Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

08 Feb 2005, 02:55pm by admin

2004 Patriots vs. History

You've heard a lot in the last week about the Patriots and their standing in history. Now, Football Outsiders presents two takes on the argument that will rage all offseason long. First, Aaron Schatz asks how the 2004 Patriots compare to the teams discussed in Eddie Epstein's book Dominance. Then Ned Macey uses his own criteria to compare the Patriots to the greatest teams of the Super Bowl era.

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1 comment, Last at 07 Jul 2005, 2:19am by RamTime

19 Jan 2005, 12:30pm by Ned Macey

How Much Should Rookie Quarterbacks Play?

Three first round quarterbacks will be leading their teams this weekend in the conference finals. Ben Roethlisberger was forced into action immediately, Donovan McNabb took over his team at midseason, and Michael Vick didn't take over for good until his second year. Which is the best way to develop a rookie passer? Ned Macey takes a comprehensive look at every quarterback drafted between 1993 and 2002, and offers some conclusions.

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6 comments, Last at 12 Dec 2007, 6:44am by best life ins

07 Jan 2005, 04:31am by Guest

How Play Selection Affects Touchdown Percentage

Some people say that you have to run the ball to win in the NFL. Others say that you score with the pass. Jason McKinley believes the answer is one or the other, and sometimes both. It all depends on which team you examine. This guest column introduces a new metric that measures how often a team scores when it runs compared to when it throws the ball, and gives a closer analysis of this season's 12 playoff contenders.

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22 Dec 2004, 11:01pm by Mike Tanier

Marino vs. Manning

There's a lot of talk out there about the Peyton Manning breaking the passing touchdown record, but very little talk about how Dan Marino set it. Michael Tanier compares the two seasons to find out if Manning is guilty of padding his stats -- or if Marino was guilty of padding his. Or neither.

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1 comment, Last at 27 Mar 2007, 9:24am by car cover mercedes

06 Dec 2004, 01:27am by

2004 Strategy Revisisted, Weeks 6-12

At his website footballcommentary.com, William Krasker regularly reviews major coaching decisions through the eyes of probability theory. In this article for Football Outsiders, he revisits his analysis from the past six weeks, and talks about a few new situations. Included: Mike Martz's fake field goal call from Week 12, Mike Tice's two-point conversion decision in Week 11, and the possibility of teams taking penalties on purpose to eat clock time. Plus, Jets fans think Herman Edwards makes a lot of bad decisions, but one decision this year surely must rank as the worst, and you may have never even noticed it.

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1 comment, Last at 20 Sep 2006, 7:12am by Klassenfahrt

06 Nov 2004, 03:27am by P. Ryan Wilson

Bye Week, Schmye Week

Conventional wisdom says teams coming off a bye week have an advantage over their opponents, but what does the statistical analysis say? FO's Ryan Wilson breaks down the numbers for 2004.

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3 comments, Last at 25 Aug 2006, 1:00am by tenuate dospan

04 Nov 2004, 07:03pm by Aaron Schatz

Refreshing Brees

Does it seem like every football writer that you read regularly penned an article about Drew Brees on Wednesday? Guess what, you're right, and that includes Football Outsiders. Now, in an expanded version of an article from Wednesday's New York Sun, Aaron says that it isn't a surprise that Brees has had a rebound season in 2004. Coming to that conclusion introduces the FO version of a classic baseball analysis tool: similarity scores.

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1 comment, Last at 21 Apr 2006, 2:06pm by Software

28 Oct 2004, 04:17pm by admin

The Owens Effect

Did you expect Terrell Owens to have such a dramatic effect on the Philadelphia offense? You shouldn't have. It turns out that the improvement in Philadelphia is unprecendented when compared to other recent situations where a star receiver changed teams. And a closer look at Donovan McNabb's numbers shows that the improvement is almost entirely driven by Owens. Michael David Smith and Aaron Schatz investigate in an expanded version of an article previously available in the New York Sun.

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1 comment, Last at 18 Jan 2007, 2:52pm by adult asian dvd

24 Oct 2004, 09:45pm by

2004 Strategy Revisited, Weeks 1-6

Each week at footballcommentary.com, William Krasker reviews the major coaching decisions of the week through the eyes of his Dynamic Programming Model. Today he revisits the most interesting of those decisions for Football Outsiders, reconsidering them and addressing comments made in the discussion of his articles on Extra Points. Included: Quentin Griffin's fumble in Week 2, San Francisco's punt from the St. Louis 30-yard line in Week 4, and Seattle's clock management in Week 5.

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23 Oct 2004, 01:47am by Aaron Schatz

Game Preview: NYJ-NE / KC-SD Switch Special Teams

Two articles for the price of none. First, this week brings us the first meeting of two undefeated teams with at least five wins apiece since 1973 and hardly anybody in either Boston or New York has paid attention. Aaron tells you what to look for in this game using our innovative Football Outsiders metrics. Second, a year ago everyone was talking about Dante Hall. Now the numbers say Kansas City has the worst special teams unit in the league. Why special teams have contributed to the fall of the Chiefs and the rise of their division rivals in San Diego. Both articles originally appeared in the New York Sun.

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