Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

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2005 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

through games of 1/4/06

Beginning with the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are four key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

Special Teams F/+ has been added to the overall F/+ formula starting with 2007. It is a direct offshoot of the Special Teams Efficiency rating found on the FEI page. To read about the rationale behind this adjustment, go here. For years before 2007, an even combination of S&P+ and FEI is used.

F/+
Rk		 Team Record F/+ S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
1 Texas 13-0 +39.9% 298.0 1 0.342 1
2 USC 12-1 +35.4% 283.0 2 0.326 2
3 Ohio State 10-2 +32.3% 279.2 3 0.283 3
4 Virginia Tech 11-2 +28.4% 267.3 4 0.262 5
5 Penn State 11-1 +27.9% 263.6 5 0.272 4
6 Alabama 10-2 +24.2% 263.3 6 0.199 11
7 Auburn 9-3 +22.2% 251.8 7 0.214 10
8 LSU 11-2 +22.1% 246.0 10 0.241 6
9 Georgia 10-3 +21.8% 247.9 8 0.226 7
10 Notre Dame 9-3 +19.4% 238.5 14 0.224 8
11 Miami 9-3 +18.9% 242.0 12 0.196 12
12 Michigan 7-5 +18.7% 237.3 15 0.215 9
13 West Virginia 11-1 +18.2% 240.0 13 0.193 13
14 Boston College 9-3 +18.1% 246.2 9 0.161 19
15 Florida 9-3 +16.7% 235.5 16 0.184 14
16 Louisville 9-3 +15.7% 244.0 11 0.123 26
17 Oregon 10-2 +15.1% 230.4 19 0.177 15
18 Iowa 7-5 +15.0% 231.6 18 0.170 17
19 Texas Tech 9-3 +14.7% 234.6 17 0.149 22
20 TCU 11-1 +14.7% 230.1 20 0.170 16
F/+
Rk		 Team Record F/+ S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
21 Clemson 8-4 +14.4% 229.0 21 0.170 18
22 Florida State 8-5 +12.9% 225.2 25 0.158 20
23 Oklahoma 8-4 +12.3% 227.5 23 0.134 23
24 Tennessee 5-6 +10.9% 227.8 22 0.106 31
25 Minnesota 7-5 +10.6% 224.7 26 0.116 28
26 Wisconsin 10-3 +10.1% 214.3 39 0.157 21
27 Georgia Tech 7-5 +9.2% 220.5 29 0.106 30
28 N.C. State 7-5 +8.8% 216.4 36 0.119 27
29 Fresno State 8-5 +8.6% 226.7 24 0.065 37
30 Arizona State 7-5 +8.4% 217.9 33 0.104 32
31 Iowa State 7-5 +8.3% 211.9 44 0.132 24
32 Nebraska 8-4 +8.2% 212.3 42 0.128 25
33 Tulsa 9-4 +7.5% 213.7 40 0.107 29
34 South Florida 6-6 +7.5% 223.5 27 0.059 40
35 Northwestern 7-5 +7.0% 218.5 30 0.074 36
36 Maryland 5-6 +6.4% 218.1 31 0.063 38
37 Southern Miss 7-5 +5.5% 210.1 48 0.085 34
38 California 8-4 +5.4% 208.6 52 0.090 33
39 Kansas 7-5 +5.2% 221.1 28 0.024 50
40 Utah 7-5 +5.0% 212.5 41 0.062 39
F/+
Rk		 Team Record F/+ S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
41 UCLA 10-2 +4.7% 208.4 53 0.077 35
42 Michigan State 5-6 +4.3% 217.4 34 0.026 49
43 Northern Illinois 7-5 +4.2% 217.9 32 0.019 54
44 Colorado 7-6 +3.6% 215.4 37 0.020 53
45 South Carolina 7-5 +3.5% 212.2 43 0.034 45
46 UAB 5-6 +3.0% 206.6 56 0.052 41
47 Toledo 9-3 +2.5% 216.5 35 -0.006 64
48 BYU 6-6 +2.5% 210.9 46 0.021 52
49 Memphis 7-5 +2.5% 208.0 54 0.034 46
50 Missouri 7-5 +2.3% 211.0 45 0.017 55
51 Washington State 4-7 +2.3% 209.5 51 0.022 51
52 Purdue 5-6 +2.0% 207.2 55 0.028 48
53 Texas A&M 5-6 +1.9% 215.2 38 -0.013 66
54 Virginia 7-5 +1.8% 204.5 58 0.038 43
55 Arkansas 4-7 +1.4% 210.0 49 0.002 61
56 Pittsburgh 5-6 +0.8% 209.8 50 -0.009 65
57 Boise State 9-4 +0.7% 210.6 47 -0.014 68
58 Arizona 3-8 +0.6% 200.8 63 0.032 47
59 Vanderbilt 5-6 +0.2% 197.8 68 0.038 42
60 UTEP 8-4 -0.1% 201.8 62 0.012 57
F/+
Rk		 Team Record F/+ S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
61 Houston 6-6 -0.3% 202.5 60 0.005 60
62 Wake Forest 4-7 -0.3% 196.2 74 0.035 44
63 New Mexico 6-5 -0.4% 199.7 65 0.017 56
64 Connecticut 5-6 -0.8% 205.5 57 -0.020 71
65 Rutgers 7-5 -1.2% 203.7 59 -0.018 70
66 North Carolina 5-6 -1.8% 198.7 66 -0.005 63
67 Navy 8-4 -1.9% 194.9 78 0.010 59
68 Stanford 5-6 -2.0% 194.4 79 0.011 58
69 Kansas State 5-6 -2.5% 197.5 69 -0.013 67
70 Baylor 5-6 -3.0% 193.4 82 -0.004 62
71 Central Michigan 6-5 -3.2% 196.5 72 -0.024 72
72 Air Force 4-7 -3.2% 197.2 70 -0.027 73
73 Wyoming 4-7 -3.2% 199.9 64 -0.040 77
74 Oregon State 5-6 -3.8% 196.3 73 -0.035 75
75 San Diego State 5-7 -3.8% 196.8 71 -0.037 76
76 SMU 5-6 -4.2% 190.9 84 -0.016 69
77 Miami (Ohio) 7-4 -5.2% 195.6 76 -0.058 80
78 Washington 2-9 -5.2% 198.4 67 -0.073 83
79 Akron 7-6 -5.4% 193.5 81 -0.053 79
80 Central Florida 8-5 -5.6% 187.7 86 -0.029 74
F/+
Rk		 Team Record F/+ S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
81 East Carolina 5-6 -5.9% 191.2 83 -0.051 78
82 Colorado State 6-6 -5.9% 193.6 80 -0.063 81
83 Louisiana Tech 7-4 -6.2% 195.9 75 -0.081 84
84 Bowling Green 6-5 -7.2% 195.4 77 -0.099 90
85 Oklahoma State 4-7 -8.4% 185.0 90 -0.070 82
86 Middle Tennessee 4-7 -8.6% 186.4 88 -0.081 85
87 Army 4-7 -9.4% 185.3 89 -0.092 87
88 Marshall 4-7 -10.2% 180.6 93 -0.087 86
89 Syracuse 1-10 -10.8% 179.9 94 -0.094 89
90 Ole Miss 3-8 -11.0% 178.9 96 -0.094 88
91 Nevada 9-3 -11.4% 190.7 85 -0.159 99
92 Eastern Michigan 4-7 -11.6% 182.5 92 -0.123 93
93 Hawaii 5-7 -11.6% 202.0 61 -0.219 110
94 Indiana 4-7 -11.7% 179.8 95 -0.112 91
95 Mississippi State 3-8 -11.8% 183.6 91 -0.132 94
96 Western Michigan 7-4 -12.3% 178.9 97 -0.119 92
97 UL-Lafayette 6-5 -14.0% 186.5 87 -0.190 104
98 Kentucky 3-8 -14.7% 174.8 101 -0.147 96
99 Rice 1-10 -15.3% 173.5 104 -0.152 97
100 Ohio 4-7 -16.0% 173.7 103 -0.168 100
F/+
Rk		 Team Record F/+ S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
101 Tulane 2-9 -16.4% 166.5 112 -0.140 95
102 Ball State 4-7 -16.6% 175.1 100 -0.188 103
103 Cincinnati 4-7 -17.0% 172.5 107 -0.181 102
104 Arkansas State 6-6 -17.6% 178.2 98 -0.222 112
105 Florida International 5-6 -17.9% 174.3 102 -0.209 107
106 Kent State 1-10 -18.2% 162.2 114 -0.155 98
107 Illinois 2-9 -18.2% 175.4 99 -0.220 111
108 Troy 4-7 -18.6% 172.9 106 -0.216 109
109 UNLV 2-9 -18.6% 168.8 109 -0.196 105
110 San Jose State 3-8 -19.7% 168.1 110 -0.215 108
111 Idaho 2-9 -20.2% 169.2 108 -0.230 113
112 UL-Monroe 5-6 -20.2% 173.2 105 -0.250 116
113 Duke 1-10 -20.3% 156.9 116 -0.171 101
114 Utah State 3-8 -20.9% 166.9 111 -0.232 115
115 North Texas 2-9 -21.6% 157.0 115 -0.198 106
116 Buffalo 1-10 -23.7% 154.9 117 -0.231 114
117 Florida Atlantic 2-9 -23.8% 163.6 113 -0.274 118
118 New Mexico State 0-12 -25.8% 152.0 118 -0.257 117
119 Temple 0-11 -30.0% 148.0 119 -0.323 119