25 Jul 2004, 11:07am by Aaron Schatz
Or, as the article was originally titled, Ricky Williams is Pretty Much Screwed. Perhaps Ricky knew this and it helped him make his decision. Here's the article we wrote for the new book Pro Football Forecast, when everyone thought Ricky was coming back for 2004 and wanted to know if he would return to his 2002 performance level. Read and learn something you didn't know about Eric Dickerson -- and something Ravens fans won't want to know about Jamal Lewis. Plus, some comments on possible Ricky replacements, and the picture that clearly shows why Miami is in trouble.
2 comments, Last at 30 Jul 2009, 9:18am by Reliable but
21 Jul 2004, 11:14am by Aaron Schatz
From July 2004, here's our look at what to expect after the renewed enforcement of illegal contact, along with a 2005 update on where we were right, and where we were wrong. Hint: The prediction of one veteran receiver's first 1,000-yard season was right on the money.
8 comments, Last at 13 Jun 2005, 5:33pm by Jeff F
08 Jul 2004, 02:00am by Aaron Schatz
It started as an article about Terrell Owens moving to the Eagles. Look closer, however, and an interesting pattern emerges. Marvin Harrison, Eric Moulds, Amani Toomer, Keyshawn Johnson, Owens: all of them declined in 2003. What is in store for the greatest wide receiver draft class of all time as they enter their ninth seasons in the NFL?
15 Jun 2004, 12:53pm by Aaron Schatz
Last week's article on run defense spawned a good discussion that featured a lot of interesting questions. Aaron buries his nose in the Football Outsiders NFL database (don't let it fall into the wrong hands!) to find the answers.
1 comment, Last at 05 Aug 2005, 8:46pm by David Brude
08 Jun 2004, 01:24pm by Aaron Schatz
In which Aaron attempts, yet again, to pierce a hole in the conventional wisdom among football writers that says run defense is the best indicator of a team's playoff chances.
24 May 2004, 11:53am by Michael David Smith
Just the start of another attempt to translate a classic baseball analysis tool into the world of the NFL.
10 May 2004, 11:53am by Aaron Schatz
And, yea, did the readers of Football Outsiders request new data. They wanted to see the list of failed completes re-ordered by the percentage of total pass plays. They wanted to see the list of failed completes by defense rather than offense. And, yea, did the Football Outsiders comply, and left the analysis up to the readers.
07 May 2004, 04:03am by Aaron Schatz
Quarterbacks are judged on their completion percentage, but not every complete pass is a successful play. Introducing a new statistic that tells which teams padded their numbers with short passes, failed third down conversions, and the dreaded reception for a loss of yardage.
In this article reprinted from footballcommentary.com, William Krasker uses probability theory and his Dynamic Programming Model to analyze six controversial coaching moves of last season. Should the Packers have kicked a field goal with two minutes left in the first half of the playoff game with the Eagles, instead of going for the touchdown? In their MNF comeback against Tampa, should Indianapolis have tried any two-point conversions? When you need 10 at the end of a game, do you go for the touchdown or the field goal first?
22 Apr 2004, 01:45pm by admin
Winning the turnover battle, as the media points out roughly every twelve seconds, is the key to winning football games. But what does this really mean? How important are turnovers and how much control do teams have over them? Does winning the turnover battle this week mean you will win it again next year? Jim Armstrong investigates in an enlightening guest column.