Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

24 May 2004, 11:53am by Michael David Smith

Similarity Scores

Just the start of another attempt to translate a classic baseball analysis tool into the world of the NFL.

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10 May 2004, 11:53am by Aaron Schatz

Even More Complete Failures

And, yea, did the readers of Football Outsiders request new data. They wanted to see the list of failed completes re-ordered by the percentage of total pass plays. They wanted to see the list of failed completes by defense rather than offense. And, yea, did the Football Outsiders comply, and left the analysis up to the readers.

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07 May 2004, 04:03am by Aaron Schatz

Complete Failures

Quarterbacks are judged on their completion percentage, but not every complete pass is a successful play. Introducing a new statistic that tells which teams padded their numbers with short passes, failed third down conversions, and the dreaded reception for a loss of yardage.

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03 May 2004, 09:14am by

Discussion-Worthy Coaching Decisions from 2003

In this article reprinted from footballcommentary.com, William Krasker uses probability theory and his Dynamic Programming Model to analyze six controversial coaching moves of last season. Should the Packers have kicked a field goal with two minutes left in the first half of the playoff game with the Eagles, instead of going for the touchdown? In their MNF comeback against Tampa, should Indianapolis have tried any two-point conversions? When you need 10 at the end of a game, do you go for the touchdown or the field goal first?

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22 Apr 2004, 01:45pm by admin

Guest Column: Turnovers and the Unpredictability of Defense

Winning the turnover battle, as the media points out roughly every twelve seconds, is the key to winning football games. But what does this really mean? How important are turnovers and how much control do teams have over them? Does winning the turnover battle this week mean you will win it again next year? Jim Armstrong investigates in an enlightening guest column.

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07 Apr 2004, 12:42pm by Michael David Smith

Back in Black (Ink)

When a classic Bill James statistic falls through the cracks, our own Michael David Smith catches that statistic for a segment we call "Back in Black (Ink)."

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24 Mar 2004, 02:05pm by Al Bogdan

Sorry, Charlie

While Ian is hard at work doing actual work, Al has been thinking about Charlie Garner's arrival in Tampa. Can Garner help the Bucs get back to the Super Bowl? To do so, he'll have to do something only three other running backs in NFL history have accomplished.

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08 Mar 2004, 11:49am by Michael David Smith

Introducing Leader Ratio

Michael David Smith with a new statistic to help us compare today's stars to players from the past in an easy fashion. Learn just how dominant Jim Brown was before he went off to star in such films as I'm Gonna Git You, Sucka! Plus, the first and probably only time mediocre mid-80's running back Greg Bell is mentioned at Football Outsiders.

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1 comment, Last at 02 Nov 2005, 9:48pm by Tom T.

27 Feb 2004, 10:13am by Aaron Schatz

2003 Schedule: The Rich Get Richer

No, not an article from the Dennis Kucinich campaign website, but an analysis of the strange phenomenon that was the 2003 NFL schedule. Our schedule strength rankings say that all the best teams had easy schedules, and all the worst teams had hard schedules. We thought that was strange too, until we looked at 2003 strength of schedule using just regular old wins and losses.

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23 Feb 2004, 03:40am by admin

QB Ratings Reconsidered

It's one of the most debated statistics in sports: The NFL's passer rating. It's a pain to calculate and confusing to understand. Can't we do better? Yes, we can. In fact, we can three times over. Let the debate begin: The NFL's PASSER RATING vs. Brian Hook's HOOK QUARTERBACK VALUE vs. Anthony Brancato's QUARTERBACK RATING vs. Aaron Schatz's POINTS ABOVE REPLACEMENT.

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