Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

printable version

Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Need Help with KUBIAK or Premium?

blog advertising is good for you


2009 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/7/10

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed "close," or competitive. The criteria for being "close" are as follows: a game within 24 points in the first quarter, with 21 points in the second quarter, and within 16 points in the second half.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

RK TEAM RECORD S&P+ OFF.
S&P+		 RK DEF.
S&P+		 RK
1 TCU 12-1 279.1 128.4 2 150.7 2
2 Florida 13-1 276.0 128.0 4 148.1 3
3 Alabama 14-0 275.4 123.9 14 151.5 1
4 Penn State 11-2 258.9 124.9 11 134.0 8
5 Texas 13-1 253.1 119.9 18 133.3 9
6 Virginia Tech 10-3 252.1 126.7 8 125.4 14
7 Boise State 14-0 251.0 120.6 17 130.4 10
8 Ohio State 11-2 249.6 111.2 33 138.4 7
9 Oklahoma 8-5 245.9 99.9 71 146.0 5
10 Oregon 10-3 245.4 124.0 13 121.4 19
11 BYU 11-2 238.3 127.2 6 111.1 30
12 Nebraska 10-4 237.5 90.1 93 147.4 4
13 Wisconsin 10-3 237.4 121.2 16 116.2 25
14 Cincinnati 12-1 237.3 137.2 1 100.1 53
15 LSU 9-4 235.9 108.2 41 127.7 11
16 Iowa 11-2 235.8 95.0 82 140.8 6
17 Miami-FL 9-4 235.7 122.3 15 113.4 28
18 Tennessee 7-6 233.1 118.7 20 114.4 26
19 Clemson 9-5 232.7 105.1 55 127.7 12
20 Arkansas 8-5 231.6 127.0 7 104.6 45
RK TEAM RECORD S&P+ OFF.
S&P+		 RK DEF.
S&P+		 RK
21 Utah 10-3 231.1 106.5 47 124.6 15
22 Texas Tech 9-4 230.0 116.4 24 113.7 27
23 Ole Miss 9-4 227.1 105.7 51 121.5 18
24 Pittsburgh 10-3 227.0 117.1 23 109.9 33
25 South Carolina 7-6 224.8 101.6 64 123.1 17
26 West Virginia 9-4 223.3 106.2 48 117.1 23
27 Auburn 8-5 221.9 117.5 22 104.4 46
28 Troy 9-4 220.5 114.1 25 106.4 40
29 USC 9-4 220.3 111.5 31 108.8 37
30 Air Force 8-5 219.9 95.6 81 124.3 16
31 Oklahoma State 9-4 219.8 102.9 62 117.0 24
32 Georgia Tech 11-3 218.4 125.9 9 92.5 85
33 Nevada 8-5 218.1 124.5 12 93.6 79
34 Texas A&M 6-7 217.2 119.9 19 97.3 64
35 Stanford 8-5 216.4 127.8 5 88.5 100
36 Purdue 5-7 216.2 105.6 52 110.7 32
37 Middle Tennessee 10-3 216.1 97.0 78 119.1 20
38 Notre Dame 6-6 216.1 118.5 21 97.5 61
39 Florida State 7-6 215.8 125.1 10 90.7 94
40 Michigan State 6-7 215.1 113.9 26 101.2 51
RK TEAM RECORD S&P+ OFF.
S&P+		 RK DEF.
S&P+		 RK
41 North Carolina 8-5 215.1 87.5 99 127.5 13
42 Arizona 8-5 213.9 107.8 42 106.1 41
43 Houston 10-4 213.6 128.1 3 85.5 108
44 Central Michigan 12-2 212.2 109.5 37 102.8 48
45 Georgia 8-5 211.9 109.9 36 102.0 50
46 Boston College 8-5 211.8 93.3 86 118.5 21
47 Connecticut 8-5 211.0 108.9 38 102.1 49
48 Mississippi State 5-7 210.8 105.0 56 105.8 43
49 Oregon State 8-5 209.7 110.8 34 98.8 56
50 South Florida 8-5 209.7 100.0 69 109.7 34
51 Missouri 8-5 209.3 112.3 28 97.0 66
52 Michigan 5-7 208.6 111.8 30 96.8 67
53 Kansas 5-7 208.4 113.7 27 94.7 75
54 East Carolina 9-5 207.0 100.4 68 106.6 39
55 Wake Forest 5-7 205.7 107.4 45 98.2 60
56 California 8-5 205.1 107.7 43 97.4 63
57 Navy 10-4 202.7 102.7 63 100.0 54
58 Central Florida 8-5 202.7 91.6 90 111.1 29
59 UAB 5-7 202.3 111.5 32 90.8 91
60 Baylor 4-8 202.0 105.3 53 96.7 68
RK TEAM RECORD S&P+ OFF.
S&P+		 RK DEF.
S&P+		 RK
61 Arizona State 4-8 200.9 82.9 110 118.0 22
62 Kentucky 7-6 200.6 103.2 61 97.4 62
63 Southern Miss 7-6 200.1 105.8 50 94.3 76
64 Bowling Green 7-6 199.9 103.3 60 96.6 69
65 Fresno State 8-5 199.5 108.3 40 91.2 89
66 Louisiana Tech 4-8 198.8 95.7 80 103.2 47
67 Tulsa 5-7 198.5 99.9 70 98.5 59
68 Virginia 3-9 197.5 86.4 103 111.1 31
69 Washington 5-7 197.4 103.5 58 93.9 77
70 Rutgers 9-4 197.2 88.2 97 109.0 36
71 Colorado State 3-9 196.9 107.5 44 89.5 98
72 Syracuse 4-8 196.7 97.3 76 99.4 55
73 UCLA 7-6 195.8 86.7 101 109.2 35
74 Temple 9-4 194.9 99.0 72 95.9 71
75 Minnesota 6-7 194.6 89.1 96 105.5 44
76 Northwestern 8-5 194.4 97.1 77 97.2 65
77 Indiana 4-8 193.9 101.5 66 92.4 86
78 Ohio 9-5 192.4 85.1 107 107.3 38
79 Illinois 3-9 192.3 100.4 67 91.9 87
80 Idaho 7-6 191.5 110.2 35 81.3 113
RK TEAM RECORD S&P+ OFF.
S&P+		 RK DEF.
S&P+		 RK
81 Marshall 7-6 191.4 94.9 83 96.6 70
82 Buffalo 5-7 191.3 98.1 74 93.3 80
83 Iowa State 7-6 191.0 103.4 59 87.7 103
84 UTEP 4-8 190.9 105.3 54 85.6 107
85 Colorado 3-9 190.3 84.5 108 105.9 42
86 Northern Illinois 7-6 190.2 97.3 75 92.9 83
87 Hawaii 6-7 189.7 106.1 49 83.6 110
88 UL-Monroe 6-6 189.4 96.2 79 93.1 82
89 NC State 5-7 189.3 108.5 39 80.8 116
90 Utah State 4-8 189.1 98.2 73 90.9 90
91 SMU 8-5 188.6 93.4 85 95.2 73
92 Toledo 5-7 188.3 106.6 46 81.7 111
93 Florida Atlantic 5-7 186.8 111.9 29 74.9 120
94 Kansas State 6-6 186.7 94.1 84 92.6 84
95 North Texas 2-10 185.6 104.0 57 81.5 112
96 UNLV 5-7 185.5 101.6 65 83.9 109
97 Maryland 2-10 183.3 89.6 95 93.8 78
98 Louisville 4-8 183.2 91.8 88 91.4 88
99 San Diego State 4-8 183.2 90.0 94 93.2 81
100 Vanderbilt 2-10 182.7 82.1 111 100.6 52
RK TEAM RECORD S&P+ OFF.
S&P+		 RK DEF.
S&P+		 RK
101 Memphis 2-10 182.5 92.1 87 90.4 97
102 Duke 5-7 182.0 91.4 91 90.6 95
103 Wyoming 7-6 180.4 85.4 105 95.0 74
104 Arkansas State 4-8 178.7 88.0 98 90.7 93
105 UL-Lafayette 6-6 178.5 91.6 89 86.9 105
106 Kent State 5-7 177.4 78.8 114 98.5 58
107 Western Michigan 5-7 176.5 90.6 92 85.9 106
108 Akron 3-9 173.7 85.3 106 88.5 101
109 New Mexico 1-11 173.5 86.1 104 87.4 104
110 Miami-OH 1-11 172.3 81.5 112 90.8 92
111 Florida International 3-9 171.5 83.3 109 88.2 102
112 Army 4-8 171.3 72.7 118 98.6 57
113 Tulane 3-9 168.5 87.5 100 81.0 115
114 San Jose State 2-10 166.3 77.6 115 88.7 99
115 Ball State 2-10 166.1 75.6 116 90.4 96
116 Western Kentucky 0-12 161.5 86.4 102 75.1 119
117 Eastern Michigan 1-11 157.6 81.4 113 76.1 118
118 New Mexico State 4-9 157.2 62.0 119 95.2 72
119 Rice 2-10 154.9 73.7 117 81.1 114
120 Washington State 1-11 132.6 56.2 120 76.4 117