Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

23 Dec 2003, 01:15pm by Michael David Smith

Are Penalties Overrated?

The Hidden Game of Football says that penalties aren't very important because they even out in the long run. True or false? Michael David Smith has some interesting facts about 2002 numbers as well as 37 years of Super Bowl champions.

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22 Dec 2003, 03:12am by Aaron Schatz

Fun With Sacks

OK, so our offensive and defensive line numbers have only included run blocking so far. What about pass blocking? Aaron takes the sacks per pass attempt statistic used by the folks over at Football Project, tweaks it a little bit, and runs the 2003 numbers.

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3 comments, Last at 20 Sep 2011, 2:19pm by jeff Anderton

15 Dec 2003, 06:19am by Michael David Smith

The Era of Unpredictability

This year the Raiders and (probably) the Bucs will miss the playoffs. Michael David Smith asks: Why are we so surprised? In the era of unpredictability, Super Bowl teams regularly miss the playoffs the next year... and often return to the playoffs the year after.

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13 Dec 2003, 01:37pm by Michael David Smith

In Defense of Ken Walter

With his fourth column for us, we hereby shift Michael David Smith from "guest columnist" to "Football Outsider," which means he eventually gets a cartoon of himself drawn by Jason Beattie. Never one to shy from controversy, Mike devotes his first article as "a regular" to defending Patriots punter-turned-ex-punter-turned-punter-again Ken Walter. The secret lies not in the length of punts, but in the length of returns.

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08 Dec 2003, 01:42pm by Michael David Smith

Second Half Success

Is second half success a good omen for next year? Given the 2003 Patriots and Seahawks, we might say yes. Given 32 different teams since 1990, Michael David Smith says, well, maybe not.

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06 Dec 2003, 02:20pm by admin

Guest Column: Cold Weather is Hot Issue in NFL Betting

In this week's Scramble for the Ball Best Bets, Al told you a bit about Anthony Brancato and his gambling statistics that show how warm-weather teams often fail to cover in cold weather December games. Anthony's been kind enough to expand upon that idea for us in this guest column. Fear this, o Dolphin and Ram fans.

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2 comments, Last at 22 Jan 2007, 2:43pm by osisbs

17 Nov 2003, 03:30am by admin

Guest Column: Going for Two

One of the most debated decisions in football is when to go for a two-point conversion. But is it possible that coaches don't go for the two-pointer enough? That's the theory of Christopher Moses.

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05 Nov 2003, 02:09pm by Aaron Schatz

Maroon Zone vs. Scarlet Zone

In the final TMQ, Gregg Easterbrook introduced the idea of The Maroon Zone, the area between the 30 and 40-yard lines that often is the barrier between punting and scoring. Or is it? We compare performance all over the field to winning and scoring and discover an even more important new area: The Scarlet Zone.

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02 Oct 2003, 12:25pm by admin

Introducing Points Above Replacement

Since Football Outsiders launched, we've compared players to the league average on a play-by-play basis. But what about the value of a player like Ricky Williams who runs near league-average but with amazing durability? Borrowing from baseball analysts, we introduce a stat that combines quality with quantity - and as an added bonus, we've translated it into actual points. Plus, the first 2003 player rankings and directional rushing stats.

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1 comment, Last at 17 Nov 2005, 2:14pm by ernie cohen

25 Sep 2003, 05:04am by Aaron Schatz

How Many Points is a Turnover Worth?

How many points should the offense expect to score, depending on their field position? The answers within, including discussion of The Most Important Thing We've Learned So Far (TM) and the dreaded question of "field goal or go for it?" Plus, graphs galore. Don't miss the Happy Turnover Smile-Time Hour!

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4 comments, Last at 08 Nov 2011, 2:09pm by bravehoptoad