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28 Feb 2013

Lewin Career Forecast 2013

by Aaron Schatz

Even before they ever took the field, most NFL observers knew the quarterback class of 2012 was going to be one of the better ones in recent years. Scouts generally listed Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III as the two best quarterback prospects since at least 2004, and maybe even since Peyton Manning back in 1998. And when Football Outsiders applied our statistical formula, the Lewin Career Forecast, it came out in total agreement with the scouts. Luck came out as one of the top ten quarterback prospects since 1998, and Griffin topped Philip Rivers to set a new record for the best-ever projection using the LCF system.

Or at least, he would have, except that there was one other player who had an even higher projection than Griffin: Wisconsin quarterback Russell Wilson. The idea of Wilson as one of the strongest prospects ever seemed ridiculous at the time. We dubbed Wilson "The Asterisk" and tried to explain why his projection might be incorrect. The system is only meant to be used on players chosen in the first two days of the draft, and most people didn't think Wilson was going until the third day. We thought the system overrated his senior improvement because he had transferred from North Carolina State to Wisconsin. And LCF couldn't account for his height because no quarterback under six feet had ever been drafted in the first three rounds.

Seattle then drafted "The Asterisk" in the third round, and he led them to the playoffs with the highest DVOA rating of any of the rookie quarterbacks. The moral of the story: You always need to use common sense when analyzing a statistical projection system that doesn't incorporate everything that scouts can learn from watching film. But unexpected numbers may be telling you something.

That's an important lesson when looking at the 2013 draft class, because the LCF likes this class a lot more than the scouts. This year's top prospects rank among the highest we've ever tracked, even though none are seen right now as first-round talents. Will players like Geno Smith and Matt Barkley rank with Colt McCoy and Brady Quinn as the LCF's biggest failures? Or will one of these players surprise like Russell Wilson?

There are seven variables involved in the Lewin Career Forecast:

  • Career college games started
  • Career completion rate. Because of recent rises in completion rate across college football, this is a logarithmic variable, so that as a quarterback's completion percentage goes down, the penalty for low completion percentage gets gradually larger.
  • Difference between the quarterback's BMI and 28.0. This creates a small penalty for quarterbacks who don't exactly conform to the "ideal quarterback size."
  • For quarterbacks who come out as seniors, the difference in NCAA passer rating between their junior and senior seasons. (For quarterbacks who come out as juniors or redshirt sophomores, this variable is always 5.0, which is the average increase for the seniors in our data set.)
  • A binary variable that penalizes quarterbacks who don't play for a team in a BCS-qualifying conference.
  • Run-pass ratio in the quarterback's final college season.
  • Total rushing yards in the quarterback's final college season.

These last two variables work together to penalize both quarterbacks who scramble too often and quarterbacks who take a lot of sacks (since sacks are counted as negative runs in college), while pocket quarterbacks who are successful when they do run (Andrew Luck, for example) get a bonus.

The projection number represents an estimate for passing DYAR in years 3-5 of a player's career. (DYAR, or Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement, is explained here.) The top prospects will be above 1,200 DYAR, and you should avoid quarterbacks below zero.

Geno Smith, West Virginia: 2,064 DYAR

Smith is the kind of prospect that the LCF loves: He's a three-year starter with a high (67.4 percent) completion rate, and he's mobile but a passer first. The LCF also likes that his stats improved in his senior year, which suggests he's still learning and growing in the position. Unfortunately, the LCF isn't looking at Smith's game-by-game record in 2012, which was astoundingly inconsistent. West Virginia ranked 122nd out of 124 teams when it came to variance in Football Outsiders' Offensive FEI metric. He struggled against teams with strong pass defenses, like Kansas State and TCU, and those are the games teams need to look at before they decide if Geno Smith is worth a first-round pick.

Matt Barkley, USC: 1,812 DYAR

Barkley is a four-year starter, and despite the success of players like Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers, games started in college still correlates with NFL success more than any other factor. However, Barkley did decline slightly as a senior. What about the "USC curse?" Well, Matt Leinart fell far short of his LCF projection, but Mark Sanchez has only fallen slightly short of his because LCF didn't rate him highly to begin with. And while Carson Palmer may no longer be an above-average NFL starter, he far surpassed his projection. (People tend to forget how good Palmer was in his first few seasons.)

Check out Matt Waldman's Futures piece on Matt Barkley here.

Ryan Nassib, Syracuse: 1,506 DYAR

Nassib is a three-year starter who improved significantly in his final season, although his career completion rate isn't as high as you would like (only 60.4 percent). He seems to be climbing up the draft boards of the various draft experts across the Web, although that doesn't tell us what teams think about him. After the Bills hired his college coach Doug Marrone, Nassib to the Bills in the second round is too obvious not to happen.

E.J. Manuel, Florida State: 1,270 DYAR

The MVP of the Senior Bowl was a better college quarterback than you might realize, with a 66.9 percent completion rate and three years of starting experience. I've seen articles comparing him to Blaine Gabbert, and other articles comparing him to Terrelle Pryor, which is somewhat like saying that something tastes like both steak and jelly beans.

Check out Matt Waldman's thoughts on E.J. Manuel here.

Tyler Wilson, Arkansas: 425 DYAR

Wilson doesn't come out well because he has only been a starter for two seasons, and he declined a little in his senior year. There may be extenuating circumstances: according to FO college analyst Brian Fremeau, Arkansas played the sixth-hardest schedule of opposing defenses in the country last year. Scouts like Wilson's feel in the pocket, but he takes more sacks than you might expect. Remember, sacks count as runs in college football, and for his career Wilson had 110 runs for -44 yards.

Check out Matt Waldman's Futures piece on Tyler Wilson here.

Tyler Bray, Tennessee: -201 DYAR

Phrases you don't want to be associated with when you come out with a year of eligibility remaining: immature, inconsistent, "lack of decision-making ability." Completion rate you don't want to be associated with when you come out with a year of eligibility remaining: 58.6 percent.

Check out Matt Waldman's Futures piece on Tyler Bray here.

Mike Glennon, North Carolina State: -379 DYAR

Glennon has only two seasons as a starter, because he was sitting behind Russell Wilson. Glennon's stats as a junior (62.5 percent comp. rate, 6.7 yards per attempt, 136.4 passer rating) are actually better than Wilson's stats the year before as a redshirt junior with the same program (58.4 percent, 6.8, and 127.5). But this is where we see the importance of steady improvement. Wilson's performance blossomed in his senior season, when he transferred to Wisconsin, while Glennon's performance as a senior declined. (He led the nation with 17 interceptions.) The other problem with Glennon may be his body type, because he's extremely skinny. We'll have to see how he comes out at the combine, but last year he was listed at 6-foot-7 and 220 pounds, a 24.8 BMI. No quarterback since 1998 has been drafted in the first three rounds with a BMI below 26.

The Asterisk Part II

Landry Jones, Oklahoma: 2,276 DYAR

The LCF is built to apply only to quarterbacks chosen in the first three rounds of the draft. After that, quarterback success and failure becomes too difficult to predict. Part of the concept of the system is that scouts will do a good enough job identifying "system quarterbacks" so that those quarterbacks whose college stats are much better than their pro potential will naturally fall to the third day of the draft.

So here's Landry Jones, who will rank with the fourth-highest projection ever -- unless he doesn't get taken in the first three rounds. This time, we can't use excuses like we did with Russell Wilson. Jones has been starting at Oklahoma for four years and has prototype quarterback size. But scouts have pinned a number of red flags on him. He seems like the Colt McCoy of this year's class, although his issue isn't arm strength like McCoy's was. Jones has fine arm strength, but he's immobile and many scouts believe he wilts under pressure. Issues with mechanics and footwork were often hidden by an Oklahoma spread offense that involved lots of quick-developing screen passes.

Perhaps some team will figure out a way to solve Jones' problems, grab him in the third round, and turn him into a quality NFL starter. Or he may drop to the fifth and be forgotten as just another college system quarterback-turned-NFL flop. It's just another example how, when it comes to picking future talent, even the most stat-oriented of us know that numbers complement scouting. They don't replace scouting.

(This article originally appeared at ESPN Insider. There was one quarterback we left out of the ESPN article, because he probably won't go in the top three rounds. If he does, Zac Dysert of Miami of Ohio has a projection of 1,131 DYAR, including the penalty for non-BCS conferences.)

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 28 Feb 2013

57 comments, Last at 28 Apr 2013, 6:54pm by Theo

Comments

1
by SGMD1 (not verified) :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 11:33am

I still can't get over last year's LCF. That Russell Wilson prediction is still the best one I've ever read.

22
by dmb :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 8:15pm

What's really cool is that both LCF and Matt Waldman tabbed him as special.

28
by BigWoody (not verified) :: Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:56am

You knooww...I think I'll get one of those jerseys that you can put whatever you want on it. A Seahawk jersey that has Wilson on it and an asterisk instead of a number.

29
by Jerry :: Fri, 03/01/2013 - 1:03am

You can always get yourself a Robo-Punter jersey, which will mean as much.

2
by Thunderbolt of ... :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 11:47am

I still don't see why Glennon is considered a top prospect, other than the fact that he looks like Dan McGwire.

5
by Chill (not verified) :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 12:09pm

You are very right. Glennon is an awful player, perhaps the worst QB prospect I've ever seen. I would take random UDFA QB over Glennon. Even after seeing what he's done in the pros, I would take Blaine Gabbert, whom I never liked, 100 times out of 100. Horrible accuracy. Horrible decision making. Much weaker arm than people claim. I was shocked when I looked into his actual play.

44
by nath :: Wed, 03/06/2013 - 9:34pm

He has a huge arm and can make all the throws.

He just can't make them accurately or consistently, and he will snap in two the first time a large man sacks him at full speed.

3
by Joe T. :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 12:03pm

Re: Glennon - a tall skinny qb was just named SB MVP. Not comparing Glennon to Flacco, but it seems silly to knock a guy for his BMI when his height is maybe a little over the consensus optimal height for the position and weight can be increased, but criticize conventional draft analysis for discounting Wilson due to his height being well under the consensus optimal height.

4
by Thunderbolt of ... :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 12:09pm

I don't think Glennon's BMI or height has as much to do with discounting his performance as the fact that his numbers just weren't that good. When people project Glennon as a top prospect, ALL they're looking at is his build and arm strength.

6
by Collapsing Pocket (not verified) :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 12:41pm

Flacco is listed at 245. Definitely tall but not exactly a bean pole.

7
by Joe T. :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 12:53pm

He was 230 when drafted. College players typically add weight with pro training. Tom Brady was 6-5, 211 as a college senior.

10
by mehlLageman56 (not verified) :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 2:08pm

I wonder if part of the reason quarterbacks taller than 6-5 have had problems (excepting Flacco) is that they have a larger target area to hit, and generally are less mobile, thus taking more hits.

20
by Ender808 (not verified) :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 6:31pm

Actually it has to do with leg length. Once you get beyond a certain height it makes footwork much more difficult when working behind a center, which is why they often find success working from the gun in college but fail at the NFL level

8
by The Powers That Be :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 1:43pm

In yesterday's Futures column, Matt wrote "complement" where he meant "compliment." Here, Aaron writes "compliment" where he means "complement." On average, you guys are doing great: kudos!

9
by Scott Crowder (not verified) :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 1:57pm

He needs to complement his compliments with an editing tool.

16
by Aaron Schatz :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 4:41pm

Crud. I hate making mistakes like that. I will go fix both articles.

30
by Podge (not verified) :: Fri, 03/01/2013 - 5:33am

Good stuff. Keep up the good work.

Just to be clear this is a ... crap... I don't know whether it's a compliment or a complement any more! What have you done to me?

11
by mehlLageman56 (not verified) :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 2:10pm

As a Jets fan I now promise to not riot if they draft Barkley. Thanks Football Outsiders for keeping Radio City Music Hall whole.

13
by Kevin from Philly :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 2:36pm

How about if they draft Glennon?

BTW, if the Eagles draft Barkley, I will riot in my living room.

14
by mehlLageman56 (not verified) :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 3:27pm

Well, since I live in Oregon and will probably be working, I think Radio City has nothing to fear from me. Whether I submit to another year of punishment watching the Jets on TV is another matter. I doubt anyone will draft Glennon in the first two rounds.
As far as rioting if the Eagles draft Barkley, if they take him in the first round you would be justified. Just note that Chip Kelly faced Barkley a lot at Oregon, and purportedly had more respect for him than Andrew Luck.

26
by JonFrum :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 11:29pm

Not a good sign for Eagles fans.

36
by Mehllageman56 (not verified) :: Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:55pm

Look above. Barkley may actually work out; taking a good quarterback early in the second round is a pretty damn good scenario. He would also fit a west coast offense like Shurmur's. Perhaps Kelly will only implement his fast paced style, and not his actual college offense, which would be a smart thing to do.

12
by Led :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 2:17pm

The Landry Jones forecast jives with my impression of him. He's a very good QB irrationally discounted by scouts based on lack of the ineffable winner sauce.

54
by TA (not verified) :: Sat, 04/27/2013 - 2:42pm

As an OU fan who has watched Landry closely throughout his college career, I've never seen another QB with such incredible talent that was also so maligned by fans. He has a ridiculous arm - better in my opinion than the gentleman he replaced in OU's lineup - but his biggest opponents always cite his happy feet in the pocket, and his demeanor (he doesn't have the charisma of a great leader) as his biggest detriments. Maturity and poise come with time, and I won't be shocked at all if ge turns out to be a top 10 NFL QB in a few years.

55
by TA (not verified) :: Sat, 04/27/2013 - 2:42pm

As an OU fan who has watched Landry closely throughout his college career, I've never seen another QB with such incredible talent that was also so maligned by fans. He has a ridiculous arm - better in my opinion than the gentleman he replaced in OU's lineup - but his biggest opponents always cite his happy feet in the pocket, and his demeanor (he doesn't have the charisma of a great leader) as his biggest detriments. Maturity and poise come with time, and I won't be shocked at all if ge turns out to be a top 10 NFL QB in a few years.

15
by timmys24@yahoo.com :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 4:19pm

I'd be curious to see how these projections compare to the original Lewin Career Forecast projections.

And were original Lewin Forecast projections made for 2012 prospects as well?

17
by Theo :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 6:01pm

Who are the skinny QBs that made BMI a part of LCF? I understand who the fat guys are (I can think of Jamarcus Russell) but the skinny?

18
by Judd (not verified) :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 6:11pm

Ponder was the second highest ranked in 2011.

19
by Sifter :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 6:22pm

The original LCF 2011 article has Ponder behind Dalton, Kaepernick, Gabbert, Locker and Mallett (Stanzi too). Only guy he's ahead of is Cam Newton. Where was Ponder ranked 2nd?

21
by CoachDave :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 7:03pm

I don't ever see E.J. Manuel being any sort of a decent NFL QB for two reasons.

1) His decision making can best be described as "Twilight Zone-ish". He can have 2, 3 and sometimes 4 drives in a row where you start to think, "wow, this kid is for real" and then he makes a throw that is complete bizarro world. Usually it's a pick and many times it's such a bad read, the defender gets a pick six or a lot of return yardage because there wasn't a FSU kid within 10 yards to make the tackle.

2) (Which is highly related to #1)...he routinely loses his (blank) in the face of any sort of rush. And I'm not talking...throws off his back foot panic....I'm talking "holy &#@!" full-tilt, chuck it up and pray panic.

The kid a walking, talking "Coach killer" if I've ever seen one. If your GM drafts this kid in round two...get your resume ready and rent, don't buy, cause you are going to need a new job in 2-3 years.

23
by dmb :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 8:18pm

I don't watch college ball, so I don't know if this has been the case for Manuel, but from your description of his play it sounds like Manuel's receivers could be to blame. If they make incorrect reads (or fail to recognize when they're hot), it would result in picks where no teammate is to be found.

24
by anderson721 (not verified) :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 9:20pm

I can't say I've watched him enough to have an intelligent read on his ability, but I will say that of all the Senior Bowl/Combine interviews I've heard, his stands out as the best. So if he can't play, he can broadcast. I guess.

33
by Dean :: Fri, 03/01/2013 - 8:50am

I haven't seen him week in week out, but as an alum of a different ACC school, I saw several of his games and had the same impression. then again, that never stopped anyone from drafting the dogkiller.

25
by SackSEER :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 11:16pm

Kudos on the Wilson pick. Even though FO tried to walk it back a little, it is still a big hit for the system.

The LCF is consistent with my thinking that the talking heads are greatly exaggerating the lack of talent at the QB position in this draft. Some have suggested that there isn't a quarterback worth a first round pick. To me, Geno Smith is a more than genuine first-round QB prospect. He has his warts as a prospect for sure, but he has so much to his credit: amazing productivity and accuracy, great speed, tons of experience, a pocket QB's sensibility, and (from all indications) pretty strong character and intelligence. And by golly, we live in world where Jake Locker is a top ten draft pick.

Memories are so short. The embarrassment of riches of last year's class has skewed the conventional wisdom too much against this class. This isn't 1997 when Jake Plummer is the best thing out there.

-----------
Sorry JPP!

27
by JonFrum :: Thu, 02/28/2013 - 11:31pm

Smith looked great against some bad defenses, and suffered against some good ones. The defenses won't be getting any worse in the NFL.

31
by Podge (not verified) :: Fri, 03/01/2013 - 5:35am

A somewhat random question: what happens to Geno Smith's projection if you take the bad part of his final year and pro-rate that for the whole year? If his poor second half was an issue of defences figuring him out (or him actually playing against actually decent teams) that might make for an interesting projection.

32
by Podge (not verified) :: Fri, 03/01/2013 - 5:39am

Also, just as a bit of a help to compare to past years (in articles like this and similar ones), could you give links to articles for past years at the bottom? I think you tend to do this for stuff like revisting past drafts, where it's useful and interesting. Could do with this here (I know there's one in 2012).

35
by Jerry :: Fri, 03/01/2013 - 9:42am
46
by LionInAZ :: Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:34am

That's too easy. I'd like to see the 2009-10 prrdictions.

47
by Jerry :: Fri, 03/08/2013 - 4:14am

Ingrate.

(At this point, you can dig them up as easily as I can.)

48
by LionInAZ :: Sat, 03/09/2013 - 7:53pm

My apologies. My comment was meant more for Aaron than you. My searches for the LCF from before 2011 on FO turned up little beyond vague discussions.

34
by rlmthree :: Fri, 03/01/2013 - 8:59am

Looks like the Browns will get another chance to ride the LCF roller coaster... going down.

37
by Mehllageman56 (not verified) :: Fri, 03/01/2013 - 1:02pm

My main issue with the quarterbacks in the draft is that they all have committed really stupid plays. It seems that the only ones to not have thrown picks to defensive linemen are Geno Smith and Barkley, and Smith gave up two safetys in the bowl game. My main problem with Geno is that he looked like he did not want to be in the cold in New York, which would make me write him off for the Bills and Jets, at least. They all give me Sanchez flashbacks.

38
by justanothersteve :: Fri, 03/01/2013 - 2:46pm

Even the best QBs commit stupid plays. Brady throwing only one yard on fourth-and-two. A few of P Manning's INTs in the playoffs. I can't even count the number of Favre's Jethro Bodine plays. Just like great CBs get beat. It happens.

40
by mehlLageman56 (not verified) :: Fri, 03/01/2013 - 10:42pm

It is one thing to throw to throw to a a receiver for only one yard on a fourth and two, and quite another to throw a perfect strike to a defensive lineman while being tackled, which Nassib did this past year. Dysert committed the same bonehead play without even being pressured. I have never seen Brady or Manning do this. Brady once had a ball tipped up and run back by a Miami lineman for a touchdown, but it was a batted pass. You're correct that Favre committed a bunch of bonehead plays, that was his style. He also was drafted in the second round and traded by his original team, and was even threatened with a benching after his second season starting in Green Bay. He turned things around; it would be a lot to expect that of any of these quarterbacks.
I should point out that Smith, Barkley and Manuel did not throw strikes to defensive linemen, they committed the normal bonehead plays that have plagued their draft status, throwing into triple covered receivers and taking two safetys in the same game, etc.

56
by Lelouch vi Britannia (not verified) :: Sun, 04/28/2013 - 2:25pm

Throwing only one yard on fourth and two isn't a very boneheaded decision. Just by falling forward, the receiver would be able to convert easily. That's not unreasonable to expect.

39
by zenbitz :: Fri, 03/01/2013 - 2:56pm

Might have be readjusted for Kaepernick (going back a couple years)... if a gimmicky college offense is now an NFL offense is it still gimmicky?

41
by vmania :: Sat, 03/02/2013 - 10:40am

I wouldnt touch Landry Jones......just like Gabbert's testicles shrunk in 2 games against Nebraska and led me to believe he wouldn't make it, Landry Jones absolutely melted after Teo blasted him in the Notre Dame game...methinks he has Gabbert's heart...all he will ever be is the next John Friesz.

42
by vmania :: Sat, 03/02/2013 - 10:42am

I want to hear who Raiderjoe's fave QB is out of this class since there is at least about a 50 % chance the Raiders go QB at #3 overall......I will defer to the much renowned greatness of Raiderjoe.

43
by mehlLageman56 (not verified) :: Mon, 03/04/2013 - 10:55pm

Just watched a bunch of David Fales youtube videos vs Stanford and BYU. It's amazing how much better next year's draft is for quarterbacks. Fales looks better than Geno Smith, and he's probably the fourth best qb next year, behind Bridgewater, Boyd and Johnny Football. They all look really really good. You know what else I saw in the BYU highlights? Ansah getting single blocked by a running back. Pity the Fool team who drafts him.

45
by nath :: Thu, 03/07/2013 - 4:38am

"There may be extenuating circumstances: according to FO college analyst Brian Fremeau, Arkansas played the sixth-hardest schedule of opposing defenses in the country last year."

Or, you know, the fact that his team had to make an emergency one-year hire of perhaps the worst coach in FBS.

49
by Pete (not verified) :: Thu, 03/14/2013 - 10:38pm

I know he will most likely fall into a middle round and he has limited experience, but it would have been interesting to see how Matt Scott compares with the group shown.

50
by Kanye (not verified) :: Tue, 04/09/2013 - 10:06pm

Isn't this the same system that forecasts Brady Quinn, Jason Campbell, Cliff Pennington, Colt McCoy, and Carson Palmer to be among the best QBs of all time?

51
by Curt From Naperville (not verified) :: Mon, 04/22/2013 - 1:14pm

I think you mean Chad Pennington. Cliff Pennington is an infielder for the Diamondbacks. (And, in fairness, Chad Pennington had a couple of great seasons until injuries took over.)

If I remember correctly, the Lewin system projected Peyton Manning all over Ryan Leaf (albeit in retrospect), and said not to touch JaMarcus Russell with a 10-foot pole. It may not have been Nate Silver-in-2012 accurate, but it's had way more hits than misses.

57
by Theo :: Sun, 04/28/2013 - 6:54pm

Pennington was quite good until he was injured and Palmer was a stud for a few years early in his career in Cincy.
Many unpredictable variables (more than just talent) determine if someone becomes a productive player.

52
by Tanner (not verified) :: Wed, 04/24/2013 - 1:52am

I've only watched like the 7 or 8 YouTube scouting videos of Landry Jones, so maybe I'm not getting the entire the entire picture, but he looks like an absolute steal. Totally miffed as to why not considered a first round pick right now. Aaron's arguments as to why his LCF is higher than his standing among scouts don't seem to really hold any water; Smith and Barkley threw tons of quick developing screens, probably more than Jones, yet they don't seem to be questioned in this manner. Also, as far as I could observe, Oklahoma's offense actually seemed be geared to stretch the field. As far as being immobile and wilting under pressure, he seems to avoid the rush fine, especially on the few 2012 games I saw. The knocks against Jones seem similar to the ones made about Peyton Manning unable to "win the big ones", until he did.

So no character issues, great arm strength, accurate, football junkie, tons of experience--what gives?. I think he's being underrated exactly because, as one poster put it, he lacks the "winner sauce", which is bogus. I think Jones is one the safest picks you could make. His lowest possible comparison to me seems to be Matthew Stafford, high-end would be Tom Brady. I'm definitely more afraid of Geno Smith's inconsistency and Matt Barkley's size/arm strength/USC pedigree than of Jones' issues.

Okay, rant over. I mostly just want evidence in writing that I called Jones being a stud so I can brag to my friends in the future. I also like Manuel a lot. But obviously, all bets are off if either of them gets drafted by the Browns or Raiders.

53
by Mikey992 (not verified) :: Wed, 04/24/2013 - 9:30am

I've seen Matt Scot of Arizona as a 3rd rounder (even as high as 2nd). Did you run his numbers? If so, where did he shake out?