Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

06 Dec 2004, 01:27am by

2004 Strategy Revisisted, Weeks 6-12

At his website footballcommentary.com, William Krasker regularly reviews major coaching decisions through the eyes of probability theory. In this article for Football Outsiders, he revisits his analysis from the past six weeks, and talks about a few new situations. Included: Mike Martz's fake field goal call from Week 12, Mike Tice's two-point conversion decision in Week 11, and the possibility of teams taking penalties on purpose to eat clock time. Plus, Jets fans think Herman Edwards makes a lot of bad decisions, but one decision this year surely must rank as the worst, and you may have never even noticed it.

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1 comment, Last at 20 Sep 2006, 7:12am by Klassenfahrt

06 Nov 2004, 03:27am by P. Ryan Wilson

Bye Week, Schmye Week

Conventional wisdom says teams coming off a bye week have an advantage over their opponents, but what does the statistical analysis say? FO's Ryan Wilson breaks down the numbers for 2004.

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3 comments, Last at 25 Aug 2006, 1:00am by tenuate dospan

04 Nov 2004, 07:03pm by Aaron Schatz

Refreshing Brees

Does it seem like every football writer that you read regularly penned an article about Drew Brees on Wednesday? Guess what, you're right, and that includes Football Outsiders. Now, in an expanded version of an article from Wednesday's New York Sun, Aaron says that it isn't a surprise that Brees has had a rebound season in 2004. Coming to that conclusion introduces the FO version of a classic baseball analysis tool: similarity scores.

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1 comment, Last at 21 Apr 2006, 2:06pm by Software

28 Oct 2004, 04:17pm by admin

The Owens Effect

Did you expect Terrell Owens to have such a dramatic effect on the Philadelphia offense? You shouldn't have. It turns out that the improvement in Philadelphia is unprecendented when compared to other recent situations where a star receiver changed teams. And a closer look at Donovan McNabb's numbers shows that the improvement is almost entirely driven by Owens. Michael David Smith and Aaron Schatz investigate in an expanded version of an article previously available in the New York Sun.

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24 Oct 2004, 09:45pm by

2004 Strategy Revisited, Weeks 1-6

Each week at footballcommentary.com, William Krasker reviews the major coaching decisions of the week through the eyes of his Dynamic Programming Model. Today he revisits the most interesting of those decisions for Football Outsiders, reconsidering them and addressing comments made in the discussion of his articles on Extra Points. Included: Quentin Griffin's fumble in Week 2, San Francisco's punt from the St. Louis 30-yard line in Week 4, and Seattle's clock management in Week 5.

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23 Oct 2004, 01:47am by Aaron Schatz

Game Preview: NYJ-NE / KC-SD Switch Special Teams

Two articles for the price of none. First, this week brings us the first meeting of two undefeated teams with at least five wins apiece since 1973 and hardly anybody in either Boston or New York has paid attention. Aaron tells you what to look for in this game using our innovative Football Outsiders metrics. Second, a year ago everyone was talking about Dante Hall. Now the numbers say Kansas City has the worst special teams unit in the league. Why special teams have contributed to the fall of the Chiefs and the rise of their division rivals in San Diego. Both articles originally appeared in the New York Sun.

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17 Oct 2004, 09:37pm by admin

Setting the Pace, Part II

In the first half of his guest column on offensive pace, Jim Armstrong showed that a faster or slower pace seems to have absolutely no connection with winning more games or even scoring more points. In part two, Jim looks at competing theories about how teams should change their pace. Should teams find the pace that works for their offense and stick with it, or should they specifically slow down against stronger opponents?

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4 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2007, 12:47am by online new car buying

13 Oct 2004, 10:35pm by admin

Setting the Pace, Part I

Pace is a popular subject in NBA analysis, but what about the NFL? Are there any strategic elements to setting the pace? Does a so-called "ball control" offense really help when a team is overmatched? Jim Armstrong explores these issues in a two-part guest column. In part one, which were the fastest and slowest teams in 2003, and does a faster or slower pace help a team to win?

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6 comments, Last at 08 Jan 2008, 2:52pm by DavidH

04 Oct 2004, 12:04pm by P. Ryan Wilson

Look Kids: Big Ben, Parliament!

Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer are both in their first year as starting quarterbacks. Therefore, the Steelers and Bengals are both destined for losing seasons. Right? Nope. Ryan Wilson explains why a quarterback's experience may factor into team success less than you think.

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2 comments, Last at 01 Feb 2007, 12:41pm by Amatory

15 Sep 2004, 01:18pm by Michael David Smith

Rogers, Over and Out

Two seasons. 22 Catches. 243 Yards. Is that what you expect out of the second pick in the draft? Injury or not, Michael David Smith says that Charles Rogers was just another big Matt Millen mistake.

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