16 Mar 2007, 11:50am by Bill Barnwell
Conventional wisdom says that the great quarterbacks raise their games against elite opponents. In reality, the great quarterbacks raise their games against bad opponents. Bill Barnwell goes into the FO database to look at how the other team affects a quarterback's numbers. Bonus: For the first time in FO history, this one goes to 11.
50 comments, Last at 08 May 2007, 5:24pm by Jack Neefus
04 Jan 2007, 02:16pm by Bill Barnwell
In which football ends up like baseball, Adam Vinatieri isn't as important as you think, and defense really does win more championships than offense.
168 comments, Last at 09 Jan 2007, 7:16pm by Pat
02 Jan 2007, 12:24am by Aaron Schatz
We've mentioned it all season long, and now that Larry Johnson set a new NFL record for carries in a season, the "Curse of 370" is showing up in everything written by Football Outsiders. This article from the Seattle chapter of Pro Football Prospectus 2006 should help answer some of the questions people have about the 370-carry theory, including why we don't count receptions, and how a playoff appearance changes things.
62 comments, Last at 29 Dec 2010, 4:24am by nike air max
18 Nov 2006, 11:52pm by Guest
The Redskins traded up to get Jason Campbell in the first round of the 2005 draft; this week, they finally hand him the keys to the car. David Lewin uses this opportunity to revisit the college quarterback projection system he introduced in Pro Football Prospectus 2006. The system has been extremely accurate in 2006 -- just ask Philip Rivers -- and it predicts that Campbell will become a star.
48 comments, Last at 29 Nov 2006, 10:27pm by David Lewin
03 Nov 2006, 01:53pm by Guest
Everybody is talking about Chicago as Super Bowl favorites. Some people even talk about the Bears going 16-0. Is there anybody out there willing to stand astride the Chicago bandwagon, yelling "stop?" Guest columnist Douglas Walters volunteers, pointing out that the Bears are swimming upstream against the trends.
95 comments, Last at 29 Nov 2007, 8:55pm by footballprofessor
23 Sep 2006, 11:10pm by P. Ryan Wilson
Calling a September game a "must win" is surely hyperbole, right? Actually, it isn't. As Ryan Wilson shows, 0-2 teams really do have their backs against the wall on Sunday.
35 comments, Last at 26 Mar 2009, 7:03am by colt
10 Aug 2006, 04:34pm by Guest
When you punt, you turn the ball over to the other team. So why isn't a punt considered a turnover? Starting from this idea, guest columnist Jason Scheib has developed a fascinating theory that teams might win more if they accepted a four-down mindset and never punted the ball. Come explore a dramatically counterintuitive strategy for winning football games.
187 comments, Last at 04 Sep 2009, 3:34pm by Nelson
07 Aug 2006, 01:38pm by Guest
The NFL preseason is pointless, right? Maybe not -- as long as you know where to look for meaning. Guest columnist Patrick Allison shows that a game in the preseason can help tell us what will happen if those two teams meet again during the regular season. (Note: This is the research Aaron referenced in last Sunday's New York Times.)
56 comments, Last at 16 Aug 2006, 5:45pm by Pat
26 Jul 2006, 12:35pm by Guest
In PFP 2005, we listed Ken Anderson with two of the top ten QB seasons since 1960. So why does he receive so little consideration for the Hall of Fame? David Lewin analyzes Steve McNair's HOF chances in the brand new Pro Football Prospectus 2006; here, he uses those same tools to compare Anderson and his 1970s contemporaries.
91 comments, Last at 01 Apr 2009, 11:46am by GJones
26 Jun 2006, 11:13am by Guest
When you think of fourth-quarter heroics in the NFL, you think of quarterbacks. John Elway willing his team to victory over and over. Tom Brady marching the Patriots down the field for two last-minute Super Bowl wins. Flutie Magic. Is there really a measurable difference between quarterbacks when it comes to leading fourth-quarter comebacks? Does the list of the best fourth-quarter quarterbacks actually match our memories? And why do we tend to blame coaches for losing late leads, and give them far less credit than the quarterbacks when it comes to comebacks? Jason McKinley investigates.
95 comments, Last at 09 Jan 2007, 4:33pm by Ray