Expected Failed Completions is another step in using game charting to break down the air and YAC components in a successful connection. We look at a decade of results and hone in on 2015.
27 Jul 2009
by Bill Barnwell
For our final Wisdom of Crowds feature on wide receivers, five players set at the extremes of performance and expectation were paraded in front of our merry band of Twitter followers. (Space still available.)
We start out West with the offseason's biggest catch…
Monday: T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Average Prediction: 86 catches, 1072 receiving yards, 8 TD
Maximum Prediction: 110 catches, 1456 receiving yards, 14 TD
Minimum Prediction: 67 catches, 780 receiving yards, 5 TD
It might only be me, but Housmandzadeh just seems younger than he actually is. Thanks to a career that didn't fully launch until the former Oregon State star turned 27, Houshmandzadeh will already be turning 32 in September, a point at which most wide receivers are already well into their decline phase.
His yards per catch have also been in freefall, dropping in each of his five seasons as the Bengals starting wide receiver. There's only been a few instances of a receiver catching 50 or more passes in five consecutive seasons while seeing his yards per catch drop with each season:
This isn't the worst company in the world, although Houshmandzadeh will find it hard to average fewer than 9.8 yards per catch this year (you can't just blame it on Ryan Fitzpatrick, either, as Housh averaged only 10.2 yards per catch with Carson Palmer around in '07).
Which career path do you think Houshmandzadeh is likeliest to follow?
Tuesday: Larry Fitzgerald
Average Prediction: 97 catches, 1391 receiving yards, 12 TD
Maximum Prediction: 115 catches, 1570 receiving yards, 18 TD
Minimum Prediction: 87 catches, 1270 receiving yards, 8 TD
Interesting that Fitzgerald's minimum prediction was right around Houshamanzadeh's average. Keep in mind that Fitzgerald's playoff performance, extrapolated to a 16-game schedule, calls for a line of 140 catches, 2508 receiving yards, and 36 touchdowns.
You'll also note the lack of any real variance here -- Fitzgerald could put up either that maximum prediction or the minimum one, and no one would bat an eye.
Wednesday: Jerricho Cotchery
Average Prediction: 76 catches, 918 receiving yards, 6 TD
Maximum Prediction: 90 catches, 1107 receiving yards, 8 TD
Minimum Prediction: 59 catches, 670 receiving yards, 3 TD
Respondents can't see their fellow predictors' guesses, so it was really awesome to see that the first three predictions for Cotchery were 73-950-5, 70-910-5, and 70-940-6. That is the same sentence, let alone the same page.
It all depends on how you view the Jets' situation around Cotchery. If you view it as "someone has to catch passes", you predicted something closer to the max. If you view it as "he's going to get triple-teamed and hate life", you were closer to the minimum. I think the average is actually just about right, with 75-100 more receiving yards tacked on.
Thursday: Wes Welker
Average Prediction: 104 catches, 1052 receiving yards, 8 TD
Maximum Prediction: 124 catches, 1200 receiving yards, 12 TD
Minimum Prediction: 85 catches, 900 receiving yards, 4 TD
Welker has 11 touchdowns combined in his two seasons with New England; not sure where our predictors think those 12 touchdowns are coming from (or, to be more exact, coming out of), but everyone agrees that Welker's reception total will be high.
Of course, I always wonder how Danny Amendola would do in the same role that Welker has. We're going to be presenting some new research over the next few weeks on catch rate and assigning responsibility for completed passes that I think is going to be very eye-opening, although it doesn't totally redefine Welker's value or anything.
Friday: Darrius Heyward-Bey
Average Prediction: 37 catches, 536 receiving yards, 3 TD
Maximum Prediction: 56 catches, 775 receiving yards, 6 TD
Minimum Prediction: 18 catches, 320 receiving yards, 1 TD
Normally, we'd ignore a minimum prediction that low, but it wasn't the only one -- we had two people at 20, one at 24, another at 25 … let's just say that people aren't expecting good things.
Although there's not very many high hopes for DHB's cumulative totals, people still think he's going to burn. Over half the respondents projected Heyward-Bey to average more than 15 yards per catch. The last Raider rookie to catch 30 passes and average more than 15 per reception? James Jett (33-771-3), whose career Heyward-Bey may very well end up emulating.
We'll be doing a week of tight ends before moving onto broader pastures, so come follow us on Twitter @fb_outsiders and give your say on Antonio Gates, Brent Celek, and others this week!
11 comments, Last at 28 Jul 2009, 3:09pm by Anonimouse!