Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

30 Aug 2011

2011 KUBIAK vs. ADP

by Danny Tuccitto

This feature has taken quite a journey over the years. It first appeared back in the Pro Football Prospectus days as a book essay entitled, "Fantasy Risers and Fallers," in which we highlighted players whose fantasy points were either primed to explode or primed to fall off a cliff. Later on, it left the printed page, and became a piece for the website under the same premise. After a couple of years, the focus shifted toward players who KUBIAK thought were going to be much better or much worse than the conventional wisdom indicated as per average draft position (ADP). That's not really a risers-and-fallers concept anymore, so a name change was in order.

One final change we've made to complete the metamorphosis is to consider ADPs within positions rather than overall. For instance, say we told you that KUBIAK ranks Giants wide receiver Hakeem Nicks as the 34th-best player, whereas ADP says he's being taken, on average, with the 18th pick. Wow, a 16-pick difference! People must be overvaluing Nicks! No, not really. It turns out KUBIAK has Nicks as the eighth-best wide receiver, and ADP has him as the sixth-best, so that 16-pick difference is just an artifact of people taking wide receivers much earlier overall than KUBIAK says they should.

The rest of the piece will involve us identifying several players who are undervalued according to positional ADP ranking, as well as several others who are overvalued. In other words, players who KUBIAK feels are being taken either too late (i.e., undervalued) or too early (overvalued) at their positions. For each player, we'll give the raw rankings, and then do our best to explain why KUBIAK and ADP diverge.

If you haven't purchased KUBIAK yet, you can do so here. It's more than just a list of names on a page. It's a customizable Excel application that's constantly updated throughout the preseason to reflect the latest injuries, transactions, and changes to the depth chart. Once you buy it, you can download it an unlimited number of times.

Undervalued Players

Colt McCoy

QB Rank per KUBIAK: 14
QB Rank per ADP: 22

If you believe positional ADP, there's a decent chance McCoy might not even get drafted in your league. Being a Cleveland Browns quarterback might have something to do with that. Luckily, KUBIAK has never heard of Tim Couch or Spergon Wynn. On the other hand, KUBIAK also doesn't know about McCoy having a winner's moxie. No, he's ranked as the 14th-best quarterback because quarterbacks usually improve in their second season, and we project Cleveland to have the second-easiest schedule in the league. Last year, McCoy's stats pro-rated to 209 fantasy points over 16 games, and that was against one of the tougher schedules in the league. If he duplicated that, he'd be 26th in KUBIAK among quarterbacks this season. Adjust it upwards for the factors we just mentioned, and he moves up to a KUBIAK projection of 250, good for 14th.

Ben Roethlisberger

QB Rank per KUBIAK : 5
QB Rank per ADP : 10

In fantasy circles, Big Ben suffers from what we'll call Steelers Football Syndrome (SFS). People tend to associate their offense with smashmouth football, when in reality they've been more of a passing team for quite some time now. That's why, outside of his rape-allegation-adjusted ADP last season, Roethlisberger perennially ends up outperforming his draft standing. This year appears to be no different.

Just like McCoy, Roethlisberger is likely to benefit from playing in the AFC North, which reaps the bonanza of a non-conference schedule against the NFC West: Pittsburgh has the third-easiest projected schedule this season. Given that his pro-rated stats would have ranked him seventh among fantasy quarterbacks last season, a KUBIAK move up to fifth this season seems more likely than an ADP drop to 10th.

Cedric Benson

RB Rank per KUBIAK: 13
RB Rank per ADP: 27

Here at Football Outsiders, we spend most of our time talking about play-by-play metrics. In fantasy football, though, performance per play is less important than the sheer number of opportunities a player gets to perform. Barring some touchdown percentage anomaly, a running back who has a 3.5-yard average over 300 carries will score more rushing points (105) than one who has a 4.5-yard average over 200 carries (100) even though the former was far less efficient. In fantasy football, opportunity is king.

That's the main reason why KUBIAK projects Benson to be much better than where people are drafting him. With rookie Andy Dalton at quarterback, Cincinnati backs will be getting the ball early and often. And with no competition for his job, Benson will receive the vast majority of those carries barring injury.

We should also note that KUBIAK incorporates regression to the mean for Benson in terms of yards per carry. It's unlikely he'll repeat last year's dismal 3.5 average. So, if you spread 3.8 yards over 300-or-so carries, you end up with a pretty good RB2, not the RB3 that ADP suggests.

(Note: If you do draft Benson, be aware he may miss a game in Week 8 due to his recent Texas plea bargain.)

Joseph Addai

RB Rank per KUBIAK: 22
RB Rank per ADP: 32

Addai has a few things going for him from a KUBIAK vs. ADP perspective. First, simply duplicating his pro-rated 2010 stats would make him worthy of being the 20th-ranked running back in this year's projections. Second, if Kerry Collins has to start a few games (or more), that can only help Addai, both for Benson-esque reasons as well as crap-I-don't-know-the-offense-yet-so-let-me-check-down-to-Addai-every-play reasons.

Third, fantasy football owners are human beings (See SFS above). When they get burned because a player is unreliable from week-to-week, he immediately goes on their Do Not Call list. Furthermore, when a player misses a ton of games due to injury, human fantasy owners just assume he's going to miss a ton of games the next season. In reality, injuries are, of course, unpredictable. It's the good ol' availability heuristic at play. Maybe he won't play all 16 games, but it's unlikely he'll miss half the season like he did last year.

Andre Roberts

WR Rank per KUBIAK: 36
WR Rank per ADP: 76

Roberts is another example of the importance of opportunity in fantasy football. Last season, with Steve Breaston nursing a sore knee, Roberts saw most of the action at No. 2 wide receiver in Week 16, and his best game of the season. Obviously, one game is not a reliable predictor of anything, so KUBIAK isn't projecting upwards of 250 fantasy points for him in 2011. However, with Breaston now in Kansas City, Roberts at least gets the opportunity to show what he's got over a full season.

Some might argue that Roberts is in a battle with Early Doucet for the receiver job opposite Larry Fitzgerald. Aside from arguing that Roberts is the better player, we'd also remind everyone that the Cardinals led the league in four-wide-receiver frequency last season. That doesn't appear to be changing this year given the addition of an actual NFL-caliber starting quarterback.

Also on the positive side of the ledger for Roberts is that Arizona has the fifth-easiest schedule in the NFL this season according to our DVOA projections.

Brandon Lloyd

WR Rank per KUBIAK: 10
WR Rank per ADP: 21

Don't get us wrong. KUBIAK doesn't foresee Lloyd duplicating his breakout 2010 season. It's not that clever. However, it's also not as sanguine about Lloyd's 2011 season as the general fantasy football public seems to be. Although it's true that Lloyd won't be in a high-flying pass offense, he's still the No. 1 wide receiver for the Broncos, and there's a wide margin between him and the rest of the receiving corps. He may not be targeted 152 times again, but he's still likely to be targeted plenty barring injury.

Furthermore, as we pointed out in Wisdom of Crowds last week, there's no evidence to suggest that a receiver who breaks out at Lloyd's age will necessarily be a one-hit wonder. You can probably get good value with Lloyd if you take advantage of the Chicken Littles in your league.

Overvalued Players

Matthew Stafford

QB Rank per KUBIAK: 17
QB Rank per ADP: 12

If Lloyd is this year's victim of widespread panic, Stafford is the beneficiary of widespread ease. Ask just about anyone who the sleeper quarterback is this year, and they're likely to say it's Stafford; hence his status as a low-end QB1 according to ADP.

The reason KUBIAK sees him as more of a QB2 is that, for all his potential, Stafford's constant injury woes have prevented him from posting QB1-level fantasy stats thus far in his career. Therefore, we have him listed with yellow risk, meaning we've discounted his fantasy projection by five percent in order to account for the uncertainty of his situation. Not having a solid footing on what to expect from him, it's probably wiser to take a Stafford as your Plan B than to take him as your Plan A, lest you be forced to rely on a worse quarterback for Plan B if Stafford gets hurt again. Again, KUBIAK isn't saying Stafford will be bad, just that you'd get better value waiting as long as possible to take him.

Kevin Kolb

QB Rank per KUBIAK: 18
QB Rank per ADP: 15

Kolb is in the same boat as Stafford. Many fantasy players and experts are assuming that he's going to turn into the fantasy reincarnation of Kurt Warner. Perhaps he will, but there's just not enough prior statistical evidence to back it up. So, again, like Stafford, he's got yellow risk, so you'd do better than banking your quarterback position on a player with such a wide range of potential outcomes.

Ryan Grant

RB Rank per KUBIAK: 43
RB Rank per ADP: 24

Apparently, the fantasy football intelligentsia thinks a healthy Grant in 2011 will return to a points ranking about one depth chart spot below the healthy Grant of 2009. According to KUBIAK, that's a long shot. That's because a lot has changed since 2009, most of which involves Grant's opportunity for touches. James Starks will be stealing early-down carries, John Kuhn will probably be stealing goal line carries, and even rookie Alex Green might end up stealing some third-down responsibilities now that Brandon Jackson has left town.

The projected stat line for KUBIAK's 24th-ranked running back, Beanie Wells, is about 1150 yards and 5 touchdowns, and that's with basically no competition for carries. If Grant is able to reach those benchmarks, it'll probably be due to injuries that KUBIAK doesn't (and can't) foresee.

DeAngelo Williams

RB Rank per KUBIAK: 33
RB Rank per ADP: 21

Surprisingly, the downward pressure on Williams' fantasy prospects this season isn't Jonathan Stewart, as it has been throughout his career. Instead, this year's problem that hurts Williams is the team's running quarterback. If the Panthers have any sense whatsoever -- and we're assuming that they do -- they'll take advantage of Cam Newton's running ability, especially around the goal line. Therefore, KUBIAK expects Williams' touchdowns to remain in the single digits; potentially in the low single digits.

Another reason why KUBIAK has him 12 spots lower than ADP in the running back rankings relates to our Establishment Clause. Namely: We're projecting the Panthers to repeat as doormats of the NFC South, so second-half carries are likely to be the fantasy football equivalent of Elvis sightings.

DeSean Jackson

WR Rank per KUBIAK: 23
WR Rank per ADP: 8

Don't get us wrong, Jackson has undeniable talent. He's also the Blake Griffin of the NFL: seemingly every one of his touches ends up on that night's highlight reel. The problem for KUBIAK is that he doesn't touch the ball enough to warrant WR1 status. As we pointed out in Football Outsiders Almanac 2011, Jackson tends to have far fewer targets than other No. 1 wide receivers, he only catches about half of those targets, and his drops aren't necessarily due to the fact that he runs a lot of deep routes.

As an example, compare Jackson's numbers to KUBIAK's ninth-ranked wide receiver, Mike Wallace. Just like Jackson (96), Wallace (98) had about 100 targets last season. Just like Jackson (24 percent), Wallace (27 percent) was near the league lead in terms of the percentage of targets that travelled farther than 25 yards in the air. However, Wallace's overall catch rate was 61 percent, which was much better than Jackson's 49 percent.

Finally, from a regression-to-the-mean perspective, Jackson's 22.5 yards per catch last season is such an outlier that it would be shocking if he duplicated it this season. If you give him the same catch rate and prorate his targets to 16 games, but cut his receiving average to an awesome-but-potentially-repeatable 18.0, he ends up with about 100 fewer yards.

Vincent Jackson

WR Rank per KUBIAK: 16
WR Rank per ADP: 5

We'll leave you with yet another player whose positional ADP ranking seems to be the result of people falling in love with his potential, and ignoring the fact that he's never been as good a fantasy point scorer as ADP projects. First, he suffers from the same target-siphoning that DeSean Jackson does. His first two seasons, Vincent Jackson had about 100 targets. Last season, his pro-rated targets come out to only 92 even if you set aside his zero-target first game back.

Second, we currently have Jackson set at a red risk level, which may or may not change between now and the beginning of the season. However, even if we improve it to yellow for KUBIAK purposes, that still only makes him the 10th-best player in the wide receiver rankings. So, as was the case with Stafford and Kolb, KUBIAK isn't saying Jackson will be bad; just that he probably won't be worthy of the pick he's likely to go at in your fantasy draft.

Posted by: Danny Tuccitto on 30 Aug 2011

38 comments, Last at 02 Sep 2011, 5:00pm by Alternator

Comments

1
by chemical burn :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 3:39pm

I guess I'm completely FO indoctrinated: none of these surprise me in the slightest.

21
by Theo :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 8:47pm

It's not called indoctrinated if you're supporting it. You're FO educated.

22
by BrickHithouse (not verified) :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 9:15pm

Everyone's a lawyer

2
by andrew :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 3:40pm

The last two years Kubiak has had me drafting Mendenhall higher than most people had him pegged at. That worked out pretty well. It landed me him again this year.

Still, the tendency on some of these is to not take them even when Kubiak says they are the best remaining simply because you don't think anyone else will take them another time around. I lost out on Roberts that way in one draft...

28
by frievalt :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 3:48am

There are no sleepers in FF anymore. Get your guys before someone else does.

3
by tally :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 3:51pm

The KUBIAK sleepers ended going earlier than expected in my draft last night. Big Ben in round 3 and Benson in round 5.

I think I saw Ryan Mathews a little high on my draft board as well, so he might be a mini-sleeper.

6
by 0tarin :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 4:34pm

Mathews was a surprising climber on my board as well due to KUBIAK's influence. I ended up snagging him in round 6, one pick before Benson (who I just didn't trust).

I was largely ridiculed for picking up Roethlisberger in the 5th, so it would seem that my league's owners agreed with "the crowd" in this regard.

4
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 4:13pm

Joseph Addai: "Furthermore, when a player misses a ton of games due to injury, human fantasy owners just assume he's going to miss a ton of games the next season. In reality, injuries are, of course, unpredictable. It's the good ol' availability heuristic at play."

Matthew Stafford: "The reason KUBIAK sees him as more of a QB2 is that, for all his potential, Stafford's constant injury woes have prevented him from posting QB1-level fantasy stats thus far in his career."

FO: Eating your cake and having it, too.

7
by Tutenkharnage :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 4:54pm

In fairness, Addai has posted RB1-level fantasy stats in his career; Stafford hasn't. The two situations are similar but not identical.

12
by Danny Tuccitto :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 5:12pm

This.

26
by Theo :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 11:56pm

Ok, and WHY are the 2 similar but not identical?
Without any further explanation, those 2 statements seem odd next to each other.
With a comment selected from the random youtube comment generator, I'm not convinced.

29
by Mr Shush :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 6:47am

They're similar because both players have been injured a lot. They're not identical because in 2007 Addai had 1436 yards from scrimmage and 15 total touchdowns, which constitutes a very high end fantasy performance, whereas Stafford's best fantasy performance to date involved a rather unimpressive 2267 yards, 13 touchdowns and 20 interceptions, which constitutes fantasy suckage. KUBIAK knows that when healthy, Addai has been a good fantasy player. It doesn't know that Stafford has looked amazing this pre-season. For what it's worth, I think there's every chance KUBIAK is wrong about both players: the Colts line is inhumanly terrible, and if Stafford stays healthy he may well play at a very high level.

35
by eefly :: Thu, 09/01/2011 - 7:47am

There may well be other reasons why Addai has potential that Stafford does not, but if the author thinks that injuries are truly unpredictable, then it does not seem that the injury history should have a negative influence in one case but not in the other. Hence the having your cake and eating it too comment.

Perhaps the claim is not that KUBIAK downgraded Stafford due to injury history, but that the injury history (among other factors, perhaps) is the actual cause of a dearth of statistical evidence that Stafford can produce at a high level. It is that lack of evidence that explains the relatively low KUBIAK rating, and not the injury history as such.

36
by Mr Shush :: Thu, 09/01/2011 - 10:26am

I think that's pretty much how I'd read the comment, yes.

Also worth bearing in mind that predictability is a continuum, not a binary opposition, and "unpredictable" in this context probably means "not very predictable" rather than "completely impossible to make useful predictions about".

38
by Alternator :: Fri, 09/02/2011 - 5:00pm

Secondary possibility: Stafford has been injured for both his seasons in the NFL, while Addai has survived before without injury. One has a consistent history and known, lasting medical problems, while the other is very likely just a one-off.

5
by JoeHova :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 4:33pm

Sanguine means optimistic, not pessimistic.

8
by Disco Stu :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 4:59pm

that word... I do not think it means what you think it means

11
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 5:06pm

Merriam-Webster agrees it means optimistic...

14
by CBPodge :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 5:37pm

Plus, point of interest, it also means "bloody". That pretty much covers all the options, doesn't it?

32
by The Powers That Be :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:38am

And Mal means bad. In the Latin.

16
by Intropy :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 5:41pm

Clearly KUBIAK does not become too full of blood in relation to other humors when predicting LLoyd's season.

Sanguine can definitely mean "hopeful." It could also mean "bold," in the sense that the model could be less sure what's going to happen, but "hopeful" is probably the best match in context.

23
by JoeHova :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 9:23pm

I do not think you realize what "means" means.

27
by Scott C :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 3:14am

I don't think you get the movie reference.

In that context, the word did mean what the user thought, but the context misled those ignorant of its definition.

30
by andrew :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 7:25am

Natrone Means Business.

9
by prs130 (not verified) :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 5:00pm

I'm a little confused about the running QB = bad RB season equation. Michael Vick did not negatively effect LeSean McCoy's overall production - quite the opposite. Why the distinction with Cam Newton and DeA Williams?

10
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 5:04pm

Fantasy stats are volume-based, not rate-based.

13
by 0tarin :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 5:37pm

I think the commenter means that last year, both Vick and McCoy were solid Fantasy producers, so why couldn't a similar level of synergy exist between Newton and Williams?

My only guess would be that since Newton is an unproven rookie who will be expected to go through some growing pains, teams are unlikely to worry as much about his ability to throw and protect against running more so than they did against Vick last year. Vick has demonstrated the ability to (at least somewhat reliably) punish teams that stack the box against him; Newton has garnered no such respect thus far.

15
by CBPodge :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 5:40pm

KUBIAK still projects both Williams and Stewart (in FOA anyway) for around 1,000 yards, but only 3 TDs each. McCoy, on a much better team and as the obvious feature back, only put up 7 TDs last year.

17
by Danny Tuccitto :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 5:42pm

For the record, Vick "stole" 90 carries and 9 rushing TDs from McCoy last year. The TDs are the most troublesome as it relates to DeAngelo. 5 of Vick's 9 rush TDs were 5 yards or shorter, 8 were 10 yards or shorter, and all 9 were inside 20 yards. Basically, Vick was vulturing McCoy's red zone carries. That's what KUBIAK's expecting in the Williams/Newton scenario (not to mention the Williams/Stewart/Newton scenario).

Also, as pointed out, CAR's O can't realistically be expected to produce as many carries and yards as PHI's. There's a lot less offensive volume to spread around to begin with.

19
by Yaguar :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 7:15pm

And especially, CAR's O can't be expected to produce as many TDs.

18
by alexbond :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 6:54pm

What about Calvin Johnson? Kubiak is not wild about him but his ADP is at the end of the 1st round.

20
by Sergio :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 7:41pm

My KUBIAK-assisted team by round:

1. Rashard Mendenhall
2. Steven Jackson
3. Reggie Wayne
4. Miles Austin
5. Cedric Benson
6. Brandon Llyod
7. Eli Manning
8. Beanie Wells
9. Reggie Bush
10. Brandon Jacobs
11. Andre Roberts
12. Chad Henne
13. New York Giants
14. Billy Cundiff
15. Tony Moeaki

I admittedly went homer with Bush and Henne, though at least with Bush I got some value. However by picking Bush instead of Jacobs I missed out on AJ Green in round 11, who went two picks before mine.

I'm a very happy camper, though. It's a 2 WR league, so I feel I'm strong at every position.

-- Go Phins!

24
by hokieneer :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 10:42pm

I would have loved to have landed Wayne/Austin in the 3rd/4th. I picked 12th of 12 and took Forte & Felix Jones with those picks. The WR selection by that time was very thin

25
by Sergio :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 11:24pm

I had my eye on other receivers, but they were gone by the time I picked.

I would've gladly taken Andre Johnson in the second, but he went a pick before mine. So I went BPA. Jennings went two picks before I settled on Wayne. On the 4th it was either Vincent Jackson or Austin; I might come to regret this pick later on.

I picked 10/12, btw.

-- Go Phins!

31
by Shawn :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:10am

I did an auction for the first time this year, and LOVED it with KUBIAK. I have Roethlisberger, Benson, and Roberts, (and didn't bid on Addai or Lloyd because of when they were nominated) all because I was able to get them below value. I always had a tough time drafting with KUBIAK because I'd let someone go by an extra round thinking they were undervalued, and someone would snatch them up right before I could sometimes. But with an auction, I know if they go above a threshold, I'm not getting the value for them, so I just pass. So much easier.

So consider this post an endorsement of both KUBIAK and Auction drafting - especially used together!

33
by snik75 (not verified) :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 12:44pm

So I can keep one player, using a draft spot. Would you all rather have Matt Forte with a second rounder, Matt Ryan with a 6th rounder, Dwayne Bowe with a third or Fred Jackson with a twelfth? It is possible I will not then be able to cut that player, so leaning toward Ryan. Thanks! Nick

34
by ODBvernon :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 5:26pm

It depends on where you draft in said round and who the other players are keeping. It also depends heavily on who the other owners are keeping (and if you don't know for sure, try to make an educated guess). If you're losing a shot at a lot of top end RBs and draft at the end of the 2nd round, I'd take Forte (in my league with a similar style where nine out of 12 kept RBs, he went #8 overall).

If you are drafting at the top of the first and have a shot at a cornerstone RB, that also means you draft at the end of the 6th - where Matt Ryan would be of great value. But if no one else is keeping a QB and/or you draft at the end of the first round, you'd likely be able to get him in the 5th as is.

Fred Jackson as someone you can't cut is scary, but there's no way in hell he drops below round 7/8 in any format and in my league (with fairly savvy owners), he went at the end of the 5th.

Forte - if you draft early in the first and there is a lack of quality RBs available to take

Ryan - if you draft early and there are still RBs available and/or there are 2-3 other elite QBs already off the board

Jackson - the best move from ROI standpoint by far, but lacks the impact of a high-end keeper. I like this one if you have a high draft pick and there are some high quality guys to nab there so you're starting off with a great #1 RB and a decent #2/3 guy way late. This frees you up to go after a premium TE or a high end #2 WR early in the draft when other guys are still trying to fill their "main" four spots (QB, RB, WR, #2 RB).

Hope this helps, but there is no clear-cut "hot damn, do that!" decision to be made here.

37
by snik75 (not verified) :: Thu, 09/01/2011 - 9:44pm

Thanks! I'm drafting 5th of 10. I'll go with Jackson, I think.