Five different teams from last year's DVOA top eight rank in the bottom half of the league through four weeks of 2014. What can we learn from other teams with similar starts in the past?
16 Aug 2010
by Bill Barnwell
In this week's edition of Wisdom of Crowds, the focus shifts from quarterback to running back. We'll look at five of the more interesting backs in the league heading into 2010, including last year's leading rusher, Chris Johnson of the Titans.
For the uninitiated, every weekday, I ask my Twitter followers to project three statistics for a given player, assuming he'll play a full 16-game slate without suffering an injury that keeps him out of action for a full game. For running backs, those three statistics are rushing attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns. You can check out the previous entries in this series here:
Monday: Chris Johnson
Average: 329 carries, 1,643 rushing yards, 13 TD
Maximum: 422 carries, 2,014 rushing yards, 18 TD
Minimum: 275 carries, 1,183 rushing yards, 8 TD
Only one respondent thought that Chris Johnson would gain 2,000 yards for the second consecutive season, which surprised me; I don't think that he'll make it there myself, but I was expecting more people to believe that he would. The 422-carry suggestion actually pegged Johnson's rushing yardage at 1,740 yards, which would mean an extremely disappointing 4.1 yards per carry.
Johnson has now averaged 5.3 yards per carry and 104.3 yards per game through his first two seasons. Our average projection has him at 5.0 yards per carry, a rate slightly lower than his established level of performance, but the consensus is that he'll still run for 102.7 yards per game.
Research we've done in the past has suggested that rushing quarterbacks improve the performance of halfbacks in the running game, so I think there's reason to believe Johnson should be able to hit that 5.0 figure, if not necessarily his 5.3 career average. His cumulative yardage total should come down to how well the Titans play -- his monstrous second half came in part because the Titans went 6-2. (You can also argue the reverse, I suppose.) I suspect average projected totals for carries and yardage are a tad high.
Tuesday: Shonn Greene
Average: 280 carries, 1,215 rushing yards, 9 TD
Maximum: 345 carries, 1,587 rushing yards, 14 TD
Minimum: 210 carries, 890 rushing yards, 4 TD
I expressed a lot of my concerns about Greene in his player comment in FOA 2010, but to summarize: His playoff run (and regular season performance) came against a bunch of weak run defenses, the Jets just cut an excellent run blocker, and the offensive line hasn't missed a start in three years, a trend that will be nearly impossible to continue. That's not Greene's fault, obviously, but he was a back surrounded by a particularly ideal context last year. It reminds me a lot of Matt Cassel in 2008.
Now, Greene won't fall off the same way Cassel did. He's still on the Jets, and while the line will have someone go down with an injury, it should still be a pretty effective group of blockers. LaDainian Tomlinson and Joe McKnight appear to be scuffling behind him, so his carry total might even be a little low. KUBIAK has him at 254 for 1,293 rushing yards and 9 TD; I like the average projection above more.
Wednesday: Jamaal Charles
Average: 247 carries, 1,185 rushing yards, 8 TD
Maximum: 310 carries, 1,600 rushing yards, 12 TD
Minimum: 201 carries, 800 rushing yards, 3 TD
Lots of comments about Charles splitting time with Thomas Jones, which if true is just infuriating. I've written at length (see FOA 2010) about how Jones isn't an effective goal-line back, but the book on Jones is still that he's going to get a lot of carries in short-yardage. The Chiefs may still give Jones the ball near the goal line, but that's their own fault for paying attention to usage patterns as opposed to skills.
As for Charles? I think the projection is low. He ran for 1,120 yards on 190 carries in the second half of last season alone. I'm not suggesting you should just double his statistics based upon that, but if the Chiefs do win nine games like we're expecting them to, they're going to run the ball a whole heck of a lot. I think Charles's eventual line -- if he does stay healthy -- is actually something like that maximum projection.
Thursday: Matt Forte
Average: 263 carries, 1,051 rushing yards, 7 TD
Maximum: 307 carries, 1,232 rushing yards, 14 TD
Minimum: 201 carries, 800 rushing yards, 3 TD
"Hey! Hey! Matt Forte! How many teams did you kill today?" Mine was one of them, as Forte was my first-round pick in the FO staff league. Once I started running the numbers on how flukily-bad his goal line performance was, though, I began to feel better. Throw in a quiet knee injury and that miserable offensive line, and I'll probably take him again in this year's draft.
Obviously, projecting Chicago's offense -- and the run-pass splits therein -- is very tricky. Much like Johnson and Charles, we also have to tie in our expectations for rushing attempts to the Bears' record: We have them at 9-7, but I suspect that some folks think that's a little high. I would say that the average projection here seems a little low, and that his actual line will be halfway between that average projection and the max: 285 carries, 1,142 rushing yards, and 11 TD. Certainly, I think he's going to be more valuable than his ADP (41.5) suggests.
Friday: Frank Gore
Average: 294 carries, 1,338 rushing yards, 11 TD
Maximum: 370 carries, 1,600 rushing yards, 17 TD
Minimum: 240 carries, 1,050 rushing yards, 5 TD
In the interest of acquiring projections built upon a similar baseline, I insist that people consider a full 16-game slate for each player, and mention it each day when I ask for new projections. Gore's only managed to play 16 games once in his five-year career, though, so we probably have to discount that average projection some. He hasn't been Ronnie Brown or Cadillac Williams when it comes to staying off the field -- Gore's also never gone below 14 games -- but suggesting that he'll miss a game or two with wear and tear seems likely, and it came up a lot when people were discussing the projection on Twitter.
He's averaged 14.75 games a year as a starter. If we pro-rate his average projection above into those 14.75 games, his line is at 271 carries, 1,233 rushing yards, and 10 TD. KUBIAK has Gore going even lower, with a line of 263 carries for 1,055 yards and 7 TD. Again, I think that pro-rated average projection above is probably a little more accurate when it comes to what Gore's final line will look like.
A complicating factor here is the retirement of backup Glen Coffee, which was announced on the same day. The team still has time to identify a veteran backup to add to the roster, but Gore should see a higher percentage of the carries than the 69.6 percent figure he was at a year ago. (The KUBIAK update that we did after Coffee's retirement moved Gore into the projected first round for most leagues.)
Today's halfback is the Eagles' LeSean McCoy, and we'll add four more during the week. If you want to join in, follow the @FO_BBarnwell account at Twitter.
7 comments, Last at 24 Aug 2010, 6:51pm by e18heat