Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

25 Apr 2013

State of the Team: Minnesota Vikings

by Andy Benoit

The 2013 "State of the Team" articles will run daily through the NFL draft. These offer a snapshot look at a team’s roster, with players classified by color based on how they fit their role. My analysis is based on film study, not statistics, although we will try to note when my judgment differs significantly from FO's advanced stats, and explain a little bit why. Starters are in bold, and you will notice that many units are listed with 12 starters rather than just 11. This denotes the extra playing time that nickelbacks and third receivers usually get in today's NFL.

Color Legend:

  • Star
  • Good
  • Adequate
  • Jury’s still out
  • Just a guy
  • Upgrade needed
  • No longer on the team

Some players colored pink as "just a guy" are younger low-round picks who just haven't seen much playing time, but keep in mind that 99 percent of the time, there’s a negative reason why such a player has rarely seen the field.

Players colored red as "upgrade needed" are not necessarily bad players. Sometimes, this simply means the player is a decent backup who should not be starting.

Since I generally don't do analysis on special teams, those categorizations are based strictly on FO stats, with any comments written by Aaron Schatz. We're only listing kickers and punters, as most teams go into training camp without specific players set as return specialists.

Click here for an archive of all State of the Team articles.

OFFENSE

OVERVIEW

Last year's Vikings were as close to being a one-man show as any professional football team could possibly be. That needs to change. As great as Adrian Peterson is, he can’t carry a franchise on his back. Not if the objective is to reach a Super Bowl, anyway. The development of Christian Ponder is critical, though that development can’t occur without drastic improvements at wide receiver. Minnesota had to so obviously protect Ponder last season -– using almost only run-oriented formations and defined-read concepts such as play-action and rollouts –- because when Percy Harvin went down, there were zero receivers capable of beating man coverage. Harvin has since been traded; the hope is Greg Jennings can fill his void.

BACKFIELD

QB: Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel

RB: Adrian Peterson, Toby Gerhart, Jerome Felton (FB)

Ponder must get firmer in the pocket, both mentally and physically. Part of pocket firmness is playing with more consistent drop-back and throwing mechanics. It might not be a bad idea for coordinator Bill Musgrave to build some read-option into this system. That, along with the usual bootlegs and rollouts, would be a way to take full advantage of Ponder’s mobility. Peterson may not have another 2,000-yard season, but there’s no reason to think he won’t still be a punishing workhorse if he stays healthy. He has improved drastically at operating out of two-man backfields, which is something he didn’t have the patience for early in his career.

RECEIVERS

WR: Greg Jennings, Jerome Simpson, Jarius Wright, Greg Childs, Stephen Burton; Lost: Percy Harvin, Michael Jenkins

TE: Kyle Rudolph, John Carlson, Rhett Ellison

Jennings is a tough cover, but injuries have kept him under 1,000 yards the past two years. He can be a legit No. 1, but he doesn’t possess the unique multidimensional variables that Harvin offered. Simpson is, at best, a ho-hum No. 2 receiver. He doesn’t begin to have enough polish as a route runner, and profiles better as a No. 3. Wright has decent wheels, but remains raw. The rest of the receiving corps is unknown, as Childs has not set foot on an NFL field and Burton has made a minimal impact through two seasons. Neither will play much because the Vikings build a lot of their short-area passing game around the soft-handed Rudolph. They’ll predominantly throw from base formations; on that note, it would make sense to use more two-tight end looks this season in hopes of getting Carlson more involved. Then again, maybe it won't matter since Carlson didn't stand out at all last season.

OFFENSIVE LINE

LT: Matt Kalil LG: Charlie Johnson C: John Sullivan RG: Brandon Fusco RT: Phil Loadholt

Backups: Joe Berger, DeMarcus Love; Lost: Geoff Schwartz

All signs so far point to Kalil living up to his high draft status. Loadholt has improved enough in recent years to take advantage of his outstanding size. (Most of the time, anyway.) Inside, Sullivan does a good job stabilizing this line amidst the mediocrity that surrounds him at guard. Johnson is serviceable enough, but Fusco has been a difficult project for the Vikings coaching staff. His lack of natural strength (or an ability to apply it, anyway) has been an underlying issue.

DEFENSE

OVERVIEW

This defense benefits from spending a lot of time in familiar zone concepts. Their backbone is the Tampa-2, though as last season progressed, Leslie Frazier and coordinator Alan Williams sprinkled in more single-high looks and selective blitzes. There isn’t quite enough talent here on the back end to play those looks more regularly, especially with a big hole -- for now -- at middle linebacker. However, there is enough talent on the front end for this defense to still succeed with the fairly vanilla Tampa-2 looks.

DEFENSIVE LINE

DE: Jared Allen, Brian Robison, Everson Griffen, D'Aundre Reed

DT: Kevin Williams, Letroy Guion, Fred Evans, Christian Ballard

The extra attention Allen draws (and sometimes manages to defeat) makes life easier on everyone. The quick, sinewy Robison, in particular, does a great job capitalizing on one-on-one matchups against overwhelmed right tackles. Still, he could soon lose some of his base defensive end snaps to Griffen, as it’s getting harder and harder to keep the unbelievably athletic fourth-year pro off the field. (Though it helps that Griffen can play both inside and outside, and can find his way on to the field in nickel situations thanks to that.) At tackle, Williams still holds down the fort effectively, though this will almost certainly be his last year in the Twin Cities. Guion has obvious talent but, as is also the case with Evans, he must exhibit it on a more regular basis. Ballard is developing into a fine interior nickel pass rusher.

LINEBACKERS

OLB: Chad Greenway, Erin Henderson

ILB: Tyrone McKenzie, Audie Cole, Marvin Mitchell; Lost: Jasper Brinkley

Greenway is a complete three-down player. He moves well, diagnoses shrewdly, and seems to have a strong memory for what the offense is doing -- which leads to an inordinate number of anticipation plays later in games. Henderson would do a lot for his career if he could become a dynamic nickel player. He was solid in this sense last season; he must learn to be spectacular. Otherwise, he’ll always be considered replaceable. In the middle, McKenzie is currently slated to start, but expect that to change. The 27-year-old is a former third-round pick who tore his ACL in the summer of his rookie season and has since spent his career on the fringes of depth charts.

SECONDARY

CB: Chris Cook, Josh Robinson, Brandon Burton, A.J. Jefferson; Lost: Antoine Winfield

S: Harrison Smith, Mistral Raymond, Robert Blanton, Jamarca Sanford

Cook and Robinson are both great athletes who are still a tad callow. Callowness tends to show a bit more in zone-playing corners. (In man, corners usually just have to react to their receiver, which means they can rely mostly on their athleticism. In zone, they must read the quarterback and the field, thus relying on their eyes to react.) Slot corner is a major concern. The best bet is probably to slide Robinson inside and hope that the lanky Jefferson can hold up on the outside. A better bet would be to find a stronger corner in the draft.

The organization is excited about the quick development of Smith at safety. Improved awareness led to significantly improved range during the course of his rookie season. He’s a very good space tackler. The question is whether Raymond can continue to be an adequate running mate. If he can’t will the Vikings give Blanton a look? Sanford has proven to be too mistake-prone.

SPECIAL TEAMS

K: Blair Walsh; P: Chris Kluwe

Walsh's Pro Bowl selection ignored the positive effects of kicking indoors, but he still had a strong rookie year. When his numbers fall in 2014, remember to look up at Vikings games and notice that you are seeing actual sky. Kluwe is a decent punter and a better talk show guest.

(Ed. Note: My mistake. The Vikings aren't moving outdoors until 2014. That's my screw-up, not Andy's. So Walsh gets another year of kickass raw numbers. -- Aaron Schatz)

Follow @Andy_Benoit
e-mail andy@footballoutsiders.com

Posted by: Andy Benoit on 25 Apr 2013

41 comments, Last at 18 Aug 2014, 9:01am by nuna

Comments

1
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 12:33pm

"When his numbers fall in 2013, remember to look up at Vikings games and notice that you are seeing actual sky."

For the rest of these, kicking has been random, and all kickers are fungible. Is that suddenly a lie?

3
by sundown (not verified) :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 1:08pm

Even if they're all fungible, that doesn't mean individual performances won't be affected by playing conditions. They're just saying his numbers are bound to drop because he won't be playing home games indoors any more.

4
by Josh H (not verified) :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 1:22pm

Uh, the Vikings will be playing in the dome for one more year. They will play outdoors in 2014 and 2015

15
by peterplaysbass :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 2:24pm

Is that what Andy was saying? I'm surprised he got that wrong.

Dome this year, TCF for the next two, then the new stadium, right?

17
by Aaron Schatz :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 2:31pm

That was me making the mistake about the Vikings and the Metrodome, not Andy. I'll fix it above.

As far as kickers being fungible, they generally are, but that doesn't mean some aren't better than others. However:

a) the differences between them are small
b) compared to other positions, many more kickers are average and fewer are either above or below average.
c) the only really good ways to judge the differences between kickers are kickoff distance and whether they have enough leg strength to make it worth attempting very long field goals.

23
by peterplaysbass :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 3:02pm

Good deal. Love the site, btw!

Your point about a higher percentage of kickers being average than other positions is why I bake starndard deviation scores into my fantasy big boards. It's basically the same idea as that which inspired value based drafting which values all positions against each other based on each individual's proximity to the position's average.

Flat bell curve means wait!

29
by Anonymousasarandom (not verified) :: Mon, 04/29/2013 - 4:34pm

Blair Walsh hits 50+ yarders like they're nothing. He hit 56 yarders that would have been good from 65 I think, or at least 60. Basically his high accuracy and massive power behind his kicks makes me believe that the Vikings need one less conversion on offense than everyone else to even get in range, that they will make 3 points when even on the outside of that range and that if you start from the average field position on kickoffs of the 22 and every conversion goes about 5-7 yards past the first down, they only need 2 first down conversions and maybe 5 yards or so to be in range which he is unlikely to miss.
Blair Walsh not only provides Vikings opponents with an average field position probably behind their 20 yardline with his touchbacks and high kickoffs, but on top of that you put an extra 10 yards of length on his kicks and then some, and you are talking about 1 less conversion per drive to put up points. That likely works out to be probably around 6 points or so per game more than the average kicker. 5 extra yards on kickoffs than average team plus 10 on field goal attempts or whatever the number is, is huge.

It also helps that the Vikes are one of the best teams in the league at keeping the lead. This is due to Adrian Peterson, the front 4 and a bend but don't break defense and balanced offense with passes that are high completion percentage. I think Blair Walsh absolutely is a star, and the fact Vikings were pretty "average" in most areas except for Adrian Peterson goes to show you the under rated vale of Blair Walsh. A bit of it is leveraging the lead with their style of play, if they trail in a game that same leverage will go against them, so it is vital they do not fall behind.

Needing approximately one less conversion than every other team is a huge advantage. I guess maybe it's early to label Walsh a star, but I think he is one of the most under rated players in the entire NFL because I think people don't properly value what being able to score 3 points from 10 yards behind the average kicker makes.

18
by Josh H (not verified) :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 2:33pm

that's the plan.

2
by Karl Cuba :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 1:01pm

"Ponder must get firmer in the pocket" - Is that a euphemism?

7
by jonnyblazin :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 1:38pm

Maybe Samantha Steele can help him with that.

28
by Sifter :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 6:28pm

The offense overview section also expresses a hope that Greg Jennings will fill Percy Harvin's void...It could be the love boat all over again!

5
by Josh H (not verified) :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 1:25pm

I would peg Charlie Johnson black. he's definitely adequate.

6
by Josh H (not verified) :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 1:28pm

Gerhart should be black as well. he's more than JAG. I think he'd start for a lot of other teams. He's a grinder and follows blocks quite well. I think he gets traded in the draft tonight.

11
by rageon :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 2:08pm

I assumed everyone is supposed to be rated in their individual roles, rather than overall. Toby would certianly be "just a guy" as a starter, but as a backup, I've got to think he's better than what half the teams have as a #2 RB.

20
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 2:52pm

"Gerhart should be black as well."

You're just saying that because he's a RB.

24
by Josh H (not verified) :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 3:04pm

Maybe, you are right that RBs tend to be interchangable, but I like the way he runs. He very good in the screen game too.

25
by Karl Cuba :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 3:07pm

I think you've missed the joke.

26
by peterplaysbass :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 3:17pm

Albino Rhino!

27
by Josh H (not verified) :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 3:56pm

ya, that one sailed over my head initially, Nice.

8
by Reinhard (not verified) :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 1:49pm

Gerhart sucks. go watch the end niner game... nearly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The only reason he was in there was charity in the first place.

I think he's worse than JAG. he is a liability.
That is based on watching him on the field (eyeball test)
Let's look at the statistics:
-34DYAR.
-25.9 DVOA

He benefits from being a "change of pace" to AP, which should give him an advantage. When he's in there, the defense will relax a little bit on the run - it's not like with AP where you make a small mistake and he will rip off a 80-yarder on you or something.
AP puts up 24.9% DVOA in the same system, and everyone is focusing on him.

9
by Josh H (not verified) :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 2:03pm

He was also the grinder in garbage time, which would affect his FO stats. He only had 50 carries all year. In 2011 he got 110 carries and finished with a 60 DYAR and a 5.4 DVOA that was behind a garbage offensive line.

13
by peterplaysbass :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 2:21pm

Gerhart is better than you think. He's big enough to be a bruiser but agile enough to slip a few tackles. There's not much speed or quickness there, obviosuly, but he would be an upgrade at RB1 for at least 10 teams.

I wonder what kind of pick the Vikings could get for him tonight.

10
by theslothook :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 2:05pm

I think andy was short changing the vikes a bit. Sullivan should be a blue. I also think greenway should also btw.

12
by Josh H (not verified) :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 2:14pm

I agree with Sullivan being blue, he would have been if there was better play at guard spots. I think Greenway is a fair green, he's not quite an elite coverage guy and his blitzes don't seem to get home enough.

14
by peterplaysbass :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 2:22pm

Yeah, Kalil and Sullivan are both stars IMO. Johnson's adequate and Fusco is just a guy. It upsets me the Schawartz didn't get more time at guard - instead MN just keeps waiting for Fusco to develop.

16
by Josh H (not verified) :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 2:30pm

I think you're looking through purple glasses man, I saw your prediction comment at the end of the Packer piece. Kalil is a fair green, he needs to improve his run blocking.

21
by peterplaysbass :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 2:54pm

You're likely correct. Maybe I had dreams about a scenario where drafting a guard early and keeping Schwartz instead of Fusco would've resulted in one of the best overall lines in the league. It's hard to tell if your better players are being dragged down by poor players, sometimes, although I will admit that Kalil's technique in the running game shows room for improvement.

19
by peterplaysbass :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 2:49pm

Simpson and Wright are both "jury's out" guys, I think. Simpson has been with the team for a year and dealt with back issues. Even if you want to label Simpson as adequate or JAG, surely Wright gets more time before we label him, right? We were a long way into the season before he saw anything approaching significant field time.

22
by Josh H (not verified) :: Thu, 04/25/2013 - 3:00pm

Simpson at this point is a JAG, he's been in the league too long and is what he is. I think Wright is a jury's out guy. He was able to beat man coverage quite well at the end of the year.

30
by Buxolo :: Sat, 06/01/2013 - 10:29pm

I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 yr outdated daughter and mentioned "You'll be able to hear the ocean when you put this to your ear." She placed the shell to her ear and screamed. Margahayuland | Penting, Panas, Perlu dan Seruu

31
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