Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

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2006 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

through games of 1/8/07

Beginning with the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are four key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

Special Teams F/+ has been added to the overall F/+ formula starting with 2007. It is a direct offshoot of the Special Teams Efficiency rating found on the FEI page. To read about the rationale behind this adjustment, go here. For years before 2007, an even combination of S&P+ and FEI is used.

F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ S&P+ S&P+
Rk		 FEI FEI
Rk
1 LSU 11-2 +31.9% 280.8 1 0.273 3
2 Florida 13-1 +31.3% 268.6 4 0.320 1
3 Louisville 12-1 +29.3% 274.8 2 0.250 4
4 Ohio State 12-1 +28.0% 271.5 3 0.241 5
5 USC 11-2 +27.3% 254.2 8 0.311 2
6 Michigan 11-2 +23.7% 261.6 5 0.203 12
7 BYU 11-2 +23.0% 256.9 6 0.213 9
8 West Virginia 11-2 +22.9% 253.5 9 0.226 6
9 Boise State 13-0 +21.5% 252.8 10 0.201 13
10 Tennessee 9-4 +20.5% 245.8 14 0.216 8
11 Virginia Tech 10-3 +19.8% 251.0 11 0.175 19
12 Oklahoma 11-3 +19.7% 246.2 13 0.198 14
13 Rutgers 11-2 +18.7% 245.4 15 0.182 18
14 Arkansas 10-4 +18.7% 240.3 18 0.206 10
15 Wisconsin 12-1 +17.7% 244.3 16 0.167 21
16 Boston College 10-3 +17.6% 236.3 20 0.203 11
17 TCU 11-2 +17.2% 255.2 7 0.104 32
18 Clemson 8-5 +16.9% 240.9 17 0.168 20
19 California 10-3 +16.7% 228.4 26 0.225 7
20 Auburn 11-2 +16.5% 233.4 22 0.196 15
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ S&P+ S&P+
Rk		 FEI FEI
Rk
21 Texas 10-3 +16.4% 235.3 21 0.185 17
22 Hawaii 11-3 +16.2% 248.1 12 0.119 30
23 South Carolina 8-5 +15.0% 237.0 19 0.149 24
24 Georgia 9-4 +14.8% 226.4 28 0.196 16
25 Notre Dame 10-3 +13.1% 227.1 27 0.159 23
26 Georgia Tech 9-5 +13.0% 229.3 25 0.145 25
27 Nebraska 9-5 +12.6% 229.7 24 0.135 26
28 Missouri 8-5 +10.8% 225.6 29 0.119 28
29 Texas A&M 9-4 +10.3% 223.0 33 0.123 27
30 Wake Forest 11-3 +9.9% 213.8 48 0.160 22
31 Oklahoma State 7-6 +9.3% 222.1 35 0.107 31
32 Penn State 9-4 +9.1% 231.8 23 0.055 46
33 Florida State 7-6 +9.0% 222.8 34 0.098 34
34 South Florida 9-4 +8.9% 225.4 31 0.083 35
35 Oregon State 10-4 +8.8% 217.3 40 0.119 29
36 UCLA 7-6 +7.6% 216.1 44 0.101 33
37 Cincinnati 8-5 +7.5% 225.5 30 0.055 47
38 Texas Tech 8-5 +7.3% 223.4 32 0.060 41
39 Alabama 6-7 +7.2% 220.9 36 0.071 37
40 Miami 7-6 +6.7% 220.1 38 0.065 39
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ S&P+ S&P+
Rk		 FEI FEI
Rk
41 Arizona State 7-6 +6.5% 216.2 43 0.079 36
42 Pittsburgh 6-6 +6.2% 219.8 39 0.057 44
43 Oregon 7-6 +5.9% 217.3 41 0.062 40
44 Houston 10-4 +5.2% 214.9 46 0.059 43
45 Southern Miss 9-5 +3.9% 214.3 47 0.037 51
46 Utah 8-5 +3.7% 216.2 42 0.024 53
47 Nevada 8-5 +3.5% 220.3 37 0.000 61
48 Iowa 6-7 +3.2% 216.0 45 0.015 55
49 Maryland 9-4 +3.1% 206.2 53 0.060 42
50 Kentucky 8-5 +3.0% 210.4 51 0.038 50
51 Tulsa 8-5 +3.0% 213.6 49 0.022 54
52 Washington State 6-6 +2.5% 204.7 55 0.056 45
53 Kansas 6-6 +1.7% 204.8 54 0.038 49
54 Minnesota 6-7 +1.6% 212.5 50 0.000 62
55 Arizona 6-6 +1.3% 196.7 66 0.070 38
56 East Carolina 7-6 +0.7% 209.1 52 -0.003 63
57 Navy 9-4 +0.4% 202.0 58 0.027 52
58 Central Michigan 10-4 -0.6% 202.9 57 0.002 59
59 Kansas State 7-6 -0.9% 200.9 59 0.006 57
60 Washington 5-7 -1.2% 192.6 71 0.039 48
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ S&P+ S&P+
Rk		 FEI FEI
Rk
61 Vanderbilt 4-8 -1.5% 198.5 62 0.006 58
62 Virginia 5-7 -2.2% 199.8 60 -0.015 65
63 Colorado 2-10 -2.8% 194.1 70 0.000 60
64 Northern Illinois 7-6 -3.0% 197.6 64 -0.021 66
65 N.C. State 3-9 -3.1% 191.9 72 0.006 56
66 Western Michigan 8-5 -3.3% 195.1 67 -0.015 64
67 Purdue 8-6 -4.0% 196.7 65 -0.035 67
68 New Mexico 6-7 -4.4% 198.0 63 -0.050 70
69 Wyoming 6-6 -4.4% 203.5 56 -0.077 78
70 Illinois 2-10 -4.9% 199.5 61 -0.068 74
71 Ohio 9-5 -5.8% 194.2 69 -0.059 73
72 Michigan State 4-8 -6.3% 191.2 75 -0.054 72
73 UL-Monroe 4-8 -6.3% 190.6 77 -0.053 71
74 Ole Miss 4-8 -6.6% 186.9 86 -0.041 68
75 Northwestern 4-8 -7.1% 190.8 76 -0.068 75
76 Air Force 4-8 -7.1% 194.6 68 -0.087 81
77 San Jose State 9-4 -7.1% 191.9 73 -0.075 77
78 Syracuse 4-8 -7.2% 190.6 78 -0.070 76
79 Mississippi State 3-9 -7.4% 183.8 93 -0.041 69
80 Fresno State 4-8 -8.2% 190.2 80 -0.088 82
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ S&P+ S&P+
Rk		 FEI FEI
Rk
81 SMU 6-6 -8.8% 187.8 85 -0.089 83
82 Ball State 5-7 -8.8% 186.4 88 -0.082 80
83 UTEP 5-7 -9.0% 191.5 74 -0.111 92
84 Marshall 5-7 -9.2% 190.5 79 -0.110 91
85 Connecticut 4-8 -9.2% 188.4 83 -0.101 87
86 Akron 5-7 -9.3% 188.1 84 -0.100 86
87 UAB 3-9 -9.9% 181.7 96 -0.082 79
88 Middle Tennessee 7-6 -10.1% 189.8 81 -0.124 95
89 Rice 7-6 -10.4% 185.2 91 -0.108 89
90 Baylor 4-8 -10.5% 185.4 90 -0.110 90
91 New Mexico State 4-8 -10.7% 182.3 94 -0.099 85
92 Indiana 5-7 -10.8% 185.4 89 -0.117 93
93 North Carolina 3-9 -11.7% 180.0 99 -0.108 88
94 Colorado State 4-8 -12.0% 182.3 95 -0.125 96
95 Central Florida 4-8 -12.1% 188.8 82 -0.160 101
96 Troy 8-5 -12.2% 186.5 87 -0.150 100
97 Memphis 2-10 -12.7% 179.6 100 -0.126 97
98 Miami (Ohio) 2-10 -12.7% 173.2 105 -0.095 84
99 Iowa State 4-8 -12.7% 178.8 101 -0.123 94
100 UL-Lafayette 6-6 -14.1% 180.9 98 -0.162 102
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ S&P+ S&P+
Rk		 FEI FEI
Rk
101 Toledo 5-7 -14.5% 181.4 97 -0.171 104
102 Tulane 4-8 -15.2% 185.0 92 -0.203 108
103 Kent State 6-6 -15.4% 177.6 102 -0.170 103
104 Stanford 1-11 -16.5% 167.0 110 -0.141 99
105 Bowling Green 4-8 -16.7% 173.7 104 -0.178 106
106 Duke 0-12 -18.1% 159.2 115 -0.136 98
107 Arkansas State 6-6 -18.5% 175.4 103 -0.222 111
108 Florida International 0-12 -18.7% 165.1 111 -0.176 105
109 Florida Atlantic 5-7 -18.8% 171.6 108 -0.211 109
110 UNLV 2-10 -19.0% 171.8 107 -0.216 110
111 Eastern Michigan 1-11 -19.5% 164.0 112 -0.188 107
112 San Diego State 3-9 -19.6% 172.1 106 -0.229 113
113 Idaho 4-8 -20.3% 169.3 109 -0.229 114
114 Army 3-9 -22.5% 162.6 114 -0.240 115
115 North Texas 3-9 -22.7% 158.4 116 -0.223 112
116 Louisiana Tech 3-10 -24.5% 162.6 113 -0.281 118
117 Buffalo 2-10 -25.3% 154.7 118 -0.258 116
118 Utah State 1-11 -26.3% 155.2 117 -0.281 117
119 Temple 1-11 -33.6% 136.9 119 -0.337 119