Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

28 Jun 2007, 05:33pm by Bill Barnwell

Welker? I Hardly Know Her.

Wes Welker was actually a good player despite being mired in the Dolphins' offense the last few years, so he should be great with Tom Brady and the Patriots, right? Bill Barnwell doesn't think so, and if you'll listen he'll tell you exactly why.

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68 comments, Last at 12 Jun 2012, 4:10pm by Anonymous2012

06 Jun 2007, 11:47pm by Bill Barnwell

O Bennett Where Art Thou?

The Tennessee Titans replace both their top rusher and top receiver, but they aren't the first NFL team to face this problem. Are they in for a long year? Bill Barnwell investigates.

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43 comments, Last at 14 Jun 2007, 9:37pm by DolFan 316

16 Mar 2007, 11:50am by Bill Barnwell

Opposition Matters

Conventional wisdom says that the great quarterbacks raise their games against elite opponents. In reality, the great quarterbacks raise their games against bad opponents. Bill Barnwell goes into the FO database to look at how the other team affects a quarterback's numbers. Bonus: For the first time in FO history, this one goes to 11.

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50 comments, Last at 08 May 2007, 5:24pm by Jack Neefus

04 Jan 2007, 02:16pm by Bill Barnwell

Why Doesn't Bill Polian's S--t Work in the Playoffs?

In which football ends up like baseball, Adam Vinatieri isn't as important as you think, and defense really does win more championships than offense.

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168 comments, Last at 09 Jan 2007, 7:16pm by Pat

02 Jan 2007, 12:24am by Aaron Schatz

370 Carries Revisited

We've mentioned it all season long, and now that Larry Johnson set a new NFL record for carries in a season, the "Curse of 370" is showing up in everything written by Football Outsiders. This article from the Seattle chapter of Pro Football Prospectus 2006 should help answer some of the questions people have about the 370-carry theory, including why we don't count receptions, and how a playoff appearance changes things.

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62 comments, Last at 29 Dec 2010, 4:24am by nike air max

18 Nov 2006, 11:52pm by Guest

Will Jason Campbell Save the Redskins?

The Redskins traded up to get Jason Campbell in the first round of the 2005 draft; this week, they finally hand him the keys to the car. David Lewin uses this opportunity to revisit the college quarterback projection system he introduced in Pro Football Prospectus 2006. The system has been extremely accurate in 2006 -- just ask Philip Rivers -- and it predicts that Campbell will become a star.

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48 comments, Last at 29 Nov 2006, 10:27pm by David Lewin

03 Nov 2006, 01:53pm by Guest

The Bears Trend

Everybody is talking about Chicago as Super Bowl favorites. Some people even talk about the Bears going 16-0. Is there anybody out there willing to stand astride the Chicago bandwagon, yelling "stop?" Guest columnist Douglas Walters volunteers, pointing out that the Bears are swimming upstream against the trends.

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95 comments, Last at 29 Nov 2007, 8:55pm by footballprofessor

23 Sep 2006, 11:10pm by P. Ryan Wilson

Can You Have Must-Win Games in Week 3?

Calling a September game a "must win" is surely hyperbole, right? Actually, it isn't. As Ryan Wilson shows, 0-2 teams really do have their backs against the wall on Sunday.

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35 comments, Last at 26 Mar 2009, 7:03am by colt

10 Aug 2006, 04:34pm by Guest

Never Punting

When you punt, you turn the ball over to the other team. So why isn't a punt considered a turnover? Starting from this idea, guest columnist Jason Scheib has developed a fascinating theory that teams might win more if they accepted a four-down mindset and never punted the ball. Come explore a dramatically counterintuitive strategy for winning football games.

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187 comments, Last at 04 Sep 2009, 3:34pm by Nelson

07 Aug 2006, 01:38pm by Guest

Does the NFL Preseason Matter?

The NFL preseason is pointless, right? Maybe not -- as long as you know where to look for meaning. Guest columnist Patrick Allison shows that a game in the preseason can help tell us what will happen if those two teams meet again during the regular season. (Note: This is the research Aaron referenced in last Sunday's New York Times.)

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56 comments, Last at 16 Aug 2006, 5:45pm by Pat