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The Jaguars' defensive tackle is a bit of a late bloomer, but he has become one of the bright spots in a dim season in Jacksonville.

22 Jul 2014

Catch Radius: The Bigger, the Better?

by Scott Kacsmar

Part I of our final catch radius study for 2013 featured seven of the best wide receivers in the NFC. Now we turn to the unlikely quarterback who has played with many great receivers.

We never would have imagined Josh McCown would be a relevant topic in 2014, but his career is a perfect example of why we should look at catch radii. If Alshon Jeffery and rookie Mike Evans turn their talent into the long kind of careers they're capable of, then McCown will have played with three of the best wide receiver duos in recent history. In fact, no quarterback may have ever had three distinctly separate pairs like this.

A young McCown had Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona. He wasn't too successful in that time, but he did only get 19 starts in 2004-05 and was still learning the position. Years later he wound up in Chicago, and last year he thrived in Marc Trestman's offense with bigger receivers in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. It's not every year that a 34-year-old journeyman quarterback has a career performance with 13 touchdowns and one interception. Now expected to start in Tampa Bay, McCown's receivers have only gotten bigger with the 6-foot-5 duo of Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans.

If McCown continues to play well in a different system with similar talent, it makes you wonder: is bigger the way to go at receiver if you're not confident at quarterback? I think most people would agree Boldin and Fitzgerald are the best receivers he's had, but they don't have the size these other four players possess. You still need to be accurate (like a Kurt Warner) to thrive with players like that, or else you end up like the 2012 Cardinals on offense. When McCown was younger, he couldn't consistently hit the target zone, but as an experienced player in Chicago, he never looked better with Marshall and Jeffery making tough catches for him.

Or was McCown actually accurate as his 66.5 completion percentage suggests? Let's look at the receiving breakdown for these five receivers in 2013. The average depth of reception (Dist) is included.

2013 Receptions Breakdown
Receiver Height Catches Dist Screens/Smoke
Vincent Jackson 6-5 78 11.6 0 (0.0%)
Alshon Jeffery 6-4 89 11.3 12 (13.5%)
Brandon Marshall 6-4 100 10.1 12 (12.0%)
Anquan Boldin 6-1 85 8.9 9 (10.6%)
Larry Fitzgerald 6-3 82 7.5 14 (17.1%)

Here are the catch radii for McCown's receivers (past and future) in 2013.

2013 Wide Receiver Catch Radii: Josh McCown's Jackpot
Type of Catch L.Fitzgerald Pct. A.Boldin Pct. B.Marshall Pct. A.Jeffery Pct. V.Jackson Pct.
Total 82 - 85 - 100 - 89 - 78 -
Chest-Level 38 46.3% 35 41.2% 36 36.0% 37 41.6% 49 62.8%
Chest-Low 2 2.4% 7 8.2% 6 6.0% 1 1.1% 1 1.3%
Chest-High 1 1.2% 3 3.5% 1 1.0% 2 2.2% 1 1.3%
Chest-All 41 50.0% 45 52.9% 43 43.0% 40 44.9% 51 65.4%
Above the head 6 7.3% 6 7.1% 13 13.0% 13 14.6% 8 10.3%
Below the waist 0 0.0% 3 3.5% 1 1.0% 0 0.0% 1 1.3%
Diving to ground 1 1.2% 3 3.5% 4 4.0% 5 5.6% 2 2.6%
Eye-level 15 18.3% 10 11.8% 21 21.0% 17 19.1% 10 12.8%
Over the shoulder 4 4.9% 3 3.5% 3 3.0% 5 5.6% 1 1.3%
Pass thrown wide 15 18.3% 15 17.6% 15 15.0% 9 10.1% 5 6.4%

Larry Fitzgerald

2013 was a solid rebound year for Fitzgerald, but he failed to eclipse 1,000 yards for the second straight season. His game tape showed a huge tendency, but this may say more about quarterback Carson Palmer than Fitzgerald. Palmer made an effort more than any quarterback studied to lead his receiver to the ball with passes thrown wide. I charted 15 of these plays, giving Fitzgerald a WIDE% of 18.3 percent (the highest yet). Here's just a sample of those catches.

Sometimes Palmer did well to lead Fitzgerald away from the defender, but sometimes he led him right into the hit. I only noted that six of the 15 wide catches were accurate throws to lead Fitzgerald. There were plays where Palmer was behind the receiver, and plays where his throw made Fitzgerald fall or dive to the ground to complete the play. Palmer wasn't hitting Fitzgerald in stride enough to really justify making all of these throws, but Fitzgerald has incredible hands and can pull the ball in from awkward positions.

Obviously we would have to study more Palmer and more Fitzgerald to see if this was anything more than a small-sample fluke, but that was the major thing I picked up on quickly while doing Fitzgerald's season. For reference, here's a table showing 12 NFC receivers and how many of their catches on passes thrown wide were good throws or too inaccurate (requiring a superior catch).

2013 Receptions Breakdown: Thrown Wide
Receiver Thrown Wide Rec. Good Throws Good%
Dez Bryant 12 8 66.7%
DeSean Jackson 12 7 58.3%
Jordy Nelson 10 5 50.0%
Julio Jones 4 2 50.0%
Vincent Jackson 5 2 40.0%
Anquan Boldin 15 6 40.0%
Larry Fitzgerald 15 6 40.0%
Pierre Garcon 16 6 37.5%
Brandon Marshall 15 5 33.3%
Victor Cruz 4 1 25.0%
Alshon Jeffery 9 2 22.2%
Calvin Johnson 6 1 16.7%

Anquan Boldin

My first choice for 2013's biggest Pro Bowl snub was Jordy Nelson, and my second was definitely Anquan Boldin. The 49ers attempted a league-low 417 passes last year, but Boldin was outstanding with 85 catches for 1,179 yards and seven touchdowns. He did more to elevate his passing offense than guys like Fitzgerald and DeSean Jackson, who both received credit for a Pro Bowl over Boldin. Watch how their production came and it's no contest that Boldin was better last season. When people are unfortunately still looking at things like Pro Bowls for Hall of Fame resumes, it hurts Boldin to not get that fourth selection for one of his best seasons.

Maybe he peaked early with 13 catches for 208 yards in Week 1 against Green Bay, but Boldin was dominant in other games by making tough catches. Colin Kaepernick's accuracy left a lot to be desired. While a lot of the young quarterbacks (like Ryan Tannehill and Andy Dalton) seem to be too high with the ball, Kaepernick was alarmingly too low at times. Boldin made three really tough catches below the waist (the most yet) where most receivers I've studied have had none. His seven chest-low catches were also one of the highest totals yet. Boldin had only three over-the-shoulder catches since he's not much of a deep threat, but one was thrown too far out in front of him. Boldin brought in three balls with one hand, which trailed only Garcon's four.

I've said enough on Boldin. Treat yourself to some visuals. That's Boldin making a tough catch high off the ground against Richard Sherman in the top left corner. Dead center, that's a catch against Tennessee. I thought the zoomed-out version best displayed the body control necessary to make a one-handed catch like that.

In today's game, a lot of receivers can have good numbers at the end of the year. Boldin ranked only 16th in receiving yards last year. But if we start paying more attention to how that production is gained, then a season like Boldin's last year would get more of the proper praise it deserves.

Da Twin Towers: Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery

We'll tackle these Chicago receivers together, though it may take an army of us to bring them down. Their catch radius percentages were very close across the board, though Jeffery caught two more over-the-shoulder catches because he was better on the deep routes. Both caught 13 passes above their head, with Jeffery having the highest rate (14.6 percent) studied.

Only 43.0 percent of Marshall's catches were chest-level -- the lowest rate yet. However, Jeffery's film was just more impressive. Unintentionally, I ended up capturing more highlights (10) from Jeffery than any other receiver.

We watched Marshall play at a high level in 2012, but last year was more about the breakout performance from Jeffery. Now the question is, did Jay Cutler or McCown rely on more of these miraculous catches last year? I split up the two receivers based on how they fared with each quarterback last year.

2013 Wide Receiver Catch Radii: Chicago Quarterbacks
Type of Catch Brandon Marshall Alshon Jeffery
J.Cutler Pct. J.McCown Pct. J.Cutler Pct. J.McCown Pct.
Total 64 - 36 - 50 - 39 -
Chest-Level 23 35.9% 13 36.1% 18 36.0% 19 48.7%
Chest-Low 4 6.3% 2 5.6% 1 2.0% 0 0.0%
Chest-High 1 1.6% 0 0.0% 1 2.0% 1 2.6%
Chest-All 28 43.8% 15 41.7% 20 40.0% 20 51.3%
Above the head 8 12.5% 5 13.9% 8 16.0% 5 12.8%
Below the waist 0 0.0% 1 2.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
Diving to ground 2 3.1% 2 5.6% 4 8.0% 1 2.6%
Eye-level 12 18.8% 9 25.0% 8 16.0% 9 23.1%
Over the shoulder 3 4.7% 0 0.0% 3 6.0% 2 5.1%
Pass thrown wide 11 17.2% 4 11.1% 7 14.0% 2 5.1%

Interesting. Cutler was more consistently wide with both receivers, and McCown was more consistently at eye-level, which I am still not sure is a bad thing for any quarterback. Cutler fared better with Marshall, which makes sense given their long history together. But McCown was a little more accurate with Jeffery. Either way, these two receivers made for a special offense in Chicago -- something we rarely get to say.

Vincent Jackson

How will McCown play with Jackson in Tampa Bay? Believe it or not, Jackson had easily the highest chest rate of these receivers at 65.4 percent last year. Most of that was with rookie Mike Glennon, but it would be criminal to say Jackson enjoyed accurate quarterback play in 2013. Glennon only completed 48.8 percent of his passes to Jackson, but I guess we have a "65 percent of 51 percent of the time, Glennon hits Jackson on the numbers every time" thing going on here. For example, we rightfully think of Jackson as a deep threat, but he had one over-the-shoulder catch last year and it didn't happen until December against the Panthers.

Incredibly, Jackson's two greatest catches of 2013 both came against Asante Samuel in the games against Atlanta. Jackson somehow clamped the first one with his arm to get it into his hands for a 59-yard touchdown. The second was just an absurd one-handed effort. Say what you want about Samuel's coverage skills falling off a cliff last season, but that's 106 yards and a score where he couldn't really do anything more (legally) to defend.

Could there ever be a better mentor for Mike Evans than Jackson? Maybe it's not ideal to have two guys so similar at the top of the depth chart, but McCown should like his options this year. Too bad Tampa Bay didn't keep Tiquan Underwood, because he might be 6-foot-5 too if we count his hair.

Conclusion

Here's a look at the catch radii for all 31 seasons studied to this point. The NFC receivers from the past two articles are in bold.

Summary of Wide Receiver Catch Radii Study
Receiver Year Team Rec. CHEST% EYE% ATH% DIVE% OTS% WIDE%
Mike Wallace 2012 PIT 64 79.7% 6.3% 3.1% 6.3% 3.1% 1.6%
Mike Wallace 2011 PIT 75 76.0% 4.0% 2.7% 4.0% 8.0% 4.0%
Keenan Allen 2013 SD 71 74.6% 12.7% 2.8% 5.6% 1.4% 2.8%
Mike Wallace 2013 MIA 73 74.0% 6.8% 2.7% 4.1% 5.5% 5.5%
Wes Welker 2013 DEN 73 71.2% 12.3% 5.5% 5.5% 4.1% 1.4%
Demaryius Thomas 2013 DEN 92 69.6% 12.0% 3.3% 0.0% 10.9% 4.3%
Brian Hartline 2012 MIA 74 67.6% 16.2% 10.8% 0.0% 4.1% 1.4%
Antonio Brown 2013 PIT 110 67.3% 14.5% 4.5% 3.6% 3.6% 5.5%
Rishard Matthews 2013 MIA 41 65.9% 12.2% 9.8% 2.4% 2.4% 7.3%
Vincent Jackson 2013 TB 78 65.4% 12.8% 10.3% 2.6% 1.3% 6.4%
Antonio Brown 2012 PIT 66 65.2% 10.6% 10.6% 4.5% 1.5% 4.5%
Emmanuel Sanders 2013 PIT 67 62.7% 10.4% 10.4% 9.0% 4.5% 1.5%
Kenny Stills 2013 NO 32 62.5% 15.6% 3.1% 9.4% 9.4% 0.0%
Antonio Brown 2011 PIT 74 62.2% 10.8% 12.2% 5.4% 1.4% 8.1%
Brian Hartline 2013 MIA 76 60.5% 25.0% 5.3% 3.9% 3.9% 1.3%
Doug Baldwin 2013 SEA 50 60.0% 16.0% 2.0% 2.0% 12.0% 8.0%
Receiver Year Team Rec. CHEST% EYE% ATH% DIVE% OTS% WIDE%
Brandon Gibson 2013 MIA 30 60.0% 23.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 6.7%
Eric Decker 2013 DEN 87 59.8% 14.9% 4.6% 3.4% 11.5% 5.7%
Calvin Johnson 2013 DET 84 58.3% 15.5% 10.7% 2.4% 6.0% 7.1%
Dez Bryant 2013 DAL 93 58.1% 14.0% 10.8% 0.0% 2.2% 12.9%
Marvin Jones 2013 CIN 51 56.9% 19.6% 9.8% 3.9% 0.0% 9.8%
Julio Jones 2013 ATL 41 53.7% 19.5% 12.2% 0.0% 4.9% 9.8%
Anquan Boldin 2013 SF 85 52.9% 11.8% 7.1% 3.5% 3.5% 17.6%
Pierre Garcon 2013 WAS 113 51.3% 20.4% 8.8% 2.7% 0.9% 14.2%
Larry Fitzgerald 2013 ARI 82 50.0% 18.3% 7.3% 1.2% 4.9% 18.3%
Victor Cruz 2013 NYG 73 47.9% 21.9% 13.7% 1.4% 8.2% 5.5%
Alshon Jeffery 2013 CHI 89 44.9% 19.1% 14.6% 5.6% 5.6% 10.1%
A.J. Green 2013 CIN 98 44.9% 28.6% 9.2% 1.0% 9.2% 7.1%
DeSean Jackson 2013 PHI 82 43.9% 22.0% 4.9% 1.2% 12.2% 14.6%
Jordy Nelson 2013 GB 85 43.5% 24.7% 10.6% 7.1% 2.4% 11.8%
Brandon Marshall 2013 CHI 100 43.0% 21.0% 13.0% 4.0% 3.0% 15.0%
AVERAGES 74.5 59.8% 15.9% 7.7% 3.5% 5.0% 7.4%

You know, Andy Dalton doesn’t look as inaccurate now. Then again, after watching more of the Herculean efforts by his receivers in the Cincinnati playoff loss, I think I was fair in that week's analysis.

We're putting catch radius to bed for now, but it will return next offseason. No stat is perfect, and in its infancy this one certainly has room to mature. Adding the receiver's drops can be helpful in determining their weaker areas. Factoring in throws made under pressure could give better context to the quarterback's accuracy. Maybe we need to stop worrying about perfect summation and start double counting catches if they're both wide and high. Trust me; that will have to be done if Matt Barkley sees the field in 2014.

One thing I will surely do in light of this week's data is to redo the 2011-12 data, because we did not have access to all the angles (All-22) we have for 2013. Maybe some of those Mike Wallace chest catches were actually thrown wide or at eye-level. I don't expect huge changes, but that needs to be done. This is time-consuming work, but it will be valuable if perfected.

It's silly to make any sweeping generalizations over what's been done so far, but my original hypothesis was that a taller receiver should be easier to hit in the chest region. He just presents a bigger target. What seems to be happening -- really stressing the word seems here -- is that the quarterbacks with the big receivers are taking full advantage of that size by putting the ball in places they think only that receiver will get it. Sometimes, especially in the red zone, that's a necessity to get a completion regardless of receiver size. But it almost feels like the quarterbacks are intentionally being less accurate ("giving a guy a chance"), because there is a margin for error that doesn't exist with the 5-foot-10 receiver.

If having a shorter receiver means the quarterback is forced to be more accurate a higher percentage of the time, then that sounds like a good thing to me. When Ben Roethlisberger says he wants a tall receiver, is he really just saying "I want to be able to miss throws more often, but still get the completion?" I don't know, but I think any exploration that tries to solve the quarterback-receiver connection is worth continuing.

Posted by: Scott Kacsmar on 22 Jul 2014

9 comments, Last at 23 Sep 2014, 2:24pm by

Comments

1
by lightsout85 :: Tue, 07/22/2014 - 2:57pm

Another awesome read! I loved this series.

I'm not sure if it jumped out watching VJ in 2013, but I know when he played for the Chargers it always seemed that on jump-balls he would make sure to jump extra high so he could catch it in a "basket" in his torso. I & many other fans often complained that he wasn't using the ball-skills we'd seen him show off before; that he was always body-catching passes.

2
by Scott Kacsmar :: Tue, 07/22/2014 - 3:26pm

Jackson definitely made most of his deep catches last year with his body or in an awkward position. The only real pretty pass in stride was the one against Carolina. I don't know if that was the case in SD, but I wouldn't mind going back to get at least his 2012 season with Tampa Bay too.

8
by lightsout85 :: Thu, 07/24/2014 - 1:29am

Deep or short, if Philip was putting the ball up in a jump-ball type situation**, he rarely reached up for it with his giant mitts. He jumped up so he could get it "in the bread basket". He was great at boxing guys out (like a basketball player), getting between a defender & the QB, but the body-catching always made us Charger fans nervous.

**There wasn't a lot of "in stride, drop it into the bucket" type throws. Some people cited this as evidence for critique of Rivers' arm, but I don't think it was a big deal.

3
by Kevin from Philly :: Tue, 07/22/2014 - 4:16pm

I think I speak for all Eagles fans when I say: for the love of God, PLEASE don't let us see Matt Barkley this year!

4
by coboney :: Tue, 07/22/2014 - 6:25pm

Agreed - seeing Matt Barkley playing for the Eagles would be about as bad as my Niners having to see Blaine Gabbert starting.

How about we avoid these nightmare scenarios this year so that we have a good year of football.

5
by Ryan D. :: Wed, 07/23/2014 - 10:49am

I'm really hoping to see Kelvin Benjamin in next year's article.

6
by Scott Kacsmar :: Wed, 07/23/2014 - 4:49pm

Of course NFL Game Rewind adds the slow-motion playback feature I've been begging for after I go through all these catches the hard way...

9
by DrP :: Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:39pm

After you do this for all the receivers, will you backtrack this same information and discuss the accuracy of each QB?