07 May 2004, 04:03am by Aaron Schatz
Quarterbacks are judged on their completion percentage, but not every complete pass is a successful play. Introducing a new statistic that tells which teams padded their numbers with short passes, failed third down conversions, and the dreaded reception for a loss of yardage.
In this article reprinted from footballcommentary.com, William Krasker uses probability theory and his Dynamic Programming Model to analyze six controversial coaching moves of last season. Should the Packers have kicked a field goal with two minutes left in the first half of the playoff game with the Eagles, instead of going for the touchdown? In their MNF comeback against Tampa, should Indianapolis have tried any two-point conversions? When you need 10 at the end of a game, do you go for the touchdown or the field goal first?
22 Apr 2004, 01:45pm by admin
Winning the turnover battle, as the media points out roughly every twelve seconds, is the key to winning football games. But what does this really mean? How important are turnovers and how much control do teams have over them? Does winning the turnover battle this week mean you will win it again next year? Jim Armstrong investigates in an enlightening guest column.
07 Apr 2004, 12:42pm by Michael David Smith
When a classic Bill James statistic falls through the cracks, our own Michael David Smith catches that statistic for a segment we call "Back in Black (Ink)."
24 Mar 2004, 02:05pm by Al Bogdan
While Ian is hard at work doing actual work, Al has been thinking about Charlie Garner's arrival in Tampa. Can Garner help the Bucs get back to the Super Bowl? To do so, he'll have to do something only three other running backs in NFL history have accomplished.
08 Mar 2004, 11:49am by Michael David Smith
Michael David Smith with a new statistic to help us compare today's stars to players from the past in an easy fashion. Learn just how dominant Jim Brown was before he went off to star in such films as I'm Gonna Git You, Sucka! Plus, the first and probably only time mediocre mid-80's running back Greg Bell is mentioned at Football Outsiders.
1 comment, Last at 02 Nov 2005, 9:48pm by Tom T.
27 Feb 2004, 10:13am by Aaron Schatz
No, not an article from the Dennis Kucinich campaign website, but an analysis of the strange phenomenon that was the 2003 NFL schedule. Our schedule strength rankings say that all the best teams had easy schedules, and all the worst teams had hard schedules. We thought that was strange too, until we looked at 2003 strength of schedule using just regular old wins and losses.
23 Feb 2004, 03:40am by admin
It's one of the most debated statistics in sports: The NFL's passer rating. It's a pain to calculate and confusing to understand. Can't we do better? Yes, we can. In fact, we can three times over. Let the debate begin: The NFL's PASSER RATING vs. Brian Hook's HOOK QUARTERBACK VALUE vs. Anthony Brancato's QUARTERBACK RATING vs. Aaron Schatz's POINTS ABOVE REPLACEMENT.
04 Feb 2004, 02:33pm by Michael David Smith
All this dynasty talk from a team that's only won two Super Bowls... maybe people need to slow down a little. But while we can't assume the Patriots will become a dynasty over the rest of the decade, we can compare them to other teams that won two Super Bowls over a three-year period. Is it parity, or parody?
23 Jan 2004, 01:20pm by Michael David Smith
Gregg Easterbrook says that officials seem to allow more contact in the playoffs without calling penalties. NFL Director of Officiating Mike Pereira says that officials call the playoffs the same way they call the regular season. Mike Smith crunches numbers to find out who's right.