Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

23 Aug 2004, 12:33pm by Al Bogdan

Can Atlanta Blame 2003's Defensive Problems on Vick's Injury?

The general expectation this season is that the Michael Vick-led Atlanta Falcons will rebound from a terrible 2003. But what really caused the terrible season was the collapse of the Atlanta defense. Is it possible that this defensive decline was connected to Vick's injury, giving Falcon fans hope for 2004? Al asks the question and gets an answer that will surprise you. Actually, it probably won't.

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16 Aug 2004, 04:58am by Aaron Schatz

Introducing Running Back Success Rate

DVOA and DPAR measure the best running backs in terms of value, but what about consistency? Some running backs are always putting their teams in the position to grab another first down, and others are "home run hitters" that mix highlight-reel runs with lots of 2-3 yard carries. Football Outsiders has a new stat that measures how often a running back has success. Originally called "Running Back Batting Average," it is now called "Running Back Success Rate."

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11 Aug 2004, 01:18pm by Michael David Smith

Wanna Be Startin' Somethin'

One way to analyze how much talent each team added in the offseason is to see how many games were started last season by their projected starters for this season. The resulting numbers provide more support for that trendy Jacksonville pick along with hope for a Tampa rebound and a Washington playoff run. Michael David Smith has commentary.

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02 Aug 2004, 01:47pm by Michael David Smith

Understudy in Contrasts

It's the holy grail of football research: How do you separate the ability of a running back from the ability of his blockers? Michael David Smith has a simple first step, comparing the great running backs of the past to their backups. Find out the answers to such questions as "What is the best offensive line to have no members in Canton?" and "Who the heck is Barry Redden?" (No, he's not "the other Tick" -- that was Barry Hubris.)

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02 Aug 2004, 01:43pm by Aaron Schatz

Portis Uber Alles

Aaron on the big year Clinton Portis should expect in Washington, and the big shoes he leaves behind in Denver. Quentin Griffin fans are not going to be pleased.

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25 Jul 2004, 11:07am by Aaron Schatz

Ricky Williams Retires

Or, as the article was originally titled, Ricky Williams is Pretty Much Screwed. Perhaps Ricky knew this and it helped him make his decision. Here's the article we wrote for the new book Pro Football Forecast, when everyone thought Ricky was coming back for 2004 and wanted to know if he would return to his 2002 performance level. Read and learn something you didn't know about Eric Dickerson -- and something Ravens fans won't want to know about Jamal Lewis. Plus, some comments on possible Ricky replacements, and the picture that clearly shows why Miami is in trouble.

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2 comments, Last at 30 Jul 2009, 9:18am by Reliable but

21 Jul 2004, 11:14am by Aaron Schatz

Press Check: Pass Interference Changes

From July 2004, here's our look at what to expect after the renewed enforcement of illegal contact, along with a 2005 update on where we were right, and where we were wrong. Hint: The prediction of one veteran receiver's first 1,000-yard season was right on the money.

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8 comments, Last at 13 Jun 2005, 5:33pm by Jeff F

08 Jul 2004, 02:00am by Aaron Schatz

Hard Times for the Class of '96

It started as an article about Terrell Owens moving to the Eagles. Look closer, however, and an interesting pattern emerges. Marvin Harrison, Eric Moulds, Amani Toomer, Keyshawn Johnson, Owens: all of them declined in 2003. What is in store for the greatest wide receiver draft class of all time as they enter their ninth seasons in the NFL?

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15 Jun 2004, 12:53pm by Aaron Schatz

Press Check: Run Defense, Continued

Last week's article on run defense spawned a good discussion that featured a lot of interesting questions. Aaron buries his nose in the Football Outsiders NFL database (don't let it fall into the wrong hands!) to find the answers.

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1 comment, Last at 05 Aug 2005, 8:46pm by David Brude

08 Jun 2004, 01:24pm by Aaron Schatz

Press Check: Run Defense

In which Aaron attempts, yet again, to pierce a hole in the conventional wisdom among football writers that says run defense is the best indicator of a team's playoff chances.

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