Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

08 Jul 2004, 02:00am by Aaron Schatz

Hard Times for the Class of '96

It started as an article about Terrell Owens moving to the Eagles. Look closer, however, and an interesting pattern emerges. Marvin Harrison, Eric Moulds, Amani Toomer, Keyshawn Johnson, Owens: all of them declined in 2003. What is in store for the greatest wide receiver draft class of all time as they enter their ninth seasons in the NFL?

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15 Jun 2004, 12:53pm by Aaron Schatz

Press Check: Run Defense, Continued

Last week's article on run defense spawned a good discussion that featured a lot of interesting questions. Aaron buries his nose in the Football Outsiders NFL database (don't let it fall into the wrong hands!) to find the answers.

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1 comment, Last at 05 Aug 2005, 8:46pm by David Brude

08 Jun 2004, 01:24pm by Aaron Schatz

Press Check: Run Defense

In which Aaron attempts, yet again, to pierce a hole in the conventional wisdom among football writers that says run defense is the best indicator of a team's playoff chances.

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24 May 2004, 11:53am by Michael David Smith

Similarity Scores

Just the start of another attempt to translate a classic baseball analysis tool into the world of the NFL.

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10 May 2004, 11:53am by Aaron Schatz

Even More Complete Failures

And, yea, did the readers of Football Outsiders request new data. They wanted to see the list of failed completes re-ordered by the percentage of total pass plays. They wanted to see the list of failed completes by defense rather than offense. And, yea, did the Football Outsiders comply, and left the analysis up to the readers.

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07 May 2004, 04:03am by Aaron Schatz

Complete Failures

Quarterbacks are judged on their completion percentage, but not every complete pass is a successful play. Introducing a new statistic that tells which teams padded their numbers with short passes, failed third down conversions, and the dreaded reception for a loss of yardage.

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03 May 2004, 09:14am by

Discussion-Worthy Coaching Decisions from 2003

In this article reprinted from footballcommentary.com, William Krasker uses probability theory and his Dynamic Programming Model to analyze six controversial coaching moves of last season. Should the Packers have kicked a field goal with two minutes left in the first half of the playoff game with the Eagles, instead of going for the touchdown? In their MNF comeback against Tampa, should Indianapolis have tried any two-point conversions? When you need 10 at the end of a game, do you go for the touchdown or the field goal first?

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22 Apr 2004, 01:45pm by admin

Guest Column: Turnovers and the Unpredictability of Defense

Winning the turnover battle, as the media points out roughly every twelve seconds, is the key to winning football games. But what does this really mean? How important are turnovers and how much control do teams have over them? Does winning the turnover battle this week mean you will win it again next year? Jim Armstrong investigates in an enlightening guest column.

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07 Apr 2004, 12:42pm by Michael David Smith

Back in Black (Ink)

When a classic Bill James statistic falls through the cracks, our own Michael David Smith catches that statistic for a segment we call "Back in Black (Ink)."

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24 Mar 2004, 02:05pm by Al Bogdan

Sorry, Charlie

While Ian is hard at work doing actual work, Al has been thinking about Charlie Garner's arrival in Tampa. Can Garner help the Bucs get back to the Super Bowl? To do so, he'll have to do something only three other running backs in NFL history have accomplished.

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