Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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Football Outsiders

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25 Sep 2008

1998 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Regular season totals, playoffs not included

Revised as of 8/8/2008

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings for 1998, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league averaged based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. NON-ADJ TOTAL VOA does not include these adjustments.

As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. LAST YEAR represents 1997 rank.

TEAM TOTAL
DVOA		 LAST
YEAR		 NON-ADJ
TOT VOA		 W-L OFFENSE
DVOA		 OFF.
RANK		 DEFENSE
DVOA		 DEF.
RANK		 S.T.
DVOA		 S.T.
RANK
1 DEN 29.7% 2 36.6% 14-2 28.5% 1 0.4% 19 1.6% 10
2 MIN 27.0% 16 35.7% 15-1 25.4% 3 -0.6% 18 0.9% 15
3 SF 26.8% 3 24.8% 12-4 25.8% 2 -3.8% 15 -2.8% 26
4 NYJ 26.4% 17 18.3% 12-4 13.0% 5 -14.3% 4 -0.9% 20
5 ATL 26.3% 19 34.6% 14-2 10.1% 7 -13.4% 5 2.8% 3
6 MIA 21.6% 20 13.8% 10-6 -4.9% 15 -25.7% 1 0.8% 16
7 BUF 16.0% 24 15.8% 10-6 14.3% 4 -3.1% 16 -1.4% 23
8 DAL 14.6% 14 23.9% 10-6 11.3% 6 4.5% 23 7.8% 1
9 GB 13.2% 4 18.9% 11-5 1.8% 11 -9.9% 8 1.5% 11
10 NE 8.7% 8 3.3% 9-7 -0.6% 12 -8.0% 10 1.4% 12
11 SEA 6.5% 15 8.5% 8-8 -7.2% 18 -10.0% 6 3.7% 2
12 JAC 4.7% 5 10.0% 11-5 4.0% 9 0.6% 20 1.4% 13
13 TB 1.2% 9 1.4% 8-8 -11.0% 21 -9.9% 7 2.3% 6
14 TEN -1.1% 12 3.7% 8-8 9.5% 8 12.8% 28 2.2% 8
15 BAL -3.9% 10 -3.2% 6-10 -11.6% 22 -5.3% 14 2.4% 5
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA		 LAST
YEAR		 NON-ADJ
TOT VOA		 W-L OFFENSE
DVOA		 OFF.
RANK		 DEFENSE
DVOA		 DEF.
RANK		 S.T.
DVOA		 S.T.
RANK
16 NYG -4.3% 11 -4.3% 8-8 -12.7% 25 -9.2% 9 -0.8% 19
17 PIT -5.7% 6 -5.9% 7-9 -11.7% 23 -6.1% 12 0.0% 17
18 KC -6.1% 1 -5.9% 7-9 -7.0% 17 -2.2% 17 -1.3% 22
19 DET -6.2% 7 -11.1% 5-11 -2.9% 13 5.2% 24 1.9% 9
20 STL -7.4% 22 -13.6% 4-12 -12.9% 26 -6.2% 11 -0.7% 18
21 CHI -9.8% 28 -19.0% 4-12 -8.7% 19 3.4% 22 2.3% 7
22 NO -10.7% 30 -14.7% 6-10 -18.8% 27 -5.6% 13 2.5% 4
23 SD -13.5% 29 -14.8% 5-11 -26.7% 29 -17.4% 3 -4.2% 29
24 CAR -13.6% 23 -14.8% 4-12 -11.7% 24 2.8% 21 0.9% 14
25 OAK -14.5% 26 -17.0% 8-8 -24.9% 28 -18.1% 2 -7.7% 30
26 IND -15.3% 25 -23.7% 3-13 2.6% 10 16.8% 29 -1.1% 21
27 ARI -18.7% 27 -9.7% 9-7 -10.6% 20 6.7% 25 -1.4% 24
28 WAS -20.2% 13 -20.0% 6-10 -3.9% 14 12.4% 27 -4.0% 28
29 CIN -30.6% 18 -32.4% 3-13 -6.3% 16 21.3% 30 -2.9% 27
30 PHI -36.2% 21 -35.1% 3-13 -26.9% 30 6.7% 26 -2.5% 25
  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close.  It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles.  It is based on the number of games a team has played so far, so teams which have not had their bye will appear higher.
  • WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.
  • 1998 SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#30, most negative).
  • PYTHAGOREAN WINS represent the number of wins projected from the team's points scored and allowed, as described in this article.
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance.  Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, Buffalo) to least consistent (#30, New York Jets).
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA		 W-L ESTIM.
WINS		 RANK WEIGHTED
DVOA		 RANK 1998
SCHED		 RANK PYTH
WINS		 RANK VAR. RANK
1 DEN 29.7% 14-2 12.2 2 24.4% 4 -6.0% 28 12.1 2 12.3% 12
2 MIN 27.0% 15-1 11.9 3 26.5% 3 -3.6% 24 13.1 1 11.5% 11
3 SF 26.8% 12-4 11.0 5 19.7% 6 0.5% 13 11.4 5 13.7% 18
4 NYJ 26.4% 12-4 11.4 4 33.1% 2 5.6% 6 11.9 3 28.0% 30
5 ATL 26.3% 14-2 12.5 1 38.5% 1 -1.6% 18 11.7 4 13.9% 20
6 MIA 21.6% 10-6 10.8 6 19.5% 7 5.0% 7 9.8 8 17.2% 26
7 BUF 16.0% 10-6 10.0 7 20.4% 5 1.5% 11 9.7 9 5.2% 1
8 DAL 14.6% 10-6 9.7 8 9.7% 9 -9.4% 29 10.9 6 13.8% 19
9 GB 13.2% 11-5 9.5 10 11.5% 8 -2.8% 22 10.3 7 14.6% 22
10 NE 8.7% 9-7 9.5 9 1.4% 15 9.3% 1 8.2 14 13.3% 17
11 SEA 6.5% 8-8 8.7 12 5.8% 10 -4.1% 27 9.7 10 14.0% 21
12 JAC 4.7% 11-5 9.3 11 5.2% 11 -0.6% 15 9.4 11 11.3% 9
13 TB 1.2% 8-8 7.9 13 2.6% 14 -2.1% 20 8.6 12 15.3% 24
14 TEN -1.1% 8-8 7.9 14 3.1% 13 -0.7% 16 8.3 13 7.6% 6
15 BAL -3.9% 6-10 7.5 18 -9.7% 19 -3.6% 26 6.0 23 15.4% 25
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA		 W-L ESTIM.
WINS		 RANK WEIGHTED
DVOA		 RANK 1998
SCHED		 RANK PYTH
WINS		 RANK VAR. RANK
16 NYG -4.3% 8-8 7.8 15 3.3% 12 -3.6% 25 7.3 15 26.0% 29
17 PIT -5.7% 7-9 7.6 17 -3.5% 16 -2.0% 19 6.7 17 12.6% 14
18 KC -6.1% 7-9 7.8 16 -10.7% 22 0.4% 14 7.0 16 20.7% 28
19 DET -6.2% 5-11 7.2 19 -5.2% 17 1.6% 10 6.0 21 12.4% 13
20 STL -7.4% 4-12 6.9 21 -10.1% 20 5.8% 5 5.4 25 13.3% 16
21 CHI -9.8% 4-12 6.0 25 -13.4% 25 4.9% 8 5.4 26 14.7% 23
22 NO -10.7% 6-10 6.0 26 -11.3% 24 7.5% 4 6.5 19 17.6% 27
23 SD -13.5% 5-11 6.2 22 -15.9% 26 -3.3% 23 4.9 27 5.7% 2
24 CAR -13.6% 4-12 6.9 20 -10.2% 21 8.0% 3 6.1 20 7.0% 5
25 OAK -14.5% 8-8 6.1 24 -19.5% 28 0.5% 12 6.0 22 5.7% 3
26 IND -15.3% 3-13 6.1 23 -7.0% 18 8.3% 2 4.8 28 11.4% 10
27 ARI -18.7% 9-7 5.9 27 -19.3% 27 -9.6% 30 6.6 18 10.9% 8
28 WAS -20.2% 6-10 5.6 28 -10.7% 23 -2.5% 21 5.5 24 9.8% 7
29 CIN -30.6% 3-13 4.4 29 -35.1% 30 2.5% 9 3.6 29 7.0% 4
30 PHI -36.2% 3-13 3.2 30 -28.7% 29 -0.9% 17 2.3 30 12.9% 15

DVOA version: 5.0

Posted by: holman on 25 Sep 2008

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