, as he's added new novelty celebrations this season. Like here against Dallas and here against Atlanta. He never gives the ball away until he does some sort of celebration, so those odds at +400 aren't great. The ones with longer odds aren't in his repertoire.

Andrew: You are our touchdown celebration expert, so I'm going with you here and taking dances solo. But isn't there a scenario here for hands ball to the official? Suppose Denver's up a couple touchdowns late. I could see Cam going for no celebration. I know that seems unlikely, but he clearly wants this so badly. Could see the prospect of a loss prompting Cam to forego the dance, the Superman, the handoff, all of it.

Gatorade Color

Blue +350
Clear +400
Green +1,000
Orange Even
Purple +800
Red +550
Yellow +450

Andrew: I could have sworn the Pats had multiple colors last year. If it's blue and yellow, does green win? Anyway, the Panthers are the favorite and they wear blue.

Sterling: When the hell has green Gatorade been a thing? My house had a disproportionate amount of yellow Gatorade growing up, so that's what I'll go with here.

What Region Will Have the Higher Nielsen Rating?

Charlotte -105
Denver -135

Andrew: The Denver crowd was unbelievable for the AFCC. Incredible football area. But I'm going Charlotte because it's closer to prime time and rain is in the forecast.

Sterling: Ah, I didn't think about the time zone difference for a minute. I suppose everyone watches on Super Bowl Sunday, but 4:30 is still different from 6:30. I know the NBA doesn't play games that overlap with the Super Bowl, but it still would have been funny to see the Nuggets and Hornets host games just to see who showed up. Anyways, Charlotte for me.

Will Mike Carey make the wrong call on a coach's challenge?

Yes +120
No -150

Andrew: That can't be real, right? While the rest of our props come from sportsbook.ag, I found this prop here. There might not even be a coach's challenge and it could be beyond obvious if there is one. Yes, Carey is barely better than having my niece just randomly pick what the call should be, but we have to go no here.

Sterling: Apparently, Carey thinks he's gotten about 90 percent of the calls right this season. Insert snide remark here. It wouldn't be a Nantz-Simms broadcast without an awkward Carey retraction, would it? I'm taking yes here.

Cross-Sport Props

Jozy Altidore Goals vs. Cam Newton Rushing Touchdowns

Altidore +190
Newton -240

Andrew: The U.S. Men's National Team is playing Canada. For the uninitiated, Altidore is to goal-scoring what Nick Foles is to passing. But Canada's team would be pretty far down in international soccer DVOA. Altidore has five goals in his last seven national team games, including a crucial two in our year-defining win in November over St. Vincent and The Grenadines. Give me Jozy Foles against the Canadians at that price.

Sterling: I don't really follow the USMNT if it's not the World Cup, so my only memories of Altidore involve terrible disappointment. And doesn't Cam kind of have to become the primary ballcarrier, given how great the Broncos are against traditional runs? I'll take Cam and thank my lucky stars I'll never leave the fate of my wages (real or imaginary) on Altidore.

Stephen Curry Points vs. Panthers Points

Stephen Curry points (-4.5) -115
Panthers points (+4.5) -115

Sterling: The Dubs are hosting Oklahoma City, who may be the third- or fourth-best team in the league, but not on the strength of its defense. The Thunder are 12th in points per 100 possessions, and Enes Kanter trying to protect the rim against a Curry drive is probably the same as a taller version of you or me trying to protect the rim against a Curry drive. Though the reigning MVP has slumped a bit his past three games, I'll happily take Curry to cover with the game at Oracle Arena.

Andrew: It's un-American not to like Steph. Curry.

Rory McIlroy Fourth-Round Score vs. Emmanuel Sanders Receiving Yards

McIlroy score (+0.5) -115
Sanders receiving yards (-0.5) -115

Sterling: McIlroy is playing at the Dubai Desert Classic, which he won last year with a score of 22 under par. The former World No. 1 did well last week at a major tournament in Abu Dhabi, finishing third with a score of 14 under par. So if we assume McIlroy shoots something between a 65 and 70, that sets the bar for Sanders. I'll take Sanders in this toss-up, betting on him beating either Cortland Finnegan or Robert McClain deep at least once.

Andrew: What we really need is a Sanders vs. Sanders prop. Like Emmanuel receiving yards (+30) versus Barry's season average in 1995. Or Emmanuel receiving touchdowns versus the ex-Buck Larry Sanders 2015 rebounds. Or Emmanuel rushing yards versus Summer Sanders gold medals. Anyway, give me Rory.

76ers First Quarter Points vs. Denver First Downs

76ers first quarter points (-5.5) -115
Broncos first downs (+5.5) -115

Andrew: The 76ers get to play the Brooklyn Nets, the team that I used to watch back in the days of Otis Birdsong and Mike Gminski. Later, it was Drazen Petrovic, back when we got £5 tickets off the back of Kraft cheese singles. If it wasn't for the early-1980s Cavaliers or Donald Sterling Clippers, the recent Nets would be in the running for the worst-run franchise ever. Before he finally got fired, I hear Billy King was looking to trade unprotected 2020 and 2022 first-round picks for Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan.

All right, I actually ran the numbers and decided this line was perfectly set. So give me the 76ers in a protest bet against the wrath of King.

Sterling: Believe in Ish Smith! Philly has been semi-respectable since the 6-foot-0 journeyman arrived just over a month ago, with six of its seven wins this season coming with Smith on the roster. Am I crazy or should the Sixers be favored in this game at home? I'm taking Philly, if only to prolong my hopeful dreams of seeing Ben Simmons in Celtic green via the Nets pick. Yes, readers, the obnoxious Boston fandom extends beyond the gridiron in this column!

Final Tally


Scramble’s Prop Bet Extravaganza Betting Totals
Prop Andrew Sterling
Game ATS (DEN +6) DEN (£0) DEN (£10,000)
Game Moneyline DEN (£0) DEN (£10,000)
Over/Under (45.5) Under (£20,000) Under (£10,000)
MVP Peyton Manning (£3,000 at +320)
Josh Norman (£1,000 at +7500)
Thomas Davis (£1,000 at +27500)
DeMarcus Ware (£1000 at +3000)
3 Straight Scores Yes (£10,000) No (£4,000)
Missed PAT No (£0) No (£6,000)
Safety No (£5,000) No (£4,000)
CAR 1st Downs (20.5) Under (£20,000) Under (£2,500)
Kuechly Props Eh (Stay Away) (£0) 15+ tackles (£1000)
Cam Rush+Pass Yds Eh (Stay Away) (£0) 300+ (£2,500)
CAR Rushing Yds (125.5) Over (£0) Over (£2,500)
Prop Andrew Sterling
DEN Players w/Rush Att (3.5) Under (£0) Over (£2,500)
DEN Rushing TD No (£0) Yes (£5,000)
Manning INTs Eh (Stay Away) (£0) N/A (£0)
Daniels Receptions Under 2.5 (£10,000) Under (£2,500)
MVP Thank You Family (£10,000 at +1000) Fans/City (£2,500 at +600)
Cam Celebration Solo dance (£0) Solo dance (£4,000 at +180)
Gatorade Blue (£0) Yellow (£2,500 at +450)
Higher TV Rating Charlotte (£0) Charlotte (£2,500)
Mike Carey No (£15,000) Yes (£1,000)
Altidore vs. Cam Altidore (£5,000) Cam (£1,000)
Curry vs. Panthers Curry (£0) Curry (£8,000)
McIlroy vs. Sanders McIlroy (£0) Sanders (£7,500)
76ers vs. Broncos 76ers (£0) 76ers (£7,500)

Andrew: Big kudos to Sterling for allocating his 100,000 pound sterling to each of the different bets. My people (the economists) have fun by making everything as unfun as possible, so I was more targeted even with the fake cheddah.

Enjoy the props and, less importantly, the game!

Posted by: Andrew Healy and Sterling Xie on 04 Feb 2016

9 comments, Last at 07 Feb 2016, 10:41pm by bigpoppapump

Comments

1
by MilkmanDanimal :: Thu, 02/04/2016 - 2:35pm

Emmanuel Sanders at +3500 has to be at least somewhat attractive, right? Presuming Norman follows Thomas around, Sanders gets covered by McClain or Finnegan, and should therefore get more targets. He's fast enough where he could catch short Peyton passes and go a long way with them, plus he could get a run or two. Sure, QBs are more likely to get the MVP when WRs have a big day, but Sanders strikes me as one of the guys who has to have a huge game in order for Denver to have an offense, and +3500 seems like a pretty darn big number to me.

2
by Eddo :: Thu, 02/04/2016 - 2:37pm

I assume Thomas Davis's MVP odds are +27,500, not +2,750, given that (a) he's not listed above the paragraph and (b) you say it's 275/1 (+2,750 would be 55/2).

Also, I think you both misinterpreted the three-straight-scores prop; it's written as "Either Team to Score on Three Consecutive Possessions", which would mean that either team scores on three of their own possessions, not that three straight scores in the game are made by one team.

3
by Will Allen :: Thu, 02/04/2016 - 4:27pm

Starting to like the under a lot. If Denver wins, it'll be an under. If Denver covers, it'll very like be an under. Even a very, very, comfortable Carolina cover might easily be an under. The Broncos are so poorly constructed to play from behind, I just can't see a 34-20 Panthers win, and if Panthers approach 40, I think the Broncos chances of crossing 10 starts to shrink. Panthers win 27-24? I just don't see that score, and I can't see the Broncos winning if the Panthers score 20 or more.

4
by Eleutheria :: Thu, 02/04/2016 - 5:42pm

I rarely place bets (maybe 2-3 a season), this was the first time I've placed money on the under.

8
by Will Allen :: Fri, 02/05/2016 - 10:30am

The scenario that would worry me most about the under is the Panthers winning 38-6, or 34-10, in the 4th, and not playing on the last Broncos possession of the game, and Brick Osweiler throwing a td pass with about a minute or two left on the clock. If the Broncos defense weathers the storm through the 1 1/2 quarters of the game, however, and Manning doesn't have to try to make throws he can't make, so the Panthers don't have more than 14 at the half, then the under should be very solid.

5
by BroncFan07 :: Thu, 02/04/2016 - 6:17pm

If a team goes for 2 and misses, isn't that a missed extra point as well?

6
by bigpoppapump :: Fri, 02/05/2016 - 5:51am

1st Coldplay song:

Yellow. 10/1 (has been backed in from 40/1).

9
by bigpoppapump :: Sun, 02/07/2016 - 10:41pm

Hope you all got involved

7
by Van Buren :: Fri, 02/05/2016 - 6:46am

Van Buren
"once the Steelers woke up" ... Shouldn't that read, "once Charles Woodson broke his arm"?