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Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

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21 Dec 2011

2007 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

through games of 1/7/08

Beginning with the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

Special Teams F/+ has been added to the overall F/+ formula starting with 2007. It is a direct offshoot of the Special Teams Efficiency rating found on the FEI page. To read about the rationale behind this adjustment, go here. For years before 2007, the previous formula is used.

F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk
1 USC 11-2 +26.2% 1.6% 41 23.9% 1 0.7% 14
2 West Virginia 11-2 +25.3% 6.7% 21 17.8% 9 0.8% 10
3 LSU 12-2 +24.1% 6.2% 24 17.6% 10 0.3% 36
4 Florida 9-4 +23.9% 25.7% 1 -2.9% 72 1.1% 2
5 Ohio State 11-2 +23.2% 2.0% 39 20.8% 5 0.4% 29
6 Oregon 9-4 +21.6% 7.3% 17 14.1% 13 0.2% 47
7 Oklahoma 11-3 +19.3% 5.7% 27 12.8% 16 0.9% 8
8 Virginia Tech 11-3 +19.1% -3.9% 73 21.7% 4 1.3% 1
9 South Florida 9-4 +16.9% -2.7% 65 19.4% 6 0.2% 49
10 Georgia 11-2 +16.7% 2.8% 34 13.2% 14 0.7% 13
11 Missouri 12-2 +16.5% 11.1% 6 5.3% 42 0.0% 62
12 BYU 11-2 +16.0% 9.2% 9 6.7% 35 0.1% 55
13 Clemson 9-4 +15.2% -1.3% 59 16.0% 12 0.5% 24
14 Kansas 12-1 +15.0% 1.6% 40 13.0% 15 0.4% 33
15 Auburn 9-4 +14.3% -3.9% 74 18.0% 8 0.2% 43
16 Oregon State 9-4 +14.3% -8.6% 96 23.2% 2 -0.3% 86
17 Cincinnati 10-3 +13.6% 0.9% 45 11.8% 19 0.8% 11
18 Boston College 11-3 +13.0% 7.1% 18 6.5% 36 -0.7% 105
19 Tennessee 10-4 +12.8% 8.9% 11 3.6% 47 0.2% 42
20 California 7-6 +12.7% 7.5% 15 5.2% 43 0.0% 69
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk
21 Texas 10-3 +12.7% 7.0% 20 5.1% 44 0.6% 20
22 UCLA 6-7 +12.3% -11.5% 109 22.8% 3 1.0% 5
23 Michigan 9-4 +11.4% -5.6% 84 17.0% 11 0.1% 58
24 Illinois 9-4 +11.4% 5.9% 26 5.4% 40 0.1% 57
25 Arkansas 8-5 +11.2% 4.3% 29 6.9% 33 -0.1% 70
26 Arizona State 10-3 +10.8% 2.3% 35 8.2% 28 0.3% 40
27 Texas Tech 9-4 +10.4% 14.8% 3 -4.6% 85 0.2% 44
28 Penn State 9-4 +10.1% 3.7% 32 6.0% 38 0.3% 37
29 Utah 9-4 +9.9% -9.4% 101 18.4% 7 0.9% 6
30 Kentucky 8-5 +9.8% 8.9% 10 1.0% 56 -0.2% 76
31 South Carolina 6-6 +8.9% 1.0% 44 7.8% 30 0.1% 54
32 Arizona 5-7 +8.1% 0.6% 47 7.2% 31 0.4% 32
33 Michigan State 7-6 +7.8% 6.4% 23 1.1% 55 0.3% 38
34 Boise State 10-3 +7.7% 5.9% 25 0.8% 57 1.0% 4
35 Rutgers 8-5 +7.4% 5.5% 28 2.1% 51 -0.3% 80
36 Wake Forest 9-4 +7.2% -3.8% 72 10.2% 23 0.8% 12
37 Central Florida 10-4 +7.1% -3.6% 71 10.1% 24 0.6% 17
38 Wisconsin 9-4 +7.0% 7.5% 14 -1.1% 65 0.6% 19
39 TCU 8-5 +6.7% -5.7% 85 11.8% 20 0.6% 18
40 Alabama 7-6 +6.7% -3.0% 66 9.2% 25 0.5% 25
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk
41 Virginia 9-4 +6.4% -0.1% 50 6.8% 34 -0.2% 77
42 Hawaii 12-1 +6.0% 7.1% 19 -0.7% 63 -0.4% 91
43 Florida State 7-6 +6.0% -3.2% 67 8.8% 26 0.4% 31
44 Connecticut 9-4 +5.8% -5.4% 81 10.7% 22 0.5% 23
45 Oklahoma State 7-6 +5.5% 13.1% 5 -7.3% 97 -0.3% 83
46 Washington 4-9 +5.3% 7.6% 13 -2.3% 71 0.0% 65
47 Mississippi State 8-5 +4.5% -7.8% 92 12.2% 17 0.1% 60
48 Louisville 6-6 +4.3% 14.2% 4 -9.5% 104 -0.4% 93
49 Fresno State 9-4 +4.2% 6.5% 22 -3.3% 78 1.0% 3
50 Maryland 6-7 +3.7% 1.1% 43 2.2% 50 0.4% 30
51 Georgia Tech 7-6 +3.6% 4.1% 31 -1.2% 67 0.7% 15
52 Air Force 9-4 +3.3% 9.2% 8 -5.7% 92 -0.2% 78
53 Troy 8-4 +2.0% -4.0% 75 5.3% 41 0.7% 16
54 Purdue 8-5 +2.0% -2.0% 61 3.8% 46 0.1% 56
55 Tulsa 10-4 +1.8% 10.1% 7 -7.7% 99 -0.6% 103
56 Pittsburgh 5-7 +1.7% -9.8% 102 11.6% 21 -0.1% 72
57 Colorado 6-7 +0.5% -5.2% 79 5.5% 39 0.2% 51
58 Texas A&M 7-6 -0.1% 0.9% 46 -1.0% 64 0.1% 59
59 New Mexico 9-4 -0.1% -12.6% 114 12.2% 18 0.3% 34
60 Kansas State 5-7 -0.2% 2.1% 38 -3.2% 75 0.8% 9
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk
61 East Carolina 8-5 -0.5% -0.6% 53 0.4% 58 -0.3% 84
62 North Carolina 4-8 -1.7% -5.2% 80 3.4% 48 0.0% 64
63 Washington State 5-7 -2.0% 4.2% 30 -5.3% 91 -1.0% 110
64 Southern Miss 7-6 -2.2% -2.7% 64 0.3% 59 0.3% 39
65 Stanford 4-8 -2.2% -3.5% 70 1.3% 53 0.0% 67
66 Iowa 6-6 -2.2% -10.6% 106 8.5% 27 -0.1% 75
67 Nebraska 5-7 -2.2% 7.8% 12 -10.5% 107 0.4% 27
68 Navy 8-5 -2.4% 14.8% 2 -17.3% 119 0.0% 61
69 Miami 5-7 -3.0% -10.3% 104 7.9% 29 -0.6% 100
70 N.C. State 5-7 -3.3% -6.4% 86 2.9% 49 0.2% 49
71 Indiana 7-6 -3.6% -0.6% 54 -3.2% 76 0.3% 41
72 Vanderbilt 5-7 -3.6% -6.8% 88 3.9% 45 -0.7% 107
73 Houston 8-5 -4.4% -2.7% 63 -1.2% 66 -0.6% 101
74 Ball State 7-6 -5.3% -0.5% 52 -5.0% 88 0.2% 46
75 Central Michigan 8-6 -6.0% 7.3% 16 -12.9% 116 -0.3% 88
76 Wyoming 5-7 -6.7% -12.2% 112 6.2% 37 -0.7% 106
77 Florida Atlantic 8-5 -6.8% -4.2% 77 -2.1% 68 -0.5% 95
78 UTEP 4-8 -6.9% 3.2% 33 -10.6% 108 0.5% 21
79 Marshall 3-9 -7.0% 2.3% 36 -9.3% 102 0.0% 66
80 Colorado State 3-9 -7.2% -0.8% 56 -6.3% 94 -0.1% 74
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk
81 Ole Miss 3-9 -7.4% -3.2% 68 -3.1% 74 -1.1% 112
82 Northwestern 6-6 -7.5% -0.7% 55 -6.2% 93 -0.6% 99
83 Western Michigan 5-7 -7.9% -7.5% 89 -0.3% 62 0.0% 68
84 Nevada 6-7 -8.4% 1.3% 42 -8.6% 100 -1.1% 113
85 Minnesota 1-11 -8.8% 2.2% 37 -10.8% 109 -0.1% 73
86 Middle Tennessee 5-7 -9.4% -5.1% 78 -4.1% 82 -0.3% 82
87 SMU 1-11 -9.9% -0.5% 51 -9.5% 105 0.1% 52
88 Notre Dame 3-9 -10.0% -16.2% 116 7.1% 32 -0.9% 109
89 Arkansas State 5-7 -10.2% -7.6% 90 -2.2% 69 -0.3% 87
90 Bowling Green 8-5 -10.9% -1.8% 60 -9.1% 101 -0.1% 71
91 UL-Monroe 6-6 -11.0% -5.5% 82 -5.3% 90 -0.2% 79
92 Louisiana Tech 5-7 -11.0% -12.1% 111 1.5% 52 -0.4% 89
93 Ohio 6-6 -11.1% -6.7% 87 -5.0% 87 0.5% 22
94 UNLV 2-10 -12.6% -8.8% 97 -3.3% 77 -0.5% 96
95 Duke 1-11 -12.8% -7.7% 91 -3.6% 80 -1.6% 117
96 Tulane 4-8 -12.9% -7.9% 93 -4.4% 83 -0.6% 102
97 San Diego State 4-8 -13.3% 0.4% 48 -14.2% 117 0.5% 26
98 Kent State 3-9 -13.3% -9.3% 100 -3.5% 79 -0.6% 98
99 Rice 3-9 -13.5% -1.2% 58 -12.0% 113 -0.3% 81
100 Iowa State 3-9 -13.6% -8.2% 94 -4.6% 84 -0.8% 108
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk
101 UL-Lafayette 3-9 -13.8% 0.0% 49 -12.6% 115 -1.1% 115
102 Miami (Ohio) 6-7 -14.1% -13.5% 115 -0.1% 61 -0.5% 97
103 Akron 4-8 -15.6% -10.5% 105 -5.2% 89 0.2% 45
104 Toledo 5-7 -15.6% -1.1% 57 -14.7% 118 0.1% 53
105 Baylor 3-9 -15.7% -11.0% 108 -3.1% 73 -1.6% 118
106 Memphis 7-6 -15.9% -2.4% 62 -12.4% 114 -1.0% 111
107 Eastern Michigan 4-8 -16.2% -4.1% 76 -11.5% 111 -0.6% 104
108 Buffalo 5-7 -16.2% -8.9% 98 -7.6% 98 0.3% 35
109 Syracuse 2-10 -16.3% -9.1% 99 -6.9% 95 -0.3% 85
110 San Jose State 5-7 -16.4% -12.0% 110 -3.9% 81 -0.5% 94
111 New Mexico State 4-9 -16.8% -3.4% 69 -11.5% 112 -1.9% 119
112 North Texas 2-10 -16.9% -5.5% 83 -10.0% 106 -1.4% 116
113 Idaho 1-11 -16.9% -10.7% 107 -7.1% 96 0.9% 7
114 Army 3-9 -17.0% -18.1% 119 1.1% 54 0.0% 63
115 Temple 4-8 -17.4% -16.3% 117 0.0% 60 -1.1% 114
116 Northern Illinois 2-10 -17.6% -12.2% 113 -4.9% 86 -0.4% 92
117 Utah State 2-10 -19.0% -9.8% 103 -9.3% 103 0.2% 47
118 UAB 2-10 -19.3% -8.4% 95 -11.3% 110 0.4% 28
119 Florida International 1-11 -19.8% -17.1% 118 -2.3% 70 -0.4% 90

Posted by: Bill Connelly on 21 Dec 2011

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