Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

QUARTERBACKS 2016

Regular season totals, through Week 3

Revised as of 9/27/2016

Quarterbacks are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the quarterback 's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DYAR (and its cousin, YAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

The simple version: DYAR means a quarterback with more total value. DVOA means a quarterback with more value per play.

Effective Yards, listed in red, translate DVOA into a yards per attempt figure. This provides an easy comparison: in general, players with more Effective Yards than standard yards played better than standard stats would otherwise indicate, while players with fewer Effective Yards than standard yards played worse than standard stats would otherwise indicate. Effective Yards are not the best way to measure total value because they are more dependent on usage than DYAR.

Total QBR (listed as just QBR) is a metric created by the ESPN Stats & Information group. Total QBR is based on the by the quarterback on each play, then adjusts the numbers to a scale of 0-100. There are five main differences between Total QBR and Football Outsiders' DVOA metric (with further explanation here):

  • Total QBR incorporates information from game charting, such as passes dropped or thrown away on purpose.
  • Total QBR splits responsibility on plays between the quarterback, his receivers, and his blockers. Drops, for example, are more on the receiver, as are yards after the catch, and some sacks are more on the offensive line than others.
  • Total QBR has a clutch factor which adds (or subtracts) value for quarterbacks who perform best (or worst) in high-leverage situations.
  • Total QBR combines passing and rushing value into one number and differentiates between scrambles and planned runs.
  • Total QBR is not adjusted for strength of opponent.

Further information about the table below:

  • Opponent adjustments are not applied until after Week 4 of the season. Therefore, DVOA and DYAR below are the same as VOA and YAR.
  • Passes total includes sacks and aborted snaps. Both count against a quarterback's value.
  • Intentional clock-stopping spikes are not counted as passes, which may cause completion rate to be different from official NFL stats.
  • Fumbles count the same whether lost to the defense or retained by the offense.
  • DPI lists the number of plays and yards where the quarterback drew Defensive Pass Interference. These plays are incorporated into DVOA and DYAR, but are not included in the totals for Passes or Yards.
  • ALEX represents Air Less EXpected on third downs, the average difference between the length of the quarterback's throw and the distance needed for a new set of downs. The number listed here only includes third downs and is not adjusted for passes thrown away or batted down.

Clicking on a player's name will bring you to his FO player page with advanced stats through the most recent season.

PASSING: Minimum 45 passes, 32 players ranked

Player Team DYAR Rk DVOA Rk QBR Rk Passes Yards EYds TD FK FL INT C% DPI ALEX
M.Ryan ATL 387 1 39.8% 2 92.6 1 109 936 1,140 7 0 0 1 70.9% 1/25 0.9
D.Carr OAK 353 2 34.1% 3 73.6 13 119 863 1,109 5 0 0 1 67.5% 4/64 -0.5
D.Brees NO 305 3 20.5% 9 65.5 23 143 1,012 1,192 8 0 1 1 67.9% 3/51 0.9
M.Stafford DET 295 4 26.1% 7 83.7 5 128 938 1,041 7 0 0 2 67.5% 1/4 -0.3
C.Wentz PHI 283 5 32.5% 4 77.6 10 105 751 909 5 0 0 0 65.3% 1/9 -1.1
D.Prescott DAL 274 6 32.4% 5 90.7 3 101 753 879 1 0 0 0 68.0% 1/6 -0.9
P.Rivers SD 265 7 26.1% 6 80.8 8 105 756 935 5 0 2 0 68.7% 2/19 0.0
J.Garoppolo NE 200 8 40.6% 1 92.4 2 63 486 582 4 1 1 0 70.0% 0/0 2.9
A.Dalton CIN 184 9 11.2% 13 69.9 18 127 880 916 2 0 0 2 65.2% 4/60 -1.5
T.Siemian DEN 172 10 14.2% 10 78.3 9 99 728 781 5 0 0 3 67.0% 5/79 2.1
A.Rodgers GB 166 11 13.1% 12 86.8 4 101 579 777 7 1 1 1 59.1% 5/177 8.3
E.Manning NYG 162 12 10.5% 14 76.3 11 113 893 823 4 3 1 3 71.0% 2/36 4.1
K.Cousins WAS 148 13 6.3% 15 69.4 19 126 961 883 3 1 0 3 64.8% 2/69 0.4
B.Hoyer CHI 143 14 24.0% 8 51.5 30 59 399 522 2 0 0 0 66.1% 0/0 -2.2
R.Wilson SEA 102 15 4.1% 16 60.3 25 109 700 682 2 1 1 1 63.4% 1/18 2.2
S.Bradford MIN 98 16 13.6% 11 65.5 21 64 407 452 3 0 0 0 69.0% 1/12 -2.5
Player Team DYAR Rk DVOA Rk QBR Rk Passes Yards EYds TD FK FL INT C% DPI ALEX
A.Luck IND 67 17 -3.4% 17 81.7 7 133 857 783 6 0 2 2 61.3% 1/0 1.3
A.Smith KC 56 18 -4.3% 18 58.0 27 128 717 743 3 0 2 1 66.9% 1/12 0.5
J.Winston TB 56 19 -5.3% 19 73.6 14 148 889 853 8 0 2 5 60.1% 3/54 3.1
C.Palmer ARI 18 20 -8.9% 20 67.0 20 128 813 692 5 2 0 4 57.6% 1/5 -0.5
R.Tannehill MIA 6 21 -10.4% 21 56.5 28 118 817 660 5 2 1 4 66.4% 1/20 0.1
B.Roethlisberger PIT 3 22 -10.8% 22 81.8 6 124 762 665 6 1 1 4 59.3% 1/19 6.1
M.Mariota TEN 1 23 -11.1% 23 43.4 31 114 685 591 4 0 1 4 62.6% 2/13 0.7
T.Taylor BUF -34 24 -17.9% 24 75.4 12 82 471 357 3 0 0 2 61.8% 0/0 6.1
B.Bortles JAC -81 25 -20.4% 25 65.5 21 136 787 600 5 0 1 6 62.2% 2/18 0.9
B.Gabbert SF -93 26 -25.8% 27 72.9 16 98 526 386 3 0 0 3 55.2% 2/17 -1.6
B.Osweiler HOU -98 27 -24.1% 26 70.8 17 115 644 473 3 0 0 4 59.6% 0/0 4.0
C.Newton CAR -117 28 -27.6% 29 64.3 24 117 726 418 5 0 1 5 60.0% 0/0 2.7
J.Cutler CHI -122 29 -46.3% 32 58.4 26 54 326 115 1 1 1 2 60.9% 2/24 1.2
J.Flacco BAL -126 30 -26.1% 28 73.5 15 126 724 504 3 1 1 4 64.7% 0/0 1.7
C.Keenum LARM -133 31 -32.8% 31 38.5 32 97 522 314 2 0 0 3 53.8% 3/49 -0.2
R.Fitzpatrick NYJ -165 32 -32.0% 30 55.8 29 116 740 413 3 2 0 7 55.8% 4/69 2.3

PASSING, OTHERS: 10-44 passes

Player Team DYAR DVOA QBR Passes Yards EYds TD FK FL INT C% DPI ALEX
S.Hill MIN 60 18.3% 65.2 33 236 247 0 0 0 0 54.5% 0/0 6.7
J.McCown CLE -1 -11.6% 85.7 37 238 181 2 1 0 2 60.6% 0/0 3.4
J.Brissett NE -28 -23.6% 70.0 31 173 143 0 1 0 0 60.7% 3/19 -1.2
C.Kessler CLE -37 -26.9% 61.7 37 224 140 0 1 1 0 63.6% 0/0 -3.5
R.Griffin CLE -96 -65.6% 33.4 29 168 11 0 1 0 1 46.2% 1/6 -0.4

RUSHING: Minimum 2 rushes, 32 players ranked

Player Team DYAR Rk DVOA Rk Runs Yards EYds TD FUM
A.Rodgers GB 43 1 114.9% 1 8 71 98 2 1
C.Newton CAR 40 2 18.8% 14 24 117 186 2 0
D.Prescott DAL 38 3 74.5% 4 7 54 120 2 0
A.Luck IND 25 4 74.0% 5 5 44 67 0 0
J.Brissett NE 24 5 37.6% 10 9 63 90 1 0
B.Bortles JAC 21 6 49.2% 8 7 54 75 0 0
B.Gabbert SF 21 7 13.0% 16 16 76 110 1 0
A.Dalton CIN 20 8 39.0% 9 9 55 76 0 0
B.Osweiler HOU 15 9 50.6% 7 3 29 53 0 0
M.Stafford DET 15 10 52.9% 6 5 48 53 0 0
T.Siemian DEN 13 11 25.2% 11 6 35 58 0 0
J.Flacco BAL 12 12 88.4% 2 2 13 37 1 0
B.Roethlisberger PIT 11 13 83.0% 3 2 21 33 0 0
M.Ryan ATL 8 14 9.9% 17 5 36 44 0 0
R.Tannehill MIA 7 15 -0.2% 18 11 54 63 1 0
D.Carr OAK 7 16 23.0% 12 4 26 30 0 0
Player Team DYAR Rk DVOA Rk Runs Yards EYds TD FUM
P.Rivers SD 5 17 21.7% 13 3 22 24 0 0
R.Griffin CLE 4 18 13.1% 15 4 37 21 0 0
A.Smith KC 3 19 -0.8% 19 5 17 29 1 0
R.Fitzpatrick NYJ 2 20 -8.5% 23 10 50 48 0 1
J.Winston TB 2 21 -6.0% 22 6 31 25 0 0
D.Brees NO 2 22 -3.5% 21 4 14 20 0 0
J.Cutler CHI 1 23 -2.7% 20 2 12 10 0 1
C.Keenum LARM 1 24 -9.3% 25 5 19 19 0 0
J.Garoppolo NE 0 25 -9.2% 24 2 13 10 0 0
K.Cousins WAS 0 26 -13.0% 26 4 25 13 0 0
R.Wilson SEA -4 27 -24.6% 27 9 33 15 0 0
T.Taylor BUF -13 28 -27.0% 28 14 112 32 1 2
C.Wentz PHI -16 29 -64.2% 30 6 22 -15 0 1
M.Mariota TEN -17 30 -64.1% 29 8 52 -16 0 2
EJ Manuel BUF -20 31 -141.1% 31 2 2 -35 0 1
B.Hoyer CHI -28 32 -218.2% 32 3 -3 -55 0 1