Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

printable version

Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis



2009 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P RATINGS

through games of 1/7/10

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed "close," or competitive. The criteria for being "close" are as follows: a game within 24 points in the first quarter, with 21 points in the second quarter, and within 16 points in the second half.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

RANK TEAM RECORD S&P+ LAST WK
 CHANGE OFF S&P+
 RANK DEF S&P+
 RANK
1 Alabama 14-0 279.0 1 0 129.6 5 149.4 1
2 Florida 13-1 277.3 2 0 129.0 6 148.3 2
3 TCU 12-1 274.9 3 0 129.9 4 145.0 4
4 Virginia Tech 10-3 256.0 7 3 134.0 2 122.0 16
5 Texas 13-1 255.3 4 -1 124.1 13 131.2 9
6 Penn State 11-2 249.7 5 -1 121.8 17 127.9 10
7 Oklahoma 8-5 249.5 6 -1 101.9 56 147.6 3
8 Boise State 14-0 247.6 11 3 114.0 24 133.6 8
9 Ohio State 11-2 246.5 9 0 112.5 26 134.0 7
10 Oregon 10-3 243.6 8 -2 124.4 11 119.2 18
11 BYU 11-2 238.8 13 2 126.2 8 112.6 26
12 Miami-FL 9-4 237.4 14 2 124.3 12 113.1 24
13 LSU 9-4 237.0 17 4 110.1 30 126.8 12
14 Tennessee 7-6 235.6 12 -2 123.9 14 111.7 27
15 Wisconsin 10-3 234.3 18 3 119.9 18 114.4 23
16 Arkansas 8-5 233.5 10 -6 130.1 3 103.4 43
17 Cincinnati 12-1 233.5 16 -1 134.5 1 99.0 51
18 Nebraska 10-4 232.5 21 3 89.4 87 143.2 5
19 Iowa 11-2 232.5 15 -4 93.8 77 138.7 6
20 Clemson 9-5 228.6 20 0 103.4 48 125.2 14
RANK TEAM RECORD S&P+ LAST WK
 CHANGE OFF S&P+
 RANK DEF S&P+
 RANK
21 South Carolina 7-6 226.2 19 -2 103.4 49 122.8 15
22 Utah 10-3 225.9 23 1 104.7 42 121.2 17
23 Texas Tech 9-4 222.5 24 1 114.8 22 107.7 32
24 Pittsburgh 10-3 222.1 25 1 115.8 20 106.3 35
25 Auburn 8-5 221.7 22 -3 117.7 19 104.0 41
26 Air Force 8-5 219.6 38 12 93.9 76 125.7 13
27 Ole Miss 9-4 219.4 31 4 102.9 52 116.5 19
28 West Virginia 9-4 219.0 26 -2 104.3 45 114.7 22
29 Georgia Tech 11-3 218.9 29 0 128.2 7 90.7 77
30 Texas A&M 6-7 216.9 28 -2 123.2 15 93.8 65
31 Oklahoma State 9-4 216.7 27 -4 100.4 59 116.4 20
32 Florida State 7-6 216.5 40 8 126.2 9 90.3 80
33 Mississippi State 5-7 215.3 33 0 107.7 37 107.6 33
34 Michigan State 6-7 214.7 32 -2 114.6 23 100.1 49
35 USC 9-4 214.5 34 -1 110.7 28 103.8 42
36 Troy 9-4 214.5 39 3 108.3 36 106.1 37
37 North Carolina 8-5 213.8 43 6 86.3 97 127.6 11
38 Purdue 5-7 213.4 35 -3 102.2 53 111.2 28
39 Notre Dame 6-6 211.4 37 -2 112.7 25 98.7 52
40 Stanford 8-5 211.2 44 4 125.9 10 85.3 104
RANK TEAM RECORD S&P+ LAST WK
 CHANGE OFF S&P+
 RANK DEF S&P+
 RANK
41 Georgia 8-5 210.7 36 -5 110.7 29 100.1 50
42 Nevada 8-5 210.6 30 -12 115.0 21 95.6 60
43 Connecticut 8-5 209.7 45 2 109.1 33 100.6 48
44 Arizona 8-5 207.6 41 -3 106.4 41 101.2 47
45 Houston 10-4 205.5 46 1 123.2 16 82.4 105
46 South Florida 8-5 205.5 49 3 96.4 71 109.1 31
47 Middle Tennessee 10-3 205.4 50 3 89.7 84 115.8 21
48 East Carolina 9-5 204.3 54 6 98.1 68 106.3 36
49 Missouri 8-5 204.3 42 -7 111.0 27 93.2 69
50 Oregon State 8-5 204.1 48 -2 107.3 38 96.8 55
51 Boston College 8-5 204.0 52 1 91.4 81 112.6 25
52 Michigan 5-7 203.9 47 -5 109.5 32 94.5 63
53 Baylor 4-8 201.6 51 -2 106.4 40 95.2 61
54 Central Michigan 12-2 199.1 56 2 102.1 54 97.0 54
55 Kansas 5-7 198.8 55 0 110.0 31 88.8 86
56 Wake Forest 5-7 198.7 58 2 101.0 58 97.7 53
57 Virginia 3-9 198.1 57 0 87.9 92 110.1 29
58 Kentucky 7-6 198.0 53 -5 104.5 43 93.5 66
59 Colorado State 3-9 197.1 59 0 108.9 34 88.1 91
60 California 8-5 196.9 65 5 104.3 44 92.6 71
RANK TEAM RECORD S&P+ LAST WK
 CHANGE OFF S&P+
 RANK DEF S&P+
 RANK
61 Syracuse 4-8 195.6 60 -1 98.9 65 96.7 56
62 Navy 10-4 195.1 74 12 98.7 66 96.4 57
63 Bowling Green 7-6 193.9 63 0 100.0 61 93.9 64
64 Minnesota 6-7 193.7 64 0 89.4 86 104.3 40
65 Fresno State 8-5 193.6 62 -3 104.0 46 89.5 84
66 Louisiana Tech 4-8 192.3 68 2 90.8 82 101.4 45
67 Tulsa 5-7 192.1 69 2 95.8 72 96.2 58
68 Central Florida 8-5 192.0 61 -7 86.6 96 105.4 38
69 UAB 5-7 191.8 72 3 102.0 55 89.8 82
70 Indiana 4-8 191.4 70 0 103.1 51 88.3 90
71 UCLA 7-6 190.5 66 -5 85.3 100 105.3 39
72 Illinois 3-9 190.2 67 -5 99.0 64 91.2 75
73 Colorado 3-9 189.8 71 -2 82.6 105 107.2 34
74 Washington 5-7 189.3 73 -1 98.0 69 91.3 73
75 Northwestern 8-5 189.0 77 2 95.4 74 93.5 67
76 Southern Miss 7-6 187.9 78 2 99.2 62 88.7 88
77 Arizona State 4-8 186.4 75 -2 76.6 112 109.8 30
78 Rutgers 9-4 186.0 87 9 84.7 101 101.3 46
79 NC State 5-7 185.2 79 0 107.1 39 78.1 113
80 Marshall 7-6 185.2 86 6 91.9 80 93.3 68
RANK TEAM RECORD S&P+ LAST WK
 CHANGE OFF S&P+
 RANK DEF S&P+
 RANK
81 Ohio 9-5 184.7 76 -5 82.0 108 102.7 44
82 Utah State 4-8 184.3 80 -2 93.5 78 90.8 76
83 Idaho 7-6 183.9 85 2 103.6 47 80.3 109
84 UNLV 5-7 183.8 84 0 98.4 67 85.5 101
85 Wyoming 7-6 183.7 81 -4 87.7 94 96.0 59
86 Iowa State 7-6 183.5 82 -4 103.3 50 80.2 110
87 Hawaii 6-7 182.6 88 1 101.1 57 81.4 106
88 Buffalo 5-7 182.4 83 -5 94.6 75 87.7 93
89 Temple 9-4 181.5 89 0 95.7 73 85.8 99
90 Maryland 2-10 181.4 91 1 90.2 83 91.3 74
91 Northern Illinois 7-6 180.2 90 -1 91.9 79 88.3 89
92 Florida Atlantic 5-7 180.0 92 0 108.7 35 71.3 120
93 UTEP 4-8 178.6 95 2 97.9 70 80.6 108
94 Memphis 2-10 178.2 96 2 87.7 95 90.5 78
95 Louisville 4-8 178.2 93 -2 89.0 89 89.3 85
96 Vanderbilt 2-10 177.3 94 -2 82.1 107 95.2 62
97 San Diego State 4-8 176.2 99 2 88.4 90 87.8 92
98 Toledo 5-7 176.0 97 -1 100.1 60 75.9 116
99 UL-Monroe 6-6 175.5 98 -1 88.4 91 87.1 96
100 North Texas 2-10 175.5 100 0 99.0 63 76.5 115
RANK TEAM RECORD S&P+ LAST WK
 CHANGE OFF S&P+
 RANK DEF S&P+
 RANK
101 New Mexico 1-11 175.4 103 2 87.9 93 87.5 94
102 SMU 8-5 175.0 106 4 85.3 99 89.7 83
103 Duke 5-7 175.0 102 -1 89.0 88 86.0 97
104 Kansas State 6-6 174.8 101 -3 89.5 85 85.4 103
105 Miami-OH 1-11 172.2 104 -1 80.3 110 91.9 72
106 Akron 3-9 167.8 105 -1 82.3 106 85.5 102
107 Florida International 3-9 167.8 108 1 80.3 111 87.5 95
108 Arkansas State 4-8 167.3 107 -1 81.7 109 85.6 100
109 San Jose State 2-10 165.9 109 0 75.4 114 90.5 79
110 UL-Lafayette 6-6 165.8 110 0 85.6 98 80.2 111
111 Western Michigan 5-7 163.7 111 0 83.6 102 80.1 112
112 Kent State 5-7 163.0 112 0 72.8 115 90.2 81
113 Tulane 3-9 161.0 113 0 82.9 103 78.1 114
114 Ball State 2-10 157.7 114 0 71.8 116 85.8 98
115 Army 4-8 157.1 116 1 68.3 118 88.7 87
116 Western Kentucky 0-12 156.4 115 -1 82.8 104 73.6 118
117 Rice 2-10 151.9 117 0 70.6 117 81.3 107
118 New Mexico State 4-9 149.4 118 0 56.7 119 92.7 70
119 Eastern Michigan 1-11 147.8 119 0 76.5 113 71.3 119
120 Washington State 1-11 125.3 120 0 50.6 120 74.7 117